The Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Market: 2014 – 2020

Table of Contents

List of Figures ...... 12 1 Chapter 1: Introduction ...... 15 1.1 Executive Summary ...... 15 1.2 Key Findings ...... 18 1.3 Topics Covered ...... 19 1.4 Forecast Segmentation ...... 20 1.5 Key Questions Answered ...... 22 1.6 Methodology ...... 24 1.7 Target Audience ...... 25 1.8 Companies Mentioned ...... 26 2 Chapter 2: An Overview of the Public Safety Mobile Broadband Market ...... 31 2.1 Narrowband Land Mobile Radio (LMR) Systems in Public Safety ...... 31 2.1.1 LMR Market Size ...... 32 2.1.2 The Perceived Role of Mobile Broadband in Public Safety Scenarios ...... 33 2.1.3 The Limitations of LMR Data Capabilities ...... 33 2.2 Mobile Broadband for Public Safety ...... 34 2.2.1 Partnerships with Commercial Carriers ...... 34 2.2.2 Private LTE and WiMAX Deployments ...... 34 2.3 How big is the Mobile Broadband Market? ...... 34 2.3.1 Will the Public Safety Segment Witness the Same Level of Growth as the Consumer Segment? .... 35 2.3.2 What are the Growth Drivers? ...... 35 2.3.3 LMR Systems will Continue to Support Mission-Critical Voice ...... 37 2.4 Why use Commercial Mobile Broadband Technology for Public Safety ...... 38 2.5 Why LTE? ...... 38 2.5.1 Performance Metrics ...... 38 2.5.2 Coexistence, Interoperability and Spectrum Flexibility ...... 39 2.5.3 A Thriving Ecosystem ...... 39 2.5.4 OPEX Reduction ...... 39 2.6 Public Safety LTE Technology & Architecture ...... 41 2.6.1 E-UTRAN - LTE Radio Access Network ...... 42 2.6.2 TDD vs. FDD ...... 43

Page 2

2.6.3 UE (User Equipment) ...... 43 2.6.3.1 USB Data Cards ...... 43 2.6.3.2 Vehicular Modems ...... 44 2.6.3.3 Smartphones & Handheld LMR Terminals ...... 44 2.6.3.4 Tablets & Laptops ...... 44 2.6.4 Public Safety LTE EPC (Evolved Packet Core) ...... 45 2.6.4.1 SGW (Serving Gateway) ...... 45 2.6.4.2 PGW (Packet Data Network Gateway) ...... 45 2.6.4.3 MME (Mobility Management Entity) ...... 46 2.6.4.4 HSS (Home Subscriber Server) ...... 46 2.6.4.5 PCRF (Policy Charging and Rules Function) ...... 46 2.6.5 LMR Network Integration and Inter-Working ...... 47 2.6.6 Support for Roaming in Public Safety LTE ...... 48 2.6.7 Inter-System Roaming ...... 48 2.6.8 Intra-System Roaming to Commercial Carriers ...... 48 2.6.9 The Evolution to LTE-Advanced and its Implications for Public Safety ...... 49 2.7 Public Safety LTE Deployment Models ...... 50 2.7.1 Private Public Satiety LTE Network Deployments ...... 50 2.7.2 Shared Commercial Public Safety LTE (Private-Public Partnerships) ...... 50 2.7.3 Public Safety LTE Access over Commercial Networks ...... 50 2.7.4 Hosted Core Public Safety LTE Networks ...... 51 2.8 Funding Models for Private Public Safety LTE Network Deployment ...... 51 2.8.1 Built, Owned and Operated by Integrator/Vendor ...... 51 2.8.2 Owned and Operated by the Government Authority ...... 51 2.8.3 Local Agency Hosted Core ...... 52 2.8.4 Multiple Networks ...... 52 2.9 The Public Safety LTE Business Case ...... 53 2.9.1 Higher throughput and Low Latency ...... 53 2.9.2 Economic Feasibility ...... 53 2.9.3 Bandwidth Flexibility ...... 53 2.9.4 Spectral Efficiency ...... 53 2.9.5 Regional Interoperability ...... 54 2.9.6 Lack of Competition from Other Standards ...... 54 2.9.7 Endorsement from the Public Safety Community ...... 55 2.9.8 Commitments by Infrastructure and Device vendors ...... 55

Page 3

2.9.9 Quality of Service (QoS) & Priority Provisioning ...... 56 2.9.10 Support for Group Voice & Multimedia Communication ...... 56 2.10 Challenges to the Public Safety LTE Ecosystem ...... 57 2.10.1 Spectrum Allocation ...... 57 2.10.2 Interworking with LMR Networks & Standardization...... 58 2.10.3 Budgetary Issues ...... 58 2.10.4 Security & Resilience ...... 59 2.10.5 Support for Mission-Critical Voice and Direct Mode-Operation ...... 59 2.10.6 Smaller Coverage Footprint to Comparison to LMR Systems...... 60 2.10.7 Lack of Specifications for Battery Life in Public Safety Scenarios ...... 60 2.10.8 User Profiles to Fit Public Safety Requirements ...... 61 3 Chapter 3: Public Safety LTE and Mobile Broadband Industry Roadmap ...... 62 3.1 Industry Roadmap ...... 62 3.2 2011 – 2013: The Disparate Networks Era ...... 63 3.3 2014 – 2016: Mission Critical Data over Private LTE ...... 63 3.4 2017 – 2020: Emergence of Mission Critical Voice and Proximity Services ...... 64 3.5 Public Safety LTE Deployment & Trial Case Studies ...... 65 3.5.1 Zhengzhou Metro ...... 65 3.5.2 Harris County ...... 66 3.5.3 Qatar MOI ...... 67 3.5.4 Oman Royal Office ...... 67 3.5.5 Turkish National Police Force ...... 67 3.5.6 Hong Kong Police Force Trial ...... 68 3.5.7 China’s Ministry of Public Security ...... 68 3.5.8 German Armed Forces...... 68 4 Chapter 4: Public Safety LTE and Mobile Broadband Applications Ecosystem ... 69 4.1 Mobile Video ...... 69 4.2 Mobile Broadband and Seamless Mobile VPN Access ...... 70 4.3 GIS, AVLS and Mapping ...... 70 4.4 CAD (Computer Aided Dispatching) ...... 71 4.5 Remote Database Access ...... 71 4.6 Telemetry and Remote Diagnostics ...... 71 4.7 Bulk Multimedia/Data Transfers ...... 72

