Socio-Hydrologic Perspectives of the Co-Evolution of Humans and Water in the Tarim River Basin, Western China: the Taiji–Tire

Open Access Discussions Sciences er from serious water ff Earth System Earth Hydrology and and Hydrology 2 12754 12753 , and M. Sivapalan 1 , H. Hu 1 , F. Tian 1 This discussion paper is/has beenSciences under (HESS). review Please for refer the to journal the Hydrology corresponding and final Earth paper System in HESS if available. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Department of Geography and shortages, land salinization andhealth and desertification. increased With recognition of intensifiedhuman unsustainability deterioration intervention of and of traditional recovery development river pattern, measureshas have shown been a adopted. reverse Since regime then,Spatio-temporal shift the towards variations some basin healing of ofinto historical the four environmental socio-hydrological damage. types: co-evolution primitive areurban agricultural, SHSs. classified traditional These agricultural, industrial co-evolutionaryTaiji–Tire changes agricultural Model, and have a been refinement summarizedthe of co-evolution in a of terms special a of system concept because the in of Chinese interactions philosophy, among relating its to components. stage, especially in the 19th andmassive 20th land centuries, reclamation it and experienced fast rapid socio-economicthe population growth, development, principal and humans players became ofinto system a evolution. new By regime the withyond 1970s, a its carrying vulnerable the eco-hydrological capacity, Tarim and system Basin a seemingly human had populated society evolved be- that began to su derpinning socio-hydrological systems (SHS). Asof the a human–water self-organized system entity, in the thetime, evolution Tarim then Basin reached punctuated stable by states sudden forstudy, shifts long we periods due discuss of to three internal steadytion or periods and external (i.e. recovery) disturbances. natural, and In transitions human this inral” exploitation, between stage and during that degrada- the existed past pre-18thvironment, 2000 century, yr. with evolution During small-scale of the human “natu- the society SHSsuch and was sound as mainly en- river driven channel by natural migration environmental and changes climate change. During the human exploitation This paper presents ajiang historical Province, Western socio-hydrological China, analysispresent. from of The the the analysis time Tarim isman–water of Basin, aimed systems the Xin- at and opening exploring at of the identifying historical the common co-evolution Silk patterns of Road coupled or to hu- organizing the principles un- Abstract Socio-hydrologic perspectives of the co-evolution of humans and waterTarim in River the Basin, Western China: the Taiji–Tire Model Y. Liu Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/10/12753/2013/ 10, 12753–12792, 2013 doi:10.5194/hessd-10-12753-2013 © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 1 Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing,2 100084, China Geographic Information Science, University ofUrbana, Illinois IL at 61801, Urbana-Champaign, USA Received: 22 September 2013 – Accepted: 15Correspondence October to: 2013 F. Tian – ([email protected]) Published: 28 OctoberPublished 2013 by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 5 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ) 1 − is principally formed from the thaw- ff 12756 12755 erent development stages. Along the way, the human– ff Although there have been several studies that focused on more recent decades of This paper represents a first attempt at undertaking a historical socio-hydrological Historical analysis serves as one of the key methodologies of socio-hydrological of the co-evolution of the socio-hydrological system within TRB could not only improve distinct features in each of itswater di relationship also evolved from aregime nature-dominated regime with to the a advancement human-dominated of social productive forces. the human–water relationshipPang within et al., the 2012; TRB Zhou ethydrological (Chen al., as 2012), et well the as al., much longer thecomprehensively 2005; term analyzed. associated What dynamics Hao climatic is of and more, coupled et there social, ecologicalsuch is al., changes human–water a history, considerable have 2009; which lack not of will been an be overview the of focus of this paper. The historical analysis the meeting point betweenthe the Silk eastern Road and western indevelopment worlds of 138 BC. human with The society thetions and establishment region socio-economic of from has formation the a that primitivefinally rich encompass stage to transi- written to the history industrial traditional of stage agriculture, over at then 2000 present. modern yr, The agriculture, with TRB and socio-hydrological system displays where water dominates theactions dynamics and of feedbacks the between eco-environmentalbasin, humans system the and and climate water the is are hyper-arid inter- ing and very of the prominent. river glaciers In runo and thisKunlun mountain inland Mountain snow, as and well Tianshanmain as course Mountain orographically of surrounding the generated Tarim rainfall it. Rivera has in highly In experienced mobile the frequent and the shifts, star-studded geological whichgave pattern helped of birth past, to oases. to shape the In terms a of special human type history, the of basin scattered city-state civilization and eventually became archeological findings (Costanza et al., 2007; Ponting, 1992). study starting from the distant pastTarim River (more Basin than two in millennia northwestern before)represents China to an is the arid present. chosen socio-eco-hydrological The as system the (precipitation of study just area. 50–100 The mmyr Tarim Basin may still be reconstructed with the support of the relevant “grey” literature and other ten tend to be ambiguous, the historical patterns of human-environment interactions space. Understanding such human–water relationshipsics and is their of evolutionary great dynam- importancenew emerging for discipline sustainable of human socio-hydrology development, (Sivapalan which et is al., the 2012). aimstudy, of and the basically itand involves studying reconstructing the the pastinto associated (i.e. distinct immediate co-evolutionary past phases processes, ormechanisms and through and distant their systematic classification past) interactions analysis thataccurate may of have historical contributed the data to such social are history. and Although not always physical available events and and the co-evolution processes ofdevelopment of human societies (Brinket et al., al., 1990; 2003; Ibe Gordon andet et Njemanze, 1999; al., al., Klocking 2008; 2012). Schilling Inboth et fact, environmental al., as stress 2008; Ferreira and pointed andtems, social out which Ghimire, change by produces 2012; in a Costanza Li complex turn et web feed of al. climate multi-directional (2007), and inter-connections in human ecological time sys- responses and to tory of human civilization,expanded people away first from gathered rivers alongnied as river by banks, they increasing and established thennatural complexity tribes, gradually water of villages conditions and posed social important cities,evolution structures. of constraints accompa- society, During on and human in this activities returnnificantly evolutionary and human as thus activities process well impacted the (Ponting, natural 1992).excessive water Recently regimes utilization sig- as of well water as(e.g. resources in salinization, the and pollution, historic the