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The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors

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Report The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors international risk governance council P 2 Abbreviations used in the text: $,'6 $FTXLUHG,PPXQH'H¿FLHQF\6\QGURPH &$6 &RPSOH[$GDSWLYH6\VWHP &0( &RURQDO0DVV(MHFWLRQ CO2 &DUERQ'LR[LGH *0 *HQHWLFDOO\0RGL¿HG *36 *OREDO3RVLWLRQLQJ6\VWHP +,9 +XPDQ,PPXQRGH¿FLHQF\9LUXV ,186 ,QVXI¿FLHQWEXW1HFHVVDU\SDUWRIDQ8QQHFHVVDU\EXW6XI¿FLHQWFDXVH ,5*& ,QWHUQDWLRQDO5LVN*RYHUQDQFH&RXQFLO ,7 ,QIRUPDWLRQ7HFKQRORJ\ /1* /LTXLG1DWXUDO*DV 1*2 1RQ*RYHUQPHQWDO2UJDQLVDWLRQ 2(&' 2UJDQLVDWLRQIRU(FRQRPLF&R2SHUDWLRQDQG'HYHORSPHQW SSP 3DUWVSHUPLOOLRQ 5'0 5REXVW'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJ 6&$'$ 6XSHUYLVRU\&RQWURODQG'DWD$FTXLVLWLRQ 8. 8QLWHG.LQJGRP 86 8QLWHG6WDWHV &RYHU3KRWRJUDSK+XJL2ODIVVRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO5LVN*RYHUQDQFH&RXQFLO*HQHYD 5HSURGXFWLRQRIRULJLQDO,5*&PDWHULDOLVDXWKRULVHGSURYLGHGWKDW,5*&LVDFNQRZOHGJHGDVWKHVRXUFH ,6%1 international risk governance council The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors P 3 Abbreviations 02 Contents Preface 04 Executive summary 05 I Introduction 08 II Definitions of terms 09 III The systems perspective 12 IV Recognising complexity 14 V Why risks emerge: contributing factors to fertile ground 16 VI Twelve generic contributing factors to fertile ground 18 Factor #1: Scientific unknowns 18 Factor #2: Loss of safety margins 22 Factor #3: Positive feedback 24 Factor #4: Varying susceptibilities to risk 26 Factor #5: Conflicts about interests, values and science 28 Factor #6: Social dynamics 30 Factor #7: Technological advances 33 Factor #8: Temporal complications 36 Factor #9: Communication 39 Factor #10: Information asymmetries 41 Factor #11: Perverse incentives 44 Factor #12: Malicious motives and acts 46 Conclusion and way forward 49 Glossary 53 References 54 Acknowledgements 58 About IRGC 59 The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors international risk governance council P 4 Preface The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) aims to support governments, business and other organisations 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    Ten Years of PAMELA in Space The PAMELA collaboration O. Adriani(1)(2), G. C. Barbarino(3)(4), G. A. Bazilevskaya(5), R. Bellotti(6)(7), M. Boezio(8), E. A. Bogomolov(9), M. Bongi(1)(2), V. Bonvicini(8), S. Bottai(2), A. Bruno(6)(7), F. Cafagna(7), D. Campana(4), P. Carlson(10), M. Casolino(11)(12), G. Castellini(13), C. De Santis(11), V. Di Felice(11)(14), A. M. Galper(15), A. V. Karelin(15), S. V. Koldashov(15), S. Koldobskiy(15), S. Y. Krutkov(9), A. N. Kvashnin(5), A. Leonov(15), V. Malakhov(15), L. Marcelli(11), M. Martucci(11)(16), A. G. Mayorov(15), W. Menn(17), M. Mergè(11)(16), V. V. Mikhailov(15), E. Mocchiutti(8), A. Monaco(6)(7), R. Munini(8), N. Mori(2), G. Osteria(4), B. Panico(4), P. Papini(2), M. Pearce(10), P. Picozza(11)(16), M. Ricci(18), S. B. Ricciarini(2)(13), M. Simon(17), R. Sparvoli(11)(16), P. Spillantini(1)(2), Y. I. Stozhkov(5), A. Vacchi(8)(19), E. Vannuccini(1), G. Vasilyev(9), S. A. Voronov(15), Y. T. Yurkin(15), G. Zampa(8) and N. Zampa(8) (1) University of Florence, Department of Physics, I-50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Florence, Italy (2) INFN, Sezione di Florence, I-50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Florence, Italy (3) University of Naples “Federico II”, Department of Physics, I-80126 Naples, Italy (4) INFN, Sezione di Naples, I-80126 Naples, Italy (5) Lebedev Physical Institute, RU-119991 Moscow, Russia (6) University of Bari, I-70126 Bari, Italy (7) INFN, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari, Italy (8) INFN, Sezione di Trieste, I-34149 Trieste, Italy (9) Ioffe Physical Technical Institute, RU-194021 St.
  • Examining Emerging Risks

