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The Online Travel Update: COVID-19 Edition

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The Online Travel Update: COVID-19 Edition RBC Capital Markets, LLC Mark S.F. Mahaney Benjamin Wheeler (Analyst) (Associate) (415) 633-8608 (415) 633-8527 [email protected] [email protected] Shweta Khajuria, CFA Spencer Tan, CFA (Senior (Analyst) Associate) (415) 633-8631 (415) 633-8712 [email protected] [email protected] September 27, 2020 The Online Travel Update: COVID-19 Edition We conducted our 6th Annual U.S. & 4th Annual UK Online Travel survey. We also look at a series of key industry data points to provide an update on the shape of recovery in the various Online Travel segments, similar to our Mobile Matters series for Ridesharing. To summarize, Online Travel has been the single worst impacted sector in our coverage and we characterize the pace of recovery as glacially gradual. Note that we are downgrading EXPE in conjunction with this report, based in part on our survey EQUITY RESEARCH results. COVID-Specific Takeaways From U.S. and UK Internet User Surveys: 1) A Multi-Year Recovery – 49% of U.S. and 55% of UK respondents expect to return to pre-COVID leisure travel frequency in 2021 with another ~33% saying 2022 or later. These results are consistent with our BKNG and EXPE models that call for Gross Bookings to return to 2019 levels in 2023+; 2) Alternative Accommodations Are Seeing A COVID-Boost – We saw record-high increases in AA adoption to 62% in both countries. Key Takes From 6th Annual 3,500 U.S. Internet User Survey: 1) Airbnb Now The Leading Planning & Booking Destination with 37% (+6pts Y/Y) and 26% (+6pts Y/Y) of travelers research and booking on the property, respectively. Airbnb also had the highest Selection and Price ratings with the highest satisfaction scores among the top 5 travel sites. 2) Expedia Sites Remain The Collective Leader, Though They Are Ceding Share as Brand Expedia drops to the #3 most popular site for planning trips vs. #1 in every year prior. Including all of its owned sites (Hotels.com, Travelocity, HomeAway/Vrbo, etc.), Expedia had 128%/76% selection as a travel planning/booking destination vs. 190%/107% in 2016. 3) Booking.com Gaining Share in the U.S. – Booking.com was the largest sequential gainer as a site for planning and booking trips up 7pts Y/Y in both categories. As an AA site, Booking.com increased a group-high +11pts Y/Y, making it the #3 most popular site and ahead of Brand Expedia. 4) Metasearch Becoming Less Relevant – Google hit record-high levels of travel planning selection while TripAdvisor and Kayak hit record-lows. 5) Airbnb is THE Leading AA Provider – Of those respondents who had stayed in AA, 50% of respondents reported using Airbnb in the last year with 2x share of #2 HomeAway/Vrbo. 6) Social Media More Important to Online Travel Than Previously Thought – For the first time we included Facebook and Instagram as research & planning options and found 11%and 8% selection, respectively, making FB properties collectively more popular for travel planning than each Travelocity, HomeAway/ Vrbo, Priceline, Kayak, Trivago, Orbitz and Hotwire.com. Key Takes From 4th Annual 2,300 U.K. Internet User Survey: 1) Booking.com The Clear Travel Planning & Booking Leader – 57% of respondents used Booking.com to plan (vs. 55% in ’19) and 48% used it to book (vs. 44% in ’19) – both levels over 20pts higher than the #2 ranked platform. Booking.com’s 4pt gain as a site to book was the second highest of all surveyed sites it was (unsurprisingly) selected as providing the best Selection, Ease of Use and & Price and gained share in each of these categories. 2) Airbnb Becoming Increasingly Competitive as a Top Online Planning & Booking Site – Airbnb was the largest single-year and multi-year gainer as a site to plan (+6pts Y/Y, +20pts vs. '16) and as a site to book (+6pts Y/Y, +16pts vs. '16) and is now the #2 ranked property in both categories. Airbnb also gained share in terms of offering the Best Prices, Selection and Ease of Use and now ranks top three in each of these categories. 3) Expedia & Sites Largely Consistent –Brand Expedia gained 2pts of share as a site to plan and book to 32% and 19% making it the #4 and #3 ranked destination, respectively. Including its owned properties, cumulative selection was 86% (flat vs. 2019) as a site to plan travel. 4) Metasearch Becoming Less Relevant – Google hit record-high levels of selection as a destination to plan travel, while TripAdvisor and Trivago reached record-lows. 5) Airbnb and Booking.com – The Top Two AA Sites In The U.K. with 44% (+3pts Y/Y) choosing Airbnb as the AA option they use most often, while 43% (+4pts Y/Y) chose Booking.com, and both Airbnb and Booking.com were the largest sequential share gainers, ending with ~2x the market share of #3 TripAdvisor. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). Disseminated: Sep 27, 2020 12:21ET; Produced: Sep 27, 2020 12:21ET All values in USD unless otherwise noted. For Required Conflicts Disclosures, see Page 33. The Online Travel Update: COVID-19 Edition Table of contents Section I: COVID-Specific Takeways From RBC’s Annual U.S. & UK Online Leisure Travel Surveys ................................................................................................................... 3 Section II: Takeways From RBC’s 6th Annual U.S. Online Leisure Travel Survey ............. 7 1. Online Penetration Rising For Travel Planning and Booking In the U.S. ......................... 8 2. Airbnb, Google and Brand Expedia: Top Three Traveler Choices To Research/Plan Their Trips.............................................................................................................................. 9 3. Hotels and Alternative Accommodations Increasingly Seen As Substitutes ................. 12 4. As Alternative Accommodation Destinations, Airbnb is Dominant, Expedia & HomeAway/VRBO a Solid Number Two and Booking Gains Material Share ............. 15 5. Online Experiences Penetration is Likely Lowest of Travel Segments .......................... 16 Section III: Takeways From RBC’s 4th UK Online Leisure Travel Survey ....................... 18 1. UK Online Penetration Largely Consistent For Travel Planning & Booking ................... 19 2. Booking.com By Far The Top UK Online Travel Destination .......................................... 19 3. Hotels and Alternative Accommodations Increasingly Seen As Substitutes ................. 22 4. Booking.com & Airbnb Are Clear Leaders In the UK Alternative Accommodations Market ........................................................................................................................ 24 5. Ramping Online Experiences Penetration in the UK ..................................................... 25 Section IV: Recent Data Points in Online Travel ........................................................... 27 September 27, 2020 2 The Online Travel Update: COVID-19 Edition Section I: COVID-Specific Takeways From RBC’s Annual U.S. & UK Online Leisure Travel Surveys Online Travel has been the most negatively impacted sector in our coverage space by COVID- 19, with both EXPE and BKNG experiencing over 100% Y/Y declines in Gross Bookings (thanks to cancellations) at their absolute worst periods in late March and early April. The Ridesharing and Online Advertising sectors were also materially negatively impacted, but not to the same degree as Online Travel. Our U.S. and UK Travel surveys, collected in mid- September, certainly reflect this reality. In this section we handpick several data points from our U.S. and UK survey results that reflect the impact that COVID-19 has had on Online Travel. We believe maybe the most important determinant of BKNG’s and EXPE’s stock performance is the shape of recovery of Online Travel. Looking at the survey data, the bulk of respondents expect their frequency of leisure travel to return to pre-COVID levels sometime in 2021: 49% in the U.S. and 55% in the UK. Just 15% and 10% of U.S. and UK respondents, respectively, say that their leisure travel frequency has already returned to those levels. Meanwhile, approximately one third of respondents in both countries believe that their leisure travel frequency won’t return to 2019 levels until 2022 or later. Importantly, 3% or less of respondents expect their travel frequency to never return to pre-COVID levels, which is consistent with our view that travel will eventually return in full strength. Further, we believe these results are consistent with our expectation that BKNG doesn’t achieve 2019 Gross Bookings levels until 2023 and our current estimate for EXPE’s Gross Bookings in 2023 are presently ~7% below 2019 levels. Exhibit 1: When do you expect the frequency of your leisure travel to return to pre-COVID (i.e., 2019) levels? 60% 55% 49% 50% 40% 33% 32% 30% 20% 15% 10% 10% 3% 2% 0% It already has 2021 2022 or later Never U.S. UK Source: RBC Capital Markets, SurveyMonkey (U.S. n=2298, UK n=1619) Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, BKNG, EXPE and Airbnb have all given evidence that Alternative Accommodations (AA) as a category have outperformed Hotels. Specifically, BKNG shared that 40% of the new Bookings in Q2 came from AA vs. our estimate of 20-25% pre- COVID. On EXPE’s Q2:20 EPS, the company said that Vrbo, their AA division, has been the key driver of the recovery since the March/April trough. And finally, Airbnb disclosed that on July 8th they achieved over 1MM booked room nights for the first time since March 3rd. We hosted Airbnb on 05/28 where they discussed recent trends (note here). One key investor question for the OTAs is how long this relative preference for AA vs. Hotels is and if it marks a permanent shift in consumer preferences. Probably the most surprising finding from our survey results is in Exhibit 2: ~60% of respondents in the U.S. and UK said their preference for Hotels vs. AA hasn’t been affected by COVID-19, but 25-27% of respondents said that they now prefer Hotels more vs.
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