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Report: the New Nuclear Arms Race
The New Nuclear Arms Race The Outlook for Avoiding Catastrophe August 2020 By Akshai Vikram Akshai Vikram is the Roger L. Hale Fellow at Ploughshares Fund, where he focuses on U.S. nuclear policy. A native of Louisville, Kentucky, Akshai previously worked as an opposition researcher for the Democratic National Committee and a campaign staffer for the Kentucky Democratic Party. He has written on U.S. nuclear policy and U.S.-Iran relations for outlets such as Inkstick Media, The National Interest, Defense One, and the Quincy Institute’s Responsible Statecraft. Akshai holds an M.A. in International Economics and American Foreign Policy from the Johns Hopkins University SAIS as well as a B.A. in International Studies and Political Science from Johns Hopkins Baltimore. On a good day, he speaks Spanish, French, and Persian proficiently. Acknowledgements This report was made possible by the strong support I received from the entire Ploughshares Fund network throughout my fellowship. Ploughshares Fund alumni Will Saetren, Geoff Wilson, and Catherine Killough were extremely kind in offering early advice on the report. From the Washington, D.C. office, Mary Kaszynski and Zack Brown offered many helpful edits and suggestions, while Joe Cirincione, Michelle Dover, and John Carl Baker provided much- needed encouragement and support throughout the process. From the San Francisco office, Will Lowry, Derek Zender, and Delfin Vigil were The New Nuclear Arms Race instrumental in finalizing this report. I would like to thank each and every one of them for their help. I would especially like to thank Tom Collina. Tom reviewed numerous drafts of this report, never The Outlook for Avoiding running out of patience or constructive advice. -
The Secret History of Australia's Nuclear Ambitions
Jim Walsh SURPRISE DOWN UNDER: THE SECRET HISTORY OF AUSTRALIAS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS by Jim Walsh Jim Walsh is a visiting scholar at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He is also a Ph.D. candidate in the Political Science program at MIT, where he is completing a dissertation analyzing comparative nuclear decisionmaking in Australia, the Middle East, and Europe. ustralia is widely considered tactical nuclear weapons. In 1961, of state behavior and the kinds of Ato be a world leader in ef- Australia proposed a secret agree- policies that are most likely to retard forts to halt and reverse the ment for the transfer of British the spread of nuclear weapons? 1 spread of nuclear weapons. The nuclear weapons, and, throughout This article attempts to answer Australian government created the the 1960s, Australia took actions in- some of these questions by examin- Canberra Commission, which called tended to keep its nuclear options ing two phases in Australian nuclear for the progressive abolition of open. It was not until 1973, when history: 1) the attempted procure- nuclear weapons. It led the fight at Australia ratified the NPT, that the ment phase (1956-1963); and 2) the the U.N. General Assembly to save country finally renounced the acqui- indigenous capability phase (1964- the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty sition of nuclear weapons. 1972). The historical reconstruction (CTBT), and the year before, played Over the course of four decades, of these events is made possible, in a major role in efforts to extend the Australia has gone from a country part, by newly released materials Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of that once sought nuclear weapons to from the Australian National Archive Nuclear Weapons (NPT) indefi- one that now supports their abolition. -
Israeli Nuclear Weapons Capability
Israeli nuclear weapons capability 【Overview】 Israel, along with India and Pakistan, continues to possess nuclear weapons outside the NPT regime. Production of its nuclear arsenal likely began in the 1960s, Israel maintains its ‘ambiguity policy’, neither confirming nor denying that it has nuclear weapons. Only limited information is available about Israel's nuclear capability but it is believed to possess two types of ground-launched ballistic missiles and airborne bombs. Also, Israeli submarines operating in the high seas (see footnote 2) may carry cruise missiles. Here, we estimate such SLCMs to number 10, thereby pegging Israel's arsenal at 90 warheads as of April 2020. It is thought that Israel, as India and Pakistan do, separately maintain their nuclear warheads and ground-launched missiles. As of late 2014, Israel has around 300 kg of high enriched uranium (HEU) and approximately 