Center for Public Policy : Polls Where policy matters. Survey of 1016 Likely Voters - Virginia Statewide Survey – VA U.S. Senate Poll September 4-12 (13-17 paused for Hurricane Florence) 18-21, 2018 Q1. The general election for United States Senate in Virginia is November 6th this year. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? Percent Tim Kaine, Democrat 55 Corey Stewart, Republican 39 Don’t Know/ Refused 6 Total 100 Q2a. Please tell me whether, in general, you have a very favorable, favorable, unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of these candidates. - Tim Kaine Percent Very Favorable 23 Favorable 32 Unfavorable 18 Very unfavorable 17 Heard of him but I have no opinion 7 Never heard of him 1 Don’t Know/ Refused 2 Total 100 Q2b. Please tell me whether, in general, you have a very favorable, favorable, unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of these candidates. - Corey Stewart Percent Very Favorable 6 Favorable 27 Unfavorable 15 Very unfavorable 21 Heard of him but I have no opinion 14 Never heard of him 13 Don’t Know/ Refused 4 Total 100 Q3. Please tell me which one issue on this list should be the top priority of the next U. S. Senator of Virginia, no matter who it is: Percent Working to improve the economy and create jobs 26 Education 16 Gun Control 10 Health care 31 Improving transportation infrastructure such as bridges, tunnels, and road 16 surfaces Don’t Know/ Refused 1 Total 100 Q4. Overall, do you approve or do you disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as the President of the United States? Percent Approve 42 Disapprove 55 Don’t Know/ Refused 3 Total 100 Q5. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Ralph Northam is doing as the current Governor of Virginia? Percent Approve 63 Disapprove 28 Don’t Know/ Refused 9 Total 100 Immigration Q6. Would you say that people who move to the United States legally from other countries help the United States more than they hurt it, OR hurt the United States more than they help it? Percent Help the United States more than they hurt it 81 Hurt the United States more than they help it 15 Don’t Know/ Refused 4 Total 100 Q7. When the U.S. government is deciding which immigrants to admit to this country, should priority be given to people who have family members already living in the U.S., OR should priority be given to people based on education, job skills and work experience? Percent People with family members 20 Based on background 44 It depends 32 Don’t Know/ Refused 4 Total 100 Future direction of each party Q8. Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right? Percent I would prefer my elected officials work with members of the other political party even if it means they have to compromise on some of their values and 76 priorities I would prefer my elected officials pursue their own values and priorities even if 21 it means they are unwilling to work with members of the other political party Don’t Know/ Refused 3 Total 100 Q9. Thinking about the Democratic Party these days, do you think it is mostly united or mostly divided in its views on issues and vision for the future? Percent Mostly united 48 Mostly divided 49 Don’t Know/ Refused 3 Total 100 Q10. Thinking about the Republican Party these days, do you think it is mostly united or mostly divided in its views on issues and vision for the future? Percent Mostly united 37 Mostly divided 61 Don’t Know/ Refused 3 Total 100 Q11. Thinking about the future of the Democratic Party, would you say that you are very optimistic, somewhat optimistic, somewhat pessimistic, or very pessimistic? Percent Very optimistic 13 Somewhat optimistic 35 Somewhat pessimistic 22 Very pessimistic 27 Don’t Know/ Refused 3 Total 100 Q12. Thinking about the future of the Republican Party, would you say that you are very optimistic, somewhat optimistic, somewhat pessimistic, or very pessimistic? Percent Very optimistic 12 Somewhat optimistic 26 Somewhat pessimistic 24 Very pessimistic 35 Don’t Know/ Refused 3 Total 100 Medicaid Expansion Q13. As you may know, Virginia recently approved an expansion of Medicaid that will go into effect on January 1, 2019. For states that expand their Medicaid program to cover more low- income uninsured adults, the federal government pays for at least 90 percent of the costs of this expansion. Would you say you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose Medicaid expansion in Virginia? Percent Strongly favor 46 Somewhat favor 26 Somewhat oppose 16 Strongly oppose 11 Don’t Know/ Refused 1 Total 100 The statewide survey of registered voters in Virginia was conducted by a professional call center (SSRS – Social Science Research Solutions) for the Hampton University Center for Public Policy under the general direction of Kelly Harvey-Viney, JD. The sample was attained from the registered voter list for Virginia. These data were weighted to reflect the voter registration population of Virginians ages 18 years of age and older. For online completes, a propensity score was applied to model non-Internet households so that estimates can be projectable to the full U.S. population. Propensity scores are estimated by fitting a regression of the response status on a range of demographic and attitudinal covariates. Adjustments for each participant are then calculated as the reciprocal of the estimated response propensity found from the model. Following application of the above weights, the sample is post-stratified and balanced by key demographics such as age, race, sex, education, marital status, region, and party affiliation. The sample is also weighted to reflect the distribution of phone usage for registered voters of Virginia, meaning the proportion of those who are cell phone only, landline only, and mixed users. A Total of 1016 interviews were conducted. The survey began on September 4, 2018. Due to Hurricane Florence, phone interviews were paused from September 13-17, 2018. Surveys on the web were conducted uninterrupted. The entire survey collection period concluded on September 21, 2018. The interviews included, 235 Landline sample, 249 cell sample, and 532 web sample. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.8% for the full sample. Demographics D1. Please tell me which of the following general categories best describes your age: Percent 18-24 5 25-34 12 35-44 15 45-54 17 55-64 20 65-74 20 75 or older 11 Don’t know/ Refused 0 Total 100 D2. What is the last grade in school you completed?: Percent Less than high school (Grades 1-8 or no formal schooling) 1 High school incomplete (Grades 9-11 or Grade 12 with NO diploma) 4 High school graduate (Grade 12 with diploma or GED certificate or vocational, 24 business technical or other training that did not count toward a degree) Some college, no degree (includes community college) 17 Two year associate degree from a college or university 9 Four year college or university degree/Bachelor’s degree (e.g., BS, BA, AB) 18 Some postgraduate or professional schooling, no postgraduate degree 6 Postgraduate or professional degree, including master’s, doctorate, medical or 20 law degree (e.g., MA, MS, PhD, MD, JD) Don’t know/ Refused 1 Total 100 D3. What is your current marital status? Are you currently married, widowed, divorced, separated, or have you never been married? Percent Single that is never married 22 Single, living with a partner 3 Married 59 Separated 1 Widowed 6 Divorced 9 Don’t know/ Refused 1 Total 100 D4. Currently, are you yourself employed full time, part time, or not at all?: Percent Full‑time 55 Part‑time 10 Not employed 33 Don’t know/ Refused 1 Total 100 D4a. Respondents That Are Not Employed, would you say you are... Percent Retired 55 A homemaker 13 A student 8 Temporarily unemployed 5 Disabled/handicapped 13 Other -- Don’t know/ Refused 5 Total 100 D5. Please estimate your Total household income for 2017. Which of the following general categories best represents your Total family income from 2017: Percent Under $20,000 9 $20,000 to under $30,000 8 $30,000 to under $40,000 5 $40,000 to under $50,000 6 $50,000 to under $60,000 8 $60,000 to under $70,000 7 $70,000 to under $100,000 13 $100,000 to under $150,000 13 $150,000 or more 16 Don’t know/ Prefer not to answer 15 Total 100 D6. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, or something else? Percent Democrat 29 Republican 25 Independent 33 Something else 12 Don’t know/ Refused 1 Total 100 D7. Respondents that consider themselves independent or something else, would you say you generally lean more toward Democrat or more toward Republican? Percent Democrat 47 Republican 42 Don’t know/ Refused 11 Total 100 D8/D9. (Total Respondents) Please tell me with which of the following races do you most closely identify? Percent African-American/ Black 17 Caucasian/ White 70 Hispanic/Latino 5 Other 6 Don’t know/ Refused 2 Total 100.