Page 4

4.8 Situational Awareness Applications ...... 72 4.9 PTT over LTE ...... 72 4.10 The Present State of the Market: What’s on offer ...... 73 4.11 The Numbers: How big is the Public Safety LTE Applications Ecosystem? ...... 74 5 Chapter 5: Public Safety LTE & Mobile Broadband Vendor Assessment ...... 75 5.1 7 layers AG...... 75 5.2 Aculab ...... 75 5.3 Adax ...... 76 5.4 Aeroflex ...... 76 5.5 Airbus Defence and Space (Formerly Cassidian) ...... 77 5.6 Airspan Networks ...... 78 5.7 Alcatel-Lucent ...... 78 5.8 Amdocs (Bridgewater) ...... 79 5.9 Anritsu ...... 79 5.10 Aricent Group ...... 79 5.11 Artevea ...... 80 5.12 Aviat Networks ...... 81 5.13 Avtec ...... 82 5.14 Axell Wireless (Acquired by Cobham) ...... 82 5.15 Axis Communications ...... 83 5.16 BFDX ...... 83 5.17 Broadcom ...... 84 5.18 CalAmp ...... 84 5.19 CCTI (Catalyst Communications Technologies Inc) ...... 85 5.20 Cisco ...... 85 5.21 Cobham ...... 86 5.22 CommScope ...... 86 5.23 Covia Labs ...... 87 5.24 DAMM Cellular Systems A/S ...... 87 5.25 Eastcom ...... 87 5.26 Ericsson ...... 88 5.27 ETELM ...... 88 5.28 Etherstack...... 89 5.29 EXACOM ...... 90

Page 5

5.30 Exalt Communications ...... 90 5.31 Exelis and C4i ...... 90 5.32 FREQUENTIS AG ...... 91 5.33 General Dynamics C4 Systems ...... 92 5.34 The Genesis Group ...... 93 5.35 Harris ...... 93 5.36 Hitachi ...... 94 5.37 Honeywell ...... 95 5.38 HQT Radio ...... 95 5.39 Huawei ...... 95 5.40 Hytera ...... 97 5.41 iCOM ...... 97 5.42 Imtradex ...... 98 5.43 Intel ...... 98 5.44 InterSec ...... 99 5.45 Intrado ...... 99 5.46 Japan Radio Company ...... 100 5.47 JDI (JING DENG INDUSTRIAL) ...... 100 5.48 JVC Kenwood ...... 100 5.49 Kapsch CarrierCom ...... 101 5.50 Kirisun ...... 102 5.51 Kodiak Networks ...... 102 5.52 L-3 Communications...... 103 5.53 Lemko ...... 103 5.54 LiveViewGPS ...... 104 5.55 Mentura Group ...... 105 5.56 MODUCOM ...... 105 5.57 Motorola Solutions...... 106 5.58 Mutualink ...... 108 5.59 NEC ...... 108 5.60 NetMotion Wireless ...... 109 5.61 NextNav ...... 109 5.62 NSN (Nokia Solutions & Networks) ...... 110 5.63 Northrop Grumman ...... 111 5.64 nTerop ...... 111

Page 6

5.65 Oceus Networks ...... 112 5.66 Panasonic ...... 113 5.67 Panorama Antennas ...... 113 5.68 Phonak ...... 114 5.69 Piciorgros (Funk-Electronic Piciorgros GmbH) ...... 114 5.70 Polaris ...... 114 5.71 Portalify Ltd (Acquired by Sepura) ...... 115 5.72 POTEVIO International ...... 115 5.73 PowerTrunk (Teltronic Subsidiary) ...... 116 5.74 Puxing Radio ...... 116 5.75 Qualcomm ...... 116 5.76 RACOM ...... 117 5.77 Radisys...... 117 5.78 Radio IP ...... 118 5.79 Raytheon ...... 119 5.80 Reality Mobile (ASTRO Solutions) ...... 120 5.81 RELM Wireless ...... 121 5.82 Rivada Networks ...... 121 5.83 Rohill ...... 122 5.84 SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation) ...... 123 5.85 Samsung ...... 123 5.86 Savox Communications ...... 124 5.87 Selex ES ...... 124 5.88 Sepura ...... 125 5.89 Signalion ...... 126 5.90 Simoco ...... 126 5.91 SiRRAN ...... 126 5.92 SmithMicro ...... 127 5.93 Sonic Communications ...... 127 5.94 Space Data...... 128 5.95 Star Solutions ...... 128 5.96 Stop Noise ...... 129 5.97 Tait ...... 129 5.98 Tecore Networks ...... 130 5.99 TCS (TeleCommunication Systems) ...... 130

Page 7

5.100 Televate ...... 131 5.101 TELEX (Bosch Security Systems) ...... 131 5.102 Teltronic ...... 132 5.103 Telum ...... 133 5.104 TETRAtab ...... 133 5.105 Thales ...... 134 5.106 TITAN Communication Systems ...... 135 5.107 Toshiba ...... 135 5.108 Twisted Pair Solutions (Acquired by Motorola Solutions) ...... 136 5.109 UNIMO Technology ...... 137 5.110 Utility ...... 137 5.111 Vidyo ...... 138 5.112 Zetron (Part of JVC Kenwood) ...... 138 5.113 ZTE ...... 139 6 Chapter 6: Public Safety LTE Spectrum Allocation Strategies Worldwide ...... 140 6.1 North America ...... 140 6.2 Latin & Central America ...... 141 6.3 Europe ...... 141 6.4 Middle East & Africa ...... 142 6.5 Asia Pacific ...... 143 6.6 The Prospects of Spectrum Harmonization ...... 144 7 Chapter 7: Market Analysis and Forecasts ...... 145 7.1 The Global Public Safety Mobile Broadband Market ...... 145 7.1.1 First Responder Data Subscriptions over Public (Commercial) Cellular Networks ...... 145 7.1.2 First Responder Data Subscriptions Over LMR Networks ...... 146 7.1.3 First Responder Data Subscriptions over Private Mobile Broadband ...... 147 7.1.3.1 The Unreliability of Commercial Cellular Mobile Broadband Networks ...... 147 7.1.3.2 Private Public Safety LTE and WiMAX Subscriptions Compared ...... 147 7.1.4 Private Public Safety LTE Networks ...... 149 7.1.4.1 Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks ...... 149 7.1.4.2 Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks ...... 151 7.1.4.3 Private Public Safety LTE Network Service Revenue ...... 153 7.1.5 Public Safety LTE over Public (Commercial) LTE Networks ...... 154 7.1.5.1 Public Safety Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks ...... 154

