WINTER 2002

Building an Asia PacificObserver Community Among the crucial questions in Asia is how boldly an engaged, internationalist China may act, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly told delegates to the Asia Pacific Parliamentary Forum (APPF). “As seen at APEC in Shanghai and as WTO membership demonstrates, James there is a confident future for China as it joins the community of leading nations of the world,” he said. Kelly spoke on U.S. policy toward the Asia Pacific Kelly: region at the 10th annual meeting of the regional forum in January in , where the U.S. Policy Toward East-West Center served as secretariat for the event. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly (L) with the Asia Pacific Region Without dispute, Congressman Douglas Bereuter (R-NE) and Senator the Sino-American Daniel Akaka (D-HI) at the APPF meeting in Honolulu. relationship has experienced ups and downs over the last year, and many inside and outside of Asia expressed “The United States and China enter 2002 looking Inside apprehension, Kelly said. “I believe these concerns were forward to a rich dialogue in many areas, including exaggerated and they were certainly not based on some difficult ones such as human rights, freedom of Ambassador Yang: statements by the President or Secretary of State. There religious practices, non-proliferation, and strategic forces, Sunshine Policy is much consensus in the United States committed to including ballistic missiles and ballistic missile defense.” Most Viable Option trading with China and to a prosperous China.” Concerning Taiwan, he said “peaceful resolution” for Korean Peninsula Chinese officials frequently describe the U.S.-China is the sine qua non of U.S. policy and the three Sino- Page 3 relationship as “cooperative and constructive,” Kelly U.S. communiques continue to guide American said, noting he would add “‘candid,’ because we can policy, as well as the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. Afghanistan: speak freely about some areas where we may disagree. continued on page 2 The View from the Ground in Kabul Page 3 Cooperation Against Terrorism Binds Asia Pacific Parliamentarians New EWC At the 10th Asia Pacific Parliamentary Forum, the combat terrorism. The meeting called upon all members Leadership Program issue of terrorism was “the glue” that bound together to sign, ratify and implement as soon as possible for Early-Career delegates from 25 nations in the region. Parliamentarians relevant international conventions and protocols on Professionals passed 13 resolutions on topics from the Middle East terrorism, especially those relating to money-laundering. and Students peace process and global warming to gender equality Delegates called for all countries to seek solutions to Page 5 A and disaster management, but cooperation against a wide variety of political, economic and social problems, terrorism was the main focus. including poverty and regional conflicts, which terrorists Publications in Review They were unanimous in condemning terrorism in could take advantage of to justify their attacks. Page 6 all its forms — international, regional and local — and The delegates met in Honolulu from January 6 to 9, encouraging cooperation with the United Nations to with the East-West Center serving as host organization Tom Plate on and secretariat. It was the first time the annual meet- U.S. Foreign Policy Delegates to Asia Pacific Parliamentary Forum. ing was held in the United States. Challenges in Asia Among those who addressed the forum were Page 7 Dennis Hastert, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives; Tom Daschle, U.S. Senate Majority Leader; Admiral Dennis Blair, Commander-in Chief, U.S. Pacific Command; and James Kelly, Assistant Secretary of State for Asian and Pacific Affairs. continued on page 2 2

