Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments

Daniel Steinfeld1, Maxi Boettcher1, Richard Forbes2, and Stephan Pfahl3 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom 3Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Correspondence: Daniel Steinfeld ([email protected])

Received: 8 February 2020 – Discussion started: 17 February 2020 Revised: 15 June 2020 – Accepted: 28 July 2020 – Published: 24 August 2020

Abstract. Recent studies have pointed to an important role resent an important and challenging aspect of midlatitude of latent heating during cloud formation for the dynamics weather variability. Atmospheric blocking leads to persistent of anticyclonic circulation anomalies such as atmospheric changes in the large-scale circulation and blocks the west- blocking. However, the effect of latent heating on blocking erly flow (Rex, 1950; Woollings et al., 2018), often causing formation and maintenance has not yet been fully elucidated. anomalous, sometimes extreme, weather (Green, 1977) in a To explicitly study this cause-and-effect relationship, we per- situation of increased forecast uncertainty in weather models form sensitivity simulations of five selected blocking events (Pelly and Hoskins, 2003; Rodwell et al., 2013). with the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) global weather Despite its importance, there is currently no comprehen- prediction model in which we artificially eliminate latent sive theory of blocking (for a review see Tyrlis and Hoskins, heating in clouds upstream of the blocking anticyclones. This 2008). Several dynamical processes have been identified to elimination has substantial effects on the upper-tropospheric be conducive to blocking formation, such as planetary-scale circulation in all case studies, but there is also significant wave dynamics (e.g., Charney and DeVore, 1979; Hoskins case-to-case variability: some blocking systems do not de- and Valdes, 1989; Petoukhov et al., 2013), forcing by tran- velop at all without upstream latent heating, while for others sient eddies (e.g., Shutts, 1983; Luo et al., 2014), and Rossby the amplitude, size, and lifetime of the blocking anticyclones wave breaking (Pelly and Hoskins, 2003; Altenhoff et al., are merely reduced. This strong influence of latent heating 2008), with evidence that different processes can dominate on the midlatitude flow is due to the injection of air masses in different blocking cases (Nakamura et al., 1997; Drouard with low potential vorticity (PV) into the upper troposphere and Woollings, 2018; Steinfeld and Pfahl, 2019). Atmo- in strongly ascending “warm conveyor belt” airstreams and spheric blocking occurs when an air mass with anoma- the interaction of the associated divergent outflow with the lously low potential vorticity (PV) is advected poleward, upper-level PV structure. The important influence of diabatic related to a meridionally amplified flow (Nakamura and heating demonstrated with these experiments suggests that Huang, 2018), setting up a large-scale negative (anticyclonic) the accurate representation of moist processes in ascending PV anomaly in the upper troposphere at the level of the mid- airstreams in weather prediction and climate models is cru- latitude jet stream and a stable surface anticyclone under- cial for blocking dynamics. neath (Hoskins et al., 1985). Such large-scale advection of anticyclonic air masses into the blocking region typically oc- curs on the downstream side of developing baroclinic waves (e.g., Colucci, 1985; Mullen, 1987; Nakamura and Wallace, 1 Introduction 1993; Yamazaki and Itoh, 2012), which is the synoptic mech- anism behind the classical “eddy-mean flow” view, i.e., the The formation and maintenance of prolonged anticyclonic dynamical interaction between synoptic transient eddies and circulation anomalies, denoted as atmospheric blocking, rep-

Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 406 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments the large-scale blocked flow (Berggren et al., 1949; Green, so, changes in the formation and maintenance of blocking in 1977; Shutts, 1983; Hoskins et al., 1983). these simulations can be attributed to altered LH upstream. While these studies focused on dry-adiabatic mechanisms The sensitivity experiments are presented as follows. Sec- and the isentropic advection of low-PV air, recent case tion2 describes the methodology, while Sect.3 introduces (Croci-Maspoli and Davies, 2009; Lenggenhager et al., 2019; one blocking event as an example with a synoptic overview. Maddison et al., 2019) and climatological (Pfahl et al., 2015; The results of the sensitivity experiments are presented in Steinfeld and Pfahl, 2019) studies based on air parcel tra- Sect.4, and our conclusions are summarized and discussed jectory calculations demonstrated that moist-diabatic pro- in Sect.5. cesses, and in particular latent heating (LH) during cloud formation in strongly ascending airstreams, play a signifi- cant role in the dynamics of blocking. The primary effect 2 Methods of latent heat release on blocking is the diabatic genera- 2.1 Model setup tion and amplification of upper-level negative PV anomalies (Pfahl et al., 2015). This amplification results from the injec- This work is based on numerical simulations with ECMWF’s tion of low PV into the upper troposphere in cross-isentropic global Integrated Forecast System (IFS) cycle 43R1, which ascending airstreams and the interaction of the diabatically was operational between November 2016 and July 2017. The enhanced divergent outflow with the upper-level PV struc- model is run at a cubic spectral truncation of TCo319, which ture at the tropopause (Steinfeld and Pfahl, 2019). For ex- corresponds to roughly 32 km grid spacing, and with 91 verti- ample, these diagnostic studies have shown that LH occurs cal hybrid pressure–sigma levels with a vertical resolution in predominantly in the warm conveyor belt (WCB; Wernli, the upper troposphere of about 10–25 hPa (ECMWF, 2016a). 1997; Methven, 2015) of extratropical cyclones and is gen- ECMWF operational analysis fields are used for initial con- erally most important during blocking onset and in more in- ditions. The 3-hourly output fields, including physical tem- tense and larger blocks. In addition, the repeated injection of perature tendencies, are interpolated to a regular grid at 1◦ diabatically heated low-PV air during the blocking life cy- horizontal resolution. cle, associated with a series of transient cyclones approach- In the IFS sub-grid-scale processes are represented by var- ing the block, can act to maintain blocks against dissipa- ious parametrization schemes (ECMWF, 2016b). The cloud tion. These findings complement the large body of previ- and large-scale precipitation microphysics scheme, based ous work that found LH to be important for the development on Tiedtke(1993), includes five prognostic variables (cloud of midlatitude weather systems, such as cyclones (Ahmadi- fraction, cloud liquid water, cloud ice, rain, and snow) with Givi et al., 2004; Binder et al., 2016), anticyclones (Quinting associated sources and sinks (Forbes et al., 2011; Forbes and and Reeder, 2017; Zschenderlein et al., 2020), Rossby waves Ahlgrimm, 2014; Ahlgrimm and Forbes, 2013). Convection (Grams et al., 2011; Röthlisberger et al., 2018), and Rossby is parametrized according to Tiedtke(1989) and Bechtold wave breaking (Zhang and Wang, 2018). et al.(2008), with a modified CAPE closure (Bechtold et al., Nevertheless, as these previous studies have used diagnos- 2013). tic methods to determine statistical relationships between LH and blocking, this does not necessarily mean that LH has a 2.2 Sensitivity experiments strong causal impact on blocking. The effect of LH on block- ing, and for Rossby wave dynamics at the tropopause in gen- The effect of cloud-diabatic heating on atmospheric blocking eral, is still not completely understood. It is a challenge to is investigated with sensitivity experiments by comparing the quantify the impact of LH, mainly because LH is strongly full-physics control simulation including LH (hereafter re- coupled to the dry dynamics of baroclinic waves and the as- ferred to as CNTRL) to the corresponding simulation without sociated adiabatic advection of PV (e.g., Kuo et al., 1990; LH (NOLH). LH is artificially turned off by multiplying the Teubler and Riemer, 2016). The question of whether LH crit- instantaneous temperature tendencies due to parameterized ically modifies the development of blocking, which is other- cloud and convection processes with a factor α = 0.0, but wise mostly affected by dry dynamics, and the investigation still allowing for moisture changes due to cloud and precip- of the corresponding cause-and-effect relationship is the fo- itation formation. Other nonconservative processes, such as cus of this study. radiative heating and turbulent mixing, which can also mod- The main objective of this paper is to study the sensitiv- ify PV (Spreitzer et al., 2019; Attinger et al., 2019), are not ity of atmospheric blocking to changes in upstream LH in altered. numerical model simulations. The effects of LH on the de- In contrast to previous numerical sensitivity studies that velopment (onset, maintenance, and decay) of five different investigated cyclone dynamics and modified LH everywhere blocking events are studied in detailed model-based sensitiv- in the model domain (e.g., Kuo et al., 1990; Stoelinga, 1996; ity experiments, in which cloud-related LH is altered in the Büeler and Pfahl, 2017), here LH is only modified in the re- storm track region upstream of the block and compared to gion that is identified to be directly relevant for the blocking control simulations with unmodified upstream LH. In doing system, which is typically the WCB ascent region associated

Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments 407 with upstream extratropical cyclones (Steinfeld and Pfahl, The role of LH in explosively developing cyclones has been 2019). In doing so, we can attribute the changes in the struc- studied in great detail, and thus we focus on the evolution ture of the blocking in these simulations to the altered LH and structure of upper-level blocking here. However, to bet- in the confined upstream region, while allowing for heating ter understand such nonlinear interactions and their effect and cooling everywhere else in the global domain. To define on the large-scale flow, we additionally conduct sensitivity the heating region objectively, location and time of strongest experiments with reduced LH (α = 0.5) and increased LH increase in potential temperature are determined along back- (α = 1.5) for one specific blocking event. ward trajectories initiated in the upper-tropospheric block- ing in the CNTRL simulation. Our experiment aims to sup- 2.3 Diagnostic methods press strongly ascending airstreams like WCBs that lead to a strong divergent outflow and the presence of diabatically A combination of Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics is ap- modified PV at the tropopause. Heating along the WCB by plied to study and quantify the processes involved in the de- cloud microphysical processes and convection is strongest in velopment of blocking, and in particular the role of latent the lower and middle troposphere (Joos and Wernli, 2012; heat release in ascending airstreams. The term “upper level” Oertel et al., 2019). In order to isolate the effect of this LH, is used hereafter to describe the vertically averaged flow be- a three-dimensional box is placed over the main heating re- tween 500 and 150 hPa. gion, which is kept fixed during each NOLH simulation, and 2.3.1 Atmospheric blocking tracking LH is only modified in this box. The box has a vertical extent between 900 and 500 hPa and a horizontal extent which is ad- Following Schwierz et al.(2004a), blocking is identified and justed for each blocking case (see Table1). It should be kept tracked as upper-level negative PV anomalies. The anoma- in mind that other microphysical processes, such as ice-phase lies are calculated with respect to the calendar-month av- microphysics close to the outflow level, can also contribute erages over the ERA-Interim reanalysis period 1979–2016 to the heating and PV modification along the WCB (Joos and (Dee et al., 2011) and temporally smoothed with a 2 d run- Wernli, 2012). As these processes also occur above 500 hPa, ning mean filter. Different thresholds for intensity, persis- our approach does not fully remove all cloud-related LH, and tence, and quasi-stationarity have been tested in order to there is still moderate heating and cooling outside of the box. ◦ track and compare upper-level negative PV anomalies in both Near the edges of the box (in a zone of 5 horizontally and CNTRL and NOLH simulations. In all simulations, blocks 50 hPa in the vertical), the temperature tendency multiplying are identified with a threshold of −1 pvu and a spatial overlap factor alpha is interpolated linearly to obtain a smooth tran- of 80 % between two consecutive time steps. No persistence = sition from α 0.0 to 1.0. criterion is applied. The reason for this is that the tracked The sensitivity experiments are performed for five selected negative PV anomalies in the NOLH simulations are weak case studies of blocking events (Table1). The simulations are (see below) and would not be classified as persistent blocks run for 10 d. We chose the initialization time for each case (see also Croci-Maspoli et al., 2007). Nevertheless, all block- based on two requirements: (1) LH has to be removed early ing events investigated here also fulfill the stricter blocking enough to ensure its contribution to the initial ridge ampli- criteria used, e.g., by Steinfeld and Pfahl(2019) in the CN- fication is minimal and (2) the CNTRL simulation needs to TRL simulation. The advantage of the PV-anomaly-based in- adequately simulate the development of the observed block, dex is that it objectively captures the core of the anomalous as verified visually against ECMWF analysis. For all cases, anticyclonic circulation and thus directly allows for an in- the simulations are initialized during the intensification phase vestigation of the origin and evolution of individual blocks of an upstream cyclone, which is typically between 2 and and the associated air masses. A number of relevant block- 3 d prior to blocking onset. The blocking decay is not al- ing characteristics and their evolution are calculated during ways captured in the 10 d simulations, as many blocks per- the blocking life cycle, such as location of the blocking cen- sisted longer. Although a 10 d forecast simulation does not ter (center of mass), spatial extent, blocking intensity (area- perfectly match observations/analysis (see Fig. S4), espe- averaged upper-level negative PV anomaly), and lifetime. cially during blocking situations with increased forecast un- The calculated quantities are area-weighted. certainty (e.g., Tibaldi and Molteni, 1990; Pelly and Hoskins, 2003; Matsueda, 2009), such differences do not affect the 2.3.2 Effects of latent heating conclusions obtained from the sensitivity experiments, since we compare simulations with LH (CNTRL) to simulations To capture the full three-dimensional complexity of LH in as- without LH (NOLH). cending airstreams and to quantify its effect on blocking dy- LH in extratropical cyclones is coupled to and interacts namics, a combined Eulerian and Lagrangian perspective is with other processes, and hence its artificial removal can adapted. The effects of LH on the upper-tropospheric PV dis- affect many aspects of the flow, such as the cyclone in- tribution are quantified as follows. tensification and its baroclinic coupling to the upper-level trough (e.g., Hoskins et al., 1985; Ahmadi-Givi et al., 2004). https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 408 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments

Table 1. Selected historical blocking events. The LH contribution has been determined from backward trajectory calculations. The initializa- tion time is the same for both CNTRL and NOLH simulations. Note that “Thor onset” and “Thor maintenance” are different phases of the same blocking event.

Experiment Flow Initiation time Region NOLH box LH contribution pattern CNTRL NOLH Russia omega 29 Jun 2010 Western Russia (35–65◦ N, 60–0◦ W) 42 % 29 % Canada omega 27 Apr 2016 Pacific–America (35–65◦ N, 180–120◦ W,) 52 % 20 % Thor onset dipole 30 Sep 2016 Atlantic–Europe (35–65◦ N, 60–0◦ W) 47 % 16 % Thor maintenance dipole 10 Oct 2016 Atlantic–Europe (35–65◦ N, 60–0◦ W) 34 % 12 % Cold spell dipole 18 Feb 2018 Atlantic–Europe (35–65◦ N, 60–0◦ W) 38 % 3 %

– Backward trajectories. To estimate the relative con- associated with the upper-level PV distribution. PV ad- tributions of dry (quasi-adiabatic transport of mass) vection by the divergent and rotational wind is averaged and moist (cross-isentropic transport of mass) pro- vertically between 500 and 150 hPa. cesses to upper-level negative PV anomalies that char- acterize blocking, we compute kinematic 3 d backward One limitation of this methodology is that the trajectories air-parcel trajectories based on the three-dimensional follow the resolved large-scale wind and do not capture fast wind using the Lagrangian analysis tool LAGRANTO convective motions. This might introduce an underestimation (Wernli and Davies, 1997; Sprenger and Wernli, 2015). of the contribution of LH from convection for the upper-level The trajectories are started from an equidistant grid flow evolution (Oertel et al., 2020). (1x = 100 km horizontally and 1p = 50 hPa vertically between 500 and 150 hPa) in the blocking region every 2.4 Selection of the cases 3 h, with the additional criterion that PV must be smaller than 1 pvu to exclude points located in the stratosphere. Atmospheric blocking covers a variety of flow patterns, in- Since both PV and potential temperature θ are con- cluding -shaped or high-over-low dipole blocks, which can served for adiabatic and frictionless motion, changes in occur all year round in different regions (Woollings et al., these variables between two time steps along a trajec- 2018). There is a large case-to-case and spatial variability tory are attributed to diabatic processes, such as cloud of the LH contribution to blocking, ranging between 35 % formation, radiation, and friction. Following the method and 55 % for the majority of observed blocking cases in the of Pfahl et al.(2015) and Steinfeld and Pfahl(2019), the global ERA-Interim climatology (Steinfeld and Pfahl, 2019). effect of LH is quantified by the percentage of block- To cover part of this variability, we perform sensitivity exper- ing trajectories with a maximum heating (Lagrangian iments for five different blocking events, which develop un- change of θ) of 1θ > 2 K during the 3 d prior to reach- der different environmental conditions (different seasons, ge- ing the blocking region (in the following denoted as ographical locations, and LH contribution), as summarized in LH contribution). Trajectories with 1θ < 2 K, which Table1. Blocks are selected from the main blocking regions also comprises air masses that experience net cooling over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, but also from a along the flow, are classified as quasi-adiabatic trajec- secondary region over Russia. Some of those blocks are as- tories. To define WCB trajectories, a slightly weaker sociated with extreme weather events: the 2010 summer heat ascent criterion of 500 hPa in 48 h is applied than in wave in western Russia, the devastating wildfires in Alberta, Madonna et al.(2014b) with 600 hPa in 48 h. Canada, in May 2016, and the cold spell in Europe in Febru- ary 2018 (dubbed the “beast from the east”). One of these cases, Thor (onset and maintenance) in the – PV advection. Considered an indirect diabatic effect year 2016, is used hereafter to introduce our method. There- of LH (Davis et al., 1993), the effect of the divergent fore, its evolution is described in detail in the following sec- outflow on the structure and development of block- tion. ing is evaluated here by calculating the PV advection by the divergent (irrotational) component (vχ · ∇PV) of the full wind following Riemer et al.(2008) and Ar- 3 Case study: block Thor chambault et al.(2013). The divergent wind is obtained via Helmholtz partitioning, using a successive over- Block “Thor” occurred over the North Atlantic and Eu- relaxation method. In addition, the role of the rotational rope in the period 2–19 October 2016, during the North (non-divergent) wind component (vψ ) is investigated, Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment which highlights the contribution of the balanced flow (NAWDEX; Schäfler et al., 2018). The onset of Thor was

Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments 409

Figure 1. Synoptic situation over the North Atlantic at (a) 18:00 UTC 1 October 2016 and (b) 09:00 UTC 11 October 2016. SLP (gray contours, every 10 hPa, solid to dashed contours at 1015 hPa) and upper-level PV (blue contours, 2 (solid) and 3 (dashed) pvu) from the IFS CNTRL run after (a) 42 h lead time for Thor onset and (b) 36 h lead time for Thor maintenance. Labels “T1–T4” mark troughs (cyclones) and “R1–R4” mark ridges (anticyclones) and are described in the text. Cloud-top heights (hPa, shading) from satellite imagery are based on EUMETSAT MSG-SEVIRI data (EUMETSAT, 2017).

Figure 2. Percentage of trajectories with 1θ > 2 K in 3 d (red, %), mean diabatic heating along the blocking trajectories (yellow, K, calculated as the mean change in θ along all (heated and non-heated) trajectories), blocking intensity (blue, right axis, pvu), and spatial extent (green, second right axis, 1012 m2) as a function of time (simulation lead time and date) for Thor onset and maintenance. Note that 3 d backward trajectories can only be calculated after day 3. Labels “T1–T5” and “R1–R5” refer to the troughs and ridges during the time of their interaction with the block Thor. Note that no block is detected between 9 and 11 October as a result of the 2 d temporal smoothing of the upper-level PV-anomaly field. associated with forecast uncertainty; in particular the pre- ber 2016, Fig.1b shows the maintenance phase of the block dictability of the upstream cyclone and its diabatic outflow Thor. At this point in time, Thor (R2) is characterized by was low (Maddison et al., 2019, 2020). a region of low upper-level PV, high surface pressure, and The complex interaction between an upstream cyclone, la- subsidence with low or no clouds over Scandinavia. Further tent heating, and the upper-level flow during the onset of upstream over the North Atlantic, two cyclonic systems (T3 Thor on 2 October 2016 is qualitatively illustrated in Fig.1a, and T4) are associated with strong cloud activity and ridge with cloud-top pressure from MSG satellite measurements amplification (R3 and R4). overlaid over the IFS CNTRL simulation after 2 d lead time. As the block persisted for more than 2 weeks, two sim- An intensifying North Atlantic cyclone (named Stalactite cy- ulations are performed here, capturing the onset (Thor on- clone in Schäfler et al., 2018) is associated with increased set: 30 September–10 October) and the maintenance/decay diabatic heating in the WCB, indicated by an elongated band (Thor maintenance: 10–20 October) phases. Note that only of high-reaching clouds and an upper-level trough that wraps the second period was named “Thor” in Schäfler et al.(2018), cyclonically around the surface low (labeled T1). The out- and the first period was referred to as Scandinavian block- flow of this ascending and cloud-producing airstream con- ing. However, from a “PV-anomaly” perspective, the entire curs with a pronounced poleward displacement of the upper- episode can be described as one persistent blocking event. level PV contours (labeled R1). This ridge building marks the onset of the block Thor. A total of 10 d later on 11 Octo- https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 410 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments

Figure 3. Upper-level PV (in potential vorticity units, shaded), upper-level divergent wind (black vectors according to reference vector, only shown for wind speed larger than 2 m s−1), geopotential height at 500 hPa (white contours every 100 gpm), cloud-diabatic (cloud microphysics and convection) heating (1 and 3 K (3 h)−1 in gray contours, vertically integrated between 900 and 500 hPa), SLP (solid black contours from 1000 hPa every −10 hPa, dashed contours from 1020 hPa every +10 hPa), and blocking region (violet contour for PV anomaly of −1 pvu) in the (a, c) CNTRL and (b, d) NOLH simulations at (a, b) 00:00 UTC 2 October 2016 (day 2) and (c, d) 15:00 UTC 5 October 2016 (day 6). Labels “T1–T5” mark troughs (cyclones) and “R1–R5” mark ridges (anticyclones) as described in the text. The black box in NOLH indicates the region where LH is turned off.

