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OJGG Vol 2 No 2.Indb Oxford Journal on Good Governance Volume 2 ~ Number 2 August 2005 Benita Ferrero-Waldner Building Walls or on the role of the EU in the peace process Mending Fences? Michael Ancram on opportunities and risks in the new era The Middle East Peace Process Beyond Israeli Disengagement Naomi Chazan on the promises and pitfalls of the road ahead Yossi Mekelberg on the domestic repercussions in Israel and others Simon Roughneen, Editor rd ISSUE 3 opportunity Advertising in the Oxford Journal on Good Governance lets you exclusively target those that shape the public agen- da. Our select list of readers is carefully maintained and amended for each is- sue, and this focus ensures their inter- est. Why not benefi t from their guar- anteed a� ention? If you want to communicate your message to those that ma� er, visit our website at www.oxfordgover- nance.org/journal for more infor- mation. Or write to me at andre. [email protected] to place an advertisement or talk about an ex- clusive sponsorhip agreement. your window of André Nilsen Publisher Editor-in-Chief Rajnish Jaiswal Managing Editor Simon Roughneen Editor The Oxford Journal Published by the Oxford Council on Good Governance on Good Governance Board of Directors Andre Nilsen Will Marshall Copyright Chairman Vice Chairman Managing Director Director, Science Section All rights reserved. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes Anna Bunting Sarah McCosker of research or private study or Business Director Advice Director criticism or review, as permitted Barbara Mollin Holger Osterrieder under the UK Copyright, Design Director, Law Section Director, Government Section and Patents Act 1988, no part of this publication may be repro- Asle Toje Alex Cobam Director, Security Section Director, Economy Section duced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means with- Fabien Curto-Millet Abid Raja out the prior permission in writ- Non-Executive Director Non-Executive Director ing of the Publisher. Authorisa- tion to photocopy items for the purpose of policy-making and Board of Advisors governance is granted by the Chris Patten Louis Michel Publisher. Joseph Rotblat László Kovács José Ramos-Horta Jacques Barrot Jody Williams Giuliano Amato Disclaimer Hans Blix Joseph Stiglitz The Oxford Council on Good Governance cannot be held re- Mohamed ElBaradei Joseph Nye sponsible for errors or any con- Donald Johnston Elmar Brok sequences arising from the use of information contained in this Margot Wallström Andrew Moravcsik journal. The views and opinion Benita Ferrero-Waldner Stanley Hoffmann expressed do not necessarily re- fl ect those of the Oxford Council Joaquín Almunia Crispin Tickell on Good Governance, neither does the publication of adver- tisements constitute any en- The Oxford Council on Good Governance is an independent, non-partisan, and dorsement by the OCGG of the non-profi t think tank registered in England as a private company limited by products or services advertised. guarantee. Company number: 04964367. www.oxfordgovernance.org/journal Foreword ........................................................................................7 by Rajnish Jaiswal Introduction ...................................................................................9 by Simon Roughneen Good Governance and the Middle East Peace Process: the EU’s approach .........................................................................13 by Benita Ferrero-Waldner Contents The Israeli-Palestinian Confl ict: Prospects for Peace .....................17 by Michael Ancram Change Without Resolution ..........................................................21 by Naomi Chazan Will Disengagement Lead to Big-Bang Realignment? ................... 25 by Yossi Mekelberg Addressing the Root Cause of the Arab-Israeli Confl ict ................31 Table of Table by Caroline B. Glick Confronting Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East .................. 37 by Emily B. Landau One Law, One Army: A Strategy for Palestinian Disarmament ............................................................................... 43 by Haim Malka Disengagement – From the Roadmap? The Flawed Logic of Uni-Nationalism ......................................................................49 by Simon Roughneen 2nd ISSUE Foreword Rajnish Jaiswal At a time when we all too o� en are Summary harshly reminded of the human costs of On the same day as Israel the confl ict and the fragility of the peace embarks on the process of process between Israel and Palestine, the disengagement from Gaza, latest issue of the Oxford Journal on Good the Oxford Council on Good Governance explores the likely impact of Governance publishes a new Mr Sharon’s decision to withdraw troops issue of the Oxford Journal and se� lers from Gaza. The pullout has on Good Governance that ex- been hailed as ‘brave move’ but it is also plores the likely impact of the his biggest political gambit yet faced with Israeli pullout on the Middle an ever growing faction of dissenters East peace process, one of within his own party. the key issues on the global agenda of good governance. What happens next might