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Bodmin Local Plan 2031 Visum 2031 Strategic Model Update

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BODMIN LOCAL PLAN 2031 VISUM 2031 STRATEGIC MODEL UPDATE MAY 2016 BODMIN LOCAL PLAN 2031 VISUM 2031 STRATEGIC MODEL UPDATE Cornwall Council Final Project no: 70019328 Date: May 2016 – WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff The Forum Barnfield Road Exeter EX1 1QR Tel: +44 (0) 1392 229 769 Fax: +44 (0) 1392 229 701 www.wsp-pb.com QUALITY MANAGEMENT ISSUE/REVISION FIRST ISSUE REVISION 1 REVISION 2 REVISION 3 Remarks Draft for Issue Final Final Date 08/04/2016 17/05/2016 20/05/2016 Prepared by Gwyn Jones Gwyn Jones Gwyn Jones Signature Checked by Chris Rice Chris Rice Chris Rice Signature Authorised by Thea Wattam Thea Wattam Thea Wattam Signature Project number 70019328 70019328 70019328 ii PRODUCTION TEAM CORNWALL COUNCIL Strategic Transport Planner Rebecca Jackson Senior Technician Lee Marks WSP | PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF Principal Transport Planner Thea Wattam Senior Transport Planner Chris Rice Assistant Engineer Gwyn Jones CORMAC CONSULTANCY Team Leader Rick Clayton Bodmin Local Plan 2031 VISUM WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Cornwall Council Project No 141-00000-00 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................1 1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................2 1.1 BACKGROUND .............................................................................................. 2 1.2 PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT ........................................................................ 2 1.3 REPORT STRUCTURE................................................................................... 2 2 DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS.....................................................3 2.1 LOCAL PLAN ................................................................................................. 3 2.2 MODELLED SCENARIOS .............................................................................. 3 2.3 DEVELOPMENT ASSUMPTIONS................................................................... 3 3 MODEL METHODOLOGY ............................................................6 3.1 STEPS TAKEN ............................................................................................... 6 3.2 BASE MODEL ................................................................................................ 6 3.3 MATRIX DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................... 6 3.4 NETWORK UPDATE ...................................................................................... 6 3.5 TRIP ASSIGNMENT ....................................................................................... 7 3.6 RESULTS OUTPUT ........................................................................................ 7 3.7 FURTHER INFORMATION ............................................................................. 7 4 MATRIX DEVELOPMENT ..........................................................10 4.1 MATRIX DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................. 10 4.2 DEMAND MATRICES ................................................................................... 10 4.3 STEP 1 – TRIP GENERATION...................................................................... 11 4.4 STEP 2 – BACKGROUND GROWTH ........................................................... 11 4.5 STEP 3 – HGV GROWTH ............................................................................. 12 4.6 STEP 4 – DISTRIBUTION ............................................................................. 12 Bodmin Local Plan 2031 VISUM WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Cornwall Council Project No 141-00000-00 iv 4.7 STEP 5 – HIGHWAY ASSIGNMENT ............................................................. 14 4.8 MODEL CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION ................................................. 14 5 MODEL RESULTS .....................................................................15 5.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 15 5.2 JUNCTION CAPACITY ................................................................................. 15 5.3 TRAFFIC FLOWS ......................................................................................... 18 5.4 QUEUE LENGTH .......................................................................................... 19 5.5 JOURNEY TIMES ......................................................................................... 23 6 CONCLUSIONS ..........................................................................26 6.1 SUMMARY ................................................................................................... 26 6.2 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................. 