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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 15 May 2019 08:49 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Playtech AGM statement reassuringly re-iterates FY19 Company Events guidance 15-May British Land Company; FY19 Results JPJ Group; Q119 Results William Hill Weak trends in ytd should come as no Kingfisher; Q120 Trading Update surprise, expect no change to FY19 numbers Marston's; Q219 Results Playtech; AGM JPJ Group International growth more than offsets weaker William Hill; Q119 Trading Update 16-May Rockwool; Q119 Results UK performance 17-May easyJet; Q219 Results 20-May Forterra; AGM Marston’s H119 results slightly ahead of expectations Ryanair; FY19 Results 21-May Cranswick; FY19 Results Gaming and Leisure FanDuel continues to dominate in NJ First Derivatives; FY19 Results sports betting! Greencore; Interim results Provident Financial; Q119 Trading Update CYBG Trading update 1Q19 UDG Healthcare; Q219 Results 22-May Britvic; OneSavings Bank Q19 results show continued strong C & C Group; FY19 Results growth Cairn Homes; AGM Close Brothers Group; Q319 Trading Update Charter Court Financial Services 1Q19 trading update Great Portland Estates; FY19 Results Marks & Spencer; FY19 Results points to stellar loan growth & Strong asset quality FBD Holdings European Commission launches probe of Economic Events Ireland insurance body 15-May Property Prices Mar19 Trade Balance Mar19 Irish Banks European council adopts measures promoting 22-May PPI Apr19 banking union United Kingdom Irish Banks Quick wrap-up from the BOI and PTSB AGMs 22-May CPI Apr19 Yew Grove REIT Latest Q1 data highlights growth of PPI Apr19 Retail Price Index Apr19 provincial Irish office market UK Commercial Property British Land NAV declines follow United States precedent of peers Europe Building Materials Lafarge-Holcim Q119 - Another strong This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates set of results from the heavyside Builders Merchants Kingfisher results highlight the challenges that it faces UK Economic View Solid labour market in Q1 despite Brexit uncertainties Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Playtech AGM statement reassuringly re-iterates FY19 guidance Playtech has released a trading update to coincide with its AGM statement. The main takeaway is that management re-iterates its previous guidance for FY19 adjusted EBITDA in Recommendation: Buy Closing Price: £3.94 the range of €390m to €415m. Gavin Kelleher In terms of revenue performance, the group notes that Regulated B2B Gaming revenues +353-1-641 0423 have continued to show similar trends to those reported at the time of the FY results in [email protected] February. To recap in February the group stated that Regulated B2B Gaming revenues were +7% yoy in the first 49 days (excluding acquisitions and one-offs). In relation to Non- regulated B2B Gaming revenues, as per previous statements, these are noted as being materially lower yoy due to the continued shift to regulated markets and the drop in Asian revenues where the market remains competitive. Snaitech’s underlying operational performance is noted as being very strong, but the group has as expected been impacted by the Italian legislative changes. The group re-iterates that Sun Bingo is expected to be profitable this year. Given commentary from various peers more recently, it comes as no surprise that the group notes that its TradeTech financials business has seen trading revenue impacted due to lower market volatility. However, the group states that underlying KPIs have been encouraging since the start of the year. Overall, this is an encouraging update from Playtech. Like the rest of the sector, we sense there has been low expectations going into this mini reporting period. The fact the group has re-iterated guidance, particularly in light of the weak backdrop for financials in the year to date, does suggest the rest of its divisions are performing solidly. Given the depressed valuation and recent weakness, today’s update should be well received by the market. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 2 15 May. 19 Goodbody Morning Wrap William Hill Weak trends in ytd should come as no surprise, expect no change to FY19 numbers William Hill released a trading statement for the 17 week period to April 30th. Group revenue Recommendation: Buy Closing Price: £1.38 increased +2% yoy (but there was a benefit from MRG acquisition in the period). Full-year outlook is in line with expectations assuming a normalised gross win margin for remainder of Gavin Kelleher the year. +353-1-641 0423 [email protected] Online revenue including Mr Green was +8%, with gaming +28% offset by sportsbook which declined -11% yoy. On a pro forma basis, online net revenue was -6%, with gaming flat and sportsbook -12%. GWM reduced 80 bps yoy due to less favourable sporting results. UK online net revenue declined 8%, with international net revenue -2% on a pro forma basis. Mr Green’s is noted as performing in line with expectations. Retail revenues declined 7% yoy. Within this, sportsbook net revenue increased +2% with wagering +5% offset by gross win margin -40bps. The staking number would have been helped by more racing fixtures yoy in the period. Gaming net revenue declined 15% impacted by the introduction of FOBT staking cuts and while early days, trends to date have been consistent with previous guidance according to management. The period only includes 1 month of the £2 impact and we estimate machine revenues seem to be tracking at c.-50% since the £2 introduction. US Revenue increased +48% (+39% cc) with wagers +65% (+55% cc). In the US Existing business, wagers were +27% (+19% cc) which drove net revenue growth of +6% (flat cc) due to GWM being down 110bps yoy. The US Expansion is noted as progressing well, and it has seen a GWM of 7.2% in its expansion business. Overall, from an operational perspective there is not much to get too excited about in this morning’s update. The online division continues to be impacted by EDD measures and yoy sporting results did not help during Q1, in line with commentary from other operators. The company has outlined that adjusting for EDD and yoy results the Online division ex MRG is broadly in line with its 4-6% underlying revenue guidance. Retail is weak due to the £2 stake introduction but management has highlighted that it has been in line with expectations. We do not expect to make any changes to our numbers (FY19 operating profit of £136m v consensus £133m). While this morning’s update shows weak revenue trends, this was widely as expected. While we will have to wait into H2 and FY20 before we see an This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates improvement revenue trends, the shares continue to trade at an undemanding valuation. Home… Page 3 15 May. 19 Goodbody Morning Wrap JPJ Group International growth more than offsets weaker UK performance Group revenue came in at £83m, +13% yoy, which was ahead of our £77m forecast. This Recommendation: Buy beat was driven by a very strong performance in Vera&John. Overall, adjusted EBITDA Closing Price: £6.98 increased 16% yoy to £29m. On outlook, the statement notes that trading in Q1 has been in line with management’s expectations and it remains confident in the FY outlook. David Brohan +353-1-641 9450 [email protected] Overall, this is another positive update for JPJ. While the UK delivered a disappointing performance, this has been well flagged and is expected to improve in H2. The International business is in great shape and continues to exceed our expectations. Importantly the group has reduced net debt by a further £27m in the quarter and leverage now stands at 2.4x. The board is comfortable with holding cash on the balance sheet and intend to provide further detail on shareholder returns at the interim results. On first glance, given it is still early in the year, we are unlikely to make any material changes to numbers. However due to the impressive momentum in International, the bias to numbers remains firmly to the upside. The share price has been resilient in recent weeks relative to its peer set and we think today’s release should give investors further comfort that the investment case remains firmly on track. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 4 15 May. 19 Goodbody Morning Wrap Marston’s H119 results slightly ahead of expectations Marston’s has reported interim results this morning for the 26 weeks to 30th March. Group Recommendation: Sell revenue was +2% yoy to £553m (Goodbody: £540m). EBIT was +1% yoy to £76.1m (GBY: Closing Price: £1.01 £75m), while Adj. PBT came in at £37m (Goodbody: c.£38m), +2% yoy. Paul Ruddy +353 1 641 6024 Destination and Premium revenue grew +2% yoy to £216m and underlying operating profit [email protected] was +1% £35.2m, broadly in line with our forecast of £35.5m. LFL sales in D&P were +1.2% (GBY: +1%) The margin was 16.3%, - 10bps yoy.
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