PROBABLE EU-UK RELATIONSHIP AFTER BREXIT PERSPECTIVES OF GERMANY, FRANCE, ITALY, SPAIN AND POLAND KAROLINA BOROŃSKA-HRYNIEWIECKA, ELŻBIETA KACA, SEBASTIAN PŁÓCIENNIK, PATRYK TOPOROWSKI THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROBABLE EU-UK RELATIONSHIP AFTER BREXIT PERSPECTIVES OF GERMANY, FRANCE, ITALY, SPAIN AND POLAND Editors: Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka, Sebastian Płóciennik Authors: Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka, Elżbieta Kaca, Sebastian Płóciennik, Patryk Toporowski Warsaw, May 2016 © Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych, 2016 Contributors (data collection): David Tschorr, Emilia Borko and Joanna Gniadek Translation Zbigniew Szymański Editor Brien Barnett Technical editor and cover design Dorota Dołęgowska Cover photo Dorota Dołęgowska 978-83-64895-81-4 (pb) 978-83-64895-82-1 (pdf) Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych ul. Warecka 1a, 00-950 Warszawa phone (+48) 22 556 80 00, fax (+48) 22 556 80 99
[email protected], www.pism.pl Contents Executive Summary . 5 Conclusions . 7 Introduction . 12 1. EU-Third Country Relations: Current Models . 17 1.1. Norway Model . 17 1.2. Switzerland Model . 18 1.3. Turkey Model . 19 1.4. Canada Model . 20 2. Germany . 21 2.1. Economic Ties . 22 2.1.1. Trade in Goods and Services . 22 2.1.2. Capital Links . 23 2.1.3. Migration . 25 2.2. Economic Policy Preferences . 26 2.2.1. Regulatory Policy . 26 2.2.2. International Trade . 27 2.2.3. Redistribution in the EU . 27 2.3. Approach to Political Integration . 28 2.4. Preferred Model of the EU-UK Relationship after Brexit . 29 3 . France . 30 3.1. Economic Ties . 30 3.1.1. Trade in Goods and Services . 30 3.1.2.