26 FIGURES FIGURE 1: LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT SITES ACROSS BODMIN .........................4 FIGURE 2: PROPOSED HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS ...................................................4 FIGURE 3: PROPOSED EMPLOYMENT AREAS............................................................5 FIGURE 4: 'DO MINIMUM' & 'DO SOMETHING' TRANSPORT MEASURES ..................5 FIGURE 5: MAP OF TRANSPORT MEASURE LOCATIONS ..........................................8 FIGURE 6: BODMIN MODEL SCOPE WITH ZONE BOUNDARIES.................................9 FIGURE 7: JOURNEY TYPES INCLUDED WITHIN THE 2031 BODMIN MODELLED SCENARIOS ................................................................................ 10 FIGURE 8: AM & PM ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES (PCUS)..................................... 11 FIGURE 9: DEVELOPMENT LOCATIONS IN VISUM ZONES....................................... 13 FIGURE 10: VALUES OF TIME AND DISTANCE .......................................................... 14 FIGURE 11: JUNCTION CAPACITY OVERVIEW .......................................................... 16 FIGURE 12: AM JUNCTION CAPACITY ....................................................................... 17 FIGURE 13: PM JUNCTION CAPACITY ....................................................................... 17 FIGURE 14: AM ‘DO NOTHING’ MAIN FLOW OF TRAFFIC THROUGH BODMIN ........ 18 FIGURE 15: KEY LINKS TRAFFIC FLOW (AM) ............................................................ 18 FIGURE 16: KEY LINKS TRAFFIC FLOW (PM) ............................................................ 19 FIGURE 17 QUEUE LENGTHS PER SCENARIO (AM) ................................................. 19 FIGURE 18 QUEUE LENGTH IMAGES PER SCENARIO (AM) ..................................... 20 FIGURE 19 QUEUE LENGTHS PER SCENARIO (PM) ................................................. 21 FIGURE 20 QUEUE LENGTH IMAGES PER SCENARIO (PM) ..................................... 22 FIGURE 21: JOURNEY TIME ROUTES ........................................................................ 23 Bodmin Local Plan 2031 VISUM WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Cornwall Council Project No 141-00000-00 v FIGURE 22: AM JOURNEY TIME ................................................................................. 24 FIGURE 23: AM JOURNEY TIME COMPARISON......................................................... 24 FIGURE 24: PM JOURNEY TIME ................................................................................. 25 FIGURE 25 PM JOURNEY TIME COMPARISON.......................................................... 25 APPENDICES APPENDIX A – TEMPRO GROWTH FACTORS APPENDIX B – HGV (RTF GROWTH FACTORS) APPENDIX C – TRAFFIC FLOWS APPENDIX D – QUEUING APPENDIX E – CONGESTED JUNCTIONS Bodmin Local Plan 2031 VISUM WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Cornwall Council Project No 141-00000-00 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY WSP | Parsons Brinkerhoff have been commissioned to assess the effectiveness of proposed transport measures in support of the Bodmin Local Plan using the Bodmin Transport VISUM Model. The work builds on the base VISUM model (developed in 2015), and considers future scenarios in 2031. In order to understand how Bodmin is likely to operate should the local plan growth be realised, three separate scenarios were modelled: x ‘2031 do nothing’ scenario - maintains the current road layout of Bodmin and includes additional trips created by development sites already committed up to 2031. x ‘2031 do minimum’ scenario - includes traffic for committed and non-committed developments and also introduces committed transport schemes up to 2031. x ‘2031 do something’ model - includes all developments and both committed and non- committed transport measures up to 2031. In total, thirteen transport measures were tested; seven of these were tested in the ‘do minimum’ scenario and all thirteen in the ‘do something’ modelling. The three different 2031 scenarios (as defined above) allow for comparison between the different levels of intervention, and the effectiveness of measures in mitigating the effects of additional development traffic. Flow data, journey times, junction capacity data and queuing results were drawn from the modelling in order to assess how each network is likely to operate with 2031 flow levels. Results data from the AM and PM periods were compared for each scenario. The overall results show that with the additional development traffic in place the ‘2031 do something’ scenario network operates with higher journey times on some routes, and less spare junction capacity overall than the ‘2031 do minimum’ scenario. Increased delays are predominantly the result of the proposed implementation of signalised junctions to the network – in particular the Launceston Road / Cooksland Road junction in the ‘2031 do something’ scenario increases journey times by
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