Page 8

7.1.5.2 Public Safety Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks ...... 156 7.1.5.3 Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks ...... 158 7.1.6 Private vs. Commercial Public Safety LTE Compared ...... 159 7.1.6.1 Private and Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions Compared ...... 159 7.1.6.2 Private and Commercial Public Safety LTE Device Shipments Compared ...... 160 7.1.6.3 Private and Commercial Public Safety LTE Service Revenues Compared ...... 161 7.1.7 Public Safety LTE Device Shipments by Form Factor ...... 162 7.1.8 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments ...... 163 7.1.8.1 Commercial and Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments Compared ...... 163 7.1.8.2 Regional Assessment of Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments ...... 165 7.1.9 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Installed Base ...... 166 7.2 Regional Market Assessment ...... 167 7.2.1 Asia Pacific ...... 167 7.2.1.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 167 7.2.1.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 169 7.2.1.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ...... 171 7.2.2 North America ...... 173 7.2.2.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 173 7.2.2.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 175 7.2.2.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ...... 177 7.2.3 Latin & Central America ...... 179 7.2.3.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 179 7.2.3.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 181 7.2.3.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ...... 183 7.2.4 Middle East & Africa ...... 185 7.2.4.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 185 7.2.4.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 187 7.2.4.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ...... 189 7.2.5 Eastern Europe ...... 191 7.2.5.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 191 7.2.5.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 193 7.2.5.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ...... 195 7.2.6 Western Europe ...... 197 7.2.6.1 Private Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 197 7.2.6.2 Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions, Device Shipments & Service Revenues ...... 199 7.2.6.3 Private Public Safety LTE eNodeB Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base ...... 201

Page 9

8 Chapter 8: Standardization & Regulatory Initiatives ...... 203 8.1 NPSTC (National Public Safety Telecommunications Council) ...... 203 8.2 NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) ...... 203 8.3 NTIA (National Telecommunications and Information Administration) ...... 204 8.4 PSCR (Public Safety Communications Research) ...... 204 8.5 APCO (Association of Public-Safety Communications Officials-International) ...... 205 8.6 3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project) ...... 205 8.7 TCCA (TETRA and Critical Communications Association) ...... 205 8.8 ETSI (European Telecommunications Standards Institute) ...... 206 8.9 UIC (International Union of Railways) ...... 206 8.10 ATIS (Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions) ...... 207 8.11 TIA (Telecommunications Industry Association) ...... 207 8.12 Features for Public Safety LTE Standardization ...... 208 8.12.1 Group Communications...... 208 8.12.2 Proximity based Services (3GPP ProSe) ...... 208 8.12.3 Resilience ...... 210 8.12.4 PTT Voice Application Standardization...... 210 8.12.5 Higher Power Terminals (UEs) for Public Safety Requirements ...... 211 9 Chapter 9: Conclusion and Strategic Recommendations ...... 212 9.1 How Big is the Private Public Safety LTE/EPC Mobile Core Market? ...... 212 9.2 Backhaul Investments to Support Public Safety LTE ...... 213 9.3 Military & Tactical Deployments ...... 214 9.4 Prospects of FirstNet ...... 214 9.4.1 Funding Prospects ...... 214 9.4.2 Is Funding the Key Constraint? ...... 215 9.4.3 Technical Constraints ...... 215 9.4.4 Moving Towards the Applications Ecosystem ...... 216 9.4.5 Halt of Early LTE Deployments: Good or Bad? ...... 216 9.5 Spectrum: Will 700 MHz Gear Dominate the Market Worldwide? ...... 217 9.5.1 Prospects of 400 MHz LTE ...... 217 9.5.2 TD-LTE and Opportunities for Higher Bands in Public Safety ...... 218 9.6 Proposals for Wholly Commercial Public Safety LTE Networks ...... 219 9.6.1 Case Study: UK Home Office...... 219 9.7 The Public Safety LTE MVNO Opportunity ...... 220

Page 10

9.8 Revenue Prospects for Commercial Carriers ...... 220 9.9 TCO Analysis: Private LTE vs. Public-Private Partnerships...... 221 9.10 Mission Critical PTT over LTE ...... 222 9.10.1 Off-Network PTT/LTE-Direct: A Long Road Ahead ...... 222 9.11 Standardization & Interoperability: The Key to a Successful Ecosystem ...... 223 9.12 Vendor Alliances: Are there more to come? ...... 223 9.13 What Cell Types will Public Safety LTE Networks Encompass? ...... 224 9.13.1 Macrocells ...... 226 9.13.2 Small Cells ...... 227 9.13.3 Macrocell Relay Nodes ...... 228 9.13.4 Tactical Cells on Wheels (COWs) ...... 229 9.13.5 Tactical Cells in a Box (CIABs) ...... 230 9.13.6 Airborne Cells ...... 231 9.14 Strategic Recommendations ...... 232 9.14.1 Recommendations for LMR Vendors/Integrators ...... 232 9.14.2 Recommendations for LTE Infrastructure Vendors ...... 232 9.14.3 Recommendations for Public Safety Agencies ...... 233 9.14.4 Recommendations for Commercial Wireless Carriers...... 234 10 Chapter 10: Expert Opinion – Interview Transcripts ...... 235 10.1 Airbus Defence and Space (Formerly Cassidian) ...... 235 10.2 General Dynamics C4 Systems ...... 240 10.3 Motorola Solutions...... 244 10.4 Mentura Group ...... 250 10.5 InterSec ...... 253 10.6 Aculab...... 256 10.7 Anritsu ...... 259

