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Quarterly Review 2005:3 Central Bank of Malta Quarterly Review 2005:3 Vol. 38 No. 3 © Central Bank of Malta, 2005 Address Pjazza Kastilja Valletta CMR 01 Malta Telephone (+356) 2550 0000 Fax (+356) 2550 2500 Website http://www.centralbankmalta.com E-mail [email protected] Printed by Print It Printing Services Mosta, Malta All rights reserved. Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The Quarterly Review is prepared and issued by the Economics and External Relations Division of the Central Bank of Malta. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Bank. The cut-off date for statistical information pub- lished in this Review is 30 September 2005, except where otherwise indicated. Figures in Tables may not add up due to rounding. ISSN 0008-9273 (print) ISSN 1811-1254 (online) CONTENTS ECONOMIC SURVEY 1. Foreword 5 2. The International Environment 8 3. Monetary and Financial Developments 13 Box 1: Changes in the Monetary Policy Operational Framework of the Central Bank of Malta 22 4. Output, Employment and Prices 24 Box 2: Business Perceptions Survey - Third Quarter 2005 36 5. The Balance of Payments and the Maltese Lira 40 6. Government Finance 47 7. Financial Stability Analysis 51 NEWS NOTES 58 STATISTICAL TABLES 63 ABBREVIATIONS COICOP Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose cos. companies EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ECB European Central Bank ecu european currency unit EMU Economic and Monetary Union ERM exchange rate mechanism ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 ESCB European System of Central Banks ETC Employment and Training Corporation EU European Union FI fungibility issue GDP gross domestic product gov. government IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IMF International Monetary Fund MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MFI Monetary Financial Institution MFSA Malta Financial Services Authority MSE Malta Stock Exchange NACE Rev. 1 Statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community NPISH Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households NSO National Statistics Office OECD Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development OMFI Other Monetary Financial Institution OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries Q quarter UNDP United Nations Development Programme WTO World Trade Organisation ECONOMIC SURVEY 1. FOREWORD euro at the agreed central parity rate had a positive impact on financial market sentiment. Indeed, after stabilising in May and June, the Bank’s net On 2 May 2005, the Maltese lira entered the foreign assets increased strongly in July and Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) of August, though this was also because of the European Union at a central parity rate of seasonal factors. In addition, the removal of the MTL/EUR 0.4293.1 The Maltese Authorities pound sterling and the US dollar – which offered decided to maintain the MTL/EUR exchange rate relatively high interest rates – from the currency at the central parity rate in ERM II, eschewing the basket upon ERM II entry automatically led to an use of the permitted fluctuation bands. The increase in the interest rate differential in favour of change in the peg did not affect the level of the the Maltese lira. exchange rate of the Maltese lira, which entered the Mechanism at the MTL/EUR rate prevailing at Domestic money market interest rates rose in line the close of the previous trading day. Since with official rates in April, but then remained entering ERM II, the MTL/EUR rate has remained stable during the rest of the second quarter and unchanged from the central parity rate. into the third. As a result, and also because the corresponding euro interest rate declined slightly Prior to ERM II entry, on 8 April 2005, the Central during this period, the three-month premium on Bank of Malta raised the central intervention rate the Maltese lira widened from 93 basis points at by 25 basis points to 3.25%. The rate rise the end of March to 124 basis points five months followed a decline in the Bank’s net foreign assets later. The ten-year premium on the Maltese lira during the final quarter of 2004 that continued in also widened, to 136 basis points in August from the following quarter. Although the loss of 110 basis points in March. In this case, however, reserves reflected the effects of trade and capital this was because euro area bond yields fell faster liberalisation and a higher fuel import bill, the than those on domestic bonds. Bank considered that pressures on the balance of payments were being compounded by strong Monetary growth recovered during the second growth in credit to the personal sector. Hence, quarter, with broad money (M3) putting on 1.9% the increase in interest rates was intended to curb following a modest rise in the previous three excessive credit growth, dampen inflationary months. Monetary expansion was driven almost pressures and help correct the existing imbalance entirely by growth in the net foreign assets of the between saving and spending. banking system, with an additional contribution from domestic credit, which largely continued to During the remainder of the second quarter and reflect borrowing by the personal sector to finance throughout the third, the Bank left the central the construction or purchase of houses. M3 intervention rate unchanged, judging that it contracted in July, mainly as a result of a shift by provided adequate support to the exchange rate. households from bank deposits into alternative The entry of the Maltese lira into ERM II and the assets, but rose again in August as the net commitment of the Monetary Authorities to foreign assets of the banking system increased maintain the exchange rate for the lira against the further. 1 The exchange rate is being quoted in terms of units of Maltese lira per euro. Central Bank of Malta Quarterly Review 2005:3 5 Economic activity in Malta regained momentum into additional jobs, unemployment also rose. The during the second quarter of 2005, with real GDP results of the latest Labour Force Survey show expanding by 2.4% on a year earlier, up from an that the labour force expanded by 2.1% during the annual growth rate of 0.2% in the previous three second quarter of 2005 compared to the same months. The acceleration was driven by period a year earlier. Although the employed investment spending and inventory changes. In population increased by 1.6%, mainly reflecting contrast, consumption and net exports continued increased part-time employment in the private to fall on an annual basis, although in each case sector, the number of the unemployed rose even the decline was less pronounced than that more rapidly. Consequently, the unemployment recorded in the first quarter. rate, which had dropped in the previous two quarters, went up to 7.8%. The Survey data, Nominal GDP growth also picked up in the however, contrast with information on the number second quarter. Gross value added expanded by of registered unemployed, which dropped 4.1% on a year earlier as its two principal significantly between March and June. components, compensation of employees and operating surplus, increased. The rise in gross Inflation was broadly stable during the second value added was spread across all the major quarter, with food and fuel prices being the primary sectors of the economy, although financial sources of inflationary pressures during the year to intermediation and the real estate, renting & other June. The twelve-month moving average inflation business activities sector posted especially strong rate, based on the Retail Prices Index, edged up to gains. Mounting fuel costs, however, continued 2.9% in June. The year-on-year inflation rate was to weigh heavily on the economy, as shown by more volatile during the quarter, but ended June at the losses recorded in the electricity, gas and 2.9%, down from 3.1% three months earlier. water supply sector. Inflation eased slightly going into the third quarter, with the twelve-month moving average rate and the According to the Bank’s latest business year-on-year rate dropping to 2.7% and 2.5%, perceptions survey, the recovery in business respectively, in August. confidence shown in the previous survey was not sustained.2 Although most firms expected the The deficit on the current account of the balance general economic situation over the next six of payments widened during the second quarter of months to remain the same, the proportion of 2005, rising to Lm43.9 million from Lm22.9 million a those expecting an improvement declined. The year earlier. This mainly resulted from a shift in swing in sentiment was spread across both the income account, which swung into deficit as a export- and domestically-oriented firms, with the result of increased profits recorded by foreign- manufacturing sector, in particular, being generally owned firms operating in Malta. To a lesser extent, pessimistic. However, in terms of their own the widening also reflected a larger merchandise performance, the majority of respondents were trade gap. Together, these factors outweighed a anticipating an increase in activity, with turnover higher surplus on services and a smaller deficit on and profitability expected to rise. the current transfers account. After excluding movements in international reserves, net outflows During the second quarter, although increased on the capital and financial account declined, economic activity appears to have been translated partly because of increased receipts of official 2 The survey was carried out between July and August 2005. 6 Central Bank of Malta Quarterly Review 2005:3 transfers from Italy and the EU. Data for July year. Similarly, during the first half of the year, the show a marginal narrowing of the trade gap, as deficit on the Consolidated Fund narrowed by imports fell faster than exports.
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