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[Sample B: Approval/Signature Sheet] Filozofická fakulta Univerzity Palackého v Olomouci Katedra politologie a evropských studií Mgr. Evan Baun The Evolution of NATO: 2010 Strategic Concept and the Future Security Environment Dizertační práce Olomouc 2016 Prohlašuji, že jsem tuto dizertační práci vypracoval samostatně na základě uvedených pramenů a literatury. V Olomouce, . ….…..2016 ___________________________ Na tomto místě bych rád poděkoval svému školiteli prof. PhDr. Jiři Lachovi, M.A., Ph.D., za rady a komentáře. Děkuji za jeho mimořádně vstřícný přístup. Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1 Theoretical Basis ..........................................................................………........................6 1.1 Methodology ................................................................................................... 13 1.2 Review of Literature ....................................................................................... 18 2 The Strategic Concept .................................................................................................... 27 2.1 1949 – 1957: Three Strategic Concepts that Built an Alliance… ....................28 2.2 1968: The 20 Year Strategic Concept ............................................................. 31 2.3 1991: Alliance Reborn .................................................................................... 33 2.4 1999: A Golden Anniversary Concept ............................................................ 35 2.5 The 2010 Strategic Concept ............................................................................ 37 3 The Multiple Futures Project and the Future Security Environment ............................. 42 3.1 The Multiple Futures Project – Development ................................................. 44 3.2 Multiple Futures Project – Final Report ......................................................... 47 3.2.1 The Multiple Futures.............................................................................. 49 3.2.2 Top Security and Military Implications ................................................. 56 3.2.3 Findings and Recommendations ............................................................ 58 3.3 Other Reports .................................................................................................. 61 3.3.1 Canadian Chief of Force Development Report: FSE 2008 – 2030 ........ 62 3.3.2 USJFCOM – Joint Operating Environment 2007 – 2030 Report .......... 63 3.3.3 RUSI FSE Policy Paper ......................................................................... 64 3.3.4 NDU: All Possible Wars? Toward a Consensus View of the FSE 2001 – 2025 ................................................................................... 66 3.3.5 NIC: Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World ..................................69 3.3.6 Principy obrany České republiky „2030“ .............................................. 71 4 Findings...........................................................................................................................73 4.1 State Conflict .................................................................................................. 76 4.2 Proliferation of WMD/E ................................................................................. 80 4.3 Terrorist and other Criminal Groups ............................................................... 85 4.3.1 International Terrorist and Criminal Groups ......................................... 86 4.3.2 Domestic Terrorism ............................................................................... 90 4.4 Cyber Attacks/Attacks on Critical Infrastructure ........................................... 95 4.5 Resource Constraints and Disruptions .......................................................... 101 4.5.1 Disruption of Communications ............................................................ 101 4.5.2 Disruption of Trade Routes .................................................................. 102 4.5.3 Energy Resources and Energy Security ............................................... 104 4.5.4 Natural Resources ................................................................................ 105 4.6 Climate Change ............................................................................................. 107 4.7 Global Instability .......................................................................................... 110 4.7.1 Failed States ......................................................................................... 111 4.7.2 Economic Conflict ............................................................................... 115 5 Implications and Recommendations ............................................................................ 119 5.1 State Conflict ................................................................................................ 120 5.2 Proliferation of WMD/E ............................................................................... 124 5.3 Terrorist and Other Criminal Groups ............................................................ 126 5.4 Cyber and Critical Infrastructure Protection ................................................. 131 5.5 Resource Constraints and Disruptions .......................................................... 137 5.5.1 Disruption of Communications ........................................................... 137 5.5.2 Disruption of Trade Routes ................................................................. 138 5.5.3 Energy Resources and Energy Security .............................................. 139 5.5.4 Natural Resources ............................................................................... 141 5.6 Climate Change ............................................................................................. 142 5.7 Global Instability .......................................................................................... 146 5.7.1 Failed States ........................................................................................ 147 5.7.2 Economic Conflict .............................................................................. 148 6 Results and Conclusions .............................................................................................. 151 6.1 Concerns ....................................................................................................... 151 6.2 Results ........................................................................................................... 156 Bibliography ................................................................................................................... 163 Annex .............................................................................................................................. 174 Abstract ........................................................................................................................... 183 Summary ..........................................................................................................................185 Introduction “Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” ~John F. Kennedy If there is one certain truth about the world as known by humanity it is that the future is hardly predictable. This general lack of forward-looking knowledge creates a great deal of fear and stress for experts in many fields, especially those in security. One area that benefits greatly from any possible grasp on what may come in the future is that of international security. Looking back in recent history, being able to predict the actions of possible aggressors such as Adolf Hitler pre-World War II or al-Qaeda with the 9/11 terrorist attacks would have saved much hardship around the world if these threats could have been dealt with beforehand. Even with the foreboding knowledge that existed in these two cases: Hitler’s ramblings in his publication of Mein Kampf or security reports from back in the Clinton administration about al-Qaeda’s intentions up until the last days before the 9/11 attacks; for whatever reason the right people weren’t paying enough attention to the right information at the right time to make the right choices. History shows that this is what happens due to many factors and with the increase in the amounts of information and intelligence out there, it can be easy to get lost in the fray. This however does not mean that it is unnecessary to even try, as a government has the responsibility to protect its people from any form of threat now or in the future. It would be irresponsible to neglect any possibilities in the future that are deemed possible. An example of a collective of states that has formed a security alliance and relatively successfully used this type of planning, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), will be analysed as a case study to show how planning for future threats has proven a fruitful endeavour in international security based on their track record. The aim of this study is to look at the current view of the Future Security Environment (FSE) that security organizations, think tanks, education institutions and nations within the Alliance proclaim will be in the coming 1 decades and compare it to NATO’s mechanism of planning, the Strategic Concept. The goal of this is to create a sort of consensus on the FSE and to determine if NATO is planning accordingly. The study will
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