IOM's Disaster Risk Reducon in North Kivu

IOM DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO IOM’s Disaster Risk Reducon in North Kivu SITUATION UPDATE REPORT 01 October 2014 Figure 1a. The city of Goma aer the Nyiragongo volcanic erupon of 17 January 2002. © IOM 2002 (Photo: Dario Tedesco) In this issue Background the natural disaster viewpoint. It is built between the two most acve volcanoes in The Western branch of the Eastern African Africa and on the shore of a lake with a Ri is characterized by eight volcanoes giganc carbon dioxide and methane located on the borders between Uganda, Background reservoir at its boom, in a highly seismic Rwanda and the Democrac Republic of region exposed to deadly natural carbon the Congo. Of these volcanoes, only two Why build a dioxide emissions from the soil, acid rains (Figure 1b), on the Congolese side, are conngency plan due to the scrubbing of the big volcanic currently acve: Nyiragongo and plume by rain waters, landslides and Mount Nyamulagira: Nyamulagira. mudflows, which have caused tenths of Acvity, scenarios, possible deaths in recent past, and lacking access to On 17 January 2002, two lava flows from good‐quality groundwater. All these consequences and Nyiragongo volcano invaded Goma in a few human interacon natural phenomena have caused significant hours, one of them reaching Lake Kivu. By human and economic losses throughout the me the erupon ended, 13 per cent of Mount Nyiragongo: the city’s history. Over the last decade, the city was completely destroyed. The Acvity, scenarios, though, rapid populaon growth has possible Nyiragongo showed for the second me in created the condions for an exponenal consequences and 25 years its devastang impact, leaving increase in disaster risk. human interacons more than 200 persons dead and 130,000 people homeless. For the above reasons, Disaster Risk Historical acvity Reducon Programmes are highly needed of Mount The city slowly recovered from this for the city of Goma. IOM, as the Camp Nyiragongo catastrophic natural event, and started Coordinaon and Camp Management lead expanding dangerously towards the Forecast for the agency in natural disaster situaons, is volcano. Houses rapidly colonized the implemenng a pilot project that started in volcanic acvity newly formed lava, oen the only land of Nyiragongo February 2014, directly parcipang to affordable to the hundreds of thousands of build a conngency plan that will help newcomers who arrived in the city fleeing enhance the capacity of several conflict and economic hardship or aracted government enes (e.g. the Goma by local income opportunies, mostly Volcano Observatory and the Civil Defence unaware of the risks they were facing. of the Democrac Republic of the Congo) as well as increase awareness, Today, Goma is considered to be one of the preparedness and resilience of the local most dangerous cies on the planet from populaon. 1 Mount NYAMULAGIRA Mount VISOKE Mount MIKENO Mount NYIRAGONGO Mount KARISIMBI KILOMETRES Figure 1b. The two only acve volcanoes located within the area, Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira, are located at the central part of the Western branch of the Eastern African Ri. Why build a conngency plan In geology, the general principle is that “the past is the A conngency plan (CP) represents the main tool key to the future”. However, for natural occurrences authories deploy in the event of a large‐scale and such as landslides, flooding and mudflows, somemes catastrophic event occurring in their community. In the climate is the major factor. The said principle is always plan, necessary arrangements are made in advance true for volcanic erupons and earthquakes which tend to enable mely, effecve and appropriate responses to have return periods that are close to the duraon of to any crisis. human lives: an erupon or a quake that occurred hundreds or over just tens of years ago may be ready to A CP, specifically one related to natural disaster happen again. To create an aconable CP, scenarios and prevenon and/or migaon, is based on scenarios of models of past acvies represenng the future events possible natural disasters (e.g. volcanic erupon, need to be constructed, taking into account a large earthquake, flooding, landslide and mudflow). This type variety of informaon. The two main factors to consider of CP is based on past natural disasters and their are the impact scale (measured in terms of loss of lives severity. The possibility that these events will occur in or properes for an event of a given intensity) and the the future allows a community to build a plan in order to probability of occurrence (the stascal likelihood that migate damages caused by these future hazard an event of a given strength will occur in a certain occurrences. Apart from surveillance acvies and period). The second parameter is extremely difficult to scenarios, the