James Kelly: U.S. Policy Toward the Asia Pacific Region continued from page 1 he said. “U.S. policy has no better idea for dealing with “China should know that it needs to earn Taiwan’s North Korea than President Kim Dae-jung’s constructive allegiance and not force it,” Kelly advised. “And the engagement or Sunshine Policy. remarkable cross-strait economic interaction going on “Tension on the peninsula is essentially an issue for now may well be able to show the way.” Koreans to resolve,” he said. “We support ’s He assured delegates that the United States policies of reconciliation and we are prepared to begin remains engaged and committed in Asia and thanked serious negotiations with North Korea — as Secretary the countries represented at the forum for their Powell puts it, ‘anytime, any place, without preconditions.’ support after the terrorist attacks of September 11. So far, North Korea has been unwilling to start talks, The war on terrorism is far from over, he said, although U.S. food aid continues as well as routine con- adding, “This cooperation against terrorism fits very tacts between the United States and North Korea. well with U.S. objectives toward the Asia Pacific. U.S. “We in Washington are also determined to keep the Asia Pacific policy is based overall on our tested trilateral policy coordination process going among Seoul, alliances in the region and it is enlarged by key and Washington,” Kelly said, with four meetings friendships. Both are enhanced by our committed held last year and another expected to take place soon. Assistant Secretary engagement with multilateral institutions, especially Indonesia. The United States is “exceptionally of State James Kelly APEC, ASEAN and ASEAN’s Regional Forum.” supportive” of President Megawati and the difficult Support of ASEAN has been an important and process of democratizing Indonesia, he said. “We support reemphasized element of U.S. policy toward the the territorial integrity of Indonesia and hope to assist the region, he said. “Yet we are mindful that ASEAN is very difficult task being pursued there whenever we can.” not a country, and bilateral relationships are a priority with each of the 10 members.” The Philippines. The United States is looking to He then elaborated on U.S. policy in the region: collaborate more closely than in the past with the Philippines, he added. “Perhaps to help train Philippine . “The U.S.-Japan alliance is the linchpin response in dealing with some local matters of terrorism, The East-West of U.S. security strategy in East Asia,” he said. Japan’s crime, kidnapping, that go on ...in addition to helping Center Observer response to the current campaign in Afghanistan is that country reach the economic state it so richly is a quarterly newsletter welcome, including measures passed by the Diet to deserves.” published by the facilitate cooperation and the dispatching of self- In conclusion, Kelly said, “We respect the region’s East-West Center, defense maritime forces to the Indian Ocean. vitality and we try to listen carefully to its new and old a public non-profit The United States strongly supports Prime wisdom. We believe the United States is needed in Asia institution established Minister Koizumi’s efforts to reform and strengthen and that we are welcome there. More important, in our in 1960 to foster mutual Japan’s economy. “What actions Japan needs to take are own interests, America has to be involved in this vibrant understanding and for Japan to decide,” Kelly said. “But it is our belief part of the world. cooperation among that the best way to create a basis for renewed growth in “But American policy will continue to grope with the governments and Japan is to address the parallel problems of non-per- the complexities of how economic and security issues peoples of the Asia Pacific forming loans in the banking system and non-perform- interrelate, and how to encourage three big countries — region, including the ing assets in financial, corporate and state sectors.” China, India and Russia — to reach their enormous United States. Korean Peninsula. The alliance between the potential without being tempted to abuse power.” Volume 6, Number 1 United States and the Republic of Korea remains firm, Winter 2002 Charles E. Morrison, President Karen Knudsen, Director Cooperation Against Terrorism Binds Asia Pacific Parliamentarians Office of External Affairs continued from page 1 In his address, Blair noted the importance of For information, contact: “Our parliaments and the world must continue to international cooperation to defeat terrorism and other protect the freedoms and liberties that each of our pressing problems. “The Asia Pacific region does not have The East-West Center nations hold sacred,” Hastert said, in his remarks at well-developed arrangements for regional military 1601 East-West Road the opening of the forum. “The civilized and free cooperation. Yet, regional cooperation is the key to success Honolulu, HI 96848-1601 world must do as much to embody the principles we against these threats to the security of all of our citizens.” Telephone: 808-944-7111 proclaim, as we do to protect them. Each of us who In comments to delegates, EWC President Charles Fax: 808-944-7376 serves in a parliament must rethink our level of E. Morrison observed that regional cooperation in the E-mail: defense, security and intelligence expenditures and we Asia Pacific region is still relatively new. He raised the [email protected] must strengthen collective security arrangements.” question of “how to ensure greater and more regular Daschle assured the delegates that “the United influence of politicians and parliaments in the regional World Wide Web: States of America is determined to remain a strong cooperation processes?” http://www.EastWestCenter.org partner and active participant in the family of nations. While regional cooperation is here to stay, he said, “We Editor: Susan Yim The APPF is one tool that will allow us to continue still have much to do to realize the full potential of regional Design: Kennedy & Preiss that participation.” cooperation and make it meaningful to our publics.” 3

