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The Money and Bond Markets in September 1975

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The Money and Bond Markets in September 1975 240 MONTHLY REVIEW,.OCTOBER 1975 The Money and Bond Markets in September Short-term interest rates were little changed over the was also moderate when compared with recent historical month, although some upward pressure emerged around patterns. The bank credit proxy halted its recent decline the quarterly statement date. The continued moderate and grew modestly during the month. growth reported for the monetary aggregates reduced the concern of marketparticipants over a near-term tightening THE MONEY MARKET AND THE of money market conditions by the Federal Reserve. Nev- MONETARY AGGREGATES ertheless,. further signs of a strengthening economy and prospects of heavier credit demands weighed on market The Federal funds rate and other short-term rates were sentiment. stable over' most of the month, although increased churn- In the Government and corporate securities markets, ing in the money market put some upward pressure on opposing forced' left yields somewhat higher on balance rates toward the month end (see Chart I). Many large by the month end. Fears of renewed inflation deepened banks apparently sought to add to certificates of deposit with news of. the developing economic recovery. An an- (CDs) before the quarterly statement publishing date, and nouncement by the Treasury of enlarged borr9wing needs rates on these instruments started rising aroundthe middle with more emphasis on sellinglonger term issues to finance of the month. For September as a whole, the effective rate them also was a depressing influence. On the other hand, on Federal funds averaged 6.24 percent, compared with a the consumer price index for August showed a low rate of 6.14 percent average in August. Member bank borrowings increase, and substantial demand emerged in the auctions from the discount window continued to ,be modest on for Treasury securities. Developments in the corporate average over the month (see Table.1)., as the rate on Fed market were also greatly aided by a relatively, small eral funds remained only slightly, above the discount rate. amount of new issues.offered during the month and ex- Rates on 90- to 119-day dealer-placed commercial paper pected in the near future. This partly reflected the massive were raised during the month ¼ percentage point to 6/8 corporate debt financing earlier in the year and the can- percent, while rates on bankers' acceptances were approxi- cellations or postponements of issues due to current levels mately unchanged. In the secondary market, the rate on of interest rates. large negotiable CDs maturing in ninety days closed the Meanwhile, yields in the municipal market rose sharply month at 7.03 percent, up 8 basis points from the end of in September to record levels, as New York City's fiscal August. crisis, continued to weigh heavily on this sector. Legisla- The demand for bank loans by businesses, in decline tion, to provide additional revenues for the city was passed since last December, remained weak during. September. by the New York State legislature early in September, but Commercial and industrial loans at large commercial investors remained concerned over the financing needs of banks rose only $4 million in the first four statement weeks state and local government borrowers and their access to in September, compared with a $1,330 million average in the market. Investor concern deepened at the close of the crease over similar periods in the previous four years. month when a section of the legislation which required Nevertheless,most money center banks raised their prime the use of pension funds of state employeeswas declared lending rate 1/4 percentage point to 8 percent. unconstitutional by New York State's highest court. During the month, the Board of Governors of the 'Fed- According to preliminary data, which now reflect recent eral Reserve System released revised estimates of the bench-mark. revisions, growth in the narrow. money stock money stock measures for the period beginning January (M1) remained moderate in September for the third of this year for M1—private demand deposits. adjusted straight month. Growth 'of the more broadly defined plus currency outside commercial banks—and beginning money stock (M2), though more rapid than that of M1, October 1974 for M2—M1 plus time deposits other than FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 241 ChartI SELECTED INTEREST RATES July-September 1975 BOND MARKET YIELDS -P.sc.nt 11.00 0.00 New Aaa—rat.d public u lily bonds ------ Aaa-rat.d u.ason.d Irporals bond, p.00 3— to 5-y.ar —Government securities 8.00 21 -year tax-eu; mpt bond, 7.00 Governm.ntsecurities 5.00 111111111111111111111 11111111 III 111111111 11111111111111111111 A (10 2 9 16 23 30 6 (3 20 27 3 10 17 24 July August Sept.mber July August September Note: Dataace shown forbusiness daysonly. MONEY MARKET RATES QUOTED Prime commercial loan rate at mostmajor