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Mozambique Malawi COUNTRY REPORT Mozambique Malawi The full publishing schedule for Country Reports is now available on our website at http://www.eiu.com/schedule. 1st quarter 2000 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.20) 7499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery EIU Electronic New York: Alexander Bateman Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181 London: Jan Frost Tel: (44.20) 7830 1183 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases NewsEdge Corporation (US) Microfilm FT Profile (UK) Tel: (1.718) 229 3000 World Microfilms Publications Tel: (44.20) 7825 8000 (UK) DIALOG (US) CD-ROM Tel: (44.20) 7266 2202 Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 The Dialog Corporation (US) LEXIS-NEXIS (US) SilverPlatter (US) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.20) 7930 6900 Copyright © 2000 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1351-8089 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK Contents 3 Summary Mozambique 5 Political structure 6 Economic structure 7 Quarterly indicators 8 Outlook for 2000-01 10 The political scene 16 Economic policy 16 The domestic economy 16 Economic trends 17 Manufacturing 18 Agriculture 19 Infrastructure 21 Financial services 22 Foreign trade and payments Malawi 23 Political structure 24 Economic structure 25 Quarterly indicators 26 Outlook for 2000-01 29 The political scene 30 Economic policy 32 The domestic economy 32 Economic trends 35 Agriculture 36 Infrastructure 36 Financial services 37 Foreign trade and payments 39 Trade data List of tables 8 Mozambique: forecast summary 11 Mozambique: legislative election results, Dec 3rd-5th 1999 12 Mozambique: distribution of parliamentary seats 15 Mozambique: highlights of the 1997 census EIU Country Report 1st quarter 2000 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 2 26 Malawi: forecast summary 33 Malawi: agricultural GDP 33 Malawi: consumer prices 35 Malawi: Corruption Perceptions Index, 1999 36 Malawi: tobacco auctions, 1999 37 Malawi: external debt 39 Mozambique: foreign trade 40 Malawi: foreign trade List of figures 10 Mozambique: gross domestic product 17 Mozambique: cumulative inflation 18 Mozambique: cashew nut processing and production 28 Malawi: gross domestic product 28 Malawi: kwacha real exchange rates 33 Malawi: inflation 35 Malawi: tobacco auction sales and auction prices 37 Malawi: structure of debt stock EIU Country Report 1st quarter 2000 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 3 December 17th 1999 Summary 1st quarter 2000 Mozambique Outlook for 2000-01 The victory of the ruling Frelimo in the national elections will ensure continuity with economic and social policy and the results will strengthen the position of the president, Joaquim Alberto Chissano. The composition of the new cabinet will be consistent with the moderate and technocratic character of the previous government. The political division of the country will continue, with Renamo maintaining strongholds in the centre and north. The election result will restore economic confidence but demands for economic nationalism and local business empowerment are expected to grow. Strong economic growth will continue, with real GDP forecast to increase by 7.5% in 2000 and 8% in 2001, supported by high levels of foreign direct investment and broad- based growth across a range of sectors. The current-account deficit will narrow to $836m in 2000 and to $674m in 2001 owing to a rise in aluminium exports, a drop in capital imports and an improved invisibles balance. The political scene Frelimo was re-elected in the polls held on December 3rd-5th 1999. The voting confirmed that Renamo is still popular in central and northern areas of the country and Frelimo in the south, although both have made inroads in each other’s respective strongholds. The elections were pronounced free and fair by international observers. A tough election campaign was mounted and Frelimo spared no effort in ensuring its victory. Renamo’s election campaign was hindered by serious organisational and logistical weaknesses, including a lack of money. The election platforms of both parties reflected consensus on economic and social policy. A human rights report has highlighted continuing paralysis in the administration of justice. Economic policy The government is assuming greater control over policy formation in its relationship with the World Bank and other foreign partners. Poverty reduction is assuming a greater focus in policymaking. The domestic economy • Price stability is continuing and inflation was 0.3% in the nine months to September 1999. The exchange rate has held steady. • An investor has pulled out of the Maputo Iron and Steel Project but an agreement has been signed for the Beira iron project. • A compromise has been found in new measures to assist the cashew sector. Controversy has risen with the IMF over policy for the sugar sector. • Agreement has been reached for the private management of Maputo port. Limited liberalisation of the telecoms sector has been announced. • The stockmarket has been launched, with trading in central bank Treasury bills. EIU Country Report 1st quarter 2000 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 4 Foreign trade and Mozambique may receive further debt relief through the HIPC debt relief payments programme if agreement is reached on measures proposed at the G7 summit in Cologne. Malawi Outlook for 2000-01 Controversy will surround the plans by the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) to enable Bakili Muluzi to serve a third presidential term. A UDF party conference in 2000 could highlight rivalries within the party. The legal challenge to the presidential election results will continue. A constitutional review is likely to take place, with the focus on Mr Muluzi’s hopes for a third term as president and clauses outlining electoral rules. The rate of economic growth will slow, reflecting mixed prospects for the agriculture sector. Inflation will fall to 24% in 2000 and to 17% in 2001 and the kwacha will depreciate to an average of MK63.8:$1 in 2001. The current-account deficit will widen to $390m in 2001 owing to rising international fuel prices and a fall in the value of tea exports. The political scene The UDF has announced plans to enable Mr Muluzi to stand for a third pres- idential term. The Supreme Court has ordered the Electoral Commission (EC) to release all voting records from the 1999 elections for inspection. Prepara- tions are under way for the local government elections, scheduled for April 2000. The EC has suspended two members for being too partisan towards the opposition. Following a one-day strike, MPs have awarded themselves a salary increase of more than 50%. Economic policy The IMF has completed its mid-term review of Malawi’s third ESAF arrange- ment. Admarc is being prepared for privatisation, and will commercialise its activities from January 2000. Progress has been made with the privatisation of Malawi’s railways and preparations are under way for the sale of other state monopolies. The domestic economy • The government has estimated real GDP growth of 4.7% in 1999. Inflation fell to 32.3% in October, its lowest level for over 12 months, amid tight monetary policy and increases in commercial bank interest rates. Petroleum prices have increased and fuel importation will be liberalised in 2000. • Tobacco production in 1999 was at similar levels to 1998, but average prices were 4.5% higher. • Malawi’s second cellular telephone network began operations in October. • The financial sector will benefit from the opening of Malawi’s sixth commercial bank in October. Foreign trade and payments Debt relief under HIPC will not be available until 2001 at the earliest. Editor: Tim Ruffer All queries: Tel:
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