Key demographic trends | December 2019 Version 14 Year 6 EAST ’S POPULATION – WHAT TO EXPECT

East Renfrewshire’s population is The two age groups that will grow the most currently has the highest growing faster average household size in , but than previously this is projected to shrink as more people projected and live alone faster than Scotland as a whole East Children and Older people Renfrewshire young people aged 85+ is and will 2.42 aged 0-15 years 2.27 continue to be an attractive place to live

The number of people living in East Renfrewshire is projected to increase by 7.6% by the year 2026 More houses Demand will (this is higher than previous projection of 5.7% are being built increase for East Renfrewshire now has the highest female and higher than the Scottish rate of growth of for three services life expectancy at birth in Scotland, and the 3.2%) reasons second highest male life expectancy

More families are moving in For older people, as well as general public 81.1 services (such as health and care, leisure and Fewer people environmental services) live in the average house

7.6% More places will be 83.7 needed in early years, The increase in East People primary and secondary Renfrewshire will be as are living education establishments a result of more people longer moving into the area IF EAST RENFREWSHIRE HAD 100 PEOPLE

Gender Age Country of birth Household size

4 89 32 6 29 1 52 48 20 60 20 1 5 Children and Adults 65 and young people older 24 9

Scotland 89 England 5 Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic Tenure of Ireland 1 Other EU countries 1 Other countries 4

Travelling to work Faith Rent council 8 Rent social landlord 3 60 Car 69 Rent privately 7 Own 82

Health At home 10 26 Where people live 6 Train 3 3 9 2 Bus 7 Christians Non-religious Did not say Muslims Jewish Other On foot 4 28 29 17 25 1 Detached Semi Terrace Flat Other ? house detached Other 1 ???? * Figures rounded house EAST RENFREWSHIRE FAST FACTS

Population Early learning Primary 2011 2018 3,374 90,810 95,170 17 23 New homes 77%full 90% full Rising trend planned up to 2029 2,268 All pupils 1,240 9,295 P1 pupils All pupils (incl. partnership 2041 providers) 110,044 Secondary ASN School Rising trend 10% Economically active 70% Economically inactive 30% 7 1 Where people live 87% full Levern 7,756 Valley 132 26% All pupils Eastwood 854 520 909 74% area How money is spent Deaths Births on our key priorities 2018 2018 Extra moving into 12% 8% East Renfrewshire 12% Life expectancy 2018 14% 1911 2013-15 2015-17 54%

EAGLESHAM data zones HOLLY 8 81 JACK 77 ISLA Early years 53 51 81 84 JAMES out of 122 in the most SOPHIE Life, learning and work deprived 20% of Scotland. Economy and environment Safer supported communities Scotland Scotland East Renfrewshire Top baby names 6,127 live here. Older people Contents

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

1.0 Introduction

2.0 Executive Summary 3.0 Population- in more detail

3.1 Population by Community 3.2 Population by age 3.3 Age by Community 3.4 Births and Deaths in East Renfrewshire 4.0 Households 4.1 Household size and composition 4.2 Households by community 4.3 Households by composition 5.0 Religion 6.0 Ethnicity 7.0 Migration

8.0 Under 16 age group 8.1 Population changes 8.2 Early learning and childcare provision 8.3 Primary school provision 8.4 provision 8.5 Vulnerable children

9.0 Older people 9.1 Population changes 9.2 Home care and care homes 10.0 Additional support needs, health conditions and disabilities 9.3 Long-term health problem or disability 9.4 Children and young people with additional support needs 9.5 Unpaid care 11.0 Deprivation 11.1 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 11.2 Working age benefits 11.3 Disability living allowance (personal independence payments) 11.1 Children in low income households 12.0 Housing supply 12.1 Local Development Plan 12.2 New housing completions 12.3 Meeting housing supply targets 12.4 Housing tenure 12.5 Housing sales

13.0 Travel and Work

14.0 Did you know?

15.0 Main sources of information 1.0 | Introduction

East Renfrewshire Council is a modern ambitious council creating a fairer future with all - and the future is exactly what this important document deals with.

Like the rest of Scotland, East Renfrewshire faces great changes in its population in the coming years. We expect our population to increase, to have more elderly residents, to see a decline in death rates and to have an increase in the number of households, as more people live alone. East Renfrewshire is already one of the most ethnically and culturally diverse communities in the country and we expect this trend to continue.

These expected significant changes will be highly pertinent to decisions we make on future service provision, affecting education, housing, care and a host of vital services the council and other agencies provides for the people of East Renfrewshire.

The statistics and trends presented in this report are mainly based on Scotland’s Census 2011 information, National Records of Scotland mid- year estimates and supplemented by our own information on the demand for our services over recent years.

It is important to note however that these projections, while likely, are not set in stone. They are based on current and predicted future trends and it is possible that those trends may change. Even the census data can never be wholly accurate and some small inconsistencies may occur when comparing different data sets.

This information allows us to better plan for the future and will inform key decisions on policy. The council regularly updates and refines the information in this report as more up-to-date information becomes available. I hope you find this report interesting and that it gives some understanding of how and why East Renfrewshire Council makes some of the decisions that it does, such as on our budgets and the Local Development Plan.

Lorraine Councillor Tony Buchanan McMillan Chief Executive Leader

1 ,•' ··

2 2.0| Ex ecutive Summary

Planning for the future of East Renfrewshire with residents at the heart of our changes

East Renfrewshire, as with Scotland as a whole, is facing profound changes to its demography. The information, trends and statistics in this report include indications of the potential for some significant changes in the future structure of East Renfrewshire’s population, particularly in terms of its age profile and living arrangements, which will be highly crucial to decisions on future service provision and policy making.

Current and likely future demographic trends in East Renfrewshire include:

• Since 2011, population has grown by 4.8 per cent to 95, 170 in 2018. Seventy five per cent live in the Eastwood area (Busby, Clarkston and Williamwood, and Waterfoot, Giffnock, and , Newton Mearns and Thornliebank) and 25 per cent live in the Levern Valley (Barrhead, Neilston and Uplawmoor).

• The growth of the population, between 2011 and 2018, has been concentrated in Newton Mearns (13.2 per cent), Uplawmoor (11.0 per cent), Eaglesham and Waterfoot (9.0 per cent), Clarkston and Williamwood (3.6 per cent), Busby (3.3 per cent), Giffnock (1.1 per cent), Barrhead (0.6 per cent), Thornliebank (0.6 per cent) and Netherlee and Stamperland (0.4 per cent). Population declined in Neilston (-3.3 per cent).

• The number of children and young people increased by 7.8 per cent from 2011 to 2018. The proportion of 5 to 14 year olds as a percentage of the total East Renfrewshire population is the highest across Scotland’s 32 local authority areas.

• Declining death rates in all ages has led to higher life expectancies for both men (80.5) and women (83.7). This is the second-highest life expectancy in Scotland for males and the highest life expectancy in Scotland for females.

• Increasing ageing population with a 42 per cent increase in the number of residents aged 85 and over during the last decade. By 2041, almost one quarter of East Renfrewshire is projected to be aged 65 or over, in line with Scottish projections.

• Although East Renfrewshire still has the highest average household size across Scotland’s local authorities at 2.42 people, this is projected to reduce due to increasing trends with an ageing population and more people living alone.

• Single person households increased over the past 13 years and now account for 32 per cent of the East Renfrewshire area. Nationally, single person households are now the most common household type.

3 • From 2011 to 2018, the number of households has risen by 4.8 per cent to 39, 108.

• Joint second highest in Scotland for percentage who are married or same sex couples with the second lowest proportion of divorcees.

• One of the most ethnically and cultu rally diverse areas in Scotland with significant Muslim and Jewish communities.

• Increasing pattern of more people entering East Renfrewshire than leaving (520 more moving in than leaving in 2017-18). People aged 30-45 account for the largest proportion of entrants, mostly coming from .

• Increasing demand for private sector rental market in Eastwood area and the number of private sector rentals has significantly increased over past 10 years. Meanwhile the highest proportion of people who own their house by mortgage, with house prices in the Eastwood area remaining amongst the most expensive in Scotland.

These trends will have many implications including:

• The overall number of children is increasing across several areas, in particul ar in Newton Mearns, Clarkston and Eaglesham. There is a higher concentration of childrn en eeding education with implications for nursery and school provision. Projections also show the children and young people cohort continuing to grow over the next 25 years.

• Changing housing needs: the housing needs of a 40 year old in a single person household are very different from the housing needs of an 85 year old in a single person household. Meanwhile rising number of private sector rental properties creates more demand for school places.

• Increasing demand on care services due to a rise in the proportion of older people and the onset of health related issues arising from an ageing population.

• Rise in commuters working outwith East Renfrewshire with increasing demands on public transport such as trains and the road network.