flooding, past, consequent water improper water or scarcity related etc.) problems have hampered sustainable Water is the basishuman of wellbeing, and all is life,the essential a great for key ancient the civilizations factor maintenancefamous of of in rivers Egypt, ecosystem production such China, health. as of India Many the commodities and of Nile, Babylon important Yellow, Ganges, all Euphrates to developed and along Tigris. In the long his- 1 Introduction 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ). Nowadays, erentiated from the sands of ff derives its name from the Tarim River, 2 12758 12757 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarim_River C. ◦ together with the impact of channel sediment deposition and the drifting of the ff The history of human activities within TRB goes all the way back to the Stone Age. Historically, during the past 2000 yr, the climate of TRB experienced significant vari- The Tarim River has four tributaries, namely Aksu River, Yarkand River, Hotan River, The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides an introduc- century, there still lived inhabitants called Lopliks in the Lop Nor region who relied on Since at least 2000 BC, primitivetal tribes conditions settled in and this region thecenters, despite enormous e.g. tough environmen- China, distances Egypt, separatingCity-states and appeared them in the from oases Fertile along ancientthousands Crescent the only civilization river (Wang, (Han, with 2010). 1983; populations The Shu in spatialtions variability the et within of hundreds climatic the al., to and TRB a 2003). eco-hydrologic led condi- few In to diverse the development northern paths and edgefishing socio-economic of and formations. the grazing TRB, modes influenced of production by lasted nomadic for civilizations quite further a up long time. north, Until the late 18th of runo desert caused overflowing andmigrations, twisting as processes, well which as led associatedand degradation to plants and frequent relied regeneration river on of course 2008; (Fan oases and Xie, that 2008). Cheng, humans 1981; Wang et al., 1996; Shu et al., 2003; Wei, empties into its terminalAral. lake Historically (Taitema Lake) the intermittently terminusabout after of 160 flowing km the 1312 northeast km Tarim of River from the system present was Taitema Lake. Lopations, Nor Lake, which which can is cool-wet, be cool-dry, roughly ice divided age,variations into and of several several temperature phases, intermission andcesses precipitation i.e. periods have and warm-wet, (Sun strong ice-snow warm-dry, et influences storage on al., in the Mt. 2005). melting Tianshan The pro- and Mt. Kunlun. The resulting variation and Kongqi River. TheAksu name River, Tarim is Yarkand River, appliedwhich and to is Hotan the deemed as river River, the near formed3 mainstream by the of parts, the the Aral i.e. Tarim union River. the City Theto of upstream mainstream in Karal, the is part western divided and from into Xinjiang, the Aral to downstream Yenbazar, part the middle from part Karal from to Yenbazar its terminal lake. The Tarim River the TRB is about 40 tem). It is surrounded byThis Mount great Tianshan basin in with thewhich an north area flows and of through Mount 1 100 Kunlun Taklimakan,designate 000 China’s in km the the largest south. banks desert. ofa The a desert word river (see “tarim” Wikipedia that isthe website, is TRB used not has to a able hyper-arid to(and climate almost be with zero di average in annual thethe precipitation Taklimakan river of Desert mainly just and comes 50–100 the mm from Lop the Nor surrounding mountains. Basin). The The maximum streamflow temperature in in 2 Study area The Tarim River Basin is located withinwestern the China Xinjiang (see Uyghur Fig. Autonomous Region, 1 north- for its landscape and Fig. 2 for the location and the river sys- tion to the studyand area, water including within the aof, TRB. historical and The overview the following of mechanismstem three the behind, over sections co-evolution the three describe of co-evolution distinct thestages). humans of stages On salient the of the features TRB basis development of socio-hydrological (i.e.analyzing these and sys- natural, observations, interpreting exploitation a the interactions general and betweenconcludes framework recovery humans is with and proposed a water. The next summary paper for possible of then future the research. results and conclusions, and some perspectives on dictions of its possible future dynamics.and Also, it insights has the that potential will toferent generate be information human–water valuable systems for around comparativeguide the socio-hydrologic more studies world detailed across quantitative and process dif- could studies provide and modeling insights in that specific might places. our understanding of past human–water relationships but also facilitate improved pre- 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ered from serious water short- ff ). The Silk Road connected East Asia 12760 12759 erent stages, i.e. from primitive society (fishing, hunting, picking), ff ected by long-term climate changes and human societies therefore had ff In terms of the human–water relationship, the historical co-evolution of the TRB A far-reaching event that occurred during the early development stage of the TRB Similar to other parts of the world, the socio-economic formation of the TRB passed and degradation of the eco-environmental system. 2007a, b). socio-hydrological system could be divided intoaround three stages, the i.e. 2nd the natural centurysocio-hydrological stage from BC change, to the the exploitationcentury 18th when stage the century from impact AD the oftion, human when and 18th factors the natural century increased degradation factors gradually and tosociety to recovery dominated began mid-20th stage one since of to the total modifyreturn mid-20th domina- its century to when balanced behavior human development and after began a to period undertake of over-exploitation remedial of measures water to resources Tong et al., 2006), whichman in society turn responded seriously to the restricted intensive socio-economicengineering human–water development. measures relationship Hu- (e.g. by undertaking emergence large ofmanagement large measures water transfers (e.g. since setting 2000)which as up restored well the of as ecological the system Tarim to River a limited Basin extent Authority (Sun in et al., 1992), 2004; Chen et al., water was able to betural extracted society, for as irrigation. the However, social in productive thecultural force era was infrastructure of significantly (e.g. the upgraded, modern large diversionconstructed scale agricul- canals, agri- and reservoirs, the and groundwater naturalgradually became wells) hydrological the were system dominant became playersthe in greatly 1970s the disturbed. the evolution of downstream Humans ages the area SHS. caused of Specifically, by the since over-exploitation Tarim River insoil salinization su upstream enhanced ecological and degradation source and desertification areas. (Chen Water et shortage al., 2006; and this case, the human–water relationship wassignificantly dominated a by water availability, which was to adapt to such naturaltinued changes during of climate, the hydrology, era geology of etc.at the some This local situation traditional scales con- agricultural human society activities as could well, dominate the despite evolution the of fact the that SHS as more logical and eco-environmental system was limited to water extraction at local scales. In was the openingwas up the imperial of envoyXiyu) the of was the famous a Han Silkthe historical