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Soviet and East European Macroeconomic Databank

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Soviet and East European Macroeconomic Databank FINAL REPORT TO NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN RESEARC H TITLE : SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN MACROECONOMIC DATABAN K AUTHOR : Jan Vanous CONTRACTOR : Center For Strategic And International Studie s Georgetown University PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR : Thane Gustafso n Jan Vanous COUNCIL CONTRACT NUMBER : 800-0 1 DATE : May, 198 8 The work leading to this report was supported by funds provided b y the National Council for Soviet and East European Research . Th e analysis and interpretations contained in the report are those o f the author . Executive Summar y This project involved the collection, processing an d organization of data relating to the macroeconomic performance o f the major countries of Eastern Europe . The databank provides, t o the extent possible, a consistent set of time series fo r Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania , the Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia . The data are typicall y complete for the period 1960-85, although some series begin a s early as 1950 . Official national data has served as the primar y source of information in most cases . ) This databank construction effort has resulted in th e generation of eight datasets for each of the countries . The dat a sets include : - gross industrial output - gross agricultural outpu t - investment and capital stoc k - employment - Net Material Product account s - Gross National Product account s - foreign trade flows - energy production, trade and apparent consumption . The tables of data are annotated to indicate sources of data , discontinuities terms of sectoral classification or price base , and a brief statement of the methodology, if applicable, used t o bridge the discontinuities and arrive at a series consistent ove r time . The databank will be available for distribution to th e scholarly community via computer diskettes, on hard copy and through on-line access on the SOVSET' computer network. Inquirie s should be addressed to : The Director, Soviet Studies Program ; Center for Strategic and International Studies ; Suite 400 ; 1800 K Street, NW ; Washington, DC 20006 . FINAL REPOR T CONSTRUCTION OF A SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN MACROECONOMIC DATABAN K Activities Undertake n This project involved the collection, processing an d organization of a body of data relating to the macroeconomi c performance of the Soviet Union and the major nations of Easter n Europe . (Note that the proposed research included the Sovie t Union and six East European countries--Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia , East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania--while in the course o f the research data for Yugoslavia were also collected and pro- cessed) . The objective of the effort has been to make these dat a available and more readily usable (in terms of documentation , comparability and physical accessibility) to a wide range o f researchers concerned with the historical and current developmen t of these economies . The effort was proposed in recognition o f the lack of incentives for individual academic scholars t o undertake data work and the limitations of the current state o f this data on research and the ability to attract new, youn g scholars into the field of research on the East European econ- omies . The capability of making these data readily available t o scholars through microcomputer networks or through the distribu- tion of magnetic media readable by microcomputer argued fo r the undertaking of such a task at this time as a major contribution to research on this area . A brief description of the kinds of obstacles to such a dat a 1 effort is useful here to illustrate the nature of the activitie s which were involved in meeting the objectives of the project . Because the aim was to provide, to the extent possible, a consistent set of time series starting as early as possible (som e as early as 1950), and because we chose to rely on officia l national data as the primary source of information in most cases , the process of gathering and processing the data involved most o f the numerous problems commonly encountered by individual scholar s of these economies . Over this lengthy period, i, e ., 1950 o r 1960 through 1985, the central statistical agencies of thes e countries have reclassified economic activities according t o branch of industry and sector of the economy and have als o altered base year prices for calculation of comparable price dat a frequently . There is seldom, if ever, adequate documentation explaining the exact nature of the reclassification or adequat e publication of revised figures for earlier years reflecting th e new price base or branch/sectoral classification system . Onl y one of these countries —Czechoslovakia--has undertaken to provid e a volume of statistics which provide annual time series fo r economic data covering the full period addressed here in whic h the data for all years are presented in terms of the most recen t price base and aggregation scheme . This was the result of a special project and was not regarded as a natural function of th e Czechoslovak state statistical office . This view is apparentl y shared across Eastern Europe and no other special projects hav e come to our attention . This situation explains the ver y considerable effort required in constructing the extensiv e 2 databank for this project . The following activities were involved in the constructio n of the database : • Data collection . Because of the problems in the coverag e offered by individual statistical handbook issues a s indicated above, it was necessary to obtain many years ' worth of these annuals to provide for maximum numbers o f observations in the final time series . In addition , specialized statistical materials, usually published on a less than annual basis, were consulted when necessary t o fill in missing observations or explain/adjust for apparen t discontinuities in reporting . • Data processing . Based on an initial survey of the availa - bility of data for each economy in each of the anticipate d categories of statistics to be presented, it was necessar y to design a standard disaggregation scheme which would b e more-or-less comparable across countries . While mor e detailed breakdowns, if available, were not discarded, th e standard disaggregation was to be regarded as a minimum . Accordingly, after the data were entered into the skeleta l electronic spreadsheet it was necessary to enter formula s into the spreadsheet to group subcategories into th e appropriate cells of the standard categories as well a s enter formulas to bridge data series across classificatio n and price-base changes . • Documentation . After decisions were made about th e synthesis of data from selected statistical materials an d 3 the bridging of changes in classification and price base, i t was necessary to describe this process in the documentatio n of the databank, typically provided in footnotes to th e series of tables . · Preparation for Electronic Dissemination . eWhile th electronic spreadsheet software proved ideal for th e entering and manipulation of the data, spreadsheet program s store information in ways that are often incompatible wit h systems designed for other purposes . Thus it was necessar y to translate the databank files from the spreadsheet forma t to the data interchange format usable for uploading the dat a to another system . The data, in turn, were then mad e available to the SOVSET' network (an electronic communica- tions facility for Soviet and East European specialists) . The data were delivered for dissemination in phases a s the collection and processing of particular categories o f indicators (such as gross industrial output) across coun- tries was completed . Accomplishment s The databank construction effort has resulted in th e generation of eight data sets for the eight countries of con- cern . These data sets are being made available to other scholar s via the SOVSET' computer network . They are accessible both i n the form of text files (appropriate for incorporation int o research papers) and in the form of data interchange format (dif ) 4 files (appropriate for incorporation into still other spreadshee t files), together with appropriate annotation . The various dat a sets include : • gross industrial output, both official and Western recon - structed series for gross output for individual branches o f industry and appropriate subtotals to provide for cross - country comparability of aggregation schemes, where possi- ble . (In current prices and in constant prices or volum e index form if available) . • gross agricultural output, total and disaggregated into the . crop and livestock products branches, where possible . • investment and capital stock, for the sectors of th e national economy with the industrial sector disaggregate d further into its branches . The data are provided in curren t prices and constant prices or volume index form if avail - able . • employment, by sector of the national economy with furthe r disaggregation of the industrial sector into its individua l branches, where possible . • energy production, trade and apparent consumption , individual fuels in the original physical units in which they wer e reported (e .g ., brown coal briquettes in thousand tons) an d energy balances disaggregated by fuel-type (coal, oil, ga s and primary electric power) in energy-equivalent term s (e .g ., production of all coal in thousand barrels per day o f oil equivalent) . • foreign trade flows, imports and exports reported separatel y 5 by trading region (socialist and non-socialist) and b y commodity composition, if available, according to Standar d International Trade Classification and/or CMEA Trad e Nomenclature and/or national foreign trade commodit y classification . If possible, trade flows are reported i n national devisa currency and rubles for socialist trade an d dollars for non-socialist trade, all in current prices . • Net Material Product accounts, aggregate output by secto r of origin and domestic utilization by category of final use , in current and constant prices, where available, including a reconciliation of net material product produced and used .
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