4

3.0 | Population - In more detail

3.1 | Population by Community*

East Renfrewshire is situated to the south of the City of Glasgow. It covers an area of 67 sq miles (174 sq km). The north of the area comprises the urban areas of Giffnock, Newton Mearns, Clarkston, Thornliebank and Barrhead. Each of these settlements has a distinctive character. There is also an extensive rural hinterland to the South, within which, the villages of Uplawmoor, Neilston, Waterfoot and Eaglesham area are located. Approximately 15 per cent of the area is urban and 85 per cent rural. The Levern Valley area includes the settlements of Barrhead, Neilston and Uplawmoor. The Eastwood area includes Busby, Clarkston and Williamwood, Eaglesham and Waterfoot, Giffnock, Netherlee and Stamperland, Newton Mearns and Thornliebank.

Table 1 The population of East Renfrewshire increased

by 4.8 per cent to 95,170 from 2011-2018. The Population by community 2011 2014 2016 2017 2018

highest proportion of the East Renfrewshire Barrhead 17,672 17,820 17,798 17,823 17,782 population live in the Eastwood area (75 per Busby 3,810 3,917 3,890 3,915 3,937 cent). Clarkston and Williamwood 8,944 9,234 9,283 9,300 9,270 Eaglesham and Waterfoot 4,641 4,769 4,971 5,077 5,057 The majority of this population growth has been Giffnock 12,126 12,106 12,260 12,322 12,256 concentrated in Newton Mearns (13.2 per cent), Neilston 5,515 5,440 5,337 5,322 5,332 Uplawmoor (11.0 per cent), Eaglesham and Netherlee and Stamperland 8,132 8,164 8,233 8,194 8,163 Waterfoot (9.0 per cent). These other areas Newton Mearns 24,897 25,884 26,993 27,659 28,177 population has also increased Clarkston and Thornliebank 4,181 4,158 4,135 4,181 4,206 Williamwood (3.6 per cent), Busby (3.3 per cent), Uplawmoor 892 887 911 967 9,90

Giffnock (1.1 per cent), Barrhead (0.6 per cent), Total 90,810 92,380 93,810 94,760 95,170 Thornliebank (0.6 per cent) and Netherlee and Stamperland (0.4 per cent). The population Source: NRS 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018 mid-year estimates. declined in Neilston (-3.3 per cent).

Graph 1. Population change by community 2011-2018, all ages

15.0% 13.2% 13.0% 11.0% 11.0% 9.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.6% 3.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4%

-1.0% Newton Uplawmoor Eaglesham Clarkston Busby Giffnock Barrhead Thornliebank Netherlee Neilston Mearns and and and -3.0% Waterfoot Williamwood Stamperland -3.3% -5.0%

Source: NRS 2011 and 2018 mid-year population estimate

5

Population by Age | 3.2

Graph 2. Population by Single Year of Age, 2018 (NRS Mid-Year Estimates)

90+ 85 80 19.9% 75 aged 65 70 and over 65 60 55 50 45

Age 40 35 30 20.3% 25 59.8% aged 15 20 between 15 and under 16 and 64 10 5 0 1000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Number of People Females Males

Source: NRS 2018 mid-year population estimate

In 1911, the national population structure was a perfect pyramid. Over 100 years later, the populations in different age groups are much more evenly mixed with a wide belt being seen to move upward with age.

Between 2011 and 2018, the rate of change in age-specific population groups between Scotland and East Renfrewshire was most pronounced among the 65 and older population with a 15.5% increase. The number of children and young people aged 0-15, and the working age population aged 16-64, also increased over the last 6 years, 7.8% and 0.8% respectively. However, this has been at a slower rate than the 65+ population growth. This highlights the changing age structure within the authority.

6

3.3 | Age by Community

Between 2011 and 2018 there has been an increase in the number of children and young people living in the area (7.8%); working age population aged 16-64 (0.8%) and older people aged 65 and over (15.5%). Scotland experienced small increases in children and young people (0.4 %) and the 16-64 population (0.1%) as well as an increase in the older population (14.5%). East Renfrewshire experienced a larger increase than Scotland across all three age groups.

However, across East Renfrewshire’s communities, the picture varies with Neilston and Barrhead experiencing reductions in the number of children and young people by 9.7% and 2.9% respectively. Whilst areas such as Busby (10.0%), Clarkston and Williamwood (8.7%), Eaglesham and Waterfoot (24.0%), Thornliebank (8.7%) and Newton Mearns (17.8%) all experienced a higher increase than the East Renfrewshire average of 7.8%.

Barrhead (-1.9%), Giffnock (-5.0%), Neilston (-6.9%), Netherlee and Stamperland (-4.5%) and Thornliebank (- 2.5%) each experienced a reduction in the number of residents aged between 16 and 64. Clarkston and Williamwood’s residents aged between 16 and 64 is at the same level now as it was in 2011. On the other hand, Busby (1.2%), Eaglesham and Waterfoot (3.8%); Newton Mearns (9.1%) and Uplawmoor (7.3%) saw a higher increase than the East Renfrewshire average of 0.8%.

All of East Renfrewshire’s communities experienced an increase in the number of people aged 65 and over. The increase in the percentages of 65s and over in Neilston (22.1%); Newton Mearns (21.7%) and Uplawmoor (26.1%) is higher than the Council wide figure of 15.5%.

Graph 3. Age band by community, 2018

100.0% 18.7% 17.2% 18.1% 16.3% 19.2% 19.5% 25.2% 21.9% 19.4% 22.6% 80.0%

60.0% 60.9% 60.0% 58.4% 58.8% 63.6% 63.5% 55.5% 64.0% 57.6% 60.4% 40.0% 65+ 20.0% 16-64 17.8% 19.9% 22.8% 22.0% 19.3% 17.9% 20.5% 21.8% 20.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0-15

Source: NRS 2018 Mid-Year population Estimates

7

3.4 | Births and Deaths in East Renfrewshire

Graph 4. Births and deaths in East Renfrewshire

1,400 Births 1,123 Deaths 1,200 909 1,000

800 820 854 600

400

200

0

Source: NRS 2018 Vital Events

The birth rate has declined quite significantly over the past 27 years in East Renfrewshire, moving from 13.1 per 1,000 population in 1991 to 9 per 1,000 population in 2018. Between 2017 and 2018, East Renfrewshire experienced a 3.6 per cent decrease in the number of births, dropping from 886 in 2017 to 854 in 2018. The number of births in Scotland declined by 2.9 per cent between 2017 and 2018.

Overall, East Renfrewshire’s death rate is currently at the same level as it was in 1991, 9.6 per 1,000 population, this takes into account the large population that there is in 2018. This has remained fairly stable between 1991 and

2018, with the highest death rate reaching 10.5 in 2003.

The birth rate in Scotland has fallen to the lowest level since records began almost 150 years ago sitting at 9.4 births per 1,000 population in 2018.

East Renfrewshire’s life expectancy levels in 2018 are the second highest in Scotland for males (80.5 years) and highest in Scotland for females (83.7 years).

8 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Households | 4.0

4.1 | Household Changes

From 2011 to 2018, the number of households has risen by 4.9 per cent to 39, 108. East Renfrewshire has the largest average household size in Scotland, with 2.42 people per household, which has stayed stable since 2011. Scotland has an average household size of 2.15 people.

Graph 5. Household changes from 2011 to 2018

5.0% 4.9% 4.2% 4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0% East Renfrewshire Scotland

Source: - NRS Estimates of Household and Dwellings in Scotland, 2018

4.2 | Household Size and Composition

Graph 6. Household Size Comparison 2011-2018

3

2011 2018 2.5

2.42 2.42 2 2.19 2.15

d l

o 1.5h se

u e iz

Ho s 1

0.5

0

East Renfrewshire Scotland

Source: - NRS Estimates of Household and Dwellings in Scotland, 2018

9 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

The latest household projections show that single person household’s account for almost one third (32%) of all households in East Renfrewshire (Scotland 36%). By 2041 this is expected to grow to 39%, whilst houses with two adults and one child or more, and households with three or more adults are projected to decline by 3 percentage points each over the same time period. This is a lower reduction rate than Scotland as a whole, which is projected to decrease by around 8 percentage points and 6 percentage points respectively.

Graph 7. Household Projections by Type 2016-2041

45%

40% 39% 35%

30% 32% 29% 25% 25% 24% 20% 21% 15%

10% 10% 8%

Percentage of households by type householdsofPercentageby 5% 6% 7% 0% 1 adult 1 adult, 1+ 2 adults 2+ adults, 1+ 3+ adults children children 2016 2041

Source: NRS, 2016-based Household Projections

10 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

4.3 | Households by composition

Graph 8. Household composition East Renfrewshire

Single occupant 65+ 14.6% Single occupant Under 65 15.6% Family- all aged 65+ 9.7% Married / civil partners - no children 12.4% Married / civil partners - dependent… 21.1% Married / civil partners - non-dependent… 0.4% cohabitating couple - no children 2.6% cohabitating couple - dependent children 2.6% Lone Parent: dependent children 6.3% Lone Parent: non-dependent children 3.6% Other HH: dependent children 1.4% Other 1.6%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Source: NRS Census 2011

In the Census of 2011, married or same-sex couple families (either with or without children) were the most common household type at 34 per cent. This was followed by households with one person aged under 65 living alone (16 per cent) or with one person aged 65 or over living alone (15 per cent). Lone parent families accounted for 10 per cent of all households with nearly two thirds of these including dependent children. Five per cent were cohabiting couple families and 10 per cent were families aged 65 and over. The remaining 3 per cent were ‘other’ household types.

