www.africa-confidential.com 20 April 2001 Vol 42 No 8 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 3 ZIMBABWE Sniping at the President More of Mugabe The President’s insistence that he will fight the next election Does President Mbeki risk being ousted by his own party? Will he surprises few and worries almost everyone be challenged for the ANC The President’s indecision is final. President Robert Mugabe’s announcement on 17 April that he leadership at the end of 2002? A will contest the next presidential election as his party’s flagbearer has resolved nothing (AC Vol 41 strange declaration by Deputy President , who No 25). Many doubt that he has the support within his party to carry it through. His announcement suddenly denied that he planned was met with a deafening silence from senior figures in the ruling Zimbabwe African National to challenge Mbeki for the party Union- and a predictable endorsement from loyalist Stalin Mau Mau. Mugabe’s leadership, has fuelled rumours. ‘decision’ is a blow to those ZANU-PF strategists who have been telling South African and Western officials that Mugabe should be allowed a graceful exit and a soft landing. Those options are now MOZAMBIQUE 4 blocked. Even ultra-loyalist Information Minister Jonathan Moyo was confidently telling Western correspondents at the Davos Summit in Switzerland in February that Mugabe would definitely retire Talks break down before the next elections. Mugabe’s announcement has rekindled suspicions that he will call an early presidential election Afonso Dhlakama, President Renamo, left after five hours of in July or August, which he will win by hook or crook, and then stand down to allow his chosen talks with President Chissano on successor to take over: Emmerson Mnangagwa, as parliamentary Speaker, has been aloof from 29 March, handing over a letter most of the partisan confrontations. That might just explain the current campaign of political terror prepared in advance. Having not in the towns by ZANU-PF and the ‘war veterans’. Whenever Mugabe and ZANU-PF decide to hold met for over a year, the two men the presidentials, the stakes will be high. Mugabe and his associates, aware that electoral defeat began talking in December and continued in January but each, could bring imprisonment or worse, have abandoned all pretence of legality and economic rationality. under pressure from hardliners in The land occupations have run out of steam pending the promised eviction of white commercial his party, wanted the other to yield. farmers in mid-year to allow new settlers time to plant next season’s crops. The focus has shifted to the cities and the mines. 5 Veterans target business and unionists The cock crows In the first week of April, several small industrial businesses were targeted by Mugabe’s political Born-again Christian President storm-troopers, the war veterans. They say they are supporting the workers against both the Chiluba arrived back in Lusaka for employers and the trades unions, whom they accuse of selling out to the opposition Movement for Easter to denounce the ‘ministerial Democratic Change (MDC). Gangs of veterans have gone into factories, threatening and beating treachery’ against him in biblical managers and forcing them to reinstate workers who have lost their jobs. Kangaroo courts operate terms. He compared those ministers at ZANU-PF’s Harare headquarters, where errant managers are brought to be disciplined. who had been campaigning against his third term bid to Peter’s denial of The Falcon Mines group had planned to close three loss-making gold mines, hit by high inflation Christ. While Chiluba was abroad, and the fixed exchange rate: first it was threatened by veterans, then promised a rescue package by 60 MPs signed a petition opposing the government. The mines remain open but the government has no money to subsidise them. another rebirth. Managers are terrified. ‘What makes it so awful’, says one whose business was taken over, ‘is that the police stand by and watch. You know there is no recourse. You do what you are told or risk being NIGER 6 beaten up or worse’. Regular police officers behave like the war vets. Their latest casualty was a university student, pulled from his room and beaten to death by police who were supposed to be Starting from scratch restoring order on the University of Zimbabwe’s Harare campus. Nobody keeps a tally of small businesses closing as their owners and managers leave the country President Tandja’s team will face its first electoral test late this year, if they can. A Swiss businessman whose textile company was attacked by vets last week is reported with municipal elections in 205 to have fled, as have others. Manufacturing production, which fell by 10 per cent last year, is now communes. This will also be the lower than it was at Independence in 1980. This year’s figure is expected to show a further fall of test for a new decentralisation plan 8-10 per cent or more if the vets go on invading industries. drawn up by Prime Minister Hama Economists believe agricultural production will fall some 15 per cent in 2001, with a further 25- Amadou’s government. 30 per cent fall over the following year, when resettlement starts to make its impact. The Commercial Farmers’ Union (CFU) says maize plantings fell by 43 per cent last season, wheat was POINTERS 8 down 30 per cent and tobacco, 15 per cent. Livestock losses were 10 per cent for dairy cattle, 18 per cent for beef cattle and over 35 per cent for goats. Some 16,000 jobs have been lost on commercial Congo-Kinshasa, farms and just 16,600 plots have been allocated to resettlement farmers. It is estimated that 31,000 Sudan & Ghana illegal occupants live on commercially owned land and by this month, some 550 farms will have been 20 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 8

‘fast-tracked’ into the hands of new owners. entrepreneurs; and decay in the police, army, public service, health Gold production fell from 27 tons in 1999 to 21.5 tons last year, and education systems. with a further two-ton decline so far this year. Production from Mugabe’s economic hopes rest on South Africa. Last month, other mines has fallen less drastically. Tourist arrivals fell by two- Impala Platinum announced a joint venture with Australian- thirds last year and there is no sign of a revival nor likely to be owned Zimbabwe Platinum Mines to open up the Ngezi mine with unless the veterans stop campaigning in the towns. finance from SA’s ABSA Bank. ABSA owns 26 per cent of the In last year’s elections, all the towns voted against the government Commercial Bank of Zimbabwe (Jewell Bank), close to the and, despite intimidation, support for the opposition MDC is government. Pretoria’s state-owned Eskom is looking at taking holding up. Matebeleland, where ZANU-PF was all but wiped out over the Hwange thermal power station, in a so-called privatisation last year, is said to be even more anti-government today. Ministers deal. Pretoria Portland Cement is buying 44 per cent of Portland hope that the United Nations, by deploying peace monitors in Holdings Zimbabwe from another SA group, Anglo American. Congo-Kinshasa, will help them bring home some of the 13,000 The most likely buyer of the OK Bazaars retail chain in Zimbabwe troops they have sent to support President Joseph Kabila (AC Vol is SA’s Shoprite Checkers, which has opened an outlet in Bulawayo. 