April 2020 the Purpose of Strategic Assessment Is to Stimulate and Enrich the Public Debate on Issues That Are, Or Should Be, on Israel’S National Security Agenda
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Volume 23 | No. 2 | April 2020 The purpose of Strategic Assessment is to stimulate and enrich the public debate on issues that are, or should be, on Israel’s national security agenda. Strategic Assessment is a quarterly publication comprising policy-oriented articles written by INSS researchers and guest contributors. The views presented here are those of the authors alone. The Institute for National Security Studies is a public benefit company. Editor-in-Chief Itai Brun Editors Kobi Michael and Carmit Valensi Associate Editor Judith Rosen Head of the Editorial Advisory Board Amos Yadlin Editorial Advisory Board Shlomo Brom, Oded Eran, Azar Gat, Yoel Guzansky, Efraim Halevy, Mark A. Heller, Tamar Hermann, Ephraim Kam, Anat Kurz, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Itamar Rabinoivch, Judith Rosen, Shimon Shamir, Gabi Sheffer, Emmanuel Sivan, Shimon Stein, Asher Susser, Eyal Zisser Graphic Design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Tel Aviv University Graphic Design Studio Logo Design: b-way digital Printing: Digiprint Zahav Ltd., Tel Aviv The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) 40 Haim Levanon • POB 39950 • Tel Aviv 6997556 • Israel Tel: +972-3-640-0400 • Fax: +972-3-744-7590 • E-mail: [email protected] Strategic Assessment is published in English and Hebrew. © All rights reserved. ISSN 0793-8950 Contents Research Forum Emergency, Resilience, and the Big City Meir Elran, Carmit Padan, and Aya Dolev 3 Integrating the Counterintelligence Discipline into Israel’s Security Concept Avner Barnea 23 The Cognitive Campaign: Myth vs. Reality Michael Milstein 40 The American-Israeli Dialogue at the Start of the First Lebanon War Zaki Shalom 49 Compositional and Operational Flexibility in the “New Wars”: Military Mission Formations and Collective Action Eyal Ben-Ari 69 Policy Analysis The Geopolitical Effects of the Coronavirus Crisis Benjamin Miller 87 Responding to the Coronavirus Crisis in Iran: The Regime and the Public Raz Zimmt 93 The Yemeni Civil War in Flux: Where is it Headed? Ari Heistein 100 Saudi Arabia-China Relations: A Brave Friendship or Useful Leverage? Yoel Guzansky and Galia Lavi 108 Academic Survey National Identity: The Political Idea that Refuses to Disappear Vera Michlin-Shapir 115 Book Review Challenges to Israel’s Identity Pnina Sharvit Baruch 123 Sudden Attack: About the Past or the Future? David Siman-Tov 127 The Chief of Staff Put to the Test Gal Perl Finkel 132 A Note from the Editors The April 2020 issue is the second issue of Strategic Assessment: A Multidisciplinary Journal on National Security in its new, expanded format. The issue is published at the height of the COVID-19 crisis, which in many respects has changed the global order. Indeed, the pandemic has challenged accepted understandings about the essence of national security, and the influence of health and ecological crises on the resilience of nations and the entire international system. Although we did not plan to devote the issue to COVID-19, some of the articles that appear here deal with subjects whose importance has only increased with the coronavirus outbreak. These include, for example, the article by Meir Elran, Carmit Padan, and Aya Dolev on emergencies and resilience in cities; Avner Barnea’s article about the importance of incorporating the discipline of counterintelligence in national security perspectives; and Michael Milstein’s article about the battle for cognitive awareness. In addition to these articles, which bring unique critical perspectives to three areas relevant to management of the coronavirus outbreak, we chose to open the Policy Analysis section with Benjamin Miller’s article, which presents an initial analysis of the geopolitical implications of COVID-19. A second article, by Raz Zimmt, deals with how the regime in Iran, which thus far has been the most serious coronavirus epicenter in the Middle East, has managed the outbreak. Creating the foundation for new high-quality knowledge about such a complex and significant phenomenon obliges researchers to use accurate statistical information and, most of all, to have a broad perspective. We intend to dedicate one of the upcoming issues to this subject and are in the process of compiling and preparing relevant material. At the same time, we continue to receive manuscripts for all categories of articles published in the journal (see the call for submissions at the end of this issue) and prepare to publish them in accordance with our stringent publication standards. Articles accepted for publication will first be published online on the journal’s website (https://strategicassessment.inss.org.il/) and subsequently assigned to a particular