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RENEWABLE ENERGY Medium-Term Market Report 2012 Please note that this PDF is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at http://www.iea.org/termsandconditionsuseandcopyright/ Market Trends and Projections to 2017 2012 OECD/IEA, © 2012 OECD/IEA, © RENEWABLE ENERGY Medium-Term Market Report 2012 Market Trends and Projections to 2017 2012 OECD/IEA, © INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency’s aims include the following objectives: Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy effi ciency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic © OECD/IEA, 2012 Spain 2012 International Energy Agency Sweden 9 rue de la Fédération Switzerland 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Turkey OECD/IEA, www.iea.org United Kingdom © Please note that this publication United States is subject to speci c restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission The terms and conditions are available online at also participates in http://www.iea.org/termsandconditionsuseandcopyright/ the work of the IEA. FOREWORD FOREWORD This Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report is the first IEA publication dedicated to projecting global renewable energy developments over the next five years. While other IEA reports, the World Energy Outlook 2011 and Energy Technology Perspectives 2012, have identified renewable energy as a crucial pillar of the long-term global energy mix, this report analyses the complexities and variables that will shape the transition of the sector through 2017. It completes a new series of medium-term reports for the four main primary energy sources: oil, gas, coal and renewable energy. This publication comes at a time of profound changes in renewable energy markets and uncertainties in the face of both economic crisis and subsidy reductions in some key markets. Still, renewable electricity generation is growing rapidly and deployment opportunities are expanding. The renewable industry is going through a period of dramatic upheaval, with supply chains restructuring and shifting geographically. Meanwhile, several key markets are deliberating significant changes to renewable policies and deeper electricity market reforms. Now, more than ever, energy market stakeholders need clear indications of the major drivers and barriers to renewable deployment, with analysis that combines country-level studies with wider technology and financing assessments. Ultimately, renewable electricity generation is expected to continue its rapid expansion over the medium term, buoyed by supportive policy and market frameworks as well as increased economic attractiveness in a variety of geographies and situations. It is striking that emerging and developing markets outside the OECD are driving much of the expected growth, with their contribution to accelerate over the coming years. Moreover, the overall growth of renewable sources reflects the continued maturing of these technologies, with deployment transitioning from support driven markets to new and potentially more competitive segments in other countries. This report forecasts renewable energy generation and capacity across eight technologies – hydropower, bioenergy for power, onshore wind, offshore wind, solar photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP), geothermal and ocean. This first edition focuses on renewable energy in the power sector, though solar thermal heating is also examined. Future editions will aim to expand the analysis, to include renewable heat and biofuels for transport (for this year, the latter remains in the Medium-Term Oil Market Report, to be published in October). The outlook presented in this report reflects several years of data gathering, modelling and research efforts. Renewable energy represents an emerging and fast-growing area of energy market analysis. Forecasting renewable markets will require continued advances in the reporting and collection of renewable technology statistics as well as increased detail on a widening set of geographic markets. The analysis has benefitted from an extensive review process that included input from governments, industry and other international organisations. Given the oftentimes localised nature of renewable energy markets, these insights have been crucial. This report and future editions endeavour to provide a better understanding of the workings of renewable energy markets and enable stakeholders to make critical decisions that lead to more secure and sustainable energy mixes. This report is published under my authority as Executive Director of the IEA. Maria van der Hoeven MEDIUM-TERM RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET REPORT 2012 3 2012 OECD/IEA, © ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication was prepared by the International Energy Agency’s Renewable Energy Division (RED). Zuzana Dobrotková and Michael Waldron were the primary authors of this report, with Michael Waldron managing the project. Paolo Frankl, head of the Renewable Energy Division, provided valuable guidance and input to this work. Didier Houssin, Director of Energy Markets and Security, and Markus Wråke, Senior Analyst, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology, provided additional guidance and input. This report has benefitted from the extensive contributions of colleagues in the Renewable Energy Division: Adam Brown, Anselm Eisentraut, Yoshiki Endo, Carlos Gascó, Ada Marmion, Simon Müller, and Cédric Philibert. Other IEA colleagues have also provided important contributions to this work, particularly Sun Joo Ahn, Alexander Antonyuk, Manuel Baritaud, Marco Baroni, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Dagmar Graczyk, Veronika Gyuricza, Julie Jiang, Alexander Murley, Jonathan Sinton, Cecilia Tam, Laszlo Varro and David Wilkinson. This work benefitted from extensive review and comments from the IEA Standing Group on Long- Term Co-operation, Renewable Energy Working Party, renewable energy Implementing Agreements, more than 20 members of the Renewable Industry Advisory Network and Board and experts from partner countries, especially Brazil, China and India. The authors would also like to thank Erin Crum for skilfully editing the manuscript, as well as the IEA publication unit, in particular, Muriel Custodio, Astrid Dumond, Rebecca Gaghen, Angela Gosmann, Cheryl Haines, Bertrand Sadin, and Marilyn Smith, for their assistance. Questions or comments should be addressed to Michael Waldron ([email protected]) or Zuzana Dobrotková ([email protected]). 2012 OECD/IEA, 4 MEDIUM-TERM RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET REPORT 2012 © TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword .................................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... 4 Executive summary ................................................................................................................... 11 Medium-term outlook: OECD Americas ...................................................................................... 19 Summary ................................................................................................................................. 19 United States .......................................................................................................................... 20 Other OECD Americas countries ............................................................................................. 29 References .............................................................................................................................. 31 Medium-term outlook: OECD Asia-Oceania ................................................................................ 33 Summary ................................................................................................................................. 33 Japan ......................................................................................................................................

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