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Wind Power in Context – a Clean Revolution in the Energy Sector

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Wind Power in Context – a Clean Revolution in the Energy Sector Supported by Ludwig Bölkow Stiftung Wind Power in Context – A clean Revolution in the Energy Sector December 2008 Author/Responsibility for this report: Dr. Rudolf Rechsteiner Murbacherstrasse 34, 4056 Basel/ Switzerland, [email protected] Member of the Swiss Parliament and its Energy Committee www.rechsteiner-basel.ch Scientific and parliamentarian advisory board: see at www.energywatchgroup.org © Energy Watch Group / Ludwig-Boelkow-Foundation Wind Power in Context - a clean Revolution in the Energy Sector About Energy Watch Group Energy policy needs objective information. The Energy Watch Group is an international network of scientists and parliamentarians. The supporting organization is the Ludwig-Bölkow- Foundation. In this project scientists are working on studies independently of government and company interests concerning: the shortage of fossil and nuclear energy resources, development scenarios for regenerative energy sources, as well as, strategic deriving from these for a long-term secure energy supply at affordable prices. The scientists are therefore collecting and analysing not only ecological but above all economical and technological connections. The results of these studies are to be presented not only to experts but also to the politically interested public. Objective information needs independent financing. A bigger part of the work in the network is done unsalaried. Furthermore the Energy Watch Group is financed by donations, which go to the Ludwig- Boelkow-Foundation for this purpose. For more details, please visit our website or contact us at the following location: Energy Watch Group Zinnowitzer Straße 1 10115 Berlin Germany Phone +49 (0)30 3988 9664 [email protected] www.energywatchgroup.org Page 2 of 195 Content Abstract _______________________________________________________________________ 7 1. Executive Summary _____________________________________________________ 8 Misleading predictions and the role of IEA (International Energy Agency) _________________ 10 The 2008 World Energy Outlook ___________________________________________________ 11 The real significance of wind power: four scenarios ___________________________________ 12 Model assumptions _____________________________________________________________ 13 Model findings _______________________________________________________________________ 17 Underlying Innovations __________________________________________________________ 17 Social Innovation______________________________________________________________________ 17 Far‐off Gigawatt clusters for wind _________________________________________________ 18 Breakthrough in regulations ______________________________________________________ 19 The problems of non‐renewables ________________________________________________________ 20 Political opponents ____________________________________________________________________ 21 Intermittency and interconnection ________________________________________________ 21 Older natural gas plants as back‐up _______________________________________________________ 21 2. Oil peak and the power sector ____________________________________________ 23 3. Wind power: Global market status ________________________________________ 26 Why is the situation in the wind market so different today from what it was before? _______ 28 Struggling for take‐off (1996‐2005) ________________________________________________ 29 “Teething problems” __________________________________________________________________ 38 The Globalization of wind power: 2005 and beyond ___________________________________ 40 Emergence of new markets _____________________________________________________________ 42 The situation today _____________________________________________________________ 45 World annual installations Growth Rates ___________________________________________ 46 Component shortages _________________________________________________________________ 47 The advantages of wind power ____________________________________________________ 51 4. Four World Scenarios for the Wind Sector ___________________________________ 52 Preliminary remark _____________________________________________________________ 52 Continuous growth of the wind sector projected _____________________________________ 53 Model assumptions _____________________________________________________________ 53 World electricity generation and consumption _______________________________________ 55 The “effective power capacity” Concept ____________________________________________ 56 Managing power reserves and interconnection _____________________________________________ 57 Lower capacity factors – higher capital costs – lower fuel costs _________________________________ 57 The “other renewables” sector ____________________________________________________ 59 Development of the wind sector and market shares (accompanied by solar) ______________ 60 Wind annual capacity additions ___________________________________________________ 61 Overall market conquest by renewables ____________________________________________ 62 Market development of non‐renewables and CO2‐emissions ___________________________ 65 Wind Power in Context - a clean Revolution in the Energy Sector Non‐renewable power generation and CO2‐emissions _________________________________ 66 The model’s meaning in real terms ________________________________________________ 68 Territories for wind power ______________________________________________________________ 68 Roofs and territories for solar ___________________________________________________________ 68 Real market trends of wind power in 2007 __________________________________________ 69 Comparisons with the real world __________________________________________________ 70 China _______________________________________________________________________________ 72 5. On the accuracy of Wind Power Installation Forecasts ________________________ 73 Methodological remark __________________________________________________________ 73 What do past forecasts on Germany tell us? _________________________________________ 73 Cumulative capacity forecasts and reality: Germany __________________________________________ 73 Annual additions forecasts and reality: Germany ____________________________________________ 75 Outlook beyond 2007: Germany _________________________________________________________ 76 What do past forecasts in Europe tell us? ___________________________________________ 78 What do past forecasts for the world wind market tell us? _____________________________ 84 Forecasts by the International Energy Agency _______________________________________________ 84 The 2008 IEA “blue scenario” for the G8 ___________________________________________________ 87 The IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 _______________________________________________ 89 Revised oil supply and oil price projections _________________________________________________ 89 World Energy Outlook 2008 and Wind power _______________________________________________ 89 BTM Consult’s world market forecasts _____________________________________________ 93 Outlook beyond 2007: World ____________________________________________________________ 97 Possible causes of stagnation ____________________________________________________________ 98 Comment on the German case of wind power forecast ________________________________ 99 Andalusia – similarities with Germany? ___________________________________________________ 100 Comment on European wind power forecasts ______________________________________ 102 Comment on the world market forecasts and IEA practices ____________________________ 106 Fundamentally positive world perspective _________________________________________ 111 6. Key drivers of future growth ____________________________________________ 113 Innovations improving wind technology ___________________________________________ 113 Small wind systems ___________________________________________________________________ 115 Innovations regarding system benefits of wind power ________________________________ 115 Better weather forecasts ______________________________________________________________ 115 Better interconnection ________________________________________________________________ 117 Better regulations for interconnection ___________________________________________________ 118 Creation of renewable energy zones (CREZ) _______________________________________________ 119 Enlarging the wind resource _____________________________________________________ 122 Development of peripheral locations _____________________________________________________ 123 Offshore power generation ____________________________________________________________ 125 New offshore foundations _____________________________________________________________ 126 Floating turbines _____________________________________________________________________ 126 Positive implications __________________________________________________________________ 127 New investors ________________________________________________________________ 128 Investments by emerging economies_____________________________________________________ 129 New manufacturers ____________________________________________________________ 130 Page 4 of 195 Wind Power in Context - a clean Revolution in the Energy Sector Drivers from the non‐renewable power sector ______________________________________ 131 Competing with new power plants instead of old ___________________________________________ 131 Problems of the non‐renewable
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