issue. This format, comparable to the standards of leading journals around the world, prevents a delay in publishing articles that have completed the full evaluation and editing process. Kobi Michael and Carmit Valensi Editors, Strategic Assessment Tel Aviv, April 2020 Research Forum Israel Defense Emergency, Resilience, and the Big City Meir Elran, Carmit Padan, and Aya Dolev In many respects, Israel is one large city, or a diverse urban network of sorts, and will certainly remain so as it becomes even more crowded. This has far- reaching security implications, especially in expected conflict scenarios. If these scenarios materialize, the Israeli home front will have to cope with a large scale attack against population centers and critical infrastructure waged with unprecedented quantities of various weapons, particularly high-trajectory weapons of different sorts. The vast majority of weapons of this type are unguided and designed primarily to harass the civilian population, but some are precision- guided missiles with heavy payloads that can cause significant damage with much greater lethal potential. This article analyzes the connection between emergency security situations in an urban environment and urban resilience as a strategic response. It examines the capacity of the Israeli city, its inhabitants, and its leadership to manage the expected security threat, maintain functional continuity, and thereafter bounce back rapidly. The article first analyzes the generic city as a complex system and the features of urban resilience from a theoretical perspective. It then analyzes the city of Tel Aviv-Jaffa as a case study of the urban core of the home front in Israel. It attempts to assess to what extent Tel Aviv-Jaffa is prepared for an expected security disruption, to what degree urban 4 Strategic Assessment | Volume 23 | No. 2 | April 2020 resilience will enable it to maintain necessary functional continuity in a large- scale conflict, and whether it is possible to evaluate the city’s subsequent ability to recover. Finally, the article offers systemic recommendations for improving preparedness and urban resilience in Tel Aviv-Jaffa and the Israeli home front in general. This article was written before the COVID-19 outbreak, but its principal insights and recommendations are valid for responses to a pandemic and any major disruption. Keywords: resilience, urban resilience, emergency, Tel Aviv, mass disasters Theoretical Introduction the event takes place and because it is more In the contemporary urban environment, accessible to the population and the local the relationship between the environment economy than any other authority. The local and its inhabitants is mediated by socio- authority will therefore usually be involved technical networks composed of infrastructure, in the initial response to a mass disruption information, and institutions (Portugali, 2012). or to any other kind of emergency (Dodman The essential function of the urban system & Satterthwaite, 2008; Alexander, 2005; under the official responsibility of the local McLoughlin, 1985; McEntire, 2007; Eriksson, authority is defined by Da Silva, Kernaghan, and 2010). Luque (2012) as support for the wellbeing of a Even though government bodies are city’s residents. The local authority is meant to commonly involved in severe emergencies, furnish this support by providing basic services in many places around the world the local that are grounded in a sense of belonging, social authorities are also active in varying degrees. cohesion, and freedom of choice and action Responsibility is not confined to actions during (Alcamo et al., 2003). an emergency situation; it also extends to the preliminary stages of preparation for it, and to the subsequent stage of recovery (Murphy, 2007; “Resilience,” a leading term in the professional Eriksson, 2010). For this reason, broad reference literature on disaster management, refers to to the role of the municipalities can be found in the capacity of any system, such as a municipal the literature dealing with disaster management system, to face a severe disruption or disaster and in the domains of planning, risk reduction, the consequences that challenge its functional mitigation, and promotion of effectiveness of continuity, recover from it quickly, and return to the systems providing services to the city (Huq, the original level of conduct (bouncing back), or Kovats, Reid, & Satterthwaite, 2007; Da Silva to a higher level of operation (bouncing forward), following systemic processes of organization et al., 2012; Bulkeley, 2011; Jabareen, 2013). and learning. One common assertion in the literature is that the key role of the local authority in the initial response mandates ongoing preliminary Routine management of the urban systems action on its part to enhance preparedness for also dictates the role of the local authority in extreme disruptions. “Preparedness”