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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 16 Aug 2019 08:09 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Builders Merchants Industry data clearly shows the Company Events weather affected June, looking for July bounce 20-Aug Home Depot; Q219 Results Persimmon; Glenveagh Properties Unsuccessful with incremental 21-Aug Charter Court Financial Services; Q219 Results planning gain on North Dublin site 22-Aug CRH; Q219 Results OneSavings Bank; Q219 Results UK Economic View Talk of a united government leaves Playtech; Q219 Results Rank Group; Q419 Results chances of a no-deal unchanged 23-Aug Glenveagh Properties; Q219 Results Kingspan; H1 results Economic Events Ireland 22-Aug PPI Jul19 United Kingdom 20-Aug CBI Industrial Trends Aug19 22-Aug CBI Dist. Trades Survery Aug19 United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Builders Merchants Industry data clearly shows the weather affected June, looking for July bounce As expected the latest figures from the UK Builders Merchants Federation show that June Robert Eason was weak with underlying volumes down 4.5% yoy, reflecting the well documented poor +353-1-641 9271 weather. This follows 1.2% in May and 3.8% in April and leaves the second quarter broadly [email protected] flat versus +4% in the first quarter. David O’Brien +353-1-641 9230 This is consistent with trends reported by the listed merchants: (i) Grafton’s UK merchanting david.a.o’[email protected] lfl sales growth went from 4.8% in Jan-Apr to -0.5% in May-June; and, (ii) Travis Perkins Merchanting division’s lfl sales growth in Q2 was 2.7%, down from 10.6% in Q1. Shane Carberry +353-1-6419118 [email protected] Despite the uncertainty around Brexit we are expecting a better start to Q3. While Travis Perkins did not provide any numbers on how the third quarter had started, it Sean Blaney did highlight the two year lfls as a good starting point, which would be around circa +353-1-6419222 4%. Grafton Group will provide more concrete figures with results on August 30th [email protected] as it usually gives lfls for the second half to date. Home… Glenveagh Properties Unsuccessful with incremental planning gain on North Dublin site Yesterday the Irish planning Authority (An Bord Pleanala) rejected a planning proposal from Recommendation: Buy Glenveagh on one of its sites in Donabate (north Dublin). Currently, the housebuilder is in Closing Price: €0.66 the process of building out circa 150 units on the site, forty of which we know already are being sold to IRES. On the rest of the development there was already planning permission Robert Eason +353-1-641 9271 for 97 units (35 houses and 62 apartments) and the company was seeking to increase this to [email protected] 174 units (all apartments). It is the latter that has been rejected as it was deemed to be contrary to ministerial guidelines and national / local policy. This is a slight disappointment as the housebuilders have been successful in This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates winning incremental planning gains on sites. We believe it is now likely that Glenveagh will revert to the original planning permission and we will get an update on this and more next week when it issues results on August 23rd. Home… Page 2 16 Aug. 19 Goodbody Morning Wrap UK Economic View Talk of a united government leaves chances of a no-deal unchanged rd MPs are set to return to the House of Commons on September 3 . Over the past few weeks, Alexander Wilson Boris Johnson’s camp has said the time to block a no-deal has passed, the Speaker of the +353-1-641 9225 [email protected] House has said he will “fight with every breath” to stop Johnson closing parliament for no deal, and most recently, Jeremy Corbyn has reached out to pro-EU parties and MPs in an effort to unite to bring down the government and go on to form a temporary government with the sole purpose of requesting an extension to the Hallowe’en deadline, with Corbyn stepping up as caretaker Prime Minister. Given the limited options left for pro-EU MPs to block a no-deal, the SNP and Plaid Cymru have both signalled their support while leader of the Liberal Democrats, Jo Swinson, and prominent Tory MPs including Dominic Grieve have agreed to meet with Corbyn. As it stands, there continues to be many moving parts in the united government plans. Indeed, the prospects of a united government remain very much up in the air, with markets continuing to bake in a high chance of a no-deal. In our view, the recent developments still leave a high level of uncertainty as we continue to be drip fed information through the media. We eagerly await the week of the 2nd of September, which is shaping up to be one of the most eventful weeks to date in this Brexit process, with a no-confidence vote potentially on the horizon. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 3 16 Aug. 19 Goodbody Morning Wrap Issuer & Analyst Disclosures Analyst Certification The named Research Analyst certifies that: (1) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers. (2) No part of my remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this report. Regulatory Information Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. This publication has been approved by Goodbody. The information has been taken from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute best judgement at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information, tools and material presented in this document are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities. Conflicts of Interest Goodbody has procedures and policies in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research business. Goodbody analysts and other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of research operate and have a management reporting line that is independent to its business. Information barriers are in place between the Corporate Finance arm and the Research arm to ensure that any confidential and or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner. Our Investment Research Conflicts of Interest Policy is available at Conflicts of Interest Investors should be aware, that, where appropriate, research may be disclosed to the issuer(s) in advance of publication, in order to correct factual inaccuracies only and not to materially amend the research in any way. Goodbody is satisfied that it has operational procedures in place, which ensure that such disclosures will not compromise the report’s objectivity. Goodbody has provided investment banking services to AIB Group, Applegreen, ARYZTA, Cairn Homes, Datalex, Draper Esprit, FBD Holdings, First Derivatives, Flutter Entertainment, Grafton Group, Greencore, Hibernia REIT, ICG, IFG Group, Kingspan, Origin Enterprises, Playtech, Rank Group, Total Produce, UDG Healthcare, and Yew Grove REIT in the past 12 months. Goodbody Stockbrokers acts as corporate broker to AIB Group, Applegreen, ARYZTA, Cairn Homes, Datalex, Draper Esprit, FBD Holdings, First Derivatives, Flutter Entertainment, Grafton Group, Greencore, Hibernia REIT, ICG, IFG Group, IPL Plastics, Kingspan, Origin Enterprises, Playtech, Rank Group, UDG Healthcare, and Yew Grove REIT The list of companies for which Goodbody acts as market maker and on which it provides research, is available at Regulatory Disclosures This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 4 16 Aug. 19 Goodbody Morning Wrap Other disclosures We would like to inform you that Robert Eason holds shares in SIG A description of this company is available at Company Descriptions All prices used in this report are as at close of business of the previous working day unless otherwise indicated. A summary of our standard valuation methods are available at Valuation Methodologies A summary of share price recommendations and whether material investment banking services have been provided to these companies is available at Regulatory Disclosures Other important disclosures are available at Regulatory Disclosures Goodbody updates its recommendations on a regular basis. A breakdown of all recommendations provided by Goodbody is available at Regulatory Disclosures Where Goodbody has provided investment banking services to an issuer, details of the proportion of buys, holds and sells attributed to that issuer will also be included.
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