    Examining Emerging Risks

    CAS Professional Education IN FOCUS: TAMING CATS‐MANAGING NATURAL AND MAN‐MADE CATASTROPHE RISKS BALTIMORE, MD EXAMINING EMERGING RISKS Alan D. Roth, Ph.D. Chief Risk Officer, Advanced Fusion Systems, LLC TOPICS TO BE COVERED • CLIMATE CHANGE • WATER SCARCITY • FOOD SCARCITY • FUEL SCARCITY • SOLAR STORMS • EMP • PANDEMICS • CYBER WARFARE CLIMATE CHANGE Is it real? This is from NASA Where? –is also important! We need to consider: • Pacific Decadal Oscillation • North Atlantic Oscillation • Southern Oscillation: El Niño and La Niña • Arctic Oscillation • Trade winds • Meridional Overturning Circulation (aka Conveyor Belt) Temperature from 1884 to 2011 Ocean currents are varied http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2012‐099 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) NOAA: North Atlantic Oscillation NOAA: North Atlantic Oscillation Arctic Oscillation The state of atmospheric circulation over the Arctic. Red is low pressure, blue is high pressure. Influences weather patterns at lower latitudes. Effect of changes in temperature distribution on extremes ”MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREME EVENTS AND DISASTERS TO ADVANCE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS” Special Report of the IPCC 2012 page 6 The. Different changes in temperature distributions between present and future climate and their effects on extreme values of the distributions: (a) effects of a simple shift of the entire distribution toward a warmer climate; (b) effects of an increase in temperature variability with no shift in the mean; (c) effects of an altered shape of the distribution, in this example a change in asymmetry toward the hotter part of the distribution. (courtesy IPCC) Arctic Sea Ice Extent thru Sept. ‘12 Ice Decreasing at an Increasing Rate 2007 vs 2012 Abrupt Climate Change 23 Times! Courtesy Rihichar d B.
  • Astrophysics in 2006 3

    Astrophysics in 2006 3

    ASTROPHYSICS IN 2006 Virginia Trimble1, Markus J. Aschwanden2, and Carl J. Hansen3 1 Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-4575, Las Cumbres Observatory, Santa Barbara, CA: ([email protected]) 2 Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory, Organization ADBS, Building 252, 3251 Hanover Street, Palo Alto, CA 94304: ([email protected]) 3 JILA, Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder CO 80309: ([email protected]) Received ... : accepted ... Abstract. The fastest pulsar and the slowest nova; the oldest galaxies and the youngest stars; the weirdest life forms and the commonest dwarfs; the highest energy particles and the lowest energy photons. These were some of the extremes of Astrophysics 2006. We attempt also to bring you updates on things of which there is currently only one (habitable planets, the Sun, and the universe) and others of which there are always many, like meteors and molecules, black holes and binaries. Keywords: cosmology: general, galaxies: general, ISM: general, stars: general, Sun: gen- eral, planets and satellites: general, astrobiology CONTENTS 1. Introduction 6 1.1 Up 6 1.2 Down 9 1.3 Around 10 2. Solar Physics 12 2.1 The solar interior 12 2.1.1 From neutrinos to neutralinos 12 2.1.2 Global helioseismology 12 2.1.3 Local helioseismology 12 2.1.4 Tachocline structure 13 arXiv:0705.1730v1 [astro-ph] 11 May 2007 2.1.5 Dynamo models 14 2.2 Photosphere 15 2.2.1 Solar radius and rotation 15 2.2.2 Distribution of magnetic fields 15 2.2.3 Magnetic flux emergence rate 15 2.2.4 Photospheric motion of magnetic fields 16 2.2.5 Faculae production 16 2.2.6 The photospheric boundary of magnetic fields 17 2.2.7 Flare prediction from photospheric fields 17 c 2008 Springer Science + Business Media.
  • Item Specifications High School Osas Science Test