An engagement policy is the most viable option And he elaborated on the Sunshine Policy, the for reconciliation and ultimately reunification, policy of reconciliation and cooperation initiated during observed Sung Chul Yang, South Korea’s ambassador Kim Dae-jung’s presidency. It focuses on tasks and to the United States. problems that both North and South Korea “can easily AThe policy is not only good for both Koreas, he resolve and overcome, while setting aside intractable advised, but beneficial for interested parties throughout issues for future consideration and resolution,” he said. the region. “The Sunshine Policy has reduced tensions “It separates not only non-controversial from controver- on the Korean peninsula for the last four years and the sial problems, but civilian from government tasks, the tension level is at an all-time low,” he said. “Therefore, short-term from the long-term agenda, and the domestic any mishap to trigger tension on the Korean Peninsula from the international issues. Even among government would be harmful and disruptive tasks the policy differentiates security and military not only to South and North functions from those of other ministries and bureaus.” Ambassador Yang: Korea, but to the United States, No country wants an immediate collapse of Japan, China, Russia and the North Korea which would inevitably precipitate European Union, as well as other devastating consequences beyond the Korean Sunshine Policy countries.” Peninsula, Yang said. “The South Korean government Yang, an East-West Center will press forward in the quest of peaceful reconciliation alumnus, is a prominent political and cooperation between the two halves, ultimately Most Viable Option scientist and author with a distin- leading to a reunion of the nation.” guished career in academia and He noted that South Korea has encouraged allies politics. Before his appointment as ambassador in 2000, and friends to actively engage North Korea and, as a for Korean he served as a member of the Korean National Assembly result, over the past four years the North has and was president of the Unification and Policy Forum. established diplomatic relations with 19 countries, In January, he spoke at the East-West Center on “Peace including 13 of 15 European Union members. Peninsula and Security on the Korean Peninsula.” The Republic of Korea-U.S. defense alliance is He noted several significant events occurring this vital and South Korea’s security coordination and year involving South Korea, including: cooperation with the United States and Japan, The February summit meeting between presidents bilaterally and trilaterally, are crucial, he said. “My Kim Dae-jung and George W. Bush. government’s close cooperation with China and The co-hosting of the World Cup Soccer Russia, in particular, and other concerned countries Tournament with Japan, which provides “an around the world is also essential in maintaining peace opportunity for both nations to work closely together and stability in Northeast Asia and beyond.” to bury their unfortunate past and build a more In response to questions from the audience, Yang prosperous and peaceful region.” acknowledged that a significantly large percent of South Korean local elections in June and the North and South Koreans are of a post-Korean War presidential election in December. generation. “It will be a great task for the government Preparation for the celebration in the United as well as social leaders on both sides to properly States of next year’s 100th anniversary of Korean educate and socialize them so they will not forget the immigration to America. continued on page 4 Afghanistan: The View from the Ground in Kabul If the United States and the international years,” she said, but it’s also true that young men didn’t community don’t stay the course in Afghanistan, it will have the educational opportunities required to be another Somalia, suggests Ann Wright, political participate in governing the country. officer with the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. Programs in the refugee camps will continue, but I“This is a very fragile and delicate group that is other programs will begin in health, education and attempting to put their country back together,” she said. public works within Afghanistan. The United States The international community must recognize this and will focus on three primary areas: education, provide the training, education and medical programs agriculture and health, particularly women-related necessary for the rebuilding of Afghanistan, she said at a health and education-related issues, Wright said. “All briefing at the East-West Center in February. of our programs will be for all Afghan people, but we “Our role is to try to do everything we can to keep will make sure we will have plenty of programs for the tensions low, to try to get some developmental young women who have not had a chance to go to assistance in so the people of Afghanistan — the school the last seven or eight years.” ordinary folks who have suffered so tremendously over In her presentation Wright described the enormity of the last 25 years — can have things like education start the destruction in Kabul, the physical danger that remains again. We focus a lot on the fact that young girls and and the difficult work involved in reopening the U.S. Ann Wright women were not able to go to school during the Taliban continued on page 7 4

