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Home , Bhind district, Coimbatore bypass, Gwalior district, Madhya Pradesh

ROADS : INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

Gwalior- Highway Road Link

The 80 km -Jhansi Highway Road Link will upgrade the existing 2-lane road to 4/6-lane from Gwalior to Jhansi on NH-75 under North-South Corridor in the states of Uttar and . This would significantly cut down travel time between these two cities and improve the commuting experience. The scope of work includes construction of 4 major bridges, 21 minor bridges, one 4-lane flyover, 4 grade separators, 3 vehicular underpasses and service roads on each side of the highway.

Project Name Gwalior-Jhansi Highway

Project Location & Madhya Pradesh

Project Type BOT Project Length 80 kms Project Owner NHAI Concessionaire Gwalior Jhansi Expressways Ltd.

Concession Period 20 yrs

Gwalior ––- MP/UP border (NH- 92) Project (MPRDC)

The Govt. of (GOI) through Ministry of Roads & Highways (MORT&H) is contemplating to enhance the traffic capacity and safety for efficient transshipment of Goods as well as passenger traffic on few of the Selected heavily trafficked stretches/paved shoulder of National Highways. The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) has been entrusted for the development. Maintenance and management of National Highways, under NHDP Phase – –IVIV programme. The Project under consideration aims at converting existing 2-lane NH 92 from Gwalior to Bhind 2 lane divided carriageway to be executed by private entrepreneurs as BOT projects. The Madhya Pradesh Road Development Corporation (MPRDC) has assigned Holtec Consulting Private Limited (HCPL) to prepare Feasibility Report. The Paved shoulder starts from Km 0.00 of NH 92 at Gwalior traverses through of to Bhind of and further runs across river and enters into Gwalior & Bhind taluka of Gwalior District, further runs through MP&UP border & ends at Km108.000 of NH-92 Major settlements along the paved shoulder are Gwalior & Bhind, other important towns/villages are , Moharajpur, , , Phoop and Barhi. Total length of the paved shoulder is approximately 108 Km.

Project Name Gwalior to Bhind NH-92 Two laning with paved shoulder of the section Km 0.00 to Km 108.00 of NH-92 (Gwalior-MP/UP border) in the state of Madhya Pradesh by Madhya Pradesh Road Development Corporation ltd. (MPRDC), Government of Madhya Pradesh. Start 0.000 Km (Gwalior) End 107.500 Km (UP/MP Border) Length 107.500 Km Important Towns Gwalior and Bhind, other important towns/villages are Malanpur, Moharajpur, Gohad, Mehgaon, Phoop and Barhi. Terrain Plain Road Formation (existing) 9 m to 13m Carriageway (existing) 0 5 m to 10 m. Poor to Good Traffic Volume 15,000 PCU. Culverts (Existing) 96 nos (less numbers, week and inadequate). Minor Bridges 35 nos (require up gradation by way of special repairs / rehabilitation, widening, reconstruction and retention with repairs). Major Bridges 1 no. satisfactory condition. ROB 1 No: at Km 7.043 Satisfactory condition. Flyover (under construction) 1 Nos. at Km 19.740 Junction/Intersection 8 nos major and 7 nos minor.

Gwalior-

Company has been awarded the National Highway BOT Road project of Four laning of Gwalior- Shivpuri from km 15.600 of NH-75 (end of Gwalior Bypass) to km 236.00 of NH-3 in the State of Madhya Pradesh and the Project corridor starts at the end of left side of under construction Gwalior bypass (km 15.600 of NH-75) meets at 130.000 of NH-3 and ends at existing km 236.000 of NH-3. The existing carriageway is generally 2 lane road.. The total length of the project road under consideration is 125.300 km and it passes through Mangarh, Mohna, Ghatgaon and Nayagon . The concession period is 29 years inclusive of construction period of 2.5 years and the investment will be the tune of about Rs. 1500.00 Crores .The scope of the work will broadly include rehabilitation, up gradation and widening of the existing two lane carriageway to four lane standard with construction of new pavement rehabilitation of existing pavement, construction and / or rehabilitation of Major Bridges, ROB’s , minor Bridges, culverts, road intersection, interchanges, drains etc. and operation and maintenance thereof.

