Central Corridor Supplemental DEIS Chapter 6: Transportation
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Central Corridor LRT Project Chapter 6 Transportation Effects 6.0 TRANSPORTATION This chapter provides an analysis of the transportation impacts of the Central Corridor Light Rail Transit (LRT) Project alternatives described in Chapter 2 of this document. The chapter describes the Key Project Elements and their associated changes to the adopted Locally Preferred Alternative (LPA). Evaluation of these alternatives is based on the projected ridership, transportation network capacity, transportation system performance measures, traffic impacts to the roadway network, and anticipated construction impacts on these facilities. The data for the transit and roadway analyses were generated from the regional travel demand forecasting model used by the Metropolitan Council for the Twin Cities area. The methodology used to assess these impacts is consistent with those discussed in Chapter 6 of the Central Corridor Alternatives Analysis and Draft Environmental Impact Statement (AA/DEIS). Section 6.1 provides an overview of the methodology and anticipated effects on the existing and future transit operations based on the proposed changes to the AA/DEIS LPA. Section 6.2 provides an overview of the methodology and anticipated effects on the existing and future roadway traffic operations and on the 2030 transportation network based on the proposed changes to the AA/DEIS LPA. Section 6.3 discusses the long-term impacts of the proposed changes to the AA/DEIS LPA on parking, pedestrians, bicycles, and other transportation facilities. 6.1 Transit Effects 6.1.1 Methodology The transit analysis and ridership forecasts for each transit alternative were developed using the Metropolitan Council’s regional travel demand model set. The model set and its components are of the same type as those used in most large urban areas in North America. The model uses what is known as the standard four-step planning process of trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and traffic/transit assignment. The structure of the model and the process of applying it to transportation studies are consistent with the method endorsed by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The forecast year for the model is 2030. The primary inputs used in the model are the Central Corridor LRT Study Area population, employment, household and socioeconomic characteristics, parking costs, transit fares, automobile operating costs, and highway and transit levels of service (LOS). The model set simulates travel on the entire transit and highway system within the Twin Cities metropolitan area. As such, it contains all the existing and planned rail and bus lines. The model contains service frequency (i.e. how often trains and buses arrive at any given transit stop), routing, travel time, and fares for all these lines. In the highway system, all express highways and principal arterial roadways, and many minor arterial and local roadways are included. Results from the computer model provide detailed information relating to transit ridership demand. Estimates of passenger boardings on all the existing and proposed transit lines can be obtained from the model output. The model also generates a number of statistics that can be used to evaluate the performance of a transportation system at several levels of geographic detail. In the SDEIS, the evaluation of the No-Build Alternative, Baseline Alternatives and proposed modifications to the AA/DEIS LPA are made by comparing daily linked transit trips, unlinked Supplemental DEIS 6-1 June 2008 Transportation Effects Central Corridor LRT Project Chapter 6 trips by transit mode, bus and rail ridership within the study area, daily passenger miles and passenger hours of travel, station boardings on the LRT, and transportation system user benefits (TSUB). 6.1.2 Major Changes in Technical Assumptions Since the AA/DEIS was completed, several changes have occurred in the existing and planned transit system in the following areas: LRT alignment, station size and locations, supporting bus system, LRT end-to-end travel times, and a Vehicle Maintenance and Storage Facility in downtown St. Paul. Another significant change was the horizon year used in the travel forecasting model—in the AA/DEIS, the horizon year was 2020, but in the SDEIS it is 2030. Collectively, all these changes resulted in significantly higher ridership forecasts for all the SDEIS alternatives than for the AA/DEIS alternatives. The revised preliminary ridership forecasts are presented in this chapter. Final travel demand output based on revisions during preliminary engineering will be presented in the FEIS. 6.1.3 Description of Transit Service Plan The transit service plan associated with the No-Build Alternative, AA/DEIS LPA and the proposed changes to the LPA are restated briefly in this chapter to facilitate interpretation of ridership impacts. 