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Transcript Produced from a Tape Recording] 1 BROOKINGS INSTITUTION UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Conference THE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF REGIONAL COOPERATION AND INTEGRATION IN CENTRAL ASIA Tuesday, March 27, 2006 9:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. The Brookings Institution Falk Auditorium 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. [TRANSCRIPT PRODUCED FROM A TAPE RECORDING] MILLER REPORTING CO., INC. 735 8th STREET, S.E. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20003-2802 (202) 546-6666 2 Panel One: The Future of Central Asia Moderator: STROBE TALBOTT Presenters: KALMAN MIZSEI JOHANNES LINN Panelists: JOHN FOX KEMAL DERVIS LIQUN JIN SHIGEO KATSU Panel Two: Opportunities for Regional Cooperation & Integration in Central Asia Moderator: FIONA HILL Panelists: ADRIAN RUTHENBERG DENNIS de TRAY ANARA TABYSHALIEVA CASSANDRA CAVANAUGH DREW W. LUTEN III Panel Three: Prospects of Regional Cooperation as Seen from the Governments in Central Asia Moderator: KALMAN MIZSEI Panelists: KANAT SAUDABAYEV AMBASSADOR NURBEK JEENBAEV AMBASSADOR ASLOV SIRODJIDIN ALISHER VOHIDOV Panel Four: Political and Institutional Obstacles for Regional Cooperation and Integration in Central Asia Moderator: S. FREDERICK STARR MILLER REPORTING CO., INC. 735 8th STREET, S.E. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20003-2802 (202) 546-6666 3 Panelists: KATHLEEN COLLINS MARTHA BRILL OLCOTT ERIC McGLINCHEY TALAIBEK KOICHUMANOV Panel Five: Broader Regional Context for Central Asia: Afghanistan, China, Russia, and South Asia Moderator: CARLOS PASCUAL Panelists: ASHRAF GHANI BEN SLAY MARTHA BLAXALL FIONA HILL FRED STARR MILLER REPORTING CO., INC. 735 8th STREET, S.E. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20003-2802 (202) 546-6666 4 P R O C E E D I N G S MR. TALBOTT: I'm Strobe Talbott of the Brookings Institution and I want to welcome all of you here today. As you all know, we're here to talk about a topic that is every bit as timely as it is important. We're here to discuss an immensely complex and highly dynamic region of the world. When I think about Central Asia, I sometimes recall something that Winston Churchill famously said about the Balkans, which is he said of that region that it had--and still has--too much history for local consumption. And I think the same could be said of Central Asia. Fortunately, it also has too much oil and gas for local consumption, although that fact is not without its problematic aspects that we will be getting into. Central Asia, of course, is not just an issue of immense importance to its immediate neighborhood. It represents a genuinely global challenge. China, Russia, India, Japan, the European Union, the United States--and that's not an exhaustive list--all have huge stakes in the stability and, I might add, the prosperity and the political development of that region, which of course are intimately related to its stability. Now, the importance of our topic is fully matched, I think, by the distinction and the expertise of the people who will be addressing the issue in this first panel, that I will be moderating, as well as during the course of the day. MILLER REPORTING CO., INC. 735 8th STREET, S.E. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20003-2802 (202) 546-6666 5 We are very honored to have with us today five ambassadors from Central Asian countries. I think that the prize for the person who came the greatest distance to be part of this program today goes to Ashraf Ghani, the rector of Kabul University, who has come here from Kabul to be part of this conference. I want to say just a few words about my co-panelists. They're well- known to all of you, I think, and you have their biographies, of course, and I won't summarize their CVs. I'm particularly glad that Kemal Dervis could be here. Kemal is an extraordinarily busy guy. He is also a very, very dear friend and mentor to me personally. And he is, of course, the administrator of the UNDP. Having him with us is an honor and, I think, indispensable to the quality of the proceedings that we're going to have. We're also very glad to have with us his colleague who is responsible for the region, Kalman Mizsei, who is assistant administrator of the UNDP. Another former colleague of mine, John Fox, who has stayed on at the Department of State to be the director of the Office of Caucasus and Central Asian Affairs. Very glad that John could be with us. Liqun Jin, vice president of the Asian Development Bank responsible for Central Asia, is with us as well. MILLER REPORTING CO., INC. 735 8th STREET, S.E. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20003-2802 (202) 546-6666 6 Shigeo Katsu, vice president of the World Bank and also responsible for Central Asia, is part of our panel. And last but by no means least, I want to say a word about Johannes Linn, who is my colleague here at Brookings and the executive director of the Wolfensohn Initiative on Development. Johannes's title gives me a chance to express my admiration and gratitude to Jim Wolfensohn. Jim is, in the Socratic sense, a citizen of the world. He is also truly a world leader in his own right. And we are very fortunate to have him as a trustee and a benefactor of the Brookings Institution, and he will soon be the chairman of the new Wolfensohn Center on Development here at Brookings. Jim had very much hoped to be with us today. He does, however, have a day job, and that is serving as the special envoy for the quartet. He sends us his greetings, and I assure you we will be sending him a full report on the proceedings. Let me now review the order of the day. Johannes and Kalman are going to open the discussion with a summary of the UNDP Central Asia Human Development Report. The other panelists are then going to comment briefly, in no more than about 5 minutes, in order to leave us plenty of time to pursue as a group discussion on various dimensions of the topic before us, and particularly the importance of natural resources to a world where energy security is integral to other forms of security, including, I might add, human security. And we also MILLER REPORTING CO., INC. 735 8th STREET, S.E. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20003-2802 (202) 546-6666 7 want to have time to talk a bit about the risk of internal or cross-border conflict and the emergence of failed states as a danger that we face in the region. At about 10:30 we will have a coffee break and then reconvene at 11 for a second session, which will give us a chance to explore some specific sectoral issues--trade and transport, water and energy, social development, disaster prevention, migration, private-sector development. After lunch, we will hear from the ambassadors from the Central Asian region. Then we'll have a discussion of political and institutional constraints on cooperation. And then will come the last session of the day and of the conference, which is to put all the issues that we've talked about in a broader regional context. That session will be moderated by my old friend, my former colleague in government, my new colleague at Brookings, Carlos Pascual, who is director and vice president in charge of our Foreign Policy Studies Program. He has devoted a great deal of his career as a Foreign Service officer to the issues that we're going to be focusing on today. Many of you in the room know him. Those of you who don't know him, after you've had a chance to get to know him a little bit during the last part of the program today, will understand why all of us at Brookings are so very grateful that he would agree to join us here. So Kalman, if you would be good enough to get us started. MR. MIZSEI: Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, dear friends. As Strobe Talbott mentioned, Central Asia is posing us with one of the most intricate, complex developmental challenges of the world. Strobe also quoted MILLER REPORTING CO., INC. 735 8th STREET, S.E. WASHINGTON, D.C. 20003-2802 (202) 546-6666 8 Churchill about the Balkans. I will not quote, because it is long, but you can look up in Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations, where he spends a considerable amount of time describing the geographical determinants of a very, very difficult what we call today developmental situation of both Africa and Central Asia. At that time, the geographical name of Central Asia was slightly different. It was called the Parion [ph]. And yet, if we look at the way the international developmental community is handling the issue of Central Asia--and where is a better place, really, to discuss this than Brookings?--one has the impression that Central Asia is an orphan of the developmental community. It is an orphan because I think both Johannes and Kemal, who has also spent a great deal of time in the post- communist region in his professional life, will testify somehow the developmental community assumes that our region is sort of a developed region where some perhaps historical mistakes or accidents happened sometime around the end of the 1980s. But basically, we are in the post-communist countries and the former Soviet Union a fundamentally developed region, and it only takes time to recover this status. September 11th has given us a perhaps slightly perverse hope that this situation is going to change because the Central Asian countries, neighbors to Afghanistan, became important geopolitically. But five years after, we can say this enthusiasm for Central Asia hasn't really resulted in as much concrete action, both by the international community as well as in terms of response from MILLER REPORTING CO., INC.
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