:: Issue analysis

Poll verdict: Decline of Left, warning for

Santosh Kumar Business Analyst of POSCO Research Institute, Office

he recent Vidhan Sabha (provincial Assembly) elections have rejected the Left parties. The Left parties have lost assembly elections in West where they have been continuously T ruling since 1977. All Trinamool Congress’ (AITC’s) firebrand leader Mamta Bannerjee, who chased away industrial investments like Indonesia’s Salim Group in Nandigram and Tata Motors in Singur from on the issue of land acquisition in 2007 and 2008, respectively, has been rewarded by the people of West Bengal with five-year rule in West Bengal. The Left parties also lost elections in where Congress has captured the power with a very slender margin. DMK-Congress alliance lost elections in for their leaders’ involvement in USD 39-billion 2G telecom spectrum licence. AIADMK’s Jaylalitha has captured power in Tami Nadu. Congress lost elections in the Union Territory (UT) of Puducherry to its own breakaway group, NR Congress. However, Congress

127 Autumn 2011�POSRI Chindia Quarterly could retain its win in the northeastern State of Assam. These polls have caused political change in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Pudducherry. After the election results, the Left parties and DMK are stunned, Congress has very little to celebrate, BJP has only by-election performance to remember.

○● Historic victory in West Bengal West Bengal was the strongest ideological bastion of the Left parties such as -Marxist (CPI-M), Communist Party of India (CPI), (AIFB), Revolutionary (RSP), etc. since 1977. Left parties were dominant all across West Bengal. But in the wake of large scale land acquisition violence from 2007, the popularity of Left parties sharply declined in the wake of large scale land acquisition violence in Nandigram and Singur. The land acquisition violence gave a politically fertile ground to AITC’s Mamta, who was then desperately looking for such an agenda to revive her political life devastated by the Left parties in 2006 vidhan Sabha election. Mamta adopted an aam aadmi (common people) stance to sympathize with the violence-affected people and led mass movement in the streets of . This became a turning point in the West Bengal politics. Her movement forced the West Bengal government to abandon Vidhan Sabha the Salim Group’s Parties Performance Change petro-chemical Special Economic Zone (SEZ) 2006 2011 project in 2007. And 1. AITC+ 54 226 +172 TATA Motors exited 2. Left Parties 235 62 -173 West Bengal in 2008. Mamta became a 3. Others 05 06 +01 new found champion Total 294 294 - of aam aadmi. As a

128 POSRI Chindia Quarterly�Autumn 2011 :: Issue analysis

result, Mamta’s AITC won 19 out of 42 seats in the The Left’s defeat in its home (House of the West Bengal raises questions People) elections in 2009. whether it is the fag end of the AITC captured the Leftist politics in India Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC) in 2010. Finally, in 2011 the AITC has captured power in the West Bengal by winning 226 out of 294 West Bengal Vidhan Sabha seats in symbolic partnership with Congress. Mamta, whose performance as the national railway minister has been below average and has been accused of siding with the Maoists, has become the first non-leftist Chief Minister of West Bengal since 1977. It is to be seen how Mamta would turn around the poor and underdeveloped West Bengal, and whether she would be able to cast off her anti-industry image to attract investments in West Bengal.

○● Tamil Nadu People of Tamil Nadu have rejected the DMK-Congress alliance in Tamil Nadu in the 2011Vidhan Sabha election. DMK and allies could win only 31 out of 234 seats. Usually, there is power rotation in Tamil Nadu every five year, but this year the political change in Tamil Nadu is more attributed to the fallout of the 2G spectrum Vidhan Sabha scam in which the Parties Performance Change DMK’s big leaders like 2006 2011 Raja and Kanimozhi are 1. AIADMK+ 85 203 +118 involved. Chief Minister Karunanidhi’s family─ 2. DMK+ 140 31 -109 wife Dayalu and Total 234 234 - daughter Kanimozhi─

129 Autumn 2011�POSRI Chindia Quarterly was found involved in the 2G scam. AIADMK and its allies won 203 out of 294 seats and Jaylalitha has become the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu. As far as corruption is concerned, both DMK and AIADMK are equally corrupt. Victorious Jaylalitha is herself involved in a number of disproportionate asset case. Her luxurious lifestyle can only match a queen, not a democratically elected representative. Since there are only two options (DMK & AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu, the voters have no options but to elect one of them. The victory of Jaylalitha is less of a result of the positive votes for Jaylalitha and more of the negative votes against the Karunanidhi government. Tamil Nadu election result is a strong warning for Congress on a series of scams and scandals in the Congress led the central government is found to have been involved.