Dynasty 8th Road name to century the in incally AD West Chinese 138 to Regions. and chronicles West the BC referred between Regionshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Regions TRB most by the (or (the often ZHANG 3rd eastern-most to century Qian, region Central BC of who Asia to Central but Asia) sometimes (see specifi- Wikipedia website, contrast, irrigation agriculture appearedthe much source earlier areas along of theKeriya southern the and edge TRB, the and especially ancientwhich in in Qiemo received the river massive sub-basins (Sun migration of oftools et and people Aksu, al., technologies and Hotan, 2005). from introduction Chinese Niya These of agricultural and are advanced civilizations agricultural the in the earliest east places (Liao, 2011). primitive fishing and grazing and could not even digest grains (Han and Lu, 2006). In 20th century, and modernwith the agriculture evolution of started socio-economic in formations,in the its the TRB human–water experienced 1950s relationship. a In (Tong, paradigm the shift 2006). primitive stage, Consistent the human impact on the hydro- Furthermore, the agricultural society thattural existed can mode be and divided modern intowas traditional agricultural agricul- primarily mode. driven In the bywas former human driven mode and by machine agricultural animal power production power, thatspeaking, and emerged traditional following in agriculture the society the industrial within revolution. latter Roughly TRB mode, reached production its peak in the 19th to the with the Indian sub-continent, centralthe Asia, Asia meeting Minor point and between Europe,Regions various and began made ancient the to civilizations. TRB be Afterwell, governed ZHANG which by Qian, enables China us the to and West the access to human–environment the relationship be plentiful in historical recorded the material in ancient and Chinese TRB. data literature and examine as through several di agricultural society (grazing, farming), and on to the industrial society that prevails now. 5 5 25 20 10 15 10 25 15 20 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 12762 12761 socio-hydrological change After the 7th century AD the climate of TRB returned back to the warm-moist pat- Another major feature of the Tarim River Basin is that its climate experienced several turies (i.e. cool-dry period). The whole river system finally broke up into several parts et al., 2005).caused During migration this of transition thetuating river cool-dry period, trend courses. floods dominated However,a occurred climate after variability little the frequently, again ice 10th which for17th century age another again century, 500 AD, and began yr, continued the and from for fluc- then period another around 100 of yr the afterward about 15th (Sun 800main et yr, century, al., streams the which 2005). and During dominant reached this branches, featurehumans, its together and in peak abandonment with the of in the Tarimrecorded, human River the expansion returned settlements. was of The to the the South the shrinking Tarim desert, disconnected River pattern of migration system, that of as existed during the 3rd to 7th cen- desert, abandoned farmlands andquences settlements; of the this cool-dry recordQian climate clearly and when later shows in compared the Shui-Jing-Zhu. to conse- the picture describedtern, by which ZHANG lasted for about 300 yr until the 10th century AD (Shu et al., 2003; Sun intensify the fluvial processes. Themigrations changed hydrological of situation river led courses to andconnect more several from frequent branches the such Southern as Tarim Riverriver the system. of Niya Meanwhile, the River the Northern began Kongqi Tarim River to River,North (a see dis- Tarim source Fig. River 2) which lost moved its southward,Lop connection resulting Nor with in (Hu, the a 1990). main much stream InMonk reduced of the discharge Xuanzang into book in the of 7th Buddhistpicture century Records of during of the the the Tarim Tang Western River, Dynasty, World he with written describes drying by a lower degraded reaches, withered vegetation, expanding South Tarim Rivers into Loption Nor around supported it. a Afterward, vastTRB lake however, underwent during surface a fluctuating with the down-trending abundant 3rd ofet vegeta- both al., to precipitation 2005; 7th and Han, temperature centuries 2010). (Sun Tarim Consequently, AD, River less and the water Lop discharged climate Nor, into and of the more main sediment streams deposited of in the river bed, thus helping to system than exists today, and the large volumes of water flowing from the North and characterized by warm and moisttion conditions and (Sun melt et water al., from 2005). The Mt. plentiful Tianshan precipita- and Mt. Kunlun supported a much larger river Tarim River, which gradually brokethe up southern into mainstream completely several disappearing. smallershrunk Also, isolated significantly the river and northern systems it mainstream no with has longer flows into Lopback Nor Lake and as forth it swings did between(as before. shown cool-dry in and Fig. warm-wet 4),earliest regimes which written over are history the closely past linked of togions the 2000 yr the during TRB migration began the of from Han the ZHANG Dynasty river Qian’s courses. (i.e. voyage The 137 to BC), the during West which Re- the climate of the TRB was centuries AD. The twostreams books of the also Tarim River say wasthe that lush Tarim the and river also vegetation system that coverit has there existed along had dramatically many the finally changed oases. However, two since evolved(see into then main Fig. a and 3c and four-source-one-mainstream by Sect. patternTarim the river 5.1 system 19th that for shown century exists in more Fig. detail). presently 3a–c, By an comparing obvious change the can historical be detected patterns in of the the South significant changes toshow its that river the courses.South Tarim Recent river Tarim remote system river) sensing had aboutuntil studies at two 10 (Bai, 000 least yr main 1994) the courses ago,such 6th as and (i.e. century the North had AD, Book as of“Commentary Tarim preserved Han shown river on this (written in and by the Fig. two-course BAN 3aAD) Waterways Gu pattern say and in Classic”, that ca. b. written 80 the Also, AD) byrivers ancient historical and LI Silk in literature Shui-Jing-Zhu Road (literally the Daoyuan had in TRB, two which the routes implies 6th (i.e. that northern century there and southern) existed along two main rivers during the 5–6th 3.1 The mathematics of development Historically, a remarkable feature of the Tarim River is that it experienced frequent and 3 Natural stage (up to the 18th century): natural factors dominate 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 12764 12763 ectively re-possessed the West Regions from the mid- ff Another fast growth period of the TRB was during the Tang Dynasty (618–907 AD). The lower level of productive force and the higher mobility of society were the inter- The ancient human society in the TRB as a whole did not form a unified country Dynasty in the TRB,century however, was and seriously the challenged Great by Battleforces of Arab took Talas states place between in in the the 751 armythe late of AD. West The the 8th Regions expeditionary Tang Dynasty army and andkhstan) of their Arab and the allies the Tang Dynasty were Tang Dynasty stationedtween defeated in lost these in its eastern Talas influence (presently and overTRB western in the socio-economy. empires current West As interrupted Kaza- Regions. the a Thethe normal result, wars strained development be- years many of during human the and the settlements wet, mid-8th as were century shown abandoned despite in the during Fig. beneficial 4c). climate It (warming is worth noting that ruins of these abandoned settle- The powerful Tang Dynasty e 7th to early 9th centuriesarmy. by A setting 100 up yr ancontributing long administrative to agency peaceful prosperity along of period with agriculture, that business, a and resident arose population. The helped rule to of the recover Tang social production, opened lasted 300–400 yr, mainly duringdreds the of Han years Dynasty, of but cool-dry wasknown climate interrupted and ancient by the hun- human resultant river settlementspeak course in were migrations. Fig. Many abandoned 4b), well- such duringand as this villages the started famous period Lolan, to (seearound Keriya decline and the the Niya from 7th first ruin the century groups. 