42 No 1). Last year, Finance Minister Simba Makoni said the Mugabe’s exit would not transform the country overnight. Early Congo campaign was costing Z$1 billion (US$18 million) a month; this year, when he was on holiday or abroad, members of ZANU’s officials say the monthly bill has risen to an estimated Z$1.25 bn. second team made the populist gestures. Foreign Minister Stan (US$22.5 mn.). None of these figures explains the wider damage Mudenge had public rows with the UK Foreign and Commonwealth to Zimbabwe’s economy caused by the Congo operation. The Office and the Commonwealth Secretariat. Information Minister foreign-exchange cost, at Z$327 mn. a year, equals almost one- Moyo expelled and threatened journalists, and rushed repressive fifth of annual foreign earnings, while debt servicing costs more broadcasting legislation through parliament. Justice Minister than Z$100 bn. in the current year. Patrick Chinamasa ousted Chief Justice Tony Gubbay. Control of land policy was seized by Lands and Agriculture Minister Interests in the Congo war Joseph Made and by the man who would be king, Mugabe’s Harare insists that the Congo-K intervention will pay off. Some of former favourite and current Local Government Minister, Ignatius ZANU-PF’s business supporters are active there, notably multi- Chombo, who has been eclipsed over the past year. millionaire and Mnangagwa-ally John Bredenkamp, who is now Absent from the scene were the technocrats who were supposed operating a joint venture to export cobalt and copper with Congo’s to revive the economy. Since taking office last August, Industry state-owned Gécamines, in its still lucrative Groupe Central Minister Nkosana Moyo has barely been seen or heard. division. Bredenkamp and his associates are putting some business Oppositionists believe he is fed up and wants out. Finance Minister muscle behind new President Kabila II, whom Bredenkamp has Makoni is presented as an economic reformer with the political accompanied on several recent foreign trips. Zimbabwe has agreed muscle to win arguments in cabinet and parliament. He is engaging, to import 250 megawatts of electricity from Congo – 18 months in an experienced business manager with liberal instincts but a fish the future and provided donors will pay for revamping an out of water in ZANU’s current hard-ball politics. In January, he interconnector via Zambia. and Central Bank Governor Leonard Tsumba attempted, under For now, Zimbabwe’s financial crisis worsens. Its budget political pressure, to force interest rates down to 12 per cent, while deficit, projected at less than 4 per cent of gross domestic product inflation was 57 per cent. The absurd result is that pension funds in 1999, turned out at more than 20 per cent last year and will be and life insurance companies have to buy government stock and higher still this year. An International Monetary Fund team left bills at massively negative real interest rates. Harare last month without promising money and the World Bank The policy quickly backfired. The official exchange rate stayed has reluctantly closed its doors, though some of its staff still back at Z$55 to US$1. Within weeks, the parallel market rate for US$1 Mugabe’s strategies. Officials of the UN Development Programme surged from Z$75 to Z$120; on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, still hope they can mediate in the land resettlement debacle but the share prices rose by 60 per cent in six weeks as investors abandoned campaign against urban businesses makes that much harder. Britain the money market. Money supply grew by a third in less than three has withdrawn more than Z$200 mn. ($3.6 mn.) of aid for the months, portending a surge in inflation to more than 100 per cent Privatisation Agency of Zimbabwe because of Harare’s failure to later this year. implement reform policies. Business people clutch at any straw. Many see Mugabe personally Devaluing the Zimbabwe dollar as the main problem and believe that after he goes, the economy On the one hand, Makoni warns exporters and bankers of sanctions will bounce back, a view shared by World Bank officials. His if they trade in the parallel market; on the other, he has been election announcement dashes those hopes. Last month, Yaw discussing a devaluation package with banks and business. By Ansu, the Bank’s Country Director in Zimbabwe, hailed Nick mid-April, with the annual tobacco sales just days away, no Swanepoel’s ‘plan’ for land resettlement as a step in the right package had been announced. Farmers and exporters had been direction. Swanepoel, a former CFU President who is backed by promised a deal on the exchange rate, to encourage tobacco growers the ubiquitous Bredenkamp, proposed a compromise to farmers at to deliver their leaf to the floors and bring in some foreign last month’s special congress. The plan was rejected but the currency. Tobacco exports may ease the situation temporarily but meeting agreed that Swanepoel should become part of the union the fuel crisis will continue. Inflation will accelerate. team which is trying to negotiate a compromise with the government Debt service arrears (more than US$110 mn. of them to the on the land crisis. Many farmers think this unrealistic, since the World Bank, IMF and African Development Bank) – will nudge real point of the veterans’ campaign in the towns is to entrench beyond $1 bn., on a debt of $4.5 bn. Domestic debt has more than ZANU-PF rule. Consequences of that campaign include falling doubled from Z$78 bn. at the end of 1999 to over Z$180 bn. today. production; emigrating professionals, technicians and This excludes losses by semi-state companies, put at some Z$60 2 20 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 8 bn. with Z$20 bn. by the state-owned national oil company NocZim talked more often of his ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a alone. Including the foreign debt and arrears, the total debt is now chum of Mbeki’s and the Foreign Minister (though some Foreign some $9.5 bn., 170 per cent of GDP. Affairs officials think her a bull in a china shop). A far more Most Zimbabweans, whether they are for or against Mugabe’s favoured contender is Cyril Ramaphosa, who was named by Nelson regime, are looking for an international rescue package. There will Mandela as his preferred successor but lost out to Mbeki. Ramaphosa be no international bail-out without decisive political change, then switched to the ‘business empowerment’ sector (and to helping though. That