East Renfrewshire Council has a higher than the Scottish average percentage of households with married / civil partners with dependent children (21.1 per cent).

The percentage of households with one person aged under 65 living alone is smaller (6 per cent difference) in East Renfrewshire than in Scotland as an average. However there is a slightly higher proportion of one person households aged 65 and over and families aged 65 and over (both are 2 per cent higher than the Scottish average).

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 11

7.0% 6.3% 1.6% 5.0 | Religion 5,737 Not Stated 368,039

East Renfrewshire is one of the most ethnically and culturally diverse

1.2% areas in Scotland, with significant Jewish and Muslim communities. 36.7% 26.5% 24,041 No Religion 1,941,118

In the Census of 2011, there was a much higher percentage of people in East

171 Renfrewshire who stated they have a religion (73 per cent) when compared 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 15,196 All All with Scotland as a whole (63 per cent).

Religions

Twenty-seven per cent of people stated they had ‘no religion’, compared to 548 Sikh 0.2% 0.6% 6.1%

9,055 37% in Scotland

1.4% 3.3% 3.9%

3,002 Six out of ten people said that their religion was ‘Christian’ (60 per cent): 33 76,737 Muslim per cent ‘’, 22 per cent ‘Roman Catholic’ and 4 per cent

‘Other Christian’. In Scotland, ‘Church of Scotland’ (32 per cent), ‘Roman 0.1% 2.6% 5,887 2,399 40.8%

Jewish Catholic’ (16 per cent) and ‘Other Christian’ (6 per cent).

366

0.3% 0.4% 2.2% The proportion of the population who recorded that they belonged to the Hindu 16,379 ‘Church of Scotland’ fell by 8.1 per cent between 2001 and 2011. Over the

same period the proportion of the population stating they were ‘Roman 172 0.2% 0.2% 1.3%

12,795 Catholic’ increased by 1.5 per cent.

Buddhist

After Christianity, the next largest religion was ‘Muslim’ which represented 5.5% 4.1% 1.3% 3,724

291,275 3.3 per cent with an increase of 1.2 per cent from 2001. This was followed Christian

by ‘Jewish’ at 2.6 per cent which represents 41 per cent of the ‘Jewish’ population in Scotland. The other religions combined (including ‘Hindu’, 2.4% 15.9% 22.2% 20,135

841,053 ‘Buddhist’, ‘Sikh’ and ‘Other religion’) represented a further 1.4 per cent. Roman Roman Catholic

1.8% 32.4% 33.4%

30,279

1,717,871

Scotland Churchof

All All 90,574 People

5,295,403

Table 2 Table Source: NRS census 2001 and 2011 and 2001 census NRS Source:

Religion (from Results)2011 (from Religion Census Scotland Scotland of % Renfrewshire East East Renfrewshire of % of % a Scotland as East Renfrewshire

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 12

The religious make-up in all wards changed between 2001 and 2011 Census years. The highest proportions of the population who identified as ‘Church of Scotland’ live in the wards of Newton Mearns South or Busby, Clarkston and Eaglesham. The highest proportion of people identified as ‘Roman Catholic’ are located in the Barrhead ward (stayed same at 30% over past 10 years). Wards with the largest increases in ‘Roman Catholic’ population include Giffnock and Thornliebank and Netherlee, Stamperland and Williamwood. The highest proportion of ‘Muslim’ population live in the Giffnock and Thornliebank ward, with a high proportion of people also based in the ward of Neilston, Uplawmoor and Newton Mearns areas. The proportion of ‘Jewish’ population is highest in Newton Mearns, Giffnock and Thornliebank.

Ward Key

1 Barrhead, Liboside and Uplawmoor

2 Newton Mearns and Neilston

3 Giffnock and Thornliebank

4 Clarkston, Netherlee and Williamwood

5 Newton Mearns South and Eaglesham

© Crown copyright and database right 2018. All rights reserved. Ordinance Survey License number 100023382 2018, East Renfrewshire Council

Religion 2001 – 2011 Graph 9

40,000 Church of Scotland 35,000 No religion

30,000 Roman Catholic Other Christian Religion 25,000 Not stated 20,000 Muslim

Buddhist 15,000 Hindu 10,000 Jewish 5,000 Sikh

0 Other religions 2001 2011

Source: NRS Census 2011 relating to ethnicity and religion (release 2A)

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 13

Ethnicity | 6.0

Most people in East Renfrewshire (94 per cent) report their ethnicity as ‘White’. The majority of these people belonged to the ‘White: Scottish’ category (87 per cent). The ‘White: other British’ was the second largest category at 4.1 per cent. Of the ‘White’ ethnic group, 2.9 per cent identified as ‘non-British White’ including 1.5 per cent of ‘White: Irish’ and 1.2 per cent ‘Other: White’ with 0.2 per cent ‘White: Polish’.

Minority ethnic groups in East Renfrewshire have grown in size between 2001 and 2011, and generally, lived in more mixed areas in 2011, compared to 2001 (Table 4).

The ‘Asian’ population showed the largest increase and at the time of the 2011 Census represented 5 per cent of the total East Renfrewshire population. ‘Mixed or multiple’ ethnic groups represented 0.4 per cent and ‘Other Ethnic’ groups 0.3 per cent of the population. The ‘African, Caribbean or Black’ groups made up 0.1 per cent of the population.

Graph 10: Diversity Profile

Ethnic groups other than White Scottish or White Other British, 2001 – 2011

3,000 Pakistani

White Irish 2,500 Indian

Chinese

2,000 Mixed or multiple

African

1,500 Bangladeshi

Caribbean

1,000

500

0 2001 2011

NRS Migration from 2009-2011 by single year of age

14 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Table 3 Diversity Profile % of population from a minority ethnic group by ward

Ward* 2001 2011 Barrhead 0.9% 2% Neilston, Uplawmoor and Newton 5.9% 9.2% Mearns North

Newton Mearns South 4.6% 7.9% Netherlee, Stamperland and 2.4% 3.7% Williamwood

Giffnock and Thornliebank 8.3% 9.7%

Busby, Clarkston and Eaglesham 1.5% 3.2%

East Renfrewshire Total 4% 6% *2007 Electoral Wards

15 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

7.0 | Migration

Scotland's population was at its highest level in 2018 with 5,438, 100 people. The increase on 2017 was mainly down to migration, with 80, 600 people coming to Scotland and 59,700 leaving. There were 51,308 births registered in 2018, 3 per cent less than the year before, and 58,503 deaths, resulting in a net population increase of 13,705.

The current increase in East Renfrewshire’s population has been driven mostly by net in-migration; the numbers of births and deaths are very similar. The 30-45 year old age group accounted for the largest group of in-migrants. The largest group of out-migrants was the 15-29 year old age group.

Graph 11. All migrants as a % of the population by single year of age for East Renfrewshire 2016-2018

East Renfrewshire In migrants 30.0% Out migrants 20.0% Net migrants 10.0%

0.0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 & over -10.0%

-20.0% Percentage of population of Percentage

-30.0% Age

Source: NRS, Migration to or from Scotland, 2018

16 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Graph 12. Net Migration for East Renfrewshire by Year, 2008/09 – 2017/18

Number of people coming into East Renfrewshire deducted from the numbers leaving (net migration) 1200

1000 958 890 819 800

627 600 539 520

400 369 270 189 Numberof people (netmigration) 200 72

0 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Source: NRS, Migration to and from administrative areas

In 2017/18, 3,790 people moved into East Renfrewshire and 3,270 residents moved out of the area. This meant that East Renfrewshire experienced an overall rise in population of 520.

Of the 3,790 people moving into the authority, the majority were from Glasgow City (53 per cent), elsewhere in UK (10 per cent), South (9 per cent) and Renfrewshire (7 per cent).

The proportion of migrants who arrived from overseas was 3 per cent (100 people).

