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Long Term Recommendation: Avanti Feeds Ltd. Rating: BUY Target Price: INR 3,306 All Set to Launch Into the Next Orbit

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Long Term Recommendation: Avanti Feeds Ltd. Rating: BUY Target Price: INR 3,306 All Set to Launch Into the Next Orbit Edelweiss Investment Research CMP: INR 2,396 Long Term Recommendation: Avanti Feeds Ltd. Rating: BUY Target Price: INR 3,306 All set to launch into the next Orbit. Upside: 38% Avanti Feeds (Avanti) is a leading manufacturer of high quality shrimps feed and processor & Nitin Awasthi exporter of shrimps. The company’s products are synonymous with quality and consistency, Research Analyst which has helped it establish its credentials among farmers across India. Key growth drivers [email protected] envisaged to propel the company’s growth are: i) multiple sector tailwinds; ii) robust growth Praveen Sahay in the shrimp feeds space with increasing area under cultivation; iii) healthy capacity Research Analyst augmentation with aggressive utilization goals; iv) sustenance of leadership in the feeds [email protected] space with continued steady market share gains; and v) technical & marketing tie up with Thai Union to bolster value-added offerings. Hence, we estimate Avanti to clock PAT CAGR of 26% over FY18-20 with healthy RoCE of 56%. Initiate coverage with ‘BUY’ and target price of INR3,306. Royalty among shrimp feed produces Avanti has been in the shrimp feeds business for more than a decade with 43% market share, which is steadily moving towards 50%. The company has established its credentials among farmers across India by virtue of its products’ quality and consistency. Avanti has capitalized on the boom that came in after the introduction of L. vannamei in 2009 and has grown its feed business 2x every year. The company is running at all most full utilization and has recently added 1,75,000MT capacity, taking its total capacity to 6,00,000MT. Bloomberg: AVNT:IN Augmenting capacity to become largest shrimp processer in India 52-week 2,940.00 / 842.00 Since 2009, the company has increased capacity 15x and maintained utilization level above range (INR): 70% since 2013. Avanti had a processing capacity of 7,000MT and in Q3FY18 it has started a Share in issue new 15,000MT facility capable of making high value-added partially or completely cooked 5 (cr): products. Thus, it now boasts of one of the largest processing capacities in India and is slated to be the largest shrimp exporter in India by FY20. The facitiy has come on stream in Q3FY18 M cap (INR cr): 10,881 and has already clocked 1.5x (7,749MT) of its 2017 output (5,155MT) with one quarter still to Avg. Daily Vol. go. We estimate the company to utilise 100% of its capacity within the next two years. 216 BSE/NSE :(‘000): Tailwinds galore: Industry set to expand 20% in coming years Promoter 43.78 After Green and White Revolutions in India, it’s time for the Blue Revolution to exploit the huge Holding (%) potential in the fisheries sector. The government too has sharpened focus on development of this lucrative industry, in Budget 2019 allocated a dedicated fund of INR10,000cr to develop fisheries, aquaculture and animal husbandry. Moreover, MPEDA has set an aggressive target of 10,00,000 MT of shrimp output by 2020 from current 6,00,000 MT. And, industry leaders, in conjunction with MPEDA and experts, have developed policies, technology and roadmaps to achieve an export target of USD10bn by FY22. Propelled by these catalysts, we estimate the industry to clock 20% plus growth in coming years. Outlook and valuations: Attractive prospects & limited downside; initiate with ‘BUY’ Key drivers envisaged to spur Avanti are: 1) robust growth in shrimp feeds space with increasing area under cultivation; 2) rising shrimp processing capability with aggressive capacity utilization goals; 3) maintenance of leadership in the feeds space with sustained share gains; and 4) target to become India’s largest shrimp exporter. We initiate coverage on the stock with ‘BUY’ recommendation, valuing it at 20x FY20E P/E and arrive at a target price of INR3,306. Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Revenues (INR Cr) 2018 2733 3570 4965 6318 Rev growth (%) 13.3 35.4 30.6 39.1 27.3 EBITDA (INR Cr) 230 332 736 933 1202 Net Profit (INR Cr) 155 226 497 625 814 P/E (x) 71.0 51.0 22.9 18.8 14.