means not just choosing a successor to Mugabe but the British and Irish governments with their shared problems in making a thorough clean-up of the system and its business backers, Northern Ireland). Some say he is biding his time though like Zuma, local and foreign alike. This week’s events mean none of the above he denies it. Another presumed candidate is , the are likely this year. charismatic and competent Reserve Bank Governor; some suggest he was sent to the central bank to quieten his political ambitions. Zuma lacks charisma. His main political achievement has been SOUTH AFRICA that, as a Zulu, he was instrumental in ending the civil strife in KwaZulu-Natal between the ANC and Chief ’s Inkatha Freedom Party. This appeals to the ANC’s Sniping at the President traditionalists and has been an under-celebrated achievement of ANC rule since 1994. Zuma’s remarks about his ‘non-challenge’ to With elections far off, the gossips have fun Mbeki attracted attention mainly because commentators enjoy with speculating on possible successors; one has recently named almost Could President Thabo Mbeki risk being ousted by his own party? a dozen possible contenders. Will he be challenged for the leadership of the African National Congress at the end of 2002 or win a second presidential contest at A hard act to follow the 2004 national elections? Such questions, normal between Whoever followed Mandela was bound to disappoint and Zimbabwe elections in any democracy, have been enlivened by a strange and AIDS were rich grounds for disappointment with Mbeki. There declaration by Deputy President Jacob Zuma, who suddenly has been much gossip about Mbeki’s alleged fondness for women, denied that he planned to challenge Mbeki for the ANC leadership. with a frankness, even mockery, that would have been unthinkable Zuma mentioned vague rumours and ‘so-called intelligence a year ago. It is suggested that Zuma was prompted to release his reports’ suggesting that he might try to wrest control from Mbeki. loyalty statement after receiving a letter from Winnie Madikizela- ‘I believe our current President is certainly capable of leading both Mandela, in which she denied spreading rumours about Mbeki’s the ANC and the country’, he declared, ‘and my confidence in him womanising which mentioned female cabinet members. Again, remains unwavering’. This declaration was, it seems, unsolicited; some conspiracy fantasists got to work positing the idea of an there have been rumours of tense relations between the two leaders alliance between Zuma and Winnie to topple Mbeki; the evidence for but nothing in the public domain to provoke such an unusual this was ‘less than zero’ according to one ANC source. statement. The gossip-mongers figure that Zuma issued his denial The story, however, gained new life when a liberal Afrikaner to achieve the reverse effect and throw his hat publicly into the ring journalist, Max du Preez, alleged on national radio that it was before starting a contest for the top job. common knowledge Mbeki was a womaniser, saying it was in the An astute tactician, auto-didact and former ANC intelligence public interest to discuss this. His remarks enraged many members chief, Zuma is an unlikely focus for party dissidents. Flickers of a of the ANC, whose Western Cape branch called for legislation rift with Mbeki came during the HIV/AIDS furore last year, when against insulting the president. Zuma distanced himself from the President’s questioning of a link Not one of the named challengers has the clout to take on Mbeki, between the virus and the illness. This year, Mbeki has taken away surrounded and defended by political and governmental appointees one of Zuma’s pet projects, a development programme for rural who would fall with him. His control of the party and the presidency areas, allocating it to his close ally, Local Government Minister is formidable. Disdain for his alleged lack of leadership, his Sydney Mufamadi. In addition, Zuma has appeared to side with aloofness and his handling of the Zimbabwe and HIV/AIDS those ANC members who, unlike Mbeki’s office, want to bring in controversies are widespread but organised opposition it is not. Judge Willem Heath, an official investigator of corruption, to look Mbeki at first presented himself as a technocrat steeped in the at an arms deal worth 43 billion Rand (US$5.4 bn.) by the SA details of economic transformation. He is now seen as a brilliant Defence Force (AC Vol 42 No 6). political fixer, mastering his party and neutralising such potential However, Zuma himself has been damaged by the impact of a rivals as, for example, two former provincial premiers, Tokyo messy investigation into the business affairs of former Mpumalanga Sexwale (Gauteng) and Phosa (Mpumalanga). He inherited a Premier Mathews Phosa. After Phosa had said that the investigation liberation movement that brought together disparate factions - from by the government’s elite fraud busters, the Scorpions, was driven the Communist Party to Thatcherites, from white liberals to rural by his political foes, Zuma is said to have proposed that the issue chiefs, from returned exiles (such as Mbeki) to former members of be resolved ‘internally’. For the past month, media speculation has the ‘internal’ Mass Democratic Movement. Domination over them mounted but both Zuma and Phosa are refusing to comment. An is the key to security of tenure and the President achieves that by ANC spokesperson and Mbeki confidant, Smuts Ngonyama, said deploying loyalists to key posts in business and cultivating a loyal the report of the investigating commission into the Mpumalanga black bourgeoisie (AC Vol 42 No 7). When he talks of ‘forces affair (the Maphisa Report) ‘belonged to the ANC’ and would not opposed to the party’, he can appear paranoid. Zuma’s loyalty be made public. This only fuelled more speculation. statement may have been designed to calm that paranoia. Until he declared he would not challenge Mbeki, Zuma was There is no serious reason to believe Mbeki will not be re-elected rarely mentioned as a possible next president. Succession-spotters ANC president next year or national president, for a second term, in 3 20 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 8