News in Brief

Supporting BOH Establishes Chair Japan-U.S. Journalists the Center for Pacific Economies Exchange Program Wali Osman joined the Six journalists from Japan and six from the United RECENT GRANTS AND CONTRACTS East-West Center as Bank of States participated in the Japan-U.S. Journalists Exchange Hawaii Senior Fellow and Chair program from Feb. 13-March 12. The program is spon- Research/ for Pacific Economies in January. sored by the East-West Center in cooperation with the Pacific Disaster Center The newly created position is Nihon Shinbun Kyokai in Tokyo and the International $99,500 funded through a $100,000 Center for Journalists in Washington, D.C. U.S. Agency for grant from Bank of Hawaii. The Japanese journalists visited the United States International Osman’s work will focus on and the American journalists visited Japan, then met at Development Pacific economies and will include the Center to discuss their experiences and exchange opinions about how media coverage by their countries $547,000 assessment of economic and Wali Osman Raytheon Company financial risk and market potential. can be improved. “Wali will be a strong asset to the East-West The Japanese journalists were from the Shimane Research/ Center,” said Michael E. O’Neill, Bank of Hawaii Nichi-Nichi Shimbun, the , the Nishi- Population & Health Chairman and CEO. “He is a highly regarded inter- Nippon Shimbun, the Chugoku Shimbun, the Chunichi $122,756 national economist whose economic reports for the Shimbun and . U.S. Agency for Pacific region have served as authoritative research The U.S. journalists were from the Pittsburgh International documents for government, business and educators.” Tribune-Review, Christian Science Monitor, Fort Development/ Since 1994, Osman has been the bank’s inter- Bend/Southwest Sun, Houston Community Newspapers, Abt Associates national economist with primary responsibility for Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Baltimore Sun. $500,000 analysis of the political, economic and financial The William & Flora condition of 14 Pacific island nations. 1st EWC International Hewlett Foundation Graduate Student Conference Seven Elected to EWC Alumni Board “Local/Global Relations in the Asia Pacific Region” Research/Environment Seven EWC alumni were elected to the Executive were explored in presentations from Asia, the Pacific, $59,400 Board of the East-West Center Association (EWCA), Europe and the United States, Feb. 21-23 at the East- American which comprises 35 chapters throughout the world. West Center. Prasenjit Duara, professor of history and Meteorological Society The EWCA is dedicated to involving its 46,000 East Asian languages and civilizations at the University $33,000 members in professional and cultural programs of Chicago, presented the keynote address. UH College of throughout the region. The association’s next major The conference was organized by EWC graduate Social Sciences event is an international conference on globalization students. Presenters came from various institutions, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in July. including Baylor University, University of California at Pacific Islands New board members are Dan Berman, Chance Berkeley, UCLA, Cornell University, University of Development Gusukuma and Loretta Pang of Hawaii; Seiko , Keio University, University of Michigan, $25,044 (FY 2001) Furuhashi of Japan; Surapone Virulrak of Thailand; University of Minnesota, University of Oxford, Sun Government of A. Seshan of India; and Amanda Ellis of Australia. Yat-Sen University, the University of Texas and the New Caledonia University of Hawaii. Education East West Fest 2002 Celebrates Asia Pacific Cultures $76,500 The East West Fest celebrated the culture and cuisine EWC Foundation/ of countries of the Asia Pacific region on Feb. 24 at the Ambassador Yang Pacific Rim Society EWC’s Hawaii Imin International Conference Center. continued from page 3 $57,176 The day-long festival included interactive craft remaining national task of uniting our people together,” Japan Government demonstrations, martial arts, games, music, exhibits he said. $500,000 and food from nearly 30 Asian and Pacific countries, One of Kim Dae-Jung’s enduring accomplish- Korea Foundation ranging from the United States to Kyrgyzstan, China ments, beyond the Sunshine Policy, is “rearranging the $16,000 to Fiji, Bhutan to Papua New Guinea. relationship with Japan,” Yang replied, in response to Pacific Cultural The Fest follows the tradition of the Center in questions about South Korea’s relations with Japan. Foundation promoting international cooperation and understanding, This year, for the first time, Japan and South Korea said coordinators Anthony Medrano, a master’s candidate will co-host the World Cup, with events taking place External Affairs/ in international relations from California, and Vijayan in cities in each country. “I hope this is simply not Arts Program Mumusamy, an MBA candidate from Malaysia. only a game but a good historic momentum for both $41,000 countries to work together in the future,” Yang said. EWC Foundation/ With regard to the Sunshine Policy, he said, “China Pacific Rim Society has been extremely cooperative and constructive.” In 2001, for the first time, South Korea’s trade exports to China exceeded exports to Japan. While the United States remains South Korea’s number one East-West Center students trading partner and Japan is number two in total trade in Japanese kimono at the volume, China exceeds Japan on the export side and East-West Fest. Yang predicted the gap is likely to widen. 5

