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Drought Threatens Mountains and Piedmont

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Drought Threatens Mountains and Piedmont ISSN 0549-799X Number 314 November/December 1998 Drought threatens mountains and Piedmont On Oct 29, the North Carolina Drought During an El Niño the steady and northern Florida. El Niño produces Monitoring Council issued a warning westward blowing trade winds weaken, winters that are generally mild in the that if below-average rainfall continues, or even reverse direction, and a large northeast and central United States and as forecast, through the spring of 1999, mass of warm water normally located wet over the south from Florida to Texas. the result could be a drought equaling or near Australia moves eastward along the During La Niña the easterly trade exceeding the drought of record at equator until it reaches the coast of South winds strengthen, and cold ocean Piedmont water supply reservoirs B. America. The displacement of so much upwelling along the equator and the west Everett Jordan, Falls, and John H. Kerr. warm water affects evaporation, causing coast of South America intensifies. Sea- The N.C. Drought Monitoring the formation of rain clouds and altering surface temperatures along the equator Council (DMC) is a group of federal and the typical atmospheric jet stream can fall as much as 7 degrees Fahrenheit state agencies, chaired by the N.C. patterns around the world. During such below normal. The jet stream over the Division of Water Resources, that is an El Niño event, the jet stream over the United States extends from the central responsible for monitoring emerging United States is oriented from west to Rockies east-northeastward to the drought conditions and activating the east over the northern Gulf of Mexico continued page 3 state’s drought response plan if condi- IN THIS ISSUE September/October 1998 tions warrant. Page The DMC’s Oct 29 bulletin also said Director’s Forum: What is meant by “objective, rigorous science”? 2 that streamflows in the mountains are approaching record low-flows and that October action of the N.C. Environmental Management Commission 4 14 public water supply systems in the Additional legislation passed during the 1998 “short session” mountains have enacted water conserva- of the N.C. General Assembly 6 tion measures to reduce system demand. National strategy for animal feeding operations would target largest operations Seven public water supply systems in the and groups of operations contributing to watershed impairment 8 Piedmont, including Greensboro, have Reports link soil and water quality stewardship to small, diversified farms 9 also put water conservation measures into effect. UNC-Wilmington publishes Environmental Assessment of the Lower Cape Fear River System, 1997-1998 10 La Niña said to increase WRRI reports available 12 Denitrificaton Dynamics of an Estuarine Headwater Creek risk of drought Receiving Agricultural Runoff Below normal precipitation in North An In Vitro Test for Estrogenicity Combining Cultured Hepatocytes Carolina is being attributed to a current and an Enzyme-linked Immunosorbant Assay cold phase in sea-surface temperatures PLUS . Digest . Publications . Conferences and Workshops . Websites . MORE. across the eastern tropical Pacific—a La Niña. The now infamous El Niño and La PLEASE NOTE: Because of space limitations some material prepared for this issue of the WRRI News had to be severely edited or left out. Longer versions of several articles as Niña are extreme phases of a naturally well as summaries of some legislation can be read on the web version of this issue of occurring climate cycle referred to as El the WRRI News at http://www2.ncsu.edu/ncsu/CIL/WRRI/news/314. html. Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). 2 WRRI NEWS November/December 1998 Director’s Forum Kenneth H. Reckhow, Director, Water Resources Research Institute What is meant by “objective, rigorous science”? Is nitrogen runoff from agriculture sample preservation, to nutrient analysis, Yet all of these studies produce data, responsible for algal blooms, fishkills, denitrification, sediment oxygen de- and it is the analysis of those data that and outbreaks of Pfiesteria piscicida? mand, community composition charac- ultimately leads to inference and How might additional controls on terization, and other analytic issues, conclusions. Should there not be nitrogen discharges from municipal researchers discuss the latest literature, corresponding rigor for the statistical wastewater treatment plants affect equipment, and techniques. All of this analysis? Would we attach the same estuarine eutrophication in North assures the scientific community (and, weight to water chemistry data if they Carolina? indirectly, the public) that the best were based on state-of-the-art laboratory What will be the impact of