2004. The arms deal has yet to tarnish him, although it could take Secretary General João Alexandre is a lightweight. Dhlakama down some party heavyweights, such as Chief Whip Tony Yengeni. refuses to hold a party congress, but he could have dominated one Delivery of jobs, houses and services to an impoverished public held immediately after his good showing in the presidential poll. has been slow but not slow enough to drive the Communists and the Donors complain Renamo neglects its middle-rankers and sends trades union leaders out of the tripartite alliance with the ANC in only very junior people on courses. The United States Agency for which they are junior partners (although the National Union of International Development is spending US$3 million on technical Mineworkers, once Ramaphosa’s powerful instrument, has raised assistance for the two main parties and Frelimo uses its share far that possibility). Mbeki must detest the wave of criticism, from more effectively than Renamo, some of whose old Cold War within and without his party, that splashes towards him. However, backers are back in President George W. Bush’s new State for now, whatever the gossips say, a two-term presidency is the Department, urging their Embassy in Maputo to offer Renamo likeliest outcome. more. The party keeps rejecting US advice that it could win an election by turning itself into a well organised democratic outfit. Dhlakama specialises in boycotts and walkouts. Repeated MOZAMBIQUE walkouts won him concessions both in the peace talks and in 1992- 94, when the United Nations monitored the lead-up to the first real elections. He boycotted the first day of that vote and won prestige Talks break down when world leaders telephoned him to urge him to end his boycott, which he did. Boycotts in the first pluralist parliament also brought Hardliners on both sides have opted for concessions - until the ploy wore thin; when Renamo boycotted the confrontation 1998 local elections, donors backed the government’s decision to Afonso Dhlakama, President of the opposition Renamo party, go ahead without it. Renamo could have won nearly half of the 33 walked out after five hours of talks with President Joaquim municipalities, giving power and pay to hundreds of its supporters. Alberto Chissano on 29 March, handing over a letter prepared in In the December 1999 elections, Renamo again walked out of the advance. Having not met face to face for over a year, the two men National Election Commission but the Supreme Court validated began talking in December and continued in January but each, the results, despite serious problems with the counting, which was under pressure from hardliners in his party, wanted to make the done at night, by candle or lamplight, by exhausted, barely educated other yield. workers who had slept the two previous nights with the ballot In the December 1999 election, Chissano, the incumbent President boxes. Errors on report forms led to the exclusion from the count and leader of the what is now known simply as ‘Frelimo’ (Frente of 7 per cent of presidential votes, 9 per cent of parliamentary de Libertação Moçambicana) won 52 per cent of the vote; Dhlakama votes. Nevertheless, experts from donor countries agreed with the won 48 per cent. In 1994, at the nation’s first multi-party elections, Court that some dodgy results would not have changed the outcome. Chissano had won far more easily, with 53 per cent to Dhlakama’s Observer groups from the European Union, Commonwealth and 34 per cent, with 13 per cent for independents. Frelimo activists Carter Center concluded that Joaquim Chissano was the legitimate were surprised at their man’s decline, especially since the 1999 President of Mozambique. parliamentary elections had given Frelimo a comfortable 133 seats Renamo and Dhlakama said they had been cheated, refused to and the Resistência Nacional Moçambicana, 117. (In 1994, Frelimo recognise the new government and partially boycotted parliament. had got 129, Renamo 112, independents nine). The ten provincial governors rank with ministers and are appointed Dhlakama’s presidential performance in 1999 was helped by the by the President (as are most other lower-level officials, except in backing of ten small parties which teamed up as Renamo-União the towns, whose local governments have been elected since 1998.) Eleitoral (Electoral Union). His rise was seen as a reaction to In exchange for recognising the Chissano government, Dhlakama increasing government corruption and the realisation by most demanded the right to name governors and district administrators people outside the capital that they were little better off now than in the six provinces where Renamo had won a majority. at the end of the civil war in 1992. Mozambique is the darling of the donors, especially the International Monetary Fund and World Secret deals, shortlists and sabotage Bank, whose neo-liberal economic policies have produced a double- This was the subject, early last year, of secret but authorised digit growth rate. That growth, though, has been almost entirely in negotiations between Transport Minister and Chissano-supporter Maputo, which has luxury houses, traffic jams, new office blocks Tomaz Salomão and Renamo’s Domingos. Chissano named his and hotels, while producers of cotton and cashew nuts, the biggest new government without naming new governors; Salomão secretly peasant cash crops, earn less and less (AC Vol 42 No 3). offered Renamo the chance to present short-lists of three names for Renamo’s leaders feel they need only wait for Frelimo to lose the three of the contested governorships, while in the other three, 2003 local and 2004 national elections. Frelimo’s leaders think Chissano would present three names and appoint the one chosen by Renamo weak and on the point of collapse. Dhlakama still runs the Renamo. Dhlakama rejected this chance of power, refusing to take party like a personal chieftainship, ensuring that no rival can win less than six of his own governors, then put an end to the talks by power or prestige. Members of its inner circle regularly fall out of revealing they were taking place. favour. Raul Domingos was Chief of Staff during the war, leader Chissano, a diplomat and former foreign minister, is always of Renamo’s team during the 1990-92 peace talks in Rome, finally minded to negotiate. However, Frelimo’s hard-liners, led by head of the party’s parliamentary group in 1994-99. Openly former liberation fighters, remember that in the 1980s they called complaining that he felt ‘undermined’ by his number two, Dhlakama Renamo ‘South African-backed armed bandits’ and still want to had him expelled from the party last year. smash them. Chissano, offended by Dhlakama’s peremptory His choice as head of the parliamentary party is Ossufo Quitine, walking out of the secret talks, took up the hardline approach. In a newly elected member with little political experience. Renamo June, he publicly revealed that Domingos had asked for money for 4 20 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 8 himself and for Renamo, apparently wanting (and obtaining) his do so; jockeying for the succession is discreetly under way, with expulsion from Renamo. In July, Chissano appointed the six Guebuza the favourite, although he is widely disliked and mistrusted. governors without consulting Renamo. In October, police raided Mocumbi so far has little support. Frelimo would prefer a six Renamo houses in Beira. northern candidate, such as parliamentary speaker Mulémbwè and It often happens that Renamo announces demonstrations, the former Defence Minister Aguiar Mazula. Graça Machel, widow government ignores the