In January, the first 25 participants in the new Asia viewpoints will shape the future of the region. “These Pacific Leadership Program began six months of study same people will be policymakers. Just think of the at the East-West Center. The innovative program offers implications if these people are policymakers. What an interactive experience to supplement educational and will happen to the world?” Iprofessional needs of early-career professionals and This interaction is an essential element of the graduate students with leadership potential. leadership program. “I’ve been very impressed with the Whether a professional or student, the program is chemistry of this group,” said Terry Bigalke, dean of designed so participants benefit from the exchange of EWC academic programs. “They came in and really different liked talking to each other in small groups or just points of through random interaction. They’re getting into a lot view and a of discussions about their own countries, sharing ideas. New EWC Leadership heightened I can tell by the comments they make in the awareness of classroom, these are extensions of references made perspectives outside the classroom. Program for Early-Career on core issues “They’re having to be more analytical and within the formulate ideas in a way that leads to getting at region. By underlying principles rather than stereotypes. That’s a Professionals and Students February, positive thing that’s coming out of this experience.” participants were engaging in lively discussions about democracy and institutions of democracy, domestic politics and political change, sovereignty and forms of democracy. They exchanged points of view about Asia Pacific Leadership Program different cultural approaches to leadership and Participants attend a core seminar on critical underlying differences and similarities. issues and a leadership seminar, participate in Bridgette See, a two-year veteran of broadcast group projects and experiential learning and can journalism in , says she appreciates the individualize study and research. They also interact exposure to people from the region. She has traveled with students, researchers, policymakers, to Chile, Tibet, Myanmar and China as a volunteer journalists and other professionals participating in who works with youth development groups, but this is EWC programs. At the end of the program, they do her first trip to the United States. three weeks of field study in the region. “There’s quite a lot of synergy,” she says of the In this first session, participants came from 15 sessions. “The eclectic mix of ideas allows us to really countries, including Bhutan, Cambodia, China, see other people’s perspectives. You develop a broader Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Nauru, Nepal, New regional perspective. And it builds up this network. It Zealand/Cook Islands, Papua New Guinea, the provides you with access.” Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and See hopes to become an overseas correspondent the United States. and she sees the knowledge she gains from the “The program’s graduates will leave the Center program as “a stepping stone to knowing more about with a broad regional perspective, knowledgeable EWC Dean of Academic the region’s problems.” about the societies and issues of the region and Programs, Terry Bigalke, Jane Lynn Capacio, a college instructor and trained to exercise leadership and promote with Chatwut Wangwon researcher in the Philippines with an interest in cooperation,” says Terry Bigalke, EWC academic from Thailand and politics and governance, applied to the program “to dean. “It’s expected that graduates will seek or Jane Capacio from the expand horizons.” This is her first time in the United return to positions in business, government, non- Philippines. States. governmental organizations and universities.” “I’m trying to listen,” she says, “I’m not just Students can complement their studies at hearing — but listening. In the Philippines, there are a their home educational institutions. The program lot of leaders who aren’t listening to what the majority particularly seeks to involve graduate students of the people are asking for.” from institutions in Asia and the Pacific region She also values the diversity of the participants in who might otherwise not have an opportunity to the program, “seeing things from different lenses. come to the United States. When you see advocates for different positions it helps Participants also are paired with a mentor in you understand events,” she says. “We have clashes in Hawaii’s business community who can introduce terms of opinions. We have passionate positions. We them to practical elements of leadership and a discuss issues as we eat, as we stroll. That’s how specific area of work, whether in business, social passionate we can be about issues so near to us, like services or academia. Bigalke says this element of recent history.” the program relies on much appreciated logistical Capacio says the intensity of the discussions has support from the Friends of the East-West Center made her wonder about how people with such strong and the EWC Association. The program was established through generous funding from the Freeman Foundation. 6

Publications in Review

Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: were implemented, and which of them achieved their goals? Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, edited by Andrew Were demographic outcomes a product only of the region’s Mason. Contemporary Issues in Asia and the Pacific. 2001. rapid economic development, or did population policies Stanford: Press. xxii, 503 pp. accelerate the transition to low fertility and slower The 15 essays in this volume address two broad sets of population growth? These questions are addressed through a issues. First, did rapid demographic change contribute to detailed examination of the experience between 1960 and East Asian economic development? Specifically, what aspects 1990 of six Asian economies: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, of the region’s development were influenced by such Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. demographic trends as economic growth, inequality and the Cloth, $85; paper, $29.95. Available online at economic status of women? Second, what was the role of http://www.sup.org or from Cambridge University Press population policy in East Asia? What policies and programs Distribution Center, (800)872-7423 / (914)937-9600.

Asia Pacific Security Outlook 1997-2001, edited by Richard W. countries surveyed is newly grouped in five-, three-, two-, or Baker, Christopher A. McNally, and Charles E. Morrison. one-year collections for 25 books in all. (The five-year 2001. Tokyo: Japan Center for International Exchange. collection for Malaysia includes the 1999 report on that This collection of Asia Pacific Security Outlook from 1997 to country, which is not contained in Asia Pacific Security 2001 offers readers a new format for reviewing and Outlook 2000.) researching the salient security issues in the region at the CD-ROM, $30 plus shipping/handling. Available worldwide closing of the century’s last decade. The five original editions outside Japan from Brookings Institution Press, of the Outlook are reproduced in toto, and each of the 20 http://www.brookings.org, (800)275-1447 / (202)797-6258.

“Déjà vu all over again?” Why Dialogue Won’t Solve the that simply pressuring the two sides to talk may be disastrous. Kashmir Dispute, by Arun R. Swamy. AsiaPacific Issues, No. In order to avoid such results, any effort to intervene in this 56, November 2001. Honolulu: East-West Center. 8 pp. dispute must be undertaken with an awareness of how it The deep differences over Kashmir that divide India and evolved, why it has been so difficult to resolve, and what Pakistan have so far proven intractable, and following kinds of solutions to it might realistically be pursued. September 11 the movement toward confrontation accelerated. Printed hard copy available for $2.50 plus shipping/handling There has never been a more urgent need for international from the East-West Center, [email protected]. attention to Kashmir. While diplomatic engagement seems Free downloadable PDF file located at necessary for a resolution of this dispute, past results indicate http://www.EastWestCenter.org/stored/pdfs/api056.pdf.

