This article was downloaded by: [University of Montana] On: 27 August 2013, At: 13:05 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK

Society & Natural Resources: An International Journal Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/usnr20 Agricultural Change in Bumthang, : Market Opportunities, Government Policies, and Climate Change Sangay Wangchuk a & Stephen F. Siebert b a Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation & Environment , Lamai Gompa , Bumthang , Bhutan b College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana , Missoula , Montana , USA Published online: 26 Jul 2013.

To cite this article: Society & Natural Resources (2013): Agricultural Change in Bumthang, Bhutan: Market Opportunities, Government Policies, and Climate Change, Society & Natural Resources: An International Journal, DOI: 10.1080/08941920.2013.789575 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2013.789575

PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE

Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 and-conditions Conditions ofaccessandusecanbefoundathttp://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms­ Society and Natural Resources, 0:1–15 Copyright # 2013 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 0894-1920 print=1521-0723 online DOI: 10.1080/08941920.2013.789575

Agricultural Change in Bumthang, Bhutan: Market Opportunities, Government Policies, and Climate Change

SANGAY WANGCHUK Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation & Environment, Lamai Gompa, Bumthang, Bhutan

STEPHEN F. SIEBERT College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA

Interviews with elderly farmers and a review of government data, policies, and pro­ grams reveal that farmers in the Bumthang District of Bhutan have transitioned from cultivating a diversity of subsistence grains through swidden farming with no external inputs in the 1980s to intensive monocropping of potatoes utilizing fertili­ zers and tractors in 2011. During the same time, household diets changed from locally cultivated buckwheat and to make greater use of purchased . The primary underlying driving forces noted by farmers for the changes were improved road and market access, and government prohibitions against swidden . Farmers also stated that climatic conditions have changed; however, temperature and precipitation data do not reveal significant change, although the variability of mean monthly precipitation has increased. Understanding the site- and time-specific ways in which farmers respond to underlying forces is essential to the identification and development of effective agricultural policies, research, and development.

Keywords cash crops, export markets, , roads, swidden

Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 Agricultural change occurs in response to interactions among many actors and forces, from farmers to national governments and global markets. While farmers ultimately decide what, when, where, and why to cultivate, their decisions are influenced by government policies, market opportunities, climatic conditions, and other underlying driving forces (Geist and Lambin 2001). State policies affect agricultural commodity prices and production quotas, subsidize the production of specific crops and practices, and control export marketing opportunities (Brookfield 2001; Fearnside

Received 19 December 2011; accepted 3 August 2012. We greatly appreciate the assistance and insights provided by cooperating farmers and thank UWICE and CFC for logistical support. This research was supported by a generous grant from the MacArthur Foundation. Address correspondence to Sangay Wangchuk, Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation & Environment, Lamai Gompa, Bumthang, Bhutan. E-mail: wangchuk_s@ yahoo.com

1 2 S. Wangchuk and S. F. Siebert

2008; Geist and Lambin 2001). Government investments in agricultural research and extension and in infrastructure (particularly roads) influence the types and amounts of crops cultivated, agricultural practices, and where and how products are marketed, such as whether production is for household consumption or for domestic or export markets (Chhetri and Easterling 2010; Chomitz and Gray 1996; Geist and Lambin 2001; Salick et al. 2005). Climatic conditions obviously affect agriculture, and temperature, precipitation, and their seasonal distribution and variability are diver­ ging from historic norms around the world (World Meteorological Organization [WMO] n.d.; Zhao and Running 2010). Changing social, economic, political, and ecological forces confront land users with different and often challenging conditions, as well as new opportunities. Specific land user responses are mediated by individual and household-level decisions in light of variable interests, needs and conditions (e.g., labor availability, age, knowledge, experience, access to land, capital and other resources), local cultural traditions, insti­ tutions, religious beliefs, and other factors (Brookfield 2001; Hersberger et al. 2010; Saxena et al. 2005). The importance of underlying driving forces on tropical forest conversion, agricultural intensification, and general land use is well established (Angelsen 1999; Browder et al. 2008; Geist and Lambin 2001; Keyes and McConnell 2005; Thapa and Rasul 2006). Global change, particularly changes in land use and cli­ mate, economic globalization, market integration, technological innovation, and state policies and regulations, often challenges traditional, biologically diverse agroecosys­ tems (Brookfield 2001). However, great uncertainty remains regarding how these forces interact and their site-specific effects on agricultural systems (Zimmerer 2010). Documenting how and why agricultural practices change is essential to under­ standing farmer and household decision-making processes and adaptive capacities (Zimmerer 2010). This is particularly important where rapid and profound changes in historic agricultural practices are occurring, such as in Asia (Cairns 2007; Schmidt-Vogt et al. 2009). In addition, effective policy is dependent upon govern­ ment officials and development actors understanding and anticipating future inter­ actions among agricultural diversity, agroecosystem complexity, and global change (Zimmerer 2010). There is growing recognition that some historic agricultural prac­ tices, specifically swidden, are productive, sustainable, and well adapted to prevailing agroecological conditions (Cairns 2007; Kerkhoff and Sharma 2006). The Inter­ national Centre for Integrated Mountain Development concluded that traditional swidden agricultural practices in the eastern Himalayas, home to approximately Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 400 million people, are not only productive and sustainable, but contribute to the conservation of biological diversity and are preferable to sedentary farming systems (Kerkhoff and Sharma 2006). In this article, we investigate agricultural change in the Bumthang District of Bhutan. Specifically, we document changes in agricultural crops and practices, and associated underlying driving forces as reported by elderly farmers locally considered to be knowledgeable about agriculture in their communities. We then use secondary data, including government statistics, regulations, and policies, changes in infrastruc­ ture and market conditions, climate data, and documented changes in socioeconomic and cultural conditions, to illuminate the underlying driving forces identified by farmers. This approach builds upon the well-established need to understand underly­ ing political and economic influences on land use change (Blaikie 1985; Blaikie and Brookfield 1987; Geist and Lambin 2001; Repetto and Gillis 1988; Zimmerer 2010) and employs the driving force=actor land change (DFA-C) model where the ‘‘focus Agricultural Change Bhutan: Markets, Policies, Climate 3