announcements and Renamo fails to of the first President, Samora Machel (now seen as representing organise anything. Yet when Renamo called demonstrations for 9 a cleaner, more honest era) and wife of South African former November, Frelimo denounced the call as illegal, thereby making President , is respected both internationally and the protests far more important. There were small, peaceful in Mozambique’s civil society; if asked, she might well stand for marches in several towns, including the capital. Elsewhere police president and she would do well. attacked and even shot demonstrators. In Montepuez, Renamo In Renamo, the effective number two is Dhlakama’s closest mounted an armed raid on the town centre, which it occupied for a advisor, David Aloni, a member of the parliamentary standing day; seven policemen were killed and so were at least 33 committee. He backs Renamo’s maximum demands - that Frelimo demonstrators, there and elsewhere. In Montepuez, police must admit it stole the election and let Renamo name the six subsequently rounded up some raiders and packed them into a tiny governors. He is backed by Ossufo Momade from Nampula, one cell where, on 22 November, 83 of them died of suffocation and of the few senior Renamo fighters still active in the party, and hunger. On the same day, the country’s best known journalist, Manuel Pereira, the Sofala provincial representative. Carlos Cardoso, editor of the daily Metical, was gunned down in Against them stand many of Renamo’s backers in the north, who Maputo, apparently to prevent him from publishing more reports feel they have gained nothing from the end of the war and the start on corruption (AC Vol 41 No 24). of parliamentary democracy. They opposed the boycott of local elections, wanting Dhlakama to negotiate jobs and benefits for Shock tactics, then parley them. There are yet more dissenters in the ten small parties of the Responding to the shock of November’s violence, Chissano and Electoral Union, each of which won at least two seats; they want to Dhlakama at last agreed to talk. They met on 20 December in build up their parties by working within parliament and strongly parliament, where Dhlakama did not have to recognise Chissano as oppose the boycott. Three of these parties – Movimento Nacionalista head of state. Dhlakama demanded a recount of the 1999 vote, Moçambicana (Monamo), Partido de Convenção Nacional (PCN, ‘immediate abolition of the judicial system’ and the right to headed by Lutero Chimbirimbiri Simango) and Frente Unida de appoint governors and district administrators in the six provinces. Moçambique (Fumo, headed by José Samo Gudo) – say they will Despite this tough talk, the encounter was cordial and further stand independently of Renamo in local elections in 2003. Monamo meetings were agreed. However, the second meeting, on 17 leader and founder Máximo Diogo José Dias, says Renamo’s hard January, was unpleasant. line plays into the hands of the Frelimo hard-liners. On both sides, hardliners opposed to the dialogue were at work Also active are several politicised ‘civil society’ groups. After again. In late December, Chissano had faced Frelimo’s Political the violence, twelve formed the Movement for Peace and Committee, where a majority opposed the talks. Frelimo’s factions Citizenship. CEDE, the Centre for the Study of Democracy and and disputes are often bitter, yet the movement has stuck together Development, is headed by the embattled university Rector Brazão for more than 30 years. Broadly, one main tendency is around Mazula, not a member of Frelimo but brother to former Defence Chissano and largely in government, the other is around Armando Minister Aguiar. The Institute for Peace and Democracy, IPAD, Guebuza and largely in parliament. Chissano is backed by Prime was formed when Domingos joined with Salomão Moyana, Editor Minister Pascoal Manuel Mocumbi and Foreign Minister of the independent weekly Savana, and Inacio Chire, a former Leonardo dos Santos Simão (both doctors; Chissano was a medical PCN Secretary General. It is openly a political vehicle for Domingos student) and by the government’s rising technocrats. The only two and reminds citizens’ groups (some of them represented on town ministers on the Political Committee are Mocumbi and Education councils) that it is not necessary to belong to a national, registered Minister Alcidio Nguenha. party to stand in the local elections in 2003. Domingos sees himself Key parliamentary figures on the political committee include the as leader of a centre party; if IPAD affiliates did well in 2003, they Speaker, Eduardo Mulémbwè, deputy Speaker Veronica Macamo, might try to gain a foothold in parliament in 2004. Guebuza heading Frelimo’s parliamentary group and Margarida Talapa, his outspoken deputy. This group, along with Sérgio Vieira of the Frelimo old guard and Teodato Hunguana (a rising ZAMBIA star) publicly opposed the Dhlakama-Chissano dialogue, saying it bypassed the elected parliament. Privately, they see no reason to make concessions to Renamo. The cock crows The dispute over the dialogue is caught up with both Frelimo’s Opposition to President Chiluba’s term is modernisation and the question of Chissano’s successor. Manuel growing by the day Tomé, party chief and Political Committee member, is fast overhauling the party machine, which is large and fairly effective Born-again Christian President arrived back in but deeply rooted in the 1980s one-party state. Many of the old Lusaka for Easter to denounce the ‘ministerial treachery’ against guard, surprisingly, support modern American and European him in biblical terms. He compared those ministers who had been approaches to organisation, campaigning and policy formation, campaigning against his bid for a third term to Simon Peter’s thinking they might offer a way to win back the votes of those who denial of Jesus Christ. While Chiluba was in London last week, deserted Frelimo in 1999. Meanwhile, though Chissano is entitled 60 of the 150 members of parliament signed a petition opposing a to stand once more in 2004, he is widely believed to be reluctant to third term for him and some cabinet ministers were seen in Lusaka 5 20 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 8

