GLOBEFORM PREVIEWS
TOTE EBOR MEETING - YORK
Previews, selections and betting plans to two selected races on each day of the big August meeting at York racecourse in England. By GEIR STABELL, editor and chief handicapper www.globeform.com
TUESDAY
Race 3 – Great Voltigeur Stakes (G2) 3yo – 1 ½ miles
This traditional prep for the last classic of the season, the St. Leger Stakes (G1) at Doncaster next month, has drawn a field of ten. With some fairly accomplished names, plus lightly raced improver, in the mix this will be a good renewal. It is often a good pointer to the 'Leger' but one word of warning before we try to solve this puzzle; it is not always the winner at York that comes out on tp at Doncaster. Quite a few Leger winner has been beaten in the Great Voltigeur over the years.
MIDAS TOUCH, trained by Aidan O'Brien, and REWILDING, representing Saeed bin Suroor's bang in form team, are the two favorites. It is difficult to split the two and anybody's guess which one will be shortest in the betting when the stalls open. Rewilding has not been seen in action since the Derby at Epsom in June, when he was a game (albeit well beaten) third behind Workforce. Midas Touch finished fifth that day, 4 lengths behind Rewilding, but the Irish colt moved markedly forward on his next start; when taking second in the Irish Derby at The Curragh. Looking very much like a Leger candidate, Midas Touch checked in just half a length behind stable companion Cape Blanco (who ran second to Harbinger in the 'King George' at Ascot next time out). Because he is a G2 winner, Midas Toch has to give 3lb to Rewilding this time. That factor sways things in Godolphin's favor, but other factors make it sensible to go for Midas Touch. Whereas he is being pointed seriously for the Leger (and has been selected from a number of Ballydoyle trainees), Rewilding is a colt cionnections feel will come into his won next year. Coming off a long break he is unlikely to be at the top of his game this week. That may slso be the case with Midas Touch but he is more likely to be sharp. Both are potential improvers. I am going for Midas Touch. He made Cape Blanco work hard for his Derby win in Ireland, and if he continues the progress we have seen step by step since his seasonal debut, well, then this son of Galileo will prove hard to beat.
TOTAL COMMAND, trained by Sir Michael Stoute for Khalid Abdullah, looks the best longshot. This is a big, strapping colt who has needed time, and he will improve – that's for sure. He is another who may develop into G1 calibre next season but the Leger is very much on the agenda for this son of Sadler's Wells and 1,000 Guineas herione Wince. He made what looked a winning move a furlong out in the 2-mile Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot in June, but failed to stay the distance and faded into third place. This distance will suit Total Command better and, at around 10-1, he is well worth a small wager. At Ascot, he had a horse called Corsica almost two lengths behind, and that colt went on to win a Listed race at Newmarket; beating HARRIS TWEED by ¾ length. This formline indicates that Harris Tweed, trained by Lester Piggott's son-in-law William Haggas, is up against it here. On pure form he is, though I am not so sure we should write this fast improving runner off – even in this company. He was entered for the valuable Swedish Derby (where he would have been 1/5) and also for the Ebor Handicap (where he did not get in) and that connections take this rout really is interesting. The plan is to give him one more run after this, then wrap him up for 2011. He's a very classy looking individual, and a bit of give underfoot will suit him.
GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS
A: 1 MIDAS TOUCH
B: 7 REWILDING
C: 4 HARRIS TWEED, 10 TOTAL COMMAND
RECOMMENDED BETS
WIN: 1 Midas Touch
6 EXACTAS
A: 1 and 7 boxed
B: 1 and 4 boxed
B: 1 and 10 boxed
5 DOUBLES
R3: 1 Midas Touch, 7 Rewilding
R4: 2 Byword, 6 Rip Van Winkle
Plus one extra line: 1 Midas Touch & 2 Byword
Race 4 – Juddmonte International Stakes (G1) 3yo+ / 10.2 furlongs
BYWORD and TWICE OVER, the pair who filled first and second in the prestigious Prince Of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot, are set to meet again – both carrying the silks of the race sponsors. Byword, a progressive colt trained in France by Andre Fabre, got first run on Twice Over at Ascot, where the latter was short of room at a crucial stage. Twice Over has since franked the form by himself winning the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown Park, but only just and after having a hard race. To assume that Twice Over can turn the tables on Byword may me a mistake, not least since the French runner has so much more scope for improvement. After ascot, his trainer said that he would drop him back to a mile, and not map out a plan leading to the 'Arc' over 1 ½ miles. A few weeks ago, Fabre – arguably one of the best trainers in the world – had a change of heart, and here we are; with Byword running in the International, as a prep for the Arc. I went for him in the Prince Of Wales, where UK bookmakers offered a crazy 4-1 about Byword, and I see no reason to desert him now. He goes on any ground, his form is rock solid and he can improve again. US racing fans should note his name whatever happens over the next six weeks, as Byword is just the sort to be sent across the pond later on. He's an ideal horse for the Breeders' Cup Turf.
RIP VAN WINKLE, one of the best three-year-olds of last year and one of the few who could give the mighty champion Sea The Stars a fight, may be a bigger danger than Twice Over. Steadily regaining his form, Aidan O'Brien's star was last seen in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, where he was runner-up to Canford Cliffs. That was marked improvement on Rip Van Winkle's form at Royal Ascot, where he made his seasonal debut (!) in the Queen Anne Stakes and finished sixth behind Goldikova (tired late after early speed). Rip Van Winkle is much better than that showing. He simply outclassed Paco Boy in the Sussex last summer and was also quite close up behind Sea The Stars both in the Derby and the Eclipse Stakes. Although 'Rip' has been brilliant over a mile, there is reason to believe that he is just as effective over a mile and a quarter, and he must have top chance at York.
DICK TURPIN, a three-year-old trained by Richard Hannon, has been supplemented at the cost of £50,000, and he is an interesting contender – as he has shown himself to be one of the best milers in his age group. Stamina will have to be taken on trust, however, and any rain would not be in his favor. Dick Turpin is a son of Arakan, and his pedigree does not augur well for this step up in distance. That said, he cerianly wasn't stopping at the end of the one-mile Prix Jean Prat (G1) at Chantilly in July, when he powered hom by 4 easy lengths from Siyouni (a G1 winner last year but not quite as good this season).
GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS
A: 2 BYWORD
B: 6 RIP VAN WINKLE
C: 8 TWICE OVER, 9 DICK TURPIN
RECOMMENDED BETS
WIN: 2 Byword
EXACTAS
A: 2 and 6 boxed
B: 2 with 8, 9
C: 6 with 8, 9
GEIR STABELL www.globeform.com