The Project road is a part of National Highway 3 (NH 3), commonly referred as the - Agra Highway, is a major Indian National Highway that runs through the states of Uttar Pradesh, , Madhya Pradesh and states in India. The highway originates in Agra in Uttar Pradesh, generally travels South-West through Dhaulpur in Rajasthan, Gwalior, Shivpuri, Guna, , and in Madhya Pradesh, and , Nasik Thane and terminates at Mumbai Maharashtra. NH 3 runs for a distance of 1,161 Km . The stretch between Agra and Gwalior is marked as the North-South corridor by the National Highways Authority of India. In greater Mumbai area, the highway is also known as Eastern Express Highway which continues as Mumbai-Nasik expressway (newly built).

Risk Involved in Road Projects

The PPP projects present a different risk profile than conventional projects. Many of the risks in a PPP project come from the complexity of the arrangement itself in terms of documentation, financing, taxation, technical details, sub agreements, and market conditions. Some of the major Risks are as following:

Regulatory Risk : Crop up due to lax regulatory framework fixing of tariff and charges, dispute resolution, lack of independence of regulator comes under this risk.

Legal Risk comes with lack of a standard model for PPP agreements that leaves general and special contract conditions vulnerable to challenge and poor execution management.

Force Majeure risk is the risk which is beyond the control of the project developer (floods, earthquake, war etc.)

Political Risk: The project may be subjected to unwarranted government intervention. For instance, the government may unilaterally decide to nationalize or expropriate some or all part of the project. The extent of political risk and governmental interference is influenced by the prevailing political regimes and the economic importance of the project to the local economy..

Land Acquisition: The primary reason for certain segments of the GQ phase of the NHDP exceeding the project completion deadline had been due to problems in land acquisition. The effects of this can be mitigated with the project starting only after all the required land is procured and handed over by the government.

Environmental risk & Social risk: delay in getting environmental clearance and pollution issues may impact performance of the project. There should be an effective R&R policy for social and environmental impact assessment and findings of such assessments should be discussed in public with affected stakeholders Financial Risks: Financial risk is the risk of debt service and failure to pay adequate returns. Funding Risks- Failure to reach financial close, this is largely carried by the Promoter. Interest rate risk arises due to changes in interest. Interest-rate movements between the submission of bids and financial close. Debt servicing risk is the next in criticality. Appropriate debt –equity mix and proactive managerial strategies in financial restructuring would be the risk mitigates.

Construction Risks: involve project delays, time and cost overruns, flaws in design, changes in design and engineering, and commencement of cash flows. Delays in project completion can add to the cost escalation are vital. Public-sector procurement has a history of large capital-cost overruns. tough pre-qualification of bidders, close oversight over contractors can act as a mitigate.

Termination Risk is the risk that the PPP arrangement will be terminated early, either through the Provider failing financially or failing to perform technically, e.g. by not providing the contracted service adequately. This is a risk for the Provider as it will almost certainly suffer a material financial loss on termination. The risk can be partially mitigated by selecting suitable bidders.

O&M Risks: There are two key elements. Firstly, that the asset's maintenance requirements will be different to those predicted and secondly that there will be a difference in unit cost of maintenance. The Provider should therefore have an incentive to produce an asset with the lowest whole-life cost.

Revenue Risk: The Bypass project experience, where enforcement of toll collection has been the problem, is illustrative of the toll collection risk. The Provider can be remunerated either by toll collection or by shadow tolling.

