Extreme Ground Motions and Yucca Mountain
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Extreme Ground Motions and Yucca Mountain Open-File Report 2013–1245 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior SALLY JEWELL, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2013 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Suggested citation: Hanks, T.C., Abrahamson, N.A., Baker, J.W., Boore, D.M., Board, M., Brune, J.N., Cornell, C.A., Whitney, J.W, 2013, Extreme ground motions and Yucca Mountain: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013–1245, 105 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131245. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. ISSN 2331-1258 Cover. Yucca mountain crest with a dusting of snow, looking north. Photo from the Department of Energy, Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Extreme Ground Motions and PSHA .......................................................................................................................... 7 Geologic and Tectonic Setting of Yucca Mountain ..................................................................................................... 9 The “Million-Year-Old Landscape” ............................................................................................................................ 16 The Many Dimensions of Extreme Ground Motions ................................................................................................. 20 Physical Limits to Earthquake Ground Motion .......................................................................................................... 25 Unexceeded Ground Motion ..................................................................................................................................... 30 Lithophysal Units ................................................................................................................................................... 30 Precariously Balanced Rocks (PBRs) ................................................................................................................... 33 Event Frequencies .................................................................................................................................................... 39 Exceptionally Large PGAs and PGVs ................................................................................................................... 41 Normal-Faulting Surface Displacements ............................................................................................................... 44 mb-M Stress Drops for Continental Crustal Earthquakes ...................................................................................... 45 Magnitude-Dependent Apparent Stress? .............................................................................................................. 48 Points in Hazard Space ............................................................................................................................................ 50 Simplified Hazard Models ..................................................................................................................................... 51 Physical Limits ...................................................................................................................................................... 53 Unexceeded Ground Motions ............................................................................................................................... 54 Lithophysal Fragilities ............................................................................................................................................ 58 PBR Fragilities ...................................................................................................................................................... 59 Fragile Geologic Structures that Evolve with Time ................................................................................................ 63 Discussion and Implications...................................................................................................................................... 67 The End…of the Beginning ....................................................................................................................................... 70 Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................................................... 72 References ............................................................................................................................................................... 73 Appendix I. Data for Exposure-Age and Erosion-Rate Determinations ..................................................................... 79 10Be Analytical Methods, Data-Reduction, and Exposure Age Calculations ......................................................... 82 36Cl Analytical Methods and Data Reduction ........................................................................................................ 83 36Cl Exposure Age Calculations ............................................................................................................................ 84 References ............................................................................................................................................................ 84 Appendix II. Erosion-Rate Estimates from Detritus Volumes on the West Face of Yucca Mountain......................... 86 Appendix III. Fragility Data and Calculations for the Lithophysal Units ..................................................................... 90 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 90 2.0 Geology of the YMP Repository Host Rock Mass ...................................................................................... 90 2.1 Topopah Spring Formation ...................................................................................................................... 90 2.2 Nonlithophysal Subunits of the Topopah Spring Formation ..................................................................... 91 2.3 Lithophysal Subunits of the Topopah Spring Formation ........................................................................... 92 3.0 Use of Lithophysae and Tptpll Fracture Fabric as a Marker for Extreme Ground Motion ........................... 93 3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 93 3.2 Approach to Establishing Unexceeded Shear-Strains .............................................................................. 94 3.3 Analysis of Expected Failure Observations if Threshold Shear Strains are Exceeded ............................. 98 4.0 Development of a Bounded Horizontal PGV Hazard Curve for the Yucca Mt. Site .................................. 100 4.1 Site Response Modeling and Development of Bounded PGV Distributions ........................................... 100 4.2 Development of a Bounded Horizontal PGV Hazard Curve for Yucca Mountain ................................... 103 References .......................................................................................................................................................... 105 iii Figures 1. Google Earth image overlain on a digital elevation map, color-coded according to elevation, looking northeast over Bare Mountain and Crater Flat to Yucca Mountain and beyond, southwestern Nevada ........ 2 2. Aerial photo looking southeast across the steep west face of Yucca Mountain, the ~10-million-year-old scarp of the Solitario Canyon Fault at its base............................................................................................... 3 3. Plot showing probability-of-exceedance calculations for horizontal peak ground acceleration at Point A, a hypothetical, reference rock-outcrop site at the repository horizon ............................................................. 5 4. Plot showing probability-of-exceedance calculations for horizontal peak ground velocity at Point A, a hypothetical, reference rock-outcrop site at the repository horizon ................................................................ 6 5. Simplified geologic map showing principal faults, blocks, and volcanic centers from Yucca Mountain to Bare Mountain. ............................................................................................................................................ 11 6. Cross section showing interpretation of seismic profiling