Report The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors international risk governance council P 2 Abbreviations used in the text: $,'6 $FTXLUHG,PPXQH'H¿FLHQF\6\QGURPH &$6 &RPSOH[$GDSWLYH6\VWHP &0( &RURQDO0DVV(MHFWLRQ CO2 &DUERQ'LR[LGH *0 *HQHWLFDOO\0RGL¿HG *36 *OREDO3RVLWLRQLQJ6\VWHP +,9 +XPDQ,PPXQRGH¿FLHQF\9LUXV ,186 ,QVXI¿FLHQWEXW1HFHVVDU\SDUWRIDQ8QQHFHVVDU\EXW6XI¿FLHQWFDXVH ,5*& ,QWHUQDWLRQDO5LVN*RYHUQDQFH&RXQFLO ,7 ,QIRUPDWLRQ7HFKQRORJ\ /1* /LTXLG1DWXUDO*DV 1*2 1RQ*RYHUQPHQWDO2UJDQLVDWLRQ 2(&' 2UJDQLVDWLRQIRU(FRQRPLF&R2SHUDWLRQDQG'HYHORSPHQW SSP 3DUWVSHUPLOOLRQ 5'0 5REXVW'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJ 6&$'$ 6XSHUYLVRU\&RQWURODQG'DWD$FTXLVLWLRQ 8. 8QLWHG.LQJGRP 86 8QLWHG6WDWHV &RYHU3KRWRJUDSK+XJL2ODIVVRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO5LVN*RYHUQDQFH&RXQFLO*HQHYD 5HSURGXFWLRQRIRULJLQDO,5*&PDWHULDOLVDXWKRULVHGSURYLGHGWKDW,5*&LVDFNQRZOHGJHGDVWKHVRXUFH ,6%1 international risk governance council The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors P 3 Abbreviations 02 Contents Preface 04 Executive summary 05 I Introduction 08 II Definitions of terms 09 III The systems perspective 12 IV Recognising complexity 14 V Why risks emerge: contributing factors to fertile ground 16 VI Twelve generic contributing factors to fertile ground 18 Factor #1: Scientific unknowns 18 Factor #2: Loss of safety margins 22 Factor #3: Positive feedback 24 Factor #4: Varying susceptibilities to risk 26 Factor #5: Conflicts about interests, values and science 28 Factor #6: Social dynamics 30 Factor #7: Technological advances 33 Factor #8: Temporal complications 36 Factor #9: Communication 39 Factor #10: Information asymmetries 41 Factor #11: Perverse incentives 44 Factor #12: Malicious motives and acts 46 Conclusion and way forward 49 Glossary 53 References 54 Acknowledgements 58 About IRGC 59 The Emergence of Risks: Contributing Factors international risk governance council P 4 Preface The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) aims to support governments, business and other organisations 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