3rdnote AD These that to (Shen states this et timeline 4th is al., centuries coincident(Wang, 1982; with AD 1998; the Wang, and Yang cool-dry 1998; et tendency finally al., Zu of collapsed 2006). et climate shown al., in 2001). Fig. One 4 can to migrate compared to traditional agricultural societies. nal reasons for abandonment ofwere settlements climate in variations history, while and the themately external hydrological caused direct responses a drivers to shift these of variations the (which river ulti- courses). The prosperous period after the Silk Road states in TRB became vulnerable to social and environmental stresses and were apt than the nomadic societymore in mobile the than north the or traditional the agricultural commercial societies in society the in east. the As west, a but result, also the city- each. After the opening-upWest of Regions the to Silk governern Road both world. the the Afterward Han the West Dynasty city-states Regionswith set within and both TRB up the developed the the fast business eastern throughtechnologies Authority route communication and of and to western ideas the worlds and west- into for a thoughts. mixed advanced Also, area, agricultural the withcivilization and multiple Silk and races commercial Road social and turned multiple organization(farming), cultures the that fishing, (Yin, West formed grazing 1989), Regions as which and shaped a commerce result. made the The TRB mixing human of society agriculture more stable Therefore, human society had athe low environment, level including of the productive natural force hydrological and system. limited influences on and for a longRegions period around existed as 2000 yr isolated ago,cated city-states. within as All the recorded the TRB, had in 36 small the city-states populations Book ranging of from the of hundreds West Han, to mere which thousands were mainly lo- When we carefully examinethat China’s the history total human beforesocial population the shocks grew 19th such slowly century, asdid but it wars not with increase can (Durand, periodic significantly 1960). be before fluctuationsgrew In seen the from caused a 230 late 000 by 18th similar in century. theRegions way, Human the 2nd as population century population numbers recorded AD of (the inDynasty total TRB the re-controlled population Xinjiang of Book 36 (Hua, of city-statesduring 1998; Han), in this Shu long West to period, et the reach al., technology 300 2003; level 000 was Lu low in and and 1760 social Fan, organization 2009). when was Also week. the Qing tury (as shown in Fig. 3c).gradually Simultaneously, southward the to main stream the of route North along Tarim River which moved the present3.2 Tarim River is now Human flowing. history and the abandonment of settlements and gradually evolved into several smaller separated river systems during the 19th cen- 5 5 25 20 10 15 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 12766 12765 Given the lower level of social productive force, the evolution of Tarim SHS was After the 10th century, there were two other episodes of abandonment of settlements, fewer settlements were abandoned since the 9th century AD, as shown in Fig. 4b. caused by social shocks, i.e. thethis Battle is of a Talas transitional and period ators period from could of the also social cool-dry unrest. partly to However, the explainthe warm-wet the equilibrium regimes, abandonment, of and as the natural theFig. SHS fac- sharp 4b). during change For the example, of long long climateriver cool-dry period broke channel of period section dry (about and conditions 500came consequently yr, could wet, low as result more flood shown in water carrying in the mayfrequent have capacity. shrinking discharged When of floods into climate the and the be- previously causing shrunkSHS disastrous evolved river, into leading consequences a to for new equilibrium the state, TRB society could society. again Once become the more stable and ters into the presentto desert, tens while of kilometers those intoriver after the channel the desert, shifts 10th and and century thement zero-flow direct AD abandonment conditions reason are (Zu occurred for found et in theirinto several al., the abandonment warm 2001). 8th was and Another century wet. peak As AD discussed of when in settle- the the previous climate section, had this just abandonment was turned partly be abandoned (remember Fig. 4b and our discussion ondominated the by ruins natural in factors Sect. such 4.2). ascomparing climate the variability river and system river thousands course ofand change. years b, When ago to one the can presentseparated one see river shown that in systems Fig. the and 3a shrunk ancientdence also far South comes into Tarim from the River archeological desertto broke research, to which the up showed its 10th into that current century the several location. AD ruins smaller The and belonging evi- before are mostly located tens to several hundred kilome- irrigation was quite sensitivetherefore to led climate to fluctuations high and vulnerabilityical river of change. society channel When to changes the naturalmain which river climate river course variability shrunk and upstream migrated hydrolog- of substantiallychanged a situation or settlement, and when societies primitive had the agriculture no would tail capability thus section to collapse of adapt and to settlements the would bank and cultivation was constrained to the riparian area. This way of cultivation and the fallow period couldto last the between technological 4 limitation, to diversion 5 canals could and not even be up dug to too 10 yr far from (Han, the 2010). river Owing isolated from each other.and Due politics, to the each absence isolatedTRB of before city-state mutual 19th could connection centuryancient be of could agricultural both be regarded oasis economy considered states as within asa separate the a primitive TRB, SHSs, set cultivation farmlands method were of and called owned isolated Chuangtianis the by was small farmers practiced. leveled and SHSs. In in this In August method, the seeds the and land are then sowed a in hole theuntil harvest is next time spring dug in and on July. Abandonment since the and that disuse river time of bank the the land for farmers were flood had very nothing irrigation. common, and to The do system sophistication (Han, 2010). 