Report of the Working Group on Statistical Aspects of Environmental Monitoring (WGSAEM)
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ICES WGSAEM Report 2007 ICES Marine Habitat Committee CM 2007/MHC:02 REF. ACME Report of the Working Group on Statistical Aspects of Environmental Monitoring (WGSAEM) 12–16 March 2007 Paris, France International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer H. C. Andersens Boulevard 44–46 DK-1553 Copenhagen V Denmark Telephone (+45) 33 38 67 00 Telefax (+45) 33 93 42 15 www.ices.dk [email protected] Recommended format for purposes of citation: ICES. 2007. Report of the Working Group on Statistical Aspects of Environmental Monitoring (WGSAEM), 12–16 March 2007, Paris, France. CM 2007/MHC:02. 68 pp. For permission to reproduce material from this publication, please apply to the General Secretary. The document is a report of an Expert Group under the auspices of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and does not necessarily represent the views of the Council. © 2007 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea ICES WGSAEM Report 2007 | i Contents Executive summary.......................................................................................................... 1 1 Opening of the meeting ........................................................................................... 2 2 Adoption of the agenda ........................................................................................... 2 3 Terms of Reference.................................................................................................. 2 4 Develop and review tools for assessing and improving quality assurance of the data generating process..................................................................................... 3 4.1 Data quality of Swedish water quality data and the impact on trend detection .......................................................................................................... 3 4.2 Tools for Data Quality Assurance ................................................................... 4 4.3 Analysis on the decay of persistent organic pollutants in stored cod-liver data and consequences for an environmental sample bank.............................. 7 4.4 Comments to ICES STGQAB: reviewing proposed revison of Part B of the COMBINE manual .................................................................................... 9 4.4.1 Comments on the section “measurement uncertainty” ....................... 9 4.4.2 Comments on the section “data validation”........................................ 9 5 Provide further advice on methods for temporal, spatial, and integrated assessments of contaminants in sediments and biological effects and inputs ... 10 5.1 Modelling imposex data in Nucella lapillus.................................................. 11 5.2 Modelling less-thans in the OSPAR MON assessments................................ 13 5.3 A simulation-based approach to facilitate the design of eutrophication surveys........................................................................................................... 14 5.4 Assessment of discharges and activity concentrations of radioactive substances...................................................................................................... 21 5.5 Use of Rtrend for INPUT data, experiences of Sweden ................................ 27 6 Continue work on statistical aspects in the development of environmental indicators and classifications ................................................................................ 29 6.1 Using indicators to assess impacts................................................................. 29 6.2 Statistical principles for ecological status classification of WFD monitoring ..................................................................................................... 30 7 Any other business................................................................................................. 30 8 Recommendations.................................................................................................. 31 9 Close of meeting..................................................................................................... 32 Annex 1: List of participants ....................................................................................... 33 Annex 2: Agenda........................................................................................................... 34 Annex 3: WGSAEM terms of reference for the next meeting .................................. 35 Annex 4: Recommendations ........................................................................................ 36 Annex 5: Modelling VDSI in Nucella lapillus............................................................. 37 Annex 6: Dealing with less-thans in the OSPAR MON assessments of contaminants in biota ............................................................................................ 46 ii | ICES WGSAEM Report 2007 Annex 7: OSPAR periodic evaluations of progress towards the objectives of the radioactive substances strategy: a summary centered on statistical methods, some samples analysis ........................................................................... 57 ICES WGSAEM Report 2007 | 1 Executive summary 1 ) WGSAEM agreed on the need for data flow quality assurance (QA). This was addressed in several presentations: • An assessment of Swedish nutrient monitoring data, where apparent trends might have been caused by changes in laboratory practices (see Chapter 4.1 and Chapter 8 Recommendations); • Presentation of several tools for testing the plausibility of measured metals and PAH’s in suspended matter of fresh water rivers, which takes into account the correlations between compounds (see Chapter 4.2); • An investigation of systematic changes in observed levels of persistent organic pollutants (POP) in stored samples at -20°C (see Chapter 4.3). • Review of the proposed HELCOM Combine Manual; request by the ICES Working Group STGAQB. 2 ) In several presentations it became clear that there is a need to have the original data instead of aggregated data to do the proper statistical analysis. Original data are necessary to reveal the structure of the data and to give the statistician the possibility to check the assumptions on which the analysis of aggregated data are based. The following examples clarified this: • In an assessment of temporal trends in imposex levels in Nucella lapillus, using the Vas Deferens Sequence Index (VDSI), the variance-mean relationship used in the model of aggregated data could only be validated by using the original individual data (see Chapter 5.1, Chapter 8 Recommendations and Annex 5); • A presentation used high frequency data from a smart-buoy to explore different monitoring designs for measuring chlorophyll-a and nitrates. In particular, the data were used to show the performance of ‘normal’ in-situ monitoring, which consists of taking a few measurements in a year (see Chapter 5.3). 3 ) In many assessments, methods have to be adjusted to deal with less-than measurements. Two presentations addressed this issue: • A method for dealing with less-than measurements in the OSPAR MON assessments of contaminants in biota (see Chapter 5.2, Chapter 8 Recommendations and Annex 6); • Assessment of discharges and activity concentrations of radioactive substances (see Chapter 5.4, Chapter 8 Recommendations and Annex 7). 4 ) WGSAEM discussed the group’s future. Due to the low number of attendees there is some fear that this group could be easily dissolved. It is therefore important that ICES makes a request to the Delegates to search for new WGSAEM members. WGSAEM is extremely useful as a platform to discuss and agree on statistical assessment techniques for the ICES and OSPAR community (see other business). 2 | ICES WGSAEM Report 2007 1 Opening of the meeting Richard Duin opened the meeting of the Working Group on Statistical Aspects of Environmental Monitoring (WGSAEM) at 14:00 on Monday 12 March 2007. He welcomed the participants to the EDF (Electricité de France) R&D, Paris, France and thanked Philippe Nonclercq from EDF for all his support in organising the meeting, for having a guided tour in the famous Musée d’Orsay and for offering us a dinner. He welcomed two quests from IRSN, France, Benidicte Briand and Jerôme Guillevic, and the new member, Koen Parmentier, from Belgium. 2 Adoption of the agenda Several background documents were submitted for discussion. These were allocated and discussed under the appropriate agenda item. The agenda was agreed and is attached as Annex 2. The list of participants is given in Annex 1. 3 Terms of Reference The general terms of reference (ICES C. Res. 1986/2:25) originally formulated for WGSAEM were to: 1 ) develop statistical protocols for the determination of temporal and spatial trends in the concentration and distribution of contaminants in marine biota, sediments and sea water; 2 ) analyse data for the elucidation of temporal and spatial trends in contaminants in marine biota, sediments and sea water; 3 ) provide statistical advice with respect to other monitoring issues, as required; 4 ) liaise with the Statistics Committee as appropriate (now the Marine Habitat Committee). Specific tasks for the 2007 WGSAEM meeting (2006/2/MHC02) are: a ) develop and review tools for assessing and improving quality assurance of the data generating process; b ) provide further advice on methods for temporal, spatial, and integrated assessments of contaminants in sediments and biological effects and inputs; c ) continue work