Putting the Pieces in Place for Japan’s Economic Recovery, by a gradual one that has been further hampered by the slump in Terutomo Ozawa. AsiaPacific Issues, No. 57. December the U.S. economy, dramatic changes are in motion, creating 2001. 8 pp. promising roles and opportunities for foreign investors as well Japan remains languishing in a state of economic stagnation, as potential for Japan to realize a new economic vitality. but that may change: market forces are now driving Japan to Printed hard copy available for $2.50 plus shipping/handling The Publications Office carry out major reforms. A market-oriented business environ- from the East-West Center, [email protected]. now sends e-mail announce- ment is crucial, and thus Japan is being propelled toward Free downloadable PDF file located at ments of new publications deregulation and institutional reform. Although the process is http://www.EastWestCenter.org/stored/pdfs/api057.pdf. to interested readers. If you would like to receive such announcements, Taiwan’s Presidential Politics: Democratization and Cross-Strait please send a message to decades, the Kuomintang (KMT) was turned out of power Relations in the Twenty-first Century, edited by Muthiah [email protected] and replaced by the opposition Democratic Progressive Alagappa. Taiwan in the Modern World. 2001. Armonk, with the word “subscribe” in Party (DPP) through a free and fair election. This volume New York: M.E. Sharpe. xiv, 312 pp. the Subject field. Please looks at the domestic and international implications of this The March 2000 presidential election was an important include your name, title, alternation of power in Taiwan. milestone in the ongoing development of democracy in organization name, and Cloth, $74.95; paper, $27.95. Available from M. E. Sharpe, Taiwan. After controlling political power for over five e-mail address. http://www.mesharpe.com, tel. (800)541-6563 / fax: (914)273-2106.

To order East-West Center publications, contact the Also published East-West Center Publication Sales Office, 1601 East-West As Asia’s Population Ages, Worries Grow about the Future, by Andrew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Gerard Russo. AsiaPacific Road, Honolulu, HI Issues, No. 58. January 2002. 8 pp. 96848-1601. Printed hard copy available for $2.50 plus shipping/handling from the East-West Center, [email protected]. Phone: (808)944-7145. Free downloadable PDF file located at http://www.EastWestCenter.org/stored/pdfs/api058.pdf. Fax (808)944-7376. Key Issues in Asia Pacific Security, by Brad Glosserman (rapporteur). Senior Policy Seminar 2001. Honolulu: East-West E-mail: Center. ix, 32 pp. [email protected] Paper, $7.50 plus shipping/handling. Available from the East-West Center at [email protected]. Note: These books are Investment Opportunities and E-Business Models in Asian Emerging Markets. Asia Pacific Conference on E-Commerce Summary also available to walk-in Report. 2001. Honolulu: East-West Center. 53 pp. customers at the EWC Paper, Summary Report $15 plus shipping/handling; Supplemental Report $10 plus shipping/handling. Available from the East-West Publications Office. Center at [email protected]. 7

Over the past year, the Bush Administration has — stop judging other peo- come to realize “to make Asia into Europe is just not ple by our own standards going to work. It’s a different place with different and engage and talk.” cultures, a different set of problems,” said journalist Tom Plate advised the United OPlate at an AsiaPacific Breakfast Briefing in January. States to continue a policy of “I think you can’t have an American foreign “aggressive engagement” with policy that is a pure national interest foreign policy China “but it doesn’t mean because national interest is international interest. And we should slight the Japanese. if America isn’t going to provide leadership, who do On the other hand, it is a you want to provide leadership?” mistake to create expectations Plate, an internationally syndicated columnist and that they (the Japanese) can’t professor at the University of California at , meet,” he said. spoke to business and community leaders on “The Bush Taiwan’s economic prob- Administration and Foreign Policy Challenges in Asia” lems “are compelling it to be at the briefing, sponsored by Bank of Hawaii. realistic about the mainland While tensions remain high between India and and undercutting some of Pakistan, he suggested that “if you want to be a wild the demagoguing politicians optimist,” tensions between the two countries “will on that island,” he said. actually diminish because of the He complimented Tom Plate at the Asia third-party role of the United South Korean President Kim Pacific Breakfast Briefing. Tom Plate on States.” Dae-Jung, who “has tried to Although President Clinton be a Rabin on the Korea issue,” and also has attempted was slow to engage in foreign “to defuse the apology issue with the Japanese.” U.S. Foreign Policy policy issues in Asia, Plate “I think the only option for North Korea is the credited the former president only option for us, which is diplomacy and engage- for going to Islamabad during ment,” Plate contended. “Do you want to have a war Challenges in Asia his visit to South Asia in 2000. with North Korea? We’d win it, but there wouldn’t be Plate said Clinton had been much left of Seoul. advised not to give credibility to the military coup that “I think (Secretary of State) Powell should go to had taken place there. Last October, Pakistan President North Korea and then a year later (President) Bush Musharraf mentioned Clinton’s visit in a significant should go to North Korea,” Plate advised, adding that speech. “Imagine if the President of the United States progress must be taken step by step “because if North had slighted Pakistan and not gone there,” Plate said. Korea implodes, you’re going to have a huge refugee “I don’t think even this strongman could have gotten problem which is going to add to tensions with China. public opinion tilted the way he did, which is a lesson South Korea won’t be able to absorb it.”