convention to deal with normal business of the party’, including the election of a new leader. The party constitution says that a normal The two-is-enough group convention requires not less than three months’ notice. Some Fifteen senior members of the governing MMD’s National senior party members are considering asking the courts for an Executive Committee publicly oppose Chiluba’s bid for a injunction to stop the convention going ahead. third term. Edith Z. Nawakwi, thought to be their coordinator, ‘There is a systematic doctoring of lists of delegates to the said: ‘We have no presidential candidate. Our main reason for convention... There will be no convention if you do not stop this coming together is to oppose the third term.’ clear attempt to frustrate the will of MMD members,’ said Newton ● National Vice-President Christon S. Tembo; N’guni, deputy Finance Minister and an NEC member, in a letter ● Education Minister ; to Sata. Sata replied that N’guni was being used by the two generals ● Labour Minister Edith Nawakwi; who want the presidency – national Vice-President Christon Tembo ● Legal Affairs Minister Vincent Malambo; and Education Minister Godfrey Miyanda. Such rancour could ● Mines and Mineral Development Minister Syamukayumbu split the party. So far, fifteen NEC members, including senior S. Syamujaye; ministers and MPs, have ganged up to oppose the third-term bid ● Agriculture, Food and Fisheries Minister Suresh M. (see Box). The group wants to persuade rural delegates - even those Desai; who have received gifts from the Chiluba camp – to vote against the ● Environment and Natural Resources Minister Samuel S. third term at the secret ballot. Lawyers and people in the business Miyanda; sector who support them have placed anonymous adverts in the ● Deputy Health Minister Ernest Mwansa; independent papers. ● Deputy Finance Minister Newton N’guni; ● Deputy Lands Minister Ackim Nkole; Sata’s DAs fight for a third term ● MMD National Chairman Sikota Wina; Sata is fighting back. All the 73 government-appointed district ● MMD Elections Chairman Ackson Sejani; administrators (DAs) back the third term, so he has made them ● MMD Transport Chairman William J. Harrington; observers at the convention, where their presence could alarm some ● Lusaka Province Chairman Boniface Kawimbe; delegates. At the Southern Province conference, DAs assaulted ● Southern Province Chairman Edgar Keembe. ministers thought to oppose the third term and Chiluba refused to discipline them. The Chiluba team has promised some of the 128 MMD parliamentarians, all with a vote at the convention, ministerial distributing anti-Chiluba leaflets. More MPs have since added jobs if they back the third term. Levison Mumba MP, known to be their names to the petition. Advertisements in the state-owned against the third term, was appointed Minister for Eastern Province newspapers headed ‘The Great Betrayal’ regularly rail against the immediately after he had changed his stance. ‘They have approached ‘traitors’ in Chiluba’s midst. me but I don’t think I can really join them,’ said the outspoken Chiluba’s ambitions for a third five-year term in power (AC Vol Major Francis Kamanga MP, after a row with Commerce Minister 42 No 6) face their first big test on 28 April, at an extraordinary Norman Chibamba over the third-term issue. Some traditional convention of the ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy. chiefs have accepted inducements to support the third term. Whatever the MMD says, he needs a two-thirds parliamentary Even if Chiluba wins at the convention, parliament would still majority to make the necessary constitutional change. Another have to produce that two-thirds majority in support of his impeachment move – which would require a two-thirds majority in constitutional bill. Friends of the Speaker, Amussa parliament – has been launched by opposition MPs and the growing Mwanamwamwa, say he is looking for a way to block the tradition band of MMD dissidents to counter the MMD convention vote. of voting by a show of hands, substituting a secret ballot. That would offer some protection to MPs afraid to vote against the will April ballot of ‘the Boss’, as Chiluba likes to be called these days. At the MMD convention, some 1,400 delegates will vote by secret ballot. The party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) met on 30 March to receive petitions from members, refused to take a NIGER position and called for an urgent special convention. Of nine provincial branches, only Lusaka and Southern have come out publicly against the third term. , MMD National Starting from scratch Secretary and Chiluba’s closest ally, has placed seven proposed constitutional amendments on the agenda. One would remove A new democracy, an empty treasury and a restrictions on the party president’s term of office. Another would hollow economy increase the number of delegates to the convention where the party Niger has calmed down since the elections of November 1999 put president is elected, thus increasing the number of pro-third-term it back on the road to democracy, after several turbulent years. members of the electoral college. Yet another proposed amendment Politics were stabilised by the 59.9 per cent vote for President would deny voting rights at the convention to local councillors, Mamadou Tandja in the second round, when he was helped by the many of whom are hostile to Chiluba. backing of ex-President Mahamane Ousmane. The ruling team There may be legal flaws in the convention plan. The MMD will face its first electoral test late this year, with municipal constitution allows the NEC to call an extraordinary convention elections in, for a start, 205 communes. This will also be the test with 30 days’ notice. Sata proposes that, after the extraordinary for a new decentralisation plan drawn up by Prime Minister Hama convention has dealt with the constitutional amendments, it should Amadou’s government. The plan is soon to be presented to the for the following days, 29 and 30 April, ‘convert itself in a normal Assemblée Nationale. 6 20 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 8

In the National Assembly, Tandja’s Mouvement National pour decent profits and low prices to people on both sides of the frontier une Société de Développement-Nassara is in a very healthy position, but does no good at all to the government, which depends massively holding 55 seats where 42 confer an absolute majority. Hama on foreign aid. Amadou is from the MNSD. Mahamane Ousmane’s Convention There seems to be little future in uranium mining. Uranium Démocratique et Sociale-Rahama has 17 members, which helped exports brought in CFA 64.2 bn. in 2000, when production was earn the former national President the parliamentary presidency. about 3,000 tonnes. The business is operated by two subsidiaries The opposition has 28 seats: 16 seats for Mahamadou Issoufou’s of the French company Cogema, Cominak (Akouta) and Somaïr Parti Nigérien pour la Démocratie et le Socialisme-Tarayya (Arlit). Somaïr buys a kilogramme for CFA 23,000, with the (PNDS), eight for the Rassemblement pour la Démocratie et le market price at about CFA 16,000; the company wants to reduce Progrès-Djamaa (RDP) and four seats for Adamou Moumouni production costs by sacking 150 workers. Djermakoye’s Alliance Nigérienne pour la Démocratie et le There are hopes for a growth in gold-mining, possibly oil Progrès (ANDP). production, and tourism. The prospects for oil production are looking better after two decades of thwarted hopes. Two small Tandja, man of the people Canadian-registered firms TG World Energy and Trego Tandja won because the