Graph 13. Net migration of children and young people, 2007/08 – 2017/18 Number of children/young people who came into East Renfrewshire 450 deducted by those leaving (net migration) 0-4 Years 400 5-9 Years 350 10-14 Years 300

250

200

150

100

Numberof people (netmigration) 50

0 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Source: NRS, Migration to and from administrative areas

17 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

8.0 | 16 and under Age Group

8.1 | Population changes from 2011 to 2018

Table 4

16 and under population Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 16

East Renfrewshire 2011 2018 2011 2018 2011 2018 2011 2018

Number of people 4885 5185 5483 6520 6063 6476 2508 2317

% of East Renfrewshire total 5.4 5.4 6.1 6.8 6.7 6.8 2.8 2.4 Nationally, the overall population population is ageing and the % Scotland 5.5 5.1 6.1 5.5 6.4 5.3 2.3 2.0 numbers of people aged 16 and Scottish ranking 4 4 3 1 3 1 2= 1 out of 32 authorities under are decreasing.

Source: NRS Mid-year estimates 2011 and 2018 In East Renfrewshire, there has

been a rise in population of the under 5s, 5 to 9 year olds and 10 to Graph 14. Number of Under 5s as a 14 year olds. From 2011 to 2018, of Total Population of Community, the number of children under the 2011 and 2017 age of 5 increased by 6.1 per cent 7.0% 2011 and the number of 5 to 9 years olds increased by 18.9 per cent. 6.0% 2018 The number of young people 5.0% aged 10 to 14 increased by 6.8 per cent during this period. The 4.0% proportion of 5 to 9 year olds and 10 to 14 year olds as a percentage 3.0% of the total East Renfrewshire population is the highest across 2.0% Scotland’s 32 local authority areas. 1.0%

0.0% The increase in children aged under 5 years old is concentrated in the Eastwood side of the authority as graph 14 highlights. Eaglesham and Waterfoot has the highest proportion of children aged under 5 at 6.3 per cent of the overall population but other areas like Newton Mearns follow Source: NRS Mid-year estimates 2011 and 2018 closely behind.

18 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Graph 15. % of 5 to 9 year olds as a % of total population by community

9.0% 2011 8.0% 2018 7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Source NRS mid-year estimates 2011 and 2018 There are increases in the proportion of 5 to 9 year old children across different communities as the graph above highlights. The Clarkston and Williamwood area retains the highest proportion of children aged 5 to 9 years old. There was a reduction in the proportion of young people aged 10 to 14 across 6 of the 10 communities between 2011 and 2018. Clarkston and Williamwood also has the highest proportion of 10 to 14 year olds, closely followed by the Busby area, across East Renfrewshire.

Graph 16. % of 10 to 14 year olds as a % of total population by community*

9.0% 2011 8.0% 2018

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Source: NRS mid-year estimates 2011 and 2017.

*Note: Overall population in Uplawmoor is very small therefore percentage looks high when there is a minor change.

19 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Early learning and childcare provision | 8.2

Graph 17. Early learning and childcare in East Renfrewshire including funded provider places

2500 2,155 2,190 2,260 2,268 2,044 2,126 2,237 2000 1,969 2,014 1,883

1500

1000

500

0 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Source: Education Management Information Service (East Renfrewshire) June 2019 Note: Excludes children who attend East Renfrewshire early learning and childcare provision but who live outwith the .

The graph above shows the increasing trend in the number of 3 and 4 year olds in East Renfrewshire attending Council and funded (partnership) provider early learning and childcare facilities over the past 10 years, an increase of 20 per cent. In 2018, approx. 14 per cent of the early learning and childcare provision was commissioned from funded providers for East Renfrewshire children. Funded providers comprise voluntary, independent and private nurseries that offer early learning and childcare and have been commissioned and registered by East Renfrewshire Council to provide funded places. The Council is working to grow its funded provision also through childminders as part of its expansion plans.

From August 2014 all local authorities have had a duty to increase provision to 600 hours to all 3 and 4 year old children and introduce some flexibility on how entitlement is provided, the latter introducing an element of inefficiency in operating entitled provision, lower occupancy levels. Since then, we also have a duty to provide early learning and childcare provision for eligible 2 year old children. More recently early learning and childcare entitlement to all 3, 4 and eligible 2 year old children is to increase from 600 hours to 1140 hours by August 2020.

Increasing entitlement and flexibility for families place demands on the capacity (available places) and resulting occupancy levels of East Renfrewshire early learning and childcare facilities. Further new places are required as a consequence of the increased entitlement to 1140 hours from August 2020 and ongoing and planned new residential development. In addition to increasing local authority provision the Council is increasing places from partner providers, including childminders. The Council has introduced additional provision with new nursery classes at St Cadoc's PS and the new Maidenhill PS, both opening August 2019.

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 20

Moving forward we will see the introduction of two new build family centres in the sites of Crookfur and Overlee pavilions; new build larger replacements for Busby and Eaglesham primary school nursery classes; new build larger replacement for Glenwood Family Centre; a new extension at Cross Primary School to establish a nursery class; and modest enhancements for the early year’s facilities at Carolside and Hazeldene. The table below summarises the current number of places, against numbers of 3 and 4 year old children attending Council early learning and childcare facilities by community area. In addition to this, the Council commissioned 332 places for early learning and childcare from funded providers. This is based on entitled hours and does not include any additionality provided to families via wraparound to meet current demand for greater provision.

Table 5

Total no of half day Total Children (ER and ER Non-ER % Occupancy (based solely on sessions Non-ER) Children Children entitled hours) 580 474 472 2 82% Barrhead/Neilston 852 576 566 10 68% Busby/Clarkston

Giffnock/Thornliebak 420 334 330 4 80% 780 631 618 13 81% Newton Mearns

2,632 2,015 1,986 29 77%

Source: Education Management Information Service June 19 - please note figures do change throughout the year as 3 year olds can start up to February of any year.

As at June 2019, it can be seen that overall the Council’s early learning and childcare provision was 77 per cent occupied, based solely on entitled hours, which is a decrease on last year as facilities begin to be extended to add capacity in preparation for August 2020. Including wraparound provision, the occupancy rates are much higher. Almost all of this provision will be subsumed as 1140 hours is implemented.

It should also be noted that 3 year old children are accepted to early learning and childcare facilities on their third birthday, and so the number of children increases throughout the school year. A very small percentage of children living out with the area attend the Council's early learning and childcare provision. Variations in demand for early learning and childcare places do exist across the Council area.

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 21

Primary school provision | 8.3

Graph 18. Primary 1 roll by year

(Including children who attend East Renfrewshire schools but who live outwith the council area)

1400

1,312 1300 1,271 1,240 1,245 1,240 1,207 1,200 1200 1,168 1,191 1,149 1,152 1,155 1,119 1,116 1100 1,102 1,100 1,066

Numberof primary school pupils 1000

900 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Pupil Census, 2018

The East Renfrewshire Primary 1 roll decreased by 8 per cent from 2003 to 2008 and then peaked in 2009. During the past 8 years, the P1 roll has steadily increased annually resulting in a 16.3% increase since 2010. Over recent years, there has been considerable variation in some P1 rolls, with certain areas increasing and others decreasing.

Graph 19. Primary roll

10,000 9,295 8,8709,135 8,7328,6738,5898,445 8,4718,705 9,000 8,3718,2788,2548,2088,1278,1748,281 8,000 8,3728,555 7,8708,037 7,000 7,7717,6787,533 7,603 7,3987,2587,1857,2397,2647,2337,2917,387 6,000 Primary school roll total 5,000 4,000 3,000 Primary school roll excl. children 2,000 who attend East Renfrewshire Number of Pupils of Number schools but live outwith the 1,000 council area 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source::Scottish Government Education Census, 2018

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 22

After a period of a decrease in pupil numbers, there has been a steady increase to levels now reaching the highest figures in over 10 years. The total primary roll decreased by 6.3 per cent from 2004 to 2011 and then steadily increased by over 14 per cent between 2011 and 2018, beyond levels in 2004. From 2007 there has been a 33.5 per cent reduction in the number of primary aged children who attend an East Renfrewshire school and currently live out with the council area, as the number of East Renfrewshire resident children have increased over this period by 17.9%. (The below table does not include Maidenhill Primary School because of the time in the year that the Scottish Government School Census is carried out. This will be included in next year’s School Census information)

Table 6. Primary school roll information

School Name School Roll Nos (2018) School Roll Nos Planned capacity Nos Number of pupils who (2017) 2018 live outwith East Renfrewshire

Braidbar Primary 218 223 360 73

Busby Primary 306 315 294 22

Calderwood Lodge 165 152 210 78

Carlibar Primary 239 228 294 16

Carolside Primary 828 836 840 45

Crookfur Primary 445 398 420 43

Cross Arthurlie Primary 329 323 420 33

Eaglesham Primary 411 414 420 22

Giffnock Primary 399 391 420 80

Hillview Primary 195 213 420 6

Kirkhill Primary 648 655 630 35

Mearns Primary 870 840 840 64

Neilston Primary 296 295 420 7

Netherlee Primary 739 731 840 41

Our Lady of the 903 915 840 19 Missions

St Cadoc's Primary 634 653 600 14

St Clare’s Primary School 273 185 420 8

St John's Primary 218 217 294 11

St Joseph's Primary 429 432 420 12

St Mark's Primary 367 348 420 14

St Thomas's Primary 136 130 210 3

Thornliebank Primary 176 169 210 92

Uplawmoor Primary 71 72 84 2

TOTAL 9,295 9,135 10,326 740

Source: Education Management Information Service, June 2019 (The schools in bold are those that have a school roll higher than the planned capacity) * for primary schools, the capacity is planned on a class size maximum of 30; it is noted from P4 onwards that up to 33 pupils can be accepted at each stage and the maximum at P1 is 25.

