Conservation: Thrive on Slings and Arrows

Correspondence

‘Tree of life’ took In China, better data are guiding root 150 years ago changes in conservation policies and on-the-ground actions. As thousands of scientists and For instance, huge long-term policymakers gather in Mexico data sets on species, ecosystems this month for the COP13 and human activities have summit on biodiversity (see www. enabled China to identify many cbd.int/cop2016), we should take priority conservation areas a moment to celebrate the earliest for protecting biodiversity ‘tree of life’ model of biodiversity. and maintaining ecological Charles Darwin published security (R. Wu et al. PLoS ONE the idea of a tree of life in On the 9, e103783; 2014). Intensive Origin of Species in 1859. Seven development is prohibited in (1834–1919)/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS HAECKEL ERNST years later, German zoologist these areas. Ernst Haeckel painstakingly drew Furthermore, a huge amount of up a much more comprehensive data from hundreds of scientists tree (pictured). This represented are used by China’s Ministry of Earth’s wealth of species in the Environmental Protection to context of evolution — a concept compile biodiversity ‘red lists’ he dubbed phylogeny (General (R. Wu Science 353, 657; 2016). Morphology of Organisms; 1866). And the systematic collection The root of the tree symbolizes of more and better data is a common primordial ancestor crucial to implementation of from which all other forms the government’s nationwide emerged. Haeckel developed ‘Red Lines’, which demarcate his tree over almost 1,000 pages, ecological conservation regions basing it on palaeontological, (see W. Sang and J. C. Axmacher embryological and systemic Nature 531, 305; 2016). data — a precursor to modern Ruidong Wu Yunnan University, biology’s phylogenetic trees. Kunming, Yunnan, China. He also coined the term [email protected] ecology (‘oecologie’), describing it as “the whole science of the relations of the organism to the Conservation: thrive environment including, in the on slings and arrows broad sense, all the ‘conditions of existence’”. Aaron Ellison rightly calls for Haeckel’s ideas were harbingers conservation scientists to engage for discoveries such as that by more actively in the political ecologist Santiago Soliveres and specializing in seabirds, fishes More scientists need to be process (Nature 538, 141; 2016). colleagues, who demonstrated and coral reefs shared their data engaged with society and make Unfortunately, those doing so that ecosystem multifunctionality to show that protection of an the case for conservation — can become targets for physical depends on high species richness area in the northwest Hawaiian with good, compelling data in and verbal threats, personal (Nature 536, 456–459; 2016). Islands was scientifically justified. hand. None of us wants our abuse, bullying and trolling on Uwe Hossfeld, Georgy S. Levit This evidence was required in publications to serve as pages in social media. Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, order to use the US Antiquities a wildlife obituary. As a conservation scientist, Germany; and ITMO University, Act to conserve the region. As Douglas J. McCauley, Francis I have experienced many such St Petersburg, Russia. a result, this became the world’s H. Joyce University of California, reactions at first hand. I have [email protected] largest no-take protected area Santa Barbara, USA. been embroiled for more than earlier this year. Jane Lubchenco Oregon State 30 years in the politics of native Contrary to Aaron Ellison’s University, Corvallis, Oregon, USA. forest logging, tree-plantation Conservation: smart implication, some ecologists have [email protected] expansion and culling of over- advocacy needs data been inspirational advocates abundant native and exotic for biodiversity. For example, animals. Resilience against such We agree that data alone will biologist E. O. Wilson campaigns Conservation: big attacks is underpinned by a drive not save species (A. M. Ellison to protect half the planet (Half- data boost in China to conduct and communicate Nature 538, 141; 2016). However, Earth; Norton, 2016) and ecologist high-quality science that using data in combination with Daniel Janzen helped to save huge I disagree with Aaron Ellison’s contributes to the conservation smart advocacy can make a tracts of dry forest in Costa Rica contention that biodiversity data and management of natural difference. (W. Allen Green Phoenix; Oxford only rarely drive conservation environments and biodiversity. For example, ecologists Univ. Press, 2003). decisions (Nature 538, 141; 2016). Communicating good data

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CORRESPONDENCE COMMENT and sound science to resource Cities: new fringes to United Nations’ Sustainable and Texas) have therefore issued a managers, policymakers act as safety nets Development Goals (SDGs) moratorium on fracking. and politicians is crucial for so pressing. Drawn up to end This means that the US energy- managing environmental Richard Forman and Jianguo Wu poverty (goal 1) and inequality policy debate needs a strong resources and for reinforcing suggest that sustainable city (goal 10) and to ensure prosperity, public-health and environmental political decisions. Scientists expansion should be restricted among other aims, the tenet of the presence. Before drilling starts, need more training and to selected urban peripheries SDGs is to ‘leave no one behind’. it is crucial to collect baseline mentoring in such skills — and (Nature 537, 608–611; 2016). In the United States, rising data to track any related increase in dealing with unwelcome Our investigations across five inequality and increasing poverty in morbidity and mortality. fallout from lobbyists and the Indian cities indicate that proper have created a groundswell of During the extraction process, public. planning of such peri-urban the disenfranchised and the environmental monitoring will David Lindenmayer Australian areas is crucial. dispossessed. Health care (goal 3) be needed to assess air pollution National University, Canberra, We define peri-urban areas and tertiary education (goal 4) are and its impact; and details of all Australia. as a 5-kilometre fringe of unaffordable for many. Decent chemicals used in the process [email protected] development beyond a city’s work (goal 8) and industry must be disclosed. Flowback jurisdiction. The India Research (goal 9) are under threat from fluids should be properly Initiative for Peri-Urban automation and globalization, disposed of to protect surface and Cities: factor in their Human–Animal–Environment leading to job losses, fuelling groundwater. These safeguards biological impact Interface (see http://perimilk. racism and driving up crime will help to counter potential phfi.org), funded by Canada’s (counter to goal 11). Extreme harm to human health and the Richard Forman and Jianguo Wu International Development weather events related to climate environment. identify several zones around Research Centre, is examining change are on the rise. Madelon Finkel Weill Cornell the world that might be suitable the effects of expansion around All of this has created a potent Medical College, New York, USA. for future urbanization (Nature Bangalore, Ludhiana, Guwahati, cocktail of discontent that has [email protected] 537, 608–611; 2016). We suggest Bhubaneshwar and Udaipur on manifested in anger towards the that the problem of supporting city dwellers. The populations establishment. Yet I fear for most, a growing population needs to and calculated decadal growth if not all, of the SDGs under a Trump: polls right, be considered from a biological rates of these cities vary from Trump presidency. For example, models wrong as well as an urban-planning 8.44 million and 49% (Bangalore) he has vowed to undermine perspective: ‘suitable’ is not to 0.45 million and 14% action against climate change Contrary to popular opinion, necessarily synonymous with (Udaipur). (goal 13) and could jeopardize the polls were not wrong in last ‘biologically sustainable’. Our findings indicate that poor the development of clean energy month’s US presidential election The authors propose that farming practices across all of (goal 7). He could put biodiversity (see also Nature 539, 339; 2016). urbanization should avoid these peri-urban areas could put at risk by making cuts to the The most recent polls in each biodiversity hotspots — regions food safety at risk, promote the Environmental Protection Agency state predicted the outcome for that are rich in endemic species spread of tuberculosis and other (goals 14 and 15), and he seems to individual states — but only when and undergoing rapid habitat zoonotic infections, and accelerate dismiss gender equality (goal 5). the 95% confidence interval lay loss. But this would exclude microbial resistance through David Griggs Monash outside the polling error. For highly biodiverse yet well- antibiotic overuse in livestock University, Clayton, Australia. those predictions with confidence conserved areas, which also need (our unpublished results). Public [email protected] intervals within the polling error, environmental protection. health is further threatened by the results were uncertain. Forman and Wu also call for minimal access to proper health Many pollsters used predictive global-scale planning. Until care and by inadequate waste- Trump: offset models to estimate probabilities. that is properly coordinated, management systems. fracking risks Permutations and models governments should not view Without strict oversight, are reliable, however, only natural ecosystems as offering sound planning and investment Unconventional gas extraction when projections capture the potential accommodation for in building infrastructure, peri- (‘fracking’) is likely to be central uncertainty of both the underlying the next billion people. Instead, urban belts stand to aggravate to the energy policy of president- data and the model itself. We they need to maximize land- many of the adverse effects of elect Donald Trump. I urge the cannot claim to make highly use potential while minimizing rapid urban growth. US Congress to tighten current certain predictions from highly its biological impact — for Pranab Chatterjee, Manish regulations and strike a balance uncertain data. In this case, some example, by improving cities Kakkar Public Health Foundation between energy independence models claimed a certainty of 99% and the surrounding lands that of India, Gurgaon, India. and the safeguarding of public even though 31% of the electoral- feed them, and by promoting Tamoghna Biswas Kolkata health and the environment college vote was too close to call. biodiversity research and Medical College, Kolkata, India. (see also J. C. S. Long Nature We need to improve the way protection in conserved areas. [email protected] 539, 495; 2016). we explain uncertainty: uncertain We probably do not need more The shale-gas revolution has data are not wrong, only “suitable” land: we need to make given the United States a security uncertain. And we must become sustainable and efficient use of Trump: voters show blanket for energy, at a cost to better consumers of models. the land we already live on. importance of SDGs the environment and to health The polls were right. The Alexandre Antonelli University (see M. L. Finkel and J. Hays models were wrong. In this era of of Gothenburg and Gothenburg Many of the factors that J. Epidemiol. Community Health big data, we need to emphasize Botanical Garden, Sweden. contributed to Donald 70, 221–222; 2016). Several the distinction. Allison Perrigo Forest Cat Trump’s win in the 2016 US European countries and US states Brandon Steelman Clear Gene, Editing, Uppsala, Sweden. presidential election are those (including New York, Maryland Moss Beach, California, USA. [email protected] that make achievement of the and parts of California, Colorado [email protected]