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A Wind-Wave Interaction Explanation for Jelesnianski's Open-Ocean Storm Surge Estimation Using Hurricane Georges' (1998) Measurements

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A Wind-Wave Interaction Explanation for Jelesnianski's Open-Ocean Storm Surge Estimation Using Hurricane Georges' (1998) Measurements A WIND-WAVE INTERACTION EXPLANATION FOR JELESNIANSKI'S OPEN-OCEAN STORM SURGE ESTIMATION USING HURRICANE GEORGES' (1998) MEASUREMENTS S.A. Hsu Coastal Studies Institute Louisiana State University Baton Rouge, Louisiana Abstract Hurricane Georges were measured at locations along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida (Fig. 2). A On 28 September 1998, Hurricane Georges made its NOAAlNWSlNational Data Buoy Center buoy (42040; final landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi with maximum see Fig. la) was located near Georges' track and recorded one-minute sustained surface winds of46 m S·l (90 kt) and wave characteristics necessary for the wind-wave inter­ a minimum central pressure of 960 hPa. The measured action study related to this storm. peak storm surge was approximately 3 m (10 ft) at The purpose of this investigation is to estimate the Pascagoula, Mississippi. Using Jelesnianski's nomograph peak open-ocean surge using Jelesnianski's nomograph for open-ocean surge along with adjustments for shoaling and to further substantiate this nomograph by recent factor and storm motion, the peak surge on the coast is wind-wave interaction formulations. estimated to be 10 it, in excellent agreement with the mea­ surement. It is shown that Jelesnianski's open-ocean peak­ 2. Application of Jelesnianski's Nomograph surge nomograph can be further substantiated by the recent advance in wind-wave-surge interaction studies According to Jelesnianski (1972), the corrected peak using the data from a buoy located near Hurricane surge on the coast, Sp, can be estimated by Georges' track. For rapid estimation of the surge before shoaling, an analytical formula incorporating both the wind-stress tide and the barometric tide is also provided (1) for operational use. 1. Introduction where Sr is the peak open ocean surge (i.e., before shoal­ ing), Fs is a shoaling factor, and FM is a correction factor According to Dean and Dalrymple (2002), the for storm motion. N omographs for Sr, Fs, and FM are NOAAlNational Weather Service uses the SLOSH available (e.g., USACE 1977; see Figs. Al - A4 in (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) Appendix). model (Jelesnianski et al. 1992) operationally to pre­ Around 1130 UTC 28 September 1998, Georges made dict storm surges. The numerical SLOSH model runs its final landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi, with maximum on a grid system. Convective accelerations are neglect­ sustained surface winds of 46 m S·1 (90 kt), and a mini­ ed, but some nonlinearities are included (particularly mum central pressure (Po) of960 hPa measured by an Air in shallow water). Comparisons with historical storms Force Reserve Command (AFRC) "Hurricane Hunter" show that the model is accurate to within ± 20% of reconnaissance aircraft at 0503 UTC (Pasch et al. 2001). observed values. The radius of maximum wind (R) was approximately 50 On the other hand, according to the USACE (1977), km (30 miles; Hsu et al. 2000). Since Po = 960 hPa, LlP = Jelesnianski (1972) combined empirical data with his (1010 hPa - Po) = 50 hPa. Using LlP = 50 hPa and R = 30 theoretical calculations to produce a set of nomographs miles, one finds Sr = 11.2 ft from Jelesnianski's nomo­ that permit the rapid estimation of peak surge for any graph (see Fig. AI). Furthermore, Fs is approximately 1.1 geographical location when a few storm parameters are (see Fig. A2). The speed of the storm was about 3.6 m S·1 known. (7 kt or 8 mph). If one approximates its track to be near­ In September 1998, Hurricane Georges made eight ly perpendicular to the shore, FM = 0.8 (from Fig. A4). landfalls in its 17 -day journey, from islands in the north­ Therefore, from Eq. (1) Sp = 9.9 ft. From Fig. 2, the surge eastern and northern Caribbean Sea to the Florida Keys is about 2.9 m (9.6 ft) at Pascagoula, Mississippi. Hence, and finally to Biloxi, Mississippi (Pasch et al. 2001). we can say that Eq. (1) is a useful analytical formula. Figure la shows a portion of the storm track plotted on a visible satellite image from the NOAA-14 polar-orbiting 3. Application of Wind-Wave Interaction Formulas environmental satellite. A low-level wind circulation analysis of Hurricane Georges near the satellite overpass In order to further substantiate Eq. (1) physically, for­ time is provided in Fig. lb. Storm Surges related to mulas related to wind-wave interaction are employed. 