900 kg of weapons- grade plutonium (International Panel on Fissile Material 2018). To manufacture a nuclear bomb, depending on technical levels and other factors, it requires 12-18kg of HEU or 4-6kg of plutonium. Accordingly, Israel possesses nuclear fissile material equivalent to 167-250 warheads. With higher levels of technical sophistication, however, it is possible to obtain a bomb from 2-4kg plutonium, in which case the same Israeli stockpile would suggest an arsenal of 225-450 warheads (Union of Concerned Scientists 2009). Kristensen and Norris suggest that Israel has not converted all its fissile material into nuclear warheads, and estimate the number of warheads in conjunction with the intelligence on their nuclear weapons delivery capabilities (Kristensen, Hans M. -
“Near-Peer Advancements in Space and Nuclear Weapons”
Prepared statement by: Tim Morrison Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Strategic Forces February 23, 2021 “Near-Peer Advancements in Space and Nuclear Weapons” Chairman Cooper, Ranking Member Turner, Members of the Subcommittee, thank you for the invitation to testify today and for holding a public hearing on this most important topic. I’m pleased to be part of such a distinguished panel. There is little more important to our national security, indeed, our nation’s existence, than the threat posed by foreign nuclear weapons development. There is an arms race underway; today, the U.S. is sitting on the sidelines. We have long known about Russia’s reliance on its nuclear forces. Russia is a failing state. A declining power. To paraphrase former Senator John McCain, “Russia is a mafia-run gas station with nuclear weapons.” Its nuclear forces are just another example of Putin’s need to cheaply create relevance for a formerly great power he is steering into the ground at an increasing rate of speed. More recently, the activities of the Chinese Communist Party, including with respect to its nuclear forces, have become increasingly alarming to the U.S. national security apparatus. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) had been growing its nuclear forces behind what the then-Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control, Ambassador Marshall Billingslea, called the “Great Wall of Secrecy.”i The prior administration, in which I served, made a concerted effort to reveal what it knew about the Chinese Communist Party’s plans to better inform Congress, the American people, and America’s allies. -
Clarence Larson: Only ORNL Director to Be AEC Commissioner (As Published in the Oak Ridger’S Historically Speaking Column on September 19, 2016)
Clarence Larson: only ORNL director to be AEC commissioner (As published in The Oak Ridger’s Historically Speaking column on September 19, 2016) Carolyn Krause brings us insights into Clarence Larson, a capable and key contractor leader of the early Union Carbide days in Oak Ridge. … The only director and employee of Oak Ridge National Laboratory to become a commissioner on the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) was Clarence Edward Larson. After serving as director of the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant starting in 1948, he moved to ORNL in 1950 when he was appointed director there by the AEC operating contractor, Carbide and Carbon Chemical Division, Union Carbide Corporation, later to become the Union Carbide Nuclear Division. He remained ORNL director until 1955. Larson replaced Nelson “Bunny” Rucker as ORNL director. As associate director Alvin Weinberg “also decided that Bunny Rucker really should be replaced by a person with more technical understanding of nuclear energy, a view with which Clark Center (Union Carbide Nuclear Division president) concurred. As a result, Clark appointed Clarence Larson director of ORNL, and I became research director.” (Source: Weinberg’s “The First Nuclear Era.”) A native of Minnesota who completed undergraduate work in chemistry and chemical engineering at the University of Minnesota, he received his Ph.D. degree in biochemistry in 1937 from the University of California at Berkeley, where he studied blood clotting. While a graduate student, he experimented with cyclotron-produced isotopes obtained from cyclotron inventor Ernest O. Lawrence. In 1937 Larson joined the College of the Pacific’s chemistry department and later became its chairman. -
A. Spirit [Cover] F09 11.25