Afghanistan: The View from the Ground in Kabul continued from page 3 Embassy, which had been closed for 12 years. She noted “There’s a large group of very talented, very the signs of ordinary life gradually returning to the city smart, very organizationally aware Afghans who have — scenes taken for granted in other societies but which been running international NGOs without any expat had been banned by the Taliban — of children flying folks being there,” she said. “Those people are still kites and Afghan people tending birds in cages as pets. there and more and more are coming back from In answer to questions about the leadership, she Pakistan.” Many of these Afghans are sought after as acknowledged, “Hamid Karzai has a very difficult task. employees by the diplomatic community, the United He really does not have at this point the mandate of Nations and other international organizations. anything more than the Bonn accord to be an interim She said that women are returning to work in the leader for six months. government ministries. But they wear burkas on the “He has to have his feelers out with all of the streets, an indication they are still concerned about seven factions,” she said, “so I would not anticipate their safety. In their offices, they take off the burkas any great, dramatic things happening this first six and wear head scarves. months because it truly is an interim administration.” “The only way that you can help states that run During the years under Taliban rule, a core of into problems like Sierra Leone, Somalia and Afghans continued to work for large international Afghanistan,” Wright said, in answer to a question, “is organizations such as CARE and other social service if the international community is not fainthearted, if and health agencies, as well as small Afghan non- they go ahead and bite the bullet, get in there and stay governmental organizations (NGO) supported by the course and help these countries get back going.” grants from larger organizations. 8

Notes and Quotes

From General Musharraf justified his support for U.S. The Bush administration should put pressure on “India-Pakistan: Washington Better actions in Afghanistan as a way of denying India an Pakistan to take visible measures against the Jaish and Hurry Up and Mediate” advantage in the conflict over Kashmir. For him to Lashkar terrorist groups. It should seek an arrange- By Arun R. Swamy in International turn against militants operating in Kashmir now ment that would result in Pakistan ending support for Herald Tribune would risk his own overthrow. militant activities in exchange for some political December 26, 2001 GU.S. policy on Kashmir has historically been reactive concession from India on Kashmir. and shaped by other concerns. It is time for America to The alternative is erosion of U.S. credibility and a convince the two sides to demilitarize their dispute. war that nobody wants.

From Japan’s violent pursuit of a suspected North that puts North Korea on notice that force will be used “Japan’s Rights and Wrongs Korean boat in the East China Sea has prompted both against suspected “terrorist” vessels, but which does not in the ‘Fishing Boat’ domestic and international controversy.... undermine the principle of freedom of navigation in Incident” By Mark J. Valencia One lesson to be learned from this incident is that the EEZ. Indeed, to prevent serious spill-over effects, in there is a gray area surrounding navigation rights, the rights and wrongs of such operations need to be January 10, 2002 J military activities and the use of force in the EEZ negotiated between Northeast Asian countries — and (exclusive economic zone). A solution must be found perhaps the U.S. — the sooner the better.