23 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Graph 20. Primary school occupancy levels

120% 108% 104% 106% 103% 104% 106% 99% 98% 102% 100% 95% 88% 87% 84% 85% 79% 81% 78% 80% 70% 74% 61% 65% 65% 60% 46% 40%

20%

0% Calderwood Lodge Busby PrimarySchool Mearns School Primary CrossArthurlie Primary… Carlibar Primary School Hillview Primary School KirkhillPrimary School Neilston Primary School Giffnock Primary School Braidbar Primary School St John's Primary School CrookfurPrimary School St Clare's Primary School Our Lady oftheMissions Carolside Primary School St Mark's Primary School NetherleePrimary School St Cadoc's PrimarySchool Eaglesham PrimarySchool St Joseph's School Primary St Thomas' Primary School Uplawmoor Primary School Thornliebank PrimarySchool

Source: Education Management Information Service, 2018

The above graph shows the levels of occupancy in our primary schools. Schools can have high occupancy levels as a consequence of demand from their catchment areas and/or through places being allocated via the placing request process from pupils resident out with the school’s catchment areas. 2018 shows seven schools above 100% planning capacity.

There are a number of schools with very high occupancy levels which reflects high numbers of children resident in the school's catchment area. There are still some places in these schools which have been taken up through the placing request application process. There are other high occupancy schools where a larger number of places are still available for resident population indicated by the high percentage of pupils attending ERC schools but who reside out with ERC. The high occupancy levels are in Busby, Crookfur, Kirkhill, Mearns, OLM, St Cadoc’s and St Joseph’s Primary School.

Where an occupancy rate of a school is consistently high with catchment pupils over a period of time, longer term arrangements must be considered to ensure sufficient school places are available.

The new faith schools' joint campus in Newton Mearns opened in August 2017. This increased primary Catholic provision in the area with the new St Clare's primary with scope to meet future demands of known planned house building in the Newton Mearns area. This also provided additional early learning and childcare places with an extended Calderwood Lodge Nursery Class to help meet demand in the Newton Mearns area.

Maidenhill Primary School opened in August 2019 and is a two-stream primary school, which will help to address high occupancy levels in Kirkhill and Mearns Primary School. In addition, the relocation of Crookfur Nursery to Crookfur Pavilion will create further capacity within the Primary. With plans in progress to increase nursery places at Busby and Eaglesham, there will be scope to ease pressure on primary places should higher primary levels be sustained. Any increased pressure on the school estate which results in additional requirements, and future needs, for both secondary and primary provision and/or extensions, will continue to be monitored through the Action Programme and review of the Local Development Plan.

24 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Graph 21. % primary school children who attend East Renfrewshire schools but live outwith the council area 50% 44% 45% 40% 37% 35% 30% 25% 20% 19% 20% 15% 10% 7% 8% 8% 10% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 5% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 0% % of % pupils who live outwith East Renfrewshire

The graph above shows the percentage of primary school children who attend East Renfrewshire schools but live out with the council area. Overall the number of external pupils has decreased from 2017.

25 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Graph 22. Primary non-denominational and denominational rolls

7000 6416 6335

6000

5000

4000

Number Pupilsof 3000 2960 2000 2473 Non-Denominational Roll Denominational Roll

1000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Annual school census for Scottish Government 2018

The graph above shows that non-denominational primary decreased by 0.8 per cent between 2004 and 2018. This includes placing requests from children out with the East Renfrewshire area. Since 2004, the denominational primary roll increased by over 21%. In 2018, including placing requests from out with East Renfrewshire, 68 per cent (6,335) of primary aged children attend non-denominational schools and 32 per cent (2,960) attend a denominational school.

26 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

8.4 | Secondary provision

Graph 23. Secondary school roll 9000

7756 8000 7591

7000

6508 6000

Number Pupilsof 6156

Secondary school roll total

5000 Secondary school roll excluding young people who attend East Renfrewshire but who live outwith the council area 4000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census 2018

The graph above shows that the secondary school roll increased by 4.7 per cent between 2004 and 2010 then reduced by 2.9 per cent between 2010 and 2018. However there has been a gradual reduction in the number of non-ERC pupils attending our secondary schools. Around 16 per cent of secondary age young people who attend an East Renfrewshire school currently live out with the area, down 2% from last year.

Table 7. Secondary school roll information 2018 Roll of school (nos) Planned capacity (nos) Number of pupils who live outwith East Renfrewshire

Barrhead High 588 850 56

Eastwood High 1022 1220 192

Mearns Castle High 1300 1540 146

St Luke's High 595 848 46

St Ninian's High 1776 1704 252

Williamwood High 1632 1710 182

Woodfarm High 843 998 374

Total 7,756 8,870 1,248 Source: Education Management Information Service 2018

27 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Graph 24. Secondary school occupancy (2018)

120% 104% 100% 95% 84% 84% 84% 80% 69% 70%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Source: Education Management Information Service, 2018

The chart above shows the occupancy levels in every secondary school in East Renfrewshire. There is capacity within most schools to address additional demand. Occupancy levels vary from 69 per cent in Barrhead High school to 104 per cent in St Ninians’ High school.

Graph 25. % Secondary school children who attend East Renfrewshire schools but who live outwith the council area

50% 45% 44% 40% 35% 30% 25% 19% 20% 14% 15% 10% 11% 11% 10% 8% 5% 0%

Source: Education Management Information Service, 2018

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 28

The bar chart above shows the number of pupils that attend our secondary schools but reside out with the council area i.e. a number of pupils attending these schools as a result of a successful placing request. This shows that there is scope to accommodate additional catchment pupils in schools with high occupancy levels in areas with known planned new house building according to current approved LDP and agreed windfall.

Following due consultation, in December 2016 the Education Committee approved a report on new arrangements for admissions and transfer for all East Renfrewshire Roman Catholic and Non-Denominational Primary and Secondary Schools. This will help manage places should schools be oversubscribed by catchment demand giving priority to those baptised Roman Catholic pupils to Roman Catholic schools. Based on previous admission arrangements, St Ninian's High School had a large number of pupils admitted through placing requests. As in all schools, as demand for catchment places increases there will be a corresponding decrease in the number of places made available for placing requests. This and the new admission and transfer arrangements policy will help manage places at the school in line with developments in the current approved LDP.

As noted elsewhere in this document, education places will continue to be monitored and reviewed as part of the Local Development Planning processes and any other changes to local/national education policy that may affect capacity to ensure that there are sufficient places for local residents.

Graph 26. Secondary denominational and non-denominational rolls

6000 5463 5504 5490 5520 5511 5305 5333 5385 5421 5427 5407 5431 5397 5384 5409 5385

5000

Non-Denominational Roll

4000

Denominational Roll 3000

Number Pupilsof 2000 2438 2466 2469 2449 2435 2427 2406 2286 2292 2320 2311 2341 2369 2386 2392 2371

1000

0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Annual school census for Scottish Government 2018

Above, the chart shows that the non-denominational secondary roll has remained fairly static over the years. During the same period, the denominational secondary roll increased by almost 3.4 per cent. These figures include pupils residing out with the East Renfrewshire area.

In 2018, including placing requests from outwith East Renfrewshire, 69 per cent (5,385) of children attend non-denominational secondary schools and 31 per cent (2,371) attend a denominational secondary school.

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 29

Vulnerable children | 8.5

East Renfrewshire Council provides care and support services for the most vulnerable children in our communities.

There are social and economic changes taking place nationally that have increased some of the vulnerabilities in our communities. This can be seen in the number of children being looked after by East Renfrewshire Council.

The number of looked after children has been reducing by, on average, 15 children a year since 2013. The majority of children are cared for away from their family home however there is a significant proportion on home supervision and growing numbers in kinship care. The need for residential accommodation continues to remain small in East Renfrewshire as we strive to develop more nurturing and supportive family type placements. There are also currently 151 individuals between the ages of 18 and 26 that are eligible for aftercare services, with this figure expected to grow over the coming years.

Foster care has accounted for over 25% of placements in recent years and demand for this will grow as more young people will need to be supported on their journey into young adulthood. In anticipation of this demand and the increasing complexity of the needs of children we have been actively working to increase our pool of foster carers These changes are likely to place additional demand on services for children and families. Overall the local implementation of the national PACE programme has ensured that we have reduced the number of children being in care for lengthy periods of time enabling them to move onto more stable and secure home environments. As such we will continue to see a reduction in numbers of children on supervision although this is forecast to level out as the programme is completed.

