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The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Deterring Gray Zone Coercion in the Maritime, Cyber, and Space Domains

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The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Deterring Gray Zone Coercion in the Maritime, Cyber, and Space Domains The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Deterring Gray Zone Coercion in the Maritime, Cyber, and Space Domains Scott W. Harold, Yoshiaki Nakagawa, Junichi Fukuda, John A. Davis, Keiko Kono, Dean Cheng, Kazuto Suzuki C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/CF379 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image by Kagenmi, Getty Images. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface To understand the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance against the backdrop of a rapidly changing international environment in the Asia-Pacific, RAND convened a conference in early 2017 focused on the use of gray zone coercion in the maritime, cyber, and space domains. The conference brought together leading U.S. and Japanese experts to unearth areas of shared understanding and divergence in thinking on the two sides of the Pacific when it comes to dealing with Chinese efforts to reshape the international order through coercion designed to fall below the level that would invoke a treaty response under the U.S.-Japan alliance. The conference found numerous opportunities for the allies to collaborate in improving shared understandings, reducing ambiguities that China can exploit, stigmatizing gray zone coercion, hardening defenses, and preparing to impose costs. Although it will not be easy to deter gray zone coercion in the maritime, cyber, and space domains, the allies face strong incentives to improve their coordination and strengthen deterrence now, before China or other actors change the status quo at the expense of Washington and Tokyo. This work was sponsored by the Government of Japan and conducted in the International Security and Defense Policy Center (ISDP) of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). ISDP analyzes changes in the international political, strategic, economic, and technological environment and helps the Department of Defense and other clients develop policies to shape the environment and advance U.S. and allied interests. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). iii Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures and Tables ........................................................................................................................ vii Figures .................................................................................................................................................... vii Tables ..................................................................................................................................................... vii Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... viii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter Summaries ...................................................................................................................................4 2. Using Land Forces to Deter Maritime Gray Zone Coercion: The Role of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Forces in the Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands ............................................................. 11 Background .............................................................................................................................................12 The Strategic Importance of the Nansei Islands ......................................................................................14 The Japanese Imperial Army in the Pacific Theater in World War II .....................................................15 Controlling the Sea from the Shore: The JGSDF’s New Surface-to-Air and Antiship Cruise Missile Capabilities .......................................................................................................................................16 The Threat to Japan’s Nansei Islands ......................................................................................................17 The Posture of the JGSDF in the Nansei Island Chain ...........................................................................17 The Limitations of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Forces ....................................................................18 The U.S.-Japan Alliance: An Indispensable Partnership for Peace .........................................................21 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................................21 3. A Japanese Perspective on the Role of the U.S.-Japan Alliance in Deterring—or, If Necessary, Defeating—Maritime Gray Zone Coercion ............................................................................ 23 Examples of China’s Gray Zone Tactics in the Maritime Domain .........................................................24 China’s Gray Zone Tactics as an Issue of Deterrence and Escalation Control .......................................27 Countering China’s Challenges Through a Competitive Strategy ..........................................................31 Specific Countermeasures to China’s Gray Zone Tactics .......................................................................32 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................................39 4. The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Deterrence in Cyberspace .......................................................... 41 Why Deterrence Is an Essential Component in an Effective Strategy to Deal with Cyber Threats ........42 Why Deterrence in Cyberspace Is Uniquely Challenging and Analogies to Other Forms of Deterrence in More-Traditional Environments Are Inadequate ..........................................................................42 Why an Effective Cyber Deterrence Policy Is Complex, and Therefore Must Be Comprehensive and Multifaceted ......................................................................................................................................43 Applying the Administration Strategic Framework to the U.S.-Japan Alliance .....................................44 Applying the Obama Administration’s Cyber Deterrence Policy to the U.S.-Japan Alliance ................45 A Description of What Types of Activities the Policy Seeks to Deter ...................................................45 Deterrence by Denial: Defense, Resiliency, and Reconstitution .............................................................47 Identification of What Is Important to Defend, What Should Be Resilient, and What Must Be Capable of Rapid Reconstitution ....................................................................................................................47 Bolstering Government Network Defenses .............................................................................................48 Defending Against Insider Threats ..........................................................................................................48 Sharing Cyber Threat Information and Intelligence ................................................................................49 Promoting Best Practices Through the National Institute of Standards and Technology Cybersecurity Framework ........................................................................................................................................51 The Function of Reconstitution as a Joint Alliance Opportunity for Deterrence ....................................51 Deterrence by Cost Imposition and Its Relationship to Deterrence by Denial ........................................52 Applying Economic Deterrence-by-Cost-Imposition Options to the U.S.-Japan Alliance .....................53 Applying Law Enforcement Deterrence-by-Cost-Imposition Options to the U.S.-Japan Alliance ........54 Applying the Building of Capabilities to Defend the Nation in Cyberspace to the U.S-Japan Alliance 55 Applying Activities That Support Deterrence in the U.S.-Japan Alliance ..............................................57 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................................60
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