Technological Forecasting – a Review
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Forecasting Innovation Pathways for New & Emerging
Forecasting Innovation Pathways: The Case of Nano-enhanced Solar Cells Alan L. Porter,i Ying Guo,ii Lu Huang,iii Douglas K. R. Robinsoniv ABSTRACT We have recently devised a 10-step framework to extend research profiling to help identify promising commercialization routes for a target emerging technology. Our approach combines empirical and expert analyses. We herein illustrate this framework for the case of nano-enhanced solar cells. INTRODUCTION Our endeavors should be considered within the context of Future-oriented Technology Analyses (“FTA” – see http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/). Over the years, FTA tools have expanded from technology forecasting of incrementally advancing technologies (for example, consider Moore‟s Law describing some six decades of continual advances in semi-conductor capabilities). 1 Today, considerable interest is directed toward New & Emerging Science & Technologies (“NESTs”) as increasingly, NESTs are anticipated to provide considerable wealth creation. These forms of technologies tend to be less predictable than incremental innovation processes; they are more dependent on discontinuous advances; and the anticipated (disruptive) impacts on markets and on society are difficult (although not impossible) to foresee. In our endeavor to grapple with this challenging situation, we seek to provide usable intelligence, not only to get a handle of the discontinuous development of NEST‟s, but also on the pertinent contextual forces and factors affecting possible technological innovation. However, technology opportunities analysis2 for NESTs poses notable challenges. Recently, we put forward our approach to Forecasting Innovation Pathways (“FIP”).3 That paper provides conceptual background for our endeavors to combine “Tech Mining” 4 and “Multi-path mapping.” 5 It explores the promise of this approach through its application to two illustrative innovation situations, for nano-biosensors and for deep brain stimulation. -
Future Technologies Conference (FTC) 2017 #FTC2017 November 29-30, 2017, Vancouver, Canada
Future Technologies Conference (FTC) 2017 #FTC2017 November 29-30, 2017, Vancouver, Canada SPONSORS AND PARTNERS CONFERENCE VENUE Pan Pacific Hotel Vancouver Suite 300-999 Canada Place, Vancouver British Columbia V6C 3B5, Canada IEEE VANCOUVER SECTION CONFERENCE AGENDA DAY 1 (29th November) DAY 2 (30th November) 7:30 am – 8:15 am Delegates Check-in 8:00 am Delegates Arrive 8:15 am – 10:30 am Conference Opening (Oceanview Suite) 8:30 am – 10:30 am KEYNOTE TALKS (Oceanview Suite) Mohammad S. Obaidat, Fordham University KEYNOTE TALKS Ann Cavoukian, Ryerson University John Martinis, Google Kevin Leyton-Brown, University of British Columbia Peter Mueller, IBM Research James Hendler, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) 10:30 am – 11:00 am Networking Break (Foyer) 10:30 am – 11:00 am POSTER PRESENTATIONS (Foyer) 11:00 am – 12:30 pm PAPER PRESENTATIONS Session 9 - Intelligent Systems 11:00 am – 12:30 pm PROJECT DEMONSTRATIONS (Oceanview Suite) Session 10 - Technology Trends Session 11 - Electronics 12:30 pm – 1:30 pm Lunch (Cypress Suite) 12:30 pm – 1:30 pm Lunch (Cypress Suite) 1:30 pm – 3:30 pm PAPER PRESENTATIONS 1:30 pm – 3:30 pm PAPER PRESENTATIONS Session 1 - Computing Session 12 - Blockchain Session 2 - Software Engineering Session 13 - Ambient Intelligence Session 3 - Intelligent Systems Session 14 - Healthcare Technologies Session 4 - e-Learning Session 15 - Security and Privacy 3:30 pm – 3:45 pm Networking Break (Foyer) 3:30 pm – 3:45 pm Networking Break (Foyer) 3:45 pm – 5:45 pm PAPER PRESENTATIONS 3:45 pm – 6:00 pm PAPER PRESENTATIONS -
Considering Multiple Futures: Scenario Planning to Address
U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Considering Multiple Futures: Scenario Planning To Address Uncertainty in Natural Resource Conservation Cover photo: Moose in mist at Aroostook National Wildlife Refuge in Maine. Credit: Sharon Wallace This publication has met scientific peer review standards and been approved for publication in accordance with U.S. Geological Survey Fundamental Science Practices. Authors: Erika L. Rowland1, Molly S. Cross1, Holly Hartmann2 *Author for correspondence ([email protected]) 1 Wildlife Conservation Society, Bozeman, MT 2 University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ Guide Development Team: Kurt Johnson (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), Donna Brewer (USFWS), Michelle Haynes (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), Richard Sojda (U.S. Geological Survey), Kathryn Irvine (USGS) Rowland, E.R., Cross, M.S., Hartmann, H. (2014) Considering Multiple Futures: Scenario Planning To Address Uncertainty in Natural Resource Conservation. Washington, DC: US Fish and Wildlife Service. Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..............................................................vii SECTION 1 SCENARIO PLANNING AND ITS APPLICATION .............................1 1.1 WHAT IS SCENARIO PLANNING AND WHY IS IT HELPFUL? . 2 Importance of incorporating uncertainty into natural resource management................3 Scenario planning as a tool for dealing with uncertainty..................................4 1.2 WHEN SHOULD SCENARIO PLANNING BE USED? . 9 Levels of uncertainties, -