Graph 27. Number of looked after children

200 187 174 175 180 154 160 146 140 130 117 120 110 100 80 60 40

Number lookedof after children 20 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Scottish Government: Children's social work statistics 2017-2018, snapshot at 31st July

30 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

9.0 | Older people

9.1 | Population changes

Over the past decade, the age profile of the Scottish population has become older, the number of people aged 65 and over has increased by almost 20 per cent across Scotland and 21 per cent across East Renfrewshire.

Locally, over the past 10 years, there was a 21 per cent increase (1732 people) in the number of people aged between 65 and 74.

The past decade has also resulted in a 42 per cent increase (803 people) in the number of East Renfrewshire residents aged 85 and over. Between 2008 and 2018, East Renfrewshire had the fourth highest increase in over 85s in Scotland.

In 2018, 19.8 per cent of people living in East Renfrewshire were aged 65 or over. By 2041, almost one quarter of the East Renfrewshire population will be aged 65 or over.

Table 8: Population age 65 and over

Age Group 2018 2016-Based Population Projections (National Records of Scotland) Age East Renfrewshire % of population % of population East Renfrewshire Year % Change 2016-2026 (Numbers) (East Renfrewshire) (Scotland Comparison) 2026 (Numbers) 65-74 9,910 10.4% 10.5% 10,978 + 12.5% 75-84 6,278 6.6% 6.1% 7,635 + 22.1% 85+ 2,709 2.8% 2.3% 3,583 + 39.4% Total 95,170 100,958 + 7.6% population Source: NRS mid-year estimates 2018 and 2016-Based Population Projections, National Records of Scotland

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 31

Graph 28. % population over 65 (2011, 2018 and 2026 projections)

12.0% 11.2% 10.9% 10.4% 10.5%

10.0% 9.2% 9.1%

8.0% 7.6% 7.4%

6.6% 6.3% 6.1% 6.0% 5.7% 65-74

75-84 4.0% 3.5% 85+ 2.8% 2.7% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0%

0.0% East Scotland East Scotland East Scotland Renfrewshire Renfrewshire Renfrewshire

2011 Mid-year 2018 Mid-Year 2026 Projections

Source: NRS mid-year estimates 2018 and 2016-Based Population Projections, National Records of Scotland

Graph 28 shows a comparison between the percentages of the population over 65 years of age in East Renfrewshire against the Scottish Average. The graph highlights the growing older population across Scotland and because East Renfrewshire residents have a higher life expectancy the greater increase in the percentage of the population over 85.

Graph 29. % Population change by community 2011 – 2018, Over 65s

30.0% 26.1% 25.0% 22.1% 21.7% 20.0% 15.5% 14.6% 15.0% 13.7% 10.8% 10.2% 10.0% 4.1% 5.0% 3.9%

0.0%

Source: NRS Mid-Year Population Estimates, 2011 and 2018

As the graph above shows that whilst most areas experienced a rise in people aged 65 and over, there are differences in age structures in the different areas of East Renfrewshire. Between 2011 and 2018, the number of over 65s in Uplawmoor, Neilston and Newton Mearns was higher than the Council average of 16.8%. Every area has more residents over the age of 65 than they did in 2011.

32 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Home Care and Care Homes | 9.2

The ageing of our population in East Renfrewshire is a significant factor for the delivery of council services. In recent years, the number of people aged over 85 needing key services has been rising. This has an impact on our services because the number of people aged 85 and over is expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the population. On this basis we can expect the number of people with a need for home care or care home support to steadily increase year on year.

Graph 30 shows that there are currently around 2,600 people aged 85+ living in East Renrewshire and by 2041 this is projected to increase to around 6,000 people.

Graph 30. Projected Population aged 85 and Over, 2016 – 2041

7,000

6,019 6,000

5,139 5,000

4,173 4,000 3,583 3,133 3,000

Number of residnets 85+ aged residnets of Number 2,571 2,000

1,000

0

Source: NRS 2016-Based Population Projections, National Records of Scotland

33 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

10.0 Additional support needs, health conditions and disabilities

10.1 Long-term health problem or disability

In the Census 2011, around one in five people in Scotland (20 per cent) reported that their day-to-day activities were limited either ‘a little’ or ‘a lot’ by a long-term health problem or disability. However in East Renfrewshire, this figure was slightly lower at 17 per cent of the population limited either a ‘little’ or ‘a lot’ by long-term health problem or disability.

However, East Renfrewshire had the fourth highest proportion of population in Scotland with one or more long-term health conditions. Graph 31. Long-term health problem or disability

Development disorder 580

Learning disability 445

Learning difficulty 1646

Blindness or partial loss 1850

Mental health condition 3194

Physical disability 4868

Deafness or partial hearing loss 5614

Other Condition 15488

One or more conditions 24753

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Source: NRS Census 2011

Over 80 per cent of people who reported having blindness or partial sight loss or deafness or partial hearing loss or a physical disability were over the age of 50. Whereas developmental disorders were generally more prevalent in the 0 to 24 year age group (83 per cent). Learning difficulties and learning disabilities were more common in the 0-49 age range. The largest proportion of people who reported a mental health condition were aged between 35 and 49 years (34 per cent). Seventy per cent of those who reported ‘other condition’ were aged 50 or over.

In East Renfrewshire, 86 per cent of the population rated their general health as ‘good’ or ‘very good’. In contrast, 4 per cent of all residents rated their general health as ’bad’ or ‘very bad’.

The majority (61 per cent) of people who reported that they were limited ‘a lot’ by a long-term health problem or disability were aged 60 or over. Just over 26 per cent were aged 80 or over. In fact half of the East Renfrewshire population who are aged 80 or over reported that they were limited a ‘lot’ by a long-term health problem or disability. The proportion of people reporting that they were limited ‘a lot’ by a long-term health problem or disability in each age category is usually around 2 per cent from age 0-25 and then it gradually increases reaching about 6 per cent of the population from age 45 onwards. Fifty-seven per cent of those who reported that they were limited a ‘little’ by a long-term health problem or disability were aged 60 or over.

34 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 10.2 Children and young people with additional support needs

Table 9 - % pupils with additional support needs

Primary Secondary East Renfrewshire National East Renfrewshire National 2018 17% 25.4% 26.8% 31.7% 2017 16.8% 23.5% 25.2% 29.3% 2016 13.3% 22.3% 24.2% 26.8% 2015 12.8% 20.4% 22.0% 24.0% 2014 14% 19% 20.0% 21.0% 2013 13.6% 18.4% 17.0% 19.1% 2012 15.6% 16.9% 15.9% 16.5% 2011 8.9% 13.9% 11.3% 13.7% 2010 7.8% 9.4% 7.1% 9.5%

Source: Pupils in Scotland Benchmarking 2018

Pupils may have an Individualised Educational Programme (IEP) with another record of support needs such as a Co- ordinated Support Plan (CSP) or other need. Pupils with any combination of support needs are categorised above as having additional support needs.

The number of pupils identified with additional support needs has increased markedly since the 2010 pupil census when information on additional support needs was collected in a different way. These increases represent continued improvements made to recording and an additional category of 'Child Plans' introduced in 2011.

In East Renfrewshire, there are 1,582 primary aged pupils and 2,080 secondary aged pupils identified with additional support needs. The percentage of pupils in primary schools with additional support needs has generally increased annually with the 2018 figure the highest to date. In secondary, the values have increased annually in line with the national trend.

35 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

10.3 Unpaid care

Graph 32. Unpaid Care

8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.58% 6.04% 6.00% 5.16% 5.00% 4.00% 2.49% 3.00% 2.19% 2.29% 1.83% 2.00% 1.49% 1.64% 0.98% 1.19% 1.00% 0.00% East Renfrewshire East Renfrewshire Scotland 2001 Scotland 2011 Council 2001 Council 2011

% provision of unpaid care 1-19 hrs % provision of unpaid care 20-49 hrs % provision of unpaid care 50+hrs

Source: Scotland Census 2011

In the census, a person is described as a provider of unpaid care if he or she looks after or gives help or support to a family member, friend, neighbour or other person because of long-term physical or mental ill health or disability, or problems related to old age.

The graph above shows that the nature of providing unpaid care is changing in East Renfrewshire. The length of unpaid care being provided every week has increased. The percentage of unpaid care totalling 20 hours or more each week has risen by 0.9 per cent. Overall the amount of unpaid care provided in East Renfrewshire is one per cent higher than the national average.

36 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

11.0 Deprivation

11.1 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD)

The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) provides one of the most detailed and targeted assessments of people in deprivation in Scotland; this defines deprivation along seven dimensions: • Employment • Income • Health • Education • Crime • Geographic access to services • Housing

There are 122 data zones (small population units) in total across the East Renfrewshire area and of these there are 8 data zones that are amongst 20 per cent of the most deprived areas within Scotland.

