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2020 Elections Forecasting November 2, 2020

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2020 Elections Forecasting November 2, 2020 2020 Elections Forecasting November 2, 2020 1 Slides 3-30: Presidential and Vice Presidential Contest Slide 4: Observations & Analysis Slide 5: Voting by Mail Slide 6: Early Voting Slides 7-8: FiveThirtyEight Projections Slide 9-10: Cook Political Report Ratings and Observations Slide 11-12: Past & Present Polling Maps Slide 13: Candidate Approval Ratings Slide 14: Vice President Approval Ratings Slide 15: Will there be a winner on Election Night? Slides 16-18: “The SCOTUS Election” & Trump’s Supreme Court Nominee Slides 19-30: Races to Watch Slides 31-45: Senate Races Slide 32: Observations & Analysis Slide 33: Current Polling Map Slides 34-45: Races to Watch Slides 46-81: House Races Slide 47: Observations & Analysis Slide 48: Current Polling Map Slides 49-82: Races to Watch 2 Presidential and Vice Presidential Contest 3 Observations & Analysis • The electoral college consists of 538 electors and an absolute majority is required to win the election (270 votes) • The major party nominees are Vice President Joe Biden (D) and President Donald Trump (R) • States to watch: • Leaning Democratic: Minnesota, New Hampshire • Leaning Republican: Texas, Iowa, Georgia • Tossups: Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin • In recent days, President Trump has suggested a COVID-19 vaccine could be approved prior to Election Day. This could be a major factor in how voters cast their votes. However, mail in voting could mean that many ballots are cast before such an announcement is made 4 Voting by Mail • Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, most states will be conducting elections by mail • According to Charlie Cook, there will still be a high voter turnout in 2020 with the majority of votes being cast by mail, but some GOP strategists are worried that President Trump’s opposition to mail-in voting could suppress the Republican vote • Eight states began mailing absentee ballots to voters more than 45 days before the election: Arkansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wisconsin • Fifteen states began mailing absentee ballots to voters 45 days before the election: Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming • Thirteen states began mailing absentee ballots to voters 30-45 days before the election: California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota and South Carolina • Fourteen states mailed absentee ballots to voters fewer than 30 days before the election: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Utah and Washington • In Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington, all voters are mailed ballots 5 Early Voting • As of November 2, more than 91 million Americans have already voted, according to the U.S. Elections Project, 69.2 percent of the total turnout in 2016 • Democrats are experiencing a lead in early voting over Republicans in six of the most crucial battle ground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) • In addition, Democrats are turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP, according to internal data • While early voting data does not mean Trump will lose to Biden, both sides are bracing for a close race and a wave of Republicans to vote in person on November 3 6 FiveThirtyEight Presidential Projection ● On August 12, FiveThirtyEight issued its first 2020 presidential race projection, concluding that Vice President Biden is favored to win ● In FiveThirtyEight’s most recent simulation, Biden wins 90 in 100 scenarios, while Trump wins in 10 ● Biden is comfortably ahead of Trump nationally and in most battleground states ● At this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the polls. While she had small advantage, Trump’s win was well within the range of normal polling error ● Biden’s lead over Trump has already topped Clinton’s post-convention peak. Since Biden enjoys more overall support than Clinton did four years ago, Biden is currently thought to be in a better position than Clinton was at this point in the campaign 7 FiveThirtyEight Presidential Projection Source: FiveThirtyEight.com November 2, 2020 8 Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings Source: CookPolitical.com November 2, 2020 9 Cook Political Report Observations ● On September 28, Charlie Cook said there is a 20% chance of Trump winning reelection ● Additionally, he reported there is 40% chance of Biden winning three states Hillary lost narrowly, and therefore winning the Electoral College ● There is also 40% chance Biden wins big, in a “blow away” that even brings him states such as Georgia and Texas 10 11 Source: 270towin.com As of November 2, 2020 12 