3.3 Natural dominated socio-hydrological system During the 2000 yrveloped long within history leading the up TRB to were the basically 18th restricted century, the to societies living that within de- oases, which were agricultural powers suchwere as the changed Arabs, backa Huihus to similar and grazing, phenomenon Mongols. which happenedas The reduced several the times agricultural 4th the century before fields AD capacity as (i.e.was well. of during once the For food controlled Eastern instance, Jin by supply. as Dynasty),when Tubo In the irrigated early (which lower agriculture is fact, Tarim along River an the Basin southor ancient edge an name of even TRB for more partially Tibet primitive retrogressedthe in to socio-economic grazing formation. Chinese size With history), of the development the in SHS reverse, was reduced, with a reduced population and a deterioration of its pattern again (Shu et al., 2007). according to recent archeologicalthe research 11th (Shu century et and al., anotherwas 2007). around in One the happened the 13th around century cool-dry (see regime. Fig. 4b), Also, when during the that climate time the TRB was controlled by non- ments were not found until the 10th century AD when the warm-wet climate changed 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | erent kinds of stations for reclamation ff 12768 12767 ectively managed by strong eastern agricultural dynasties such ff of humans The first sub-period was from the 18th century to late 19th century. During the 1760s At local scales, social factors could also play a significant role in the evolution of army stationed in the region.and There settlement, were i.e. four di a soldier station run by the resident army, a household station run tury. Generally, the utilization levelthe of 18th century, water the resources development of wassince the low, socio-economy the and was 18th rather especially sluggish. century,of before However, the technology, TRB social society organizationsub-periods. has and experienced fast management, growth which due can to be reforms the divided Qing into Dynasty two broughtence together of Tsarist the Russia. nomadic A civilizations reclamation and and settlement overcame policy the was adopted influ- to supply the Only four main source riversKaidu-Kongqi, were as shown left, in namely Fig. the 3c. rivers of Aksu,4.2 Yarkand, Hoton and Expansion of traditional agriculture untilIn mid-20thcentury the TRB traditional agricultural society lasted for a long period until the mid-20th cen- face area to hundredsPoplars of and square Tamarisks. kilometers, But with restorationwater of an natural extraction abundant vegetation within coverage was of the limitedextension Euphrates source by of increasing and farmland. upstream During areasoccurred the of 1910s within the to the Tarim 1940s,regional lower River at eco-hydrological due Tarim least system River to eight (Han, and the majorsource 2010, channel caused rivers 2012). shifts gradually the In lost the degradationWeigan contact mid-20th of River with century, the in the several mainstream the local of middle and the part Tarim River, of including the basin and Kashigar River in the upper part. 19th century and early 20thtern, century, which the resulted climate in changed increased backWeigan flow again River in to in the warm-wet mainstream the pat- and middlechannel source Tarim of rivers, Basin. the such Tarim The River as increased into the twointo discharge courses one expanded within the again the Luntai main when County, but it it flowed merged back out of Luntai, whereas Lake Lop Nor expanded its sur- the mainstream was the North Tarim River. At the end of the little ice age in the late mid-18th century) and thein Record 1821), of the Rivers Tarim in River system the presented West a Regions 7-source-1-mainstream (written pattern, by of which XU Song 4.1 Change of river systems During the 18thpeared, century, which the left mainstreamTRB. several of For smaller the the separated North South Tarim riverto Tarim River, a the systems River southward downstream in gradually movement, channel togetherAccording the disap- shifted with to frequently, southern which its historical led edge terminal record in lakes of the (i.e. books Lop of Nor) He-Yuan-Ji-Lue (Han, (written 2010). by JI Yun in the portant role in farmland growthwater from consumption the (Wei, 2008). riverside into the desert and led to increasing 4 Exploitation stage (from 18th century to mid-20th century): increasing impact and external social factors, the riseimpact and fall on of the eastern agricultural SHSs dynastiesWest had within Regions a were the great e TRB.as An the Han interesting and phenomenon the Tang, was thedeveloped farmland a that and higher population when increased level the significantlyties, of as the society social reclamation of productive arable land force.techniques by During through the the army the introduction from Han of middle China advanced andwater tools improved infrastructures agricultural Tang and dynas- expertise such (Liao, as 2011). More irrigation canals were constructed, which played an im- SHSs during some specificpresented periods. The a social new structure city-centeredof of pattern the city-states Tarim of within River the agricultural waswhich undoubtedly TRB activities reduced aggravated (Wei, as downstream 2008), more water waterMore and shortage was importantly, flow diverted and due for shrinkage to irrigation, the of interactions lower between river the reaches. TRB socio-hydrological system 5 5 25 15 20 10 20 25 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ), most 2 erent societies ff 12770 12769 A remarkable feature of the SHS during this period is that its spatial extent signifi- The second sub-period was from the late 19th century to the mid-20th century, dur- spectively, in the Alaer areaand by Korla the area 1st by Division the (lately became 2nd Alaer Division. City Supported since by 2002) large newly constructed diversion 4.3 Impact of industrial technology sinceSince mid-20th the century 1950s, especially afterindustrial the technologies were establishment introduced of into the thegraded People’s TRB to Republic and modern of traditional (i.e. agriculture China, industrialized) waslarge up- agriculture. scale With the irrigation aid infrastructures ofexpanded were modern (Jiang constructed technologies, et and al., farmlandpopulation 2005; area in Han, dramatically this 2012). period Asreclamation have shown grown areas in at operated Fig. a by 6, much the irrigated faster Xinjiang farmland rate and than Construction ever Corps before. were Two new developed, re- culture, more water wasobviously diverted influenced the for downstream. irrigationoasis As and scale a were the result, combined activities the andbasin ancient evolved of into scale. separated upstream a SHSs complex society and at intertwined the system at sub- support the civil warsChina and launched the a anti-Japanese reclamation War,precedented campaign the in from Government history the of and 1930s the highlyand to Republic influential. similar the of As to 1940s, a during which result thebasins was farmland and Qing un- area upper Dynasty, most Tarim increased River reclamation fast, area concentrated (Xie, in 2008). source river cantly enlarged. With progress ofwithin politics, TRB economy melted and into culture, the the Chinese di nation gradually. Also, with the expansion of agri- in Hotan areas (anpopulation important continued to agricultural grow, countygrants, as in refugees Fig. south and 6 TRB) shown. idletural decreased The counties persons while floating like occupied Hotan population, the over andthreat including half Pishan to mi- (a social the nearby stability total county), (Xie, and population 2008). became In in a order agricul- serious to hidden settle down the floating population and retrogressed back to natural landscapes of grassland. For instance, the irrigated land development of TRB society. The expansion of farmland ceased and some farmland ing which Chinawestern had powers experienced (i.e. one OpiumAllied hundred Forces war invasion years in in 1900, of 1840,Japanese First War, unrest. Sino–Japanese