is neither on driving forces nor on actors nor on the causal chain from driving forces to actors to change, but on the interplay of driving forces and actors’’ (Hersperger et al. 2010). Our approach asks knowledgeable elderly farmers to identify both agri­ cultural changes they have observed over time and the underlying reasons (i.e., driv­ ing forces) for those changes. The District of Bumthang in central Bhutan is well suited for this study because until the 1980s it was economically and politically isolated, had limited road infrastructure, and rural household livelihoods were based on subsistence-oriented swidden and extensive livestock grazing systems that had changed little for centuries (Dukpa et al. 2007; Roder et al. 1992). As such, Bumthang was typical of many areas throughout Bhutan and the eastern Himalayas more generally (Kerkhoff and Sharma 2006; Saxena et al. 2005). However, even more than in these and other developing regions, Bumthang and Bhutan more broadly have experienced exceptionally rapid and profound economic, political, and social–cultural change over the past two dec­ ades. This includes, most notably, transition from subsistence, non-market-based household livelihoods to regionally integrated, cash-crop market economies accompanied by trade liberalization (Chhetri 2010; Dukpa et al. 2007; Wissink 2004); development of primary and secondary roads throughout the country (National Statistical Bureau [NSB] 2010); intensive agricultural research and extension efforts (Ministry of Agriculture [MoA] n.d.; NSB 2010); government prohibition of tra­ ditional swidden farming practices (Dukpa et al. 2007); one of the highest rates of rural to urban migration in Asia (United Nations Development Programme [UNDP] 2009); and a peaceful transition from an absolute monarchy to a parliamentary democracy.

Methods Site The Bumthang District (2610 km2, population 17,000) is located in central Bhutan and encompasses four valleys at altitudes of 2700–4000 m (8850–13,000 ft) (Figure 1). Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013

Figure 1. Location of Bumthang District, Bhutan. 4 S. Wangchuk and S. F. Siebert

The district has been a center of Bhutanese=Buddhist culture for centuries, and has a long and rich tradition of agriculture (Roder et al. 1992). Historically, agriculture in Bumthang involved extensive grazing of yak and cattle, and the cultivation of dozens of local varieties of buckwheat, barley, , and other grains and (e.g., radishes, turnips, etc.) through a productive and sustainable farming system known locally as pangshing. Pangshing is a form of swidden or shifting cultivation that involves 2–3 years of cultivation followed by 6–20 years of a primarily grass fallow that agricultural researchers have concluded was ‘‘the best and=or only approach for the Bhutanese highland farmer to obtain a crop under the given conditions without outside P or N inputs’’ (Roder et al. 1992). Agriculture and livestock rearing com­ prised the primary livelihoods of more than 90% of the population of Bhutan in the early 1990s (Roder et al. 1992), and pangshing was particularly widespread throughout Bumthang District (Dukpa et al. 2007).

Research Methods To identify how and why agricultural practices of individual farmers and their households changed in recent decades we conducted informal interviews=open-ended discussions with five elderly farmers (aged 54–69 years, two females, three males) whom local residents recognize as particularly knowledgeable about historic agricul­ ture practices and recent changes. The sample was not random, but rather an attempt to identify specific actions and behaviors of actors (i.e., farmers) and what they con­ sider to have been important driving forces of agricultural change (DFA-C). The interviewees reside in four different villages, each of which is comprised of several dozen households. Village livelihoods were historically derived from swidden farming and livestock grazing until the 1980s, when a road was completed and access to mar­ kets became available. These conditions are typical of many communities in Bumthang District and Bhutan more generally (Roder et al. 1992; Dukpa et al. 2007). We asked each individual to identify the primary and secondary crops they cul­ tivated in the 1970s–1980s and those cultivated in 2011, the specific cultivation prac­ tices employed in the past (e.g., pangshing) and present (e.g., use of external inputs, machinery, etc.), other changes they have observed in the agricultural sector, specific reasons for changes in crops cultivated or farming practices, a prioritized list of rea­ sons for the changes reported, and how their household secured basic food staples in the 1970s and in 2011. Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 We used Royal Government of Bhutan (RGoB) data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Public Works to document changes reported by elderly farmers in crops, yields, and acreage in Bumthang District from the late 1990s, the earliest records available, to the present. We also reviewed RGoB policies and pro­ grams, domestic and international agricultural research and extension activities, changes in market opportunities, efforts to integrate Bhutan into the global market economy, and demographic information (i.e., underlying driving forces) of potential relevance to the changes reported by the farmers. Lastly, we evaluated climate data between 1994, when regular and reliable meteorological data began to be collected by the Meteorology Department in Bumthang, and 2009. Specifically, we compared maximum-mean and minimum-mean daily temperatures during the months of January (mid-winter), April (spring), and July (mid-summer growing season), and mean precipitation during April (prior to the historic start of the monsoon rainy season), June (during the monsoon rainy season), and October (after the monsoon rains historically ended). We compiled the climate data into three multiyear time periods (1994–1998, 1999–2003, and 2004– 2009) to reduce the effect of normal annual climatic variability and tested for signifi­ cant differences using analysis of variance (ANOVA) t tests.