alterna- science is involved in the study. This is analysis as we would to water chemistry tive forested buffer rules on nitrogen as it should be. data obtained from a portable kit and loading to rivers? continued next page The answer to each of these ques- tions requires scientific analysis and Water Resources Research Institute News assessment, and this ultimately contrib- of The University of North Carolina utes to decision making. Given the consequences of these decisions on the ISSN 0549-799X economy and the environment, scientists Number 314 have an important responsibility to be November/December 1998 rigorous in their analysis and objective in Published bimonthly their assessment. What does this mean? First, objective assessment is to This newsletter is financed in part by the Department of the Interior, U.S. Geologi- some degree an ideal. Very little, if any, cal Survey, as authorized by the Water Resources Research Act of 1984. Thirty- science is truly objective. As scientists, seven hundred copies of this newsletter were printed at a cost of $1,321.99 or 35 we make choices about hypotheses we cents per copy. choose to test (and choose not to test), we select the metrics for the study, and EMAIL SUBSCRIPTIONS TO WRRI NEWS AVAILABLE we draw the conclusions. All of these Anyone with an Email account and connectivity to the internet can have the WRRI News delivered bimonthly via Email. To subscribe, send an Email message to: require judgment. In most cases, these [email protected]. In the message say: subscribe WRRI-NEWS Your Full Name. judgments are either non-controversial or Once you have subscribed, if you would like to comment on any article in the accepted practice. When they are not, we News or submit an article or announcement to be considered for the News, send have the responsibility to identify biases, an Email message to [email protected]. (If you are not subscribed to the reveal judgments, and discuss the basis Email newsletter, please send Email correspondence regarding the News to for conclusions. [email protected].) To define the basis for conclusions from studies, we must consider the rigor WRRI NEWS AVAILABLE ON WRRI WORLD WIDE WEB SITE in scientific analysis. Many of the top The WRRI News plus summaries of a number of WRRI reports and other scientists in North Carolina are truly information products are accessible at: experts in their fields and have interna- http://www2.ncsu.edu/ncsu/CIL/WRRI tional reputations. To achieve this stature WRRI offices are located at 1131 Jordan Hall requires significant contributions to the on the North Carolina State University campus science, and to make those contributions, Mailing address: Box 7912, NCSU, Raleigh, NC 27695-7912 scientists use the latest technology or Telephone: (919) 515-2815 Email: [email protected] methods of analysis in their respective WRRI Staff fields. Director/Kenneth H. Reckhow For example, recent proposals to Associate Director/ Robert E. Holman WRRI addressing water quality issues Newsletter Editor and Tech Transfer Spec/ Jeri Gray properly emphasize the latest thinking on Business and Administrative Officer/ Mary Sanford Secretary/ Eva Walters appropriate analytical methods. From Accounting Technician/ Frances Yeargan November/December 1998 WRRI NEWS 3 colorimeter? Of course not. Then why Drought continued SERCC says, “ We are currently should we not expect that state-of-the-art experiencing a ‘moderate’ La Niña cold eastern Great Lakes, making severe statistical methods have been examined phase. If it deteriorates into a more weather more likely further north and and selected in consideration of the severe condition during the winter of west than during an El Niño. underlying data generation methods, 1999, planners should be fully aware of In many locations, La Niña produces sampling approaches, and study objec- the worst case conditions and potential the opposite climate variations from El tives, with the same thoughtfulness and impacts. We urge planners to heed the Niño. During a La Niña year, winter rigor demanded in the choice of labora- NOAA Climate Outlook for a La Niña temperatures are warmer than normal in tory techniques? dry period through the Spring of 1999 the Southeast and cooler than normal in Consider a research proposal that quite seriously.” the Northwest. La Niña often features contains a detailed description of state- The N.C. Drought Monitoring drier than normal conditions in the of-the-art laboratory and field techniques Council recommends that all communi- Southwest in late summer through the intended to yield a wealth of interesting ties closely monitor and assess their subsequent winter, in the Central Plains data but largely dismisses the statistical current water supply and their ability to in the fall, and in the Southeast in the analysis by simply indicating that meet
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