Second which War was The Opium in also 1904–1905, called War invasion(i.e. Second Anti-Japanese the in from War, Sino– Taiping in Heavenly 1860, Kingdom 1937–1945) War and Eight-Nation in civilthrew 1851–1864, wars the the Revolution Qing of monarchy, 1911 wars that betweenbefore over- warlords, two and Kuomingtang–Communist after Wars thealong Anti-Japanese with War natural in disasters 1927–1936 and social and problems 1946–1949 such respectively), as diseases interrupted normal by WANG Shunan in earlyirrigated 20th century land in with TRB further was additionsChina, over in one 11 subsequent millionmu mu decades), equals in 1/15 earlyof of 20th a which century hectare, was (mu and newly is so reclaimed anbasins 11 during area millionmu and unit Qing the is in upper Dynasty about Tarim 7500 and km River located area. mainly in source river for thousands of yearsaroused in and China. both With agricultural thiscantly, which production tax in and reform turn promoted the governmentconstruction agriculture enthusiasm revenue development (Wang, increased of by more 1971). farmers signifi- reclamation Also, was introduced and innovative canal such farming as and betterreform seeds, engineering and advancement new methods of crops, technology were led andagricultural to yield, the the which reached expansion Qanat the of irrigation average farmlandQing per and system. unit Dynasty increased yield Social (Lu of and central China Fan, at 2009). the According end of to records and maps of Xinjiang (written of the Eight Bannersoperated (a by military criminals organization and in2007). Another Qing political important Dynasty), prisoners policy and exiledwhich reform a linked from was transfer taxation Tan-Ding-Ru-Mu central station with in China thevious the area census (Fang late based of et 18th tax farmland century, al., system instead was of called number Head of Tax people. or The Poll pre- tax which had been used by farmers who had migrated from central China, a Hui station operated by idle people 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | the discharge to the ff ). The seasonal flow reap- 12772 12771 water was released from Daxihaizi reservoir to Taitema Lake 3 ) in 1999 according to the Statistical Yearbook of Xinjiang (1999 version). 2 (Gao et al., 2007). ff balance The most direct measure to save the green corridor was emergency water trans- In addition, the construction of reservoirs changed the hydrological and eco- Industrial products, such as fertilizers and pesticides, began to be applied in agri- Also, agricultural production has dramatically increased due to implementation of http://news.h2o-china.com/html/2012/11/110765_1.shtml ( fers, which were implementedrestoration from the of Bosten riparian Lake vegetation.wet to trend Since the (Fan 1987, terminal et TRB Taitema al.,which Lake 2011). has is for The been a wetting experiencing source signalRiver a is river during strong of warm- in the Tarim Kaidu-Kongqi Rivertance natural River and and Basin, period. has lost been Now contact usedLake. it with for Emergency the emergency rejoined water mainstream the water transfers of2000 from mainstream transfers Tarim Bosten and with Lake have 4 to human billionm been Taitema assis- completed a total of 13 times since set up to leaddiversion the quotas were integrated assigned for management each ofwere district, implemented a water to series save resources of water water from within conservancyrestoration irrigation. the projects Estimated was total TRB. 10.8 billionYuan investment Water towards during this the past 11 yr (2001–2012). 5 Degradation and recovery stage (since mid-20 century): getting backAfter to two centuries of rapid development,substantially the altered hydrological by system within humans. TRB Theserious has over-exploitation degradation been of of water the resources naturalof has ecological desert. caused system Since together with thedownstream significant Tarim 1990s, River invasion attracted ecological considerable disaster attentionthe from along researchers, public the journalists, and so-called finally green the corridor government. of In 1992, the Tarim River Basin Authority was natural vegetation cover (mainly consistingthat Euphrates used Poplars to and separate Tamarisksdie-o forests) Taklimakan Desert and Kumtagh Desert experienced massive ing of the groundwater level and the drying-up of the terminal lake. As a consequence, downstream river and a 321 km stretch of river dried up quickly, contributing to a lower- in the source and2010). upper Tarim areas, especially during the dryenvironmental season systems (Wang considerably. et According al., to(2012 version), the by Statistics 2012 Yearbook there offor were Xinjiang society 125 since reservoirs they withinalso the provide TRB. reduce water They flood for are agriculture, risk. important systems, industry, leading At and to the serious household same ecological use,struction and time, and and environmental the problems. operation For of reservoirs instance, Daxihaizi changed con- Reservoir the in the pattern 1970s of cut river o culture since the 1950s,quantities which of began sulfate, sodium, tothe calcium, cause soil nitrogen serious in and water the phosphorushigher form quality have salinity of been problems. and fertilizers applied Vast other and to formsduced these groundwater of have table leached contamination rise into in led to rivers groundwater, secondary resulting and salinization, in lakes. which Also, happened irrigation frequently in- that existed at the end ofsion the of Qing agriculture Dynasty (i.e. elevated 1900s)increased irrigation (Lu water and requirements Fan, consumption dramatically. 2009). Since The ledand the expan- to Kaidu-Kongqi 1950s, the from the disconnection thein of mainstream the rivers of lower of the reachesto was Kashigar, Tarim 11 3–5 River. Weigan m m Groundwater in in table 1986, themore depth and 1950s than in but 2 m has the in dropped middle 2004 to reaches (Feng 7–10 et it m al., dropped in 2005). from 1982 0.5–0.6 and m in the 1950s to 10 000 km new farming methods,Statistic seeds, Yearbook of modern Xinjiang machines (1999century and version), had crop techniques. reached production 150 According per to mu to 200 in kg, the the which late was 20th much higher than that of 50 to 75kg canals, the total farmland area of TRB has now reached 16 millionmu (approximately peared in the dry downstream channel and the empty Taitema Lake was recharged 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | (Deng, 2005; Chen et al., 2007b). 