Results and Discussion Agricultural Changes Reported by Farmers The five farmers interviewed all reported the same major changes in crops and culti­ vation practices over the past 30 years, and identified similar reasons for those changes (Table 1). All five reported that they had shifted from cultivating a high diversity of traditional subsistence grain crops (principally multiple varieties of buckwheat, sweet buckwheat, wheat, and barley) and vegetables (primarily greens) utilizing swidden (i.e., pangshing) with no external inputs or mechanization in the 1970s–1980s to inten­ sive, permanent field cultivation of potatoes, utilizing urea fertilizers and small trac­ tors, with some secondary cultivation of rice, chili, , and cash crop vegetables in 2011. The primary reasons noted by farmers for the changes were (1) the availability of road and market access (most important reason for three farmers, second most important reason for two) and (2) the RGoB ban against swidden farming (most important reason for two farmers, second most important reason for one). Two of the farmers also noted that crop predation by wildlife (deer and pigs) is now much more problematic than in the past, with farmer 4 stating that it precludes cultivating vegetables entirely. All five farmers stated that in the 1970s–1980s they secured all of their annual household food needs (i.e., primary grain staples and sec­ ondary greens and vegetables) from fields they cultivated, while they now reported purchasing all or most of their household foods from income earned through selling potatoes. Lastly, the of all five households has changed from locally grown grains (i.e., buckwheat, barley, and wheat) to purchased rice imported from India. These agricultural changes occurred in just a few decades. All of the farmers recalled swidden farming in their youths and the locations of former fields. As farmer 5 noted, ‘‘Pangshing was what we [all] have been practicing in earlier days growing barley, turnips and little quantities of potatoes.’’ Evidence of former swid­ den fields is visible in the 30- to 40-year-old, even-aged blue pine (Pinus wallichiana) stands that now dominate the hillsides around these villages. Recent studies in one of Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 the villages (Nasiphel) found that the age of the blue pines coincides with the ban against swidden farming (Wangchuk 2011) and that 54 ha of former swidden fields transitioned to dense forest between 1989 and 2010 (Siebert et al. in press).

Changes in Agriculture Conditions Recorded by the RGoB Ministry of Agriculture statistics reveal that the crops cultivated, cropping areas, and yields have changed in Bumthang District in recent years (Table 2). In particular, potato production increased from 28 t in 1999 to 1,060 t in 2007, while yields of irri­ gated rice increased from 32 t to 146 t. Potatoes have been cultivated in Bhutan for approximately 100 years, but their cultivation on a large scale began only about 30 years ago (Roder et al. 2007). Some potatoes are consumed directly by households in Bumthang, but the vast majority is grown as a cash crop for export to India. Government statistics also reveal that chilies, another staple of ,

5 Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013

Table 1. Agricultural changes observed by elderly farmers in Bumthang, Bhutan (1970s–2011)

Age (yrs) and gender (M=F) of respondent

Characteristic #1–54=F #2–60=M #3–64=M #4–61=M #5–69=F

Primary crops 1970s–80s Buckwheat, sweet buckwheat, wheat, barley (multiple varieties) ! Secondary crops 1970s–80s Radish, turnip, potato, beans, assorted vegetables ! Cultivation Systems Swidden (pangshing), fields prepared by hand=livestock, no external inputs, and home gardens (no external inputs) ! Primary crops, 2011 Potato Potato Potato Potato Potato Secondary crops 2011 Rice, chili, vegetablesa , Rice, chili, Rice, chili, None due wildlife Maize, chili, wheat, millet, greens vegetablesa , vegetablesa , predation buckwheat tomato tomato Cultivation Systems Potato—permanent, intensive (urea), mechanized; greens and other vegetables—home gardens (apply fertilizers) ! b

