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Development of Energy and Emission Control Strategies for Iran

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Development of Energy and Emission Control Strategies for Iran Development of Energy and Emission Control Strategies for Iran Zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines DOKTORS DER WIRTSCHAFTWISSENSCHAFTEN (Dr. rer. pol.) von der Fakultaet für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Universität Fridericiana zu Karlsruhe (TH) genehmigte DISSERTATION von M.E. Nasrin Rostamihozori Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 14. Februar 2002 Referent: Prof. Dr. O. Rentz Korreferent: Prof. Dr. G. Nakhaeizadeh 2002 Karlsruhe I am grateful to the numerous persons who have commented on various portions of this study, as it was developed and to Prof. Dr. O. Rentz for his advice. I thank Prof. Dr. G. Nakhaeizadeh and Prof. Dr. U.Werner for taken over the responsibility of referees. Nasrin Rostami hozori March 2001 Development of Energy and Emission Control Strategies for Iran CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... I 1 ENERGY ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT IN IRAN............................................ 1 1.1 Situation of the Country and Economic Development ................................................... 1 1.1.1 Geography Overview .................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Population...................................................................................................................... 2 1.1.3 The Structure of the Iranian Economy .......................................................................... 3 1.1.4 Economy Policy Framework......................................................................................... 8 1.1.5 The Exchange Rate System......................................................................................... 10 1.1.6 Iran's Foreign Economic Relations ............................................................................. 11 1.2 Analysis of Energy Structure in Iran ............................................................................. 13 1.2.1 Domestic Primary Energy Resources and Supply....................................................... 15 1.2.2 Energy Consumption in Iran ....................................................................................... 30 1.2.3 Institutional Structure of the Energy Sector................................................................ 37 1.2.4 Energy Policy and Strategy......................................................................................... 38 1.3 Environmental Situation in Iran..................................................................................... 42 1.3.1 Air Pollution Situation and Emission Sources in Iran................................................. 43 1.3.2 Environment Institutional Framework ........................................................................ 50 1.3.3 Environmental Policy and Strategies .......................................................................... 51 2 METHODS AND TOOLS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT .................... 58 2.1 A Review of Energy-Environment Models .................................................................... 58 2.2 The EFOM-ENV Model................................................................................................... 64 2.2.1 Development of the EFOM-ENV Model to PERSEUS.............................................. 70 2.2.2 Principle of the Mathematical Formulation ................................................................ 72 2.3 Development of a Energy Planning Model for Iran...................................................... 78 2.3.1 The EFOM-ENV Model Version for Iran................................................................... 79 2.3.2 The Oil Sector ............................................................................................................. 81 2.3.3 The Gas Sector ............................................................................................................ 85 2.3.4 The Energy Conversion Sector ................................................................................... 90 2.4 Emission Reduction Components ................................................................................... 94 2.4.1 Emission Factors ......................................................................................................... 94 2.4.2 SO2 Emission Reduction Technologies....................................................................... 99 2.4.3 Available NOx Reduction Strategies and Technologies............................................ 102 2.4.4 CO2 Control Measures .............................................................................................. 103 2.5 Environmental Externalities ......................................................................................... 105 2.5.1 Health Effects of Air Pollution.................................................................................. 106 2.5.2 Ambient Air Quality Standards................................................................................. 107 2.5.3 Economic Analysis of Environmental Externalities ................................................. 108 3 BASIC ASSUMPTIONS AND DEFINITION OF SCENARIOS ............................ 111 3.1 Basic Assumptions for Scenario Analysis .................................................................... 111 3.2 Definition of Scenarios................................................................................................... 116 3.2.1 Emission Reduction Scenario for Iran (Reference Scenario).................................... 116 3.2.2 Emission Reduction Scenario for Tehran.................................................................. 118 3.2.3 Externalities Impact Scenario for Tehran.................................................................. 119 3.3 Limitation of the Approach........................................................................................... 120 4 RESULTS OF DIFFERENT ENERGY AND EMISSION CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR IRAN .............................................................................................................. 122 4.1 Energy Supply and Emission control Strategies for Iran (Reference)...................... 122 4.1.1 Effects of Different Energy Demand Scenarios........................................................ 131 4.1.2 Variation of the Exchange Rate of US$ .................................................................... 138 4.1.3 Emission Reduction Strategies.................................................................................. 139 4.2 Emission Reduction Scenario for Tehran .................................................................... 153 4.2.1 The Impact of Energy Demand Scenarios on the Growth of Emissions in Tehran .. 157 4.2.2 Emission Reduction Strategies in Tehran ................................................................. 160 4.3 Externalities Impacts Scenario for Tehran.................................................................. 168 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......................................................................... 173 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................... 181 LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1: Key Economic Indicators in 1999 [ 229].................................................................. 5 Table 1-2: The Future Plans of Gas Exports [ 44] ................................................................... 21 Table 1-3: The Coal Reserves in Iran (Mt) [ 193].................................................................... 22 Table 1-4: Forecast of Final Energy Consumption in Iran, 2000-2004 (PJ) [ 117] ................. 35 Table 1-5: The Forecast of the Petroleum and Gas demand in Iran, 1996-2026 [ 64]............. 36 Table 1-6: The Metal Smelt Industries in Iran [ 230]............................................................... 44 Table 1-7: Air Pollution Concentration (annual averages in Tehran 1989-91) [ 229]............. 47 Table 1-8: The Sectoral Amount of Different Pollutants (t) in Tehran (1996) [ 115] ............. 49 Table 1-9: Comparison of Energy Consumed in Iran and Industrialized Countries [ 236] ..... 54 Table 1-10: The Consequences of Subsidy Removal (1997) [ 83] .......................................... 55 Table 2-1: Nominal Capacity of the Refineries in Iran (1999) ................................................ 82 Table 2-2: The Production Capacity of Oil Products in the Refineries (m³/day) in 1998 [ 122] .......................................................................................................................................... 83 Table 2-3: The Gas Treatment Plant (1999) [ 122].................................................................. 87 Table 2-4: The Gas Pipeline System [ 122] ............................................................................. 87 Table 2-5: The Power Plants installed in Tehran [ 193]........................................................... 92 Table 2-6: The Industrial Producers in 1997 [ 192]................................................................. 93 Table 2-7: SO2 and CO2 Emission Factors used in the Model................................................. 98 Table 2-8: NOx Emission Factors for the energy sector in Iran ............................................... 98 Table 2-9: WHO Air Quality Guidelines [ 237] .................................................................... 108 Table 2-10: The Externalities of Power Plants [ 171]...........................................................
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