UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Explaining Unexpected Electoral Openings in Authoritarian Systems: A Comparative Analysis of Parliamentary Elections A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Karthik Vaidyanathan Committee in charge: Professor Philip G. Roeder, Chair Professor Hasan Kayali Professor Edmund Malesky Professor Susan L. Shirk Professor Matthew S. Shugart 2010 Copyright Karthik Vaidyanathan, 2010 All rights reserved The dissertation of Karthik Vaidyanathan is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm: _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ Chair University of California, San Diego 2010 iii Table of Contents Signature Page .............................................................................................................iii Table of Contents.........................................................................................................iv List of Figures ..............................................................................................................ix Acknowledgments......................................................................................................... x Vita................................................................................................................................xi Abstract of the Dissertation.......................................................................................xii Chapter 1: Introduction to Electoral Openings in Authoritarian Systems............. 1 I. Introduction.............................................................................................................1 II. Synopsis of Argument ...........................................................................................5 III. Elections in Authoritarian Systems ......................................................................8 A. Background on Authoritarian Elections ............................................................9 B. The Value of Elections in Authoritarian Systems ...........................................10 C. The Risk of Elections in Authoritarian Systems..............................................14 D. Manipulating the Vote.....................................................................................17 IV. Alternative Explanations....................................................................................24 A. Regime Negligence..........................................................................................24 B. People Power ...................................................................................................27 C. International Pressure ......................................................................................27 V. Methodology, Outline of Dissertation, and Case Selection.................................29 Chapter 2: A Theory of Unexpected Electoral Openings in Authoritarian Systems ......................................................................................................................................36 iv I. Introduction...........................................................................................................36 II. Constitutional Structure .......................................................................................38 III. Understanding Institutional Accountability through Principal-Agent Relationships ............................................................................................................42 IV. Theory of Electoral Openings in Authoritarian Systems ...................................44 A. State Actors and Their Preferences .................................................................45 B. Institutional Constraints: Accountability and Jurisdiction over the Electoral Process..................................................................................................................47 1. Accountability Relationships........................................................................47 a. Multiple Principals....................................................................................49 b. Attenuated Accountability........................................................................49 2. Jurisdiction over the Electoral Process.........................................................50 C. Information Asymmetries................................................................................53 D. The Actions and Internal Dynamics over Electoral Policy .............................57 V. Empirical Hypotheses..........................................................................................58 A. The 2000 Egyptian Parliamentary Elections ...................................................60 B. The 1991 Algerian Parliamentary Elections....................................................63 C. The 2000 and 2004 Iranian Parliamentary Elections.......................................64 VI. Conclusion..........................................................................................................66 Chapter 3: The Egyptian Judiciary and the 2000 Parliamentary Elections......... 68 I. Introduction...........................................................................................................68 II. Background on Egypt’s Constitutional Framework ............................................73 v III. Executive Power over the Electoral Process ......................................................77 IV. The Judiciary in Egypt .......................................................................................79 A. Political History of the Courts.........................................................................80 B. Judicial Rulings on Political Rights.................................................................83 C. Judicial Rulings on the Electoral System ........................................................84 D. An Emerging “Judicial Support Network” and Executive-Judicial Conflict ..86 V. Full Judicial Supervision of the 2000 Parliamentary Elections...........................87 VI. Executive Countermoves....................................................................................92 VII. State-perpetrated Violence in the 2000 Parliamentary Elections .....................96 VIII. Election Results and the Impact of Judicial Supervision ..............................101 IX. Post-Election Consequences ............................................................................103 X. Theoretical Summary ........................................................................................105 XI. Conclusion........................................................................................................108 Chapter 4: The Defeat of the FLN in the 1991 Algerian Parliamentary Elections ....................................................................................................................................111 I. Introduction.........................................................................................................111 II. Algeria’s Constitutional Structure .....................................................................114 III. Algeria’s Economic Boom and Bust ................................................................116 IV. Black October and the November Referendum ...............................................118 V. The 1989 Constitution .......................................................................................123 VI. The National Assembly and the Legalization of the FIS .................................125 VII. A Sinking Ship................................................................................................128 vi VIII. The National Assembly and the Electoral Law.............................................131 IX. FIS Demonstrations..........................................................................................133 X. The Government-Parties Conference ................................................................134 XI. Clash between the Executive and National Assembly .....................................137 XII. Cooperation from the Interior and Justice Ministries .....................................140 XIII. Election Results and the Military Coup.........................................................141 XIV. Theoretical Summary ....................................................................................144 XV. Alternative Explanations ................................................................................146 XVI. Conclusion.....................................................................................................148 Chapter 5: An Institutional Explanation for Candidate-Vetting in Iran............ 151 I. Introduction.........................................................................................................151 II. Background of Election Laws............................................................................155 III. Khatami and the 1997 Presidential Elections...................................................164 IV. Reforms within the Interior and Intelligence Ministries ..................................167 V. The

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