6 Reasons for Changes Road=market Swidden ban, Swidden ban, Road=market Road=market, road=market road=market swidden ban HH food source, 1970s–80s 100% provided through on-farm cultivation, no foods purchased; primary staple: buckwheat, wheat ! HH food source, Purchase all rice Purchase all Purchase all Purchase all rice Purchase all rice; 2011 and cereals rice; some rice and and most other some grains grains and other foods foods cultivated greens cultivated Primary staple: purchased rice imported from India ! Other changesc Climate Climate Climate More crop damage More crop damage by wild animals, by wild animals, climate climate

a Cabbage, broccoli, cauliflower, beans, spinach. b In descending order of importance noted by farmers. c Important, but not major reasons for reported changes in agricultural crops or practices. Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 All Changes most past winter roofs (Dzongkhag farmer monsoon are Farmer While Farmer cultivated that five now climatic several I not water which I to grow and [I] farmers households. of there temperatures think think 2 5 1 farmers grow never in households widely stated: warmer Buckwheat Crop Potato Table of Rice less if observed: noted: and chili Climatic during Area Production Area Area Production Production was rains decades. selected is it Administration change it grow Agricultural in predictable is getting (paddy) cultivation unanimity even is 2. in our stated cultivated not cultivated cultivated cultivated this become getting winter Changes our chili. milder, Conditions area known was crops dreamed throughout Specifically, day that own (t) (t) warmer, not as warmer may and that why unpredictable. practices) Change in with (acres) (acres) (acres) snowfall in they it to place, 2010). a Bumthang reliable would not of would agricultural climatic grow major commercial when the believe they growing with grow Bhutan: but Chilies they less earlier? have district paddy factor now mentioned I time. it conditions in was climatic common, District, is reported. been future production than chilies Markets, also are [rice] young for and Sometimes production frozen 1,781.5 now they the worrisome 1999 31.8 34.7 28.3 conditions small if and 741 that Bhutan 7.8 in are and it it agricultural Policies, commonly were was Bumthang, continues chili but the and changing, rains quantities it of difficult (MoA not growing in grow is cropping that almost associated have the nice Climate anymore. to in seen changes past. crops n.d.) the but for that changed are get Bumthang, season 80 730.8 146.0 1,060 6,901 areas 2007 farmers us drying 61.7 now 344 For warmer cultivated tons we known with If to (i.e., is it can example, get over all in the is longer, on stated crops 2009 wet the the by 7 Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 Min–mean 8 1994–2009 Table April; Bumthang Precipitation by Bumthang, Mean Temperature since Max–mean nificantly maximum to (Table in mean Table the precipitation Note. Note. April, normal farmers wet Local 1994 Table Department, Mean Precipitation Bhutan Jul, 4. annual 3. 5). Note. Values Values monsoon, June, Mean July. Mean among Bhutan. temperature However, and and annual District, are 5. precipitation 1994–2009 Values are limited. precipitation Mean provided that minimum and (14.3) (1.7) (1.2) monthly –3.8 10.8 Jan 44.8 Apr monthly Bumthang, from the Apr, has variability time Bhutan, October, 1994–1998 provided the 1994–1998 annual three increased Reliable Meteorology April; and 109.7 (0.8) (2.7) 17.5 Apr (9.9) are Jun 4.9 period variability precipitation temperatures S. maximum precipitation multiyear Bhutan. multiyear from did Wangchuk precipitation Jun, months and are 806.5 (27.6) 1994–1998 (1.2) (0.6) 14.2 23.4 meteorological 34.7 is Oct Jul (Table June; not multiyear too 1994 cyclically Department, (i.e., (80.0) averages historically and brief differ time (mm) Oct, (11.1) and - (1.9) (1.1) 10.9 57.7 to Apr 4). Jan and standard 5.4 data (mm) 2009 minimum October. to precipitation periods averages 1999–2003 S. patterns. 1999–2003 in significantly assert ± to (13.4) 109.2 data F. (1.5) (1.6) Bumthang, 17.1 Apr Jun Jakar, (multiyear 6.0 716.9 in 1999–2003 SD, corroborate before, Siebert deviation) Jakar, are (Tables significant ± from Furthermore, temperatures (89.3) (43.0) Bumthang (1.1) (0.9) 14.5 21.8 50.1 Oct SD, available Jul records in Bhutan. Bumthang during averages Meteorology the from 3 of the (31.2) and - (1.6) (1.6) 80.4 11.3 Apr Jan climate midst mean 1.8 in did 767.6 Jan, changes Meteorology District, the 2004–2009 4). ± Bumthang 2004–2009 2004–2009 mean (C not District, SD) (46.8) of, precipitation January; (1.2) (0.8) 90.4 0 time In 17.6 Apr Jun change, ) 6.1 Department, (91.3) differ in and addition, reported monthly Bhutan, period Jakar, (65.0) after (0.4) (1.1) 93.1 only 14.3 22.6 Oct Apr, Jul due sig­ Agricultural Change Bhutan: Markets, Policies, Climate 9