6.1.3.1 No-Build Alternative The No-Build Alternative includes roadway and bus system improvements along the University Avenue and I-94 corridors as specified in the appropriate agency Transportation Improvement Programs (TIP) and 2030 Transportation Policy Plan for which funding has been committed. The current transportation and transit facilities and services, with minimal modifications or expansions, form the basis for this alternative. Further details describing the No-Build Alternative, and all regionally constrained projects included in it are documented in Section 2.3.1 of the AA/DEIS. Under the No-Build Alternative, transit service in the Central Corridor would be provided using four primary bus routes: 16, 21, 50, and variations of 94 as shown in Table 6-1. 6.1.3.2 Baseline Alternative The Baseline Alternative consists of improvements to the transit system that are relatively low in cost and the “best that can be done” to improve transit without major capital investment for new infrastructure. For the Central Corridor LRT project, the Baseline Alternative would use an enhanced Route 50 limited stop service along University Avenue to provide improved future transit service. This route would stop at the same locations as the proposed Central Corridor LRT station locations (including the revised downtown St. Paul alignment). Due to the lower loading capacity of buses versus light rail vehicles, the Baseline Alternative assumes shorter service headways of 6 minutes (7.5 was assumed for the AA/DEIS LPA) during peak hours to manage forecast loads. The Baseline Alternative would require 23 additional vehicles over existing service. Feeder bus service to the enhanced Route 50 would be required under the Baseline Alternative and would be identical to the service assumed for the Central Corridor LRT Alternative as described in this document and as illustrated in Figure 6-1. June 2008 6-2 Supplemental DEIS Central Corridor LRT Project Chapter 6 Transportation Effects Table 6-1 Transit Service Plan Headways (Minutes) Year 2030 Year Proposed Changes to 2000 No Build Baseline the AA/DEIS LPA 16 Peak 10 10 20 20 16 Off-peak 10 10 30 30 21 Peak 10 10 10 10 21 Off-peak 15 15 15 15 50 Peak 30 30 6 n/a 50 Off-peak 60 60 10 n/a 94 B Peak 20 30 30 30 94 B Off-peak 30 n/a n/a n/a 94C Peak n/a 30 30 30 94 C Off-peak 30 n/a n/a n/a 94 D Peak 20 20 20 20 94 D Off-peak n/a 30 30 30 LRT Peak n/a n/a n/a 7.5 LRT Off-peak n/a n/a n/a 10 Source: Metropolitan Council Engineering Services Consultant, March 2008 The current Baseline Alternative is slightly different from the one assumed in the AA/DEIS. Changes are summarized as follows: • Route 16 – AA/DEIS assumption of 10-minute all-day service frequency is modified to 20-minute peak period, 30-minute midday, evening, and weekend (same as AA/DEIS LPA service); • Route 50 (new Baseline Service) – AA/DEIS assumption of 15-minute peak/30-minute midday (no evening or weekend service) is modified to 6-minute peak/10-minute midday, evening and weekends; • Route 94B – Eliminated midday and weekend service; and • Route 94C – Eliminated weekday midday and evening service. 6.1.3.3 Proposed Changes to the AA/DEIS LPA From the standpoint of the overall transportation network, the most significant proposed change to the AA/DEIS LPA will occur on Washington Avenue on the University of Minnesota’s (U of M) East Bank campus. Proposed changes to the AA/DEIS LPA assume the LRT would operate at-grade on Washington Avenue—the AA/DEIS assumed the LRT would operate below-grade in a tunnel. Other proposed changes to the AA/DEIS LPA include changes to the location of LRT stations on the East Bank Campus. The Stadium Village Station would be located at the proposed U of M multi-modal center and the East Bank Station would be located on Washington Avenue at Union Street. Supplemental DEIS 6-3 June 2008 Central Corridor LRT Project Transportation Effects Chapter 6 FIGURE 6-1 PROPOSED CENTRAL CORRIDOR BUS ROUTE NETWORK June 2008 6-4 Supplemental DEIS Central Corridor LRT Project Chapter 6 Transportation Effects The service frequencies of the LRT service would continue to be the same as in AA/DEIS i.e. 7.5 minute in peak periods and 10 minute during midday period. The average operating speed of the LRT would be about 16 MPH. The total end-to-end travel time is projected to be about 40 minutes. There would be 20 stations along the alignment. The first five stations on the western portion of the alignment would be common to both the Central Corridor LRT and the Hiawatha LRT line. Intermodal connections with the underlying bus network would be provided at key stations. Bus routes 2, 3, 6, 8, 21, 53, 60, 62, 262, 63, 65, 67, 83, 84, 87, 134, 144 and all of the U of M bus routes would have intermodal connectivity with the Central Corridor LRT.