electors wanted an end to military rule. International, who hold the 70,000 square kilometres Tenere Since he had not held any government post for eight years, Tandja concession near Lake Chad in Eastern Niger, are making progress was not blamed for the human rights abuses and other excesses of but will need bigger partners to develop Niger’s oil potential. A the previous regime. Tandja has been an army officer, a minister, big problem is how to pipe the oil out of Niger. One idea was to link and Prefect of Tahoua and he is seen as a man of the people, who up with the route for the Chad-Cameroon pipeline; schemes for understands the rural areas. And Tandja is respected in those areas pipelines into southern Algeria or Libya are more problematic. as serious, solid, strict and hard-working. Another option, which the Tandja government increasingly The Tuareg-Toubou rebellion is finished and the peace accords favours, is a deal with Nigeria. If President Olusegun Obasanjo’s signed on 24 April 1995 have been fully implemented, except that government does sell its state-owned oil refineries and perseveres public-service jobs have not yet been found for a few ex-rebels. with deregulating fuel prices, the economics of Niger supplying oil Ministries have been given to one Tuareg leader, Rissa ag Boula to the Kaduna refinery in northern Nigeria look more attractive. It of the Organisation de la Résistance Armée (ORA) and one Toubou, would also allow Niger to export oil via Nigeria’s national pipeline. Issa Lamine of the Front Démocratique du Renouveau (FDR). The World Bank, though, hopes to build on the existing strength The troubled regions are quiet enough for tourists now; the of peasant agriculture by developing production for specialised traditional armed robbers prefer solitary vehicles to groups of markets – not just the usual cotton (now at 6,000 t. per annum) and foreigners (AC Vol 41 No 2). Islamism, whose activists are hard skinny cattle (livestock provides 15 per cent of gross domestic at work in the Maradi region bordering northern Nigeria, is the new product) but beans, sesame, onions, gum Arabic, garlic, peppers threat to stability. and beef, all to be supported through a special programme for farm International donors came in fast to support the newly elected exports, involving the supply and marketing chain as well as actual government. The International Monetary Fund has worked out a farming. Yet production costs are high, the financial, judicial and debt-reduction deal to bring the external debt down from 1,041 administrative networks are undeveloped, and the region’s mainly billion CFA francs (US$1.4 bn.) in 1999 (three times annual export Hausa merchants make their profits out of the present system and earnings) to FF CFA 686 bn., a reduction of 53.5 per cent. Relations do not want it changed. The most thriving economy is in the south- with the Fund and World Bank had been broken off from June 1999 east: no government can afford to upset the big merchants. until last December, when Niamey signed up to a Poverty Reduction Niger is seen in the region as something of an isolated place. and Growth Facility with the IMF, opening credits of CFA 55 bn. Though it is a cross-roads where the Arab-Kabyle culture meets over three years. A provisional poverty-reduction strategy that of the Hausa-Fulani peoples, where French-speakers meet formulated in April 2000 qualified the country for status at the English-speakers, and where the Franc Zone – soon to be assimilated World Bank as a heavily indebted poor country. The new money within the Euro Zone – meets the real world, in each case the centre is supposed to go mainly to health and education. Only just over of gravity is somewhere else and so far, there is nothing solid for one-third of children attend any school; rural children and girls Niger to rest on. have the fewest chances of education. Health care, such as it is, works only where foreign aid helps to keep it going. Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com The new credits have jump-started the economy, from negative Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at growth of 0.6 per cent in 1999 to an estimated 4 per cent positive 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. growth in 2000 (which may well be an overestimate, since the Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. weather was bad and crops were poor). The previous regime left Administration: Clare Tauben. the public coffers empty; staff were often paid a year late. The new credits mean that civil servants get their wages. Public revenues of Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: about CFA 100 bn. are still smaller than the state’s current spending Institutions: Africa £289 - UK/Europe £310 - USA $780 - ROW £404 of CFA 130 bn., though. Corporates: Africa £354 - UK/Europe £373 - USA $864 - ROW £466 The uranium mines and a few small producers and service- Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £83 or USA $129 providers pay practically all the tax; hardly any is paid by the three- All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. quarters of the economy in the ‘informal sector’. Informal trade Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 (that means smuggling) with Nigeria involves substantial exports 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 of cattle on the hoof and beans, and imports of grain, sugar, Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. petroleum products, building materials and so on. This brings ISSN 0044-6483 7 20 April 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 8

General Denis Kalume (National Reconstruction, united Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and Pointers Maniema). One of Kabila I’s advisors, Georges the reintegration of SPDF forces. Buse Falay (Eastern Province) gets the Energy ● The SPDF’s relief wing, Relief Association of portfolio. As in the previous government, South Sudan (RASS), will continue under that CONGO-KINSHASA Equateur, province of rebel Jean-Pierre Bemba name beside the SPLA’s Sudan Relief and (and of the late dictator Mobutu) receives only Rehabilitation Association (SRRA). token representation, with Tomothée Moleka After Garang ‘responded positively’ to the The man from uncle Nzulama at Youth and Sports and Jeanne committees’ decisions, changing only some Embaba Boboto at Social Affairs. wording, Deng travelled to Eastern Upper Nile on ‘Joseph Kabila has chased away the uncles at Kabila II has certainly got rid of most dinosaurs, 11 April to deliver them to Commander Riek. On last’, proclaimed Le Forum des As on 15 April. unpopular with donors as well as the Congolese. 