2 erent stages during which the human– ff 12774 12773 erent drivers, first the natural hydrometeorological ff humans and water The SHS within TRB can be seen as an intertwined system consisting of the human, However, ecological recovery was only realized under special human intervention, ous natural factors (e.g. broad climate, underlying geology, ecological system etc.) and Within the inner circle itself theinner water eco-environment and in human parts athat interact complex via may way, their which water-centered eventually may beinteractions be quantified can represented be through by compactly detailed depicted relationships Taiji socio-hydrological by is a a studies. special Taiji wheel, These concept as inbecause shown Chinese in philosophy, of which Fig. means interactions 8a. the among TheThe evolution of term two the a poles system two are oppositedominates contradictory the components but system (Yin also evolution, but and depend thespecific Yang on Yin conditions poles). pole each and can other. vice convert Generally versa. to The Yang Yang pole pole outer under environment some could be composed of vari- derstand and put in context the historical socio-hydrology of thehydrological and Tarim River environmental subsystems. Basin. As illustratedcle in is Fig. a 8a, the specific inner social-hydrologicalouter solid system dashed cir- under circle study is (in its this environmental case system the composed TRB), of and both the humans and nature. water relationship is dominated by di factors and then human factors, duedirect to the human–water upgrading interaction of could the be socialwith productive interpreted all force. by The the water consumption naturalcies) processes, and influencing societal the factors supply (e.g.The of climate, direct water geology, social resources water regime being consumptionhuman–water outer and and relationship. environmental poli- the In conditions. relevant ordera factors to socio-hydrological together system, better in reflect understand this the the section nature co-evolution we of process introduce a of concept that may help un- In the last few sectionshuman–water we relationship have within presented TRB essential during the featuresThe various of historical SHS the development co-evolution stages. within of the the TRB has experienced di 6 Taiji–Tire Model: a general framework for analyzing the interactions between water was intended to beter used for for natural newly vegetation reclaimed wasagriculture. usually farmland. A defeated The by set wish the to of impulsetrative, provide systematic to and wa- measures make institutional money including through aspectsrequirement engineering, in should economic, a be adminis- sustainable manner. designed to provide the ecological water especially emergency water transfers.it The is water pushed transfer by canan the be emergency administrative implemented measure rather power only than of if aconservancy the sustainable projects institutional were central measure. originally government. Also, planned the Besides, tobe water save released it water to is from the irrigated just downstream farmlands, for to ecological recovery. However, in practice the saved to their original vegetation2004; Chen but et would al., 2006, beis 2007b). substituted essential Nevertheless, the for by reappearance preventing of herbsdesert the the or (Gao green re-merging et corridor shrubs of al., 2007). the (Sunrecharge Besides, Taklimakan water et and desert quality al., shows has with also a the improvedence decreasing through Kumtagh of fresh trend water 750 in to thearea 1000 of m lateral groundwater from direction, table the with rise riverside, (Deng, a which 2005; range Li basically of et spatially influ- al., coincides 2010). with the groundwater depth in2–4 the m, lower which enabled reach thegreen of regrowth corridor the of Euphrates covering Tarim Poplars, River anGrass Tamarisks vegetation and increased area responded reeds from of faster in 8–10 to overThe the m the areas 800 km to rising that groundwater used table to than be covered woody by plants. Euphrates Poplars are less likely to be restored to form a large water surface of over 200 square kilometers in the late 1990s. The 5 5 25 15 20 10 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ecting water ff 12776 12775 ects have for long dominated the fundamental landscape of the eco-hydrological en- Therefore, when social productive force is low and the human–water relationship is From the historic viewpoint, the social productive force is the key driver for human The co-evolution of the human–water system is therefore governed by both internal The co-evolution of a specific SHS is driven by the inner Taiji and the outer Tire si- ff On the other hand,e natural factors such as climatevironment change and and impacted geographic/geological humansuch societies as living on hydrology it. andand The gradually meteorology variability formed restricted of specific regulation natural theculture of factors and spatial behaviors values. extent and thoughts of which human evolved into activities dominated by natural factors, changesor of meteorological the SHS variations usually and happened followed with the hydrological social responses. With the upgrade of humans to cultivate larger landrevolution area has than enabled that humans during to theelectricity use Age and machines of and the Copper. the The invention sametermined industrial of goes the computers. for productive The discoveries relationship of upgrade andpolitics of governed and the social the formation productive of human–environment force cultures, relationship de- economy, including human–water relationship. factors, divided into natural factors suchand as climate, geological weather, vegetation, condition, soil, and landforms as social shown factors in the such outer as tirequantity in culture, and Fig. policies, quality, 8a, and wars, drive also the diseases, According co-evolution by of to embracing the our the SHS Taiji–Tire by key Model, a rolethe the two of natural key the variation drivers social and for productive social the force. development productive of force any are givensocietal SHS. development. For example, the invention and application of iron tools enabled ple, the growth ofdevelopment in the the social Mississippi productivechanges River force in Basin, water has quality which underpinned (Turnerresents and in 200 the Rabalais, yr the abilities 2003). of of end The humans social has agricultural tobeyond productive exploit some caused natural force critical resources. significant rep- However, threshold when value, it it advances may drive the SHS into a new stage. External force, which is determined by technology, social regimes, social scales etc. For exam- regard to the evolution of the outer tire, with the key driver being the social productive and techniques, materials, resourcescept and of social equipment) productive force, are includingtechnically encompassed those indispensable management for by and production. the It engineering is functions con- societal an organization, integrated measure management, of and tool, soforce technology, driving on, the which evolution serves of as the an SHS. important internal and external drivers. Consideringing the the nature interactions of between water the quantitythe human–water and water quality relationship, condition and includ- can human be water considered consumption, stationary from a long-term perspective without interactions between humans and wateractivities, assume various which forms are viamotivations. water dominated consumption In by some human political-economicproductive behavior discourses force (e.g. and is marxism), their assumed aforces personal to so-called which and be social are the societal applied principal by driver people of in societal the evolution. production All process those (body and brain, tools outer tire (see Fig. 8b),Taiji–Tire Model. and for this reason the framework we havemultaneously. proposed From the is outer called Tire, environmental(and change, change) especially will directly climate impact variability theter hydrological system part within in a the specific SHS innerbetween (e.g. Taiji), water wa- which and will humans. then Therefore, impactportant climate external the variability/change force human can for part the serve evolution by as of way a an of given im- interactions SHS. For the inner Taiji, all the internal could itself be a Taiji style systemevolutionary as system well driven (e.g. by a its SHS ownof operating internal at the interactions, a but larger study this scale), is i.e. ofenvironment an beyond shall a the scope always specific force SHS thewheel evolution forces such of the as inner movement the of Taiji SHS, inner TRB. just tire. The like Notionally, we the