Page 11

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Land Mobile Radio (LMR) Subscriptions by Technology: 2011 – 2020 (Millions) ...... 32 Figure 2: Global Mobile Broadband Subscriptions by Technology: 2011 – 2020 (Millions)...... 35 Figure 3: Purpose of Using Mobile Broadband for Public Safety Applications (Survey Results - 2011 & 2013) ...... 36 Figure 4: Global LTE Subscriptions: 2011 – 2020 (Millions) ...... 40 Figure 5: Public Safety LTE Network Architecture ...... 41 Figure 6: Global Voice over LTE (VoLTE) Subscriptions: 2011 – 2020 (Millions) ...... 47 Figure 7: Public Safety LTE Industry Roadmap ...... 62 Figure 8: Global Mobile Video Surveillance Market: 2011 – 2020 ($ Million) ...... 69 Figure 9: PTT over LTE Application ...... 73 Figure 10: The Public Safety LTE/Broadband Applications Market: 2011 – 2020 ($ Million) ...... 74 Figure 11: Global First Responder Data Subscriptions over Public Cellular Networks by Technology (Millions) 2011 - 2020 ...... 146 Figure 12: Global First Responder Data Subscriptions over LMR Networks by Technology (Thousands) 2011 - 2020 ...... 146 Figure 13: Global First Responder Data Subscriptions over Private Mobile Broadband Networks by Technology (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 147 Figure 14: Global First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 149 Figure 15: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks by Region (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 150 Figure 16: Global First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 151 Figure 17: Global First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 151 Figure 18: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks by Region (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 152 Figure 19: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks by Region ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 152 Figure 20: Global Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 153 Figure 21: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks by Region ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 153 Figure 22: Global First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 154 Figure 23: Global First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks by Region (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 155 Figure 24: Global First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 156 Figure 25: Global First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 156 Figure 26: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks by Region (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 157 Figure 27: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks by Region ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 157 Figure 28: Global Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 158 Figure 29: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks by Region ($ Million): 2011 - 2020...... 158 Figure 30: Private vs. Commercial Public Safety LTE Subscriptions Compared (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 159 Figure 31: Private vs. Commercial Public Safety LTE Device Shipments Compared (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 160 Figure 32: Private vs. Commercial Public Safety LTE Device Shipments Revenues Compared ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 160 Figure 33: Private vs. Commercial Public Safety LTE Service Revenues Compared ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 161 Figure 34: Public Safety LTE Device Shipments by Category (Thousands): 2011 - 2020 ...... 162 Figure 35: Global Private (Public Safety) and Commercial LTE eNodeB Shipments Compared: 2011 - 2020 ...... 163 Figure 36: Global Private (Public Safety) and Commercial LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenues Compared ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 164 Figure 37: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments by Region: 2011 - 2020 ...... 165 Figure 38: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue by Region ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 165 Figure 39: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base by Region: 2011 - 2020 ...... 166 Figure 40: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Asia Pacific (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 167 Figure 41: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Asia Pacific (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 167 Figure 42: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in Asia Pacific ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 168 Figure 43: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Asia Pacific ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 168 Figure 44: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in Asia Pacific (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 169 Figure 45: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in Asia Pacific (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 169 Figure 46: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Asia Pacific ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 170 Figure 47: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Asia Pacific ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 170 Figure 48: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in Asia Pacific: 2011 – 2020 ...... 171 Figure 49: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in Asia Pacific ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 171 Figure 50: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in Asia Pacific: 2011 - 2020 ...... 172

Page 12

Figure 51: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in North America (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 173 Figure 52: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in North America (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 173 Figure 53: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in North America ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 174 Figure 54: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in North America ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 174 Figure 55: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in North America (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 175 Figure 56: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in North America (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 175 Figure 57: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in North America ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 176 Figure 58: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in North America ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 176 Figure 59: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in North America: 2011 – 2020 ...... 177 Figure 60: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in North America ($ Million): 2011 – 2020...... 177 Figure 61: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in North America: 2011 - 2020 ...... 178 Figure 62: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Latin & Central America (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 179 Figure 63: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Latin & Central America (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 179 Figure 64: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in Latin & Central America ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 180 Figure 65: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Latin & Central America ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 180 Figure 66: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in Latin & Central America (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 181 Figure 67: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in Latin & Central America (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 181 Figure 68: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Latin & Central America ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 182 Figure 69: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Latin & Central America ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 182 Figure 70: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in Latin & Central America: 2011 – 2020 ...... 183 Figure 71: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in Latin & Central America ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 183 Figure 72: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in Latin & Central America: 2011 - 2020 ...... 184 Figure 73: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 185 Figure 74: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 185 Figure 75: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 186 Figure 76: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 186 Figure 77: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 187 Figure 78: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 187 Figure 79: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 188 Figure 80: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Middle East & Africa ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 188 Figure 81: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in Middle East & Africa: 2011 – 2020 ...... 189 Figure 82: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in Middle East & Africa ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 189 Figure 83: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in Middle East & Africa: 2011 - 2020 ...... 190 Figure 84: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Eastern Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 191 Figure 85: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Eastern Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 191 Figure 86: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in Eastern Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 192 Figure 87: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Eastern Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 192 Figure 88: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in Eastern Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2020...... 193 Figure 89: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in Eastern Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 193 Figure 90: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Eastern Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 194 Figure 91: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Eastern Europe ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 194 Figure 92: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in Eastern Europe: 2011 – 2020 ...... 195 Figure 93: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in Eastern Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 195 Figure 94: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in Eastern Europe: 2011 - 2020 ...... 196 Figure 95: First Responder Subscriptions over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Western Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2020...... 197 Figure 96: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Western Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 197 Figure 97: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Private LTE Public Safety LTE Networks in Western Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 198 Figure 98: Service Revenue over Private Public Safety LTE Networks in Western Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2020...... 198 Figure 99: First Responder Subscriptions over Commercial LTE Networks in Western Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 199 Figure 100: First Responder Data Device Shipments over Commercial LTE Networks in Western Europe (Thousands): 2011 – 2020 ...... 199 Figure 101: First Responder Data Device Shipment Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Western Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 200 Figure 102: Public Safety Service Revenue over Commercial LTE Networks in Western Europe ($ Million): 2011 - 2020...... 200 Figure 103: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments in Western Europe: 2011 – 2020 ...... 201 Figure 104: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipment Revenue in Western Europe ($ Million): 2011 – 2020 ...... 201