Candidate Approval Ratings Trump: • According to FiveThirtyEight, as of November 2, Trump’s approval rating is 44.5% with a 52.6% disapproval rating Biden: • According to RealClearPolitics, Biden currently holds a 50.8% favorable rating with a 44.0% unfavorable rating as of October 31 • As of July 1, Biden was polling better than any presidential challenger since Bill Clinton in 1992. His polling advantages do not seem to be fading, and Vice President Biden may be able to buck the trend of diminishing polling leads going into the Fall • Biden received no discernible national polling bounce from the DNC, but he still maintains a clear lead 13 Impacts of the Vice Presidential Race ● Throughout electoral history, the importance of the vice presidential pick has been considered critical or immensely insignificant ● On August 11, Biden announced Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) as his running mate. The historical nature of this choice could make the race for the second office important to the outcome of November’s election ● According to the Real Clear Politics average, Harris’ favorability rating is 48.8%, 5 points above her 43.8% unfavorability rating, as of October 31 ● Similarly, as of October 31, Vice President Pence’s favorability rating is 44.0%, 5.2 points below his 49.2% unfavorability rating 14 Will there be a winner on Election Night? ● In most states, mail-in ballots can be postmarked on or before Election Day and typically take longer to count. With more states expanding mail voting and more voters planning on voting by mail, it might be days or even weeks before all votes are counted ● An August 14 poll conducted by CNN/SRSS found that 53% of Biden supporters planned to vote by mail this election, compared to just 12% of Trump supporters ● The difference between the counting of election day results and the slower mail-in results could mean that President Trump may appear to have an early landslide lead on Election Day that could disappear as mail-in votes are counted ● A “red mirage,” or an early Trump landslide followed by a Biden win, could give Trump an opportunity to call into question the integrity of the election ● Hawkfish, a Democratic data and analytics firm, modeled how the Electoral College would shift as mail-in votes are counted and forecasted the results of the election could be unknown until up to four days later ● Benjamin Ginsberg, a longtime Republican election lawyer, puts the odds of the 2020 presidential election ending up in an all-out legal brawl that lasts into January at less than 1%, with a high chance of the winner being called on election night or within the following three weeks 15 Supreme Court Nominee 16 “The SCOTUS Election” ● Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death on September 18 left a seat open on the court ● On September 21, Senate Majority Leader McConnell said the chamber would vote on a Trump nominee by the end of the year ● Democrats cried foul as the GOP pushed to swiftly fill the vacancy, noting that Republicans refused to hold hearings on former President Barack Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland during the 2016 election, claiming the next president should choose a justice ● The Senate Judiciary Committee concluded confirmation hearings and advanced Barrett’s nomination on October 22 ● On October 26, Barrett was confirmed by a vote of 52-48, the first time in 151 years that a justice was put on the Supreme Court without a single vote from the opposition party 17 Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett • CONFIRMED ON OCTOBER 26, 2020 • U.S. Seventh Circuit Court Judge • Former clerk to Justice Antonin Scalia • Was a finalist for the Supreme Court spot that went to Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 • Democratic senators and liberal advocates have long opposed her, warning particularly that she could roll back abortion rights and invalidate the Affordable Care Act 18 States to Watch 19 Minnesota Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: SUSA October 27 Polls from October Biden: 47 12 to October 27 Trump: 42 Biden: 48.0 Spread: Biden +5 Trump: 43.7 Spread: Biden +4.3 20 New Hampshire Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: St. Anselm October 26 Polls from Biden: 52 September 23 to October 12 Trump: 44 Biden: 53.4 Spread: Biden +8 Trump: 42.4 Spread: Biden +11.0 21 Texas Most Recent Polling Data Real Clear Politics Compilation Data Source: Emerson Polls from October October 31 20 to October 31 Biden: 49 Biden: 46.5 Trump: 49 Trump: 47.7 Spread: TIE Spread: Trump: +1.2 22 Iowa Real Clear Politics Most Recent Polling Data Compilation Data Source: Polls from October InsiderAdvantage 21 to October 30 October 30 Biden: 45.8 Biden: 46 Trump:
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