3.1 Synoptic overview Thor shows typically observed blocking characteristics (e.g., Dole, 1986), such as the rapid onset (fast increase in The life cycle of Thor is characterized by a succession intensity and spatial extent, Fig.2) on timescales consistent of multiple upstream triggers over the North Atlantic, with synoptic-scale phenomena (2–4 October) and the fluc- i.e., synoptic-scale baroclinic waves, their dynamic interac- tuation in intensity and size during the blocking lifetime (ma- tion with the jet stream, and the subsequent formation and ture phase: 5–17 October) until its decay (19 October). The maintenance of a downstream blocking anticyclone. Figure2 episodic nature of the LH contribution and the mean diabatic shows the temporal evolution of the LH contribution, mean heating highlight the importance of LH changes through- diabatic heating along blocking air masses, and blocking in- out the life cycle, alternating between times when either tensity and spatial extent for Thor in the two CNTRL simu- moist-diabatic (heating) processes or quasi-adiabatic (cool- lations (onset and maintenance). Figures3a, c and4a, c dis- ing mostly due to long-wave radiation) processes dominate: play aspects of the block’s evolution at upper levels (upper- the LH contribution is generally largest during onset (70 %) level PV and 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) giving an and then declines to the lowest value (almost 0 %) when the indication of the large-scale upper-level flow with the jet block decays. However, there are multiple bursts of LH (lo- stream following the band of enhanced PV/Z500 gradient) cal maxima of LH) during the life cycle, which are followed and lower levels (sea level pressure (SLP) and diabatic heat- by fluctuations in intensity and size. The block exhibits its ing). On the basis of the PV-anomaly index, the block Thor most rapid amplification during such LH bursts, suggesting is tracked from 2 to 9 October (onset simulation) and 11 to that there is a linkage between moist-diabatic processes and 19 October (maintenance simulation). the development of the block. Averaged over the entire life- time (onset and maintenance), Thor has a LH contribution

Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments 411

Figure 4. Same as Fig.3, but at (a, b) 09:00 UTC 11 October 2016 (day 2) and (c, d) 09:00 UTC 16 October 2016 (day 6). of 41 %; that is, almost half of the blocking air masses have (Fig.4a), the block R2 stays well established and stationary been diabatically heated by more than 2 K. over Scandinavia for the next few days, as the dipolar con- This episodic nature of LH emphasizes that a series of up- figuration over Europe generates an easterly flow at the lati- stream transient cyclones, rather than a single primary cy- tude of the jet (60◦ N), which counters the advection by the clone, contribute to block formation and maintenance. In this background westerly flow. This is also the time when abso- case, the upstream triggers (in total five) include a rapidly in- lute reversal blocking indices (e.g., the index described by tensifying cyclone (denoted as Stalactite cyclone in Schäfler Scherrer et al., 2006) identify the block (not shown). At this et al., 2018 and Maddison et al., 2019) ahead of an upper- point in time, the block is associated with a barotropic signa- level PV trough (labeled T1 in Fig.3a), which initiates down- ture with a surface high-pressure system and a tropospheric- stream ridge building R1 and the subsequent onset of the deep anticyclonic flow, splitting the upper-level westerly flow block on 2 October 2016. This is followed by a rapidly into northern and southern branches, as indicated by the propagating surface cyclone T2 from the southwest along Z500 contours in Fig.4a. In this split/diffluent flow region an intense baroclinic zone with strong poleward transport on the western side of Thor, a meridionally elongated PV fil- of low-PV air in secondary ridge R2, which further inten- ament T3 develops and is associated with cloud formation sifies and expands the initial blocking ridge formed by R1 and poleward transport of low-PV air along its eastern flank (outlined by the violet contour) and finally leads to anticy- in ridge R3. T3 and R3 are stretched meridionally between clonic wave breaking and the establishment of a stationary block Thor (R2) and a quickly amplifying ridge R4 to the dipole block over Europe (Fig.3c), resembling the classic west, and the air masses in R3 are absorbed into the block- dipole blocking structure with a negative PV anomaly to the ing anticyclone (Fig.4a). R4, associated with intense cloud north of a positive PV anomaly (or a positive geopotential formation in an ex-tropical cyclone T4 over the east coast anomaly north of a negative geopotential anomaly) described of North America (see again Fig.1b), extends rapidly and by Berggren et al.(1949) and Rex(1950). Maximum inten- replaces R2 and R3, thus maintaining a strong and large neg- sity of the simulated blocking in terms of upper-level nega- ative PV anomaly over northern Europe, contributing to the tive PV anomaly and spatial extent occurs around 8 October blocks’ persistence (not shown). There is a last absorption of (8 d into the Thor onset simulation; see Fig.2). During this low-PV air in ridge R5 before Thor finally decays (Fig.4c). mature phase, which extends into the maintenance simulation For this particular event, lysis is a comparatively slow pro- https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 412 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments

Figure 5. Upper-level 2 pvu contour (black line), SLP (gray contours, from 1000 hPa every −5 hPa), and blocking region (violet contour for upper-level PV anomaly of −1 pvu) for the (a, c) CNTRL and (b, d) NOLH simulations for the case Thor onset (a, b) and Thor maintenance (c, d). The 72 h backward trajectories started in the blocking region at 00:00 UTC 4 October 2016 in the onset simulations and at 00:00 UTC 13 October 2016 in the maintenance simulations and are shown as colored lines, with color indicating pressure (hPa). The black circles and triangles show the location of the heated (1θ > 2 K) and quasi-adiabatic (1θ < 2 K) trajectories 3 d prior to arrival in the blocking, respectively. (e, f) Median temporal evolution of θ and PV along heated (yellow) and quasi-adiabatic (blue) blocking trajectories for the (e) CNTRL and (f) NOLH simulations. The evolution was calculated from all trajectories during the entire blocking lifetime of Thor onset and Thor maintenance cases. Filled markers show the median for each airstream at the time of the arrival in the blocking region, and open markers show medians at days −1, −2, and −3 before arriving in the block. cess and is characterized by a synchronous decrease in the block (most evident during onset) or (ii) are already located intensity and spatial extent while the block slowly moves in the blocking region at day −3 and recirculate anticycloni- southeastward (not shown). cally within the block (evident during maintenance). The sec- The trajectory analysis in Fig.5 illustrates the origins ond type (black circles at day −3) consists of trajectories that and flow history of low-PV air in the blocking anticyclone. ascend rapidly from low levels (> 800 hPa) to higher levels Shown are backward trajectories emanating from the block (< 500 hPa) ahead of surface cyclones over the North At- during onset (Fig.5a) and maintenance (Fig.5c). It reveals lantic. These trajectories are heated by ∼ 10 K in the median, two distinct types of airstreams. The first type (marked with experience net diabatic reduction of PV, and reach the upper black triangles at day −3) consists of upper-level trajecto- troposphere with very low PV values (< 0.3 pvu, Fig.5e), ries that either (i) originate from the west and flow quasi- which corresponds to substantial negative PV anomalies (of horizontally (and quasi-adiabatically, i.e., weak radiative roughly −1 pvu in the median). Each scheme (cloud micro- cooling and small diabatic PV modification, Fig.5e) along physics and convection) contributes about 5 K to the total di- the upper-level jet (around the upstream trough) into the abatic heating along these ascending trajectories (not shown),

Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments 413 pointing towards the importance of convective processes for 4 Sensitivity experiments the generation of the negative PV anomaly (see Rodwell et al., 2013; Oertel et al., 2020). This cross-isentropic as- In the synoptic evolution of Thor and the other cases, we cent occurs primarily on the western flank of the block in re- observed the presence of upstream LH during the life cycle gions of strong cloud activity (see again Fig.1), intense latent of blocking. However, the extent to which the formation and heat release, and upper-level divergent outflow (Figs.3a, c maintenance of blocking was forced by LH remains unclear. and4a, c). A total of 15 % of these ascending trajectories As noted earlier the advection of low PV into the core of a fulfill the WCB criterion of 500 hPa ascent in 48 h and are block often alternates between moist-diabatic injection of air heated by more than 20 K in 3 d. The median evolution of θ from the lower troposphere and quasi-adiabatic advection of and PV (Fig.5e) along these two types of trajectories shows upper-level air. To isolate and assess the impact of LH on that the heated trajectories (1θ > 2 K, yellow line) typically blocking, in the following we compare the NOLH simula- reach higher (isentropic) altitudes with lower PV values com- tions without LH to the CNTRL simulations with LH. pared to quasi-adiabatic trajectories (1θ < 2 K, blue line), We first provide a synoptic comparison between CNTRL which underlines the importance of LH in generating intense and NOLH for Thor onset and maintenance, which helps upper-level anticyclonic PV anomalies. to illustrate the sensitivity experiments before discussing all five cases as well as the case-to-case variability. 3.2 Synoptic overview for the other cases 4.1 Thor: synoptic differences with and without LH Figures showing the synoptic evolution at 2 and 6 d lead time for the other three cases (Cold spell, Canada, and Russia) can Backward trajectories from Thor identify the North Atlantic be found in the Supplement (Figs. S1–S3 in the Supplement). storm track as the relevant diabatic heating region (see again Consistent with the evolution of Thor, the other blocking Fig.5a and c). Across much of the basin the heating (gray cases are initiated by and interact with upstream extratropi- contours in Figs.3a, c and4a, c) occurs in the warm sector cal cyclones. For the Cold spell case (Fig. S2), two North At- of cyclones. Therefore, the NOLH box is placed over 35– lantic upstream cyclones are present during onset (day 2, la- 65◦ N, 60–0◦ W, covering the entire North Atlantic basin, as beled T1) and the second intensification phase (day 6, labeled indicated by the black box in panels (b) and (d) of Figs.3 T2). The Canada case (Fig. S1) is only affected by one North and4. Pacific upstream cyclone during onset (day 2, labeled T1), Figure5b and d show that no strongly ascending air but this cyclone moves slowly and influences the block for masses contribute to the ridge amplification in the NOLH the next 4 d. The block in the Russia case (Fig. S3) is initi- simulations. During blocking onset (Fig.5b), mostly quasi- ated by a North Atlantic cyclone during day 2 (labeled T1). adiabatic and quasi-horizontal flow is associated with Thor. It then propagates further eastward and reaches its maximum In the maintenance simulation, which is initialized with a ma- amplitude over western Russia at day 6. ture dipole block (Fig.5d), the block is associated with quasi- Trajectory analysis for the cases Russia, Canada, and Cold adiabatic upper-level trajectories that recirculate anticycloni- spell shows a flow behavior similar to Thor, with air masses cally within the blocking anticyclone, without the ascending that either (i) flow quasi-adiabatically or (ii) ascend cross- airstreams linked to troughs T3 and T4 in the CNTRL simu- isentropically into the blocking region ahead of a cyclone lation. (not shown), with the strongest LH contribution during on- Turning off LH over the North Atlantic thus effectively set. The case Canada has a mean LH contribution of 52 %, reduces cross-isentropic transport and reduces the average and the cases Russia and Cold spell have a mean LH contri- LH contribution from 41 % (CNTRL) to 16.5 % (NOLH). bution of 42 % and 38 %, respectively (Table1). Note that the remaining heated trajectories in NOLH expe- These cases are typical of block formation after explosive rience considerably less heating (median of ∼ 2 K compared cyclogenesis (e.g., Colucci, 1985; Lupo and Smith, 1995; to ∼ 10 K in CNTRL, Fig.5e and f), but still with PV reduc- Maddison et al., 2019) with rapid ridge amplification of tran- tion along the flow, most likely due to ice microphysical pro- sient waves into a large-amplitude block (Altenhoff et al., cesses (e.g., depositional growth of snow and ice; see Joos 2008) and reinforcement by midlatitude eddies propagating and Wernli, 2012) at higher altitudes above the NOLH box into the strong deformation field on the western flank of (see method section). Overall, the non-heated quasi-adiabatic the block (Shutts, 1983; Colucci, 2001), resulting in large- trajectories in NOLH show a similar behavior as in the CN- amplitude upstream troughs and ridges and the subsequent TRL simulations. replacement and/or absorption of “fresh” low-PV air by the Given the changes in LH contribution and diabatic heating block (Yamazaki and Itoh, 2012; Luo et al., 2014; Steinfeld along the blocking trajectories, we now focus on the impact and Pfahl, 2019). While blocking patterns appear stationary, of LH on the upper-level synoptic-scale flow evolution of the upper-level flow is hence highly dynamic with old anti- Thor. Figures3 and4 compare upper-level PV, Z500, upper- cyclonic air masses being replaced by new ones. level divergent wind, SLP, and lower-level cloud-diabatic heating from the NOLH simulations to the corresponding https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 414 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments results from the CNTRL simulations. Note that the differ- reduced, and ridge R2 does not amplify (Fig.3d). This is ences between CNTRL and NOLH are initially weak (af- consistent with the position of T2 being too far south. In- ter 2 d in the Thor onset and Thor maintenance simulations) stead, R2 is deflected eastward by the westerly winds. As a but become more pronounced with lead time. Nevertheless, consequence, the low-PV region of R1 is cut off from the the early evolution highlights the critical phase when the two tropospheric reservoir, and a zonally oriented jet stream es- simulations start to deviate. tablishes over western Europe. Without LH, PV values in- side R1 are higher; i.e., the upper-level negative PV anomaly 4.1.1 Thor onset is weaker, resulting in a less pronounced anticyclonic flow over Scandinavia, as also evident from the Z500 contours. After 2 d, shortly before the incipient block in the CNTRL The upper-level synoptic features in NOLH are displaced fur- simulation is identified, remarkable differences in the upper- ther downstream, where the flow still splits with a weaker level PV and Z500 between the CNTRL (Fig.3a) and NOLH northern branch compared to CNTRL. (Fig.3b) simulations emerge in the region of ridge R1, with the largest differences in the dynamically active regions as- 4.1.2 Thor maintenance sociated with the latent heat release and divergent outflow of the heated trajectories. A trough–ridge pattern also evolves To better understand the role of LH in the persistence of in NOLH due to dry baroclinic development of T1, but, in blocking, we now focus on the Thor maintenance simula- the absence of LH, the amplitudes of the upper-level PV and tion. Both CNTRL and NOLH simulations start with a well- Z500 ridges and troughs as well as the intensity of the up- established dipole block over Europe and a large-scale difflu- stream cyclone (see SLP contours in Fig.3a and b) are clearly ent flow field upstream (visible in the Z500 contours), where reduced. This leads to a delayed onset of the block in NOLH a large region with low upper-level PV values covers most of compared to CNTRL by 1 d. Scandinavia on day 2 (R2 in Fig.4a and b). However, first Differences in the upper-level divergent wind are substan- pronounced differences in the divergent outflow strength and tial, indicating that diabatic heating significantly enhances the upper-level PV structure occur in the region of upstream the vertical motion and divergent outflow. Moist dynam- ridge R4 to the east of trough T4. In the absence of LH, ridge ics account for roughly two-thirds of the divergent outflow, R4 and consequently the PV streamer T3 are not as strongly which exceeds 10 m s−1 on the western flank of R1 in CN- extended in the meridional direction as they are in CNTRL, TRL compared to < 3 m s−1 in NOLH. In the CNTRL simu- despite being subject to a strong diffluent flow, suggesting lation, a comma-shaped diabatic heating pattern is co-located that the (dry) eddy straining mechanism (Shutts, 1983) does with the divergent outflow aloft, which compares favorably not fully explain the amplification of the incoming upstream with the cloud patterns in the satellite observations (Fig.1a) waves. As a consequence, R4 in NOLH does not replace the and the ascending heated trajectories (Fig.5a). The diver- initial negative PV anomaly R2 over Scandinavia (see Fig.4c gent wind above the cloud-diabatic heating maximum in and d). Without the diabatic contribution of “fresh” low-PV CNTRL aids the westward expansion of ridge R1 through air, and facilitated by the radiative decay (cooling and net the westward advection of air masses with low PV, shift- PV increase along upper-level trajectories) of the remaining ing the tropopause in the same direction and considerably air masses recirculating inside the block (Fig.5d and f), Thor strengthening the PV gradient (see details on PV advection weakens in the NOLH simulation and is no longer captured in Sect. 4.2.2). The cyclonic wrap up of high and low PV in by the blocking index on 15 October (day 5). In contrast, the the upstream trough T1 does not occur in NOLH, suggest- CNTRL block persists for another 4 d, also due to the addi- ing that this cyclonic wave breaking and the horizontal rear- tional absorption of anticyclonic air masses in R5 on day 6 rangement of upper-level PV essentially depend on intense (Fig.4c and d). LH. Further into the model integration on day 6 (Fig.3c and d), 4.1.3 Nonlinear effects of latent heating the differences between CNTRL and NOLH are considerably more pronounced, and it is clear that the large-scale flow de- In order to exemplify the nonlinearity of the relationship be- velops substantially differently without LH. With the con- tween LH and blocking, Fig.6 shows the 2 pvu tropopause tribution of LH in CNTRL, the secondary ridge R2 rapidly at day 3 and day 6 of Thor onset with and without LH, and amplifies and low-PV air is transported a long way pole- also with reduced LH (α = 0.5) and increased LH (α = 1.5). ward, causing (i) a southwestward extension of the initial The evolution of the tropopause shows a crucial sensitivity blocking region and (ii) a reinforcement of the anticyclonic to changes in LH with a non-monotonic behavior of block- anomaly formed by ridge R1 over Scandinavia (Fig.3c). The ing to LH. Note that the modifications of LH first become upper-level flow splits over central Europe with an acceler- apparent in the region of the NOLH box over the North At- ated southwest–northeast-tilted northern branch (jet stream), lantic and Europe and only spread out at longer lead times. evident from the Z500 contours in Fig.3c. When LH is During the onset phase (day 3, Fig.6a), the ridge has a larger turned off, however, the ascent and outflow are significantly amplitude and extends further to the west over Greenland

Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments 415

Figure 6. Dynamical tropopause (upper-level 2 pvu contour) for Thor onset on (a) 3 October 2016 (day 3) and (b) 6 October 2016 (day 6) for different α values (blue for α = 0 (NOLH), green for α = 0.5, yellow for α = 1 (CNTRL), and red for α = 1.5). with increasing LH, with cyclonic wrap-up of high and low in addition to dry-dynamical forcing, and repeated diabatic PV in the upstream trough most evident in the simulation injection of low PV can extend the lifetime of a block and with enhanced LH (α = 1.5, red contour). Consequently, the diminish the tendency for dissipation. downstream trough is also more amplified and narrows into a PV streamer in the simulations with unchanged (CNTRL, 4.2 Set of blocks: differences with and without LH yellow contour) and enhanced LH. The northward and west- ward amplification of the ridge is weaker in the simulations To evaluate the sensitivity experiments in a more robust and with reduced (green contour) and removed (NOLH, blue con- systematic way, we analyze a set of five historical blocks in tour) LH. During the mature phase (day 6, Fig.6b), LH total over different regions and in different seasons (see again (α = 1 and α = 1.5) leads to anticyclonic wave breaking and Table1). the formation of a stationary dipolar flow pattern over Eu- 4.2.1 Differences in upper-level PV structure rope with low PV to the north of a cutoff high-PV anomaly. In addition, the eastward propagation and zonal extent of the Figure7 shows the differences in the upper-level PV and upstream trough is slowed down, an effect of LH also ob- upper-level divergent wind between the NOLH and CNTRL served by Ahmadi-Givi et al.(2004). When LH is reduced or simulations (CNTRL–NOLH) during onset at day 3 for the switched off, the ascent and outflow are reduced (not shown), five blocking cases. While synoptic figures above (Figs.3,4, the ridge does not amplify as strongly, and, in the absence of and S1–S3) show that CNTRL and NOLH simulations start wave breaking, blocking is not initiated. Instead, the low-PV to deviate at day 2, by day 3 there are distinct differences in region is cut off from the tropospheric reservoir, surrounded the upper-level PV field. by high-PV stratospheric air and located further north above In all cases, the dynamical tropopause (2 pvu contour) is Svalbard. displaced much farther to the pole and west in the regions The comparison of the block Thor with and without LH re- associated with the divergent outflow in the CNTRL sim- veals some interesting differences and helps understand the ulations, along with pronounced differences in the upper- causal relationship between LH and blocking during the ini- level PV between the CNTRL and NOLH. The absence of tiation and maintenance/decay phases. This example illus- LH results in higher PV and thus in weaker anticyclonic trates how LH in ascending airstreams embedded in upstream anomalies in NOLH, which is reflected in negative PV dif- cyclones can play a crucial role in the initiation, but also in ferences of more than −1 pvu between CNTRL and NOLH, the maintenance of blocking, contributing to a more rapid reaching −3 pvu in the cases Thor onset and maintenance, development and longer lifetime of the block. This strong Cold spell, and Russia. At this time, the center of mass of the sensitivity of block development to changes in upstream la- tracked blocks in the NOLH simulations corresponds well tent heating further suggests that forecast uncertainty during with the blocking center in the CNTRL simulations (crosses blocking can arise from diabatic heating from parametrized and pluses in Fig.7). processes (e.g., Grams et al., 2018; Maddison et al., 2019). Despite the difference in the synoptic environment be- Moist-diabatic processes provide further flow amplification tween the five cases, it becomes evident that in each case https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 416 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments

Figure 7. Difference (CNTRL–NOLH) in upper-level PV (shaded in potential vorticity units), difference in upper-level divergent wind (vectors only shown for wind speed larger than 1 m s−1), and upper-level 2 pvu contour (solid for CNTRL, dashed for NOLH) after 3 d model simulation for (a) Thor onset, (b) Thor maintenance, (c) Canada, (d) Cold spell, and (e) Russia. “x” and “+” show locations of blocking centers for CNTRL and NOLH, respectively. strong LH embedded in the upstream cyclone substantially from LH. The diabatically enhanced divergent outflow tends contributes to this initial ridge amplification and the on- to facilitate the westward and poleward expansion of the set of the blocks. The most pronounced PV differences are ridge by advecting low PV in these directions. In addition co-located with the tropopause, i.e., the region of enhanced to the diabatic injection of low-PV air from the lower tropo- PV gradient, which has important implications for the prop- sphere in ascending airstreams (shown as an example for the agation of Rossby waves in the upper troposphere (Schwierz case Thor in Fig.5e and f), the divergent outflow contributes et al., 2004b; Martius et al., 2010). The more pronounced to the pronounced upper-level PV differences along the west- ridge also results in a more amplified downstream flow pat- ern flank of the ridges through this effect (see Sect. 4.2.2). tern in CNTRL, with the downstream trough penetrating fur- A few days later during the mature phase (6 d into the sim- ther equatorward in all cases. ulations), Fig.8 shows substantial differences in the upper- Differences in the upper-level divergent wind between level PV and upper-level rotational wind between the CN- CNTRL and NOLH are substantial in all cases (more than TRL and NOLH simulations. The initial PV differences con- 5 m s−1; see wind vectors in Fig.7). Given that the total fined to the northwestern flank of the ridges during onset, upper-level divergent wind in the CNTRL simulations is gen- i.e., early phase of the simulations, have amplified and prop- erally less than 10 m s−1 near the western flank of the ridges agated up- and downstream, leading to distinctively differ- (see wind vectors in left panels of Figs.3,4, and S1–S3), ent evolutions of the upper-level flow with strongly displaced these differences are considerable and it is clear that strong ridges and troughs and marked differences in the upper-level vertical motion (not shown) and upper-level divergence arise PV pattern. In all cases, the intensity and spatial extent of

Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments 417

Figure 8. Difference (CNTRL–NOLH) in upper-level PV (shaded in potential vorticity units), difference in upper-level rotational wind (vectors only shown for differences larger than 1 m s−1), and upper-level 2 pvu contour (solid for CNTRL, dashed for NOLH) after 6 d model simulation for (a) Thor onset, (b) Thor maintenance, (c) Canada, (d) Cold spell, and (e) Russia. “x” and “+” show locations of blocking centers for CNTRL and NOLH, respectively. the blocks are reduced in NOLH, which is reflected in nega- In the following, we take a closer look at the individual tive PV differences between CNTRL and NOLH. The largest cases. In Thor onset (Fig.8a), negative PV differences in- differences (1PV < −3 pvu) are found inside the blocking side the block and positive differences south of it indicate region, especially in the core (close to the center of mass the anticyclonic wrap-up of low- over high-PV air and the in Thor onset, Thor maintenance, Canada, and Russia) and formation of a dipole block with easterly winds in CNTRL, around the flanks of the block (Cold spell). Positive and neg- while in NOLH the negative PV anomaly is detached further ative upper-level PV differences are also found in the up- north above Svalbard as a tropospheric cutoff. stream and downstream troughs and ridges, indicating a shift In Thor maintenance (Fig.8b), the block is still present in in location. The diabatic intensification of the blocks in CN- CNTRL while it is already too weak to be detected in NOLH. TRL goes along with an amplified upper-level anticyclonic The poleward elongation of the CNTRL block is reflected in circulation (see wind vectors in Fig.8). The differences in the negative PV difference (1PV up to −4 pvu) with an anti- the upper-level rotational wind clearly reveal the intensi- cyclonic flow centered over Iceland. In NOLH, the decaying fied anticyclonic flow associated with the intense negative blocking ridge over Europe and the cutoff PV anomaly east PV anomalies of the CNTRL simulations, especially on the of Greenland do not merge (see discussion above). flanks around the negative PV differences, with substantial For the case Canada (Fig.8c), the omega-shaped structure wind speed differences of up to 40 m s−1 between CNTRL of the block with tilted upstream and downstream troughs is and NOLH. not reproduced without LH, and the NOLH block develops

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 418 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments as an open ridge embedded in a Rossby wave with a weak It is important to note that, while the upper-level diver- anticyclonic circulation over western Canada. gent wind is generally 1 order of magnitude smaller than In the case of Russia (Fig.8e), the initial PV differences the upper-level rotational wind, the PV advection by the two over western Europe propagated eastward and reached values wind components is of much more similar magnitude since of −5 pvu further downstream over western Russia at day 6, the divergent wind is typically parallel to the upper-level with a strong anticyclonic flow only present when LH is in- PV gradient (Steinfeld and Pfahl, 2019). For all cases, the cluded. negative PV advection by the divergent wind counteracts the In contrast to the other cases, the PV values inside the positive PV advection by the rotational wind on the north- block’s core are similar in CNTRL and NOLH for the Cold western flank during onset, resulting in a reduced positive spell case (Fig.8d). The largest negative PV differences are (for the cases Thor maintenance and Canada) or even in a found along the edge of the block, i.e., the block is smaller net negative (for the cases Thor onset, Cold spell, and Rus- in spatial extent in NOLH, and further south over the Azores, sia) PV advection by the total wind ((vχ + vψ ) · ∇PV, not where the NOLH block detaches from the tropospheric reser- shown). This negative PV advection by the divergent wind voir. on the western flank contributes to the initial negative PV dif- Interestingly, a common feature in several NOLH simula- ferences seen in Fig.7 and therefore contributes to the west- tions (Thor onset, Thor maintenance, Cold spell, and Russia) ward extension and quasi-stationary (slower eastward pro- is the formation of a low-PV anomaly that is cut off from gression) behavior of blocking (Mullen, 1987; Steinfeld and its tropospheric source and surrounded by high-PV strato- Pfahl, 2019), an effect of LH on upper-level waves also ob- spheric air (closed dashed contours in Fig.8a, b, d, and e). served in the sensitivity studies by Davis et al.(1993) and These cutoff anomalies are formed when the jet stream is re- Stoelinga(1996). Since forecast uncertainties during block- treating back to a more zonal flow. In contrast to the CNTRL ing onset often manifest on the western flank of the ridge simulations, they are not accompanied by a cyclonic anomaly (Matsueda, 2011; Quandt et al., 2018), we hypothesize that to the south, and therefore they do not constitute a stationary this is associated with the divergent outflow. dipolar flow pattern that generates stronger easterlies at the primary latitude of the jet. The typical inverse-S shape of 4.2.3 Differences in blocking characteristics and the 2 pvu contour during overturning Rossby waves, which case-to-case variability is used to describe blocking in association with wave break- ing (e.g., Pelly and Hoskins, 2003), is only simulated with Figure 10 shows a quantitative comparison of the temporal the inclusion of LH. The formation of such cutoff blocks evolution of blocking characteristics (LH contribution, mean in synoptic situations with reduced LH contribution is also diabatic heating along all blocking trajectories, intensity, and in agreement with the climatological composites in Stein- spatial extent) obtained from the CNTRL (solid lines) and feld and Pfahl(2019). This again highlights the role of LH NOLH (dashed lines) as a function of simulation lead time. in effectively displacing the jet stream far to the north and Note that the individual curves start as soon as a block is promoting persistent anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking. identified with the PV-anomaly index (see Sect.2) in the corresponding simulation. Characteristics based on 3 d back- 4.2.2 Differences in PV advection by the divergent ward trajectories (LH contribution and diabatic heating) can outflow only be obtained after at least 3 d of model integration time. The episodic nature of LH contribution and diabatic heat- For a quantitative analysis of the indirect effect of LH on ing (Fig. 10a and b) during the blocking life cycle in the upper-level PV (Davis et al., 1993; Stoelinga, 1996), Fig.9 different CNTRL simulations (solid lines) is associated with shows the difference in divergent wind (vχ ) and associated the passage of synoptic cyclones and the associated cross- ·∇ PV advection by the divergent wind (vχ PV) between CN- isentropic transport of low-PV air in WCBs. LH bursts (lo- TRL and NOLH simulations for the five cases during an early cal maxima of LH contribution and diabatic heating) typi- phase of the simulations, i.e., during the most intense ridge cally indicate the time of strongest interaction between the amplification at 3 d lead time. The strong enhancement in di- block and the approaching upstream cyclones (see also Ste- vergent outflow aloft by LH is accompanied by a stronger infeld and Pfahl, 2019). The periods between such LH bursts negative upper-level PV advection on the northwestern flank are dominated by a median cooling of −3 to −4 K and pre- of the blocking ridge in all cases, locally with differences dominantly quasi-horizontal transport of near-tropopause air − −1 of 0.3 pvu h between CNTRL and NOLH. Given that masses (see again quasi-adiabatic trajectories in Fig.5). The the upper-level PV advection by the divergent wind in the relative importance of LH varies strongly during the life- CNTRL simulations reaches absolute minimum values of time of the CNTRL blocks and from system to system but − −1 0.4 pvu h at this time (not shown), these differences are is generally largest during onset (LH contribution of around considerable. Thus, the negative PV advection on the western 60 %) and then declines to the lowest value when the blocks flank is almost absent in NOLH. decay, consistent with the climatological analysis in Stein- feld and Pfahl(2019). In contrast to the cases with multiple

Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments 419

Figure 9. Difference (CNTRL–NOLH) in upper-level PV advection by the divergent (irrotational) wind (vχ · ∇PV, shaded in potential vorticity units per hour), difference in upper-level divergent wind (vectors only shown for wind speed larger than 1 m s−1), and upper-level 2 pvu contour (solid for CNTRL, dashed for NOLH) after 3 d model simulation for (a) Thor onset, (b) Thor maintenance, (c) Canada, (d) Cold spell, and (e) Russia. “x” and “+” show locations of blocking centers for CNTRL and NOLH, respectively.