From Dependence on oil means dependence on the paying more. When a barrel of crude leaves Saudi “Oil: Don’t Rock the Boat” an interview with Middle East. Changing it would have a devastating Arabia, it can go in one of three directions — to the Fereidun Fesharaki, economic impact. Companies are pretty savvy buyers, U.S., Europe or Asia. Asians pay $1 more than the EWC Fellow, By Heidi Brown and U.S. buyers are the savviest; they get the lowest Europeans pay and $2 to $3 more than the U.S. pays in Forbes Global prices. Asians are very weak in this area; they end up for the same oil, excluding transportation. January 21, 2002 D

From As hundreds of U.S. troops prepare to begin their forces to get into the conflict in the southern “Joint Operation Easier to Begin Than to End” “shoulder-to-shoulder” exercise with the Philippine Philippines than to end their involvement. By Michael Richardson military against an elusive group of Muslim guerrillas Gerard Finin, a specialist on the Philippines at the in the International Herald Tribune with suspected links to Osama bin Laden’s terrorist East-West Center in Hawaii, said it was unclear January 28, 2002 network, Al Qaeda, some analysts are warning that the whether the U.S. military mission was really for Aoperation could become bigger and messier, and could training, to rescue two American hostages or to subdue last longer than its scheduled six months. the Abu Sayyaf Muslim guerrillas and other armed While critics stop short of drawing a parallel with groups suspected of having links to Al Qaeda. America’s bitter experience in the Vietnam War, they “Moreover, the mission does not appear to have a clear warn that it is very likely to be much easier for U.S. exit strategy or timetable,” he said.

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East-West Center Now is the time to send your contribution of Robert F. Sharpe and Company’s booklet, “Charitable Foundation $25, $50, $100 or more and double the value of your Giving After the 2001 Tax Act” features details about the 2001 Board contribution! The McInerny Foundation will match all changes that took place on January 1. You will learn how of Directors first-time gifts from alumni to the East-West Center – the estate tax has now been phased out for most (51% of up to $100 per donor. Please take advantage of this Restates that were subject to it last year will no longer be Co-Chairs N opportunity to double your gift and raise an additional burdened by it), and how lower income tax rates and Kenneth F. Brown changes in the gift tax laws may affect your plans. Haigo Shen $25,000 for the East-West Center. Your gift can really Contact the EWC Foundation office at 808-944-7105 or Vice-Chair make a difference but by e-mail to [email protected] to have a free Edison H. Miyawaki it must be received by copy sent to you. Hawaii residents are invited to attend a seminar Directors May 31, 2002. For your on Friday, April 26, 2002 by Stephen H. Reese, estate Joan M. Bickson donation of $25 or more, planning attorney, who will explain how to make a will Mark Fukunaga we will send you two that works. The seminar will be held at the East-West John N. Hawkins exclusive East-West Center Center in the Sarimanok Room, Hawaii Imin Lawrence M. Johnson luggage tags. EWC luggage tags International Conference Center from 12 noon. Daniel B.T. Lau A complimentary lunch and free parking will be Peter C. Lewis provided. There is no charge or obligation for this Gerald M. Pang seminar. Seating is limited. Please call Gary Yoshida G. Markus Polivka EWC Foundation Programs at 808-944-7196 for more information. Ihakara Puketapu Jean E. Rolles AsiaPacific Breakfast Briefings Joichi Saito Tom Plate, internationally syndicated columnist Puongpun Sananikone and professor at UCLA, spoke on “The Bush Oswald K. Stender Administration and Foreign Policy Challenges in Asia” Hawaii Pacific Rim Society Ratan Tata on January 18, 2002 at the Bank of Hawaii’s Executive Gulab Watumull Dining Room. This program is made possible by the The Hawaii Pacific Rim Society has continued its R.J. Zlatoper support of Bank of Hawaii. generous support of the East-West Center Arts Program through its funding of the following projects in 2002: Asia Pacific Outlook Speaker Series The Heritage of Chinese Opera exhibition from January 15 Sheila Smith, EWC fellow, spoke on “Japan’s Tto April 6; The Spectacle of Music and Dance from Lifou, Response to September 11” on December 13, 2001 at Melanesia from September 7 to 25; Artist-in-Residence the Outrigger Wailea Resort on the island of Maui. and exhibition of Chinese painter and printmaker The neighbor island speaker series is made possible by Zhiyuan Cong from April to May; and the Ramayana in the support of Hawaiian Airlines, Mauna Lani Bay the Arts of Southeast Asia Hotel & Bungalows and Outrigger Wailea Resort. exhibition from October to December. President’s Roundtable The Hawaii Pacific Susan Pharr, Edwin O. Reischauer Professor of Rim Society is also Japanese Politics and Director, Program on U.S.-Japan supporting two new East- Susan Pharr, East-West Relations, Harvard University, spoke on “Japan: West Center scholarships: Center visiting fellow, Where Is It Headed?” on February 13, 2002 to an one in the graduate degree discusses changes in Japan audience of about thirty people. Invitations for the program and one in the The Heritage of Chinese with members of the President’s Roundtable are extended to major donors Asia Pacific Leadership Opera exhibition in the President’s Roundtable. of the East-West Center Foundation. Program. EWC Gallery.

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