Technology and Engineering International Journal of Recent
International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering ISSN : 2277 - 3878 Website: www.ijrte.org Volume-8 Issue-2S6, JULY 2019 Published by: Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication d E a n n g y i n g o e l e o r i n n h g c e T t n e c Ijrt e e E R X I N P n f L O I O t T R A o e I V N O l G N r IN n a a n r t i u o o n J a l www.ijrte.org Exploring Innovation Editor-In-Chief Chair Dr. Shiv Kumar Ph.D. (CSE), M.Tech. (IT, Honors), B.Tech. (IT), Senior Member of IEEE Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering & Sciences Publication, Bhopal (M.P.), India. Associated Editor-In-Chief Chair Prof. MPS Chawla Member of IEEE, Professor-Incharge (head)-Library, Associate Professor in Electrical Engineering, G.S. Institute of Technology & Science Indore, Madhya Pradesh, India, Chairman, IEEE MP Sub-Section, India Dr. Vinod Kumar Singh Associate Professor and Head, Department of Electrical Engineering, S.R.Group of Institutions, Jhansi (U.P.), India Dr. Rachana Dubey Ph.D.(CSE), MTech(CSE), B.E(CSE) Professor & Head, Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Lakshmi Narain College of Technology Excellence (LNCTE), Bhopal (M.P.), India Associated Editor-In-Chief Members Dr. Hai Shanker Hota Ph.D. (CSE), MCA, MSc (Mathematics) Professor & Head, Department of CS, Bilaspur University, Bilaspur (C.G.), India Dr. Gamal Abd El-Nasser Ahmed Mohamed Said Ph.D(CSE), MS(CSE), BSc(EE) Department of Computer and Information Technology , Port Training Institute, Arab Academy for Science ,Technology and Maritime Transport, Egypt Dr. -
Causal Layered Analysis — Deepening the Future
Causal Layered Analysis — Deepening the future Sohail Inayatullah This article is from Sohail Inayatullah, Questioning the Future: methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation. Tamsui, Tamkang University Press, 2005/7. While macrohistory structures the study of the future through time, in this article, the future is deepened through causal layered analysis (CLA). Causal layered analysis is concerned less with predicting a particular future and more with opening up the present and past to create alternative futures. It focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of futures—in contrast to techniques such as emerging issues analysis, scenarios, and backcasting—and more on the vertical dimension of futures studies, of layers of analysis. Causal layered analysis opens up space for the articulation of constitutive discourses, which can then be shaped as scenarios. In essence, CLA is a search for integration in methodology, seeking to combine differing research traditions. Rick Slaughter considers it a paradigmatic method that reveals deep worldview commitments beneath surface phenomena. 1 Writes Slaughter: Causal layered analysis ... provides a richer account of what is being studied than the more common empiricist or predictive orientation which merely ‘skims the surface’. But because mastery of the different layers calls for critical and hermeneutic skills that originate in the humanities, some futures practitioners may find the method challenging at first.2 This article intends to reduce the possible difficulties in understanding and using causal layered analysis by providing a methodological perspective to the context of critical futures research, namely, poststructuralism. Causal layered analysis has been successfully used in a variety of workshops and futures courses in the last sixteen years. -
INAYATULLAH, Sohail. Causal Layered Analysis
Futures, Vol. 30, No. 8, pp. 815–829, 1998 Pergamon 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain 0016–3287/98 $19.00 ϩ 0.00 PII: S0016–3287(98)00086-X CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS Poststructuralism as method Sohail Inayatullah Causal layered analysis is offered as a new futures research method. It utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor. The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing. 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved In the context of using poststructuralism as a research method, this article introduces a new futures research method—causal layered analysis (CLA). Causal layered analysis is concerned less with predicting a particular future and more with opening up the present and past to create alternative futures. It focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of futures—in contrast to techniques such as emerging issues analysis, scenarios and back- casting—and more on the vertical dimension of futures studies, of layers of analysis. Causal layered analysis opens up space for the articulation of constitutive discourses, which can then be shaped as scenarios. Rick Slaughter considers it a paradigmatic method that reveals deep worldview committments behind surface phenomena.1 Writes Slaughter, ‘Causal layered analysis... provides a richer account of what is being studied than the more common empiricist or predictive orientation which merely ’skims the sur- face’. -
Taking Futures Seriously: Forecasting As Method in Robotics Law and Policy