THE TEXAS A&M FOUNDATION MAGAZINE | FALL 2009 PRESIDENT’S LETTER Foundation Steers Steady Course In September the Texas A&M Foundation celebrated its 56th birthday and 10th anniversary in the Jon L. Hagler Center. It was a delight to see more than 400 of you—our former students and friends—at our pregame celebration Sept. 5. Much has changed since we moved into our new building in 1999. Many of you recall when the corner of Houston and what used to be “Jersey” Street was the University Police station. A few of you might remember even further back, when this spot was the location of an old county project house built in the late 1930s. There is a certain elegant symbolism in the fact that the campus home to major-gift philanthropy—the Hagler Center—sits on the site of a fundamental act of charity: folks back home helping poor kids go to college. Ten years ago the Foundation employed 72 people and managed assets of $537.9 million. Today we have 95 on our staff and oversee $1.2 billion in assets for Texas A&M. Back then we didn’t have an Internet and fans were just good Ags at Kyle Field, not people following our Facebook page. I’m privileged to say that my position and title have not changed since 1993. Bob Rutledge, my predecessor, directed the Foundation for 12 years before me. I hope you agree that this stable leadership, along with your generous gifts, has contributed to our success. Leadership change at A&M has been much in the news. -
U.S. Nuclear Policies for a Safer World
NTI Paper JUNE 2021 U.S. Nuclear Policies for a Safer World SUMMARY NTI Co-Chairs Ernest J. Moniz and Sam Nunn call on the United States to resume a position of global leadership to reduce the risks posed by nuclear weapons. Their recommendations—which are further elaborated and reinforced in seven related policy papers by NTI experts and former officials—include proposals for changes to U.S. nuclear policy and posture, reengagement with Russia on a range of strategic stability and arms control issues, sustained dialogue and nuclear risk reduction measures with China, and recommitment to multilateral efforts to strengthen the global nonproliferation regime. Introduction by Ernest J. Moniz and Sam Nunn Papers by Steve Andreasen, James McKeon, Mark Melamed, and Lynn Rusten Contents Strengthening the Foundation for Nuclear Stability .....................................1 Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Use by Increasing Leadership Decision Time ................4 Declaratory Policy: Advancing Sole Purpose ...........................................7 Next Steps on Strategic Stability and Arms Control With Russia ........................ 13 Reducing U.S. and Russian Non-Strategic and Forward-Deployed Nuclear Weapons ...... 22 The Offense-Defense Relationship .................................................. 29 Engaging China to Reduce Nuclear Risks ............................................ 35 Multilateral Steps to Reduce Nuclear Risks .......................................... 47 About the Authors .............................................................. -
From the Inside Looking In: Tradition and Dviersity At
FROM THE INSIDE LOOKING IN: TRADITION AND DVIERSITY AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY A Thesis by EMILY LYNN CAULFIELD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS May 2008 Major Subject: Communication FROM THE INSIDE LOOKING IN: TRADITION AND DIVERSITY AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY A Thesis by EMILY LYNN CAULFIELD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS Approved by: Chair of Committee, Eric Rothenbuhler Committee Members, Leroy Dorsey Robert Mackin Head of Department, Richard Street May 2008 Major Subject: Communication iii ABSTRACT From the Inside Looking In: Tradition and Diversity at Texas A&M University. (May 2008) Emily Lynn Caulfield, B.A., Texas A&M University Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Eric Rothenbuhler This study explores how the unique history, culture, and traditions of Texas A&M University shape students’ perceptions and understandings of diversity and diversity programs. I examine these issues through participant observation of Texas A&M’s football traditions and in-depth, semi-structured interviews with members of the student body. In response to increased media scrutiny, public pressure, and scholastic competition, the current administration has embraced a number of aggressive initiatives to increase diversity among members of the student body. The collision between decades of tradition and the administration’s vision for the future has given rise to tension between members of the student body and the administration, which I argue is due, at least in part, to the culture that began developing at Texas A&M during the middle of the twentieth century as students began reacting to the prospect of change. -
How Much Does the UK Spend on Nuclear Weapons?