CP involves coordinaon and instuonal correctly evaluate. preparedness, and educaon and sensizaon of, and communicaon to, at‐risk communies in order to The CP is a strategic document or tool any community increase local preparedness and resilience. facing natural or human‐made hazard should have in order to migate and/or prevent damages to property Past events are studied and interpreted by sciensts. and loss of lives, though the role of the CP in this aspect Their work needs to be as accurate as possible, looking could be limited. It is, by definion, an extremely into the available literature and, most of all, conducng dynamic tool that should be changed any me the field studies. This will allow for the development of a condions of a hazard source (e.g. a volcano) or of the clear understanding of the potenal for future events. community at risk change. The laer would be the case of a marked populaon increase or land use change in the hazard exposed area. Contact: Laurent DE BOECK, Chief of Mission, IOM Democrac Republic of the Congo | [email protected] | www.drcongo.iom.int 2 Mount Nyamulagira: Acvity, scenarios, possible consequences and human interacon The Nyamulagira volcano is considered, in terms of erupve events, the most acve in Africa. An average erupve event from the volcano usually lasts from few weeks (like the erupon on 2–27 January 2010) up to three years (such as the erupve event in 1938–1940). In the past 80 years, an erupve occurrence has taken place generally every two or three years. Mount Nyamulagira is considered less dangerous than its neighbour, Mount Nyiragongo, as the former is more Figure 3a. The photo shows fractures from the crater of Nyamulagira to distant from any major urban centre. However, Mount the southern flank. Nyamulagira’s plume might present a threat for local populaons and flights operang in the area. In recent years, the town of Sake has been rapidly expanding northwards, whose populaon now stands at more than 100,000. Nyamulagira is becoming a greater threat due to this expansion of human selements. Its acvity, therefore, needs to be taken into account, and monitoring must become a priority. Its lava flows can be extremely fast due to the low viscosity (poor‐silica content) of the lava. Mount Nyamulagira also demonstrates much higher lava flow rates and volumes Figure 3b. A part from the fractures from the main crater of Nyamulagira, of magma erupted than Mount Nyiragongo. the photo also shows the 2010 erupve cone being the terminal/ connuaon of two main "scars" on the southern flank of the volcano. Below are two potenal scenarios. The first scenario in Figure 2a (which occurred in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2011) shows acvity concentrated to the north, north‐eastern and north‐western sides of the volcano. In contrast, Figure 2b (which occurred in 2006 and 2010) shows a scenario in which lava will flow towards the southern flank of the volcano. Erupons of Nyamulagira are generally preceded by a series of smaller and related volcanic seismic events. In these events, local seismicity, rarely felt by humans, in the form of seismic swarms, occurs under the push of the rising magma. It can last between few hours and few days. These smaller events, if adequately monitored, can be a detectable warning of an incoming erupon. However, several seismic swarms, over the course of several months or years, can take place before an erupve event will occur. Determining if the erupon will occur through the northern or the southern flank of the volcano is a major difficulty. The seismicity will produce cracking of the volcano and the (re)acvaon or opening along the flank of its erupve fractures (Figures 3a and 3b). Before the lava reaches the surface, emission of smoke will increase from different parts of the volcano, mainly from the most fragile areas (such as the last erupve sites and old fractures). Visual observaons of these sites combined with Figure 2a and 2b. Two possible scenarios: (a) flow to the north/east or recording of the seismic acvity and possibly satellite west; (b) flow to the south. data can help to figure out where the erupon will Contact: Laurent DE BOECK, Chief of Mission, IOM Democrac Republic of the Congo | [email protected] | www.drcongo.iom.int 3 likely take place. The erupve acvity usually starts with these two scenarios is that they would start from intense lava fountains (Figure 4a) several hundred different points at varying altudes. An erupon from a metres high. A spaer cone (Figure 4b) will then form lower point of origin (and closer to urban selements) from the accumulaon of fallen materials (e.g. ashes, would probably be characterized by interacons scoria and lava). Finally, a lava flow will form and run the between the rising magma and the groundwater located higher‐slope path (Figure 3b).

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