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 47.0 32.7 14.3 11.0 8.1 RoACE (%) 57.3 52.7 72.9 61.9 56.3 Date: 24th April 2018 RoAE (%) 45.8 40.3 56.3 44.8 40.5 1 GWM Avanti Feeds Ltd. Avanti Feeds is the undisputed leader in the shrimp industry with 43% market share and has one of the largest shrimp processing capacities in the country. The company is expected to grow much faster than the industry. Government focus on the sector will only propel its growth going forward Created one of the largest Market leadership in Strong Marco and Micro shrimp processing facility in shrimp feeds Tailwinds. the country CMP / FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E P/E Multiple FY20E EPS Target Revenue 2,018 2,733 3,570 4,965 6,318 ROAE (%) 45.8 40.3 56.3 44.8 40.5 14.5x (CMP) 165 2,396 EBITDA 230 332 736 933 1,202 20x (Target) 165 3,306 EBITDA margins 11.4 12.1 20.6 18.8 19.0 ROACE (%) 57.3 52.7 72.9 61.9 56.3 PAT 153 213 474 578 750 At CMP, FY20E P/E is At Target Price, 14.5X FY20E P/E is 20x Upside of 38% 2 GWM Avanti Feeds Ltd. Risk-reward extremely favourable Assuming 82% utilization in shrimp feed (new capacity) and 105% utilization in shrimp processing along with margins slightly below previous Price Target INR 3,306 peak levels, we arrive at an EPS estimate of INR 165 for FY20. We assign 20x P/E and arrive at target price of INR 3,306. Assuming 82% utilization in shrimp feed (new capacity) and 150% Bull utilization in shrimp processing (addition of capacity), we arrive at an EPS 22x FY20E EPS INR 4,008 estimate of INR182 for FY20. We assign 22x P/E and arrive at target price of INR4,008. Assuming 82% utilization in shrimp feeds (new capacity) and 105% Base utilization in shrimp processing along with margin slightly below previous INR 3,306 20x FY20E EPS peak levels, we arrive at EPS estimate of INR165 for FY20. We assign 20x P/E and arrive at target price of INR3,306. Assuming 77% utilisation in shrimp feed (new capacity) and 105% Bear utilization in shrimp processing along with margin slightly below previous 18x FY20E EPS INR 2,423 peak levels and inability to increase prices of feeds further, we arrive at EPS estimate of INR135 for FY20. We assign 18x P/E and arrive at target price of INR2,423. 3 GWM Avanti Feeds Ltd. Average Daily Turnover (INR cr) Stock Price (CAGR) Sensex, CAGR (%) 3 months 6 months 1 year 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 21 19 19 176% 90% 160% 81% 16% 9% 12% 7% Nature of Shrimp feed as well as shrimp processing are directly related to shrimp production in India. Industry Avanti has 43% market share within the shrimp feed space, which is estimated at INR8,500cr. The Opportunity Size company is also present within the process space, which is pegged at INR 26,000 cr. Both the segments are estimated to clock 20% growth in ensuing years. The company’s 4,25,000MT feed plant is running at full capacity, following which it has added Capital capacity of 1,75,000 MT for INR50cr. Avanti has also added 15,000MT shrimp processing capacity at a Allocation cost of INR120cr. Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA) has an aggressive target of an output of 1 Predictability million MT of shrimp by 2020 from the current 0.6 million MT and export target of USD10bn by 2022. Leadership in the domestic market provides high sustainability as it’s a brand built on trust and a framer Sustainability rarely shifts his feed, as it risks his crop. Also, he will lose the company’s valuable after-sales service. Disproportionate An exceptional brand built on trust over the years will propel Avanti going ahead. The company in the Future past has shown potential to grow at twice the industry rate. Business Value Drivers Value Business Business Avanti is focusing on processing business by setting up a huge capacity and tying up with Thai Union. Strategy & Also, it will continue to focus on profitable growth as reflected in the past as well within the feeds Planned business. Initiatives Near Term Healthy industry tailwinds coupled with rising demand for shrimp augur well for the company. Visibility Long Term Increase in India’s international market share, along with improvement in value added products and Visibility cost reduction drive will fuel Avanti’s top line and profitability going forward. 4 GWM Avanti Feeds Ltd. Focus Charts – Story in a nutshell Highest ROCE in the industry Largest market share within the feeds business ROCE of various segments Marketshare 60% 50% 50% 40% 35% 30% 25% 23% 43% 20% 20% 67% 10% 0% Farming Processing Value Feeds Avanti Addition Avanti Feeds Rest Largest capacity within feeds One of the Largest capacity with Processing Feed Capacity of Various Players ‘000 MT Shrimp Processing Capacity ‘000 MT 28 600 23 19 20 17 15 300 8 140 125 110 4 90 70 Cargill IFB Agro BMR group Waterbase Waterbase BMR Group Avanti feeds Avanti Feeds Growell Feeds Devi Seafoods Devi Seafoods Godrej Agrovet Sandhya Marines Nekkanti Seafoods Apex Frozen Foods Growth of 25% CAGR within shrimp feeds Growth of 91% CAGR within shrimp processing Shrimp Feeds Shrimps Processing 4614 1702 3626 1337 2880 2346 689 246 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Source: Company, Edelweiss Investment Research 5 GWM Avanti Feeds Ltd.
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