Demand/market risk:. This risk comes due to over-estimation by stakeholders, more as a result of ‘feel good’ about the project rather than a ‘hard-nosed’ look at the traffic and its drivers. Demand risk may be a direct consequence of government policy Impact and Movement of Risk over Project Life

Analysis in the study includes review of a wide range of survey of published literature in diverse areas of Construction management, PPP concession agreements, model concession agreement, risk management and risk associated with BOT highway projects. After literature review and further discussion a comprehensive checklist of 10 risk categories and 41 risk factors were selected. This checklist became a basis for interviews with more experts. Based upon this checklist questionnaire was prepared. After performing this part, three BOT road projects were selected as a case study

(i) Gwalior –Bhind- MP/UP border (NH- 92) Project (MPRDC) (ii) Gwalior- Jhansi (NH-75) Road (NHAI) (iii) Gwalior- Shivpuri (NH-3) road (NHAI).

Compilation of response: The response is compiled as following: a) the analysis has been done to evaluate impact of Risk i.e. severe (S), High (H), Medium (M), Low (L), Very Low(VL) over the various phases of Project life i.e. Initiation phase (1), Tendering phase (2), Financing phase (3), Construction phase (4) O&M phase (5) and Transfer phase (6). b) Final marking based upon the responses is shown in Table 2. c) Weight age of the impact considered for study for severe impact (S=10), High impact (H=8), Medium impact (M=6), Low impact (L=4), Very Low impact (VL=2). Risk presence and its weightage during various phases of the project life

Risk Risk Risk Factors Phase Final Phase of project life No. category of Marking project life 1 2 3 4 5 6

R-1 1 Political 1. Change in 1,2,3,4, L 4 4 4 4 4 4 Risk legislation 5,6 /policy 2. Termination 3,4,5,6 L 4 4 4 of agreement by govt. 3. Attitude of 2,3,4 L 4 4 4 govt. toward foreign investor/ investor 4. Imposition of 3,4,5,6 L 4 4 4 4 new taxes/ increase in taxes R-2 Regulation 1. Change in 3,4,5,6 VL 2 2 2 2 Social & Law Legal risk 2.Change in 3,4,5,6 VL 2 2 2 2 regulation 3. 1,2,3,4 S 1/0 1/0 1/0 1/0 Environmental. Clearance/ Pollution 4. Land 1,2,3,4 H 8 8 8 8 acquisition/ comp R-3 Support 1. Support from 4,5 M 6 6 from local/ state govt. Local 2. Political 1,2,3,4,5 M 6 6 6 6 6 govt. opposition risk 3. Support from 3,4,5,6 L 4 4 4 local Public R-4 Force 1. Social unrest 1,2,3,4,5 VL 2 2 2 2 2 Majeure problem 2. Natural 3,4,5,6 L 4 4 4 4 calamity 3. Historical 2,3,4 VL 2 2 2 findings 4. Rebellion/ 3,4,5 VL 2 2 2 Terrorism R-5 Constru 1. Change in the 4 M 6 ction scope of work 4 Risk M 6 2. Poor 4 L 4 geotechnical condition 3. Poor contract 4 M 6 management/ non performance of vendors/ subcontractors 4. Availability of 4 M 6 Labour/ Material 5. Bad weather 4 L 4 6. Cost overrun 4 M 6 7. Time overrun 4 L 4 8. Technology 4 VL 2 Risk (Unproven tech./ design deficiency) R-6 Operation 1. Unexpected/ 5 L 4 & Unforeseen Mainten deterioration ance 2. Design 5 L 4 deficiency/ bad Risk workmanship /low quality during construction. 3. Tolling 5 VL 2 technology 4. Overloading 5 VL 2 control 5. Traffic/Incident 5 VL 2 management 6. Cost overrun 5 L 4 Risk R-7 Transfer 1. No residual 6 VL 2 risk value 2. Transmission 6 VL 2 failure R-8 Financial 2,3,4 M 6 6 6 risk 2,3,4,5 L 4 4 4 4 3 H 8 2,3 M 6 6 2,3,4 M 6 6 6 R-9 Commercial 1. Traffic/ level of 4,5 H 8 8 Risk demand risk 2. Non competing 3,4,5 M 6 6 6 facility 3. Lack of 4,5 L 4 4 demand/ slow economic development of the country 4. Delay by govt. 4 VL 2 notification of toll collection. R-10 Lender's 1. Default of the H 8 Risk concessionaire TOTAL RISK WEIGHTAGE 30 58 100 146 74 20