Underlying Driving Forces Government Policies and Programs The RGoB adopted numerous regulations, policies and programs that impact agriculture and rural livelihoods over the past 40 years. In 1969, the Bhutan Forestry Act initiated a ban against swidden farming (i.e., pangshing) despite the fact that it was the primary means by which farmers throughout much of the country had cul­ tivated staple food crops for centuries. The ban was adopted on the basis of external advice, particularly that provided by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO), which sought the worldwide elimination of what it deemed a ‘‘destructive’’ and ‘‘backward’’ agricultural system (Mertz et al. 2009). In 1995 the 70th Session of the National Assembly adopted a total, nationwide ban against swid­ den, and by 1997 the practice had been phased out throughout most of the country (Dukpa et al. 2007). The RGoB and international donors, particularly the Swiss Development Agency Helvetas, invested heavily in agriculture in Bumthang District over the past several decades and were instrumental in the development and expansion of potatoes and irrigated rice. The Renewable Natural Resources Research Center (RNR RC), the country’s premier agricultural research center, was established in Bumthang in the 1970s through funds provided by Helvetas and initiated agricultural research and extension activities involving both field crops and livestock. These efforts led to the selection, improvement, and extension of new crops (particularly potatoes and rice), new cultivation and management practices (especially use of fertilizers, pesticides, and tractors), the introduction of new dairy cattle breeds, and the estab­ lishment of a modern cheese- and butter-producing facility in Jakar, Bumthang (RNR RC 2012). Potatoes were grown in Bhutan long before agricultural research and extension efforts began, but became a focus of development interest in the late 1970s. At the request of the RGoB, the International Potato Center assessed opportunities to expand potato cultivation and marketing in 1982 (Scott 1983). Shortly thereafter, the RGoB established the Bhutan Potato Development Program (BPDP) with the twin goals of enhancing household food self-sufficiency and increasing rural incomes. The climate, elevation, and sloping well-drained soils of Bumthang are ideal for potato cultivation, and potatoes are now the most widely cultivated crop in the

Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 district. Indeed, as noted by Roder et al. (2007, 1):

As soon as road access was realized, potatoes became immediately the most important cash crop for the higher regions of Bhutan (e.g., Bumthang) with very fast adoption rates.

The profitability of potatoes has transformed local agricultural practices and household economic conditions. The cultivation of potatoes for export is now the primary livelihood of the five interviewed farmers, which according to them became possible only with the completion of farm roads and market access. The production of a lucrative cash crop also facilitated the transition from historically diverse house­ hold diets based on locally cultivated grains and greens to ones based on purchased rice imported from India. Dependence on potato monocultures is now widespread in Bumthang District. For example, Dorji (2011) found that all households surveyed in 10 S. Wangchuk and S. F. Siebert

four Bumthang villages procured the majority of household income through the sale of potatoes, and they then used the income to purchase rice imported from India. A similar phenomenon has been reported in nearby Tibet where villages with roads cultivate significantly more cash crops and fewer subsistence food crops than com­ munities lacking roads (Salick et al. 2005). The success of potatoes is evident in a 2009 National Biodiversity Center project that sought to reclaim former swidden fields, cultivate and preserve traditional buck­ wheat varieties, and explore new means of processing and marketing buckwheat pro­ ducts in Bumthang. The underlying goals of this project, which is funded by a UNDP-GEF (UNDP Global Environmental Facility) grant, are to conserve traditional crop varieties, maintain cultural traditions, and increase buckwheat consumption due to its high nutritional value (MoA 2009). In 1997, RNR RC initiated on-farm trials of 18 varieties of paddy rice in Bumthang. The goal was to enhance household food sufficiency by reducing the need to purchase rice and to expand cultivation to wet lands not suitable for potatoes. After field trials, researchers selected the Paro-China variety and large-scale cultivation efforts commenced in 11 district villages in 2004. Rice cultivation has proved to be productive and is expanding. As one 65-year-old participating farmer stated with great satisfaction, ‘‘I never thought rice cultivation would work in Bumthang’’ (Wangchuk 2005). Nevertheless, all farmers interviewed in this study and in others (Dorji 2011) rely on purchased rice as their primary food staple. Government policies and programs have long been identified as powerful under­ lying drivers of agricultural, land use, and forest cover change throughout the tropics (Geist and Lambin 2001; Repetto and Gillis 1988). Government investments, regula­ tions, and tax policies, for example, typically have desired and unanticipated effects on agricultural practices, household livelihood strategies, and forest cover, and in some cases what Repetto and Gillis (1988) described as perverse incentives. In the case of Bumthang, RGoB policies and programs had the desired effect of curtailing swidden farming and expanding the cultivation of new cash crops. However, the policies and programs also had unanticipated effects that RGoB officials now con­ sider to be problems, including widespread rural to urban migration, and the loss of historic crops (e.g., buckwheat) and associated traditional ecological knowledge.

Development of Roads and Market Access Expanding and improving roads and bridges has been a major development initiative Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 of the RGoB for several decades. Road construction has been funded by the Japa­ nese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and other international donors and built by Indian laborers. Paved roads now link Bumthang to the capital, Thim­ phu, and to India. All agricultural commodities, both exported and imported, are transported by road. Thimphu and Indian markets can be now reached in a single day from Bumthang. Before the road was constructed in the 1970s–1980s, it took anywhere from 2 to 3 weeks to reach markets and goods were transported on horseback. Investments in roads and bridges have increased since the transition to parlia­ mentary democracy in 2008. The current 10th Five Year plan (2008–2013) seeks to provide farm dirt road access to all communities in the country, including even remote, high-elevation villages in the mountainous north. In 2010 alone, 50 km of new farm roads were constructed in Bumthang District and more than 2200 km were completed nationwide (NSB 2010). Agricultural Change Bhutan: Markets, Policies, Climate 11