25 26 National Weather Digest Fig. 1a. Visible image from NOM-14 satellite and the storm track of Hurricane Georges in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Because of its prox­ imity to the track, data sets from NOBe buoy 42040 are employed in this study. Eye center on satellite image is estimated since cloud filled. Image courtesy of A. Babin, Earth Scan Lab, Louisiana State University. According to the Shore Protection Manual (USACE Sy = 0.6 m (2 ft), or 8% of Sr; 1977), the total water level rise at the coast during a hur­ SLlP = 0.3 m (1 ft), or 4% of Sr; ricane is Se = 0.4 m (1.2 ft), or 4.8% of Sr; and SA = 0.2 m (0.8 ft), or 3.2% of ST. It is clear that 80% of the total surge was contributed by the x-component setup during this hurricane. where Sr = total setup, The x-component setup along the hurricane track Sx = x-component setup (i.e., the direct transport by before shoaling has been parameterized by Hsu (1999): the wind stress) or the wind stress tide; Sy = y-component setup (i.e., the Ekman transport P u 2( D )-1 by the wind stress) or the Coriolis tide; S = -_Q- --* --.!. H (3) SLlP = atmospheric pressure setup or the barometric x ( PwK2 )( UIO ) HI 8 tide; Se = initial water level; where pa and pw are the air and water densities, respec­ SA = astronomical tide; tively. K (= 0.0016) is the wind-wave interaction coeffi­ Sw = wave setup; and cient, u" is the friction velocity, UlO is the wind speed at a SL = local conditions, such as freshwater runoff from height of 10 m, Hs is the significant wave height, and Ds land into bays or rivers. is the shoaling depth. Note that the parameters (u*llho) An example ofthe relative magnitude for the above terms and (DJHs) are normalized friction velocity and shoaling is provided for Hurricane Camille of 1969 as follows: depth, respectively. It follows from Eq. (3) that from the ST = 7.6 m (25 ft); viewpoint of dimensional analysis, Sx has the same units Sx = 6.1 m (20 ft), or 80% of ST; as Hs (meters or feet). Volume 28 December 2004 27 In order to estimate Sx from Hs, we must further para­ meterize (UJUlO) and (DsfHs). This parameterization is Hurricane Georges 2230 UTe 27 September 1998 Max. 1-min sustained surface winds (kt) for marine exposure accomplished as follows. In the atmospheric surface Anal ysis base d on 860 mb AF C-IJO Reeon mln obs adj. to sre . from 1753 - 21 58 z; Three GPS Oropwlndsonde s; C-MAN. buo ys, and ships from 1B OO - 2100 Z; boundary layer under hurricane conditions, the stability is CIMSS GOES Low.Lsvel cloud drift winds adj. to sfe from 1900 z near neutral (see Simpson and Riehl 1981, p. 201) so that 2230' poslUon m rap olaled (rom 21", nx us ing 32 0 d' g @ lid u. Z Uz = -In- (4) K Zo 32 where Uz is the wind speed at height Z, K (0.4) is the von Karman constant, and Zo is the roughness length. According to Taylor and Yelland (2001), 30 Zo = 1200 L; (5) H3 (Hr 28 2 gTp (6) L =- p 21t 26 where Lp is the deepwater dominant wave length, g is the gravitational acceleration, and T p is the dominant wave peri­ Experimental research product of : od at the spectral peak. From Eq. (4) and setting Z = 10 m, NOAA I AOMll Hurricane Research Division Fig. 1 b. The wind circulation of Hurricane Georges at 2230 UTe (7) 27 September 1998, based on the composite datasets provided by the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division. 90' Pascagoula ----------------- ,- - - - ---Bayou La Batre 87' BlloJd -------­ : ,------ DIH4JIin Island M I SS. GuKport ---- -, , ' - - - Mollie , -- Fort Morgan - GLM Gulfport Harbor - --- -II : : --Mollie Bay /_/::_--FortMorgan-Bay A L A_ Pass Chrtstlan --__ I : /_<_---:_---- Weeks Bay 31' Pass Cluistian Harbor - -, 1 ':::_---_---- _---- GuKshoIes 31' ._ .. _ .. _ .. _ .. _ .. _ .. _ .. _ .. _. ~ySt.l..ouis-: : ,-::_:=::::::_---- Ono Island : r~'- " -"-"-"- " - " -"- " - " -"- " -"-"-"-"- " - " - " RigoIets -"\ i : Bayou Bienvenu - '\ \ : : :-' Bayou Dupre -," \ J I \\ \ • I :I '~""'", , r - Pensacola Bead! FLA. , IndusIriaI CanaJ - - - -1 \ " \ ( : : ", ", , NoIIh End~---,: " " \\ I I I : , West End Marila --" ,,\ . : I I I , : I . : : Pontchartrain -, : " " \\ / I I I • F~ "'I: ~ ~ / I I I I , I ' :', 1 : : I : 'I I: I lJ..-: I , : " .......1 r--~ c:r:-. I I 1.---- :t :: : " I I I 2.1m--': :: I 16m ' I " !.. - 1.6m 1------2.7m 2.6m.-----. --- :'I ',I" 1 2.5m·------ ! :~-=:--=--=--=--=-~ ~ : : "--------· 2.6m LA. GULF OF M EXICO 29' Storm Su rges Related to o 100 Ian Hurricane Georges. 1998 ~~--------~----~TI-m-~~I 90' 87' Data Source: Pasch et aI., 2001 Fig. 2. Measured storm surges at locations along the northeast Gulf coast induced by Hurricane Georges. The hurricane made land­ fall near Biloxi, Mississippi on 28 September 1998. For clarity, the storm track is omitted. 28 National Weather Digest Table 1. Measured wave parameters from NDBC buoy 42040 gT2 in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Georges, D = 0.2L = 0.2-P (9) 27-28 September 1998. (Data source: s p 21t http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov) ~ u.
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