banks; standard Aaa.rated bond of at least twenty years maturity; dailyaverage, of offeringrates (quoted interms al roteof discount) on 90. to 119.day_pnim.commercial yieldsan seasonedAaa.rat.d corporate bands; daily averages of yi.lds on paper quoted by threeof the five dialers that reporttheir rates. or the midpoint of lonp.termGovernment securities (bands due orcallable in ten years or morel th. range quoted It no cans.nsus in available; the effective rote an Federal funds and an Government securities due in thre, to five computed on the basis (the rats mostrepresentative of the transactions executed);closing bid fates (quoted of clasing bid prices; Thursdayaverag.. of yieldson twenty seasonedJ±1!i.ty_ in term, of rat. of discount)on newest outstanding three.month Treasnry)((j yeartan..uempjs lcarrying Moadys ratings of Ann,Au, A, and Baa). BOND MARKET YIELDS QUOTED: Yields an new Aoo.rated publicutility_b.!. ore based Sources, Federal ReserveBank of NewYork, Board of Governors of the F.dsret an prices asked byunderwriting syndicates, adjusted to make them equivalent to a ReserveSystem, Moody, lnvestar, Service, Inc., and The Bond Buyer. large negotiable CDs. The revisions reflect data obtained annual rate (see Chart II). Consumer-type time and sav- from the April 16 call report for nonmember banks and ings deposits at commercial banks continued to grow from reports from foreign agencies and branches. The somewhat more slowly than their rapid pace in the first major effect of the revisions was to lower the average level half of the year, partly in lagged response to the run-up of M1 during 1975 by about $1 billion. As a result, growth in market interest rates in recent months. During the first of M1 from 1974 has been lowered slightly. All money four statement weeks of the month, these deposits aver- stock data in this article reflect these revisions. aged 6.9 percent at an annual rate above their level in the Preliminary data indicate that growth in the monetary period ended four weeks earlier. Over the same period, aggregates remained moderate in September. During the M2 increased at a 5.0 percent rate. CDs, reversing a steady four-week period ended September 24, seasonally adjusted decline since January, grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in M1 averaged 2.6 percent at an annual rate above its aver- September. The bank credit proxy—total member bank age during the four statement weeks in August. This deposits subject to reserve requirements plus certain non- brought the growth in M1 from its average level in the four deposit sources of funds—rose in September for the first weeks ended thirteen weeks earlier to 3.0 percent at an time in three months. 242 MONTHLY REVIEW,OCTOBER 1975 Tab6e I THE QOVERNMENT SECURITIEB MARKET WACrORSTENDING TO INCREASE OR DECREASE MEMBERBANK RESERVES,SEPTEMBER 1575 Yields on rose on Inmillions of dollars; (+) denotes Increase coupon-bearing Treasury obligations and (—) decrease In excess reserves balance during September, while rates of return on Trea- sury bills fluctuated in a narrow range. During the first Changes In daily averages— week ended Net half of September, investors became increasingly con- Factors changes cerned about inflation and the financing needs of the Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. 3 10 17 24 Treasury. With these considerations weighing on the market, prices of longer maturity issues weakened sub- stantially. After midmonth, some good news on the price 'Mark.t" laster. front and massive retail interest in a Treasury auction Member bank requiredreserve. — 42 + 118 —188 — 293 — 405 precipitated a short rally, but most coupon issues ended Operating transactions (subtotal) — 899 +1.153 — 257 —3.381 —3.384 the month with higher yields on balance. Relatively stable Federal Reserv, float — 62 546 — 194 l5 448 + + + dealer financing costs supported the Treasury bill market Treasury operaUons — 607 + 483 +245 —3.829 —3.758 with rates — and, supply pressures potentially easing, Gold and foreignaccount 62 — 51 + 26 + 41 — 46 were over most of the month. banks — — fairly steady Currency outside + 115 72 + 208 + 29 On its overall Other Federal Reserve liabilities September 10, the Treasury announced 177 cash needs for the remainder of the and its financing and canital — + 339 —262 + 42 — 58 year for• With to run Total ,narket" factor, —941 +1.271 — 443 —3.874 —3.789 plans September. expenditures continuing above earlier projections, with the possible suspension of oil import fees, and with a decision to maintain a DIrect Federal R.,.re. credit trais.astl.ne higher average cash balance, the Treasury raised its esti- in Open market operations (subtotal) + 748 —1.757 + +3.067 mates of needed financing. Borrowing requirements OutrIghtholdings: the second half of 1975 are now expected to total $44 — — Treasury aecuritlee + 116 55 186 +1.901 +1.182 billion to $47 billion, up from the $41 billion figure esti- Bankers' acceptances + 10 — 20 — + 32 + 15 mated in August.
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