The RGoB has further increased market opportunities through bilateral and international trade agreements. Bhutan signed a trade agreement with India in 1949 and India remains the country’s most important trading partner and source of development and military assistance (Wissink 2004). Bhutan applied to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1999, concluded the most recent round of negotiations in 2008, and parliament has been debating the advantages and disad­ vantages of WTO membership ever since (Chhetri 2010). Proponents argue that WTO membership will encourage economic reforms and foreign investment, while opponents worry that adhering to WTO conditions will compromise fundamental pillars of the country’s Gross National Happiness (GNH) development philosophy, in which environmental quality and the maintenance of cultural traditions are valued along with economic growth. Irrespective of whether Bhutan joins the WTO (the application process is currently on hold), farmers in Bumthang now have increased access to both the rapidly growing urban Thimphu and massive Indian markets. This provides opportunities to export agricultural products to new markets, but also exposes Bhutanese farmers to increased competition from large, low-cost Indian producers. The influence of roads and market access on agricultural practices and forest cover is variable and complex. General theory (i.e., von Thu¨nen) and data suggest that throughout the tropics the provision of road and market access results in reduced forest cover and agricultural intensification (Chomitz 2007). For example, a meta-analysis of 152 empirical tropical studies found that extension of road or river transport infrastructure contributed to deforestation in 64% of cases while rapid market growth and commercialization contributed to deforestation in 68% of cases and that the two were typically linked (Geist and Lambin 2001). Increased forest conversion following the development of roads and markets is clearly not the trajectory that has occurred in Bumthang. In Bumthang and elsewhere in Bhutan, historic land-extensive swidden agricultural practices have been abandoned, forest cover has increased, and rural population has declined, while at the same time per­ manent cultivation of export cash crops has increased on a fraction of former culti­ vated fields. The pattern of land abandonment, forest regrowth, and out-migration is one of five possible trajectories of land use change associated with remoteness that have been observed in the tropics (Chomitz 2007). The Bumthang experience differs from this trajectory, at least in part, due to the strong enforcement capacity of the RGoB and the banning of swidden agriculture, and the close proximity of the large Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 and lucrative Indian market for potatoes and other temperate vegetables.

Climate Change In recent decades global temperatures have increased, and temperature and precipi­ tation have exhibited greater variability and more frequent extremes than in previous decades (Zhao and Running 2010). Bhutan and other high-elevation regions in the Himalayas are projected to experience particularly pronounced changes in tempera­ ture and precipitation in coming decades, with adverse effects on crop productivity and household food security (Battisti and Naylor 2009). In 2010 India recorded the warmest year since record-keeping began in 1901 and a warming trend is purported to have begun in the 1970s (Rudolf 2011). One of the longest nearby climate records is available from Tibet, where Liu et al. (2006) found that mean winter day and night time temperatures had increased significantly and the growing season lengthened by 17 days between 1961 and 2003 at 66 weather stations. 12 S. Wangchuk and S. F. Siebert

While climate change may adversely affect current agricultural practices, it also provides farmers with new opportunities. If cool, temperature-limited environments warm, particularly if mean minimum temperatures increase and the growing season lengthen, as Bumthang farmers assert, opportunities to cultivate new crops, such as chilies, expand. It may be possible to cultivate a greater variety of cash crops and, given the improved road system, transport them to growing domestic and international markets. The RGoB and international donors could potentially assist in adaptation to climate change through targeted research and development efforts. For example, government research and extension efforts increased rice yields through location-specific, climate-adapted technologies in Nepal (Chhetri and Easterling 2010).

Cultural Changes None of the farmers interviewed identified any changes in local cultural or religious traditions or other socioeconomic factors as underlying drivers of agricultural change. However, a study in villages that do not yet have road=market access in Zhemgang District to the south of Bumthang found that an important driver of agri­ cultural change was the declining availability of labor (Siebert et al. in press). In this area, rural to urban migration, particularly by young adults, has resulted in insuf­ ficient labor to maintain swidden farming, which persists in this region despite the nationwide ban (Siebert et al. in press). Rural to urban migration is common in Bhu­ tan as it is throughout much of the Himalayas (Saxena et al. 2005). In fact, Bhutan’s urban population is increasing 7% annually, more than double the national popu­ lation growth rate (National Environment Commission [NEC] 2002), and is one of the highest in South Asia (UNDP 2009).

Conclusion Replacing traditional, locally developed, sustainable agricultural practices and asso­ ciated agrobiodiversity (i.e., pangshing) with intensive, petrochemically dependent, export cash crops (i.e., potatoes) tends to reduce household food self-sufficiency and increase social and ecological risk, and may reduce the well-being of rural house­ holds (Zimmerer 2010). However, in Bumthang, intensive cultivation of potatoes for export has thus far greatly increased household incomes, and market prices and demand continue to be robust. Nevertheless, export market demands and prices Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 are beyond the control of farmers or the RGoB and tend to fluctuate. Furthermore, potatoes are susceptible to blight, nematodes, and other pathogens, and require imported external inputs (i.e., fertilizers and pesticides) for continuous cultivation (FAO 2008); Bumthang potato farmers utilize urea and many apply fungicides to control blight (BPDP 2008). Social and ecological risks tend to increase while social and ecological resilience (i.e., the capacity to adapt to unforeseen but inevitable social, economic, or ecological change) decline when households transition from traditional agricultural systems with high agrobiodiversity to intensive, cash crop farming of few species (Berkes et al. 2003; Zimmerer 2010). Resilience theory and associated empirical studies suggest that social and ecological risks are minimized and resilience maximized in agricultural systems characterized by high social and ecological diversity, memory, and redundancy (Berkes et al. 2003). Historic agricultural practices in Bumthang incorporated many different crops and varieties (i.e., diversity) on multiple parcels (i.e., redundancy) in response Agricultural Change Bhutan: Markets, Policies, Climate 13