Table 10: Deprivation data zones (SIMD 2016)

8 data zones that are amongst 20% of the most deprived areas within Scotland (2016) Community Datazone Intermediate Zone Name Rank Population (2016) Barrhead S01008316 Dunterlie, East Arthurlie and Dovecotehall 0-5% most deprived 645 Barrhead S01008315 Dunterlie, East Arthurlie and Dovecotehall 5-10% most deprived 683 Barrhead S01008313 Dunterlie, East Arthurlie and Dovecotehall 10-15% most deprived 844 Barrhead S01008314 Dunterlie, East Arthurlie and Dovecotehall 10-15% most deprived 626 Barrhead S01008309 Dunterlie, East Arthurlie and Dovecotehall 10-15% most deprived 752 Barrhead S01008326 Auchenback 15-20% most deprived 1,033 Barrhead S01008323 Auchenback 15-20% most deprived 760 Neilston S01008299 West Neilston and Uplawmoor 15-20% most deprived 797 6,140

Map of East Renfrewshire according to 2016 Index of Multiple Deprivation

Reproduced by permission of on behalf of HMSO. (C) Crown Copyright and database right 2018. All Rights Reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence no. 100023382 2018, East Renfrewshire Council. 37 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 11.2 | Working age benefits

The introduction of Universal Credit and the transfer of multiple benefits to Social Security Scotland will mean that these numbers are likely to change in the future as some benefits are change.

2,679 people across East Renfrewshire receive Employment Support Allowance (DWP, 2019). That’s equivalent to around 4.7 per cent of people aged 16 to 64. Around 28 per cent of ESA claimants have been in receipt of this benefit for between 2 and 5 years and a further 45 per cent of these claims have been running more than 5 years. ESA claimants undergo a medical assessment and are then placed into two categories; work-related activity group; and support group. People in the support group would not be expected to make a return to work as their long term illness or disability prevents them from doing so. Almost two thirds of the support group are aged 45 and over.

On average, 750 people in East Renfrewshire claimed Jobseekers Allowance or Universal Credit with a requirement to look for work each month between July 2018 and June 2019. In June 2019 this figure had risen to 900. However, the DWP acknowledges that as Universal Credit continues to roll out, the number of people recorded as being on the Claimant Count is therefore likely to rise. With a claimant rate of 1.7 per cent of East Renfrewshire’s working age population, this is around half of the Scottish average rate of 3.1 per cent and is also the lowest claimant rate in mainland Scotland (ONS, October 2019).

Graph 33. Average Claimant Count level in East Renfrewshire (July – June)

900

800 756 750 697 700 670 630 600

500

400

300

200

100

0 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

Source: ONS Clamant Count, June 2019 11.3 | Disability Living Allowance (Personal Independence Payments)

In November 2018, there were 2,640 Disability Living Allowance (DLA) claimants living in

East Renfrewshire. Around 37 per cent of these claimants (970 people) are of working age (16-64 years old) whilst under 16’s and those aged 65+ make up 25 per cent and 38 per cent of DLA claimants respectively.

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 38 11.4 | Children in low income households

According to the latest figures (released December 2018) which relate to August 2016, there were 1,550 children in East Renfrewshire (8.2 per cent) living in low income households (below 60 per cent of national median income relative to household size and type). Seventy-three per cent of this group lived in a household headed by a lone parent. Only 22.5 per cent of all families with dependent children in East Renfrewshire are headed by a lone parent. The graph below shows how this has changed over time.

Graph 34. East Renfrewshire children in low income households

2,000 1,870 1,885 1,800 1,685 1,695 1,565 1,550 1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: HMRC, Children in Low Income Families, August 2016: Released 2018

East Renfrewshire has one of the lowest proportions of children living in low income households when compared with all other local authorities in Scotland; ranking 3rd of 32. The Shetland Islands recorded

6.5 per cent of children living in low income households whilst Glasgow City recorded Scotland’s highest levels of children living in low income households at 27.4 per cent.

Around 55% of children living in low income households live in the Levern Valley area (Barrhead, Neilston and Uplawmoor) and 45% live in the Eastwood area. However, this is disproportionate as only 23% of East Renfrewshire’s 0-19 population live in the Levern Valley area with 77% living in Eastwood.

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 39

Housing supply | 12.0

Local Development Plan | 12.1

The Local Development Plan (LDP) sets out the long term strategy for East Renfrewshire and the policies and proposals required to deliver this. The Proposed Plan will guide where and how new homes, jobs, infrastructure and investment are provided and how the area could change. Together with the Approved Glasgow and Clyde Valley Strategic Development Plan (July 2017) referred to as ‘Clydeplan’, these documents form the basis on which all planning applications require to be determined.

The current LDP was adopted in June 2015 and is currently under review. LDP2 will replace the Adopted Plan and cover the period up-to 2029 and beyond. The Proposed LDP2 is currently at its public consultation stage.

The provision of new homes is one of the most important elements of the LDP. In preparing LDP2 the Housing Land Requirements for each Local Authority across the Clydeplan region have been reassessed. A revised Strategic Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA 2015) provides housing estimates up to 2029 for each Local Authority. From these estimates Housing Supply Targets (HSTs) have been prepared. These targets are also set out in the Council’s Local Housing Strategy.

To accord with Scottish Planning Policy (SPP), 15% generosity has then been added to the HSTs at the Clydeplan level to produce the Housing Land Requirement for each Local Authority. This is to ensure a generous supply of land is provided. The outcomes of this assessment replace the current housing targets set out in LDP1.

Clydeplan sets out our housing requirements to 2029 across all tenures. The Council is required to provide 4350 homes during the period 2012-29 (3,470 private and 880 affordable homes).

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 40

New housing completions in East Renfrewshire | 12.2

Graph 35. Housing completions in East Renfrewshire by year 400 349 350 313 299 300 269 242 250

200 184 156 150

100

50

0 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Source: East Renfrewshire Housing Land Database

Graph 36. Housing completions 2012/13 to 2018/19 split by Housing Market Area (HMA)

350 Levern 296 Valley 300 280

250 238 236 231

200

146 150

95 89 100 77 53 50 31 19 10 11 0 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Source: East Renfrewshire Housing Land Database

Since 2012/13 there have been 1812 completions of which 1507 have contributed to the private sector requirements. The average all tenure build rate is 259 per annum. 84 per cent of these units were located in the Eastwood area.

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 41 12.3 | Meeting Housing Supply Targets

The Council is required to undertake an annual update of its housing land supply and prepare a Housing Land Audit (HLA). The HLA sets out the planning status and future build rates for housing sites. The annual programming for all sites is set out in Graph 37 and is based upon the 2019 HLA. This figure demonstrates that the LDP will provide 3,374 units during the period 2019-2029.

Graph 37. LDP Programming 2019/20-2028/29

450 425 409 397 389 400

350 334 313 328 300 280 281

250 218 200

150

100

50

0 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29

Source: East Renfrewshire Housing Land Audit 2019

As explained above the LDP must meet the Housing Land Requirements of Clydeplan (4350 units 2012-29). The Plan will provide 5186 units by 2029 (completions 2012-19 of 1,812 (Graph 36) and future programming of 3,374 (Graph 37) during the period 2019-29. This provides a surplus of 836 units and will clearly meet our housing land requirements.

Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 42 Housing tenure | 12.4

Table 11. Stock and Households by Tenure

Dwellings

Eastwood Levern Valley East Renfrewshire

Council 1,035 1,900 2,935 Social 575 1,046 1,621 Landlord/ Other Affordable Private (owned and 1,749 846 2,595 rented)

Owner Occupied 25,348 7,742 33,090 Total 28,780 11,564 40,344

Source: East Renfrewshire Housing Management / Data Systems 2019

The East Renfrewshire area has around 40, 000 dwellings of which two thirds (71.3 per cent) are located in the Eastwood sub area.

East Renfrewshire is distincti ve due to its very high levels of owner occupation. 82 per cent compared to 62 per cent across Scotland. In Eastwood, levels of owner occupation are considerably higher at almost 90 per cent of all households. This presents considerable challenges for those seeking affordable housing in the local area. Rented accommodation numbers have increased from 6,530 to 7, 151 dwelling , of which one third of these are private rented dwellings, with the remainder in the social rented sector. The Council has just under 3,000 houses for rent with more than half of these within the Levern Valley sub-area (64.7 per cent). The Barrhead settlement area also has the highest proportion of properties sold under Right to Buy legislation, around 1,600. The opportunities to access affordable housing in Levern Valley are much greater; however the current transport and other links between Levern Valley and Eastwood do not allow people to move between areas easily.