Page 13

Figure 105: Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base in Western Europe: 2011 - 2020 ...... 202 Figure 106: LTE Proximity Service (ProSe) Examples ...... 209 Figure 107: Global Private (Public Safety) and Commercial LTE EPC/Mobile Core Revenues Compared ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 212 Figure 108: Global Private (Public Safety) LTE Backhaul Investments ($ Million): 2011 - 2020 ...... 213 Figure 109: TCO Comparison for Private LTE vs. Public-Private Partnership ...... 221 Figure 110: Global Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Shipments by Cell Type: 2011 - 2020 ...... 224 Figure 111: Global Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base by Cell Type: 2011 - 2020 ...... 225 Figure 112: Global Private (Public Safety) LTE Macrocell eNodeB Installed Base: 2011 - 2020 ...... 226 Figure 113: Global Private (Public Safety) LTE Small Cell eNodeB Installed Base: 2011 - 2020 ...... 227 Figure 114: Global Private (Public Safety) LTE Macrocell Relay eNodeB Installed Base: 2011 - 2020 ...... 228 Figure 115: Global Private (Public Safety) LTE eNodeB Installed Base: 2011 - 2020 ...... 229 Figure 116: Global Private (Public Safety) LTE Cell in a Box (CIAB) eNodeB Installed Base: 2011 - 2020 ...... 230 Figure 117: Global Private (Public Safety) LTE Airborne eNodeB Installed Base: 2011 - 2020 ...... 231

Page 14

1 Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Executive Summary

For more than 60 years first responders have relied on narrowband Land Mobile Radio (LMR) systems for mission critical voice communications. While many of these dedicated LMR systems generally support basic data applications such as short data messaging, first responders are often compelled to rely on commercial (cellular) mobile broadband networks to support data intensive applications such as bulk multimedia transfers in emergency situations.

However, commercial networks do not meet the availability and resilience requirements for public safety operations, where a single glitch in communications can result in a loss of human lives. Thus public safety agencies worldwide are echoing demands for the deployment of cost effective mobile broadband networks dedicated for public safety usage.

While a number of public safety agencies deployed a combination of private WiMAX and proprietary technology based mobile broadband networks between 2009 and 2011 to support data intensive applications such as video surveillance, it soon became apparent that a solution that is interoperable nationwide and across borders will be necessary enable cooperation among different public safety entities, and to achieve economies of scale.

Considering its thriving ecosystem, spectrum flexibility and performance metrics, public safety organizations worldwide recognize LTE as the de-facto standard for mobile broadband.

Page 15

With spectrum already allocated, public safety agencies in the Middle East, Asia Pacific and the U.S have already begun to operate private LTE networks. Driven by public safety demands, LTE products can now also operate in spectrum bands previously unthinkable, such as the 400 MHz band, which is widely available to public safety agencies worldwide. Moreover, demands for tactical and rapidly deployable broadband solutions have also led vendors to develop private LTE base station products in a variety of innovative form factors such as Cell in a Box (CIAB) or airborne cells.

SNS Research estimates the global spending on private LTE infrastructure including base stations (eNodeBs), mobile core (EPC) and backhaul will account for $2 Billion annually by the end of 2020. By the same time, the installed base of private public safety LTE base stations (eNode Bs) will reach nearly 155,000 globally, following a CAGR of nearly 60% between 2014 and 2020, and will serve nearly 4 Million private public safety LTE subscribers worldwide.

However it is important to note that the transition to LTE is one of the will be one of the most complex technical changes the public safety communications industry will ever witness and will present challenges in its own right, particularly in the context of global standardization. Furthermore spectrum, regulatory and budgetary issues in certain regions such as Europe will delay large scale private deployments.

Nonetheless, service prioritization partnerships with commercial LTE network carriers will create an ecosystem for operating public safety devices over commercial LTE networks during this transition period. We estimate that public safety LTE device shipments over commercial networks will account for nearly $7 Billion in annual revenue by the end of 2020.

Page 16

This report presents an in-depth assessment of the global public safety LTE market, besides considering the wider LMR and mobile broadband industries. In addition to covering the business case, challenges, spectrum allocation strategies, industry roadmap, deployment case studies, vendor products, strategies, standardization activities and application ecosystem for public safety LTE, the report also presents comprehensive forecasts for mobile broadband, LMR and public safety LTE subscriptions from 2011 till 2020. Also covered are public safety LTE service revenues as well as device and infrastructure (eNodeB base stations, EPC mobile core, backhaul) shipment and associated revenue forecasts.

The report comes with an associated XLS datasheet covering quantitative data from all figures presented within the report, as well as a list and associated details of 46 global private public safety LTE network deployments (as of Q1’2014).

Page 17

1.2 Key Findings

The report has the following key findings:

 Global spending on private LTE infrastructure including base stations (eNodeBs), mobile core (EPC) and backhaul will account for $2 Billion annually by the end of 2020  By the same time, the installed base of private public safety LTE base stations (eNode Bs) will reach nearly 155,000, following a CAGR of nearly 60% between 2014 and 2020, and will serve nearly 4 Million private public safety LTE subscribers worldwide  As much as 15% of all public safety LTE investments will be on military centric tactical deployments by 2020  Commercial carriers and public safety MVNOs will pocket nearly $7 Billion in public safety LTE service revenues by the end of 2020, following growth at a CAGR of 40% between 2014 and 2020  A large nationwide deployment such as FirstNet in the U.S. can save up to 40% in TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) over 10-years by opting for a public- private partnership rather than a private only investment  Almost all major LMR industry players are leveraging partnerships with established LTE infrastructure vendors such as Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent and NSN, to offer end-to-end LTE solutions

Page 18

1.3 Topics Covered

The report covers the following topics:

 Business case for public safety LTE and mobile broadband services  Key benefits of public safety LTE and mobile broadband  Challenges to public safety LTE adoption  Public safety agency, network operator and vendor commitments to public safety LTE  List of private public safety LTE deployments worldwide  Public safety LTE deployment case studies  The industry roadmap for the public safety mobile broadband in general and the LTE market in particular  Public safety LTE deployment and funding models  Spectrum allocation for public safety LTE  Public safety LTE applications ecosystem  Public safety LTE vendor assessment and strategies  Profiles of over 100 players in the public safety LTE ecosystem  Public safety LTE standardization  Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis of private and commercial public safety LTE deployments  Military and tactical LTE deployments  Public safety LTE base station form factor analysis  Exclusive interview transcripts from 7 industry players including Airbus, Motorola Solutions and General Dynamics  Strategic recommendations for vendors, system integrators, public safety agencies and wireless carriers  Market analysis and forecasts from 2011 till 2020

Page 19

1.4 Forecast Segmentation

Market forecasts and historical figures are provided for each of the following submarkets:

Public Safety LTE Base Station (eNodeB) Shipments, Revenue & Installed Base . Network Categories - Private LTE - Commercial LTE

. Factor Categories - Macrocell - Small Cell - Relay Node - Tactical Cell on Wheel (COW) - Tactical Cell in a Box (CIAB) - Airborne Cell

Public Safety LTE Device Shipments & Revenue . Network Categories - Private LTE - Commercial LTE

. Form Factor Categories - Handportable LMR Terminal - Mobile (In-Vehicle) LMR Terminal - Notebook PC - USB Dongle - Smartphone - PDA

Public Safety LTE Subscriptions & Service Revenue . Private LTE . Commercial LTE

Public Safety User Subscriptions over Private Mobile Broadband . Private LTE . Private WiMAX

Page 20

Additional Forecasts for Public Safety LTE Infrastructure . Public Safety LTE Mobile Core (EPC) Investments . Public Safety LTE Backhaul Investments

Public Safety User Subscriptions over Commercial Mobile Broadband . LTE . WiMAX . W-CDMA . HSPA . CDMA2000 . EV-DO

LMR Subscriptions . P25 . TETRA . Tetrapol . dPMR . NXND . PDT . Analog Radio

LMR Data Subscriptions . TETRA . TETRA TEDS . P25 Phase 1 . P25 Phase 2 . Tetropol

Regional Segmentation The following regional markets are also covered: . Asia Pacific . Eastern Europe . Latin & Central America . Middle East & Africa . North America . Western Europe

Page 21

1.5 Key Questions Answered

The report provides answers to the following key questions:

 Which countries will be the first to deploy and adopt LTE for public safety applications?  How many private public safety LTE base stations (eNodeBs) will ship in 2020, and how will these compare to the wider commercial LTE market?  How much will be invested on mobile core (EPC) and backhaul infrastructure to support private public safety LTE deployments?  How will the VoLTE ecosystem evolve and how will this impact PTT and voice services for public safety LTE?  When will standardized mission-critical voice communications and proximity services see large scale proliferation in the public safety LTE market?  How much revenue will the public safety LTE application ecosystem generate in 2020?  How will public safety LTE device shipments vary by form factor (handheld LMR terminals, mobile in-vehicle LMR modems, notebook PCs, USB dongles, smartphones, PDAs) overtime?  Is the 400 MHZ spectrum realistically feasible to support public safety LTE applications?  What are the prospects of tactical, rapidly deployable and airborne LTE solutions?  Does Huawei stand a chance in the public safety LTE market outside of Asia?

Page 22

 Which vendors and system integrators are the most successful in the public safety LTE market?  How many first responders rely on private and commercial mobile broadband networks for their daily tasks?  How will private and commercial public safety LTE subscriptions compare in 2020?  How will public safety LTE subscriptions compare to other mobile broadband technologies such as WiMAX and HSPA in 2020?  What opportunities exist for commercial wireless carriers and MVNOs in the public safety LTE market?

Page 23

1.6 Methodology

The contents of this report have been accumulated by combining information attained from a range of primary and secondary research sources. In addition to analyzing official corporate announcements, policy documents, media reports, and industry statements, SNS Research sought opinions from leading industry players within the public safety LTE and mobile broadband market to derive an unbiased, accurate and objective mix of market trends, forecasts and the future prospects of the public safety LTE and mobile broadband industry between 2011 and 2020.

Page 24

1.7 Target Audience

The report targets the following audience.

 Government/military/public safety agencies  Public safety communications vendors and integrators  Mobile network/wireless carriers and MVNOs  Mobile network Infrastructure, handset and sub-component vendors  Application developers  Investment firms

Page 25

1.8 Companies Mentioned

The following companies have been reviewed, discussed or mentioned in the report:

3GPP (Third ETELM Moscow Police Selex ES Generation Partnership Project) 7 layers AG Etherstack Motorola Mobility Sepura (Part of Lenovo) Abu Dhabi Police ETSI (European Motorola Solutions SETAR Telecommunications Standards Institute) ACMA (Australian Eventide Mutualink Shanghai Police Communications and Media Authority) Aculab EXACOM National Rail (UK) Siemens Adax Exalt Communications NATO (North Atlantic Signalion Treaty Organization) ADCOM911 (Adams Exelis NEC Simoco County Communication Center) Aeroflex Facebook Net4Mobility SiRRAN Airbus Defence and FEMA (Federal NetMotion Wireless SK Telecom Space (Formerly Emergency Cassidian) Management Agency) Airbus Group FCC (Federal Nevada Department SmithMicro Communications of Transportation Commission) Airspan Networks FirstNet (First New York Police Sonic Responder Network Department Communications Authority) Airwave French Armed Forces New Zealand Police Sony Alcatel-Lucent FREQUENTIS AG NextNav Space Data Amdocs General Dynamics NIST (National Star Solutions Institute of Standards and Technology) Anritsu General Dynamics C4 Nokia State of Louisiana Systems APCO (Association of German Armed Forces Nokia Solutions & State of Mississippi Public-Safety Networks (NSN) Communications Officials-International) Apple Germany Army Northrop Grumman State of New Jersey ARASKOM Google NPSTC (National State of New Mexico Public Safety Telecommunications Council) Aricent Group Harris nTerop State of Oklahoma

Page 26

Artevea Harris County NTIA (National Stop Noise Telecommunications and Information Administration) ASTRID HigherGround NVA (Networked SyTech Corporation Vehicle Association) ASTRO Solutions Hitachi NYCWiN (New York Tait City Wireless Network) AT&T Mobility Honeywell Oceus Networks TCCA (TETRA and Critical Communications Association) ATIS (Alliance for Hong Kong Police OMA (Open Mobile TCS Telecommunications Force Alliance) (TeleCommunication Industry Solutions) Systems) Atlas Telecom HQT Radio Oman Royal Office TD Industry Alliance（TDIA) Aviat Networks HTC Ontario Ministry of Techosonic Transportation Industries Avtec Huawei ONTHEGODEVICES Tecore Networks LLC Axell Wireless Hughes OpenSignal Telenet Axis Communications Hytera Panasonic Televate, LLC BAE Systems iCOM Panorama Antennas TELEX BASE (Belgium) ICOM America Phonak Teltronic BayWEB (Bay Area Imtradex Piciorgros (Funk- Telum Wireless Enhanced Electronic Piciorgros Broadband system) GmbH) BFDX Intel Pikewerks TETRAtab Corporation BlackBerry InterDigital Polaris Texas Instruments Bosch Security InterSec Police Federation of Thales Systems Australia Brazilian Army Intrado Portalify The Genesis Group Bridgewater IPWireless POTEVIO International TIA (Telecommunications Industry Association) Broadcom ITT Corporation PowerTrunk TITAN Communication Systems C4i ITU (International Proximus T-Mobile Telecommunications Union) CalAmp Japan Radio Company PSCR (Public Safety Toshiba Communications Research) Canadian Advanced JDI (JING DENG Putian Trident Technology Alliance INDUSTRIAL) Microsystems Catalyst Jordanian Armed Puxing Radio Turkish National Communications Forces Police Force