well decide the future course of the peace process in the Middle East. Many hope that this will About the Author usher in new chapter of dialogue and am- Dr Rajnish Jaiswal is the Man- ity between these neighbours and end the aging Editor of the Oxford violence on both sides of the border. What- Journal on Good Governance. ever the outcome, this initiative from Tel A qualifi ed physician, he is a Aviv will certainly change the dynamics Felix Scholar at the University of the pursuit of the Roadmap. of Oxford and a visiting fellow at Massachusetts General Hos- What happens in Palestine might also pital at Harvard University. aff ect what happens in Iraq, Kashmir, Chechnya and other venues of confl ict Oxford Journal on Good Governance - Vol 2 No 2 © 2005 The Oxford Council on Good Governance 127 Rajnish Jaiswal where extremist Islamism is a dimension. With the likes of Hamas being elected to offi ce, is democratic representation a viable solution to Islamist terrorism? Is it conceivable that the militant groups in Pal- estine one day could emulate the IRA and pursue a non-violent and peaceful path to political infl uence? Only time will tell. At the Oxford Council for Good Governance, we have made an at- tempt to understand the implications of the Gaza withdrawal for the Middle East peace process by inviting leading experts and high-level policy-makers from around the world to re-examine the past, present and future of one of the longest running and bloodiest confl icts in modern history in the light of the Israeli disengagement. The Oxford Journal on Good Governance thereby remains dedi- cated to its mission of presenting cu� ing edge analysis and action- able advice on the key issues of public policy and current aff airs. The purpose of the Council and this Journal is to equip those at the com- manding heights of politics and government with ideas, knowledge, frameworks, and solutions that enable good governance. The Oxford Council on Good Governance will continue working on both Israeli-Palestinian relations and other critical issues in the Middle East, including postwar reconstruction in Iraq and WMD non-proliferation in Iran, in the Advice Program on Eff ective Multi- lateralism in the OCGG Security Section. 8 The Oxford Journal on Good Governance Introduction Simon Roughneen With Israeli disengagement from the Summary Gaza strip imminent, the Oxford Council How will the Israeli departure on Good Governance have taken the op- from Gaza affect the peace portunity to publish a Journal issue exam- initiative in the Middle East? ining the state of Israeli-Palestinian rela- The OCGG, along with lead- tions from a number of viewpoints. ing experts and policy mak- ers, analyses vital issues such Featuring contributions from policy- as Palestinian security reform, makers, politicians and researchers from Israeli political realignment, the region, and from the international com- the role of the EU and the un- munity, this series of short essays looks at derlying causes of the Israeli- the post-Arafat political landscape in the Palestinian confl ict. The views Middle East. expressed in the contribu- tions are those of the authors, As well as giving pointers on ways for- while the policy recommen- ward for political progress between Israel dations are to be attributed and the Palestinian Authority a� er dis- to the OCGG alone. engagement, some of the crucial regional and intra-national changes and dynam- ics receive a� ention. These include Pal- About the Author estinian security reform, Israeli political Simon Roughneen is an Ana- realignment, the role of the EU in devel- lyst in the Security Section of oping governance in the Palestinian Au- the OCGG. thority, and analyses of the underlying causes of the Israeli-Palestinian confl ict. Oxford Journal on Good Governance - Vol 2 No 2 © 2005 The Oxford Council on Good Governance 129 Simon Roughneen However, cautionary notes abound, with our high-profi le contrib- utors reminding us of the many internal and international dilemmas and pitfalls facing Israelis, Palestinians, and the international com- munity if the current phase is to be transformed into re-engagement with the Roadmap for peace. While the focus in the few past months has been on disengagement and on reform in the Palestinian Territories, a peace process must re- main on the horizon if the current political initiatives in and between Israel and the Palestinian Authority are to be sustainable. The months since the death of Yasser Arafat has seen many positive developments for the immediate future in the Middle East. French President Jacques Chirac called disengagement ‘a brave move’ on the eve of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s visit to Paris on July 26. This is true – Sharon has made his domestic position in Israel much less secure. However, if this is to have any long-term eff ect on security and peacemaking in the region, then disengagement needs to be co-ordi- nated with the PA, who will of course assume some control over the territory once the Israelis remove the se� lers. A� er disengagement, the focus will return to Israeli policy vis-à-vis the West Bank and Jerusalem.
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