LH bursts (Thor onset and Cold spell) or with a prolonged jectories experience only weak heating of 3 K in the median strong LH contribution from one slowly moving upstream (not shown), and only 2 % fulfill the WCB criterion. cyclone (Canada), the cases Thor maintenance (blue solid Comparing the evolution of block intensity and spatial ex- line) and Russia (violet solid line) experience strong diabatic tent between CNTRL and NOLH, Fig. 10c and d show that heating only during the early phase in CNTRL, and after LH leads to more intense and larger blocks (in all cases) day 5 mostly quasi-adiabatic advection of low PV, i.e., cool- with an extended lifetime (Thor maintenance). In the CN- ing along upper-level air masses, dominates the evolution of TRL simulations, blocking ridges intensify more rapidly dur- the blocks. ing their early growth phase (days 1–4), and upper-level Considering all the blocks in the CNTRL simulations, PV anomalies are thus stronger and spatially more extended 43 % of their air masses experience heating of more than 2 K compared to their counterparts without LH. However, the ex- in 3 d, and the median heating along the heated trajectories periments indicate a large case-to-case variability with re- is 11 K, with a wide range of 1θ up to 45 K for individual spect to the sensitivity of the block to LH. Without LH, trajectories (not shown). A total of 10 % of the heated trajec- the Thor onset (red lines) and Cold spell (yellow lines) tories are classified as WCBs. In the NOLH simulations, the blocks develop later with a delay of about 1 and 4 d, respec- LH contribution is not entirely removed (see method section) tively, because the first ridge amplification is too weak. Only but reduced to 15 %, and a net diabatic cooling of −3 to −4 K later, when a secondary upstream cyclone is approaching (at in the median dominates the entire evolution of the blocks days 4–5 for Thor onset and at day 6 for Cold spell, indicated (dashed lines in Fig. 10b). The remaining 15 % of heated tra- by the second maxima in the LH contribution/diabatic heat- https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 420 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments

Figure 11. Normalized difference in peak spatial extent and peak intensity of the NOLH blocks compared to the CNTRL blocks. Val- ues close to zero indicate weak sensitivity. Markers indicate the LH contribution in the CNTRL simulations (see Table1). Red open cir- cles show Thor onset simulations with reduced LH (α = 0.5) and enhanced LH (α = 1.5).

to changes in upstream LH. The normalized differences in peak intensity and spatial extent between the NOLH simula- Figure 10. (a) Percentage of blocking trajectories with 1θ > tions and each corresponding CNTRL simulation are shown 2 K in 3 d (%), (b) mean diabatic heating (K, calculated as the together with the LH contribution from the CNTRL simula- mean change in θ along all (heated and non-heated) trajectories), tions (see again Table1) in Fig. 11. Since for Thor mainte- (c) blocking intensity (upper-level PV anomaly), and (d) spatial ex- nance both simulations start with a mature block, differences tent (1012 m2) as a function of simulation lead time. Solid lines are shown for 5 d lead time (before the NOLH block is too show CNTRL simulations, and dashed lines show NOLH simula- tions. Note that the individual curves start as soon as a block is weak to be identified by the blocking index). Blocks with a identified with the PV-anomaly index, and 3 d backward trajecto- small sensitivity to changes in upstream LH will have values ries can only be calculated after day 3. close to zero (i.e., no large differences between NOLH block and CNTRL block). A value of −0.5 represents a reduction by a factor of 2. This figure shows again that all NOLH sim- ulations exhibit a reduction in peak intensity and spatial ex- ing for the CNTRL simulations), does the anomaly in NOLH tent. The reduction is largest for Canada (around −0.3 for in- become stronger, even reaching similar blocking intensities tensity and −0.7 for extent) and smallest for Thor onset, Cold to CNTRL (around day 7), though smaller in extent. Like- spell, and Russia (around −0.1 for intensity and −0.4 for ex- wise, the Russia block (violet lines) has a delayed onset and tent). The Canada block also has a large LH contribution in a slower amplification without LH, but it has a similar inten- its CNTRL simulation (52 %). However, Thor onset with a sity at day 7 as the CNTRL block, which begins to decay after similar LH contribution (47 %) shows less sensitivity and a attaining peak intensity around day 4. The Canada block has weaker reduction in intensity and spatial extent, the latter be- its onset at the same time in both CNTRL and NOLH simu- ing more similar to Cold spell with a smaller LH contribu- lations (green lines); however the ridge does not further am- tion of 38 %. In addition, the Thor onset simulations with re- plify in NOLH and differences in intensity and spatial extent duced LH (α = 0.5) and enhanced LH (α = 1.5) are shown as between NOLH and CNTRL increase with model integration open red circles, highlighting that the sensitivity of blocking time. The Thor maintenance block (blue lines), which starts in the Thor onset case is not linear with respect to changes as an intense and large-scale anticyclonic anomaly in both in LH. It shows that an increase in LH has an even greater CNTRL and NOLH simulations, experiences a quick reduc- effect on spatial extent than on intensity, as blocking area in- tion in amplitude without LH and dissipates 4 d earlier than creases by a value of 0.7 (by a factor 3) for α = 1.5. the CNTRL block. The effect of LH on blocking intensity and extent appears Since the characteristics of the block can develop differ- to depend not only on the LH contribution, but also on other ently, it is difficult to quantify which event is most sensitive environmental features such as the phase of the blocking

Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments 421 life cycle, the number and strength of LH bursts/upstream time. As mentioned above, in all cases, except for Cold spell, cyclones, and the state of the background flow. During the the tracked negative PV anomalies are not classified as block- early growth phase with an initially zonal and intense upper- ing in the NOLH simulations when using the original block- level jet stream, cloud diabatic heating intensifies the up- ing index of Schwierz et al.(2004a), because the PV anoma- stream cyclone and facilitates a faster growth of the incip- lies are too weak, do not persist for more than 5 d, and/or are ient ridge. Since the case Canada interacts with only one too mobile. upstream cyclone with particularly large and prolonged LH contribution, the generation of the upper-level PV anomaly strongly depends on LH, and its removal has profound ef- 5 Conclusions fects on the upper-level flow evolution (omega block in CN- TRL vs. open ridge in NOLH; see again Fig.8c). How- The relative roles of different processes for the formation and ever, during the mature phase (after 4 d lead time) when the maintenance of atmospheric blocking have been debated for large-scale flow is already in an amplified state, the ridges a long time (Woollings et al., 2018). While classical block- in Thor onset and Cold spell interact with downstream prop- ing theories are based on dry-adiabatic interactions of waves agating waves and amplify in NOLH, and thus they appear (e.g., Charney and DeVore, 1979; Shutts, 1983), the impor- less sensitive to changes in LH. The presence of an am- tance of moist-diabatic processes, in particular the release of plified ridge with a large-scale upper-level diffluent flow is latent heat in ascending airstreams, has recently been recog- known to provide a favorable environment for blocking ini- nized to play a significant role in the dynamics of the upper- tiation and maintenance (Colucci, 1985; Pelly and Hoskins, level large-scale flow, including Rossby waves (e.g., Pomroy 2003), which supports the meridional amplification of the up- and Thorpe, 2000; Grams et al., 2011; Wirth et al., 2018) stream waves (eddy straining mechanism; Shutts, 1983) and and blocking (Croci-Maspoli and Davies, 2009; Pfahl et al., the (isentropic) poleward transport of air with low PV (Ya- 2015; Steinfeld and Pfahl, 2019; Müller and Névir, 2019). mazaki and Itoh, 2012; Steinfeld and Pfahl, 2019). The block Motivated by this recent finding, the present study explores can thus also develop in the absence of intense LH, though the effect of LH on the development of five different block- smaller in extent. Dry-dynamical forcing alone, however, is ing cases with the help of sensitivity experiments with the not able to maintain the Thor block in the absence of LH, ECMWF’s global numerical weather prediction model IFS, and after 5 d lead time in the Thor maintenance simulation in which cloud-related LH is altered in the storm track region the blocked region is reduced by −0.7 (approx. by a factor upstream of the block. of 3). In contrast to the other cases, the blocking ridge in the A key finding of the numerical sensitivity experiments is case Russia propagates downstream over Russia and further that the intensity, spatial extent, and lifetime of all simulated away from the storm track region over the North Atlantic blocking events depend strongly on latent heating. In some ocean basin in both simulations (see Fig.8d), and therefore cases (in four of five cases), the presence of LH even de- away from the influence of direct diabatic injection of low- termines whether or not blocking (according to the blocking PV air. Thus, the evolution of the Russia block after its onset index of Schwierz et al., 2004a) occurs at all. Consistent with is mostly governed by quasi-adiabatic dynamics in both CN- the findings of previous studies (Davis et al., 1993; Stoelinga, TRL and NOLH simulations (violet lines in Fig. 10a, b after 1996; Pauley and Smith, 1988; Pomroy and Thorpe, 2000), day 5). It may be related to downstream propagating wave the primary effects of latent heating on the tropopause arise trains emanating from the North Atlantic that interact with from the diabatic reduction of PV and the associated en- topographically forced planetary waves (see Nakamura et al., hancement of the divergent outflow aloft. Latent heating ac- 1997; Luo et al., 2016). Climatologically, blocks over Russia celerates the vertical motion and divergent outflow on the typically form with small LH contribution (below 20 %; see western flank of the block, locally by a factor of 4, and the Fig. 5 in Steinfeld and Pfahl, 2019), which may explain the succeeding interaction with the upper-level PV distribution small sensitivity of the Russia case. However, despite similar modifies the amplification and propagation of upper-level sensitivities of blocking intensities in the Thor onset, Cold waves and blocking compared to the simulations without la- spell, Russia, and Thor maintenance cases, there is still a big tent heating. These processes act to slow down the eastward difference in the large-scale flow evolution between the sim- propagation and amplify the intensity and spatial extent of ulations (dipole block in CNTRL vs. cutoff low-PV anomaly the negative PV anomaly in all cases. in NOLH; see again Fig.8a, b, d, e). Generally, the sensitivity A comparison between the five cases reveals a large case- of blocking intensity is smaller than the sensitivity of spatial to-case variability of the effect of latent heating on block- extent, suggesting that comparing blocks based on their in- ing, which depends strongly on the phase of the blocking tensity only might hide some of the synoptic differences. life cycle and the state of the background flow. During the Despite the strong case-to-case variability in the LH con- early growth phase, latent heating contributes to the initial tribution and in the sensitivity of the blocks to changes in ridge amplification and facilitates a faster growth of the in- LH, the experiments demonstrate that LH can have a pro- cipient ridge. During the mature phase, on the other hand, the found effect on blocking intensity, spatial extent, and life- large-scale flow can also further amplify without the contri- https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 422 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments bution of LH and thus appears to be less sensitive to changes this coupling between dry and moist processes, including the in LH. This amplification is related to the state of the back- details of microphysical processes that shape the spatial dis- ground flow. In the cases with a more meridional flow and tribution of latent heating in clouds (e.g., Joos and Wernli, a pre-existing large-scale ridge, a block also develops in the 2012; Dearden et al., 2016; Attinger et al., 2019). absence of latent heating, though weaker and less extended. The presence of this pre-existing ridge induces large-scale upper-level diffluent flow, which supports the meridional am- Code and data availability. The blocking identification code CON- plification of arriving synoptic-scale waves (eddy straining TRACK (Schwierz et al., 2004a) is available from https://github. mechanism; Shutts, 1983; Mullen, 1987) and the poleward com/steidani/ConTrack (last access: August 2020) (Steinfeld, quasi-adiabatic transport of low-PV air from lower latitudes 2020). The code and information on how to use the Lagrangian ahead of baroclinic disturbances (e.g., Colucci, 1985). Never- analysis tool LAGRANTO (Wernli and Davies, 1997; Sprenger and Wernli, 2015) can be found from http://www.lagranto.ethz.ch (last theless, as demonstrated in the case study of the maintenance access: August 2020). The data of the IFS sensitivity simulations of block Thor, the absence of latent heating can also lead to a are available from Daniel Steinfeld upon request. more rapid decay of blocking. In this case, the dry-adiabatic forcing due to eddy straining in the diffluent region upstream of the block is not strong enough to sustain the system against Supplement. The supplement related to this article is available on- dissipation. line at: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020-supplement. While our experiments are limited to blocking situations, which are associated with a very strong large-scale flow am- plification in the midlatitudes, the diabatic formation of an- Author contributions. SP and DS designed the study. DS performed ticyclonic PV anomalies can be observed in various syn- the numerical experiments, analyzed the data, and wrote the paper. optic situations in which Rossby waves (e.g., Grams et al., MB, RF, and SP provided guidance on interpreting the results. All 2011; Chagnon and Gray, 2015; Röthlisberger et al., 2018), authors commented on the manuscript. cutoff lows and PV streamers (Knippertz and Martin, 2007; Madonna et al., 2014a), and Rossby wave breaking (Zhang and Wang, 2018) play a role. While in this study large Competing interests. The authors declare that they have no conflict changes, e.g., removal of LH, have been made to quantify of interest. the total effect of LH on blocking dynamics, previous studies demonstrated that small changes to various parametrization schemes also had an impact on downstream ridge building Acknowledgements. We thank Elisa Spreitzer, Roman Attinger, Hanna Joos, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli (ETH Zürich) and (Joos and Forbes, 2016; Maddison et al., 2020). Additional Christian Grams (KIT) for fruitful discussions on diabatic processes sensitivity simulations with reduced and enhanced LH for the in midlatitude weather systems. IFS model simulations have been case Thor onset show that an increase in LH triggers nonlin- performed as part of the ECMWF special project “Diabatic effects ear amplification in blocking with greater effect on spatial in mid-latitude weather systems”. ECWMF and MeteoSwiss are ac- extent than on intensity. LH may therefore be dynamically knowledged for making the IFS model available and for access to relevant, influencing the jet stream and potentially the down- the ECMWF computing facilities. We also thank both reviewers for stream flow evolution in all these situations, which is likely their constructive comments. The data analysis and visualization to have important consequences for medium-range weather were done using Python. prediction. The sensitivity experiments demonstrate that blocking is the result of a constructive interaction between diabatic heat- Financial support. Daniel Steinfeld acknowledges funding from ing and dry baroclinic processes. Intense latent heating oc- ETH research grant ETH-09 15-2. Maxi Boettcher acknowl- curs predominantly in the warm conveyor belt of extratrop- edges funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant no. 165941) and the European Research Council 485 (ERC) under ical cyclones (Wernli, 1997) and is thus in phase with and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation pro- strongly coupled to the secondary circulation associated with gram (project INTEXseas, grant agreement no. 787652). dry adiabatic forcing (Kuo et al., 1990). Our sensitivity ex- periments corroborate earlier studies that the interaction be- tween mobile synoptic-scale eddies and planetary-scale flow Review statement. This paper was edited by Helen Dacre and re- anomalies plays an important role for blocking formation and viewed by Oscar Martinez-Alvarado and one anonymous referee. maintenance (Nakamura et al., 1997; Luo et al., 2014; Naka- mura and Huang, 2018; Steinfeld and Pfahl, 2019) and show that diabatic processes can provide the required flow amplifi- cation in addition to dry-dynamical forcing. In order to prop- erly represent blocking dynamics, numerical weather predic- tion and climate models thus have to correctly account for

Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments 423

References Croci-Maspoli, M. and Davies, H. C.: Key dynamical features of the 2005/06 European winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 664–678, Ahlgrimm, M. and Forbes, R.: Improving the Representation of https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2533.1, 2009. Low Clouds and Drizzle in the ECMWF Model Based on ARM Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: A multifaceted Observations from the Azores, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 668– climatology of atmospheric blocking and its recent linear trend, 685, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00153.1, 2013. J. Climate, 20, 633–649, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4029.1, Ahmadi-Givi, F., Graig, G. C., and Plant, R. S.: The dy- 2007. namics of a midlatitude cyclone with very strong latent- Davis, C. A., Stoelinga, M. T., and Kuo, Y.-H.: The in- heat release, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 295–323, tegrated effect of condensation in numerical simu- https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.226, 2004. lations of extratropical cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Altenhoff, A. M., Martius, O., Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Rev., 121, 2309–2330, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- Davies, H. C.: Linkage of atmospheric blocks and synoptic-scale 0493(1993)121<2309:TIEOCI>2.0.CO;2, 1993. Rossby waves: a climatological analysis, Tellus A, 60, 1053– Dearden, C., Vaughan, G., Tsai, T., and Chen, J.-P.: Exploring the 1063, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00354.x, 2008. diabatic role of ice microphysical processes in two North At- Archambault, H. M., Bosart, L. F., Keyser, D., and Cordeira, lantic summer cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 144, 1249–1272, J. M.: A climatological analysis of the extratropical flow re- https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0253.1, 2016. sponse to recurving western north pacific tropical cyclones, Mon. Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, Weather Rev., 141, 2325–2346, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR- P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., D-12-00257.1, 2013. Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bid- Attinger, R., Spreitzer, E., Boettcher, M., Forbes, R., Wernli, H., lot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, and Joos, H.: Quantifying the role of individual diabatic pro- A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., cesses for the formation of PV anomalies in a North Pa- Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., Mcnally, A. cific cyclone, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 2454–2476, P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3573, 2019. de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The Bechtold, P., Köhler, M., Jung, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Leutbecher, ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the M., Rodwell, M. J., Vitart, F., and Balsamo, G.: Advances in sim- data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553– ulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From 597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. synoptic to decadal time-scales, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 134, Dole, R. M.: The life cycles of persistent anomalies and 1337–1351, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.289, 2008. blocking over the North Pacific, Adv. Geophys., 29, 31–69, Bechtold, P., Semane, N., Lopez, P., Chaboureau, J.-P., Beljaars, A., https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(08)60034-5, 1986. and Bormann, N.: Representing equilibrium and nonequilibrium Drouard, M. and Woollings, T.: Contrasting mechanisms of summer convection in large-scale Models, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 734–753, blocking over western Eurasia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 12040– https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0163.1, 2013. 12048, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079894, 2018. Berggren, R., Bolin, B., and Rossby, C.-G.: An aerological study of ECMWF: IFS documentation CY43r1, avail- zonal motion, its perturbations and break-down, Tellus, 1, 14–37, able at: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/ https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1949.tb01257.x, 1949. 17116-part-iii-dynamics-and-numerical-procedures (last Binder, H., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: The role of access: 17 April 2019), 2016a. warm conveyor belts for the intensification of extratropical cy- ECMWF: IFS documentation CY43r1, available at: https://www. clones in Northern Hemisphere winter, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3997– ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/17117-part-iv-physical-processes (last ac- 4020, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0302.1, 2016. cess: 17 April 2019), 2016b. Büeler, D. and Pfahl, S.: Potential vorticity diagnostics to EUMETSAT: Cloud top height product: Product guide, avail- quantify effects of latent heating in extratropical cy- able at: https://www.eumetsat.int/website/home/Data/Products/ clones. Part I: methodology, J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 3567–3590, Atmosphere/index.html (last access: 17 April 2019), 2017. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0041.1, 2017. Forbes, R. M. and Ahlgrimm, M.: On the representation Chagnon, J. M. and Gray, S. L.: A diabatically generated poten- of high-latitude boundary layer mixed-phase cloud in the tial vorticity structure near the extratropical tropopause in three ECMWF global model, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 3425–3445, simulated extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 2337– https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00325.1, 2014. 2347, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00092.1, 2015. Forbes, R. M., Tompkins, A. M., and Untch, A.: A new prog- Charney, J. G. and DeVore, J. G.: Multiple flow equi- nostic bulk microphysics scheme for the IFS, Tech. rep., libria in the atmosphere and blocking, J. Atmos. ECMWF, available at: http://old.ecmwf.int/publications/ Sci., 36, 1205–1216, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- library/ecpublications/_pdf/tm/601-700/tm649.pdf (last access: 0469(1979)036<1205:MFEITA>2.0.CO;2, 1979. 17 April 2019), 2011. Colucci, S. J.: Explosive cyclogenesis and large-scale circu- Grams, C. M., Wernli, H., Böttcher, M., Campa,ˇ J., Corsmeier, U., lation changes: implications for atmospheric blocking, J. Jones, S. C., Keller, J. H., Lenz, C.-J., and Wiegand, L.: The key Atmos. Sci., 42, 2701–2717, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric 0469(1985)042<2701:ECALSC>2.0.CO;2, 1985. wave guide: a North Atlantic case-study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Colucci, S. J.: Planetary-scale precondition- Soc., 137, 2174–2193, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.891, 2011. ing for the onset of blocking, J. Atmos. Grams, C. M., Magnusson, L., and Madonna, E.: An atmo- Sci., 58, 933–942, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- spheric dynamics’ perspective on the amplification and propa- 0469(2001)058<0933:PSPFTO>2.0.CO;2, 2001. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 424 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments

gation of forecast error in numerical weather prediction mod- cast evolution, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1322–1350, els: a case study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 2577–2591, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3739, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3353, 2018. Madonna, E., Limbach, S., Aebi, C., Joos, H., Wernli, H., and Green, J. S. A.: The weather during July 1976: Some dy- Martius, O.: On the co-occurrence of warm conveyor belt namical consideration of the drought, Weather, 32, 120–126, outflows and PV streamers, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3668–3673, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1977.tb04532.x, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0119.1, 2014a. Hoskins, B. J. and Valdes, P. J.: On the existence of storm-tracks, Madonna, E., Wernli, H., Joos, H., and Martius, O.: Warm con- J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1854–1864, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- veyor belts in the ERA-Interim Dataset (1979–2010). Part I: Cli- 0469(1990)047<1854:OTEOST>2.0.CO;2, 1989. matology and potential vorticity evolution, J. Climate, 27, 3–26, Hoskins, B. J., James, I. N., and White, G. H.: The shape, propaga- https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00720.1, 2014b. tion and mean-flow interaction of large-scale weather systems, Martius, O., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: Tropopause- J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1595–1612, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- level waveguides, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 866–879, 0469(1983)040<1595:TSPAMF>2.0.CO;2, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS2995.1, 2010. Hoskins, B. J., McIntyre, M. E., and Robertson, A. W.: Matsueda, M.: Blocking predictability in operational medium-range On the use and significance of isentropic potential vor- ensemble forecasts, Scient. Online Lett. Atmos., 5, 113–116, ticity maps, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 111, 877–946, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2009-029, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711147002, 1985. Matsueda, M.: Predictability of Euro-Russian blocking in Joos, H. and Forbes, R. M.: Impact of different IFS mi- summer of 2010, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06801, crophysics on a warm conveyor belt and the downstream https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046557, 2011. flow evolution, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 2727–2739, Methven, J.: Potential vorticity in warm conveyor belt https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2863, 2016. outflow, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1065–1071, Joos, H. and Wernli, H.: Influence of microphysical processes on the https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2393, 2015. potential vorticity development in a warm conveyor belt: A case- Mullen, S.: Transient eddy forcing of blocking flows, J. study with the limited-area model COSMO, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Atmos. Sci., 44, 3–22, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- Soc., 138, 407–418, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.934, 2012. 0469(1987)044<0003:TEFOBF>2.0.CO;2, 1987. Knippertz, P. and Martin, J. E.: The role of dynamic and Müller, A. and Névir, P.: Using the concept of the Dynamic State In- diabatic processes in the generation of cut-off lows over dex for a scale-dependent analysis of atmospheric blocking, Me- Northwest Africa, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 96, 3–19, teorol. Z., 28, 487–498, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2019/0963, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-006-0217-4, 2007. 2019. Kuo, Y.-H., Shapiro, M. A., and Donall, E. G.: The interaction Nakamura, H. and Wallace, J. M.: Synoptic behavior of baro- between baroclinic and diabatic processes in a numerical sim- clinic eddies during the blocking onset, Mon. Weather ulation of a rapidly intensifying extratropical marine cyclone, Rev., 121, 1892–1903, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- Mon. Weather Rev., 119, 368–384, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- 0493(1993)121<1892:SBOBED>2.0.CO;2, 1993. 0493(1991)119<0368:TIBBAD>2.0.CO;2, 1990. Nakamura, H., Nakamura, M., and Anderson, J. L.: The role of Lenggenhager, S., Croci-Maspoli, M., Brönnimann, S., and Mar- high- and low-frequency dynamics in blocking formation, Mon. tius, O.: On the dynamical coupling between atmospheric blocks Weather Rev., 125, 2074–2093, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- and heavy precipitation events: A discussion of the southern 0493(1997)125<2074:TROHAL>2.0.CO;2, 1997. Alpine flood in October 2000, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, Nakamura, N. and Huang, C. S.: Atmospheric blocking as 530–545, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3449, 2019. a traffic jam in the jet stream, Science, 361, 42–47, Luo, D., Cha, J., Zhong, L., and Dai, A.: A nonlinear multiscale https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat0721, 2018. interaction model for atmospheric blocking: The eddy-blocking Oertel, A., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., Sprenger, M., Konow, H., matching mechanism, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 140, 1785– Hagen, M., and Wernli, H.: Convective activity in an ex- 1808, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2337, 2014. tratropical cyclone and its warm conveyor belt – a case- Luo, D., Xiao, Y., Diao, Y., Dai, A., Franzke, C. L. E., and Sim- study combining observations and a convection-permitting monds, I.: Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic – cold model simulation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 1406–1426, Eurasian anomalies. Part II: the link to the North Atlantic oscil- https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3500, 2019. lation, J. Climate, 29, 3949–3971, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI- Oertel, A., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., Sprenger, M., and Wernli, H.: D-15-0612.1, 2016. Potential vorticity structure of embedded convection in a warm Lupo, A. R. and Smith, P. J.: Climatological features of blocking conveyor belt and its relevance for large-scale dynamics, Weather anticyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, Tellus A, 47, 439–456, Clim. Dynam., 1, 127–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-127- https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1995.t01-3-00004.x, 1995. 2020, 2020. Maddison, J. W., Gray, S. L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., and Williams, Pauley, P. M. and Smith, P. J.: Direct and indirect effects of K. D.: Upstream cyclone influence on the predictability of block latent heat release on a synoptic-Scale wave system, Mon. onsets over the Euro-Atlantic region, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, Weather Rev., 116, 1209–1236, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- 1277–1296, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0226.1, 2019. 0493(1988)116<1209:DAIEOL>2.0.CO;2, 1988. Maddison, J. W., Gray, S. L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., and Pelly, J. L. and Hoskins, B. J.: A new perspective on block- Williams, K. D.: Impact of model upgrades on diabatic ing, J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 743–755, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- processes in extratropical cyclones and downstream fore- 0469(2003)060<0743:ANPOB>2.0.CO;2, 2003.

Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments 425

Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S., and Schellnhu- Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., and Davies, H. C.: Perspica- ber, H. J.: Quasiresonant amplification of planetary cious indicators of atmospheric blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett., waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather ex- 31, 0094–8276, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019341, 2004a. tremes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 5336–5341, Schwierz, C., Dirren, S., and Davies, H. C.: Forced https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222000110, 2013. Waves on a Zonally Aligned Jet Stream, J. At- Pfahl, S., Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., Grams, C. M., and mos. Sci., 61, 73–87, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- Wernli, H.: Importance of latent heat release in ascending air 0469(2004)061<0073:FWOAZA>2.0.CO;2, 2004b. streams for atmospheric blocking, Nat. Geosci., 8, 610–614, Shutts, G. J.: The propagation of eddies in diffiuent jetstreams: eddy https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2487, 2015. vorticity forcing of blocking flow fields, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Pomroy, H. R. and Thorpe, A. J.: The evolution and dy- Soc., 109, 737–761, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710946204, namical role of reduced upper-tropospheric potential vortic- 1983. ity in intensive observing period one of FASTEX, Mon. Spreitzer, E., Attinger, R., Boettcher, M., Forbes, R., Wernli, H., and Weather Rev., 128, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- Joos, H.: Modification of potential vorticity near the tropopause 0493(2000)128<1817:TEADRO>2.0.CO;2, 2000. by non-conservative processes in the ECMWF model, J. Atmos. Quandt, L.-A., Keller, J. H., Martius, O., Pinto, J. G., and Jones, Sci., 76, 1709–1726, 2019. S. C.: Ensemble sensitivity analysis of the blocking system over Sprenger, M. and Wernli, H.: The LAGRANTO Lagrangian anal- Russia in summer 2010, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 657–675, ysis tool – version 2.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2569–2586, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0252.1, 2018. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2569-2015, 2015. Quinting, J. F. and Reeder, M. J.: Southeastern Australian heat Steinfeld, D.: ConTrack – Contour Tracking, available at: https:// waves from a trajectory viewpoint, Mon. Weather Rev., 145, github.com/steidani/ConTrack, last access: August 2020. 4109–4125, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0165.1, 2017. Steinfeld, D. and Pfahl, S.: The role of latent heating in atmospheric Rex, D. F.: Blocking action in the middle troposphere and blocking dynamics: a global climatology, Clim. Dynam., 53, its effect upon regional climate, Tellus, 2, 196–211, 6159–6180, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04919-6, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1950.tb00331.x, 1950. Stoelinga, M. T.: A Potential Vorticity-Based Study of Riemer, M., Jones, S. C., and Davis, C. A.: The impact of extratrop- the Role of Diabatic Heating and Friction in a Nu- ical transition on the downstream flow: An idealized modelling merically Simulated Baroclinic Cyclone, Mon. Weather study with a straight jet, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 69–91, Rev., 124, 849–874, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.189, 2008. 0493(1996)124<0849:APVBSO>2.0.CO;2, 1996. Rodwell, M. J., Magnusson, L., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Bonavita, Teubler, F. and Riemer, M.: Dynamics of Rossby wave packets in a M., Cardinali, C., Diamantakis, M., Earnshaw, P., Garcia- quantitative potential vorticity-potential temperature framework, Mendez, A., Isaksen, L., Källén, E., Klocke, D., Lopez, P., J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 1063–1081, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D- McNally, T., Persson, A., Prates, F., and Wedi, N.: Char- 15-0162.1, 2016. acteristics of occasional poor medium-range weather fore- Tibaldi, S. and Molteni, F.: On the operational predictability of casts for Europe, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1393–1405, blocking, Tellus A, 42, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600- https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00099.1, 2013. 0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x, 1990. Röthlisberger, M., Martius, O., and Wernli, H.: Northern Hemi- Tiedtke, M.: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumu- sphere Rossby wave initiation events on the extratropical lus parameterization in large-scale models, Mon. Weather jet – a climatological analysis, J. Climate, 31, 743–760, Rev., 117, 1779–1800, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0346.1, 2018. 0493(1989)117<1779:ACMFSF>2.0.CO;2, 1989. Schäfler, A., Craig, G., Wernli, H., Arbogast, P., Doyle, J. D., Tiedtke, M.: Representation of clouds in large-scale models, Mon. McTaggart-Cowan, R., Methven, J., Rivière, G., Ament, F., Weather Rev., 121, 3040–3061, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- Boettcher, M., Bramberger, M., Cazenave, Q., Cotton, R., 0493(1993)121<3040:ROCILS>2.0.CO;2, 1993. Crewell, S., Delanoë, J., Dörnbrack, A., Ehrlich, A., Ewald, F., Tyrlis, E. and Hoskins, B. J.: The morphology of North- Fix, A., Grams, C. M., Gray, S. L., Grob, H., Groß, S., Hagen, M., ern Hemisphere blocking, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1653–1665, Harvey, B., Hirsch, L., Jacob, M., Kölling, T., Konow, H., Lem- https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAS2338.1, 2008. merz, C., Lux, O., Magnusson, L., Mayer, B., Mech, M., Moore, Wernli, H.: A Lagrangian-based analysis of extratropical cyclones. R., Pelon, J., Quinting, J., Rahm, S., Rapp, M., Rautenhaus, II: a detailed case-study, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 1677– M., Reitebuch, O., Reynolds, C. A., Sodemann, H., Spengler, 1706, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712354211, 1997. T., Vaughan, G., Wendisch, M., Wirth, M., Witschas, B., Wolf, Wernli, H. and Davies, H. C.: A Lagrangian-based analysis of ex- K., and Zinner, T.: The North Atlantic Waveguide and Down- tratropical cyclones. I: the method and some applications, Q. J. stream Impact Experiment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1607– Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 467–489, 1997. 1637, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0003.1, 2018. Wirth, V., Riemer, M., Chang, E. K. M., and Martius, O.: Rossby Scherrer, S. C., Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Appen- wave packets on the midlatitude waveguide – a review, Mon. zeller, C.: Two-dimensional indices of atmospheric blocking Weather Rev., 146, 1965–2001, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR- and their statistical relationship with winter climate patterns D-16-0483.1, 2018. in the Euro-Atlantic region, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 233–249, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1250, 2006.

https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020 Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 426 D. Steinfeld et al.: The sensitivity of atmospheric blocking to upstream latent heating – numerical experiments

Woollings, T., Barriopedro, D., Methven, J., Son, S.-W., Martius, Zhang, G. and Wang, Z.: North Atlantic extratropical Rossby O., Harvey, B., Sillmann, J., Lupo, A. R., and Seneviratne, wave breaking during the warm season: wave life cycle and S.: Blocking and its response to climate change, Curr. Clim. role of diabatic heating, Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 695–712, Change Rep., 4, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018- https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0204.1, 2018. 0108-z, 2018. Zschenderlein, P., Pfahl, S., Wernli, H., and Fink, A. H.: A La- Yamazaki, A. and Itoh, H.: Vortex – Vortex interactions for grangian analysis of upper-tropospheric anticyclones associated the maintenance of blocking. Part I: the selective absorption with heat waves in Europe, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 191–206, mechanism and a case study, J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 725–742, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0295.1, 2012.

Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020