Key Demographic Trends | December 2019 Version 14 Year 6 EAST RENFREWSHIRE’S POPULATION – WHAT to EXPECT
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Key demographic trends | December 2019 Version 14 Year 6 EAST RENFREWSHIRE’S POPULATION – WHAT TO EXPECT East Renfrewshire’s population is The two age groups that will grow the most East Renfrewshire currently has the highest growing faster average household size in Scotland, but than previously this is projected to shrink as more people projected and live alone faster than Scotland as a whole East Children and Older people Renfrewshire young people aged 85+ is and will 2.42 aged 0-15 years 2.27 continue to be an attractive place to live The number of people living in East Renfrewshire is projected to increase by 7.6% by the year 2026 More houses Demand will (this is higher than previous projection of 5.7% are being built increase for East Renfrewshire now has the highest female and higher than the Scottish rate of growth of for three services life expectancy at birth in Scotland, and the 3.2%) reasons second highest male life expectancy More families are moving in For older people, as well as general public 81.1 services (such as health and care, leisure and Fewer people environmental services) live in the average house 7.6% More places will be 83.7 needed in early years, The increase in East People primary and secondary Renfrewshire will be as are living education establishments a result of more people longer moving into the area IF EAST RENFREWSHIRE HAD 100 PEOPLE Gender Age Country of birth Household size 4 89 32 6 29 1 52 48 20 60 20 1 5 Children and Adults 65 and young people older 24 9 Scotland 89 England 5 Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic Tenure of Ireland 1 Other EU countries 1 Other countries 4 Travelling to work Faith Rent council 8 Rent social landlord 3 60 Car 69 Rent privately 7 Own 82 Health At home 10 26 Where people live 6 Train 3 3 9 2 Bus 7 Christians Non-religious Did not say Muslims Jewish Other On foot 4 28 29 17 25 1 Detached Semi Terrace Flat Other ? house detached Other 1 ???? * Figures rounded house EAST RENFREWSHIRE FAST FACTS Population Early learning Primary 2011 2018 3,374 90,810 95,170 17 23 New homes 77%full 90% full Rising trend planned up to 2029 2,268 All pupils 1,240 9,295 P1 pupils All pupils (incl. partnership 2041 providers) 110,044 Secondary ASN School Rising trend 10% Economically active 70% Economically inactive 30% 7 1 Where people live 87% full Levern 7,756 Valley 132 26% All pupils Eastwood 854 520 909 74% area THORNLIEBANK How money is spent Deaths Births BARRHEAD GIFFNOCK on our key priorities 2018 2018 Extra moving into 12% 8% NEILSTON East Renfrewshire 12% UPLAWMOOR Life expectancy 2018 NEWTON MEARNS 14% 1911 2013-15 2015-17 54% EAGLESHAM data zones HOLLY 8 81 JACK 77 ISLA Early years 53 51 81 84 JAMES out of 122 in the most SOPHIE Life, learning and work deprived 20% of Scotland. Economy and environment Safer supported communities Scotland Scotland East Renfrewshire Top baby names 6,127 live here. Older people Contents Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 1.0 Introduction 2.0 Executive Summary 3.0 Population- in more detail 3.1 Population by Community 3.2 Population by age 3.3 Age by Community 3.4 Births and Deaths in East Renfrewshire 4.0 Households 4.1 Household size and composition 4.2 Households by community 4.3 Households by composition 5.0 Religion 6.0 Ethnicity 7.0 Migration 8.0 Under 16 age group 8.1 Population changes 8.2 Early learning and childcare provision 8.3 Primary school provision 8.4 Secondary school provision 8.5 Vulnerable children 9.0 Older people 9.1 Population changes 9.2 Home care and care homes 10.0 Additional support needs, health conditions and disabilities 9.3 Long-term health problem or disability 9.4 Children and young people with additional support needs 9.5 Unpaid care 11.0 Deprivation 11.1 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 11.2 Working age benefits 11.3 Disability living allowance (personal independence payments) 11.1 Children in low income households 12.0 Housing supply 12.1 Local Development Plan 12.2 New housing completions 12.3 Meeting housing supply targets 12.4 Housing tenure 12.5 Housing sales 13.0 Travel and Work 14.0 Did you know? 15.0 Main sources of information 1.0 | Introduction East Renfrewshire Council is a modern ambitious council creating a fairer future with all - and the future is exactly what this important document deals with. Like the rest of Scotland, East Renfrewshire faces great changes in its population in the coming years. We expect our population to increase, to have more elderly residents, to see a decline in death rates and to have an increase in the number of households, as more people live alone. East Renfrewshire is already