to the highly variable topographic, climatic, and edaphic conditions typical of mountain environments. Traditional ecological knowledge and practices were shared widely across generations (i.e., memory), and there was little reliance on external inputs or markets. Intensive potato farming is clearly very different. In an era of increasingly rapid and unpredictable social (e.g., out-migration), economic (e.g., fluctuating market prices and demands), political (e.g., parliamentary elections and government policies), and ecological (e.g., climate) change, managing risk and maintaining resilience are important to maintain adaptive capacity. Future RGoB policies and regulations in the agriculture, marketing, and trans­ portation sectors are likely to evolve in light of recent political changes. Bhutanese politicians and the public at large appear to have embraced democracy following the transition from an absolute monarchy in 2008. This includes expectations by constituents that elected officials provide economic growth and development; demands for roads and electrification are particularly strong. Constituent expecta­ tions, which are increasingly urban, and associated policy and development responses will continue to influence rural livelihoods and agricultural practices. Despite the power of underlying driving forces, farmers respond to government policies, market signals, and changing environmental conditions in idiosyncratic and site- and time-specific ways (Brookfield 2001; Zimmerer 2010). Household labor and capital availability, the quantity and quality (i.e., potential productivity) of land, agricultural knowledge and experience, commitment to cultural traditions, and degree of risk aversion all affect individual and household level decisions. Agriculture has been a cornerstone of culture in Bumthang for centuries, current cash crop farm­ ing is highly profitable, and farming is likely to remain important as modernization and intensification provide new opportunities. The rapid and profound social, economic, and political changes in Bumthang agricultural practices may be accentuated by changing climatic conditions. While the magnitude of potential climate change and its effects on agricultural production are unknown, the RGoB has pledged that Bhutan will be carbon neutral by 2020, has invested heavily in renewable energy, seeks to offset greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration in forests, and recently convened a regional summit to identify potential adaptive responses. Understanding the complex and dynamic economic, social, political, and environmental drivers of agricultural change and how households are affected by and respond to these forces is a daunting task, but essential to the identification and development of effective agricultural policies, Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 research, and development.

References

Angelsen, A. 1999. Agricultural expansion and deforestation: Modeling the impact of population, market forces and property rights. J. Dev. Econ. 58:185–218. Battisti, D., and R. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unpre­ cedented seasonal heat. Science 323:240–244. Berkes, F., J. Coldring, and C. Folke, eds. 2003. Navigating social-ecological systems. New York: Cambridge University. Press. Bhutan Potato Development Program. 2008. Bhutan potato story. www.bhutanmajestictra­ vel.com/news/2008/bhutan-potato-story.html (accessed 15 January 2012). Blaikie, P. 1985. The political economy of soil erosion in developing countries. New York: Longman Scientific and Technical. 14 S. Wangchuk and S. F. Siebert

Blaikie, P., and H. Brookfield. 1987. Land degradation and society. New York: Methuen Press. Brookfield, H. 2001. Exploring agrodiversity. New York: Columbia University Press. Browder, J., M. Pedlowski, R. Walker, R. Wynne, P. Summers, A. Abad, N. Becerra- Cordoba, and J. Mil-Homens. 2008. Revisiting theories of frontier expansion in the Brazilian Amazon: A survey of the colonist farming population in Rondonia’s post-frontier, 1992–2002. World Dev. 36:1469–1492. Cairns, M., ed. 2007. Voices from the forest. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future. Chhetri, D. 2010. Government to decide on WTO soon. Bhutan Today. www.bhutantoday.bt/ ?p=2585 (accessed 23 January 2012). Chhetri, N., and W. Easterling. 2010. Adapting to climate change: Retrospective analysis of climate technology interaction in the rice-based farming systems of Nepal. Ann. Am. Geogr. 100:1156–1176. Chomitz, K. 2007. At loggerheads? Agricultural expansion, poverty reduction, and environment in the tropical forests. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Chomitz, K., and D. Gray. 1996. Roads, land use, and deforestation: A spatial model applied to Belize. World Bank Econ. Rev. 10:487–512. Dorji, W. 2011. Opportunities and constraints to community forests for local income generation and livelihoods: A case study of four community forest in Bumthang District, Bhutan. MS thesis, University of Montana, Missoula. Dukpa, T., P. Wangchuk, Rinchin, K. Wangdi, and W. Roder. 2007. Changes and innova­ tions in the management of shifting cultivation land in Bhutan. In Voices from the forest, ed. M. Cairns, 692–699. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future. Dzongkhag Administration. 2010. Dzongkhag at a glance. Jakar, Bumthang, Bhutan: Author. FAO. 2008. Potato pest and disease management. http://www.potato2008.org/en/potato/ IYP-5en.pdf (accessed 23 January 2012). Fearnside, P. 2008. The roles and movements of actors in the deforestation of Brazilian Amazonia. Ecol. Society 13(1):23. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art23 Geist, H., and E. Lambin. 2001. What drives tropical deforestation? LUCC Report Series No. 4. Louvain, Belgium: University of Louvain. Hersberger, A., M. Gennaio, P. Verburg, and M. Burgi. 2010. Linking land change with driving forces and actors: Four conceptual models. Ecology and Society. http://www. ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss4/art1 Kerkhoff, E., and E. Sharma. 2006. Debating shifting cultivation in the eastern Himalayas. Kathmandu, Nepal: ICIMOD. Keyes, E., and W. McConnell. 2005. Global change and the intensification of agriculture in the tropics. Global Environ. Change Hum. Policy Dimens. 15:320–337. Liu, S., S.-Y. Yin, X. Shao, and N Qin. 2006. Temporal trends and variability of daily maximum and minimum, extreme temperature events, and growing season length over

Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013 the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2003. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D19109. doi:101029=2005JD006915. Mertz, O., C. Padoch, J. Fox, R. Cramb, S. Leisz, N. Lam, and T. Vien. 2009. Swidden change in Southeast Asia: Understanding causes and consequences. Hum. Ecol. 37:259–264. Ministry of Agriculture. 2009. Report on buckwheat activities carried out in Bumthang Dzongkhag in the year 2009–2010. Thimphu, Bhutan: Ministry of Agriculture. Ministry of Agriculture. n.d. http://www.apfanews.com/media/agricultural-statistics­ 2005-II.pdf (accessed 15 January 2012). National Environment Commission. 2002. Bhutan—The road from Rio; National assessment of Agenda 21 in Bhutan. Royal Government of Bhutan. Bangkok, Thailand: Thai Graphic and Print Co. Ltd. National Statistical Bureau. 2010. Statistical year book of Bhutan–2010. Thimphu, Bhutan: Royal Government of Bhutan. Renewable Natural Resources Research Center. 2012. About RC Jakar background. http:// www.moa.gov.bt/rcjakar/programmes/horticulture.php (accessed 23 January 2012). Agricultural Change Bhutan: Markets, Policies, Climate 15

Repetto, R., and M. Gillis, eds. 1988. Public policies and the misuse of forest resources. New York: Cambridge University Press. Roder, W., O. Calvert, and Y. Dorji. 1992. Shifting cultivation systems practiced in Bhutan. Agrofor. Systems 19:149–158. Roder, W., N. Nidup, and W. Wangdi. 2007. Marketing bhutanese potato—Experiences, challenges and opportunities. CIP=CFC=BPDP Working Paper number 4. Thimphu, Bhutan: Bhutan Potato Development Program. Rudolf, J. 2011. On our radar: India’s warmest year on record. New York Times, January 14. Salick, J., Y. Yongpin, and A. Amend. 2005. Tibetan land use and change near Khawa Karpo, Eastern Himalayas. Econ. Bot. 59:312–325. Saxena, K., R. Maikhuri, and K. Rao. 2005. Changes in agricultural biodiversity: Implications for sustainable livelihood in the Himalaya. J. Mountain Sci. 2:23–31. Schmidt-Vogt, D., S. Leisz, O. Mertz, A. Heinimann, T. Thiha, P. Messerli, M. Epprecht, P. Van Cu, V. Kim Chi, M. Hardiono, and T. Dao. 2009. An assessment of trends in the extent of swidden in Southeast Asia. Hum. Ecol. 37:269–280. Scott, G. 1983. Marketing bhutan’s potatoes. Lima, Peru: International Potato Center. Siebert, S., J. Belsky, S. Wangchuk, and J. Riddering. In press. The end of swidden in Bhutan: Impli­ cations for forest cover and biodiversity. In Shifting cultivation and environmental change: Indigenous people, agriculture, and forest conservation, ed. M. Cairns. London: Earthscan. Thapa, G., and G. Rasul. 2006. Implications of changing national policies on land use in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh. J. Environ. Manage. 81:441–453. United Nations Development Programme. 2009. Bhutan, Human development report 2009: Migration leads to development. http://www.undp.org.bt/Human-Development­ Report-2009-Migration-leads-to-development.htm (accessed 3 March 2011). Wangchuk, K. 2005. Bumthang: Paddy cultivation. Kuensel. RAOnline: 2000–2010. Wangchuk, S. 2011. Fuelwood consumption and production in alpine Bhutan: A case study of resource use and implications for conservation and management in Wangchuck Centennial Park. MS thesis, University of Montana, Missoula. Wissink, T. 2004. The impact of trade liberalization on agriculture in Bhutan. Paper presented at the 18th European Conference on Modern South Asian Studies, 6–9 July 2004, Lund, Sweden. World Meteorological Organization. n.d. Press release no. 972. www.wmo.int/pages/media­ centre/press_releases Zhao, M., and S. Running. 2010. Drought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009. Science 329:940–943. Zimmerer, K. 2010. Biological diversity in agriculture and global change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 35:137–166. Downloaded by [University of Montana] at 13:05 27 August 2013