Page 27

CCTI (Catalyst JVC Kenwood Pyramid Twisted Pair Communications Communications Solutions Technologies Inc) China Mobile Kapsch CarrierCom Qatar Armed Forces U.K. Home Office Cimarron Kelrad Software Qatar MOI (Ministry U.S. Army Technologies of Interior) Cisco Kenwood Qualcomm U.S. Cellular CITIG (Canadian Kirisun RACOM U.S. Coast Guard Interoperability Technology Interest Group) City of Charlotte Kodiak Networks Radio IP U.S. Department of Commerce City of Fort Worth KPN Radisys U.S. Department of Defense City of Irving L-3 Communications RAVEN Electronics U.S. Department of Corporation Homeland Security City of New Orleans LA-RICS (Los Angeles Raytheon U.S. Navy Regional Interoperable Communications System) City of Pembroke Pine Las Vegas Reality Mobile U.S. Special Metropolitan Police Operations Department Command (SOCOM) Cobham Lemko RELM Wireless UIC (International Union of Railways) CommScope Lenovo Réseau Ferré de UNIMO Technology France (RFF) Covia Labs LG Electronics Rivada Networks University of Ottawa DAMM Cellular LG Uplus Rohde & Schwarz USPTO (U.S. Patent Systems A/S and Trademark Office) Daniels Electronics Ltd LiveViewGPS Rohill Utility DAPage Notifications Lockheed Martin Royal Canadian Verizon Wireless Mounted Police DataNet Software Mentura Group SAIC (Science Vidyo Applications International Corporation) Dubai Police MetroPCS Samsung Vodafone Dutch Police Miami Dade Police SANG (Saudi Arabian Voice Print Department National Guard) International EADS Miami-Dade County Sao Paulo Military West Australian Police Police Eastcom Ministry of Sapura Secured Zetron Communications, Technologies Libya EENA (European Ministry of Public SaskTel Zhengzhou Metro Emergency Number Security (MPS), China Association)

Page 28

EF Johnson Mobistar Saudi MOI (Ministry ZTE of Interior) Ericsson MODUCOM Savox Communications

Page 29

This material is subject to the laws of copyright and is restricted to registered license-holders who have entered into a Corporate, a Multi-User or a Single-User license agreement with SNS Research Ltd. It is an offence for the license-holder to make the material available to any unauthorized person, either via e-mail messaging or by placing it on a network.

All SNS Research reports & databases are intended to provide general information and strategic insights only, and they do not constitute, nor are they intended to constitute, investment advice. SNS Research and its employees disclaim all and any guarantees, undertakings and warranties, whether express or implied, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage whatsoever, and whether foreseeable or not, arising out of, or in connection with, any use of or reliance on any information, statements, opinions, estimates or forecasts contained in the reports.

Page 30

3 Chapter 3: Public Safety LTE and Mobile Broadband Industry Roadmap

In this chapter we review the industry roadmap and recent developments for the public safety LTE and mobile broadband market, including an assessment of current infrastructure investments and future commitments to public safety LTE.

3.1 Industry Roadmap

We expect the public safety LTE and the wider mobile broadband ecosystem to evolve considerably between 2014 and 2020.

2011 - 2013 2014 - 2016 2017 - 2020

Major Private LTE Deployment Private LTE Early Private Timelines Trials LTE Deployments Network Launches

Feature LMR for voice and non- Development work on Commercialization of broadband data proximity services and proximity services and Implementation applications resilience for public safety mission-critical PTT over Timelines LTE LTE (on-network and off- Commercial cellular network) networks (and LTE) for Mission critical PTT over broadband LTE standardization and Mission-critical voice and early trials data interoperability Non-mission critical PTT over LTE (Vendor proprietary) Roaming and asset Nationwide/cross-border leveraging between roaming and LMR/LTE voice private and commercial interoperability trials interoperability trials LTE

Emergence of tactical and military LTE solutions Mission Critical

Disparate Mission Critical Data Voice and Data Over

Networks Over Private LTE Private LTE

Figure 7: Public Safety LTE Industry Roadmap

Source: SNS Research

Page 62

3.5 Public Safety LTE Deployment & Trial Case Studies

Detailed below are case studies for some of the major public safety LTE deployments throughout the globe.

3.5.1 Zhengzhou Metro

Zhengzhou Metro is a rapid transit metro rail network which serves urban and suburban districts of Zhengzhou municipality in China, covering a population of over 8 Million citizens.

In Q4’2013, Huawei announced that it is supplying Zhengzhou Metro with a TD- LTE based solution which will deliver real-time video feeds from train-mounted video surveillance systems to control rooms, for public safety purposes. In addition, the solution will also enable connectivity for the Metro’s Passenger Information Services (PIS), and support the Communications-Based Train Control (CBTC) railway signaling system onboard trains.

Based on Huawei’s Enterprise LTE (eLTE) platform, the train-to-ground network is one of the first TDD deployments targeting the public safety market segment. The network operates in the 1.8 GHz frequency band.

Besides public safety video surveillance, CBTC and PIS, future plans are also underway to operationally run PTT voice services over the network. Huawei claims its eLTE PTT voice solution provides a group call setup time of less than 300 ms and a pre-emptive call setup time of less than 150 ms, to guarantee timely response for mission-critical scenarios.

Page 65

4 Chapter 4: Public Safety LTE and Mobile Broadband Applications Ecosystem

In this chapter we review the public safety LTE applications ecosystem, firstly by discussing the applications of public safety LTE and then by reviewing the future prospects of the market.

4.1 Mobile Video

LTE makes it possible for first responders to practically use mobile video surveillance applications, with minimum investment on infrastructure and devices, thanks to economies of scale.

Besides improving situational awareness in incident locations via live video streams through both body worn and vehicle mounted cameras, LTE has also opened a new market for High Definition (HD) CCTV, given its high bandwidth.

$5,000 Moible Video Survellience $4,000

$3,000

$2,000

$1,000

$0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Figure 8: Global Mobile Video Surveillance Market: 2011 – 2020 ($ Million)

Source: SNS Research

The market for mobile video surveillance is already expected to account for $1.4 Billion in global revenues and further expected to grow at a CAGR of nearly 20%

Page 69

5.57 Motorola Solutions Headquartered in Schaumburg, Illinois, Motorola Solutions is a provider of communications infrastructure, devices, system software and associated services for enterprise and government customers, worldwide. The company succeeded Motorola Inc., following the spinoff of the mobile phones division into Motorola Mobility in 2011.

Motorola Solutions’ LMR infrastructure and terminal products marketed under its Government business segment support a range of air interface standards including P25, TETRA and DMR. The company also offers a range of LTE user devices in multiple form factors (dongles, vehicular modems and handsets).

As a leading9 LMR vendor, Motorola Solutions is often seen as one of most dominant players in the public safety LTE market. Eyeing on Motorola Solutions’ dominant position, Ericsson partnered10 with Motorola Solutions to resell its RAN infrastructure solution in Q3’2010.

In Q4’2011, Motorola Solutions announced that it has formed an alliance with U.S. carrier Verizon Wireless to develop interoperability solutions that will enable first responders to connect to their services on both Motorola deployed private LTE networks and Verizon Wireless’ commercial nationwide LTE network.

Motorola Solutions made headlines when it was awarded an LTE network deployment contract by Harris County11, the first public safety LTE network deployment to go live in the U.S. market. Originally a 6 six site system valued at $7

9 Motorola Solutions maintains an LMR industry market share of 45% internationally and 81% in North America, as of Q4’2013. In 2013, the global LMR industry accounted for $12.5 Billion in revenue. 10 Under the partnership, Ericsson will provide LTE RAN infrastructure and combine that with Motorola Solutions' public safety optimized LTE core. Motorola also will provide devices, video security and command and control solutions for first responders. However, Ericsson also supplies certain EPC core elements for the offering including the MME, the Converged Packet Gateway (CPG) which combines the SGW and PGW, and the HSS. 11 To fund its network rollout Harris County utilized port security funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

Page 106

5.62 NSN (Nokia Solutions & Networks)

NSN (Nokia Solutions & Networks), formerly Nokia Siemens Networks, is a wireless infrastructure and data networking vendor headquartered in Espoo, Finland and a wholly owned subsidiary of the Nokia Corporation. It was previously a joint venture between Nokia of Finland and Siemens of Germany known as Nokia Siemens Networks. NSN has operations in around 150 countries. In Q3’2013, Nokia acquired 100% of the company, with a buy-out of Siemens AG.

An established player in the commercial LTE infrastructure market12, NSN is a

major proponent of public safety LTE networks and the first vendor to make

available a 3GPP band class 1413 eNodeB LTE.

NSN gained an early lead in the public safety LTE market when it was awarded a nationwide LTE network contract by the Qatar Ministry of Interior (MOI) in Q3’2011. The first phase of the network went live in Q2’2012 with 24 sites in Doha. Operating in the 800 MHz spectrum, the network is primarily being utilized for multimedia and video transmissions from incident locations to the Ministry’s command center.

NSN has seen partnerships with two prominent public safety system integrators. In Q3’2010 Harris announced that it is using NSN’s RAN infrastructure to develop its LTE solution. In Q2’2012, Thales announced a collaborative agreement with

12 NSN maintains a market share of 16% in the LTE infrastructure market. 13 Part of the 700 MHz LTE spectrum band allocated for FirstNet, the planned U.S. nationwide public safety LTE network.

Page 110

9.6 Proposals for Wholly Commercial Public Safety LTE Networks

A number of public safety agencies leverage commercial networks including LTE to fulfill their mobile broadband data requirements. It is widely anticipated that a vast majority of future public safety LTE deployments will also utilize commercial networks for mission-critical communications, driven by the associated cost savings.

In fact, some proposals wholly encourage the use of commercial LTE networks with added enhancements to serve the needs of the public safety community.

9.6.1 Case Study: UK Home Office

For example, in the U.K., public safety agencies pay up to $542 Million per annum to utilize the private Airwave TETRA network which has a coverage footprint throughout the U.K22. In addition, these agencies also spend an additional $150 Million for non-TETRA services over commercial networks.

With a desire to push costs down in the long term, the U.K. Home Office is engaging with local commercial carriers to address the possibility of enhancing their commercial LTE networks to meet mission-critical standards of coverage, security and availability. By 2020 when all Airwave service contracts would have expired, the Home Office is targeting to transition public safety users to an LTE network hosted on a commercial infrastructure (subject to requirements being met for mission-critical data and voice over LTE). SNS Research estimates that the move could save the U.K.’s public safety agencies as much as 45% in service costs annually.

22 Excluding Northern Ireland which operates its own TETRA network

Page 219

9.13.5 Tactical Cells in a Box (CIABs)

The requirement for tactical CIABs is primarily military driven. The CIAB form factor encompasses the antenna unit and eNodeB base station transceiver26 within a single box that can be rapidly deployed to provide a temporary LTE network in a military or first responder environment. A number of military trials27 have already tested the LTE CIAB form factor as a potential solution for providing voice and multimedia communications in combat zones.

10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Tactical Cell in a Box (CIAB) 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

Figure 116: Global Private (Public Safety) LTE Cell in a Box (CIAB) eNodeB Installed Base: 2011 - 2020

Source: SNS Research

SNS Research estimates that global shipments of tactical public safety LTE CIABs will represent a market worth $110 Million by the end of 2020, with the installed base of CIABs reaching nearly 9,000 by the same time.

26 In some cases a CIAB may also host the EPC mobile core. In this case the CIAB is referred to as “System in a Box” or SIAB. 27 The U.S. Army trialed the technology in Q2’2012. Germany and French armed forces have also tested LTE CIAB solutions in Q3’2013.

Page 230