    Item Specifications High School Osas Science Test

    ITEM SPECIFICATIONS HIGH SCHOOL OSAS SCIENCE TEST 2014 Oregon Science Standards (NGSS) Introduction This document presents item specifications for use with the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). These standards are based on the Framework for K-12 Science Education. The present document is not intended to replace the standards, but rather to present guidelines for the development of items and item clusters used to measure those standards. The remainder of this section provides a very brief introduction to the standards and the framework, an overview of the design and intent of the item clusters, and a description of specifications that follow. The bulk of the document is composed of specifications, organized by grade and standard. Background on the framework and standards The Framework for K-12 Science Education is organized around three core dimensions of scientific understanding. The standards are derived from these same dimensions: Disciplinary Core Ideas The fundamental ideas that are necessary for understanding a given science discipline. The core ideas all have broad importance within or across science or engineering disciplines, provide a key tool for understanding or investigating complex ideas and solving problems, relate to societal or personal concerns, and can be taught over multiple grade levels at progressive levels of depth and complexity. Science and Engineering Practices The practices are what students do to make sense of phenomena. They are both a set of skills and a set of knowledge to be internalized. The SEPs (Science and Engineering Practices) reflect the major practices that scientists and engineers use to investigate the world and design and build systems.
  • Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid

    Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid

    Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid Contact: Dan McMorrow — [email protected] November 2011 JSR-11-320 Approved for public release. Distribution unlimited. JASON The MITRE Corporation 7515 Colshire Drive McLean, Virginia 22102-7508 (703) 983-6997 Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202- 4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. (DD-MM-YYYY) (From - To) 1. REPORT DATE 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED November 2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 13119022 5e. TASK NUMBER PS 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER The MITRE Corporation JASON Program Office JSR-11-320 7515 Colshire Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 9.
  • Potential Causes of Global Crisis Branislav R Tanasic* National University Sabac, Serbia

    Potential Causes of Global Crisis Branislav R Tanasic* National University Sabac, Serbia

    aphy & N r at Tanasic, J Geogr Nat Disast 2017, 7:1 og u e ra l G f D DOI: 10.4172/2167-0587.1000183 o i s l a Journal of a s n t r e u r s o J ISSN: 2167-0587 Geography & Natural Disasters ResearchResearch Article Article Open Access Potential Causes of Global Crisis Branislav R Tanasic* National University Sabac, Serbia Abstract Modern world is greatly and rapidly changing. The conditions for life work and survival are the more difficult and complex. Overall, modern humanity is going through an extremely complicated process, ranging from the extremes of developed and landscaped socio-economic system to unstable countries and regions in frequent war conflicts. The increasing consumption of natural resources, fossil fuels, then the drinking water, air, and soil pollution, with the evident climate change, can only deepen and generate a crisis. It is generally known the difficulty, a clear threat. Knowledge and awareness of the planet's limited reserves directed to the use of the alternative energy sources. The question is what the vitally important resource is, and that these natural and anthropogenic incidents can cause major crises and disasters? Keywords: Crisis; disaster; Natural resources; Energy Water Introduction Water is the source of life and the necessity to maintain life. The initiator of the development, but it can be a limiting factor for progress. The crisis etymologically derived from the Greek word crisis which The average need for a healthy, adult human for drinking water is about means a final judgment, thinking, and breakpoint when making the 2.5 liters per day.