DRAFT We Robot 2019 Taking Futures Seriously: Forecasting as Method in Robotics Law and Policy Stephanie Ballard and Ryan Calo University of Washington Tech Policy Lab Seattle, WA, USA A central challenge in setting law and policy around emerging technology is predicting how technology will evolve. In failing to consider the future of technology, we are often left with laws and policies that fall short of our technological reality. The 99th United States Congress had no experience with the commercial internet, for example, leaving it ill-equipped to envision the future of communications technology or to understand how widespread access to citizen information would need to be regulated. Indeed the laws Congress passed in 1986, which still govern electronic communications to this day, made assumptions about the nature of remote computing that have not obtained for decades. In the 1990’s, the Department of Transportation envisioned that driverless cars would ride upon “smart” roads, similar to a trolley. The DOT issued extensive guidance along these lines—proposing, for instance, heavy investment in infrastructure. Today, autonomous vehicles are on the roads in several states, but they do not run on tracks. Instead, they are self- contained robots capable of sensing and responding to ordinary environments. The difficulty in predicting the trajectory of new technology can give rise to a number of unfortunate consequences regarding policy. One is staleness—outdated rules, such as the 1986 law governing electronic communications privacy, that nevertheless persist through inertia or entrenched interest. A second is waste—the over-investment in a particular instantiation of a technology, such as the investment in “smart” infrastructure by the DOT in the 1990’s. -
VFS Primer on Foresight and Futures Studies
Primer on Foresight and Futures Studies This page intentionally left blank Reframing the future Vision Foresight Strategy LLC (VFS) is a Honolulu-based firm that provides foresight and strategic analysis services to senior organizational leaders operating in contexts of high complexity and high uncertainty. Drawing upon a global network of academically trained futurists, seasoned global executives, and experienced management consultants, VFS offers clients a spectrum of services that stretch from original forecasts and scenario projects to organizational foresight training to strategy development. VFS was founded by Dr. Richard Lum, who holds a doctorate from the futures studies program at the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa. VFS teams are routinely composed of futurists trained in the two longest-running futures studies programs in the United States: the University of Hawai‘i and the University of Houston. VFS team members have been published in the Journal of Futures Studies, the journal Futures, the journal Foresight. Dr. Lum was a founding member of the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) and is a full member of the World Futures Studies Federation. VFS’ core expertise is the integration of formal futures studies methods with strategic thinking and strategy development. Client deliverables typically include trend and emerging issues analyses, original scenario forecasts, vision (preferred futures) development, strategy development workshops, and foresight skill development. Since the company’s founding in 2001 it has participated in scenario projects for clients such as the US Army Logistics Command, the UK Government, PepsiCo, Grant Thornton UK, and numerous other organizations. VFS team members have conducted foresight, horizons scanning, scenario, and strategy work for a variety of clients and projects that include: Futurium (the European Union’s experimental platform for crowdsourcing scanning and foresight for policy), US Pacific Command, the UK Defra Baseline Scan, the UK Foresight Programme, and the State Justice Institute. -
Policy Challenges of Accelerating Technological Change: Security Policy and Strategy Implications of Parallel Scientific Revolutions
Policy Challenges of Accelerating Technological Change: Security Policy and Strategy Implications of Parallel Scientific Revolutions James Kadtke and Linton Wells II Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) National Defense University (NDU) September 2014 Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. All information and sources in this paper were drawn from unclassified materials. Dr. James Kadtke is currently the Special Advisor on Converging Technologies at the Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University; he is also a consultant in the Washington, DC area focusing on emerging technologies, national security, organizational foresight, and innovation. Previously, he served as a Fellow in the Science and Technology Policy Institute under the White House OSTP, and as policy analyst on the Science Committee in the U.S. House of Representatives. He then served over three years on the staff of Senator John Warner of Virginia and as staff designee on the Senate Armed Services Committee. More recently, he has served as Executive Director of the Accelerating Innovation Foundation, and a research fellow at the National Defense University and George Mason University. From 2010 to 2012, he was the Industry and State Liaison at the National Nanotechnology Coordinating Office under the White House. Dr. Linton Wells II is a Visiting Distinguished Research Fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University. Previously he was the Director of the Center for Technology and National Security Policy at NDU. -