change/evolution can tire of call of the the the outer outer circle as the human factors (e.g. other SHSs, neighboring regions or states). The outer environment 5 5 25 15 20 10 25 15 20 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | erent erent ff ff erences. Large and com- ff 12778 12777 erent social economic formations, which are expressed in terms ff century) 20th century in TRB) TRB) in the human–water relationship of industrialized agricultural SHSs. The industrial revolution haspractical completely activities. Also, changed it theural changed intensity environment. how and The people extent social-organization understandproduction of and of themselves human for and the modern the SHS societiesplicated nat- hydraulic must with projects urban be and and reservoirs suitable have ruralgradient been for di has constructed industrial and been the greatly artificial intensified.other water The modern comprehensive tools application of havesevere fertilizers raised soil and agricultural salinization and production water remarkably pollution. and The have society caused has become totally dominant cultural SHS is dominated by thedominate variability the of SHS natural dynamics factors at but human the activities local could scale. 7.3 Industrialized agriculture socio-hydrological system (early to mid-20th The highly developed traditionalfeatures agriculture in since terms of the scale 18thgan and century coupled to human–water exhibited be relationship. di Diversion constructedpattern canals be- but of on farmland a fromcreased limited linear and scale, its to which scale planarinstitutional led was and distribution. to technological enlarged, The advancement. a which Generally complexity transition was the of evolution still of of the limited the traditional SHS agri- by spatial in- social factors such as to small scale andprimary low driving social force productive for forcenatural the (and factors, evolution thus especially of low climatic primitive and complexity hydrological agricultural of factors. SHS SHS). is The 7.2 the variability of Traditional agriculture socio-hydrological system (from the 18th to early abandoned settlements suggests the vulnerability of the primitive agricultural SHS due solve water shortage problems. Therefore,constrained to the be size within of a primitive very small agricultural size SHSs range. was In the TRB, the existence of numerous Before the advent of theing, agriculture which industry, had people a lived negligible impact onFor on fishing, the the hunting evolutionary natural and ecosystem study pick- and ofearliest also example SHS, the of water we a system. simple will SHSagricultural ignore is the activities, this primitive simple agricultural social tools SHS economic that andlinearly included formation. primitive low distributed The social level along organization. rivers The and farmlandswithin restricted are TRB within primitive isolated agricultural areas society).and The (such societies land as relied the resources. principally oases No on technologies local water and management tools had been developed to SHS, traditional agricultural SHS, industrialized agricultural SHS, and urbanized7.1 SHS. Primitive agricultural socio-hydrological system (before the 18th century in The historical analysis oftinct the features coevolution of of the di theof SHS system within characteristics, TRB has human–waterWe brought relationship, have suggested out and that dis- the the co-evolutionaryhistory dominant changes of driving that the have force. Tarim occurred Basin can inment be the of summarized 2000 a yr in special concept terms in ofbecause Chinese the of philosophy Taiji–Tire relating interactions Model, to among a the refine- system co-evolutionthat components. of a Accordingly, the the system socio-hydrological study system hastypes shown within according the to TRB the can social be economic classified into formation four of di society, i.e. primitive agricultural by social productive force) became the main driver for the system shift. 7 Summary social productive force, the SHS grew to become larger and social factors (represented 5 5 20 25 15 10 25 20 15 10 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | ects of water ff ect of synthesized governing in ff erent and the eco-hydrological ff erent features. Modern cities are much larger ff 12780 12779 en, W., Crumley, C., Dearing, J., Hibbard, K., Leemans, R., ff This research was funded by the National Science Foundation of China in the Tarim River during the past 50 years, J. Arid Land, 3, 220–230, 2011. ff resource development and useGeol., 48, in 202–210, the 2005. Tarim River Basin of northwestern China, Environ. of Tarim Basin, Environ. Prot. Xinjiang, 1, 9–16, 1981. a case study in the early Qing Dynasty of China, Sci. China Ser. D, 50, 411–421, 2007. runo Redman, C., and Schimel, D.:the Sustainability history or of collapse: humans what and can the we rest learn of from nature?,water Ambio, integrating deliveries, 36, Adv. 522–527, Water 2007. Sci., 16, 586–593, 2005. Tarim River Valley, China, Environ. Sci., 27, 24–28, 2007a. ecological restoration int he545, lower 2007b. reaches of Tarim River, China, Acta Ecol. 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). 30

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). (a) (b) (a) The landscape of Overview of Tarim River Basin and its river system (adapted from Hao, 2009). Figure 2. Overview of Tarim River basin and River Figure 2. Overview of Tarim Fig. 2. cn/china/2009-03-16/165869875.shtml http://my.opera.com/frampa62/albums/showpic.dml?album Fig. 1. 845 846

http://my.opera.com/frampa62/albums and (b) the lower reaches of Tarim river (adapted from (adapted from river of Tarim and (b) the lower reaches 03-16/165869875.shtml Figure 1. The landscape of (a) main st (a) main of The landscape Figure 1. 841 842 843 844 839 840 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 32

33 TRB in

century; (c) TRB (c) TRB century; TRB today (a) th (c) st tens of thousands of years: (a) TRB in riod is illustrated with e reconstructed record 2000 years in Tarim 2000 years in Tarim (c) nd years ago); (b) TRB in 4 to 5 numbers of ruins, which indicates the TRB in 4 to 5th century; (b) (c) temperature variation. To be noted, the (c) temperature (b) periods according to th andonments during past andonments China’s history; (b) numbers of ruins, which 31

, 2010), of which the wet pe Figure 3. Evolution of Tarim river system during pa river system Figure 3. Evolution of Tarim (about ten thousa late Pleistocene Fan,1991;Bai, 1994) today.(adopted from 12788 12787 et al. 851 852 853 854 855 temperature variation. To be noted, the whole period (c) , 2002; Ge et al. (a) (b) main imperial dynasties in China’s history;

Figure 4. Climate change and settlements ab change and settlements Figure 4. Climate River basin: (a) main imperial dynasties in River basin: (a) main settlements; of human indicates the abandonment whole period was divided into wet and dry sub- of precipitation (Yang grey color. grey color. Climate change and settlements abandonments during past 2000 yr in Tarim River Evolution of Tarim river system during past tens of thousands of years: (a) 856 857 858 859 860 861 862

Fig. 4. Basin: was divided into wet and(Yang dry et sub-periods al., according 2002; to Ge the et reconstructed al., record 2010), of of precipitation which the wet period is illustrated with grey color. abandonment of human settlements; Fig. 3. late Pleistocene (about ten(adopted thousand from Fan, years 1991; ago); Bai, 1994). 847 848 849 850 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | 34

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