○● has emerged victorious, but the victory margin of Congress and its allies is so thin that it is difficult to say that the people of Kerala have voted for Congress. Congress and its allies have won 72 seats whereas the Left parties have won 68 seats. The Vidhan Sabha difference of merely Parties Performance Change four seats is an 2006 2011 indication that, unlike 1. Congress+ 41 72 +31 West Bengal, the Left parties are still a 2. Left+ 92 68 -24 formidable force in Total 140 140 - Kerala. The marginal difference is also a cause of concern for the new Congress Chief Minister Oomen Chandy. The instability will loom large on the government.

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○● Pudducherry Congress and DMK alliance was in power in the UT of Pudducherry, but Congress and its ally DMK could win only 9 out of 30 seats and a newly created party, NR Congress (NRC) along with AIADMK won 21 out of 30 seats. Pudducherry, which is ensconced in Tamil Nadu, seems to be greatly influenced by Tamil Nadu effect. The 2G spectrum effect seems to have cast influence on the Pudducherry voters. NR Congress leader Rangaswamy is the newly elected Chief Minister of Pudducherry and he Vidhan Sabha has refused to share Parties Performance Change power with its pre-poll 2006 2011 ally AIADMK. The rejection of Congress in 1. NRC+ 05 21 +16 Pudducherry confirms 2. Congress+ 19 09 -10

the Tamil Nadu’s strong Total 30 30 - warning on corruption.

○● Assam Assam is the only state where no political Vidhan Sabha change has occurred. Parties Performance Change Congress has won again 2006 2011 with significantly improved margin (78 1. Congress 53 78 +25 out of 126 seats). This is 2. AGP 28 10 -18

the third time Congress 3. BJP 10 05 -5 has consecutively come 4. Others 35 33 -2 to power in Assam. The reasons for their coming Total 126 126 -

131 Autumn 2011�POSRI Chindia Quarterly back to power are two. Firstly, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has carried out significant developmental work in the state and also been able to reduce insurgency. Secondly, the opposition parties such as AGP and BJP are extremely divided. AGP and BJP failed to make alliance in the election. Assam is the only state where Congress has reason to be happy.

○● By-election results By-elections for the two Lok Sabha seats were held in Chhattisgarh and and for the six Vidhan Sabha seats in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Nagaland. The by-election results are very disappointing for Congress. Congress contested all by-election seats and lost all. BJP seems to have done pretty well in both Chhattisgarh and Karnataka. In spite of corruption charges against the BJP’s Karnataka government, the BJP has won all three seats. The victory of YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh has made Congress very uncomfortable. The YSR Congress led by Jagan Mohan Reddy is a split group of Congress. Jagan Mohan Reddy has openly revolted against Congress President Sonia Gandhi. Political experts forecast that YSR Congress will do well in the next Vidhan Sabha election, and Jagan Mohan Reddy will be the next Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. The performance of Congress in both Uttar Pradesh and Nagaland was also disappointing.

○● Implications The recent assembly election results of five states are casting two major implications on the Indian politics. Firstly, the Left parties, which lost its influential presence in the national politics in 2009 and the remaining in West Bengal and Kerala in 2011, have now become confined only to , a small state in the northeastern India. The Left’s defeat in its home West Bengal raises questions whether it is the fag end of the Leftist politics in India, whether the Left ideology has become irrelevant in the economically

132 POSRI Chindia Quarterly�Autumn 2011 :: Issue analysis

States Type of Seats No. of Seats Winners

1. Chhattisgarh Lok Sabha 01 BJP

2. Karnataka Vidhan Sabha 03 BJP

Lok Sabha 01 YSR Congress 3. Andhra Pradesh Vidhan Sabha 01 YSR Congress

4. Uttar Pradesh Vidhan Sabha 01

5. Nagaland Vidhan Sabha 01 NPF fast growing India, whether the Left parties will fight back to the mainstream next time, etc. The opinions of the political experts are divided. Political analyst find that though the Left parties have been defeated and they have declined significantly, it is too early to write them off. But the Left future, especially in West Bengal, will depend on whether Mamta would deliver what the Left parties could not deliver in the past 34 years. Secondly, victory of regional parties like AITC, AIADMK, NRC, etc. indicate that the Indian politics is going to remain fragmented or multi-party dominated by regional parties for some more time. Coalition politics is going to continue, and bi-polar politics is still far away. The scams and scandal of the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has given the regional party a good opportunity to continue in the Indian politics for some more time. Thirdly, the results are ringing warning bells for Congress. Congress is riding piggyback on Mamta. Mamta does not want Congress to grow in West Bengal and remain a smaller partner. Congress does not have any left stake in Tamil Nadu. By-election result of Andhra Pradesh has indicated that Congress is going to lose it.

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