Table 12. Private Sector Rental Properties 2011-2019

Location Number of Properties per area as at 30 March PRS % Change 2011 to 2019 2011 2014 2016 2019 Newton Mearns 545 705 721 758 39% Barrhead 424 609 633 670 58% Clarkston / Busby 219 296 351 380 74% Giffnock 172 236 242 236 37% Eaglesham 102 131 154 174 71% Thornliebank 87 133 157 157 80% Neilston 88 128 138 149 69% Uplawmoor 8 6 11 14 75% Totals 1645 2244 2407 2538 54% Source: Housing registrations data held by Housing, 2019

Landlords were first required to be registered from 2006 in order to regulate private sector properties. At this tim e the Council estimated that there were around 900 private lets. This increased to 1,645 properties by 2011 and 2,538 properties as at April 2019.

43 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

As the table on the previous page shows, there has been a marked increase in private rented sector (PRS) properties across East Renfrewshire from 2011 to 2019. The largest increases are found in the areas of Clarkston/Busby and Thornliebank, with 60 per cent and 80 per cent increases in PRS properties respectively over the six year period.

There is a continuing high demand for private sector rental family accommodation in the Eastwood area. Sixty- five per cent of PRS stock in Thornliebank are tenemental properties and 97 per cent of those have at least 3 bedrooms. If detached and semi-detached properties are combined they account for 32 per cent of all PRS stock across Newton Mearns, and detached homes with 4 or more bedrooms account for 95 per cent of all detached PRS stock. Giffnock also has similar figures with 31 per cent of all stock being either detached or semi-detached.

Newton Mearns and Giffnock have the largest proportion of 2 bedroom PRS properties, possibly reflecting a requirement for more affordable private rental homes to house young or smaller families.

Thirty-eight per cent of PRS properties in the Clarkston/Busby area have at least 4 bedrooms, while 89 per cent have at least 3 bedrooms. 89 per cent of PRS properties in Eaglesham also have a minimum of 3 bedrooms while for Thornliebank the figure rises to 95 per cent.

Graph 38. Private Sector rentals by area 2019 (Source: Planning database)

44 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Housing sales| 12.5

Graph 39: House purchases and in-migration in 2017 (Glasgow focus) Analysis of the origin of purchasers shows that of the 1,461 sales in 2017, 46 per cent were moves within East Renfrewshire. A further 30 per cent of buyers came from the Glasgow area and the remaining 24 per cent came from other authority areas with proportion of purchasers from South Lanarkshire representing the next largest group accounting for 6 per cent of all sales.

Table 13: Private sector sales trends by settlement areas, (2014-2017 combined)

Area Sales % of all East Lower Median Upper Renfrewshire Quartile Quartile Sales Eaglesham/Waterfoot 387 5.9 £139,087 £200,946 £308,349 Thornliebank & Giffnock 1,293 19.7 £158,623 £219,544 £306,506

Busby/Netherlee/Clarkston 1,435 21.9 £184,082 £227,497 £279,547 Newton Mearns 2,355 35.9 £209,391 £279,795 £361,718 Barrhead 777 11.8 £88,690 £113,915 £151,254 Neilston/Uplawmoor 316 4.8 £101,967 £133,652 £180,643 Eastwood 5,470 83.3 £182,644 £241,322 £316,992 Levern Valley 1,093 16.7 £92,288 £119,265 £159,219 East Renfrewshire 6,563 100 £162,030 £213,475 £280,997

Source: East Renfrewshire Housing Management / Data Systems 2019 The table above shows the distinction between the average sale prices between areas of Eastwood and Levern Valley. Median and upper quartile prices in Eastwood are around double those recorded in the Levern Valley. Across East Renfrewshire the average sale price has increased from the previous period (2009-2013) however, the greatest rise has been (34%) in the lowest quartile. The median sale price increased by 14% and the upper quartile sale price rose by 1%. This indicates that there could be less choice for people on lower incomes when deciding where to live.

45 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire

Travel and work | 13.0 Travel | 13.1

Compared with all other council areas, East Renfrewshire has 3rd equal highest average cars per household (1.32 cars per household) and 4th highest for those who travel to work by car or van and it is a rising trend..

Travelling to work by train has grown in popularity in East Renfrewshire increasing from 7.7 per cent in 2001 to 9.5 per cent in 2011, this was the highest proportion of any other council area.

46 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire Employment| 13.2

Using the 2011 Census data, 28,265 people commute out of East Renfrewshire to work in other areas and 7,660 people commute into East Renfrewshire. Only 18 per cent of the people who live in East Renfrewshire work in the area.

Graph 40. People who live in East Renfrewshire – where do they work

Graph 41. People who work in East Renfrewshire – where do they live

47 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire East Renfrewshire has the highest proportion of AB social grade (these are individuals who are employed in higher or intermediate management and similar positions) across whole of Scotland and one of the highest C1 (these are individuals who are employed in junior management, administrative roles or similar) proportions as well. Over the past 10 years AB and C1 have both risen (unlike other councils) and so has the amount of skilled manual workers (which is a national trend). There is a rising percentage of people working in public administration, education and health with distribution, hotels and restaurants the next highest. Manufacturing jobs have declined significantly and financial, real estate professional jobs have reduced slightly.

Difference in social grade for East Renfrewshire between 2001 and 2011 (NRS Census) 40 34.1 35 33.1 32.1 32.1

30 26.1 25 20 16.4 16.4 15 9.7 % social % grade 10 5 0 DE Semi-skilled AB Higher and C1 Supervisory, and unskilled intermediate clerical, junior manual workers; C2 Skilled manual managerial/admi managerial/admi on state benefit, workers nistrative/profess nistrative/profes unemployed, ional sional lowest grade workers East Ren 2001 33.1 34.1 16.4 16.4 East Ren 2011 32.1 32.1 9.7 26.1

Industry people work in (who live in East Renfrewshire) 2011 2001

A, B, D, E. , energy and water 2.3% 2.3%

C. Manufacturing 6.1% 11.1%

F. Construction 6.6% 6.2%

G, I. Distribution, hotels and restaurants 20.3% 19.7%

H, J. Transport and communication 7.6% 6.3%

K, L, M, N. Financial, real estate, professional and administrative 18.1% 19.8% activities

O, P, Q. Public administration, education and health 34.5% 29.5%

R, S, T, U. Other 4.6% 4.9%

48 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 14.0 | Did you know?

Females born today in East Renfrewshire can enjoy the highest life expectancy rates in Scotland and males can enjoy the 2nd highest life expectancy rates in Scotland expecting to live to 83.7 for women and 80.5 for men. In 1911, Scottish life expectancy was 53 years for a women and 50 years for a man.

If you were born in 2018 in East Renfrewshire, your name is most likely to be Jack for a boy and Holly, Isla or Sophie if you are a girl.

Will live until 80.5 Marry at age 33 Will live until 83.7 Have first child at 33 Marry at age 31 Buy first house at 33 Have first child at 30 Buy first house at 33

6 in every 100 is aged under 5 16 in every 100 is school age (5 -16) 60 in every 100 is working age 20 in every 100 is aged 65 or over with 3 in every 100 aged over 85 Who is East Renfrewshire?

Average household size 2.42 7 in every 100 live in a household of 5 or more people 34 in every 100 are married

30 in every 100 live alone

52 in every 100 48 in every 100 Female male

6 in every 100 is from a minority ethnic group

49 Planning for the Future of East Renfrewshire 15.0 | Main sources of information | Links

POPULATION Data Source Link Mid-Year Population Estimates National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- data/statistics/statistics-by- theme/population/population-estimates Population Projections for Scottish National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- Areas (2016-based) data/statistics/statistics-by- theme/population/population-projections/sub- national-population-projections/2016-based BIRTHS Babies First Names National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital- events/names/babies-first-names/babies-first-names- 2017 Births National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital- events/births/births-time-series-data DEATHS Death Rates National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital- events/deaths/deaths-time-series-data Life Expectancy National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life- expectancy-in-scottish-areas/time-series-data MIGRATION Migration to and from Administrative National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- Areas data/statistics/statistics-by- theme/migration/migration-statistics/total-migration- to-or-from-scotland Local Area Migration National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and- data/statistics/statistics-by- theme/migration/migration-statistics/local-area- migration EDUCATION Pre-School Provision Scottish Government Pupil Census http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/School- Education/Datasets Primary School Provision Scottish Government Pupil Census http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/School- Education/Datasets Secondary School Provision Scottish Government Pupil Census http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/School- Education/Datasets ETHNICITY Minority Ethnic Population Scotland’s Census 2011 (Release 2A) http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/ RELIGION Religion Population Scotland’s Census 2011 (Release 2A) http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/ PLANNING Housing Requirements and East Renfrewshire Local Development http://www.eastrenfrewshire.gov.uk/local- Completions Plan development-plan

POPULATION

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

EDUCATION

50 www.eastrenfrewshire.gov.uk/planningforthefuture

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