% % % % 0 % % 1 0 8 0 9 4 2 4 6 1 4 1 Result and Analysis of Findings

Analysis in the study includes review of a wide range of survey that resulted in 10 risk categories and 41 risk factors. These risks have been considered for risk assessment (see Table- 1). Impact of these risks over project life is illustrated in the Figure-2.

The study illustrates the PPP project carries higher risk throughout the project life. One of the main reasons of high risk is long project duration. Risk in BOT Project rise up as project progresses and the project faces highest risk during its construction phase. The risk quotient drops to less than half as soon as the construction of the project is over. The PPP mode bears heavy risk during entire life span except initiation and transfer phase. The volatile social, economical and legal environment creates major risk upheavals during the PPP project life. Considering long concession period and fluctuating risk profile of PPP road projects it is suggested to setup a Regulator to the PPP road projects which could oversee the fast changing overall socio economic environment and suggest measures to lessen risks in the upcoming projects; could intervene when the issues could not be addressed within the agreement. He can be empowered to renegotiate during the ailing phase of the project, thereby ensure successful implementation of PPP projects and create win-win situation to all stakeholders. -Gurgaon Expressway

Description The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI), under the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRT&H), was entrusted the responsibility for implementation of the project (Highway Project connecting the four metro cities of New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata). As a part of this project, it proposed the conversion of a very busy section of NH-8 connecting Delhi to Gurgaon into a 6/8 lane access controlled divided carriageway.The then existing 4 lane, 27.7 km section of NH-8 between Delhi and Gurgaon with as many as 20 intersections, experienced high vehicular density (145,000 Passenger Car Units (PCUs)/day in 2000) and non-segregation of traffic that led to increase in accidents, acute congestion, wastage of fuel and excessive pollution.The project was awarded to the consortium of Jaypee Industries and DS Construction Ltd to design, finance, construct, operate & maintain the facility for a concession period of 20 years. As in a typical BOT highway project, the Concessionaire is allowed to collect toll from the users of the project facility during the operation period to recover his investment and the expressway is required to be transferred back to the Government at the end of the concession period.This was the first BOT project in India to have been awarded on negative grant basis where in the concessionaire offered to pay an upfront fee to NHAI in return of the concession as against a capital grant from the Government. In consideration of robust traffic projections, the selected bidder offered to pay Rs. 61.06 crore to NHAI. The expressway was commissioned in January 2008 after much delay primarily owing to issues in land acquisition and changes in the scope of work. It carries more than 180,000 PCUs per day as on date.

Project Structure (PPP)

The project was awarded to the consortium of Jaiprakash Industries Ltd and DS Construction Ltd on Built-Operate-Transfer (BOT) basis for a period of 20 years. The selected concessionaire offered to pay Rs. 61.06 crore upfront as negative grant to the NHAI. The Concessionaire was required to design, construct, operate and maintain the expressway in accordance with the specifications as approved by NHAI. The concession period included the construction period to encourage the concessionaire to complete the construction early. A Special Purpose Vehicle called the Delhi Gurgaon Super Connectivity Ltd (formerly Jaypee DSC Ventures Ltd.), was created for execution of the project. While at the time of bidding, Jaiprakash Industries had a controlling stake of 51% and DS Constructions held 49%, during the course of project implementation, Jaiprakash Industries reduced its stake in the SPV to about 1.2%. The SPV entered into a fixed time-fixed price Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) contract with DS Constructions Limited for this project.