Educational Technology Use in Neurodiagnostic Clinical Skills Training Margaret Ann Marsh-Nation Walden University
Walden University ScholarWorks Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection 2019 Educational Technology Use in Neurodiagnostic Clinical Skills Training Margaret Ann Marsh-Nation Walden University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations Part of the Curriculum and Instruction Commons, Instructional Media Design Commons, and the Neuroscience and Neurobiology Commons This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection at ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Walden University College of Education This is to certify that the doctoral dissertation by Margaret Ann Marsh-Nation has been found to be complete and satisfactory in all respects, and that any and all revisions required by the review committee have been made. Review Committee Dr. Carla Johnson, Committee Chairperson, Education Faculty Dr. Michael Marrapodi, Committee Member, Education Faculty Dr. Danielle Hedegard, University Reviewer, Education Faculty Chief Academic Officer Eric Riedel, Ph.D. Walden University 2019 Abstract Educational Technology Use in Neurodiagnostic Clinical Skills Training by Margaret Ann Marsh-Nation MS, Walden University, 2011 BS, Capella University, 2009 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Educational Technology Walden University February 2019 Abstract The current shortage of clinical sites for neurodiagnostic technology (NDT) students is limiting enrollments and subsequently limiting graduates from NDT schools in the U.S. A lack of knowledge or consensus concerning the use of educational technology in NDT clinical skills training prompted this investigation. -
Improving the Army's Next Effort in Technology Forecasting
Improving the Army’s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting John Lyons, Richard Chait, and Simone Erchov, Editors Center for Technology and National Security Policy National Defense University September 2010 The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. All information and sources for this paper were drawn from unclassified materials. Paul Bartone is a Senior Research Fellow in the CTNSP Life Sciences Directorate. He has conducted numerous field studies of stress, health and adaptation among military personnel and their families, covering deployments ranging from the Gulf War to Bosnia. He is a past-President of the Society for Military Psychology, Division 19 of the American Psychological Association. He is a charter member of the Association for Psychology Science, and a Fellow of the American Psychological Association. He earned a B.A. in Psychology, magna cum laude, from the University of Massachusetts and a Masters and PhD in Psychology and Human Development from the University of Chicago. Richard Chait is a Distinguished Research Fellow at CTNSP. He was previously Chief Scientist, Army Material Command, and Director, Army Research and Laboratory Management. Dr. Chait received his PhD in Solid State Science from Syracuse University and a BS degree from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. T.R. Govindan is the manager of the ARO Quantum Information Science Program, through which he co-manages several quantum information science programs for other agencies of the Federal Government. He also chairs a coordinating group of program managers involved in quantum information science programs. -
New Technologies and Their Role in Australia's Security, Cultural, Democratic, Social A
At last – a narrative for Australia For many years we have debated where we are heading as a nation. We have been fortunate to have had a relatively prosperous and happy existence and tend to think that this is a direct result of our abundance of minerals and our agricultural production. While our prosperity has been dependent on resources it has only worked because we have been world class in our production techniques and the technology and scientific research that sits behind them. Make no mistake, Australia is not alone in having huge quantities of iron ore: Brazil has just as much and it is generally higher grade. We compete against the world for our economic success. But what of the future? We seem to have no clear narrative other than that as a small nation we must compete against the rest of the world. And the future can be frightening when one notes the way technology is utterly changing the landscape. Some of the wilder predictions suggest that by 2030, 80% of all jobs will be in firms or institutions that don’t exist now. Aviva Rutkin writing in the MIT Technology Journal1 on the jobs of the future suggested that around half of all currently existing jobs in the USA would be automated by 2030. The good news of course is that while technology is destroying jobs it is also creating jobs. Our narrative then is clear: we must pursue innovation through technology as the main contributor to our future prosperity and happiness. The new jobs generated will allow us to compete with the world.