12 April, says Garang aide Cdr. Edward Lino, The Kinshasa daily was reflecting widespread Yet the new team contains no opposition figure of Riek radioed his ‘unconditional acceptance’. public approval of the President’s Easter Saturday any influence and is seen by dissidents as in line Much remains to be resolved, not least Riek’s reshuffle that removed three of the four barons of with Kabila’s refusal to abrogate Decree 194, own position. This is to be decided in face-to-face the late Laurent Kabila’s regime. The departed which imposes harsh conditions for registering talks between Garang and Riek, whose 1991 split uncles, all State (senior) Ministers, are Gaëtan political parties. Like his predecessor and contrary from the SPLA plunged the south into catastrophic Kakudji (Interior, number two to his cousin, to the Lusaka Accord, Kabila II is opposed to inter-factional and often ethnic fighting. Laurent), Abdoulaye Yérodia Ndombasi making the ‘Inter-Congolese dialogue’ (which is Many believe Riek has little choice but to (Education) and Pierre-Victor Mpoyo (Minister supposed to prepare the country’s transition) a accept Garang’s terms. Since defecting from without Portfolio and the man behind the precondition of the departure of ‘the aggressors Khartoum, he has failed to muster the support he controversial mining contracts with Zimbabwe’s from Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda’. had hoped for among his field commanders or the Billy Rautenbach.) international community. The belief in SPLA Kakudji and Yérodia, along with Kabila I’s last SUDAN circles is that Deng would have joined them even Information Minister, Dominique Sakombi if his boss, Riek, had refused. Inongo (also sacked), stand accused in a Belgian Observers wonder where this leaves another court of inciting racial hatred in a case brought by Oiling the daggers Bahr el Ghazal veteran, Bona Malwal, who has victims of the massacres of Tutsi in August 1998. just published a scathing attack on his former ally Yerodia is ‘wanted’ in Belgium. Sakombi, who Southern leaders at daggers drawn since 1991 (‘the multi-millionaire Garang... is no liberator’) claims to be a born-again Christian and leads a have reached agreement in principle that Riek or Riek’s former ally Lam Akol, powerless to do fundamentalist sect, says he was Mobutu Sese Machar’s forces be reintegrated into the Sudan much for the third big Nilotic group, the Shilluk, Seko’s Information Minister because ‘the Creator People’s Liberation Army of Colonel John as the NIF’s token Transport Minister. President’ was a devil who got inside him. He also Garang. The pact, expected to be announced by claims that Kabila I was given his power by God the end of April, opens the way for a united GHANA and predicts all manner of curses on the Tutsi Southern front. This would hugely strengthen the people. This and the appointment of ‘new men’ south against the National Islamic Front may help explain the enthusiasm of Brussels’ government’s scorched-earth tactics, which it uses Cash and carry Foreign Minister, Louis Michel, for the reshuffle, to depopulate oil-rich areas (AC Vol 42 Nos 6 & which he deemed ‘progressive and reformist’. 7), inhabited mainly by the south’s two largest After 100 days in office President John Kufuor Not everyone sees it like that. Indeed, Kabila tribes – the Dinka (Garang) and Nuer (Machar). and his New Patriotic Party have problems with II was at pains to note that this is not a ‘break’ with Senior aides to Garang say Riek first expressed corruption — mostly involving their predecessors, his father’s team. Notwithstanding a wave of his wish for unity in a letter to Garang and the the National Democratic Congress. Outgoing younger and more technocratic ministers, SPLA on 31 December, over a year after he NDC ministers, MPs and officials were stopped continuity remains in the Katangan frame of the resigned as Assistant Vice-President to President from buying their official cars at knock-down new government. The keystone of this is the only Omer el Beshir and left Khartoum for the south. prices. But they did get massive end of service unsacked uncle, Mwenze Kongolo, who gets the Riek complained the government had failed to benefits – running into billions of cedis; some of ominous-sounding job of Minister of National implement the 1997 Khartoum Peace Agreement the cheques were written by NDC officials even Security and Public Order. Tonton Mwenze is that set up a Southern States Coordinating Council, after they had lost the election. regarded as a hawk and a friend of Zimbabwean headed by him, to govern the south until a Also under scrutiny is a deal in which the Justice Minister and presidential favourite referendum on self-determination, to be held in Ghana government is said to have guaranteed a Emmerson Mnangagwa. four years’ time. US$20 mn. loan for an African-American woman, Also Katangan are the Minister at the Garang reportedly wrote back in March. Two Juliet Cotton, and her company, Quality Grains Presidency, Augustin Katumba Mwanke, committees were immediately formed – one under Limited, to produce cheap rice. The project hasn’t Defence Minister Irung’ Awan and Mwenze SPLA veteran Justin Yac (from Bahr el Ghazal), yielded any rice, the loan hasn’t been repaid and Kongolo’s replacement at Justice, Mantre Ngeli the other under Taban Deng Gai of Riek’s Sudan QGL has left a trail of bad debts in its wake. Masudi. Interior Minister Mira Ndjoku (Western People’s Defence Forces-Democratic Front. The In a separate incident, former deputy Minister Kasai, a retired army officer) is flanked by a SPLA credits Deng, who resigned as Minister of of Finance Victor Selormey was picked up at Katangan deputy, Tshikez Tiem. His colleague State for Roads in the Khartoum government late Accra airport on 15 April, held overnight by the at Economy, Finance and Budget, Matungulu last year, for nudging Riek in the direction of Bureau of National Investigation and questioned Mbuyamu (Bas-Congo, a former International unity. Deng sees southern unity as the only way about a $1 mn. payment to a US-resident Ghanaian Monetary Fund official in Cameroon), may be to disarm Khartoum’s new oil weapon. for a consultancy. pressured by the appointment of Katangan The two committees have met four times: thrice And on 13 April, the BNI arrested former Léonard Lohongwe as his deputy. to agree a five-point agenda and then once only to Auditor-General Osei Tutu Prempeh in church, A non-Katangan ultra-loyalist of Kabila I, his reach agreement. SPLA sources say they agreed and retrieved 39 classified documents. Some say Ambassador to Harare, Kikaya Bin Kalubi that: the BNI wanted to get the papers before Prempeh (Maniema), becomes the regime’s propaganda ● The reintegrated forces will be called SPLA. shredded them but Accra cynics insist the BNI’s supremo as Communications and Press Minister. ● Their objective will be a united, democratic and top brass wanted to stop Prempeh circulating Two other ministers are unchanged: Léonard She secular New Sudan. documents that might shown them in a less then Okitundu (Foreign Affairs, Eastern Kasai) and ● Committees will decide the structures of the benevolent light. 8