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Counter-Suicide-Terrorism: Evidence from House Demolitions Author(S): Efraim Benmelech, Claude Berrebi, and Esteban F

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Counter-Suicide-Terrorism: Evidence from House Demolitions Author(S): Efraim Benmelech, Claude Berrebi, and Esteban F Counter-Suicide-Terrorism: Evidence from House Demolitions Author(s): Efraim Benmelech, Claude Berrebi, and Esteban F. Klor Source: The Journal of Politics, Vol. 77, No. 1 (January 2015), pp. 27-43 Published by: The University of Chicago Press on behalf of the Southern Political Science Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/678765 . Accessed: 08/01/2015 19:14 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. The University of Chicago Press and Southern Political Science Association are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Journal of Politics. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 129.105.195.250 on Thu, 8 Jan 2015 19:14:06 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Counter-Suicide-Terrorism: Evidence from House Demolitions Efraim Benmelech, Northwestern University and NBER Claude Berrebi,HebrewUniversity Esteban F. Klor, Hebrew University and CEPR This article examines whether house demolitions are an effective counterterrorism tactic against suicide terrorism. We link original longitudinal microlevel data on houses demolished by the Israeli Defense Forces with data on the universe of suicide attacks against Israeli targets. By exploiting spatial and time variation in house demolitions and suicide at- tacks during the second Palestinian uprising, we show that punitive house demolitions (those targeting Palestinian su- icide terrorists and terror operatives) cause an immediate, significant decrease in the number of suicide attacks. In contrast, Palestinian fatalities do not have a consistent effect on suicide terror attacks, while curfews and precautionary house demolitions (demolitions justified by the location of the house but unrelated to the identity of the house’s owner) cause a significant increase in the number of suicide attacks. The results support the view that selective violence is an effective tool to combat terrorist groups and that indiscriminate violence backfires. lthough it is commonly argued that government insurgent group since selective violence punishes only those Apolicies to deter terrorism and disrupt the operations directly involved in acts of insurgency and terrorism (Ka- of terror organizations tend to be effective (Ganor lyvas 2006). On the contrary, indiscriminate counterinsur- 2005), alternative theoretical models suggest that they may gency measures backfire because they create new grievances, have a boomerang effect.1 According to this view, harsh fail to generate a clear structure of incentives, and allow measures of counterterrorism backfire by fostering hatred insurgents to solve collective action problems (Kalyvas and and attempts to exact revenge (Siqueira and Sandler 2006). Kocher 2007; Tishkov 2004; Wood 2003). As a consequence, In particular, while counterterrorism policies typically affect indiscriminate violence against civilians increases popular the general population, the effectiveness of counterterrorism support for terrorist and insurgent groups. Terrorists and policies depends on their ability to target terror organizations insurgents usually translate this increase into bigger cadres directly (e.g., Bueno de Mesquita and Dickson 2007; Fearon and increased violence against their political opponents.2 and Laitin 2003). From these theoretical arguments follows that the main A number of scholars studying insurgencies and coun- challenge of counterterrorism strategies is to target directly terinsurgencies have raised similar arguments. That litera- those involved in perpetrating and executing terror attacks. ture posits that selective measures of violence are effective In many conflicts plagued by terrorism, perpetrators are because they are consistent with a notion of fairness. In ad- not only part of the local population but also deliberately dition, they do not distort individuals’ incentives to join the launch their attacks from civil areas. This strategy is used Efraim Benmelech is the Harold L. Stuart Professor of Finance at the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, 60628. Claude Berrebi is a Senior Lecturer at Federmann School of Public Policy and Government, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel, 91905. Esteban F. Klor is an Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel, 9190 1. Supplementary material for this article is available at the “Supplements” link in the online edition. Data needed to reproduce the numerical results of this article are available at Klor’s personal website (http://pluto.huji.ac.il/∼eklor/HD_data). 2. See Bueno de Mesquita (2013) for a theoretical analysis of the connection between economic conditions, political mobilization, and their effect on rebels’ choice to resort to terrorism or insurgency. The Journal of Politics, volume 77, number 1. Published online December 16, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/678765 q 2015 by the Southern Political Science Association. All rights reserved. 0022-3816/2015/7701-0004 $10.00 27 This content downloaded from 129.105.195.250 on Thu, 8 Jan 2015 19:14:06 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 28 / Counter-Suicide-Terrorism Efraim Benmelech, Claude Berrebi and Esteban F. Klor by terror organizations to disguise their activities and make of selective and indiscriminate policies while they are being it harder for the other side to retaliate (Berlow 1998). Yet, simultaneously applied with the common goal of stopping as the theoretical arguments go, when the government has terror attacks. sufficient territorial control and access to accurate intelli- We find that punitive house demolitions lead to fewer gence, selective violence should be an effective measure of suicide attacks in the month following the demolitions. The counterterrorism. effect is significant and sizeable—a one standard-deviation Despite the wide interest that counterterrorism policies increase in punitive house demolitions leads to a decrease draw and the abundance of related theoretical studies, there of 11.7% in the number of suicide terrorists originating is little empirical evidence on the effectiveness of selective from an average district. In contrast, precautionary demo- and indiscriminate measures of counterterrorism when both litions (which are not related to activities of the houses’ measures are simultaneously applied. Assessing the effec- owners and occupants) are associated with more suicide at- tiveness of counterterrorism policies requires detailed micro- tacks. Our estimates show that a standard-deviation increase level data on terror attacks and counterterrorism operations, in precautionary house demolitions leads to a 48.7% increase as well as clear criteria to differentiate between selective and in the number of suicide terrorists from an average district. indiscriminate measures. Unfortunately, such detailed data In order to attribute a casual interpretation to our re- are typically not publicly available. sults, it is important to note that they are robust to alter- This article attempts to fill this gap by linking novel native measures of house demolitions, such as the number microlevel data on house demolitions (a policy used by the of housing units demolished, number of residents affected, Israeli Defense Forces [IDF] to combat and deter terrorism) and size of demolished houses. In addition, they are ob- and suicide attacks, empirically documenting the effects of tained using a time and district fixed-effects specification. house demolitions on future suicide attacks. We differen- Therefore, the results are not affected by districts’ charac- tiate between the two main types of house demolitions car- teristics that are constant over time or by political devel- ried out by the IDF: precautionary demolitions and punitive opments that are constant across districts. The results are house demolitions. Precautionary demolitions are intended also robust to different specifications including or exclud- to prevent the launching of attacks from specific locations ing a wide array of control variables and counterterrorism and are not related to activities carried out by the owners or measures. In particular, we control for Palestinian fatalities occupants of the houses being demolished. In contrast, in in targeted killings, other Israeli-induced Palestinian fatali- punitive house demolitions, the IDF demolishes or seals ties, and curfews imposed on different localities. While these houses that were home to Palestinian suicide terrorists or measures of counterterrorism do not have a significant and to individuals suspected, detained, or convicted of involve- robust effect on suicide terrorism, their inclusion in the econ- ment in violent acts against Israelis. ometric models does not affect the estimated impact of Our analysis is based on original microlevel data. We use house demolitions on suicide terrorism, thus alleviating con- a longitudinal microlevel data set containing information cerns related to selection bias. Moreover, we examine the on all punitive house demolitions during the second Pales- robustness of
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