one of the most ethnically and culturally diverse communities in the country and we expect this trend to continue. These expected significant changes will be highly pertinent to decisions we make on future service provision, affecting education, housing, care and a host of vital services the council and other agencies provides for the people of East Renfrewshire. The statistics and trends presented in this report are mainly based on Scotland’s Census 2011 information, National Records of Scotland mid- year estimates and supplemented by our own information on the demand for our services over recent years. It is important to note however that these projections, while likely, are not set in stone. They are based on current and predicted future trends and it is possible that those trends may change. Even the census data can never be wholly accurate and some small inconsistencies may occur when comparing different data sets. This information allows us to better plan for the future and will inform key decisions on policy. The council regularly updates and refines the information in this report as more up-to-date information becomes available. I hope you find this report interesting and that it gives some understanding of how and why East Renfrewshire Council makes some of the decisions that it does, such as on our budgets and the Local Development Plan. Lorraine Councillor Tony Buchanan McMillan Chief Executive Leader 1 ,•' ·· 2 2.0| Ex ecutive Summary Planning for the future of East Renfrewshire with residents at the heart of our changes East Renfrewshire, as with Scotland as a whole, is facing profound changes to its demography. The information, trends and statistics in this report include indications of the potential for some significant changes in the future structure of East Renfrewshire’s population, particularly in terms of its age profile and living arrangements, which will be highly crucial to decisions on future service provision and policy making. Current and likely future demographic trends in East Renfrewshire include: • Since 2011, population has grown by 4.8 per cent to 95, 170 in 2018. Seventy five per cent live in the Eastwood area (Busby, Clarkston and Williamwood, Eaglesham and Waterfoot, Giffnock, Netherlee and Stamperland, Newton Mearns and Thornliebank) and 25 per cent live in the Levern Valley (Barrhead, Neilston and Uplawmoor). • The growth of the population, between 2011 and 2018, has been concentrated in Newton Mearns (13.2 per cent), Uplawmoor (11.0 per cent), Eaglesham and Waterfoot (9.0 per cent), Clarkston and Williamwood (3.6 per cent), Busby (3.3 per cent), Giffnock (1.1 per cent), Barrhead (0.6 per cent), Thornliebank (0.6 per cent) and Netherlee and Stamperland (0.4 per cent). Population declined in Neilston (-3.3 per cent). • The number of children and young people increased by 7.8 per cent from 2011 to 2018. The proportion of 5 to 14 year olds as a percentage of the total East Renfrewshire population is the highest across Scotland’s 32 local authority areas. • Declining death rates in all ages has led to higher life expectancies for both men (80.5) and women (83.7). This is the second-highest life expectancy in Scotland for males and the highest life expectancy in Scotland for females. • Increasing ageing population with a 42 per cent increase in the number of residents aged 85 and over during the last decade. By 2041, almost one quarter of East Renfrewshire is projected to be aged 65 or over, in line with Scottish projections. • Although East Renfrewshire still has the highest average household size across Scotland’s local authorities at 2.42 people, this is projected to reduce due to increasing trends with an ageing population and more people living alone. • Single person households increased over the past 13 years and now account for 32 per cent of the East Renfrewshire area. Nationally, single person households are now the most common household type. 3 • From 2011 to 2018, the number of households has risen by 4.8 per cent to 39, 108. • Joint second highest in Scotland for percentage who are married or same sex couples with the second lowest proportion of divorcees. • One of the most ethnically and cultu rally diverse areas in Scotland with significant Muslim and Jewish communities. • Increasing pattern of more people entering East Renfrewshire than leaving (520 more moving in than leaving in 2017-18). People aged 30-45 account for the largest proportion of entrants, mostly coming from Glasgow. • Increasing demand for private sector rental market in Eastwood area and the number of private sector rentals has significantly increased over past 10 years. Meanwhile the highest proportion of people who own their house by mortgage, with house prices in the Eastwood area remaining amongst the most expensive in Scotland.