NOVEMBER 2018 How much does the UK spend on nuclear weapons? Ian Davis © The British American Security Information Council (BASIC), 2018 All images are available for reuse under the MOD (Consent License) and the OGL (Open Government License) or are The British American Security Creative Commons unless otherwise stated. Information Council (BASIC) 17 Oval Way The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility London of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of BASIC. SE11 5RR All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be Charity Registration No. 1001081 reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, T: +44 (0) 20 3752 5662 electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or www.basicint.org any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Please direct all enquiries to the publishers. The Author BASIC Dr. Ian Davis is Executive Editor of the SIPRI The British American Security Information Council Yearbook and an experienced human security and (BASIC) is an independent think tank and registered arms control consultant, writer and founding charity based in Whitehall, London, promoting director of NATO Watch (www.natowatch.org). He innovative ideas and international dialogue on received both his Ph.D. and B.A. in Peace Studies nuclear disarmament, arms control, and from the University of Bradford. He was formerly nonproliferation. Since 1987, we’ve been at the Director of Publications at the Stockholm forefront of global efforts to build trust and International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) cooperation on some of the world’s most (2014-2016), a freelance consultant (2008-2014), progressive global peace and security initiatives, Executive Director of BASIC (2001-2007) and advising governments in the United States, United Programme Manager at Saferworld (1998-2001). -
NUCLEAR ARMS the Current Situation
61 EDUCATIONAL PERSPECTIVES NUCLEAR ARMS The Current Situation Herbert Scoville, Jr. posture of "launch-on-warning" or everyone's security depend on The United States and the Soviet "launch-under-attack," which means whether or not Soviet computers Union are adding daily to their that when one side's computers work correctly. However, that is the nuclear weapons stockpiles. detect a launch from the other side, kind of position that we are pushing it automatically launches its missiles the world into today- a posture in Looking objectively at the state of so it won't be destroyed. This may which computers may decide the fate the nuclear confrontation and the seem to be a sure way of protecting of the world, rather than, at least, risks of a nuclear war breaking out, the missiles, but, in effect, this leaving it to mankind with all its the prospects are gloomy. Arms strategy has to short-circuit virtually foibles. control negotiations are at a the whole command and control The Arms Race: I ts Beginnings standstill. The United States and the structure and to rely solely on Soviet Union are adding daily to computers. First, let us look at a little history to their nuclear weapons stockpiles. The United States' procurement of see how we got ourselves into this The numbers are now so high that the MX missile may lead the Soviets position. Briefly, one should they have no real meaning regarding to adopt this dangerous posture. remember that, in 1945, we had a the damage they can do; a fraction of President Reagan said recently that monopoly on nuclear weapons-and the total could create such he wants the MX as quickly as we used two of them. -
Verification and Security of a Nuclear Weapons Convention
Verification and security in a nuclear-weapon-free world: elements and framework of a Nuclear Weapons Convention Jürgen Scheffran At the 2010 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in New York a number of states and non-governmental organizations called for a Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC), which would implement the comprehensive goal of a world without nuclear weapons.1 The final document of the conference noted UN Secretary- General Ban Ki-moon’s five-point proposal for nuclear disarmament of 24 October 2008, “which proposes, inter alia, consideration of negotiations on a nuclear weapons convention or agreement on a framework of separate mutually reinforcing instruments, backed by a strong system of verification”.2 Many states and most anti-nuclear civil society groups now see negotiation of an NWC in the near future as politically feasible and indeed necessary if we are to move beyond the current disarmament stalemate.3 The concept of the NWC goes back to the mid-1990s and was promoted by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) at the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference.4 In April 1997, Costa Rica submitted a Model Nuclear Weapons Convention, drawn up by an international consortium of lawyers, scientists and disarmament experts, to the United Nations.5 An extended and updated version of the Model NWC was presented at the 2007 Preparatory Committee for the 2010 NPT Review Conference as part of the launch of the International Campaign for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).6 Ban Ki-moon -
Memorial Tributes: Volume 9
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS This PDF is available at http://nap.edu/10094 SHARE Memorial Tributes: Volume 9 DETAILS 326 pages | 6 x 9 | HARDBACK ISBN 978-0-309-07411-7 | DOI 10.17226/10094 CONTRIBUTORS GET THIS BOOK National Academy of Engineering FIND RELATED TITLES Visit the National Academies Press at NAP.edu and login or register to get: – Access to free PDF downloads of thousands of scientific reports – 10% off the price of print titles – Email or social media notifications of new titles related to your interests – Special offers and discounts Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the National Academies Press. (Request Permission) Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Memorial Tributes: Volume 9 i Memorial Tributes NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Memorial Tributes: Volume 9 ii Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Memorial Tributes: Volume 9 iii NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Memorial Tributes Volume 9 NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 2001 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Memorial Tributes: Volume 9 iv International Standard Book Number 0–309–07411–8 International Standard Serial Number 1075–8844 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 20–1088636 Additional copies of this publication are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, D.C. 20055 800– 624–6242 or 202–334–3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) B-467 Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences.