MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND PHYSICAL PLANNING

REPORT ON SECOND COMMUNICATION ON CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGES AND ADAPTATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA SECTION: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation for Water Resources Sector

Prepared by Katerina Donevska Ph.D.

December 2006, Skopje

CONTENTS

1. Purpose and Objectives of the Assessment 1 2. Organization of the Assessment Work 2 3. Participation of Stakeholders (workshops) 2 4. Methodology and Approaches Used 2 5. Spatial/Geographical Boundaries and Time Horizons 2 6. Description of Exposure Units and Sub-Sectors Studied 5 7. Vulnerability Assessment 7.1. Findings from the Existing and Past Climate Change Related Projects 17 7.2. Analysis of Meteorological Parameters 19 7.3. Analysis of the Climate Change Impact on the Available Water Resources 24 7.4. Climate Change Impact on Social, Economic and Health Conditions 74 7.5. Climate Change Impact on Surface Water Quality 81 8. Main Findings 97 9. Recommendations 9.1 Adaptation Measures 105 9.2 Adaptation Related Projects 112 9.3 National Action Plan 117

References 124

Annex: ToR

1. Purpose and Objectives of the Vulnerability Assessment

1.1. General background information Acknowledging the significance of the climate change problem and the necessity to take effective actions for its mitigation, the Republic of Macedonia ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on December 4, 1997 (Official Gazette of RM – International agreements 61/97), and became party to the Convention on April 28, 1998. As a non-Annex I Party to the Convention, the country has committed to produce the Initial National Communication to the Conference of the Parties (CoP). The leading role in the implementation of the Convention on climate change falls within the competence of the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, in cooperation with other ministries. Preparation of the Initial National Communication (INC) was conducted thanks to the GEF’s grant, through UNDP as an implementing agency. To address the problem of climate change more effectively, a Climate Change Project Unit within the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning was established. The Macedonian Government has also appointed the National Climate Change Committee entitled to supervise and co-ordinate the implementation of the projects and climate change related issues. The Initial National Communication on Climate Change was submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat in March 2003, and presented at the side event at COP9. In continuation, the Top-Ups activities were implemented in duration of one year, financed by UNDP/GEF, which contributed to extending existing analyses and enhancing national capacities in the most priority areas. The project for preparation of the Second National Communication on climate change is a logical continual step towards further implementation of the UNFCCC at national level. Its main objective is preparing a comprehensive report on the climate change following the UNFCCC guidelines. The analysis conducted within the INC will be upgraded and extended, which will result in preparation of an advanced national report. Furthermore, it will work towards ensuring that climate change issues are not considered as separate to national and local environmental concerns by integrating climate change concerns and objectives into national and local strategic planning processes.

1.2. Purpose and Objectives One of the sectors analyzed in the framework of the Second National Communication are the water resources, which are subject to this Assessment. The main objective of the Vulnerability Assessment is to assess the vulnerability of the water resources under conditions of climate change and to propose adaptation measures for the water resources sector. The scope of work is defined in the Terms of References (Annex), as well as the expected output and contents of the Assessment. Other Assessment objectives are related to the different analyses which should be performed. Shortly they can be listed as follows: • To analyze the concerned sectors such as irrigation, water supply, hydropower for their current status and to present the future demands according to the existing planning national documents; • To assess the vulnerability of the water resources upon different river basins using the all existing data presented in the INC and including extended data on additional meteorological and hydrological stations; • To analyze the status of the three natural lakes: Ohrid, Prespa and Dojran; • To analyze the water quality deterioration due to climate change impact; • To analyze the climate change impact on the economic, social and health aspects in the country; • To propose recommendations for adaptation measures; • To prepare Draft National Action Plan.

1 2. Organization of the Assessment Work The Assessment work is organized according to the defined output and contents in the Terms of References. The Assessment is consisted of 9 Chapters: 1. Purpose and objectives of the assessment; 2. Organization of the assessment work.; 3. Participation of stakeholders (workshops); 4. Methodology or approaches used; 5. Spatial/geographical boundaries and time horizons; 6. Description of exposure units and sub-sectors studied; 7. Vulnerability Assessment; 8. Main findings and 9. Recommendations (Propose adaptation related projects and National Action Plan).

3. Participation of Stakeholders (workshops) The Final report is elaborated after discussing the main findings, adaptation measures and National Action Plan with the national stakeholders at a workshop held on November 24th in Skopje. The stakeholders recommendations are included in the Final Report.

4. Methodology and Approaches Used In order to estimate the impacts of climate change on hydrological resources in terms of water quantity and quality and estimate the socio-economic impact of climate change on both water demand and water resources management parameters, the following guidelines, handbooks and approaches have been used: • UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies; • UNFCC Handbook on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments; • IPCC technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations; • National/regional methodologies and guidelines; • Top-down approach in incorporation of climate information in water resource studies. (begins by establishing the scientific credibility of human-caused climate warming, then developing future regional climate scenarios and assessing the impacts of those potential changes on water resource systems) • Mathematical statistical methods and theory of probability. Assessment of climate change impact on meteorological parameters and hydrologic resources has been performed using empirical relationships, mathematical statistical methods and theory of probability. A predictive model based on empirical and statistical relationships is used for effective runoff assessment. An annual model developed by Turc relates precipitation and temperature to effective runoff. The analyses of the time series (hydrological, for exp. discharge) are based on mathematical statistics and theory of probability. Applied methodology is consisted of several steps explained in Chapter 7.3. in detail. Modern practice requires homogenized hydrological (and meteorological) data for any analysis and especially for solid hydrological forecasting. First phase of the hydrologic analysis of the water resources includes analysis of homogeneity and autocorrelation of the hydrological series. Then standard statistic procedure for determining the statistical parameters and trends of the series is performed. Conclusion about climate change impact on water resources has been presented too. Climate change impact on water quality has been assessed using statistical relationships (method of least squares). The same method has been applied in Assessment of climate change Impact on Social, Economic and Health Conditions. The main findings and recommendations of the Assessment are discussed with the main stakeholders on workshop. The results of these findings are presented in the Final Report.

5. Spatial/Geographical Boundaries and Time Horizons Although Macedonia is a relatively small country, different climate types are characterized over its territory. In general in one part it has continental climate, and in the other part Mediterranean, with

2 varieties between these two types. As a country made up of two distinct hydroclimatic zones it has been concluded that each hydroclimatic zone should be represented by a river basin. The Vulnerability assessment and adaptation for water resources sector has been done on a country level. The river basin is selected to be the most appropriate primary exposure unit for assessing impacts on hydrologic resources. The study area has been selected according to the hydrology, climate zones and the specific goals of the assessment defined in the ToRs. The study area is the whole territory of the Republic of Macedonia, represented by the three major river basins: river Vardar, river Crn Drim and river Strumica basin. River Vardar basin is the major one covering 80,4 % of the total territory of the country and runs in different hydroclimatic zones. River Vardar’s most important tributaries: Treska, Pcinja, Bregalnica, and Crna Reka and their river basins are also considered. This has been required in ToRs in order to analyze the climate changes impact on the available water resources in different regions of the country and to identify the level of vulnerability in each region. The time scale of the Vulnerability Assessment is linked with the methodology used and the types of impacts that are assessed. The hydrologic assessment mainly is based on an annual time step data. Data for maximal, average and minimal discharge and also monthly data have been used in hydrologic assessment. The same time scale has been used for temperature and precipitation data. Sufficiently long historical data series for hydrometeorological parameters and river discharge have been used. For the socio-economic analysis, existing national planning documents were used with time horizon 2020. All predictions of development of demands and sectorial development were done for the same time horizon.

3 4 6. Description of Sectors 6.1 Irrigation 6.1.1 General The favourable climate and pedological conditions in the Republic of Macedonia create the basis for intensive agricultural production of specific highly cost effective crops. Due to uneven distribution of precipitation in time and space, irrigation in our country is necessary condition for successful agricultural production. The arable agricultural area in the Republic of Macedonia accounts for approximately 667.000 ha. If fully constructed, irrigation schemes could irrigate around 400.000 ha, or 60% of the total arable land. So far, 106 smaller and larger irrigation schemes have been built covering an area of 163.693 ha of fertile arable land, i.e. 49,9% of the area that may be irrigated. Actual possible area for irrigation is about 126.600 ha. The irrigation schemes are mainly constructed in the period between 1958 and 1980, which means that some of them are under operation for more then 40 years. Out of the total area under irrigation, 61% are irrigated by sprinkling, while 39% by other type of surface irrigation.

6.1.2 Current Condition - Irrigated Areas Due to the long operation period, not regular and on time maintenance, poor condition of some part of the irrigations schemes (canals, network, lift gates etc), small size of the farmer plots, change of the cropping pattern, irrigation schemes have low efficiency coefficient of 49% up to 78%. Data on irrigated areas, type of irrigated crop and consumed water are obtained from the Administration on Water Management at the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management, and presented in the following table: Table No.6.1. Irrigated areas from 1987 to 2003 Possible for irrigation Planned for irrigation Irrigated Possible/irrigated Year (ha) (ha) (ha) (%) 1987 122.259 110.109 82.582 67,5 1988 122.259 99.807 76.937 62,9 1989 123.159 96.605 66.860 54,3 1990 123.159 93.320 77.790 63,2 1991 123.159 85.599 63.716 51,7 1992 124.310 81.275 70.050 56,3 1993 124.310 69.088 45.231 36,4 1994 125.980 73.610 54.620 43,4 1995 126.617 70.406 40.068 31,6 1996 126.025 73.069 46.351 36,8 1997 124.184 69.946 51.665 41,6 1998 122.964 57.812 51.441 41,8 1999 123.126 56.674 36.146 29,4 2000 122.877 57.823 42.572 34,7 2001 122.494 42.428 23.930* 2002 122.500 15.203* 2003 122.500 27.498* Source: Administration of Water Management at the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management *data from5 large WMO's are not included, they didn't deliver the information It is very obvious that there is a tendency of decreasing of irrigated area. In 1987 total irrigated area was 82.582 ha or 67,5% of the possible area for irrigation. After that year the irrigated area continually decreases reaching the minimum of 36.146 ha in 1999. Also in 1995 percentage of the irrigated area 5 was very low, 31,6%. The explanation for that year is the rather high precipitation during the vegetation period, as well as the spring storms, which destroyed the crops before yield. Beside the weather conditions, there are many other reasons for decreased irrigated areas, which can be grouped as technical, financial and organizational. The poor technical condition of the major part of the irrigation systems due to the age of the system, poor quality of the original inbuilt materials, old design, uncompleted parts of the system, led to very low efficiency coefficient of the systems. Additionally, the Water Management Organizations are not operating and maintain the irrigation system on a proper manner and on time, mainly due to the poor financial situation. As a result of poor maintenance, the condition of the irrigation systems continually deteriorates. The collection rate of the water fees is very low, because the farmers are either not satisfied with the provided services or they are not in a position to pay. The generally poor economic situation reflects very negatively on the situation of the farmers. They can not find easily new markets and their production is difficult to sell and to gain income from the agriculture production. This is very low use efficiency of the irrigation schemes and the fact that most of the time not more then 50% of the possible areas are irrigated, it is very concerning, because without irrigation there is no agricultural production and no food production. The importance of irrigation can be presented with the following table No.6.2. where average crop yield (t/ha) with and without irrigation for two irrigation schemes are given: Table No.6.2. Average yield (t/ha) Irrigation Scheme "Bregalnica" Irrigation Scheme "Tikves" Crop Without irrigation With irrigation Without irrigation With irrigation Wheat 2,0 4,2 2,5 4,8 Maize 2,0 6,7 2,5 8,5 Sunflower 0,8 3,0 1,1 3,1 Alfalfa 3,0 10,0 3,6 12,0 Tomato 8,0 42,0 10,0 40,0 Pepper 0,0 35,0 0,0 32,0 Peaches 6,9 16,0 10,2 25,0 Wine grape 4,0 23,0 Table grape 14,0 40,0 Source: Capacity Self Assessment within the Thematic Area of Land Degradation and Desertification Report There is no reliable data on consumed irrigation water. It is important to explain that most of the irrigation schemes have no measuring devices on irrigation intakes, such as river diversions or canal outlet. The exception is Hydro System Strezevo where irrigation water consumption is measured on the main pipelines.

6.1.3 Irrigation Water Requirements Irrigation water requirements are defined in the Expert Report on Water Resources Management (ERWRM) prepared as part of the National Spatial Plan (1998). In this document, the irrigation water requirements are assessed for assumed irrigation area of 126.617 ha and average irrigation norm for certain areas (depending of type of crop irrigated, climate and soil conditions). Total irrigation water requirements and divided demands by river basin base are presented in the following Table No.6.3. Table No.6.3. Irrigation water requirements (current condition) Area Irrigation water requirements No. River basin (ha) (m3/year) 1. Vardar 99.918 731.732.000 2. Strumica 18.432 117.941.000 3. Crn Drim 8.267 49.662.000 TOTAL 126.617 899.335.000 Source: ERWRM 6 6.1.4 Irrigation Water Quality Generally, irrigation water quality is good. For all larger irrigation schemes, main water resources are the reservoirs, usually located on upstream section of the rivers. In these areas there is no significant population or industry, so the water in the reservoirs is not polluted. Even if polluted water inflows in the reservoirs (exp. Tikves), large reservoirs have high capability for self-purification of the water. There are monitoring data on water quality in the reservoirs, which are used for irrigation. The defined class is I or II, which according to the act on classification of water, is suitable for irrigation. From 126.617 ha, about 15.000 ha are irrigated with water from rivers. Main resource is the river Vardar. In this case, defined class of the water can be II, III or IV. If the water is III or IV class, then is not suitable for irrigation, but there is no control of the used water. There is no regular monitoring of the irrigation water in canals or in the pipelines. There were some measurements in the framework of the Irrigation Rehabilitation and Restructuring Project for irrigation schemes covered by the project: Bregalnica, Tikves and Polog. The results showed good quality of the irrigation water in the canals. Pollution of the soil and groundwater in the regions of intensive use of fertilizers and plant protection chemicals is noticed, but there is no systematic monitoring and analyses performed. That is very important for areas where ground water is used for drinking or irrigation.

6.1.5 Irrigation Schemes Condition Operation period of the irrigation schemes is rather different and it goes from 10 to more then 40 years. The largest irrigation schemes like: Bregalnica (28.000 ha), Tikves (15.000 ha), Polog (13.900 ha), Strumica (15.000 ha), Prespansko pole (3.600 ha), Lipkovo (8.150 ha), are more then 30 years old. Irrigation scheme Strezevo (20.200 ha), which is the most modern system in the country is built in 1983. This irrigation system has computer center which command the flow (dynamic flow regulation) in the canal and network. Current condition of the schemes (except Strezevo) is characterized with poor technical condition of the structures, facilities and equipment, high water losses, low use efficiency, not enough capacity for the changed cropping pattern, no flow regulation in the convey structures (canals and pipelines) etc. Very often, the system is not completely built in accordance to the design, so some parts of the systems can not be used. Reasons for such poor condition of the schemes are numerous: bad quality of the original construction, poor and not on time maintenance of the schemes, not fully built according to the design, inadequate design solutions, insufficient and poor quality of the hydro mechanical equipment, large number of water users, small size of the plots, bad financial situation of the water management organizations, not implemented Water law, rural emigration etc. In order to improve the condition of the irrigation schemes, the Republic of Macedonia provided financial assistance (credits, loans and donations) from several international donors and financial institutions, As a result, there are two ongoing projects: Rehabilitation of the irrigation schemes Tikves, Bregalnica and Polog, financed by the World Bank, The Netherlands and the Government of the Republic of Macedonia (in final phase of implementation) and Rehabilitation and extension of irrigation in the Southern Valley of River Vardar (region of Gevgelija and Bogdanci), financed by KfW .

6.1.6 Management of Irrigation Schemes Irrigation schemes are managed by Water Management Organization (WMO), which are now in the process of complete restructuring. According to the Water law, Public Water Management Enterprise (PWME) should be founded comprising all WMO into one centralized organization. But, due to many reasons (financial, political, social, economic) only the headquarter of the PWME was founded, while the WMO kept their undefined legal status until December 2003, when Law on Water Economies was adopted (Off. Gazette of RM, No.85/03). The reason for this restructuring was extremely bad economic situation of the WMO, rapid deterioration of the schemes, not satisfying performance, very 7 high debts. Now, these WMO's are in a process of dismissing and new water economies should be founded. These new water economies are companies (legal entity) found on the basis of public law as sui generis and they would be managed by Water Users Board. In management of the irrigation schemes or part of the irrigation schemes, there are another legal entity for management, operation and maintenance of the schemes: Water communities. Law on water communities was adopted in July 2003 (Off. Gazette of RM, No.51/03), and allows water users to join in community and to get the right to operate, maintein and manage the scheme within the community area.

6.1.7 Problems Irrigation sector is facing many problems of technical, institutional and financial aspects. Some of the problems can be addressed as: • poor technical conditions of the irrigation schemes including canals, network, structures, other facilities, equipment etc; • insufficient capacity of the convey structures and distribution network; • high water losses and degradation of the soil due to surplus of water; • small farmer's plots and large number of individual water users; • low water use efficiency; • low cost revenues collection; • bad financial situation. Part of these problems should be solved with the new organizational set up: forming of the new Water Economies and Water Communities. Referring to the technical problems there are several projects, which rehabilitate and reconstruct large part of the irrigation areas. Regarding the financial problems, state budget would cover some of the cost, but new Water Economies should be self-financing and self-sustainable legal entities.

6.1.8 Future Irrigation Water Requirements Construction of irrigation schemes is very expensive and long-term activity. It is not likely that in near future (5-6 years) there will be large new irrigation schemes, which will require new water quantities. Priority in irrigation sector has the rehabilitation of the existing schemes, their modernization and installation of new equipment, application of water saving techniques and flow control in the main canals. In the ERWRM document, future irrigation requirements are estimated for the horizon 2020. New planned areas are 139.710 ha and all together with the existing, totally 266.327 ha. In the following Table No.6.4., present and future areas and water requirements are presented on the river basin base: Table No. 6.4. Present and future areas and irrigation water requirements up to 2020 Planned new areas Future area and Current condition and requirements requirements up to 2020 Water Water Area Water Area Area No. River basin requirements requirements (ha) requirements (m3) (ha) (ha) (m3) (m3) 1. Vardar 99.918 731.732.000 122.982 807.022.000 222.900 1.538.754.000 2. Strumica 18.432 117.941.000 8.300 51.402.000 26.732 169.343.000 3. Crn Drim 8.267 49.662.000 8.428 48.952.000 16.695 98.614.000 Total: 126.617 899.335.000 139.710 907.376.000 266.327 1.806.711.000 Source: ERWRM

8 6.2. Water Supply

6.2.1. Drinking Water Supply

6.2.1.1 General In the Republic of Macedonia, there are mainly local water supply systems for cities, towns and villages. Many of them, originally constructed for the city or town, are extended in order to meet the water demands of the local rural areas. There are also regional water supply systems: "Studencica" for Kicevo, Prilep, Makedonski Brod and Krusevo, "Lukar" for Kavadarci, Negotino and 13 villages and "Debar" for town Debar and several close villages. For drinking water supply springs, groundwater and surface water or combined resource are used. Larger cities, which are supplied with spring water, are: Skopje, Prilep, Kicevo, Makedonski Brod, Krusevo, Struga, Debar, Gostivar, Tetovo and Kriva Planka. Groundwater is used for supplying the cities: Skopje, Stip (with pretreatment), Veles, Kocani, Probistip, Gevgelija, Ohrid, Demir Hisar, Delcevo, and Radovis. Surface water is used after treatment of the raw water for the cities: Bitola, Kumanovo, Strumica, Veles, Berovo, Vinica, Sv. Nikole and Kratovo. Combined water supply with spring and surface water is used for Ohrid, Kavadarci and Negotino, while groundwater and surface water is used for Delcevo and Vinica. Rural water supply systems are mainly supplied from springs and groundwater, but lately, very often they use surface water. Regarding the quantities of the used water for drinking, the only reliable source is the Association of Public Services Providers – ADKOM. On their web-site there are data for the produced and invoiced water for 21 public utilities which provide drinking water supply. Unfortunately, not all the public utilities are on the list (missing: Debar, Kicevo, Ohrid, Prilep, Gevgelija, Kriva Palanka, Berovo Radovis). According to the available data, the total produced water quantity is about 170 mil m3 in 2004, while the invoiced water quantity for 2004 is about 82 mil m3. It is evident that only half of the produced drinking water is invoiced, which indicates to enormous losses in technical and financial sense.

6.2.1.2 Drinking Water Demands In NEAP 1 document, total drinking water demands/year are defined upon the number of population according the Census 1994 and water supply norms. The norms for the cities were from 0,300 to 0,400 m3/capita/day, while for the rural water supply norm was 0,250 m3/capita/day. For the requirements of ERWRM, new calculation of the drinking water demands/year was performed, but due to the experiences and studies after NEAP 1, rural water supply norm was reduced on 0,2 m3/capita/day. In NEAP 2, following the results of the Census 2002 and water supply norms from ERWRM, total drinking water demands/year are estimated for every municipality. Population is divided into city and rural population and it is multiplied with different water supply norms. Currently, total drinking water supply demands for the Republic of Macedonia are 212.010.779 m3/year. In the Table No.6.5., drinking water supply demands/year on river basin base are presented, according to NEAP 2 : Table 6.5. Drinking water demands according NEAP 2 Drinking water demands, River basin NEAP 2 m3/year River Vardar 183.567.187 River Strumica 11.348.854 River Crn Drim 17.094.739 Total: 212.010.779

9 6.2.1.3 Drinking Water Quality The Republic Health Institute performs the monitoring of the drinking water quality from Skopje and ten regional Health Institutes through the country. According to their data, drinking water quality in the public water supply systems is very good and safe to use. But, there are some cases of problematic water quality in Sv. Nikole, Veles, Kratovo and temporary in Kavadarci.

6.2.1.4 Current Condition of the Water Supply Systems In many urban areas the current condition of the water supply systems is not satisfying regarding the distribution network, main convey pipelines, water storage tanks, structures and other facilities. The network is mostly worn out, rather old, the capacity of the pipelines is not meeting the growing demands and are constructed of very different materials: cost iron, asbestos concrete, PVC, concrete etc. The final results are very high water losses, which are estimated on 10-60% of the total consumed water. Additionally, domestic water supply systems are also in a bad condition, which increase the water losses, too. The water storage tanks in many cities have no sufficient capacity, which results in shortage of water during the day. This shortage of drinking water especially in the summer period leads to restriction of the water supply for few hours in a day. This measure has very negative impact on the technical condition of the network and other structures, as well as on water quality. Regarding the rural water supply systems, there are no data on their condition, or efficient system for their operation, maintenance and financing. According the experience, once they are put in operation, there are no regular monitoring on the condition, so only necessary remedies are performed when they are needed. If the system is operated and maintained by a public utility, then the condition is more under control.

6.2.1.5 Management of the Water Supply Systems In all cities and towns there are public utilities (public enterprises), which manage the water supply systems. Some of the rural water supply systems are also managed by public utility formed by the local self-government unit. According to the Law on self-government, drinking water supply is responsibility of the self-government units, as well as wastewater collection, disposal and treatment of the wastewater. These public utilities are also performing other activities such as: disposal of the solid waste, maintenance of the green areas in the cities, management of the green markets etc. Rural water supply systems are managed by the local public utility, if there is, or by local people who are not skilled in this area, without enough devices and machines for undertaking this task efficiently, on time and with good performance quality. 6.2.1.6 Problems Regarding the current condition of the drinking water supply, there are several problems to be addressed: • condition of the water supply systems in many cities are not satisfying; • not sufficient water supply systems in the rural areas; • high water losses and very low water use efficiency; • shortage of water in the regions in eastern, southern and central part of the country (Prilep, Veles, Kumanovo, Kratovo, Kriva Palanka, Tetovo); • water quality problems in Sv. Nikole, Veles, Kratovo and temporary Kavadarci; • inefficient operation and maintenance of the systems in rural areas; • low cost revenues collecting rates of the public utilities; • no regular monitoring of the water quality and quantity in rural water supply systems; • no database on national level for all issues related to drinking water supply. 6.2.1.7 Drinking Water Demands for Tourists There is no data on water quantities consumed by tourists. In ERWRM, the drinking water demands are estimated by the number of tourists and water supply norm. This norm is from 0,350 m3/tourist/day 10 to 0,500 m3/tourist/day. The total drinking water demands for tourist for year 1996 were 6.258.000 m3. Divided upon river basin base water demands for the tourists are presented in the following Table No.6.6.: Table No.6.6. Water demands for tourists Water demands for tourists No. River basin (m3/year) 1. Vardar 2.041.000 2. Strumica 162.000 3. Crn Drim 4.055.300 TOTAL 6.258.300 Source: ERWRM It is obvious that in the river Crn Drim basin, where are the two largest lakes Ohrid and Prespa (the major tourist locations), the water demands for tourists are the highest. There is no significant change in the number of tourists in the period from 1997 to 2003, so these data can be representative for the whole mentioned period. 6.2.1.8 Future Drinking Water Demands Estimations for future drinking water demands are performed in ERWRM, covering two horizons 2010 and 2020. The number of population is taken from the expert report "Projections on population and labour up to 2020". According to this report, in 2010, in the Republic of Macedonia, there would be 2.078.670 inhabitants, while in 2020, 2.228.000 inhabitants. Growing rate for these two horizons breakdown is 0,41%, actually 0,67%, while the average growing rate is 0,52 %. The water supply norms are defined in accordance to the size of the cities, population life standard, economy development, culture and habits, etc, and are presented in the following Table No.6.7.: Table No. 6.7. Drinking water supply norm for year 2010 and 2020 Year 2010 Qs Year 2020 Qs No. Municipality-urban areas (m3/capita/day) (m3/capita/day) 1. Skopje 0,500 0,550 2. Bitola, Kumanovo, Veles, Prilep, Ohrid, Struga, Stip, Gostivar, Tetovo, Strumica 0,450 0,500 3. Skopje-Suto Orizari, Kicevo, Kriva Palanka, Kratovo, Kavadarci, Negotino, Berovo, Pehcevo, Delcevo, Vinica, Kocani, Probistip, Sv. Nikole, Krusevo, Valandovo, Gevgelija, Dojran, Radovis, Resen and Debar 0,370 0,400 4. Rural areas 0,270 0,300 Source: ERWRM Using these water supply norms and predicted number of inhabitants, total drinking water supply demands for 2010 and 2020 for the population and the drinking water demands for tourists taken from the expert report on "Development of tourism and organization of the tourist locations"., are presented in the following Table No.6.8.: Table No.6.8. Drinking water demands (population and tourists) in 2010 and 2020 Total drinking water demands Total drinking water demands No. River basin 2010 (m3/year) 2020 (m3/year) 1. Vardar 249.946.600 293.213.500 2. Strumica 14.671.800 18.233.400 3. Crn Drim 30.279.200 36.814.400 TOTAL 294.897.600 348.261.300 Source: ERWRM Increasing of the water supply norms and respectively water demands in future is not a recommended planning approach from environmental aspect, especially not in the conditions of climate changes. The norms which are used in ERWRM (current and future) are rather high compared to water supply norms in other western European countries. Beside all the specifics of the water supply in the Republic of Macedonia (there is no tradition of use of bottled water for every day use, gardens around the houses are irrigated by the water from the public water supply systems, there is no parallel water

11 supply system for technical purposes, high temperatures in summer period), there should be actions for reduction of the water norms and demands.

6.2.2 Industry Water Supply

6.2.2.1 General Industrial capacities are mostly located in the urban areas or in the close surrounding. Only structures and facilities for energy generation (Hydro Power Plants (HPP), Thermo Power Plants (TPP)), mining, and oil refinery are located on larger distance from urban areas. Considering the water consumption, large consumers are industry for energy generation, food processing industry, chemical, metal, non- ferrous industry, textile etc. According to the water resource, industry capacities can be divided in two groups: industry connected to public water supply systems, using water with high quality and industry with own water recourse (spring, wells, river diversion, reservoir etc).

6.2.2.2 Consumed Water for Industry Available data for water consumed by the industry are given in the Statistical Yearbooks, from 1994 to 2002. According to the data, totally consumed water for industry (water for cooling and of TPP and other industries) are as follows: Table No.6.9. Consumed water by industry No. Year Consumed water by industry (m3/year) 1. 1994 226.788.000 2. 1995 252.498.000 3. 1996 313.302.000 4. 1997 161.477.000 5. 1998 241.888.000 6. 1999 195.614.000 7. 2000* 58.269.000 8. 2001* 83.217.000 9. 2002* 67.884.000 Source: Statistical Yearbooks *water used for cooling of TPP is not included, due to new methodology of data presentation, all water used by ESM is presented in one number It is very important to emphasize that large number of industry facilities currently are not operating, due to difficult economic situation in the country. Some of the factories are closed, some of them are working with reduced capacities and other change their production. The largest consumers are chemical industry, food processing, non-ferrous metal production, textile fiber and fabric industry. Water used for production of electric energy, except for cooling of the thermo plants, is not actually spent or polluted, because it only passes through the turbines, without changing it quantity or quality. Existing thermo plants "REK-Bitola" and "REK-Oslomej", use technological water with recirculation water supply systems. In these systems raw water is used only for covering the water losses. Thermo plant in Negotino is using running water from river Vardar.

6.2.2.3 Problems Currently, there is no data on quality of the used water, whether that industry has water permission for abstraction of water, and if it has, whether it is respected, how much water is used for unit of product etc.

12 6.2.2.4 Future Industry Water Demands It is very difficult to predict industry water demands, when there is no firm economic strategy for development. In ERWRM document, there are predicted industry water supply demands for the horizon 2010 and 2020. The estimations were made on the base of the predicted specific consumption for different industrial products. The results are given in the following Table No.6.10.: Table No.6.10. Industry water demands in 2010 and 2020 Industry water demands 2010 Industry water demands 2020 No. River basin (m3/year) (m3/year) 1. Vardar 243.961.800 243.961.800 2. Strumica 34.441.700 34.441.700 3. Crn Drim 8.610.500 8.610.500 TOTAL 287.014.000 287.014.000 Source: ERWRM

6.2.3 Water Used for Energy Production Total hydropower potential of Macedonia is estimated on 5.200 GWh and currently is used almost 27% or 1.500 GWh, with installed power of 431 KW. Depending on the hydrological conditions, the hydropower covers from 10 to 19% of the total energy demands in the country. The annual production in 2000 was 1.170 GWh, in 2001, 621,5 GWh, in 2002, 755,4 GWh and in 2003, 1.370 GWh. Total quantities of the used water are presented for the period 1994-1999 in the next Table No.6.11: Table No.6.11. Water used for energy production Water used for Hydropower Water used for Thermal Total water used for No. Year plants HPP power plants TPP energy production (m3) (m3) (m3) 1. 1994 1.775.020.000 1.550.213.000 143.750.000 2. 1995 1.678.356.000 1.411.439.000 143.498.000 3. 1996 594.614.000 339.728.000 13.531.000 4. 1997 2.473.776.000 2.270.170.000 14.448.000 5. 1998 1.864.143.000 1.719.954.000 93.290.000 6. 1999 2.167.298.000 2.022.161.000 101.033.000 Source: Statistical Yearbook 1995-2000 It has to be emphasized that this category of water use is not actually using the water as a resource, because the water is not consumed. Due to this fact, we do not treat energy production sector as real user of water, especially water for HPP, because the water is only passing through the turbines, without loosing the quantity or deteriorating the quality.

6.2.4 Fisheries 6.2.4.1 Current demands Currently, there are 20 fisheries in the Republic of Macedonia, out of which 15 are for trout and 5 for carp. For the water demands, it is accepted that there is no water losses at the trout fisheries (the water can be used downstream for other purposes), while for the carp fisheries, the water losses is assessed on 2 m3 for 1 m2/year of the fishery area. In the following Table No. 6.12., the water demand and losses are presented upon the river basins: Table No. 6.12. Current water demands and water losses for fisheries Water Demands Water losses No. River Basin (m3/year) (m3/year) 1. Vardar 170.840.000 11.000.000 2. Strumica 0 0 3. Crn Drim 31.300.000 2.700.000 Total 202.140.000 13.700.000 Source: ERWRM 13 Even a significant amount of water is used for the fisheries, it can be concluded that fisheries are not real consumer of water. The water is passing through the fisheries, and later downstream it can be used again for other purposes. The water losses are 13,7 millions m3/year, which can not be treated as important quantity on national level.

6.2.4.2 Future Demands According to ERWRM, in 2020, the area of fisheries for trout is planned to be increased for 4,21 ha and together with the current 2,31 ha, there should be 6,52 ha. For carp fisheries, the actual area of 700 ha is planned to be increased for another 750 ha, which means total of 1.455 ha. The total water demands for fisheries at 2020 is planned to be 414.300.000 m3, while the water losses at carp fisheries to be 28.700.000 m3. In the following Table No.6.13., the water demands and losses are presented upon river basins. Table No. 6.13. Future water demands and water losses for fisheries Water Demands in 2020 Water losses in 2020 No. River Basin (m3/year) (m3/year) 1. Vardar 276.600.000 26.000.000 2. Strumica 0 0 3. Crn Drim 138.700.000 2.700.000 Total 414.300.000 28.700.000 Source: ERWRM

6.2.5 Minimum accepted flows (biological minimum) Data for the minimum acceptable water flow (biological minimum), which should be all the time available in the riverbeds for survival of life in aquatic environment, are defined in the ERWRM document as 10% of the average discharges of the particular river. In the following Table No.6.14, water quantities as minimum acceptable water flows are presented on river basin base: Table No.6.14. Minimum acceptable water flows Water quantities as minimum No. River basin acceptable water flows (m3/year) 1. Vardar 457.000.000 2. Strumica 13.000.000 3. Crn Drim 164.000.000 Total 635.000.000 Source: ERWRM It is necessary to establish a methodology for estimation of the minimum accepted flows on the base of not only average river discharge, but, taking under consideration many other factors important for the life in the water as environment.

6.3. Total Water Demands (Current and Future) Sums of the total water demand including: population, tourists, irrigation, industry, fisheries and minimum accepted flows (data are taken from NEAP 2 and ERWRM) are calculated for two time periods: current total water demands and in 2020. The results are presented in the following Tables No.6.15. and 6.16.: Table 6.15. Total water demands - current condition Water demands (x 103 m3/year) Population Minimum Total water River basin and tourists Industry Irrigation Fisheries accepted flow demands Vardar 185.608,2 233.025,1 731.732,0 170.840,0 457.000,0 1.778.205,3 Strumica 11.510,9 32.897,6 117.941,0 0 13.000,0 175.349,5 Crn Drim 21.150,0 8.224,3 49.662,0 31.300,0 164.000,0 274.336,3 Total 218.269,1 274.147,0 899.335,0 202.140,0 635.000,0 2.227.891,1 Source: NEAP 2 and ERWRM 14 In the following table, predicted water demands are presented by types of users and by river basins for the horizon 2020. Table 6.16. Total water demands - horizon 2020 Water demands (x 103 m3/year) Population Minimum Total water River basin and tourists Industry Irrigation Fisheries accepted demands flow Vardar 293.213,5 243.961,8 1.538.754,0 276.600,0 457.000,0 2.809.529,3 Strumica 18.233,4 34.441,7 169.343,0 0 13.000,0 235.018,1 Crn Drim 36.814,4 8.610,5 98.614,0 138.700,0 164.000,0 446.738,9 Total 348.261,3 287.014,0 1.806.711,0 414.300,0 635.000,0 3.491.286,3 Source: NEAP 2 and ERWRM

15 16 7. Vulnerability Assessment 7.1. Findings from the Existing and Past Climate Change Related Projects 7.1.1 Introduction The Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning as a national coordinator for the climate change issues, and as well as a responsible authority for creation of the policy and implementation of the provisions of the Framework Convention of UN for Climate Change, established a project office for climate changes in January 2000. Through the office activities, with the financial assistance of the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), and through the implementation of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the First National Communication was prepared and adopted by the Government of the Republic of Macedonia in February 2003. The next month, the Communication was submitted to the Secretariat of the Convention, and in December 2003 was presented in front of the highest body of the Convention, the Conference of the Sides. This Report is available on www.unfccc.org.mk. Beside this Communication, the Report on Self-Assessment of Country Capacity Needs for Global Environmental Management was elaborated during the period from June 2003 up to March 2005. The Report is analyzing the thematic areas of climate change, desertification and land degradation and biodiversity. The Self-Assessment Report is part of the obligations of the Republic of Macedonia, after signing of the international Conventions for Climate Change, Land Degradation and Desertification and Biodiversity. The realization of the Self-Assessment Report was performed in the frame of the UNDP activities. 7.1.2 First National Communication of the Republic of Macedonia to the Framework Convention of United Nations for Climate Change In the First National Communication (FNC) for climate change, several areas are analyzed: national conditions, greenhouse gas emissions, reduction and projections for emissions, the vulnerability are assessed and measures for adaptation are proposed. The part related to hydrology and water resources is of special interest. In this part, the basic hydrographic characteristics of the river basins, quantitative data for the available water resources, demands (current and future), as well as the organized system of the water management in the Republic of Macedonia are presented. In the Action Plan for adaptation the following areas of intervention are identified: hydrometeorology, water supply, wastewater, irrigation and energy. The proposed technical measures to overcome the problems are: Hydrometeorology-modernization of the network, efficient processing of the recorded data; water supply-reduction of the water losses, installment of pressure meters, recycling of the water which is not used for drinking; wastewater-treatment of the wastewater and its re-use, washing of the streets and cars with recycled water; irrigation-replacement of the open canals with pipes, introduction of techniques with a low consumption of water; energy-installation of efficient turbines, keeping the reservoirs at lower level, construction of alternative systems etc. Beside these technical measures, it is recommended that the sector of water resources should be treated in an integral manner, models for prediction as one of the most important adaptation measures should be used and the legal requirements regarding preparation of the national planning documents such as the Water Master Plan, Spatial Plan etc should be respected. It is emphasized that during the preparation of these documents, future water demands should be determined considering the climate change impact. After preparation of the First National Communication for climate changes, the thematic reports were given to experts teams, who prepared reviews and proposed recommendation for different analysis which should be performed during the preparation of the Second National Communication (SNC) for climate change. In the Review concerning the Hydrology and Water Resources, it was recommended that in the SNC for climate change or due to the large scope as a separate analysis, the following analysis should be elaborated: 1) Identification of endangered regions, 2) Study for the status of the meteorological and

17 hydrological monitoring network and improvement measures, 3) Climate change impact on the deterioration of the water quality, 4) Reduction of the water resources on a river basin base and balance of the available water resources and water demands in the climate change conditions, 5) Availability of the groundwater, 6) Preparation of National Action Plan (NAP) with more detailed actions and more precise time schedule, 7) Study on financial instruments for implementation of the NAP, 8) Study for the impact of the reduced water resources on economic, social, health and administrative aspects, 9) Study for the extreme hydrological events – floods and droughts, 10) Application of simulation model for analyzing the climate change impact on water resources, and 11) Research on possibilities for use of thermal waters as a source for alternative energy. Following the recommendations from the reviews of each thematic area, Terms of Reference were elaborated for the Second National Communication for climate change. The preparation of this Report is part of the SNC and refers to water resources.

7.1.3 Report on Self-Assessment of Country Capacity Needs for Global Environmental Management The project for Self-Assessment of Country Capacity Needs for Global Environmental Management (NCSA Project) was implemented in the Republic of Macedonia in the period from June 2003 until February 2005. The main objective of the NCSA Project was to assess the capacities of Macedonia for fulfillment of the obligations coming out of the global conventions for environment: biodiversity (UN CBD), climate change (UN FCCC) and land degradation (UN CCD). The most important goal of NCSA Project is the identification and analysis of the priorities on national level and the needs for capacity development related to implementation of the three conventions from Rio. The (NCSA) project was implemented assessing the key capacity needs and cross-cutting capacity bottlenecks in relation to the three environmental conventions on biodiversity, climate change and desertification / land degradation. It identified priority issues and assessed the national capacities for addressing the issues on systemic, institutional, and individual levels. It also suggested possible actions for overcoming the key capacity constraints. The Action Plan for Capacity Development, emphasizes mitigation of the effects of drought from several aspects, especially as part of rural development strategy and strategy for overcoming socio-economic problems of drought (both strategies are prioritized by NCSA Action plan). Also NCSA Action plan pay attention of sustainable use of natural resources (soil, water, vegetation etc.), education and public awareness raising and transfer of technologies, especially environmentally friendly technologies.

7.1.4. Other projects The draft National Action Plan for Land Degradation and Desertification has been finalized just recently (2006). This document recommends several adaptation measures related to climate change, such as: Development of the National Strategy on Waters, Completion of water master plan, Amendment and adoption of draft Law on waters and drafting of secondary legislation based on EU requirements, Enforcement of regulations concerning the irrigation management transfer to the Water Communities, Strengthening the capacity of the institutions and public bodies in water management sector, Elaboration of a long-term national programme for prevention and/or reduction of LDD and promotion of sustainable development, Reconstruction, rehabilitation, and modernization of irrigation and drainage systems; Modernisation of the operation of water delivery network through development of dynamic control, Development and implementation of management information system for irrigation systems in dry period, Increasing of public awareness for use of measures for preventing/combating LDD (water saving irrigation techniques, cropping pattern, conservation agricultural practices, aforestation…) through preparation/publishing of Farmers Manuals; Promotion and support for research projects on drought mitigation and combating of desertification, etc. Considering the high priority of the adaptation measures for rehabilitation and improvement of the condition of the irrigation and water supply systems and reduction of water losses and increasing of the systems efficiency, few ongoing projects should be mentioned. First of all is the Project for Rehabilitation and Restructuring of Irrigation in Macedonia, which should improve the technical 18 condition of the irrigation systems Bregalnica, Tikves and Polog (about 56.000 ha), and should also improve the management of operation and maintenance of the systems. For the technical part, the opinions for success are common, while the success of the restructuring of the management set up is still questionable, with different level of achievement in different regions. In the valley of south Vardar river, there is ongoing project for rehabilitation and construction of the irrigation systems in Gevgelija-Valandovo region. The irrigation method should be dripping system, which is on one side water saving system, and on other hand very effective method for water application. In the water supply sector, sewage and wastewater treatment there are several ongoing projects. One of the most important is the Municipal Environmental Action Plan under which interventions were made in Ohrid, Struga, Stip, Kumanovo, Veles and Strumica. Other important projects are: modernization and automatic management of the regional water supply system "Studencica", construction of the water supply system, sewage and wastewater treatment plant in the municipality of Krivogastani and other projects. Due to the high investment costs, these projects are mainly financed by foreign donations and soft credits.

7.2. Analysis of meteorological parameters 7.2.1. Air Temperatures The air temperature as one of the most important element of the climate defines the climatic type on certain territory. Information about the air temperatures and their spatial and time distribution has significant role in the analyses of the water balance. The air temperature is also one of the basic elements on which the evaporation and evapotranspiration depend. The main factors which have influence on the evapotranspiration are still not fully investigated, but it is obvious that air temperatures, air humidity and radiation play important roles. The above stated addresses that water demands for crops and water demands for irrigation, as well as the water demands for water supply of the population, depend on the air temperatures. The average monthly and average annual air temperatures in Macedonia for the period from 1961 to 2005 (time series of 45 years) are analyzed for the main meteorological stations: Skopje-Petrovec, Strumica, Bitola, Ohrid, Stip, Lazaropole, Nov Dojran, Gevgelija and Popova Sapka, on the basis of the data provided by the Hydrometeorological Administration. For other main meteorological stations the analyzed data are of shorter recording period, as follows: • Station Solunska Glava, period from 1973 to 2005; • Station Veles, period from 1961 to 2000 with gaps in the series; • Station Resen, period from 1961 to 1993. The results of the analyses for the mentioned period are presented in the Table No.7.1. Table No. 7.1. Multiannual average air temperatures and absolute maximum temperature amplitude Meteorological Tav No ∆T station 0C 1 Skopje-Petrovec 12,3 66,2 2 Veles 13,3 63,5 3 Strumica 12,8 67,3 4 Bitola 11,1 68,1 5 Ohrid 11,2 49,8 6 Resen 9,5 60,0 7 Stip 12,8 62,5 8 Lazaropole 7,0 55,1 9 Nov Dojran 14,3 52,5 10 Gevgelija 14,0 60,9 11 Popova Sapka 4,8 51,9 12 Solunska Glava -0,3 50,5 For the analyzed period, multiannual average values of the temperatures are from 14,30C for Nov Dojran and 140C for Gevgelija in the southern part of the country, 12,80C for Stip and 12,30C for Skopje in the central part of the country, and 4,80C for Popova Sapka and -0,30C for Solunska Glava in the mountain 19 region. In the southern part of the country, the temperatures are higher, and they are decreasing as going to the north. Maximal values of the absolute annual amplitudes for the temperatures are the highest for Skopje, Strumica and Bitola. For the whole territory of the country, the coldest month is January, while the hottest are July and August. The Isotherm map is shown on the following Fig. No.7.1.

Godi{na izotermna karta 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

N

W E 40 0 40 80 Miles S Fig. No.7.1. Annual Isothermal map Source: draft National Action Plan for Land Degradation and Desertification 7.2.2. Precipitations The distribution of the precipitations in Macedonia is timely and spatially uneven. The spatial uneven distribution depends on the geographical longitude and latitude, and the altitude. The annual Isohietic map of Macedonia is presented on the following Fig. No.7.2.

Godi{na izohietska karta do 500mm do 600mm do 700mm do 800mm do 900mm do 1050mm

N W E 40 0 40 80 Miles S Fig. No.7.2. Annual Isohietic map of Macedonia Source: draft National Action Plan for Land Degradation and Desertification Based on the data obtained by the Hydrometeorological Administration, monthly and annual sums of precipitation are analyzed. The length of the series for the precipitations for all analyzed meteorological stations is analog to the length of the air temperatures series. From the analysis of the results it is stated that the average annual sums for the analyzed period are from 463,8 mm in Stip, 498,4 mm in Skopje up to 1061,9 mm in Lazaropole. Lowest amounts of precipitations are recorded in the central parts of Macedonia: region of Gradsko, Tikves and Ovce Pole with average annual sum of precipitation in range of 400-500 mm. This area is the driest area in the Republic of Macedonia and in the Southeast part of Europe. Highest precipitations are recorded on the high mountains (about 1.000 mm) in the western part of the country. In the remaining parts of Macedonia, the annual sums of precipitations are in the range of 600-1000 mm. The most humid years (years when the maximal sums of the annual precipitations are recorded) are: 1965 with 1.561,2 mm on station Popova Sapka, 1999 for station Skopje with 714 mm, 1967 for the stations Bitola, Veles and Resen, 1965 for stations Stip and Popova Sapka and 2002 for the station Nov Dojran. The driest years 20 (years when the minimal sums of the annual precipitations are recorded) are: 2000 for Skopje, Nov Dojran, Lazaropole and Gevgelija, 1993 for Strumica and Ohrid, 1992 for Stip, 1990 for Popova Sapka, 1965 for Bitola, 1961 for Resen and 1977 for Solunska Glava. In the following Table No.7.2. the characteristical years are presented (the most humid year with maximal annual sum of precipitations, the driest year with minimal annual sum of precipitations and average year) for the main meteorological stations. Table No. 7.2. Characteristical years (for the whole calendar year) for the main meteorological stations Meteorological Pmax Pav Pmin No Year Year Year station (mm) (mm) (mm) 1 Skopje-Petrovec 1999 714,0 1976 498,4 2000 300,4 2 Veles 1967 614,0 1976 439,3 1977 285,0 3 Strumica 1973 887,7 2002 565,0 1993 319,3 4 Bitola 1967 863,8 2002 602,5 1965 337,5 5 Ohrid 1969 1075,6 1963 695,1 1993 481,3 6 Resen 1967 1170,0 1963 659,8 1961 388,2 7 Stip 1965 726,0 1974 463,8 1992 258,8 8 Lazaropole 1980 1495,9 1963 1061,8 2000 756,3 9 Nov Dojran 2002 1041,5 1995 626,8 2000 392,0 10 Gevgelija 1971 948,8 2002 668,4 2000 348,7 11 Popova Sapka 1965 1561,2 1962 963,3 1990 568,0 12 Solunska Glava 1983 1268,0 1981 874,4 1977 423,3 The precipitations are timely uneven variables during the multiannual period, but as well as during one year. It is of special importance to define the amount of precipitations during the warmer part of the year (spring and summer), when the water demands for the sectors identified as the major consumers are higher. Due to this fact, for the available series of monthly sums of precipitations, the annual sums of precipitations in the vegetation period and the characteristical years for the vegetation period are defined (Table No.7.3.). The vegetation period is accepted to last 6 months, from 1st of April until 1st of October. Table No.7.3. Characteristical years (for vegetation period) for the main meteorological stations Pmax Pav Pmin No Meteorological station Year Year Year (mm) (mm) (mm) 1 Skopje-Petrovec 1989 439,6 1971 244,2 1993 109,5 2 Veles 1976 381,0 1979 211,0 1997 101,5 3 Strumica 2002 502,5 1966 261,7 1993 114,9 4 Bitola 2002 446,8 1999 255,3 1965 107,2 5 Ohrid 2002 459,6 1986 259,2 1988 95,6 6 Resen 1961 282,4 1977 249,2 1993 143,2 7 Stip 1983 429,9 2001 242,5 1993 79,6 8 Lazaropole 2002 789,3 1989 405,7 2003 206,0 9 Nov Dojran 2002 521,2 1995 270,9 1988 89,2 10 Gevgelija 2004 486,7 1973 260,0 1985 110,2 11 Popova Sapka 2004 727,3 1962 460,2 1993 268,7 12 Solunska Glava 1989 736,7 1984 424,3 1993 249,5 From the table, it can be concluded that average values of the precipitations in the vegetation period are between 244,2 mm for Skopje and 451,3 mm for Popova Sapka. In the vegetation period, the most humid year is 2002 for the stations Strumica, Bitola, Ohrid, Lazaropole, Nov Dojran, 2004 for the stations: Gevgelija and Popova Sapka, 1989 for stations Solunska Glava and Skopje and 1983 for Stip. Minimal sums of precipitations in the vegetation period are recorded in 1993 for the stations Skopje, Strumica, Resen, Stip, Popova Sapka and Solunska Glava, 1988 for Ohrid and Nov Dojran, 1965 for Bitola, 2003 for Lazaropole and 1985 for Gevgelija. Distribution of the precipitations during the year is very variable. What is typical for the distribution of the precipitations is that the larger part of the precipitations are out of the vegetation period, when the water demands for the major consumer (irrigation) are minimal, or even there is no need for water application. The ratio of the sums of the precipitations in the vegetation and out of the vegetation 21 period varies in the multiannual period for each of the analyzed stations. The ratio is between 2 and 0,19 for Gevgelija, and only for 8 out of 45 monitored years (18%) is higher than 1 (only in 8 years, the precipitations in vegetation period are higher than in out of vegetation period). The results of the performed analysis for the ratio of the sums of precipitations in the vegetation and out of vegetation period are presented in the Table No.7.4.: Table No.7.4. Ratio of the precipitations in vegetation and out of vegetation period Meteorological Max Min Pvp>Pnvp No station Pvp/Pnvp Pvp/Pnvp (%) 1 Skopje-Petrovec 2,99 0,38 48,9 2 Veles 21,80 0,37 48,5 3 Strumica 1,98 0,41 35,6 4 Bitola 1,56 0,25 31,1 5 Ohrid 1,32 0,33 6,7 6 Resen 1,12 0,24 3,0 7 Stip 4,04 0,38 66,7 8 Lazaropole 1,59 0,25 8,9 9 Nov Dojran 2,16 0,26 36,4 10 Gevgelija 2,10 0,19 17,8 11 Popova Sapka 1,80 0,42 40,4 12 Solunska Glava 3,76 0,48 51,5 From the results presented in the above table, it can be concluded that for the all meteorological stations except for Stip and Solunska Glava, the precipitations during the year, have higher amounts in out of vegetation period than in the vegetation period. In July and August, and sometimes in September, the sums of precipitations have the lowest amounts for all analyzed meteorological stations. Applying the formula of Turc (1955) for calculation of the effective rain, the monthly and annual sums of the effective rain are calculated for the main meteorological stations. The values of the average annual effective rain are presented in the following Table No.7.5.: Table No.7.5. Annual average effective rain Meteorological Tav Pav Pef No L D station 0C mm mm 1 Skopje-Petrovec 12,3 498,4 700,5 420,3 78,1 2 Veles 13,3 439,5 750,1 394,2 45,3 3 Strumica 12,8 565 724,9 460,2 104,8 4 Bitola 11,1 602,5 645,9 452,8 149,7 5 Ohrid 11,2 695,1 650,2 486,3 208,8 6 Resen 9,5 659,8 580,4 445,6 214,2 7 Stip 12,8 463,8 724,9 405,3 58,5 8 Lazaropole 7 1061,8 492,2 450,5 611,3 9 Nov Dojran 14,3 621,7 803,7 507,9 113,8 10 Gevgelija 14 668,4 787,2 525,0 143,4 11 Popova Sapka 4,8 963,3 425,5 392,5 570,8 12 Solunska Glava -0,3 874,4 292,5 278,8 595,6 One of the simplest schemes for classification of the climatic regimes is based on the index of drought, proposed by De Martonne. According to this index of drought, territory of the Republic of Macedonia has the index value of 24,2 and 28,7 in the region with Continental sub-Mediterranean climate, then in regions with warm Continental climate the value of the index is between 25,0 and 40,6, in the regions with cold Continental climate the index value is 33,6 and in the regions with Alpine Mountainous climate, the value of the index of drought is 82,4 (Source: Self-assessment of the Country Capacities Needs for Global Environment Management, thematic area of land degradation and desertification). Distribution of the precipitations and temperatures in Macedonia classified the climate in the category of semi-arid climate.

22 7.2.3.Evaporation Evaporation from the free water surface depends on air temperatures, humidity, wind and other meteorological conditions. Due to this fact, under the climate change conditions, increase of the temperatures increases the evaporation, evapotranspiration, soil humidity and infiltration. According to the data provided by the Hydrometeorological Administration, evaporation from the free water surface is within the range from 400 to 580 mm annually for Skopje, 300 mm for Bitola and 700 mm for Gevgelija. Due to the lack of meteorological and climate data there was no possibility to estimate evaporation using empirical equations.

7.2.4. Climatic Scenarios In the Report on Climate Change Scenarios for Macedonia, Review of Methodology and Results, changes of the average annual temperatures and precipitations are assessed until the end of 21 century, based on the results of GCM for selected nine meteorological stations. The referent period for analyses is 1961-1990. The average values of the changes for all analyzed scenarios are graphically presented, as well as the range across the median values. Using the predicted values of increase of the annual mean temperatures and reduction of precipitation, calculations for effective rain were performed for 2050 and 2100. The results are presented in the Tables No.7.5a and 7.5b.: Table No.7.5a. Effective rain predicted for 2050 Tav Pav Pef 2050 /Pef No Monitoring 2050 2050 D Pef 1990 station C mm mm mm % 1 Skopje-Petrovec 14,2 474,1 423,6 50,5 60,1 2 Veles 15,5 416,0 391,9 24,1 51,9 3 Strumica 14,9 533,4 466,9 66,5 61,9 4 Bitola 13,4 563,8 467,1 96,8 64,7 5 Ohrid 13,1 677,4 513,8 163,6 76,9 6 Resen 11,5 693,7 491,4 202,3 79,3 7 Stip 14,8 447,1 410,1 37,0 56,8 8 Lazaropole 9,3 1042,6 507,9 534,7 86,5 9 Nov Dojran 16,4 594,6 519,8 74,8 62,9 10 Gevgelija 16,3 641,7 545,8 95,9 65,1 11 Popova Sapka 7,2 971,2 448,3 522,9 87,3 12 Solunska Glava 2,1 801,2 325,7 475,6 87,6 Legend: Pef 2050 – mean value of effective rain for the period 2021-2050 Pef 1990 – mean value of effective rain for the period 1961-1990 Table No.7.5b. Effective rain predicted for 2100 Tav Pav Pef 2100 /Pef No Monitoring 2100 2100 D Pef 1990 station C mm mm mm % 1 Skopje-Petrovec 16,5 438,8 414,8 24,0 28,6 2 Veles 17,8 385,1 377,5 7,6 16,3 3 Strumica 17,2 493,6 460,0 33,6 31,3 4 Bitola 16,0 509,8 462,1 47,8 32,0 5 Ohrid 15,1 642,4 529,6 112,9 53,0 6 Resen 13,5 658,0 512,5 145,5 57,0 7 Stip 17,1 413,8 398,3 15,5 23,8 8 Lazaropole 11,9 1000,1 572,5 427,6 69,2 9 Nov Dojran 18,7 544,5 508,3 36,2 30,5 10 Gevgelija 18,6 587,7 538,2 49,5 33,6 11 Popova Sapka 9,8 931,5 507,0 424,5 70,9 12 Solunska Glava 4,7 768,5 374,7 393,8 72,6 Legend: Pef 2100 – mean value of effective rain for the period 2076-2100 Pef 1990 – mean value of effective rain for the period 1961-1990

23 From the tables it can be concluded that there is a drastic reduction of the effective rain, mainly due to significant increase of the mean air temperatures. The rate of reduction of the effective rain for 2100 varies between 27 % and 84 %.

7.3. Analysis of the Climate Change Impact on the Available Water Resources

7.3.1. Introduction The Republic of Macedonia is a land-locked country located in the central part of the Balkan Peninsula. It covers an area of 25.713 km2. Macedonia borders Serbia to the north, Albania to the west, Greece to the south and Bulgaria to the east. The country’s topography is characterized with large and high mountainous massifs with emphasized vertical partition. The terrain is mostly mountainous. Almost 2/3 of the terrain of the country is mountainous, and valleys are present at 1/3 of the territory. The average elevation is 829 m above sea level. Relief distribution according to elevation is as follows: valley relief up to 300 m a.s.l. – 9,5 %; valley-hilly relief from 301 to 500 m.a.s.l. – 15,9 %; hilly-mountain relief from 501 to 1.000 m a.s.l. – 44,0 %; mountain relief from 1.000 to 1.500 m.a.s.l – 21,3 % and high mountain relief above 1.500 m a.s.l. – 9,3 %. The river valleys and plains are flat and are inter-connected by passes or deep ravines. The slope in the valleys is gentle, but on the mountain there are very steep slopes (more than 30 %). The lowest point of the country is situated on the border with Greece. The geological and tectonic conditions in Macedonia are very complex. In relatively short distances a numerous geological and tectonic forms with different geological developments and geological age exists. The oldest Precambrian rock formations, Quaternary geological formations, as well as the recent deposits are present in several main geotectonic units. Geological development of the terrain has an influence on the hydrogeological conditions, especially of the hydrogeological function of the rock masses and characteristics of the aquifer zones. It influences the borders of the hydrogeological provinces in the country to be almost identical as the main geotectonic units. There are four main hydrogeological provinces in the country: western –Macedonian, Pelagonian massive, Vardar zone and Serbian-Macedonian hydrogeological province. Within western –Macedonian province very complex main karts aquifer systems are formed having high quantity of groundwater reserves and a high capacity of the springs (springs "St Naum" and "Biljanini izvori" at the Ohrid area, "Vrutok" near Gostivar, the spring "Studencica", etc.).

7.3.2. Hydrography The hydrographic territory of Republic of Macedonia is unique natural basin in the Balkan Peninsula and wider because more than 80% of the water resources are formed on the territory of the country. The river network is consisted of smaller and larger rivers. They spring high in the valleys of the mountains: Sar Planina, Baba, Karazica, Belasica and many others enabling water supply of population and irrigation by gravitational way. Also, they represent high potential for energy production. The hydrographic territory of the country belongs to four river basins: Vardar, Crn Drim, Strumica and Juzna (South) Morava river basin. The river basin areas of Vardar River and Strumica River gravitate towards the Aegean Sea. They are the major river basins in the country covering 86,9 % of the total territory. The river basin area of Crn Drim River gravitates towards the Adriatic Sea (12,9 % of the total area), and the river basin area of Juzna Morava which territory is insignificant gravitates towards the Black sea. The River Vardar basin is the largest one, containing 80,4 % of the total territory of the Republic of Macedonia. Its total length is 388 km, of which 301 km run in Macedonia. It springs at the 683 m.a.s.l. near the village Vrutok and runs off into the Aegean Sea. The average annual flow for the time series of 31 years (1960-1991) at the gauging station in Gevgelija profile is 144,9 m3/sec. The River Vardar's major western tributaries are the River Crna and the River Treska, while the longest eastern tributaries are the River Bregalnica and the River Pchinja.

24 The Strumica catchment area covers an area of 1.649 km2, or 6,4 % of the total territory of Republic of Macedonia. Average annual volume of discharged water is approximately 132 x106 m3/year. This area is poorest in water resources. The Crn Drim catchment area covers the catchment areas of the Prespa and Ohrid Lake and the catchment area of the Crn Drim with its tributaries on the territory of the Republic of Macedonia to the Macedonian-Albanian state border. The Crn Drim catchment area covers an area of 3.359 km2, or 13,1 % of the total territory of the country. Over the territory of the country, the river Crn Drim has a length of 44,5 km. Average annual volume of discharged water is approximately 1,64x109 m3. Since the catchment area of Juzna Morava is 44 km2 it does not have some major impact on the available water resources in Macedonia. The river Morava springs in Macedonia and continues to flow in Serbia.

7.3.3. Water Resources (water balance characteristics) The surface inflowing waters in Macedonia are the rivers: Lepenec, Pcinja and Elaska. The out flowing waters are rivers Vardar, Strumica, Crn Drim, Cironska, and Lebnica. Available water quantities from these inflow waters are 1.014 x106 m3/year. Outflow surface waters are rivers Vardar, Strumica, Crn Drim, Cironska and Lebnica. Available water quantities from outflow waters are 6.360 x106 m3/year. Within the territory of Macedonia 84 % of the available water quantities are domicile waters and only 16 % are outside waters. It has been estimated that the domicile waters amount 169,5 m3/s or 5.346 x 106 m3/year in an average year. There are three major natural lakes in Macedonia: lakes Ohrid, Prespa, and Dojran Lake. All of them are shared with the neighboring countries. Lake Ohrid is the largest one with an area of 358,8 km2; of which 229,9 km2 belong to Macedonia and the remainder to Albania. The lake has a hydrological connection with the upper Prespa lake, which has an total area of 274 km2, shared with Greece and Albania. The smallest, Lake Dojran, has a total area of 43 km2 (the Macedonian part amounts 27,4 km2) and is shared with Greece. The capacity of all registered springs in the county is estimated on 991,90 x 106 m3/year. It should be noted that only three springs are located in the area of middle flow of the River Vardar, while the remaining are in the western regions. Eastern Macedonia or the left side of the river Vardar is poor with water. Groundwater resources exist in the country, but it can be stated that there are insufficient data about its availability and quality. Aquifers mainly exist in the main valleys and in the karst region in the western part of the country. Observation and examination of groundwater have not been performed continuously. More detailed examinations have been done in the second part of the last century when hydro-geological units for the rivers were defined. According to the examinations and exploitation of groundwater the data about the static volume for ten valleys were estimated. The total water resources of Macedonia are estimated at: 18,8 x 109 m3 from rainfall (with a 733 mm average rainfall); 6,37 x 109 m3 discharged from the river basin areas; 0,52 x 109 m3 groundwater; and 0,42 x 109 m3 from the largest springs. The annual resources per capita are about 3.150 m3 / year. The major part of the surface waters are formed on the territory of the country by the precipitation. As a result of the morphological and hydrogeological characteristics of the land, the runoff enters the hydrographics network in quite a short time and runs out of the country. A high correlation between precipitation and river flow has been observed. In the past extreme flows (floods and minimal flows as a result of drought) have been registered on rivers, variations of the water levels in both natural lakes and accumulations and variations of ground water tables have been registered. The whole territory of the country was flooded twice in the last fifty years. Extreme floods were registered in hydrographical year 1962/63 when great part of the territory of the country was flooded

25 and in 1979. By the end of the 20th century, exactly starting from 1988 an extreme dry period has been registered. It had a character of an extended dry period lasting more than 7 years (till 1995/96). In general maximal discharges in the rivers are occurring in spring as a result of snow melting and in autumn as a result of a great quantity of precipitation. Flash floods are registered during the summer too. They happen as a result of high intensity rainfall with short duration. Usually minimal discharges of the rivers occur during summer periods. Extreme values of minimal discharges have been registered in 1961 and 1988 and as a result of extended period of dry years. An extended period of dry years has an impact of the hydrological situation of the river network and on the water level of the lakes and ground waters. Such an extended period of dry years has been registered from 1988 till 1995 when absolute minimal values of water levels of the natural lakes and accumulations have been observed. The capacity of the ground waters was decreased. Also the capacity of the springs was reduced below the minimal values. The demands for water supply of population, irrigation, industry, could not be met. Due to the lower water quantities the pollution of the surface and ground waters increased. Lowering of the water level of Prespa Lake reached its absolute minimal value in 2002. Alarming descending of the water level of Dojran Lake caused ecological catastrophe with large consequences on the flora and fauna. This situation happened as a result of natural and anthropogenic factors not only in our country but in the wider region. Fortunately the drought period ended and a small positive trend of increasing of water levels has been noticed starting about four years ago. As a result of increased precipitation for the last two years the water level of both Prespa and Dojran Lake is continuously increasing. It is very important to mention that our county took an effective measure to save Dojran Lake by constructing a water supply system for recharging the lake with groundwater from River Vardar basin. The water quality condition indicates that the natural balance of the rivers has already been disturbed due to pollution by organic matters, heavy metals, pesticides, toxic and organic compounds. The pollution is high downstream from towns where the industries are located, due to the discharging of waste waters (industrial and communal) into rivers without treatment. The water from the springs is of a good quality.

7.3.4. Selection of the Representative Hydrological Stations In order to perform analysis of the impact of the climate change on the available water resources and to identify their vulnerability, the analyses of the discharges at the hydrological stations from the FNC for river Vardar-station Skopje, river Radika-station Boskov Most, river Crna-station Skocivir and for river Strumica-station Susevo are extended until 2003 (including 2003). For identification of the vulnerability level of the water resources for every region in Macedonia (according to the ToR), the analyses of the discharges are extended with eight (8) additional hydrological stations: river Vardar- station Radusa and station Demir Kapija, river Treska-station Makedonski Brod, river Crna-station Dolenci, river Pcinja-station Katlanovska Banja, river Bregalnica-station Oci Pale and station Stip and river Strumica, station Novo Selo. The selection of the hydrological stations which are subject to analysis in the Second National Communication is done according to the criteria applied for selection of the hydrological stations in the First National Communication, 2003, as follows: • Hydrological station should be representative for the river basin (climate and meteorological conditions to present the conditions of the river basin). • Hydrological station to be located on the river which belongs to the main river basins. • Hydrological station to be located on area where the anthropogenic impact on the discharge is minimal (not to be located downstream of water facilities which regulate the discharge and not downstream of dam). • The historical series to be sufficiently long and not to contain systematic or random error. • Close to the hydrological station, meteorological station to exist in order to record the climatic and meteorological parameters.

26 For more detailed analysis of the water resources, division on sub-river basins of the tributaries of the rivers Vardar and Crn Drim (see Fig. No.7.3.) in accordance to the selected hydrological stations is done as follows: - River basin of Vardar: • River basin of Vardar up to hydrological station (HS) Radusa; • River basin of Vardar up to HS Skopje; • River basin of Vardar up to HS Demir Kapija; - River basin of Treska: • River basin of Treska up to HS Makedonski Brod; - River basin of Pcinja: • River basin of Pcinja up to HS Katlanovska Banja; - River basin of Bregalnica: • River basin of Bregalnica up to HS Oci Pale; • River basin of Bregalnica up to HS Stip; - River basin of Crna Reka: • River basin of Bregalnica up to HS Dolenci; • River basin of Crna Reka up to HS Skocivir; - River basin of Strumica: • River basin of Strumica up to HS Susevo; • River basin of Strumica up to HS Novo Selo; - River basin of Radika: • River basin of Radika up to Boskov Most

Hydrological Stations: 1. Radusa - Vardar 2. Skopje – Vardar 1 5 3. Demir Kapija – Vardar 2 6 4. Mak. Brod – Treska 7 5. Katlanovska b. – Pcinja 6. Oci Pale – Bregalnica 4 10 7. Stip – Bregalnica 12 11 8. Dolenci – Crna Reka 9. Skocivir – Crna Reka 3 10. Susevo – Strumica 8 11. Novo Selo Strumica 12. Boskov Most - Radika

9

Fig. No.7.3. Hydrological stations analyzed in the Second National Communication

27 In the following Table No.7.6., the size of the river basin areas, discharges and runoff modules for each hydrological station are presented: Table No.7.6. Runoff modules (specific discharge) Average annual Average multiannual Hydrological River basin area No. River discharge runoff module station A (km2) Qsr (m3/s) Mo (l/s/km2) 1 Radusa Vardar 1.450,0 23,5 16,19 2 Skopje Vardar 4.650,0 57,7 12,40 3 Demir Kapija Vardar 21.350,0 123,9 5,80 4 Makedonski Brod Treska 886,0 10,8 12,18 5 Katlanovska Banja Pcinja 2.794,0 11,4 4,09 6 Oci Pale Bregalnica 845,6 4,72 5,58 7 Stip Bregalnica 2.940,0 10,8 3,66 8 Dolenci Crna Reka 216,5 2,43 11,23 9 Skocivir Crna Reka 3.975,0 19,6 4,92 10 Susevo Strumica 468,0 1,56 3,34 11 Novo Selo Strumica 1.401,0 3,72 2,65 12 Boskov Most Radika 750,9 17,5 23,33

7.3.5. Methodology Assessment of the influence of the climate factors and the climate change impact on the available water resources in the Republic of Macedonia is done applying standard methodology used in stochastic hydrology (Popovska et all., 2004, Yevyevic, 1974). The methodology is consisted of the following phases: • The data for the minimal annual, average annual and maximal annual discharges for each representative hydrological station are set on the graph. On the same graph, the amounts of the multiannual average discharge for the analyzed period (1961-2003), average discharges by decades (1961-1970, 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2003), and the linear trend of the data are presented. • The analysis of variability of the historical data of: annual values of the minimal annual, maximum annual and average annual discharges are performed, as well as the analysis of the average monthly values of the discharges for the period 1961-2003. • The homogeneity of each historical series (minimal annual, average annual and maximal annual) is analyzed for each hydrological station. • The results of the analyses for homogeneity are commented and the decision is made for homogeneity (or not homogeneity) of the analyzed series. • Analysis of the independence of the subsequent members of the historical series is done applying Anderson test. • Autocorrelation graph is elaborated for the historical series. • Analysis about available water resources is done and commented. The fifth and the sixth step of the above mentioned Methodology were elaborated and presented in the Preliminary Report On Second Communication On Climate and Climate Changes and Adaptation in the Republic of Macedonia, section: Vulnerability Assessment And Adaptation For Water Resources Sector, submitted in August 2006. Due to the size of the Preliminary Report and the need for modification of the manner of presentation of the results, these two steps are not presented in this Report. The third, fifth and sixth step are performed using already developed and tested software (Donevska, 1991).

28 7.3.6 Analysis of the Hydrological Parameters

7.3.6.1. Analysis of Homogeneity Introduction The analysis of errors of the hydrological measurement and changes of the hydrological variables with revealing of the size of the random errors and nonhomogeneity and their impact on the features of the historical series is needed always, if reliable hydrological statistical data are required. Historical series of the hydrological variables with regularities and irregularities which they content are of significant practical importance. Any forecast for the future which is based on the historical features of the hydrological variables demands that conclusions are made upon homogeneous series. Due to this fact, analysis of the homogeneity of the series for 12 hydrological stations was performed for minimal annual, average annual and maximal annual discharges. But, it has to be emphasized that in order to discover artificial provoked nonhomogeneity in the hydrological series in a form of trend or jump of the mean value or some other hydrological parameter, only research of the physical factors which provoke that nonhomogeneity in parallel with the stochastic methods for identification and testing can provide fully reliable information for existence, type and the size of the nonhomogeneity. The non homogeneity in hydrological (and also in meteorological) data is a result of the changes in the nature. The non homogeneity is caused naturally or artificially. The artificial modifications of original hydrological and other conditions caused by human activity can be either rapid or slow. The rapid modifications include river derivations, river regulations, etc. Construction of the flood protection embankments along the rivers can cause an increase of the river maximal discharges, but they don’t have any influence on the minimal and average discharges. Construction of dams and reservoirs leads to retention of the maximum discharges and improvement of the downstream river discharge. The slow modifications include river basin urbanization, uncontrolled wood cutting in the river basin that causes an increase of the maximum discharge and the total annual outflow. The natural modifications of original hydrological conditions occur rapidly, at short intervals or slowly, after long periods. Rapid modification includes certain exceptional elemental catastrophes, sudden melting of snow, floods, land slides, sudden scour or deposition of sediment, forest fires, etc. The slow modification cover gradual melting of glaciers, long geomorphological processes of degradation and aggradation of the river bed, slow changes of the climate factors as decreasing of annual precipitation and increasing of the air temperature. The resulting effects of all the above- mentioned modifications, both natural and artificial, individual and combined, can manifest themselves in one or more basic forms of non homogeneity as following: • jump, sudden increase or decrease of the variable’s value, • trend, tendency to slow increase or decrease • cyclicity, periodical increases or decreases • fluctuations, accidental variations around the average • combination, a combined type or two or more basic forms. It is a fact that causes of natural and artificial cause of non homogeneity vary and some of them have an influence on a complete and others only on certain classes of the treated variable. It is also a fact that the available data fund differ by the size of the selected and also of the available data. Finally it should be noted that the practice requires homogenized hydrological (and meteorological) data for any analysis and especially for solid hydrological forecasting. Methodology The examined samples of variables should be tested according to the objective and practical working hypothesis. The main objective is being the discovery of possible non homogeneity in hydrological data. A null hypothesis Ho is defined, Ho: no statistically significant modifications in examined samples are caused by natural or artificial means. The formulated null hypothesis Ho must then be tested against an alternative hypothesis Ha: there are statistically significant modifications in examined 29 samples (for two sides tests). The adoption (or rejection) of the null hypothesis is for the accepted level of significance of the test α=0.05. In the Vulnerability Assessment, testing of the homogeneity of the series of minimal annual, average annual and maximal annual discharges for the 12 hydrological stations has been performed using standard statistical tests in hydrology (Jevgevic, 1972) as following: • Normalized Z test of averages (two sided test) • Student t-test of averages (two sided test) and • Fisher F test of variances (one sided test). The period from 1961 to 2003 has been analyzed (each sample is consisted of 43 elements). According to the size, these samples can not be classified as large. Due to this statement results from the Normalized Z test of averages are not representative, but indicative. Acceptance of the null hypothesis is done according to the Student t-test and Fisher F test for the most often used level of significance of the test α=0.05. Because the size of the tested series (43 elements) is not large enough for statistical testing and decision making about acceptance of the null hypothesis for some samples, it has been decided to test the null hypothesis for these samples for the level of significance of the test α=0.01, as an extreme that is used in modern hydrology practice. Testing of the homogeneity for each of the series (minimal annual, average annual and maximal annual discharges for the 12 hydrological stations) for the time period of 43 years (from 1961 to 2003) has been done comparing two samples X and Y of the observed variable. After analyzing the hydrographs and the average decade discharges of the minimal annual, average annual and maximal annual discharges for the selected hydrological stations, it was noticed that there is a decreasing linear trend in almost all the cases and also decrease of the average decade discharge after 1980. So it seemed logical to test the homogeneity of the series for the following three cases: • Case N0 1 when sample X consists data for the period from 1961 to 1975 and sample Y data for the period from 1976 to 2003, • Case N0 2 when sample X consists data for the period from 1961 to 1980 and sample Y data for the period from 1980 to 2003, • Case N0 1 when sample X consists data for the period from 1961 to 1985 and sample Y data for the period from 1986 to 2003, Decision making about adoption of the null hypothesis (homogeneity of the series) has been done taking into consideration the results from the Student t-test for the Case N0 2, where the two tested samples have nearly the same size. Results from the other two cases are indicative and they show the influence of the size of the sample on the results of the test. Criteria for adoption of the null hypothesis at the level of significance "=0.05 is presented in Table 7.7. and at level of significance "=0.01 in Table 7.8. Table 7.7. Criteria for adoption of a null hypothesis at level of significance of the test "=0.05 TEST value number of data z test -1.96

α T-test -2.02

α T-test -2.704

RIVER VARDAR RADUSA

Minimal annual

river Vardar-Radusa 16.00 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) 14.00 Qmin.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmin.ann)

12.00

10.00 ) s / 3 8.00 Q(m

6.00

4.00

2.00 y = -0.087x + 178.57 R2 = 0.1133

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.4.. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Vardar at Radusa

Table 7.9. Analysis of homogeneity of minimal annual discharges for the river Vardar at Radusa for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 7.36 4.07 1 1.686 1.882 2.566 yes yes no Y 28 5.42 2.54 X 20 6.96 3.69 2 1.6192 1.616 1.927 yes yes yes Y 23 5.35 2.66 X 25 6.99 3.46 3 2.3583 2.188 1.92 no no yes Y 18 4.85 2.5

The series is homogeneous for the Case N01and Case N02 at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and for the Case N03 averages of the two samples differ significantly. At the level of significance of the test "=0.01 the null hypothesis that the series is homogeneous is accepted.

31 Average annual

river Vardar-Radusa 40.00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) 35.00 Qav.ann(1961-2003) Linear (Qav.ann)

30.00

25.00 ) s / 3 20.00 m Q(

15.00

10.00

y = -0.2667x + 552.09 2 5.00 R = 0.262

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.5. Annual values of average discharges for the river Vardar at Radusa

Table 7.10. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharge for the river Vardar at Radusa for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho accepted St. Student Fisher Variable Observation Mean z test Student Fisher Deviation T test F test z test T test F test X 15 27.36 4.94 3.389 3.064 1.685 no no yes Y 28 21.4 6.41 X 20 27.29 4.39 4.334 4.129 2.08 no no yes Y 23 20.15 6.34 X 25 26.64 4.45 4.2639 4.418 2.146 no no yes Y 18 19.07 6.52

The series is non homogeneous at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and at the level of significance of the test "=0.01. There is a need to analyze the physical factors in the river basin which led to not homogeneity.

32 Maximal annual discharges

river Vardar-Radusa 400.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) 350.00 Qmax.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmax.ann)

300.00

250.00 ) s / 3 200.00 m Q(

150.00

100.00

50.00 y = -1.3976x + 2874.1 R2 = 0.0858

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.6. Annual values of maximal annual discharges for the river Vardar at Radusa

Table 7.11. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Vardar at Radusa for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho accepted St. Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 121.29 45.83 1.552 1.369 2.02 yes yes yes Y 28 94.78 65.14 X 20 130.22 69.45 1 2.7928 2.828 3.163 no no no Y 23 81.25 39.04 X 25 122.48 65.19 2 2.7169 2.472 2.536 no no no Y 18 78.41 40.94

Null hypothesis Ho: no statistically significant modifications in examined samples are caused by natural or artificial means is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

33 RIVER VARDAR -SKOPJE

Minimal annual

river Vardar-Skopje 30.00 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) Qmin.av(1961-2003) 25.00 Linear (Qmin.ann)

20.00 ) s / 3 15.00 Q(m

10.00

5.00 y = -0.175x + 361.15 R2 = 0.1496

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.7. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Vardar at Skopje

Table 7.12. Analysis of homogeneity of minimal annual discharges for the river Vardar at Skopje for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 16.28 6.68 1 1.539 1.648 1.872 yes yes yes Y 28 13.27 4.88 X 20 16.13 6.46 2 1.972 1.973 2.08 no yes yes Y 23 12.74 4.47 X 25 16.13 5.95 3 2.773 2.572 1.93 no no yes Y 18 11.81 4.28

Null hypothesis Ho: no statistically significant modifications in examined samples are caused by natural or artificial means is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

34 Average annual

river Vardar-Skopje 140.00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) Qav.ann(1961-2003) 120.00 Linear (Qav.ann)

100.00

80.00 ) s / 3 m Q( 60.00

40.00

20.00 y = -0.7978x + 1639 R2 = 0.3112

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.8. Annual values of average discharges for the river Vardar at Skopje

Table 7.13. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharges for the river Vardar at Skopje for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 67.84 17.8 1 2.84 2.88 1.272 no no yes Y 28 52.23 15.79 X 20 67.64 15.81 2 3.9222 3.84 1.08 no no yes Y 23 49.01 49.01 X 25 66.28 15.09 3 4.4744 4.35 1.056 no no yes Y 18 45.73 14.68

Null hypothesis Ho: no statistically significant modifications in examined samples are caused by natural or artificial means, can not be accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and level of significance "=0.01.

35 Maximal annual

river Vardar-Skopje 1200.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) Qmax.av(1961-2003) 1000.00 Linear (Qmax.ann)

800.00 ) s / 3 600.00 m Q( y = -6.3793x + 12933 R2 = 0.1512 400.00

200.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.9. Annual values of maximal discharges for the river Vardar at Skopje

Table 7.14. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Vardar at Skopje for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho accepted St. Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 336.8 242.44 1 1.02 1.083 1.749 yes yes yes Y 28 263.72 183.32 X 20 381.2 262.32 2 2.8067 2.9 9.541 no no no Y 23 209.23 84.93 X 25 359.32 239.89 3 3.2506 2.784 9.07 no no no Y 18 191.85 79.65

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and level of significance "=0.01.

36 VARDAR –DEMIR KAPIJA

Minimal annual

river Vardar-Demir Kapija 50.00 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) 45.00 Qmin.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmin.ann) y = -0.2501x + 521.28 40.00 R2 = 0.1484

35.00

30.00 ) s / 3 25.00 m Q(

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.10. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Vardar at Demir Kapija

Table 7.15. Analysis of homogeneity of minimal annual discharges for the river Vardar at Demir Kapija for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho accepted St. Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 28.86 8.15 1 2.01 2.002 1.118 no yes yes Y 28 23.7 7.71 X 20 29.08 7.86 2 2.89 2.84 1.194 no no yes Y 23 22.39 7.2 X 25 28.59 7.46 3 3.26 3.169 1.065 no no yes Y 18 18 21.21

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and level of significance "=0.01.

37 Average annual

river Vardar-Demir Kapija 400.00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) 350.00 Qav.ann(1961-2003) Linear (Qav.ann)

300.00

250.00 ) s / 3 200.00 m y = -1.6294x + 3353.4

Q( R2 = 0.1629

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.11. Annual values of average discharges for the river Vardar at Demir Kapija

Table 7.16. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharges for the river Vardar at Demir Kapija for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 142.33 62.19 1 1.5895 1.747 2.274 yes yes yes Y 28 113.96 41.24 X 20 141.59 55.03 2 2.1977 2.186 1.726 no no yes Y 23 108.43 41.89 X 25 142.1 52.03 3 3.2161 2.975 1.995 no no yes Y 18 98.51 36.84

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

38 Maximum annual

river Vardar-Demir Kapija 2500.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) Qmax.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmax.ann) 2000.00

1500.00

) y = -12.646x + 25742 s / 2 3 R = 0.1626 m Q(

1000.00

500.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.12. Annual values of maximal discharges for the river Vardar at Demir Kapija

Table 7.17. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Vardar at Demir Kapija for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 808.4 509.77 1 1.38 1.565 2.82 yes yes no Y 28 609.41 303.43 X 20 826.9 480.67 2 2.32 2.371 3.09 no no no Y 23 550.07 243.19 X 25 790.28 445.22 3 2.5119 2.247 3.331 no no no Y 18 524.03 243.94

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

39 RIVER TRESKA-MAKEDONSKI BROD

Minimal annual

river Treska-Makedonski Brod 4.00 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) 3.50 Qmin.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmin.ann)

3.00 y = -0.0167x + 35.072 R2 = 0.0935

2.50 ) s / 3 2.00 Q(m

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.13. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Treska at Makedonski Brod

Table 7.18. Analysis of homogeneity of minimal annual discharges for the river Treska at Makedonski Brod for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho accepted St. Student Fisher z Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean Deviation z test T test F test test T test F test X 15 2.16 0.75 1 Y 28 1.97 0.65 0.8202 0.833 1.297 yes yes yes X 20 2.22 0.71 2 Y 23 1.87 0.63 1.6908 1.664 1.257 yes yes yes X 25 2.24 0.69 3 Y 18 1.75 0.59 2.52 2.402 1.355 no no yes

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05.

40 Average annual

river Treska-Makedonski Brod 30.00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) Qav.ann(1961-2003) 25.00 Linear (Qav.ann)

20.00 ) s / 3 15.00 m Q(

10.00

5.00 y = -0.1072x + 223.23 R2 = 0.1064

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.14. Annual values of average discharges for the river Treska at Makedonski Brod

Table 7.19. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharges for the river Treska at Makedonski Brod for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 12.13 4.71 1 1.4711 1.548 1.653 yes yes yes Y 28 10.07 3.66 X 20 12.12 4.25 2 2.02 1.994 1.304 no yes yes Y 23 9.64 3.72 X 25 12 3.91 3 2.385 2.33 1.007 no no yes Y 18 9.12 3.92

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05.

41 Maximal annual

river Treska-Makedonski Brod 500.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) 450.00 Qmax.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmax.ann) 400.00

350.00

300.00 y = -0.7836x + 1662 ) 2 s

/ R = 0.014 3 250.00 m Q(

200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.15. Annual values of maximal discharges for the river Treska at Makedonski Brod

Table 7.20. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Treska at Makedonski Brod for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho accepted St. Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 94.68 49.49 1 -0.984 -0.803 3.816 yes yes no Y 28 116.61 96.68 X 20 128.79 97.59 2 1.4374 1.441 2.189 yes yes no Y 23 91.71 65.96 X 25 123.65 91.71 3 1.449 1.347 1.867 yes yes yes Y 18 88.55 67.13

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

42 RIVER RADIKA-BOSKOV MOST

Minimal annual

river Radika-Boskov Most 9.00 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) 8.00 Qmin.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmin.ann) y = -0.0313x + 66.282 7.00 R2 = 0.0672

6.00

) 5.00 s / 3

Q(m 4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.16. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Radika at Boskov Most

Table 7.21. Analysis of homogeneity of minimal annual discharges for the river Radika at Boskov Most for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 4.46 1.61 1 0.4459 0.466 1.634 yes yes yes Y 28 4.24 1.26 X 20 4.79 1.66 2 2.153 2.155 3.233 no no no Y 23 3.89 0.92 X 25 4.72 1.52 3 2.6753 2.375 2.964 no no no Y 18 3.73 0.89

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

43 Average annual

river Radika-Boskov Most 45.00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) 40.00 Qav.ann(1961-2003) Linear (Qav.ann)

35.00

30.00

) 25.00 s / 3 m

Q( 20.00

15.00

10.00

y = -0.2068x + 427 5.00 R2 = 0.127

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.17. Annual values of average discharges for the river Radika at Boskov Most

Table 7.22. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharges for the river Radika at Boskov Most for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 19.02 8.05 1 0.977 1.031 1.738 yes yes yes Y 28 16.68 6.11 X 20 20.07 8.11 2 2.373 2.375 3.202 no no no Y 23 15.19 4.53 X 25 19.48 7.38 3 2.5606 2.321 2.257 no no no Y 18 14.63 4.91

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

44 Maximal annual

river Radika-Boskov Most 300.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) Qmax.av(1961-2003) 250.00 Linear (Qmax.ann)

200.00 ) s / 3 150.00 Q(m

100.00

50.00 y = -1.154x + 2403.4 R2 = 0.0566

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.18. Annual values of maximal discharges for the river Radika at Boskov Most

Table 7.23. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Radika at Boskov Most for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 124.01 60.99 1 0.399 0.394 1.083 yes yes yes Y 28 116.28 58.61 X 20 130.82 63.36 2 1.236 1.216 1.396 yes yes yes Y 23 108.32 53.63 X 25 131.26 59.11 3 1.689 1.628 1.143 yes yes yes Y 18 101.07 55.28

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05.

45 RIVER CRNA-DOLENCI Minimal annual

river Crna-Dolenci 2.50 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) Qmin.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmin.ann) 2.00

1.50 ) s / 3 y = -0.0137x + 27.688 m 2

Q( R = 0.2628

1.00

0.50

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.19. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Crna at Dolenci

Table 7.24. Analysis of homogeneity of minimal annual discharges for the river Crna at Dolenci for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 0.84 0.44 1 3.117 3.842 7.216 no no no Y 28 0.48 0.16 X 20 0.77 0.41 2 3.263 3.36 7.313 no no no Y 23 0.46 0.15 X 25 0.74 0.38 3 3.991 3.402 10.73 no no no Y 18 0.42 0.11

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, must be rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

46 Average annual

river Crna-Dolenci 6.00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) Qav.ann(1961-2003) 5.00 Linear (Qav.ann)

4.00 ) s / 3 3.00 Q(m

2.00

1.00 y = -0.0305x + 62.806 R2 = 0.1745

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.20. Annual values of average discharges for the river Crna at Dolenci

Table 7.25. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharges for the river Crna at Dolenci for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 2.93 0.99 1 2.6219 2.769 1.698 no no yes Y 28 2.16 0.76 X 20 2.83 0.94 2 2.843 2.82 1.578 no no yes Y 23 2.08 0.75 X 25 2.74 0.89 3 2.846 2.728 1.258 no no yes Y 18 2.01 0.79

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, must be rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

47 Maximal annual

river Crna-Dolenci 50.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) 45.00 Qmax.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmax.ann) 40.00

35.00

30.00 ) s / 3 25.00 y = -0.4157x + 839.21 R2 = 0.2185 Q(m

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.21. Annual values of maximal discharges for the river Crna at Dolenci

Table 7.26. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Crna at Dolenci for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho accepted St. z Student Fisher z Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean Deviation test T test F test test T test F test X 15 20.78 12.88 1 Y 28 12.47 9.11 2.21 2.396 1.997 no no yes X 20 20.59 11.94 2 Y 23 10.83 8.29 3.068 3.07 2.075 no no yes X 25 19.81 12.39 3 Y 18 9.2 4.69 3.909 3.377 6.991 no no no

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples must be rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

48 RIVER CRNA-SKOCIVIR

Minimal annual

river Crna-Skocivir 7.00 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) Qmin.av(1961-2003) 6.00 Linear (Qmin.ann)

5.00

4.00 )

s y = 0.037x - 71.553 / 3 R2 = 0.1907 Q(m 3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.22. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Crna at Skocivir

Table 7.27. Analysis of homogeneity of minimal annual discharges for the river Crna at Skocivir for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 1.34 0.55 - 1 -2.181 4.737 no no no Y 28 2.06 1.19 2.726 X 20 1.25 0.59 - 2 -3.572 3.865 no no no Y 23 2.3 1.15 3.812 X 25 1.46 0.8 - 3 -2.686 2.245 no no no Y 18 2.3 1.2 2.584

Null hypothesis Ho: there is no statistically significant modifications in examined samples must be rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

49 Average annual

river Crna-Skocivir 70.00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) Qav.ann(1961-2003) 60.00 Linear (Qav.ann)

50.00

y = -0.312x + 637.92 40.00 R2 = 0.1499 ) s / 3 m Q( 30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.23. Annual values of average discharges for the river Crna at Skocivir

Table 7.28. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharges for the river Crna at Skocivir for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 23.68 11.29 1 1.872 1.963 1.618 yes yes yes Y 28 17.38 8.88 X 20 22.98 10.92 2 2.107 2.09 1.637 no yes yes Y 23 16.61 8.53 X 25 23.17 10.2 3 3.122 2.921 1.713 no no yes Y 18 14.59 7.8

Null hypothesis Ho: there is no statistically significant modifications in examined samples is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

50 Maximal annual

river Crna-Skocivir 600.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) Qmax.av(1961-2003) 500.00 Linear (Qmax.ann)

400.00 ) s / y = -4.0927x + 8279.3 3 300.00 2 m R = 0.2155 Q(

200.00

100.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.24. Annual values of maximal discharges for the river Crna at Skocivir

Table 7.30. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Crna at Skocivir for α=0.05 level of significance Hypotesis Ho St. z Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean Deviation test T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 214.85 107.85 1 2.122 2.086 1.046 no yes yes Y 28 142.17 105.46 X 20 217.09 122.76 2 2.896 2.912 2.428 no no no Y 23 124.42 78.79 X 25 211.27 115.87 3 3.712 3.346 2.918 no no no Y 18 106.76 67.83

Null hypothesis Ho: there is no statistically significant modifications in examined samples must be rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

51 RIVER PCINJA-KATLANOVSKA BANJA

Minimal annual

river Pcinja-Katlanovska Banja 3.00 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) Qmin.av(1961-2003) 2.50 Linear (Qmin.ann)

2.00 )

s y = 0.0022x - 3.499 / 3 1.50 R2 = 0.0022 Q(m

1.00

0.50

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.25. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Pcinja at Katlanovska Banja

Table 7.31. Analysis of homogeneity of minimal annual discharges for the river Pcinja at Katlanovska Banja for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho accepted St. z Student Fisher z Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean Deviation test T test F test test T test F test X 15 0.75 0.47 - 1 Y 28 1.02 0.65 1.589 -1.415 1.876 yes yes yes X 20 0.92 0.61 - 2 Y 23 0.93 0.61 0.061 -0.06 1.02 yes yes yes X 25 0.95 0.61 3 Y 18 0.89 0.61 0.291 0.284 1.018 yes yes yes

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05.

52 Average annual

river Pcinja-Katlanovska Banja 25.00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) Qav.ann(1961-2003) Linear (Qav.ann) 20.00

15.00 ) s / Q(m3

10.00

5.00 y = -0.2011x + 410.07 R2 = 0.3666

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.26. Annual values of average discharges for the river Pcinja at Katlanovska Banja

Table 7.32. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharges for the river Pcinja at Katlanovska Banja for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 14.2 4.02 1 3.467 3.535 1.331 no no yes Y 28 9.94 3.48 X 20 13.86 3.71 2 4.186 4.117 1.222 no no yes Y 23 9.31 3.36 X 25 13.42 3.56 3 4.494 4.341 1.142 no no yes Y 18 8.66 3.33

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

53 Maximal annual

river Pcinja-Katlanovska Banja 400.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) 350.00 Qmax.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmax.ann)

300.00

250.00 ) s / 200.00 y = -3.6066x + 7302.4

Q(m3 R2 = 0.233

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.27. Annual values of maximal discharges for the river Pcinja at Katlanovska Banja

Table 7.33. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Pcinja at Katlanovska Banja for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 200.69 103.66 1 2.332 2.467 1.715 no no yes Y 28 129.18 79.16 X 20 199.07 100.7 2 3.159 3.167 2.199 no no no Y 23 115.04 67.9 X 25 185.47 99.2 3 2.964 2.72 2.239 no no no Y 18 110.59 66.3

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

54 RIVER BREGALNICA-OCI PALE

Minimal annual

river Bregalnica-Oci Pale 1.20 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) Qmin.av(1961-2003) 1.00 Linear (Qmin.ann)

y = 0.0011x - 1.7316 R2 = 0.0035

0.80 ) s / 3 0.60 m ( Q

0.40

0.20

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.28. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Bregalnica at Oci Pale

Table 7.34. Analysis of homogeneity of minimal annual discharges for the river Bregalnica at Oci Pale for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 0.43 2 1 -0.514 -0.47 1.551 yes yes yes Y 28 47 0.25 X 20 0.44 0.22 2 -0.323 -0.313 1.229 yes yes yes Y 23 0.46 0.25 X 25 0.45 0.22 3 -0.089 -0.09 1.326 yes yes yes Y 18 0.46 0.25

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05.

55

Average annual

river Bregalnica-Oci Pale 18.00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) 16.00 Qav.ann(1961-2003) Linear (Qav.ann)

14.00

12.00

) 10.00 y = -0.0708x + 145.14 s

/ 2

3 R = 0.1025

Q(m 8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.29. Annual values of average discharges for the river Bregalnica at Oci Pale

Table 7.35. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharges for the river Bregalnica at Oci Pale for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho accepted St. Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 5.57 3.51 1 1.303 1.447 2.455 yes yes no Y 28 4.26 2.24 X 20 5.61 3.27 2 1.977 1.991 2.564 no yes no Y 23 3.94 2.04 X 25 5.42 2.99 3 2.118 1.966 1.896 no yes yes Y 18 3.75 2.17

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

56

Maximal annual

river Bregalnica-Oci Pale 450.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) 400.00 Qmax.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmax.ann)

350.00

300.00

y = 0.2937x - 472.26

) 250.00 2 s / R = 0.0017 3

Q(m 200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.30. Annual values of maximal discharges for the river Bregalnica at Oci Pale

Table 7.36. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Bregalnica at Oci Pale for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 89.54 41.47 - 1 -1.078 6.415 yes yes no Y 28 120.71 105.04 1.382 X 20 117.71 97.03 2 0.531 0.525 1.378 yes yes yes Y 23 102.98 82.65 X 25 118.77 92.18 3 0.783 0.755 1.176 yes yes yes Y 18 97.43 84.99

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05.

57 RIVER BREGALNICA-STIP

Minimal annual

Hidrogram 4.00 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) 3.50 Qmin.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmin.ann)

3.00 y = -0.0092x + 19.73 R2 = 0.0131

2.50 ) s / 3 2.00 Q(m

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.31. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Bregalnica at Stip

Table 7.37. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Bregalnica at Stip for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho accepted St. Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 1.44 1.17 - 1 -0.668 1.65 yes yes yes Y 28 1.66 0.91 0.635 X 20 1.77 1.2 2 1.132 1.137 2.305 yes yes no Y 23 1.42 0.79 X 25 1.82 1.12 3 1.972 1.804 2.34 no yes no Y 18 1.26 0.73

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05.

58 Average annual

river Bregalnica-Stip 40.00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) 35.00 Qav.ann(1961-2003) Linear (Qav.ann)

30.00

25.00 ) s / 3 20.00 y = -0.2091x + 425.23 R2 = 0.1886 Q(m

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.32. Annual values of average discharges for the river Bregalnica at Stip

Table 7.38. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharges for the river Bregalnica at Stip for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho accepted St. Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 12.96 6.86 1 1.661 1.75 1.666 yes yes yes Y 28 9.58 5.32 X 20 13.22 6.41 2 2.6187 2.604 1.708 no no yes Y 23 8.61 4.9 X 25 13.07 5.87 3 3.389 3.204 1.5 no no yes Y 18 7.55 4.79

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

59 Maximal annual

river Bregalnica-Stip 400.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) 350.00 Qmax.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmax.ann)

300.00

250.00 y = -2.0086x + 4101.2 R2 = 0.0778 ) s / 3 200.00 Q(m

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.33. Annual values of maximal discharges for the river Bregalnica at Stip

Table 7.39. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Bregalnica at Stip for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 127.2 90.84 1 0.373 0.363 1.017 yes yes yes Y 28 116.34 91.63 X 20 139.78 97.22 2 1.326 1.31 1.392 yes yes yes Y 23 103.04 82.39 X 25 142.95 90.19 3 2.04 1.973 1.181 no yes yes Y 18 88.44 82.98

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05.

60 RIVER STRUMICA-SUSEVO

Minimal annual

river Strumica-Susevo 0.50 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) 0.45 Qmin.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmin.ann) 0.40

0.35

0.30 ) s / 3 0.25 Q(m y = -0.0031x + 6.1442 0.20 R2 = 0.1303

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.34. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Strumica at Susevo

Table 7.40. Analysis of homogeneity of minimal annual discharges for the river Strumica at Susevo for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho accepted St. z Student Fisher z Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean Deviation test T test F test test T test F test X 15 0.16 0.14 1 Y 28 0.06 0.07 2.589 3.038 4.014 no no no X 20 0.14 0.13 2 Y 23 0.06 0.07 2.295 2.33 3.506 no no no X 25 0.13 0.12 3 Y 18 0.04 0.04 3.426 2.952 7.509 no no no

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

61 Average annual

river Strumica-Susevo 4.00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) 3.50 Qav.ann(1961-2003) Linear (Qav.ann)

3.00

2.50

y = -0.0325x + 65.961 ) 2 s

/ R = 0.2766 3 2.00 Q(m

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.35. Annual values of average discharges for the river Strumica at Susevo

Table 7.41. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharges for the river Strumica at Susevo for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 2.05 0.79 1 3.154 3.29 1.556 no no yes Y 28 1.3 0.64 X 20 1.98 0.74 2 3.693 3.655 1.471 no no yes Y 23 1.2 0.61 X 25 1.92 0.7 3 4.234 4.028 1.383 no no yes Y 18 1.07 0.6

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

62 Maximal annual

river Strumica-Susevo 250.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) Qmax.av(1961-2003) Linear (Qmax.ann) 200.00

150.00 ) s / 3 Q(m

100.00 y = -1.7165x + 3446.1 R2 = 0.2067

50.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.36. Annual values of maximal discharges for the river Strumica at Susevo

Table 7.42. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Strumica at Susevo for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 63.87 66.09 1 1.704 2.037 4.895 yes yes no Y 28 33.24 29.87 X 20 65.88 59.06 2 2.943 3.032 7.588 no no no Y 23 24.84 21.44 X 25 58.5 54.98 3 2.833 2.469 5.607 no no no Y 18 23.69 23.22

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is rejected at the level of significance of the test "=0.05 and at the level of significance of the test "=0.01.

63 RIVER STRUMICA-NOVO SELO

Minimal annual

river Strumica-Novo Selo 0.70 Qmin.ann Qmin.av(ten year) Qmin.av(1961-2003) 0.60 Linear (Qmin.ann)

0.50

0.40 ) s / 3

Q(m y = -0.0012x + 2.4636 0.30 R2 = 0.0111

0.20

0.10

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.37. Annual values of minimal discharges for the river Strumica at Novo Selo

Table 7.43. Analysis of homogeneity of minimal annual discharges for the river Strumica at Novo Selo for α=0.05 level of significance

Hypothesis Ho St. Student Fisher accepted No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 0.16 0.13 1 0.608 0.572 1.277 yes yes yes Y 28 0.13 0.15 X 20 0.14 0.13 2 0.204 0.197 1.433 yes yes yes Y 23 0.13 0.15 X 25 0.18 0.15 3 2.29 2.09 2.307 no no no Y 18 0.09 0.1

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05.

64 Average annual

River Strumica -Novo Selo 14,00 Qav.ann Qav.ann(ten year) Qav.ann(1961-2003) 12,00 Linear (Qav.ann)

10,00

8,00 ) s / y = -0,0702x + 142,91 m3 R2 = 0,1498 Q( 6,00

4,00

2,00

0,00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.38. Annual values of average discharges for the river Strumica at Novo Selo

Table 7.44. Analysis of homogeneity of average annual discharges for the river Strumica at Novo Selo for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho accepted St. Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 4.49 2.85 1 1.454 1.612 2.43 yes yes no Y 28 3.3 1.83 X 20 4.37 2.58 2 1.767 1.764 1.925 yes yes yes Y 23 3.15 1.86 X 25 4.51 2.4 3 3.123 2.859 2.307 no no no Y 18 2.61 1.58

Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05.

65 Maximal annual

river Strumica-Novo Selo 300.00 Qmax.ann Qmax.av(ten year) Qmax.av(1961-2003) 250.00 Linear (Qmax.ann)

200.00 ) s / 150.00

Q(m3 y = -1.8363x + 3712.2 R2 = 0.1397

100.00

50.00

0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Figure 7.39. Annual values of maximal discharges for the river Strumica at Novo Selo

Table 7.45. Analysis of homogeneity of maximal annual discharges for the river Strumica at Novo Selo for α=0.05 level of significance Hypothesis Ho accepted St. Student Fisher No Variable Observation Mean z test Deviation T test F test z Student Fisher test T test F test X 15 86.68 64.38 1 1.069 1.066 1.15 yes yes yes Y 28 65.17 60.02 X 20 83.57 58.9 2 1.089 1.057 1.172 yes yes yes Y 23 63.19 63.77 X 25 95.3 68.64 3 3.481 3.05 4.962 no no no Y 18 41.24 30.81 Null hypothesis Ho: there are no statistically significant modifications in examined samples, is accepted at the level of significance of the test "=0.05.

Conclusions From the performed analyses of the homogeneity, a general conclusion can be made that the size of the series is not large, actually there are no sufficient data for making clear conclusions for the impact of the climate change on the discharges. But, the results of the performed analyses are defining good directions for accepting or rejecting the null hypothesis for homogeneity of the data, and with that making statement that there are or there are no significant modifications in examined samples during the analyzed period. In those cases where it is concluded that the series are homogeneous, it can be stated that there are no significant modifications of the mean values and of the variances during the time and that all data belong to the same population. For the cases where it is concluded that series is not homogeneous, the reasons for not homogeneity is analyzed, considering also the climate change. For all series which is concluded that are not homogeneous, no forecast should be made, because the assessment would be not accurate. Only data from homogeneous series can be used to perform future forecast. The results from the analyses together with the conclusions are presented bellow: 66 a) For the hydrological station Radusa on river Vardar, the series of minimal annual discharges is homogeneous, the series of average annual discharges is not homogeneous, while the series of maximal annual discharges is homogeneous. Beside the anthropogenic impact of Hydropower plant Vrutok, there is a need to analyze the physical factors in the river basin which led to not homogeneity of the average annual discharges. Also, the homogeneity of the precipitations and temperatures in the river basin should be analyzed in order to define the reason for non homogeneous data. b) For the hydrological station Skopje on river Vardar, the series of minimal annual discharges is homogeneous, the series of average annual discharges is not homogeneous and the series of the maximal annual discharges is also not homogeneous. One of the reasons for series not to be homogeneous could be the size (not large) of the series. Training of the river bed through Skopje and construction of flood protection embankments could be one of the reasons for non homogeneity of the maximal discharges. Physical factors which could have impact on the water regime in the river basin should be analyzed. In order to discover the reason for not homogenous series of the average annual discharges, other references were consulted which analyzed the homogeneity of precipitations and temperatures. According Trajanovska, Kaevski and oth., 2004, analysis of the monthly, seasonal and annual air temperatures and precipitations for meteorological station Skopje was performed for the period 1926–2003. It was concluded that wet periods are recorded in the interval 1930–1945 and in 1965–1980. Reduction of precipitations is recorded from 1986, while from 2000 on, their increase is recorded. Analysis on series of seasonal precipitations for this stations showed that the series are homogeneous. Analysis of the temperatures showed that there are cyclic periods (there are few cold and warm periods and they almost cycled). Cold periods are from 1930 until 1945 and from 1965 until 1982, with the coldest year 1940 and 1994 as the warmest year in 20th century. The analysis on series of seasonal temperatures showed homogeneous series of winter temperatures and not homogenous series of temperatures in spring, summer and autumn. Even there is a statement for not homogeneous series of the meteorological data, clear conclusion for the climate change can not be made. Beside the analyses of the meteorological factors, physical factors in the river basin which provoke not homogeneous series of the average annual discharges must be analyzed. c) For the hydrological station Demir Kapija on river Vardar, the series of minimal annual discharges is not homogeneous, the series of average annual discharges is homogeneous, as well as the series of maximal annual discharges. d) For the hydrological station Makedonski Brod on river Treska, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are homogeneous. e) For the hydrological station Boskov Most on river Radika, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are homogeneous. f) For the hydrological station Dolenci on river Crna, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are not homogeneous. g) For the hydrological station Skocivir on river Crna, the series of minimal annual discharges is not homogeneous, the series of average annual discharges is homogeneous, and the series of maximal annual discharges is not homogeneous. In order to investigate the reasons for the not homogeneous series at hydrological stations Skocivir and Dolenci on river Crna, the results from the analyses of homogeneity of the series of precipitations and temperatures for meteorological station Bitola performed by Trajanovska and oth. 2004, are interpreted. According to this research paper, oscillations of the precipitations at the station Bitola are identical with the oscillations for station Skopje. The series of seasonal precipitations are homogeneous, except for the precipitations in autumn. Oscillations of the series of temperatures are identical with those for station Skopje, with homogeneous series of winter and spring temperatures and not homogeneous series of summer and autumn temperatures. There is a need for detailed analysis of the anthropogenic impact on the river basin, and of the physical factors which cause the not homogeneity of the series.

67 h) For the hydrological station Katlanovska Banja on river Pcinja, the series of minimal annual discharges is homogeneous, the series of average annual discharges is not homogeneous, as well as the series of maximal annual discharges. The same conclusion about the need for analyzing the physical factors which cause the not homogeneous series of average and maximal annual discharges should be made. i) For the hydrological station Oci Pale on river Bregalnica, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are homogeneous. j) For the hydrological station Stip on river Bregalnica, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are homogeneous. k) For the hydrological station Susevo on river Strumica, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are not homogeneous. Also, for this station is necessary to analyze all physical factors and homogeneity of the series of temperatures and precipitations. Additionally, the quality of data from the aspect of possible error and duration of recording data should be analyzed. l) For the hydrological station Novo Selo on river Strumica, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are homogeneous.

7.3.6.2. Analysis of the Available Water Resources From the analyzed data of the discharges, characteristical years are defined for each hydrological station for the period 1961-2003, and are presented in the Table No. 7.46:

Table No.7.46. Characteristical years for the period 1961-2003 Average Minimal Maximal The The Hydrological discharges discharges discharges Average most No. River driest station Qsr Qsmin Qsmax year humid year (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) year 1 Radusa Vardar 23,48 8,814 38,0 1997 1990 1963 2 Skopje Vardar 57,68 22,747 122,9 2003 1990 1963 3 Demir Kapija Vardar 123,85 43,638 334,6 1987 1990 1963 4 Mak. Brod Treska 10,79 4,510 25,8 1964 1990 1963 5 Katlanovska B. Pcinja 11,43 3,172 22,6 1991 1993 1963 6 Oci Pale Bregalnica 4,72 1,083 15,6 1984 2001 1963 7 Stip Bregalnica 10,76 1,791 34,9 1983 2001 1963 8 Dolenci Crna 2,43 0,947 5,6 1976 2001 1963 9 Skocivir Crna 19,57 5,061 57,9 1972 2001 1963 10 Susevo Strumica 1,56 0,283 3,5 1982 1993 1963 11 Novo Selo Strumica 3,72 0,519 11,8 1998 1993 1963 12 Boskov Most Radika 17,52 7,566 41,3 1984 1990 1963

From the hydrograms and the graphical presentations of the average monthly multiannual discharges can be concluded the following: For the river Vardar, river Treska and river Pcinja, minimal values of average monthly multiannual discharges are recorded in August, while maximal values in April and in May. For river Bregalnica, minimal average monthly multiannual discharges are recorded in August and maximal in April. For river Strumica at hydrological station Susevo, minimal average monthly multiannual discharges are recorded in August and maximal in April, and similar, for the same river, but at hydrological station Novo Selo, minimal average monthly multiannual discharges are recorded in August and maximal in February. For river Crna, minimal average monthly multiannual discharges are noted in August and in September, while maximal discharges in March and April. For river Radika, minimal discharge values are recorded in August and maximal in May.

68 Runoff coefficient for the river basin area is presented for each hydrological station in the Table No. 7.47:

Table No. 7.47. Runoff coefficient for the river basins Area Disch Aver. Hydrolo- of river Water Volume Water volume Module arge precip No. gical River basin from water coeff. Po station A Qsr Wo yield Cm (mm) (km2) (m3/s) (m3) 1 Radusa Vardar 1.450 23,5 740.860.075 851 1.233.374.833 0,601 2 Skopje Vardar 4.650 57,7 1.820.086.378 788 3.665.514.400 0,497 13.820.825.63 3 Demir K. Vardar 21.350 123,9 3.908.544.384 647 0,283 4 4 Mak. Brod Treska 886 10,8 340.591.743 767 679.266.667 0,501 Katlanovs. 5 Pcinja 2.749 11,4 360.579.396 522 1.458.756.713 0,247 B. Bregalnic 6 Oci Pale 845,6 4,7 148.903.314 611 516.661.600 0,288 a Bregalnic 7 Stip 2.940 10,8 339.426.613 566 1.665.020.000 0,204 a 8 Dolenci Crna 216,5 2,4 76.756.683 767 165.983.333 0,462 9 Skocivir Crna 3.975 19,6 617.737.801 755 3.003.045.367 0,206 10 Susevo Strumica 468 1,6 49.333.074 548 256.357.400 0,192 11 Novo Selo Strumica 1.401 3,7 117.252.352 572 801.482.913 0,146 12 Boskov M. Radika 750,9 17,5 552.737.228 1.015 762.163.500 0,725

For the hydrological station Radusa on river Vardar, the linear trends of the annual values of the series of minimal annual discharges, the series of average annual discharges and the series of maximal annual discharges are descending. For the series of minimal annual discharges it is noted that maximal amount of the decade discharges is for the decade 1961-1970, and minimal for the decade 1991-2000. From 2000 on, the minimal discharges are increasing. Analysis of the hydrogram of the average annual discharges led to the same conclusions as for the minimal annual discharges. Analysis of the hydrogram of the maximal annual discharges shows that the maximal decade discharge is recorded for the decade 1971-1980 as a result of appearance of flood with low probability. For the hydrological station Skopje on river Vardar, the linear trends of the annual values of the series of minimal annual discharges, the series of average annual discharges and the series of maximal annual discharges are as well descending. Minimal amounts for decade discharge is recorded for the decade 1991-2000 for the series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges. For the hydrological station Demir Kapija on river Vardar, descending linear trends of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are defined, identical as those for the hydrological stations Radusa and Skopje. Minimal amounts of average decade discharges are recorded for the decade 1991- 2000. For the series of average annual discharges it is noted that the decade discharges are constantly descending until the decade 1991-2000, when the minimums are recorded, and after that the discharges are increasing. Percentages of reduction of the decade discharges in relation of the previous decade are as follows: 12% for 1971-1980, 9% for 1981-1990, 18% for 1991-2000 and increase of 1,3% for 2000-2003. Reduction of the decade discharges for 1991-2000 compared with 1971-1980 is 34%, while for 2000-2003 compared with 1961-1970 is 33,4%. Analysis of the hydrogram of the hydrological station Makedonski Brod on river Treska also shows descending linear trends of the annual values of the series of minimal annual discharges, series of average annual discharges and the series of maximal annual discharges. Differently from river Vardar, minimal decade discharges of this river are recorded for the period 2000-2003 for the series of minimal and average annual discharges and for the period 1991-2000 for the series of maximal annual discharges. For the series of average annual discharges percentages of reduction of the decade discharges in relation with previous decade are: 13% for 1961-1970, 11% for 1981-1990, 3% for 69 1991-2000 and 11% for 2000-2003. Reduction of the decade discharges for 2000-2003 compared with 1961-1970 is almost 34%. For the hydrological station Boskov Most on river Radika, the linear trends for all three series, for minimal annual, average annual and maximal annual discharges are descending. Also, for all three series, minimal values of the decade discharges are recorded in the period 2000-2003. For the series of average annual discharges, reduction percentages of the decade discharges in relation with the previous decade are: 6% for 1971-1980, 21% for 1981-1990, increase of 2,5% for 1991-2000 and reduction of 14% for 2000-2003, while reduction of the decade discharges for 2000-2003 compared with 1961-1970 is 35,5%. For the hydrological station Dolenci on river Crna, the linear trends for the series of minimal annual, average annual and maximal annual discharges are descending. Minimal values for decade discharges are recorded for the period 2000-2003, for all three series, minimal, average and maximal annual discharges. The regime of the minimal discharges of river Crna at hydrological station Skocivir is with increasing linear trend, while the linear trends of annual amounts of series of average and maximal annual discharges are descending. Minimal discharges for decade are recorded for the period 2000-2003 for the series of average and maximal annual discharges. For the series of minimal annual discharges maximal value of decade discharge is recorded in the period 2000-2003, and minimal for the decade 1971-1980. For the series of average and maximal annual discharges, maximal decade discharge is recorded for decade 1961-1970 and minimal for the period 2000-2003. For the series of the minimal discharges for river Pcinja at hydrological station Katlanovska Banja, there is a light increasing linear trend. Minimal decade discharge for the series of minimal annual discharges is recorded for the decade 1961-1970, and maximal for the period 2000-2003. The series of average and maximal annual discharges have descending linear trends. Maximal values of the decade discharge for both series are recorded for the decade 1961-1970, while the minimal for the period 2000-2003. The series of minimal discharges for river Bregalnica at hydrological station Oci Pale has light increasing linear trend. The series of average annual discharges is characterized with descending linear trend. For this series maximal value of decade discharge is recorded for the decade 1961-1970, and minimal for the decade 1981-1990. Percentages of reduction of the decade discharges in relation of the previous decade are: 23,5% for 1971-1980, 21% for 1981-1990, increase of 4% for 1991-2000 and increase of 4% for 2000-2003. Reduction of the decade discharges for 2000-2003 compared with 1961-1970 is 36%. The series of maximal annual discharges has very light increasing linear trend. Decade discharge has the maximal value for the decade 1971-1980. The situation with the discharges recorded for the same river, but at hydrological station Stip, located downstream is completely different. For all three series (minimal, average and maximal) of the annual discharges, linear descending trends are recorded. For the series of minimal discharges, maximal values are recorded for the decade 1971-1980, while minimal for the period 2000-2003. For the series of the average annual discharges maximal decade discharge is recorded in the period 1961-1970, and minimal value for the period 2000-2003. The percentages of reduction of decade discharges in relation with the previous decade are: 14,4% for 1971-1980, 21% for 1981-1990, 13% for 1991-2000 and 28,7% for 2000-2003. Reduction of the discharge for the period 2000-2003, compared with decade 1961-1970 is 58%. The series of maximal annual discharges has descending linear trend, with maximal value of the decade discharge for the decade 1961-1970. For river Strumica at hydrological station Susevo, for all three series linear descending trends of the annual values are defined. Also, there is significant dispersion around the mean value for the series of minimal and maximal annual discharges. For the series of the minimal annual discharges it is typical that in some years, during summer period, river has very low water discharges or even there is no water at all (in 1978, 1993, and 1994). Maximal value of the decade discharge for the series of minimal discharges is recorded in the period 1971-1980 and minimal for the period 2000-2003. For the series of average and maximal annual discharges, maximal values are recorded for decade 1961- 1970, and minimal value for decade 1991-2000.

70 For river Strumica at hydrological station Novo Selo, light descending trend of the minimal annual discharges is defined, more expressed also descending trend for average annual discharges and strongly expressed descending trend for the series of the maximal annual discharges. For the series of the average annual discharges which is homogeneous, it can be concluded that the maximal value of the decade discharge is recorded for 1971-1980 and minimal for the decade 1991-2000. For the average annual discharges, percentages of reduction of the decade discharges in relation with the previous decade are: 29% for 1971-1980, increase of 4% for 1981-1990, reduction of 31% for 1991- 2000 and increase of 11% for 2000-2003. Reduction of the discharge for the period 2000-2003 compared with the decade 1961-1970 is 43,7%. On the Fig. No.7.40, No.7.41 and No.7.42 the minimal, average and maximal annual water levels of the lakes Dojran, Prespa and Ohrid are presented. Oscillations of the Ohrid Lake water level are rather small and they are not as a result of the climate change but, controlled outflow of the river Crni Drim from the lake. For the lakes Dojran and Prespa, the oscillations of the water levels are much higher. There was extreme drop-down of the water levels of both lakes started in 1986 and lasted until 2002. From 2003 towards, there is increase of the water levels. Oscillations of the water levels happen as a result of the anthropogenic impact and climate change. Oscillations of the water level of Dojran Lake were relatively balanced until 1986, when drastic drop- down of the water level started and lasted until 2002, causing ecological disaster. The reasons for this reduction of the water in the lake were of anthropogenic character (over use of the water for irrigation on the neighbouring country side) and of natural character (the dry and hot period which occurred at the end of '80 of the last century). But, the construction of the hydro system "Dojransko Ezero" in 2002, which fills the lake with groundwater and improved hydrological situation (increased precipitation and lower temperatures) contributed to constant increase of the water level of Dojran Lake. Specifics of Prespa Lake are that water from this lake runs into Ohrid Lake through underground flows and appears at Ohrid Lake coast and bottom of the lake. There were average oscillations of the water level in the period 1961-1986, from when the water level started drastically to drop-down. Absolute annual minimum of the water level of -445 cm, occurred in 2002. This extreme reduction of the water level is certainly resulting of the climate change, but of anthropogenic impact also, due to use of the water resources.

Dojran Lake-Nov Dojran

400 Hav.ann Hmin.ann 300 Hmax.ann average water level Linear (Hav.ann) 200

100 m) (c l e v

e 0 l r te Wa -100

-200

-300

-400 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year) Fig. No.7.40 Annual values of minimal, average and maximal water level for Dojran Lake at Dojran

71 Prespa Lake-Stenje

500 Hav.ann

400 Hmin.ann Hmax.ann average water level 300 Linear (Hav.ann)

200

) 100

0 level (cm ter a

W -100

-200

-300

-400

-500 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Fig. No.7.41 Annual values of minimal, average and maximal water level for Prespa Lake at Stenje

Ohrid Lake-Ohrid

200

Hav.ann 150 Hmin.ann Hmax.ann average water level 100 Linear (Hav.ann)

50 ) m c (

evel 0 r l e

Wat -50

-100

-150

-200 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Fig. No.7.42. Annual values of minimal, average and maximal water level for Ohrid Lake at Ohrid On the Fig. No.7.43, the outflow water quantities from the Republic of Macedonia for the period 1961-2003 are presented. It should be emphasized that in the calculations of the water quantities which outflow from the country, data for the hydrological station Spilje are used which is controlled outflow. From the diagram it can be stated that the oscillations of the available water resources are much higher in the last 40 years. The linear trend of the water quantities which outflow from Macedonia is descending, with a drop of around 70 million m3 on annual level. Minimal water quantities which 72 outflow from the country are recorded for the period 1987-1995. After 2001, there is a light increase of the water quantities. A decrease of precipitation in the last twenty years in comparison with the period 1961-90 at annual level in Macedonia is recorded especially in 1988-1990, 1992-1994, 2000 and 2001. In the last ten years, the average annual temperature is continuously higher than the long- range average. Concerning the reduction of the precipitations it can be concluded that reduction of the water quantities which outflow from the country is not only due to increased use of the water resources, but primarily due to the changed climate conditions.

Outflow form Republic of Macedonia 16000

Qav.ann average (1961-2003) 14000 Linear (Qav.ann)

12000 y = -70,025x + 144676 R2 = 0,1808

10000 ) nn /a 8000 ill. m3 m ( V 6000

4000

2000

0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Time (year)

Fig. No.7.43. Outflow water from the Republic of Macedonia (million m3 annually)

7.3.7. Conclusions • Generally it can be concluded that there is reduction of the annual values of the average discharges for all river basins in the Republic of Macedonia. The same trend is defined for the minimal and maximal annual discharges for the whole territory of Macedonia. It was also noted that reduction of the average annual discharges is the most expressed for the river Bregalnica at hydrological station Stip and for the river Strumica at hydrological station Novo Selo, i.e. in the central and south-eastern part of the country. • The series of average annual discharges for river Bregalnica at hydrological station Oci Pale is characterized with descending linear trend. For this series maximal value of decade discharge is recorded for the decade 1961-1970, and minimal for the decade 1981-1990. Reduction of the decade discharges for 2000-2003 compared with 1961-1970 is 36%. The situation with the average annual discharges recorded for the same river at the downstream hydrological station Stip is showing more drastic reduction. Reduction of the discharge for the period 2000-2003, compared with decade 1961-1970 is 58%. • For river Strumica at hydrological station Susevo, linear descending trends of the annual values are defined for series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges. It is noticed that for the series of the minimal annual discharges it is typical that in some years, during summer period, river has very low water discharges or even there is no water at all. For the same river at the downstream hydrological station Novo Selo, light descending trend of the minimal annual discharges is defined, more expressed also descending trend for average annual discharges and strongly expressed descending trend for the series of the maximal annual discharges. For the series of the average annual discharges which is homogeneous, it

73 can be concluded that percentages of reduction of the decade discharges for the period 2000- 2003 compared with the decade 1961-1970 is 43,7%. • Due to shortage of data related to historical occurrence of flash floods, their hydrograms and transported sediment, the effect of non-source pollution on surface water was not analyzed. Also, this lack of data was constraint for analyzing the floods as extreme hydrological events. • From the analysis of the minimal, average and maximal annual water levels of the lakes Dojran, Prespa and Ohrid it is concluded that oscillations of the Ohrid Lake water level are rather small due to the controlled outflow of the river Crni Drim from the lake. Oscillations of the water levels for the other two lakes: Dojran and Prespa are showing significant variations. It is very interesting that there was an extreme drop-down of the water levels of both lakes that started almost at the same time (in 1986) and had almost the same duration (until 2002). From 2003 towards, there is an increase of the water levels on the both lakes. These oscillations of the water levels happened as a result of the anthropogenic impact and change of the climate. • The climate change and anthropogenic impacts for the Prespa Lake should be analysed in the frame of the ongoing Integrated Ecosystem Management in the Transboundary Prespa Park Region, the full size GEF project. • Analysis of the outflow water quantities from the Republic of Macedonia showed that there is a linear descending trend of the water quantities which outflow from Macedonia, with a drop of around 70 million m3 on annual level. Minimal values of water quantities which outflow from the country are recorded for the period 1987-1995, and after 2001, there is a light increase of the water quantities. A decrease of precipitation in the last twenty years in comparison with the period 1961-90 at annual level in Macedonia is recorded, especially in 1988-1990, 1992-1994, 2000 and 2001. In the last ten years the average annual temperature is continuously higher than the long-range average. Concerning the reduction of the precipitations it can be concluded that reduction of the water quantities which outflow from the country is not only due to increased use of the water resources (antrophogenic impact), but primarily due to the changed climate conditions.

7.4 Climate Change Impact on Social, Economic and Health Conditions

7.4.1 Current condition

7.4.1.1 Social Conditions In the group of the social conditions possibly exposed to the climate changes impact on the water resources, the most important is the population as a number of users which should be supplied with drinking water. According to the last Census of the population, households and dwellings in the Republic of Macedonia, which was performed in 2002, total population is 2.022.547. In the Table No.7.48. the population is presented by the major river basins: Table 7.48. Population by the major river basins No. River basin Population 1. Vardar 1.723.102 2. Strumica 120.869 3. Crn Drim 178.576 Total 2.022.547 Source: Census 2002 According to the Census in 1994, average density of the population was 76 inhabitants/per km2. The last Census in 2002, has the data of 78,7 inhabitants/per km2. Referring to the three river basins, population density is as follows: -River Vardar Basin: 83,4 inhabitants/per km2 -River Strumica Basin: 73,3 inhabitants/per km2 -River Crn Drim Basin: 53,2 inhabitants/per km2 74 The number of households (including the institutional one) is 564.296, while the number of dwellings (all types of living quarters) is 697.529. According to the chapter 6.2. Drinking water supply, total water demands for the population and tourists in the country are 218.269.079 m3/year. This figure is calculated using the number of population and tourists and the adequate water supply norm, but is not the real consumed water. The real consumed water is less due to mainly rural population which is not supplied or supplied, but do not use the planned quantity of water. In order to make conclusions about the climate change impact on the current drinking water supply, the findings of the vulnerability of the water resources should be used, as well as the available literature and guidelines. The Vulnerability Assessment showed that the available water resources (flow discharges) for the period 1961-2003 are reduced showing linear descending trend of the minimal, average and maximal series of annual discharges, which in the same time decreases the availability of the resources for drinking water supply. The springs and surface water present 75% of the total resources for water supply, which is a significant percentage. Shortage of drinking water especially in the summer period appeared in the past in Macedonia, particularly when the water resource is surface or spring water. Usually, in this period when the air temperatures are close to 400C and last for more than 10 days, the water supply demands increase rapidly. For exp., at the end of June 2006, due to extremely high temperatures in Skopje, the water norm was more than 600 l/capita/day. The Water Supply Utility of Skopje, made an appeal to the citizens not to use the water for watering the gardens, washing the yards or cars, but only for drinking and sanitary needs, otherwise, the utility had to undertake measures of restricted water supply in different areas of the city. Using the data for the daily gross water supply norms of Skopje and the average daily temperatures (www.vodovod-skopje.com.mk and www.meteo.gov.mk), the dependency of water supply norm and temperature was analyzed. The results are presented on the Figure 7.44. It is very obvious that there is an increasing trend of water supply norms with increase of the air temperature. Even for temperatures higher than 200C, the dependence is almost linear. For the temperatures between 00C up to 100C, there is no high variation of the water supply norm of 525 l/day/capita.

Water supply norm for Skopje - air temperatures

700 ) a it p

a 650 c /

y 2 a y = 0,1412x - 0,9884x + 521,71

l/d R2 = 0,6572

( 600 m nor 550 upply s r

e 500 t Wa

450 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 air temperature 0C ( ) Series1

Poly. (Series1)

Figure 7.44. Gross water supply norms for Skopje – air temperatures 75 In situation of climate change conditions, with higher temperatures and longer duration of hot periods, it is obvious that water supply demands would significantly increase. The prognostic value of increase could be around 30%. It is very important to mention that this water supply norm is gross and includes the water losses, while the effective water supply norm is 50-60% of the gross norm. Due to this fact, the role of adaptation measures is given in the part for Future Conditions. According to the Chapter 6 Water Resources, part 6.1.8 Water demand changes, from the web-site of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, "Future climate change could influence municipal and industrial water demands. Municipal demand depends on climate to a certain extent, especially for garden, lawn and recreational field watering, but rates of use are highly dependant on water resources regulations and local use education." This is very true for Macedonia, because the population is used to watering the gardens and yards with the same water for drinking. There are attempts with increasing of the public awareness of the citizens, to increase the efficient use of the water for drinking. Finally, it can be concluded that the climate change, especially extreme events (high temperatures and droughts) have impact on the drinking water demands, reflected in their increase. In the lack of precise data (both, availability of the water resources in climate change conditions and really consumed drinking water) for the territory of the country it is very difficult to quantify the impact with high accuracy.

7.4.1.2. Economic conditions The group of the economic conditions affected by the climate change impact on the water resources includes the industry, through the water supply for processing purposes, agriculture through the irrigation, energy production by hydropower and damages on the economy provoked by floods and droughts. The selection of these most important economic elements was done following the analysis of the sectors in chapter 2 from the Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. Industry The data for the consumed water by the industry is presented above, in the chapter 6.2.2. The information is abstracted from the Statistical yearbooks 1995-2003. There is no other source, where more precise data could be obtained. It was a problem in the past, but also is now, how to collect data from the industry. Under conditions of uncertain data on the consumed or needed water quantities, it is very difficult to make conclusions about the impact of the climate changes on the industry water supply. Generally, those industries which are supplied by surface water, could suffer from the reduced available surface water, especially in the more sensitive areas. But, there is no record of any announced shortage of water for the industry, or endangered process due to shortage of water. According to the Chapter 6 Water Resources, part 6.1.8 Water demand changes, from the web-site of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, "Industrial use for processing purposes is relatively insensitive to climate change; it is conditioned by technologies and modes of use. Demands for cooling water would be affected by a warmer climate because increased water temperatures will reduce the efficiency of cooling, perhaps necessitating increased source water abstraction to meet cooling requirements." But, as this is not the case in our country (technological water for cooling is within the recirculation water supply systems), it can be concluded that climate change has no significant impact on the quantities of consumed water by the industry. Agriculture The favourable climate and pedological conditions in the Republic of Macedonia create the basis for intensive agricultural production of specific highly cost effective crops. Due to uneven distribution of precipitation in time and space, irrigation is necessary condition for successful agricultural production. The current irrigation demands of 899.335.000 m3/year presented in the chapter 6.1. are calculated under assumption that all possible areas for irrigation covering 126.617 ha are irrigated. Following the analysis in the same chapter, it is easy to conclude that the real consumption of water for irrigation is much less, due to the actual smaller irrigated areas. 76 Considering that irrigation is the major user of the total water demands in the country (about 40%), the impact of the climate changes must be analyzed in more details. Climate change has double impact on the irrigation. On one hand, the main source for irrigation water is the surface water, and in the Vulnerability Assessment, it was concluded that there is a reduction in the available surface water, especially in the more vulnerable regions. The major irrigation systems are located precisely in the same, vulnerable regions, which mean that they are directly affected by the reduced available resources. On the other hand, due to the increased air temperatures and reduced precipitation (the main parameters for defining of effective rain), the effective rain is also reduced. According of the analysis, the effective rain is reduced, which directly affects the irrigation water requirements. Increased air temperatures induce increase of crop water requirements (increased evapotranspiration). The final result of climate change impact is the increased irrigation water requirements. In this sector, it is easy to conclude the negative impact of the climate change on the irrigation, actually on agriculture. If there are less irrigated areas, or less intensive crops, then the yields and income from agriculture are less. For the country like Macedonia, where 15-20% of the GDP is from the agriculture and food processing industry, production of food is an important economic segment. Unfortunately, there is no economic study available for the quantification of the negative impact of the climate change on the agricultural production. The study which should be prepared in close future, would analyze the possible reduction of income due to reduced available water for irrigation and increased irrigation norm. Energy production Regarding the hydropower for energy production, it should be stated that the major Hydropower Plants are located in the western part of the country (Globocica, Spilje, Raven, Vrutok, Vrben, Matka), which is less vulnerable region. Only the hydropower plant Tikves belongs to the central part of Macedonia. Water resources in the western part are not significantly reduced and no significant losses in energy production occurred due the reduced discharges. The same comment is made for the future period, as this part of the country is less affected by the climate change compared with other parts of the country. Damages due to floods and droughts According to the area of the region affected by the flood, there are regional floods and local (flash) floods. Regional floods are caused by the biggest rivers in Macedonia: Vardar, Crna Reka, Strumica, Treska, Pcinja, Lepenec and Bregalnica. The main river Vardar is typical torrential river. Relation low: medium: high water is 1: 6,6: 90. During the floods in 1962, river Vardar flooded 12.735 ha, river Crna Reka 25.000 ha and Strumica 8.000 ha. During the floods in 1979, 45.860 ha were flooded all together. Total damage costs were estimated on USD 193,8 million (Skoklevski, 2003). Flash floods are typical for Macedonia, due to natural conditions, bad land cover especially low forest closeness, rare but very intensive short time rainfalls, unbalanced water regime. The most damaging flash floods occurred in 1979- river Pena, 1958, 1979 –river Luda Mara, 1995- Negotinska Reka, Anska Reka, Bregalnica, May-June 2004-river Luda Mara, river Suva, river Mrzenska and river Turija, and in March 2005 river Vardar upstream. Small torrents (with river basin less then 5 km2) are 62% of the total number of torrents. Although their river basin is small, the pick of the discharge achieve more then 30 m3/s, and that results in a lot of sterile sediment on the flooded areas. After analyzing the extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts) it could be concluded that both events appear more often than in the past, as a result of the climate change. The damages provoked by the floods costs millions of USD, and directly affected already fragile agriculture and local economies. The biggest damages are in the rural areas where households and cultivated areas are flooded. The farmers have no funds for assurance of their property and crops, and they are regularly suffering. There is a state contribution for mitigation of the damages of the farmers, but it is not covering the real damage. 77 Very similar is the situation with the damages provoked by droughts. The farmers are suffering losing the yields and income from the agricultural production. According to the Report on the Capacity Self- Assessment within the Thematic Area of Land Degradation and Desertification, drought can cause 50- 60% decrease in crop production in non-irrigated areas. The agricultural drought can produce water stress in plants and if the length of the drought is long enough, crop yields decrease. Annual crops are damaged first and then perennial crops. In Macedonia, a prolonged drought occurred during 1993, damaging the most of the crops, as shown in the Table 7.49. During 1993, 16 communities applied for refunds for the damages to crop production caused by the severe drought. The biggest yield reduction appeared in the communities of Stip, Sv. Nikole and Kocani, with up to 70% reduction, compared with the averages from the previous three years. The total value of the yield reduction caused by drought was MKD 2.669.451.000 (or about EURO 80 million). The loss of this income represented at least 5% (and up to 21,2%) of the gross income of each community. On a countrywide basis, the damage caused by this drought in decreasing agricultural production amounted to 7,6% of the total national income.

Table 7.49. The yield reduction from the expected yields in Gevgelija and in Kavadarci in 1993 Expected yield in Gevgelija Kavadarci Crop kg/ha % of reduction of yield % of reduction of yield Wheat 2.744 44,4 50 Barley 2.698 42,0 50 Maize 3.000 30,0 70 Alfalfa 21.112 71,4 30 Tomato 23.500 42,5 30 Tobacco 1.300 44,8 70 Grape 12.332 47,5 50 Orchards 9.760 34,2 50

The problems caused by droughts are much more serious for the productivity of perennial crops (orchards and grape). For the past decade, Republic of Macedonia has been exposed to prolonged droughts (ten successive dry years from 1985 to 1997). Due to the severe drought and other climate changes (higher temperatures and frequent late spring frosts) more than 3.700 ha of fruit orchards became desiccated. As a result of these droughts, the fruit growing area decreased from 23.900 ha in 1985 to 16.500 ha in 1997. This damage is essentially irrecoverable, and a large amount of time and money should be invested to rebuild fruit production.

7.4.1.3 Health This chapter concerns water born diseases, while the comments about other impact of the climate change on the human health, will be given in a separate report. According to NEAP 2, the Typhoid and Para-Typhoid is not anymore an epidemiological problem in the Republic of Macedonia (According to the data obtained from the Republic Health Institute), because there have been registered only sporadic cases during the period 1990-2000. The average registered cases for this decade were 4.1 cases per year. The Para-Typhoid was registered by 1 case per year. According to the same document, the Dysentery in the period 1990-2000 has been registered with average 258 cases per year and still presents a significant epidemiological problem, with higher registered number in 1998 (388 cases). The average morbidity rate of dysentery for the period 1990- 2000 is 11,7/100.000. Regarding Enterecolitis, for the period 1990-2000 average 6853 cases were registered per year and average morbidity rate of 310,3/100.000, which means that Enterocolitis is still a significant epidemiological problem in the Republic of Macedonia. It is also important to emphasize that all these cases can not be linked with water pollution, because there is no detailed investigation about the source of the disease. From the defined trend of communicable diseases morbidity rate in the

78 Republic of Macedonia it can be concluded that the trend is decreasing for Dysentery, Hepatatis "A" and Hepatitis "Undiagnosed" and only trend for Enterocolitis is increasing for the period 1997-2000. Considering this situation in the climate change conditions, it can be concluded that eventual shortage of water or increased pollution of the water resources, there is a possibility for increasing the number of cases of the water-born diseases.

7.4.2. Future conditions The socio-economic circumstances of the world on which climate change will have its impact will be very different from today's circumstances. The future sectors are likely to differ not only in size but also in structure. Due to this, the impacts on and adaptation of the future sectors may well differ quantitatively and qualitatively from the impacts and adaptations of the current sectors. According to the IPCC Technical Guidelines and Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies, it is important to have an idea of how populations and economy will develop over the 21st century and how this will affect the impacts of and adaptation to climate change. This is commonly done using scenarios in three steps. As a first step, the crucial elements of the sectors that are likely to change should be identified. After that, a scenario of how these crucial elements might change over the next decades needs to be developed or, preferably, obtained. As a third step, the impact and adaptation analysis must be combined with the socio- economic scenario. Transferring these recommendations in the case of the Republic of Macedonia, the situation is as follows: a) Step 1: the crucial elements in socio-economic sectors in relation with the water resources are: population grow and water supply of population, irrigation as a component of agriculture and flood and droughts damages. b) Step 2: there is no developed scenarios for the above mentioned elements, except predicted population and water demands in 2020 (National Spatial Plan of Macedonia). This time horizon is too close to nowadays and not sufficiently prognostic, because the climate change impact is analyzed for 2050 and 2100. In the same handbook it is also recommended that all scenarios for different sectors should be developed by one team in order to have co-ordinate scenarios. c) In the lack of scenarios, there is no possibility to perform step 3. As a general conclusion, it can be stated that in the described circumstances and lack of prognostic scenarios, the only possibility for analysis is experts' assessment and opinion. In this phase of the analysis, it is very important to mention the role of the adaptation measures. In parallel of the getting knowledge about the climate change impact, in the FNC, adaptation measures were proposed for mitigation of the adverse impact. This measures should help that expected impact will be mitigated and consequences not to be so severe. In the analysis, it can be described the assumed amounts of the available water resources on one hand, and the increased water demands for different sectors, but, it should not be forgotten that the applied adaptation measures in meantime, will help to keep the demands as low as possible, or new constructed dam would allow redistribution of the even reduced water resources in time and space in a more efficient way. Or, if the example of the drinking water is used, the prognostic situation presented in many documents is continual increase of the water supply norm and water demands. But, due to the increased public awareness or improved technical condition of the water supply systems, the water supply norm is successfully kept on standard level for a longer period. In order to have at least some indicators and comments for the coming period, an analysis is performed for the time horizon 2020. The water demands are taken from ERWRM and NEAP 2, and later modified accordingly following the conclusions for climate change impacts.

79 Water Supply of Population and Tourists According to ERWRM, there will be 2.228.000 inhabitants in the Republic of Macedonia in 2020. The total water demands for water supply of the population and tourists are estimated on 348.261.300 m3 per a year. The applied water supply norms for calculation of the water demands are rather high, compared with the norms in Western European countries. On other hand, high water losses in the convey structures and in domestic water supply systems and use of drinking water for watering of green areas and gardens, and washing the public areas, are reality in our country. The current status of water supply structural system justify the high norms, but the approach of constant increase of water supply norms, should be reconsidered as soon as possible. Under assumption that the available water resources would be reduced in 2020 and water supply norms are additionally increased due to the climate change impact, it can be expected that the population would be affected, mostly with shortage of water (lower level of quality service) or in the systems where adaptation measures are applied with increased water tariffs. At the moment, it is very difficult to quantify either the possible shortage of water or possible increase in the water tariffs. The analysis of the water supply norm for Skopje in 2006 showed increased value of the norm for 30- 40% from the planned one, especially in hot periods. That means that it can be expected that the water supply quantities would increase in the conditions of climate change. The role of the adaptation measures must be mentioned in this part. The net water supply norm in Skopje is about 50-60% of the gross water supply norm, which means that only half of the produced water is efficiently used. Therefore, it is necessary to plan adaptation measures which would reduce the water losses. If these measures are implemented and give results until 2050 and further, it is very likely that there would be no increase of the water quantities used for water supply of population, or if there would be, it would be with smaller percentage of increase. Industry water supply According to ERWRM, it is not planned to have significant increase of the water demand for industry. Therefore, the above conclusion can be repeated that climate change should not have significant impact on the quantities of consumed water by the industry in 2020. Agriculture According to ERWRM, until 2020, there should be 139.710 ha covered with new irrigation systems, which together with the existing 126.617 ha should have need for irrigation water of 1.806.711.000 m3 per a year. This document was elaborated in 1998, and if a new assessment is made now for the new areas under irrigation, it is very unlikely that the number of almost 140.000 ha covered with new irrigation systems is feasible and achievable for the coming 15 years. Still, rehabilitation of the existing irrigation systems has the priority. The process of fund raising for new irrigation systems is very long and difficult. The information coming from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management is saying that there are no recent plans for new irrigation systems to be built in near future. Regardless of the size of the areas covered with irrigation systems, the climate change will affect the availability of the water resources used for irrigation and will increase the need for water for the crops, as a result of reduced effective rain and increased evapotranspiration. This directly affects the irrigation norm. The economic side of the climate change impact on agriculture expressed through the reduced yields and income in a situation when there is no sufficient irrigation on one hand, and increased costs of the farmers as a result of the increased irrigation norm on other hand, is not analyzed since now. But, taking under consideration the information given in the Table No.6.2. for yields with and without irrigation, it can be easily concluded that the income loss would be significant for the farmers.

80 Energy production The comment about the energy production from the hydropower for the time horizon 2020 will be the same as for the current situation. The water resources in the western part would not be significantly reduced and no losses in energy production would occur due the reduced discharges. Until 2020, there would be another Hydropower Plant operating and producing energy (Matka II). Damages due to floods and droughts In the description of the current status, it was clearly stated that the damages due to floods and droughts can be millions of Euros, which could affected the national economy. The fact that the climate change provokes extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts) more often with higher intensity and frequency, should be a warning signal for the responsible authorities. There is no separate study for analyzing the size of the damages and economic costs, but following the experiences, urgent measures should be planned and undertaken. Water balance of the Republic of Macedonia under climate change conditions Water balance of the Republic of Macedonia has been performed in the Expert Report on Water Resources Management, 1998. The aim of the balance was to define the shortages and surpluses of water resources in Macedonia for two horizons: 1996 and 2020. According to the document, for the 2020 horizon and average dry year, shortage of water resources is evident for the following regions: Strumica, Upper and Middle Brigalnica and Pelagonija. It is expected that the climate change will increase the gap between available water resourced and demands and broaden the areas with water shortage. The lack of socio-economic scenario was a main constraint for estimating water balance in Vulnerability Assessment.

7.5. Climate Change Impact on Surface Water Quality

Current Condition Generally, current condition of the water quality for the most of the surface water is not satisfying the legal requirements. Main polluter is the urban wastewater, which is discharged directly into the rivers and streams without treatment, then wastewater from chemical, food processing, ferrous, leather industry as well as from animal farms. The largest cities in the Republic of Macedonia, like Skopje, Bitola, Prilep, Strumica, Tetovo, Gostivar, Veles, and Stip have no wastewater treatment plant. Industries also do not treat the wastewater and especially dangerous, beside the organic pollution from food processing industry and slaughterhouses, is the pollution from heavy metals: Ch, Fe, Cd, Pb and Zn. There are only five operating wastewater treatment plants in the Republic of Macedonia. Three of them are protecting the natural lakes: Ohrid, Prespa and Dojran. The other ones are in Makedonski Brod and Kumanovo. According to the monitoring data for the water quality of river Vardar, there is a trend of decreasing of pollution which is shown for river Vardar, but unfortunately, this trend is a result of decreased intensity of industry's activities and not due to undertaken measures for protection of the surface water. The condition of the surface water quality is better in areas with low population density and where is no industry. Diffuse Sources The diffuse sources of water pollution are the nitrate fertilizers (chemical and organic) coming from agriculture. These diffuse sources cannot be precisely located due to the large area of contamination and are diffusely spread over space and time. The situation of the diffuse pollution sources in the Republic of Macedonia is unknown and not analyzed. There is common thinking that there are no problems with the nitrate pollution, especially not from agricultural production. This opinion comes due to lower annual sums of precipitation and 81 low quantities of applied fertilizer compared to the countries where this problem is raised. Process of irrigation increases the danger of infiltrating of nitrates into lower soil layers and eventually reaching the groundwater level. Due to this it is necessary to investigate the contamination level of the ground waters with nitrates. According to Iljovski and oth. (1995) in the river Vardar, at location Basino Selo, near Veles, for five years of monitoring the following nitrate average quantities are recorded: NH4 - 0,81 mg/l; NO2 - 0,81 mg/l as N and NO3 - 1,26 mg/l as N. According to this results river Vardar is highly polluted with nitrates of the form NH4 and NO2, which maximum allowed concentrations for III and IV class are 0,5 mg/l. There is no data on the nitrate source in the river Vardar, actually which are the sources of pollution. It is suggested that the nitrite source is from the punctual sources (municipality and industry waste water from Skopje), because according to Cvetkovski (1994) there are no nitrates in the ground waters of Skopje valley. In some of the reservoirs for drinking water supply, the process of eutrophication as a result of accelerated grow of algae and higher forms of plant life is present. This process enriches the water with nitrogen compounds, which disturbs the water quality in the reservoir. According to the available data, this process is recorded in the reservoir “Strezevo” near Bitola. The water quality of this reservoir is very important because the water is used for drinking and for food processing industry. The experts of several fields currently are working on a project, which should improve the water quality in the reservoirs for drinking water supply. The main mean for improving the water quality is growing of fish, which eat algae, and other matters, which endanger the water quality. The results up to now are satisfactory, but for more regular data more time is needed. Climate Change Impact on the Water Quality Climate change can affect the water quality aspect in three manners: a) reduced hydrological resources may leave less dilution flow in the river, leading to degraded water quality or increased investments in wastewater treatment, b) higher temperatures reduce dissolved oxygen content in water bodies and c) in response to climate change, water uses, especially those for agriculture, may increase the concentration of pollution being released to the rivers. All together, pose a treat to the water quality. In order to analyze the climate change impact on the water quality, the data from the monitoring of the water quality of river Vardar at sample point Skopje and Demir Kapija are processed. The decision to analyze river Vardar at these sample points is made upon the conclusion that central and south part of the country belong to sensitive regions and upon already poor water quality at both sample points mainly due to discharge of untreated urban waste water. Also, data for these two sample points are rather reliable. The parameters of interest are as follows: -water temperature; -dissolved oxygen; -Nitrogen Ammonia; -Nitrogen Nitrite; -Nitrogen Nitrate and -Phosphate. The attempt was made to make a functional dependence of the listed parameters with the river discharges, actually to analyze the impact of the reduced discharge (as a result of the climate change) on the water quality. The last four parameters belong to the group of nutrients, which are mainly coming from untreated urban wastewater and fertilizers. For all these 6 parameters historical diagrams are produced in relation with the discharges. Also, the dependences between the parameters and the discharges are analyzed and the trend lines are defined. Finally, the pollution load per a year from four nutrients is estimated. The analyses are performed for monitoring stations on river Vardar, Taor-Skopje and Demir Kapija, for the period 1999-2005. Water temperature - Discharge Water temperature is one of the key ecological factors for aquatic environment. High or too low temperatures can destroy the aquatic life, and can disturb the balance in the water environment. 82 Historical diagram of the discharges and water temperatures for the monitoring station Taor-Skopje is given on the following Figure 7.45.:

Discharge and temperature during time Monitoring station Taor-Skopje 250 30 ) c

25 C) e

200 0 /s 3 20 e ( m 150 r u t e ( 15 a

rg 100 er a 10 p m sch 50

5 e t Di 0 0

9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 9 0 0 0 0 9 00 00 0 0 0 0 .1 .199 .199 .200 .2 .200 .2 .200 .200 .200 .200 .2 .200 .2 .200 .200 .200 .200 .2 .200 .2 .200 .200 8 2 6 1 3 2 0 05 08 11 05 .0 11 .0 05 08 11 03 0 09 0 06 09 12 .0 09 .1 04 07 .1 8. 6. 5. 9. 2. 3. 5. 20. 1 16. 1 15 1 20 15. 2 13. 1 19. 2 21. 16. 2 18. 30 23. 20 11. 15. 17 Dis charge time temperatures

Fig. 7.45. Historical diagram of discharges and water temperatures for Taor-Skopje

It is obvious, that in spring and summer, when the discharges are bellow 50 m3/sec, the water temperatures are rather high (between 15 and 250C). This situation was expected, considering the high air temperatures in Skopje in spring and summer period. When the discharges are low, then the water temperatures fast go up, warming from the air. The functional dependence of the discharges and water temperatures and the trend line are presented on the following Fig. No. 7.46.:

Water Tempreture - Discharge Monitoring station Taor-Skopje

30.0 e r 25.0

atu 20.0 er p C) 15.0 0 m ( 10.0 y = -0.048x + 15.882 te r R2 = 0.1327

te 5.0 a

w 0.0 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 discharge (m3/sec)

Fig. 7.46. Dependence water temperature – discharge for Taor-Skopje

The trend line is with linear descending equation, which means that the water temperatures are increasing with decreasing of the discharges of river Vardar at monitoring station Taor - Skopje. It is evident that the high water temperatures are recorded for discharges in the range of 20-60 m3/sec. For the monitoring station Demir Kapija, two diagrams are presented, similar as for the monitoring station Taor-Skopje:

83 Discharge and temperature during time Monitoring station Demir Kapija 450 30,0

) 400 c 25,0 e C)

350 0 /s 3

300 20,0 ( m e 250 r u e ( 15,0

200 at rg er a 150 10,0 p

100 m sch e

5,0 t

Di 50 0 0,0 99 99 00 00 00 01 01 01 02 02 02 03 03 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09...... 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Discharge time temperatures

Fig. 7.47. Historical diagram of discharges and water temperatures for Demir Kapija

The small town of Demir Kapija is located in the central part of Macedonia, and it is famous for the extremely high air temperature during the spring and summer period, but also in other periods of the year, the average air temperatures are higher then the average temperature on national level. That has influence on the water temperature, which are higher than the temperatures of Vardar in Skopje. On the Fig. 7.47 it is very obvious that high water temperatures matches with low discharges, and opposite, when the discharges are high, then the temperatures are low. The trend line of the functional dependence of the water temperatures and discharges is presented on the Fig. No.7.48.:

Water Tempreture - Discharge Monitoring station Demir Kapija

30,0 e r 25,0 u

at 20,0 er p C) 15,0 0 ( m e 10,0 t r e

t 5,0 a

w 0,0 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0 450,0 discharge (m3/sec) y = -0,0381x + 18,766 R2 = 0,2175

Fig. 7.48. Dependence water temperature – discharge for Demir Kapija

Dissolved oxygen – Discharge Dissolved oxygen in water is another important ecological factor, which can be also a limitation factor for survival of the aquatic life. The contents of the dissolved oxygen are reciprocal to the water temperature. In the following Table 7.50., the content of dissolved oxygen is presented in 1 l fresh water, depending on the water temperature: Table 7.50. Water temperature (0C) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Dissolved oxygen (mg/l) 14,16 12,37 10,92 9,76 8,84 8,11 7,53 Source: Water Management Systems, Gjorgjevic

84 This reciprocal trend is confirmed for the both monitoring stations Taor-Skopje and Demir Kapija, as presented on the Fig. No.7.49 and 7.50.

Dissolved Oxygen - Temperatures Monitoring station Taor-Skopje

20,00

n e 15,00 yg ) 2 x o O

d 10,00 l/g ve l m ( o 5,00 ss i D 0,00 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 Temperatures (0C) y = -0,3799x + 12,139 R2 = 0,352

Fig.7.49. Dependence dissolved Oxygen – temperatures for Taor-Skopje

Dissolved Oxygen - Temperatures Monitoring station Demir Kapija

14,00

en 12,00 g y ) 10,00 2 x o O 8,00 d

l/g 6,00 ve l m ( o 4,00 y = -0,061x + 10,462 ss i 2,00 2

D R = 0,0644 0,00 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 Temperatures (0C)

Fig 7.50. Dependence dissolved Oxygen – temperatures for Demir Kapija

For the monitoring station Demir Kapija, the values of the dissolved Oxygen are higher than at Taor- Skopje, due to less organic pollution. At Taor-Skopje, organic pollution is much higher because the urban wastewater is discharged in the river Vardar without treatment. High organic pollution consumes the Oxygen in the water for decomposing, resulting in low values of dissolved Oxygen, recorded at Taor-Skopje. Therefore, the trend line is more descending at Taor-Skopje than in Demir Kapija. Also, it was analyzed the dependence of the dissolved Oxygen on discharges as historical data and trend lines under conditions of polluted water, which are different from the uncontaminated conditions. The results are presented on the following figures:

85 Discharge and dissolved oxygen during time Monitoring station Taor-Skopje 250 18,00 16,00

200 n

14,00 e sec) / g 3 ) 12,00 y 2 m 150 10,00 e ( /l O d ox g 8,00 e rg

100 v m a

6,00 ( ol h s

4,00 s sc 50 i di

D 2,00 0 0,00

9 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 99 99 9 00 00 00 0 0 0 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 05 05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 19 19 .19 .20 .20 20 .2 .2 .20 .20 .2 .2 .2 .2 2 2 .2 20 2 2 2 20 20 5. 8. 1 5 8 1. 2 5 8 1 3 6 9 1 6. 9. 2 3. 9. 2. 4. 7. 0. .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 6 6 5 5 0 5 9 3 2. 9 3 1 8. 5 20 18 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 16 25 1 30 23 20 11 1 17 Dis charge time dissolved oxygen

Fig 7.51. Historical diagram of discharges and dissolved Oxygen for Taor Skopje

From the historical diagram can be concluded that the values of the discharges are followed by the values of the dissolved Oxygen. The trend line defined for the dependence of the dissolved Oxygen on discharges for Taor-Skopje, confirms the previous statement.

Dissolved Oxygen - Discharge Monitoring station Taor-Skopje y = -0,0006x2 + 0,1592x + 0,7398 R2 = 0,5405

14,00

en 12,00 g y ) 10,00 2 x o O 8,00

l/g 6,00 ved l m

( 4,00

sso 2,00 i

D 0,00 0,00 50,00 100,00 150,00 Discharge (m3/se c)

Fig. 7.52. Dependence of dissolved Oxygen – Discharges for monitoring station Taor-Skopje

The trend line shows that increase in discharges is followed by increase of dissolved Oxygen concentrations. In the following two figures No 7.53 and 7.54., the same analyses are presented, but for the monitoring station Demir Kapija:

86 Discharge and dissolved oxygen during time Monitoring station Demir Kapija 450 14,00

400 12,00 n

350 e sec) / g

3 10,00 ) 300 y 2 m 250 8,00 e ( /l O d ox g 200 e rg 6,00 v m a (

150 ol h

4,00 s

100 s sc i

2,00 di

D 50 0 0,00 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09.

18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. Di18. s charge time dissolved oxygen

Fig. 7.53. Historical diagram of discharges and dissolved Oxygen for Demir Kapija

Dissolved Oxygen - Discharge Monitoring station Demir Kapija

14,00

en 12,00

) 10,00 2 xyg o O 8,00 g / 6,00 ved l

(ml 4,00 sso

i 2,00 D 0,00 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0 450,0

3 y = 0,0008x + 9,4748 Discharge (m /se c) R2 = 0,0015

Fig. 7.54. Dependence of dissolved Oxygen – Discharges for monitoring station Demir Kapija

The same conclusions can be made for the monitoring station Demir Kapija as for the monitoring station Taor-Skopje.

Nitrogen Ammonia – Discharges In the group of nutrients, the first analyzed parameter is Nitrogen Ammonia. This is very dangerous component, which even in small quantities like 0,2 mg/l can kill young salmon fish. The historical diagram of the discharge and Nitrogen Ammonia for the monitoring station Taor-Skopje is presented on Fig. 7.55.:

87 Discharge and Nitrogen Ammonia during time Monitoring station Taor-Skopje 250 6,000 ) c a

5,000 i e 200 n /s o 3

4,000 ) m m 150 m /l N e (

3,000 A g g r

100 m en a (

2,000 g h o c r t s 50 1,000 i N Di 0 0,000

9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 00 00 00 00 00 0 0 0 00 00 00 00 0 0 0 19 .1 .1 20 .2 20 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 20 .2 20 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 200 .2 5. 1 5. 8 1. 2 5 8 1 3 9 1. 6 9. 2 3 9 2 4 7. 0 .0 .08 1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 0 .06 0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 0 .0 1 0 8 6. 6 5 5 0 2. 9 3. 1 6 5 8 1. 5 7. 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 15 29 13 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 30 23 20 1 1 1 Discharge time Nitrogen Ammonia

Fig. 7.55. Historical diagram for discharges and Nitrogen Ammonia for Taor-Skopje

The historical diagram shows that smaller discharges are accompanied by higher concentrations of Nitrogen Ammonia, and opposite. It is very clear that smaller discharges are more polluted by this component, due to the almost constant discharges of untreated wastewater from Skopje in the river Vardar. As the discharges are lower, the dilution ability is reduced, and the concentrations of the Nitrogen ammonia show higher values. The trend line of dependence of the Nitrogen Ammonia on the discharges confirms the above statement. Nitrogen Ammonia - Discharge Monitoring station Taor-Skopje

6,000 )

N 5,000 g / l m

( 4,000 a ni o 3,000 m m 2,000 n A y = 51,714x-1,1103 2 oge

r R = 0,4409

t 1,000 i N 0,000 0,00 50,00 100,00 150,00 200,00 250,00

Discharge (m3/sec)

Fig. 7.56. Dependence of Nitrogen Ammonia – Discharges for monitoring station Taor-Skopje The trend line shows high dependence of the Nitrogen Ammonia for values bellow 2 mg/l N and discharges less than 50 m3/sec. It is very obvious that the concentrations of this parameter are increasing with reducing of the discharges. The pollution of the water of river Vardar with organic matters at monitoring station Demir Kapija is generally lower as it was stated above, and it is confirmed once again with the concentration of Nitrogen Ammonia. The historical diagram and the trend line of the dependence of this parameter on discharge for the monitoring station Demir Kapija are shown on the Fig. 7.57 and Fig. 7.58:

88 Discharge and Nitrogen Ammonia during time Monitoring station Demir Kapija 450 0,900 ) 400 0,800 a 350 0,700 sec / 3

300 0,600 ) moni m N m (

250 0,500 l e A 200 0,400 g/ n arg 150 0,300 (m oge r

100 0,200 t sch i N

Di 50 0,100 0 0,000 999 999 000 000 000 001 001 001 002 002 002 003 003 003 004 004 004 005 005 005 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ...... 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. D18. ischarge time Nitrogen Ammonia

Fig. 7.57. Historical diagram of discharges and Nitrogen Ammonia for Demir Kapija

The historical diagram shows that higher discharges are accompanied by lower concentration of Nitrogen Ammonia, and opposite, if the discharges are lower, then the concentrations of this parameter are higher. Compared in absolute values between monitoring station in Taor-Skopje and Demir Kapija, it is evident higher pollution at the first monitoring station.

Nitrogen Ammonia - Discharge Monitoring station Demir Kapija

0,900 y = 3E-07x2 - 0,0004x + 0,1998 0,800 2 ) R = 0,0124 N 0,700 l/g m

( 0,600

onia 0,500 m

m 0,400

n A 0,300 oge r

t 0,200 i N 0,100

0,000 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0 450,0

Discharge (m3/sec)

Fig. 7.58. Dependence of Nitrogen Ammonia – Discharges for monitoring station Demir Kapija

Due to the higher discharges and lower concentrations of Nitrogen Ammonia, there are more scatter values, but it is still evident the decreasing trend of the parameter with increasing of the discharges, even not so expressed as for the monitoring station Taor-Skopje. Nitrogen Nitrite – Discharge The second analyzed parameter in the group of nutrients is the Nitrogen Nitrite. The same analyses as for the previous parameter were performed for both monitoring stations Taor-Skopje and Demir Kapija. The results are presented in diagram form. First, the historical series of the recorded discharges and Nitrogen Nitrite concentration are presented on Fig. No.7.59.:

89 Discharge and Nitrogen Nitrite during time Monitoring station Taor-Skopje 250 0,900

l

0,800 / g

ec) 200

0,700 m s ( /

3

0,600 e t m 150 i r (

0,500 t i e 0,400 N)

100 n N arg 0,300

0,200 oge sch 50 tr i

Di 0,100 N 0 0,000

00 02 05 1999 1999 1999 20 2000 .2000 2001 2001 2001 2001 20 2002 2002 2003 2003 .2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 20 2005 .2005 05. 08. .11. 05. 08. 11 02. 05. 08. 11. 03. 06. .09. 01. 06. 09 12. 03. 09. .12. 04. 07. 10 20. 18. 16 16. 15. 15. 20. 15. 29. 13. 12. 19. 23 21. 16. 25. 18. 30. 23. 20 11. 15. 17. Dis charge time Nitrogen Nitrite

Fig.7.59. Historical diagram of discharges and Nitrogen Nitrite for Taor-Skopje From the historical diagram it can be concluded that there is high dependence of the concentrations of the Nitrogen Nitrite and the discharges during time. When the discharges are high, then the concentration values of the analyzed parameter is lower, while in the period of the low discharges, the concentrations are much higher. The situation can be explained in the same manner as for the Nitrogen Ammonia. Due to heavy organic pollution at Taor-Skopje, the dilution ability of the river, depends on the discharges. In the periods of low discharges, dilution ability is much lower, which reflects on the nutrients concentration. The high dependence between Nitrogen Nitrite on discharges is presented on the Fig. 7.60:

Nitrogen Nitrite - Discharge Monitoring station Taor-Skopje

0,900

0,800 ) 0,700 l/g N

m 0,600 ( e

it 0,500 r t i 0,400 N n 0,300 oge -1,1317 r

t y = 5,2515x i 0,200 2 N R = 0,5818 0,100

0,000 0,00 50,00 100,00 150,00 200,00 250,00

Dis char ge (m 3/sec)

Fig. 7.60. Dependence of Nitrogen Nitrite - Discharge for Taor-Skopje The trend line has descending form, which confirms the statement above, that with increasing of the discharges at Taor-Skopje, the concentrations of Nitrogen Nitrite are decreasing. The results of the analyses performed for the monitoring station Demir Kapija regarding Nitrogen Nitrite are presented on the Fig. 7.61 and Fig. 7.62:

90 Discharge and Nitrogen Nitrite during time Monitoring station Demir Kapija 450 1,400

400 l

1,200 g/ 350 sec) / (m

3 1,000

300 e t m i r

( 0,800 250 t i e 200 0,600 N) n N arg 150 0,400

100 oge r sch t

0,200 i

Di 50 N 0 0,000 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09. 01. 05. 09...... 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Discharge time Nitrogen Nitrite

Fig. 7.61. Historical diagram for discharges and Nitrogen Nitrite for Demir Kapija

Nitrogen Nitrite - Discharge Monitoring station Demir Kapija

1,200

) 1,000 N

g / l 0,800 (m

e t i

tr 0,600 i N n e

g 0,400

o -0,4294

tr y = 0,2389x i 2 N R = 0,1073 0,200

0,000 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0 450,0

Dis char ge (m 3/sec)

Fig. 7.62. Dependence of Nitrogen Nitrite – Discharge for Demir Kapija

The same conclusions as for the monitoring station Taor-Skopje can be made, with comment that the trend line for Demir Kapija is not so strongly expressed due to higher discharges and lower values of concentration of the analyzed parameter. Nitrogen Nitrate – Discharge The results of the analyses for dependence of concentration of the Nitrogen Nitrate on discharges for both monitoring stations, Taor-Skopje and Demir Kapija are not showing correlation as for other two nutrient parameters. The reason may be in the rather scattered recorded values of the parameter. Due to this, only the historical diagrams are pesented on Fig.7.63. and Fig. 7.64.

91 Discharge and Nitrogen Nitrate during time Monitoring station Taor-Skopje 250 3,500

l ) c 3,000 g/

e 200 (m /s 2,500 3 e t m

150 a

( 2,000 tr i e N) 100 1,500 n N arg 1,000 oge sch 50 tr

0,500 i Di N 0 0,000

9 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 9 99 99 0 0 00 01 0 0 01 0 02 02 0 03 03 0 0 0 04 0 0 05 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .1 .19 .19 .2 .2 .20 .20 .2 .2 .20 .2 .20 .20 .2 .20 .20 .2 .2 .2 .20 .2 .2 .20 5 8 1 5 8 1 2 5 8 1 3 9 1 6 9 2 3 9 2 4 7 0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .06 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 6 6 0 3 9 3 8 0 7 20 18 1 1 15 15 2 15 29 1 12 1 2 21 16 25 1 30 23 2 11 15 1 Discharge time Nitrogen Nitrate

Fig. 7.63. Historical diagram of discharges and Nitrogen Nitrate for Taor-Skopje

Discharge and Nitrogen Nitrate during time Monitoring station Demir Kapija 450 7,000

l 400 6,000

sec) 350 / (mg/

3 5,000 e

300 t m a r ( 4,000

250 t i e 200 3,000 N) n N arg 150 2,000

100 oge sch

1,000 tr i

Di 50 0 0,000 N

99 9 00 0 00 1 1 1 2 02 2 03 3 03 4 04 4 5 05 5 99 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0 00 00 00 19 .1 20 .2 20 .2 .2 .2 .2 20 .2 20 .2 20 .2 2 .2 .2 20 .2 05. 9 01. 5 09. 1 05 9 1 05. 9 01. 5 09. 1 05. 9 01 05. 9 . .0 . .0 . .0 8. .0 .0 . .0 . .0 . .0 . .0 8. . .0 18 18 18 18 18 18 1 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 1 18 18 Discharge time Nitrogen Nitrate

Fig, 7.64. Historical diagram of discharges and Nitrogen Nitrate for Demir Kapija

The main conclusion is that from the available data there is no possibility to define any dependence or trend line, valid for river Vardar. In order to make more precise analyses, the historical data must for the longer period, and to consider all other factors which influence the pollution with this particular parameter. Phosphate – Discharge The last analyzed parameter is Phosphate. The same analyses were made for both monitoring stations Taor-Skopje and Demir Kapija and the results are presented in usual form. On the Fig. 7.65., the historical diagram of discharges and Phosphate for Taor- Skopje is presented:

92 Discharge and Phosphate during time Monitoring station Taor-Skopje 250 4,000 3,500 ) 200 l

sec) 3,000 / 3

m 2,500 150 (mg/ ( te e 2,000 100 pha arg 1,500 1,000 hos sch 50 P

Di 0,500 0 0,000

9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 99 99 00 00 00 00 00 00 .199 .1 .1 .20 .200 .200 .2 .2 .20 .200 .200 .2 .20 .20 .200 .2 .2 .20 20 .200 .2 .20 .20 5 8 1 5 8 1 2 5 8 1 3 6 9 1 6 9 2 3 9. 2 4 7 0 0 0 1 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 .0 0 0 1 .0 .0 1 0 .0 .1 8. 6. 0. 5. 9. 5. 8. 1. 20. 1 1 16 15. 15. 2 1 29 13. 12. 1 23 21 16. 2 1 30 23 20. 1 15 17 Discharge time Phosphate

Fig. 7.65. Historical diagram of discharges and Phosphate for Taor-Skopje

According to the historical diagram, the concentrations of Phosphate are in reciprocal ratio with the discharges. If the discharges are higher, then the concentration of this parameter are lower, and opposite, when the discharges are lower, the concentration of Phosphate is higher. The same conclusion is confirmed with the trend line, presented on Fig. No.7.66.:

Phosphate - Discharge Monitoring station Taor-Skopje

4,000

3,500

3,000 g) l/ 2,500 m ( e t

a 2,000 ph 1,500 os h

P -0,742 1,000 y = 4,3417x R2 = 0,1785 0,500

0,000 0,00 50,00 100,00 150,00 200,00 250,00

Discharge (m3/sec)

Fig. 7.66. Dependence Phosphate – Discharge for Taor-Skopje

The trend line has descending shape, which means that the concentrations of Phosphate are decreasing with increasing of the discharges. For the monitoring station Demir Kapija, the historical diagram shows similar situation to the one in Taor. In order to understand the level of concentration, it must be mentioned that upstream of Demir Kapija, there is a factory for artificial phosphate fertilizer, which was under operation until 2003. The higher values of Phosphate concentration in Demir Kapija are due to this fertilizer factory. At Taor, only 4 values are recorded over 1 mg/l Phosphate, while at Demir Kapija about 1/3 of the records show higher values than 1 mg/l Phosphate.

93 Discharge and Phosphate during time Monitoring station Demir Kapija 450 7,000

) 400 c

6,000 ) l e 350 g/ /s

3 5,000

300 m m ( ( 250 4,000 e t e 200 3,000 a ph arg 150 2,000 os

100 h sch

1,000 P

Di 50 0 0,000

9 9 0 0 0 1 01 1 02 2 02 3 3 03 4 04 4 05 5 05 99 99 00 00 00 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 .1 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Disc harge time Phosphate

Fig. 7.67. Historical diagram of discharges and Phosphate for Demir Kapija

The trend line is presented on the Fig. 7.68.:

Phosphate - Discharge Monitoring station Demir Kapija

7,000

6,000

) 5,000 g / l m

( 4,000 e t a

ph 3,000 os

h -0,4687

P 2,000 y = 5,2682x R2 = 0,0968 1,000

0,000 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0 450,0

Dis char ge (m 3/sec)

Fig. 7.68. Dependence Phosphate – Discharges for Demir Kapija

The trend line has descending shape, which means that the concentrations of Phosphate are decreasing with increasing of the discharges. Due to the rather scattered values of the parameter, the coefficient R2 is also rather low. But, still the reciprocal dependence of the Phosphate concentrations and discharges is evident. Emission of Pollution from Nutrients Using the dependence of the nutrients on discharges, and average annual discharges for the period 1999 to 2003, the emission of pollution is estimated. The results are presented in the Table 7.50 and 7.51.

94 Table 7.50. Emission of Pollution for Taor-Skopje EMS EMS EMS EMS year Qav NH4 NO2 NO3 PO4 NH4 NO2 NO3 PO4 (m3/sec) (kg/s) (kg/s) (kg/s) (kg/s) (t/year) (t/year) (t/year) (t/year) 1999 68,3 0,03624 0,003617 0,09062 0,0127864 1.143 114 2.858 403 2000 55,3 0,03884 0,003747 0,07242 0,0121085 1.225 118 2.284 382 2001 30,7 0,04376 0,003993 0,03798 0,0104028 1.380 126 1.198 328 2002 41,3 0,04164 0,003887 0,05282 0,0112301 1.313 123 1.666 354 2003 58,9 0,03812 0,003711 0,07746 0,0123072 1.202 117 2.443 388

Table7.51. Emission of Pollution for Demir Kapija EMS EMS EMS EMS year Qav NH4 NO2 NO3 PO4 NH4 NO2 NO3 PO4 (m3/sec) (kg/s) (kg/s) (kg/s) (kg/s) (t/year) (t/year) (t/year) (t/year) 1999 135,5 0,022092 0,004855 0,26835 0,0719408 697 153 8.463 2.269 2000 103,8 0,018028 0,004538 0,21446 0,0624427 569 143 6.763 1.969 2001 53,2 0,010291 0,004032 0,12844 0,0437777 325 127 4.050 1.381 2002 104,2 0,018083 0,004542 0,21514 0,0625704 570 143 6.785 1.973 2003 143,2 0,022988 0,004932 0,28144 0,0740847 725 156 8.875 2.336

Conclusions After the performed analyses, the following conclusion can be made: 1. The trend line of the dependence of water temperatures on discharges is with linear descending equation, which means that the water temperatures are increasing with decreasing of the discharges. This conclusion was expected, considering appearance of low discharges in River Vardar in hot periods (late spring, summer and early autumn). 2. The temperature is very important ecological factor and every increase means treat to the aquatic balance and aquatic species. In the climate change conditions, reduced discharges with increased water temperatures would have negative impact on aquatic environment. 3. Already known fact that temperature is reducing the quantities of dissolved oxygen is proved in the case of River Vardar. For the monitoring station Demir Kapija, the values of the dissolved Oxygen are higher than at Taor-Skopje, due to less organic pollution. At Taor- Skopje, organic pollution is much higher because the urban wastewater are discharged in the river Vardar without treatment. High organic pollution consumes the Oxygen in the water for decomposing, resulting in low values of dissolved Oxygen, recorded at Taor-Skopje. Therefore, the trend line of the dependence of dissolved Oxygen and temperatures is more descending at Taor-Skopje than in Demir Kapija. 4. The trend line of the dependency of the dissolved oxygen on discharges under conditions of polluted waters shows that increase in discharges is followed by increase of dissolved Oxygen concentrations. Reduced discharges with lower content of dissolved Oxygen could endanger the existence of the aquatic life. 5. The historical diagram shows that higher discharges are accompanied by lower concentration of Nitrogen Ammonia, and opposite, if the discharges are lower, then the concentrations of this parameter are higher. The trend line shows high dependence of the Nitrogen Ammonia for values bellow 2 mg/l N and discharges less than 50 m3/sec. It is very obvious that the

95 concentrations of this parameter are increasing with reducing of the discharges, which in climate change conditions could endanger the aquatic environment. 6. There is a high dependence of the concentrations of the Nitrogen Nitrite and the discharges during time. When the discharges are high, then the concentration values of the analyzed parameter is lower, while in the period of the low discharges, the concentrations are much higher. Due to have organic pollution at Taor-Skopje, the dilution ability of the river, depends on the discharges. In the periods of low discharges, dilution ability is much lower, which reflects on the nutrients concentration. The trend line has descending form, which confirms that with increasing of the discharges at river Vardar the concentrations of Nitrogen Nitrite are decreasing. 7. The results of the analyses for dependence of concentration of the Nitrogen Nitrate on discharges are not showing correlation as for other two nutrient parameters. Longer historical data and consideration of all polluting factors should be analyzed for obtaining more reliable conclusions. 8. The trend line of the dependence Phosphate – Discharges has descending shape, which means that the concentrations of Phosphate are decreasing with increasing of the discharges. 9. Performed analyses confirmed that climate change conditions have negative impact on the water quality, regarding all three aspects mentioned at the beginning of this chapter: a) reduced hydrological resources leave less dilution flow in the river, leading to degraded water quality b) higher temperatures reduce dissolved oxygen content in water bodies and c) in response to climate change, water uses, especially those for agriculture, may increase the concentration of pollution being released to the rivers. All together, pose a treat to the water quality. 10. From the economic aspect, deteriorated water quality in the climate change conditions increases the costs for treatment of the wastewater. 11. The defined dependence of the: temperatures, dissolved Oxygen, Nitrogen Ammonia and Nitrogen Nitrite on discharges are more expressed for the lower discharges. The negative impact of these parameters would affect more the water quality in the conditions of the climate change.

96 8. Main Findings Because the most important part of the Vulnerability assessment and adaptation for water resources sector is chapter 7: Vulnerability Assessment, the following main findings are abstracted from it: • The average monthly and average annual air temperatures in Macedonia for the period from 1961 to 2005 (time series of 45 years) are analyzed for the main meteorological stations: Skopje-Petrovec, Strumica, Bitola, Ohrid, Stip, Lazaropole, Nov Dojran, Gevgelija and Popova Sapka. For the analyzed period, multiannual average values of the temperatures are from 14,30C for Nov Dojran and 140C for Gevgelija in the southern part of the country, 12,80C for Stip and 12,30C for Skopje in the central part of the country, and 4,80C for Popova Sapka and -0,30C for Solunska Glava in the mountain region. In the southern part of the country, the temperatures are higher, and they are decreasing as going to the north. Maximal values of the absolute annual amplitudes for the temperatures are the highest for Skopje, Strumica and Bitola. For the whole territory of the country, the coldest month is January, while the hottest are July and August. • Monthly and annual sums of precipitation are analyzed with a length of the series for all analyzed meteorological stations analogue to the length of the air temperatures series. Average annual sums for the analyzed period are from 463,8 mm in Stip, 498,4 mm in Skopje up to 1061,9 mm in Lazaropole. Lowest amounts of precipitations are recorded in the central parts of Macedonia: region of Gradsko, Tikves and Ovce Pole with average annual sum of precipitation in range of 400-500 mm. This area is the driest area in the Republic of Macedonia and in the Southeast part of Europe. Highest precipitations are recorded on the high mountains (about 1.000 mm) in the western part of the country. In the remaining parts of Macedonia, the annual sums of precipitations are in the range of 600-1000 mm. • The most humid years (years when the maximal sums of the annual precipitations are recorded) are: 1965 with 1.561,2 mm on station Popova Sapka, 1999 for station Skopje with 714 mm, 1967 for the stations Bitola, Veles and Resen, 1965 for stations Stip and Popova Sapka and 2002 for the station Nov Dojran. The driest years (years when the minimal sums of the annual precipitations are recorded) are: 2000 for Skopje, Nov Dojran, Lazaropole and Gevgelija, 1993 for Strumica and Ohrid, 1992 for Stip, 1990 for Popova Sapka, 1965 for Bitola, 1961 for Resen and 1977 for Solunska Glava. • For all meteorological stations except for Stip and Solunska Glava, the precipitations during the year, have higher amounts in out of vegetation period than in the vegetation period. In July and August, and sometimes in September, the sums of precipitations have the lowest amounts for all analyzed meteorological stations. • Evaporation from the free water surface is within the range from 400 to 580 mm annually for Skopje, 300 mm for Bitola and 700 mm for Gevgelija. Due to the lack of meteorological and climate data there was no possibility to estimate evaporation using empirical equations. • The effective rain for time horizon 2050 and 2100 was estimated on the base of the results of the Report on Climate Change Scenarios for Macedonia, Review of Methodology and Results. There is a drastic reduction of the effective rain, mainly due to significant increase of the mean air temperatures. The rate of reduction for 2100 varies between 27 % and 84 % for different meteorological stations. Taking into consideration the reduction of effective rain and the fact that 84 % of the available water quantities are formed on the territory of the Republic of Macedonia, it can be concluded that the high rate of reduction of effective rain is going to cause drastic reduction of the available water quantities in 2050 and 2100. • For identification of the vulnerability of the water resources for river basins in Macedonia, the analyses of the following hydrological stations: river Vardar-station Radusa, Skopje and Demir Kapija, river Treska-station Makedonski Brod, river Crna-station Dolenci and Skocivir, river Pcinja-station Katlanovska Banja, river Bregalnica-station Oci Pale and Stip and river

97 Strumica, station Susevo and Novo Selo, and river Radika at station Boskov Most, were performed. • From the performed analyses of the homogeneity, a general conclusion can be made that the size of the series is not large, actually there are no sufficient data for making clear conclusions for the impact of the climate change on the discharges. But, the results of the performed analyses are defining good directions for accepting or rejecting the null hypothesis for homogeneity of the data, and with that making statement that there are or there are no significant modifications in examined samples during the analyzed period. In those cases where it is concluded that the series are homogeneous, it can be stated that there are no significant modifications of the mean values and of the variances during the time and that all data belong to the same population. For the cases where it is concluded that series is not homogeneous, the reasons for not homogeneity is analyzed, considering also the climate change. For all series which is concluded that are not homogeneous, no forecast should be made, because the assessment would be not accurate. Data from homogeneous series can be used to perform future forecast. • The results from the analysis of homogeneity are the following: • For the hydrological station Radusa on river Vardar, the series of minimal annual discharges is homogeneous, the series of average annual discharges is not homogeneous, while the series of maximal annual discharges is homogeneous. • For the hydrological station Skopje on river Vardar, the series of minimal annual discharges is homogeneous, the series of average annual discharges is not homogeneous and the series of the maximal annual discharges is also not homogeneous. • For the hydrological station Demir Kapija on river Vardar, the series of minimal annual discharges is not homogeneous, the series of average annual discharges is homogeneous, as well as the series of maximal annual discharges. • For the hydrological station Makedonski Brod on river Treska, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are homogeneous. • For the hydrological station Boskov Most on river Radika, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are homogeneous. • For the hydrological station Dolenci on river Crna, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are not homogeneous. • For the hydrological station Skocivir on river Crna, the series of minimal annual discharges is not homogeneous, the series of average annual discharges is homogeneous, and the series of maximal annual discharges is not homogeneous. • For the hydrological station Katlanovska Banja on river Pcinja, the series of minimal annual discharges is homogeneous, the series of average annual discharges is not homogeneous, as well as the series of maximal annual discharges. • For the hydrological station Oci Pale on river Bregalnica, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are homogeneous. • For the hydrological station Stip on river Bregalnica, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are homogeneous. • For the hydrological station Susevo on river Strumica, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are not homogeneous. • For the hydrological station Novo Selo on river Strumica, all three series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are homogeneous. • Generally it can be concluded that there is reduction of the annual values of the average discharges for all river basins in the Republic of Macedonia. The same trend is defined for the minimal and maximal annual discharges for the whole territory of Macedonia. It was also noted that reduction of the average annual discharges is the most expressed for the river 98 Bregalnica at hydrological station Stip and for the river Strumica at hydrological station Novo Selo, i.e. in the central and south-eastern part of the country. • For the hydrological station Radusa on river Vardar, the linear trends of the annual values of the series of minimal annual discharges, the series of average annual discharges and the series of maximal annual discharges are descending. For the series of minimal annual discharges it is noted that maximal amount of the decade discharges is for the decade 1961-1970, and minimal for the decade 1991-2000. From 2000 on, the minimal discharges are increasing. Analysis of the hydrogram of the average annual discharges led to the same conclusions as for the minimal annual discharges. Analysis of the hydrogram of the maximal annual discharges shows that the maximal decade discharge is recorded for the decade 1971-1980 as a result of appearance of flood with low probability. • For the hydrological station Skopje on river Vardar, the linear trends of the annual values of the series of minimal annual discharges, the series of average annual discharges and the series of maximal annual discharges are as well descending. Minimal amounts for decade discharge is recorded for the decade 1991-2000 for the series of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges. • For the hydrological station Demir Kapija on river Vardar, descending linear trends of minimal, average and maximal annual discharges are defined, identical as those for the hydrological stations Radusa and Skopje. Minimal amounts of average decade discharges are recorded for the decade 1991-2000. For the series of average annual discharges it is noted that the decade discharges are constantly descending until the decade 1991-2000, when the minimums are recorded, and after that the discharges are increasing. Percentages of reduction of the decade discharges in relation of the previous decade are as follows: 12% for 1971-1980, 9% for 1981-1990, 18% for 1991-2000 and increase of 1,3% for 2000-2003. Reduction of the decade discharges for 1991-2000 compared with 1971-1980 is 34%, while for 2000-2003 compared with 1961-1970 is 33,4%. • Analysis of the hydrogram of the hydrological station Makedonski Brod on river Treska also shows descending linear trends of the annual values of the series of minimal annual discharges, series of average annual discharges and the series of maximal annual discharges. Differently from river Vardar, minimal decade discharges of this river are recorded for the period 2000-2003 for the series of minimal and average annual discharges and for the period 1991-2000 for the series of maximal annual discharges. For the series of average annual discharges percentages of reduction of the decade discharges in relation with previous decade are: 13% for 1971-1980, 11% for 1981-1990, 3% for 1991-2000 and 11% for 2000-2003. Reduction of the decade discharges for 2000-2003 compared with 1961-1970 is almost 34%. • For the hydrological station Boskov Most on river Radika, the linear trends for all three series, for minimal annual, average annual and maximal annual discharges are descending. Also, for all three series, minimal values of the decade discharges are recorded in the period 2000-2003. For the series of average annual discharges, reduction percentages of the decade discharges in relation with the previous decade are: 6% for 1971-1980, 21% for 1981-1990, increase of 2,5% for 1991-2000 and reduction of 14% for 2000-2003, while reduction of the decade discharges for 2000-2003 compared with 1961-1970 is 35,5%. • For the hydrological station Dolenci on river Crna, the linear trends for the series of minimal annual, average annual and maximal annual discharges are descending. Minimal values for decade discharges are recorded for the period 2000-2003, for all three series, minimal, average and maximal annual discharges. • The regime of the minimal discharges of river Crna at hydrological station Skocivir is with increasing linear trend, while the linear trends of annual amounts of series of average and maximal annual discharges are descending. Minimal discharges for decade are recorded for the period 2000-2003 for the series of average and maximal annual discharges. For the series of minimal annual discharges maximal value of decade discharge is recorded in the period 2000-2003, and minimal for the decade 1971-1980. For the series of average and maximal 99 annual discharges, maximal decade discharge is recorded for decade 1961-1970 and minimal for the period 2000-2003. • For the series of the minimal discharges for river Pcinja at hydrological station Katlanovska Banja, there is a light increasing linear trend. Minimal decade discharge for the series of minimal annual discharges is recorded for the decade 1961-1970, and maximal for the period 2000-2003. The series of average and maximal annual discharges have descending linear trends. Maximal values of the decade discharge for both series are recorded for the decade 1961-1970, while the minimal for the period 2000-2003. • The series of minimal discharges for river Bregalnica at hydrological station Oci Pale has light increasing linear trend. The series of average annual discharges is characterized with descending linear trend. For this series maximal value of decade discharge is recorded for the decade 1961-1970, and minimal for the decade 1981-1990. Percentages of reduction of the decade discharges in relation of the previous decade are: 23,5% for 1971-1980, 21% for 1981- 1990, increase of 4% for 1991-2000 and increase of 4% for 2000-2003. Reduction of the decade discharges for 2000-2003 compared with 1961-1970 is 36%. The series of maximal annual discharges has very light increasing linear trend. Decade discharge has the maximal value for the decade 1971-1980. • The situation with the discharges recorded for the same river, but at hydrological station Stip, located downstream is completely different. For all three series (minimal, average and maximal) of the annual discharges, linear descending trends are recorded. For the series of minimal discharges, maximal values are recorded for the decade 1971-1980, while minimal for the period 2000-2003. For the series of the average annual discharges maximal decade discharge is recorded in the period 1961-1970, and minimal value for the period 2000-2003. The percentages of reduction of decade discharges in relation with the previous decade are: 14,4% for 1971-1980, 21% for 1981-1990, 13% for 1991-2000 and 28,7% for 2000-2003. Reduction of the discharge for the period 2000-2003, compared with decade 1961-1970 is 58%. The series of maximal annual discharges has descending linear trend, with maximal value of the decade discharge for the decade 1961-1970. • For river Strumica at hydrological station Susevo, for all three series linear descending trends of the annual values are defined. Also, there is significant dispersion around the mean value for the series of minimal and maximal annual discharges. For the series of the minimal annual discharges it is typical that in some years, during summer period, river has very low water discharges or even there is no water at all (in 1978, 1993, and 1994). Maximal value of the decade discharge for the series of minimal discharges is recorded in the period 1971-1980 and minimal for the period 2000-2003. For the series of average and maximal annual discharges, maximal values are recorded for decade 1961-1970, and minimal value for decade 1991-2000. • For river Strumica at hydrological station Novo Selo, light descending trend of the minimal annual discharges is defined, more expressed also descending trend for average annual discharges and strongly expressed descending trend for the series of the maximal annual discharges. For the series of the average annual discharges which is homogeneous, it can be concluded that the maximal value of the decade discharge is recorded for 1971-1980 and minimal for the decade 1991-2000. For the average annual discharges, percentages of reduction of the decade discharges in relation with the previous decade are: 29% for 1971- 1980, increase of 4% for 1981-1990, reduction of 31% for 1991-2000 and increase of 11% for 2000-2003. Reduction of the discharge for the period 2000-2003 compared with the decade 1961-1970 is 43,7%. • Oscillations of the Ohrid Lake water level are rather small and they are not as a result of the climate change but, controlled outflow of the river Crni Drim from the lake. For the lakes Dojran and Prespa, the oscillations of the water levels are much higher. There was extreme drop-down of the water levels of both lakes which started in 1986 and lasted until 2002. From 2003 towards, there is a light increase of the water levels. Oscillations of the water levels happen as a result of the climate change and anthropogenic impact.

100 • The climate change and anthropogenic impacts for the Prespa Lake should be analysed in the frame of the ongoing Integrated Ecosystem Management in the Transboundary Prespa Park Region, the full size GEF project. • Oscillations of the water quantities which outflow from Macedonia are much higher in the last 40 years. Analysis of the outflow water quantities from the Republic of Macedonia showed that there is a linear descending trend of the water quantities which outflow from Macedonia, with a drop of around 70 million m3 on annual level. Minimal values of water quantities which outflow from the country are recorded for the period 1987-1995, and after 2001, there is a light increase of the water quantities. A decrease of precipitation in the last twenty years in comparison with the period 1961-90 at annual level in Macedonia is recorded, especially in 1988-1990, 1992-1994, 2000 and 2001. In the last ten years the average annual temperature is continuously higher than the long-range average. Concerning the reduction of the precipitations it can be concluded that reduction of the water quantities which outflow from the country is not only due to increased use of the water resources (antrophogenic impact), but primarily due to the changed climate conditions. • In Chapter Climate Change Impact on Social, Economic and Health Conditions, it is concluded that the climate change, especially extreme events (high temperatures and droughts) have impact on the drinking water demands, reflected in their increase. In the lack of precise data (both, availability of the water resources under climate change conditios and really consumed drinking water) for the territory of the country it is very difficult to quantify the impact with high accuracy. The prognostic value of increase on the drinking water demands of Skopje could be around 30%. • That means that it can be expected that the water supply quantities would increase in the conditions of climate change. The role of the adaptation measures must be mentioned in this part. The real consumed water in Skopje is about 50-60% of the total water quantities at the intake structure, which means that only half of the produced water is efficiently used (net norm is 50-60% of the gross water supply norm). Therefore, it is necessary to plan adaptation measures which would reduce the water losses. If these measures are implemented and give results until 2050 and further, it is very likely that there would be no increase of the water quantities used for water supply of population, or if there would be, it would be with smaller percentage of increase. • It can be concluded that climate change has no significant impact on the quantities of consumed water by the industry. • Climate change has double impact on the irrigation. On one hand, the main source for irrigation water is the surface water, and in the vulnerability assessment, it was concluded that there is a reduction in the available surface water, especially in the more vulnerable regions. The major irrigation systems are located precisely in the same, vulnerable regions, which mean that they are directly affected by the reduced available resources. Increased air temperatures induce increase of crop water requirements (increased evapotranspiration). On the other hand, due to the increased air temperatures and reduced precipitation (the main parameters for defining of effective rain), the effective rain is also reduced. According to the analysis, the effective rain is reduced, which directly affects the irrigation water requirements. The final result of climate change impact is the increased irrigation water requirements. • It is easy to conclude the negative impact of the climate change on the irrigation, actually on agriculture. If there are less irrigated areas, or less intensive crops, then the yields and income from agriculture are less. For the country like Macedonia, where 15-20% of the GDP is from the agriculture and food processing industry, production of food is an important economic segment. • Regarding the hydropower for energy production, it should be stated that the major Hydropower Plants are located in the western part of the country which is less vulnerable region. Taking into consideration that water resources in the western part are not significantly reduced and no significant losses in energy production occurred due the reduced discharges. 101 The same comment is made for the future period, as this part of the country is less affected by the climate change compared with other parts of the country. • After analyzing the extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts) it could be concluded that both events appear more often than in the past, as a result of the climate change. The damages provoked by the floods costs millions of USD, and directly affected already fragile agriculture and local economies. The biggest damages are in the rural areas where households and cultivated areas are flooded. Generally, the Republic of Macedonia has difficulties to cope with extreme hydrological events (droughts and floods) due to lack of finance, technical and institutional capacities and legal instruments. • The damages provoked by the drought cost millions of USD. Taking under consideration the information for yields with and without irrigation, it can be easily concluded that the income from the agricultural production loss would be significant for the farmers. • Regardless of the size of the areas covered with irrigation systems, the climate change will affect the availability of the water resources used for irrigation and will increase the crop water requirements, as a result of reduced effective rain. • The climate change impact on the water quality was analyzed using data from the monitoring of the water quality of river Vardar at sample point Skopje and Demir Kapija. The attempt was made to make a functional dependence of the following parameters: water temperature, dissolved Oxygen, Nitrogen Ammonium, Nitrogen Nitrite, Nitrogen Nitrate and Phosphate with the river discharges. The aim of the research is to analyze the impact of the reduced discharges (as a result of the climate change) on the water quality. The last four parameters belong to the group of nutrients, which are mainly coming from untreated urban wastewater and fertilizers. • The trend line of the dependence of water temperatures on discharges is with linear descending equation, which means that the water temperatures are increasing with decreasing of the discharges. This conclusion was expected, considering appearance of low discharges in River Vardar in hot periods (late spring, summer and early autumn). • The temperature is very important ecological factor and every increase means treat to the aquatic balance and aquatic species. In the climate change conditions, reduced discharges with increased water temperatures would have negative impact on aquatic environment. • Already known fact that temperature is reducing the quantities of dissolved oxygen is proved in the case of River Vardar. For the monitoring station Demir Kapija, the values of the dissolved Oxygen are higher than at Taor-Skopje, due to less organic pollution. At Taor- Skopje, organic pollution is much higher because the urban wastewater are discharged in the river Vardar without treatment. High organic pollution consumes the Oxygen in the water for decomposing, resulting in low values of dissolved Oxygen, recorded at Taor-Skopje. Therefore, the trend line of the dependence of dissolved Oxygen and temperatures is more descending at Taor-Skopje than in Demir Kapija. • The trend line of the dependency of the dissolved oxygen on discharges shows that increase in discharges is followed by increase of dissolved Oxygen concentrations under conditions of polluted water, which are different from the uncontaminated conditions. Reduced discharges with lower content of dissolved Oxygen could endanger the existence of the aquatic life. • Higher discharges are accompanied by lower concentration of Nitrogen Ammonia, and opposite, if the discharges are lower, then the concentrations of this parameter are higher. The trend line shows high dependence of the Nitrogen Ammonia for values bellow 2 mg/l N and discharges less than 50 m3/sec. It is very obvious that the concentrations of this parameter are increasing with reducing of the discharges, which in climate change conditions could endanger the aquatic environment. • There is a high dependence of the concentrations of the Nitrogen Nitrite and the discharges during time. When the discharges are high, then the concentration values of the analyzed parameter is lower, while in the period of the low discharges, the concentrations are much 102 higher. Due to have organic pollution at Taor-Skopje, the dilution ability of the river, depends on the discharges. In the periods of low discharges, dilution ability is much lower, which reflects on the nutrients concentration. The trend line has descending form, which confirms that with increasing of the discharges at river Vardar the concentrations of Nitrogen Nitrite are decreasing. • The defined dependence of the: temperatures, dissolved Oxygen, Nitrogen Ammonia and Nitrogen Nitrite on discharges are more expressed for the lower discharges. The negative impact of these parameters would affect more the water quality in the conditions of the climate change. • The results of the analyses for dependence of concentration of the Nitrogen Nitrate on discharges are not showing high correlation as for other two nutrient parameters. Longer historical data and consideration of all polluting factors should be analyzed for obtaining more reliable conclusions. • The trend line of the dependence Phosphate – Discharges has descending shape, which means that the concentrations of Phosphate are decreasing with increasing of the discharges. • Performed analyses confirmed that climate change conditions have negative impact on the water quality, regarding all three aspects: a) reduced hydrological resources leave less dilution flow in the river, leading to degraded water quality b) higher temperatures reduce dissolved oxygen content in water bodies and c) in response to climate change, water uses, especially those for agriculture, may increase the concentration of pollution being released to the rivers. All together, pose a treat to the water quality. • From the economic aspect, deteriorated water quality in the climate change conditions increases the costs for treatment of the wastewater. • Due to shortage of data related to historical occurrence of flash floods, their hydrograms and transported sediment, the effect of non-source pollution on surface water was not analyzed. Also, this lack of data was constraint for analyzing the floods as extreme hydrological events.

103 104 9. Recommendations

9.1. Adaptation Measures Adaptation refers to all those responses to climate change that may be used to reduce the vulnerability. Adaptation can also refer to actions designed to take advantage of new opportunities that arise as a result of climate change. In assessing climate change impact, it is imperative to take adaptation into account. Without assessment of such adaptations, the impact researchers could overestimate the potential negative impact of climate change. An additional reason for assessing adaptation is to inform policy makers about what they can do to reduce the risk of climate change. Adaptation measures related to water resources can be divided into two major classes, adaptation of the supply and adaptation of the demands. This can be explained as actions in two directions, one linked to the reduced available water resources and another one, linked to the increased water demands. The supply adaptations mainly could be realized through modification of the existing physical infrastructure, construction of new water infrastructure and alternative management of the existing water supply systems (in general). The demand adaptation can be implemented by conservation and improved efficiency, technological change and market/price –driven transfers to other activities. All mentioned types of measures are so called structural measures, except the last one, which belongs to the group of non-structural measures. These non-structural measures are related to policy creation, adoption and implementation, legislation, pricing system, planning and operation, education, public awareness etc. In the case of the Republic of Macedonia, non-structural measures could have significant impact on adaptation process, and due to this fact, for each domain of intervention, the measures are divided into structural and non-structural measures. The domains of intervention are defined accordingly to their vulnerability and climate change impact. Within the following domains, adaptation measures should be implemented in order to mitigate the impact of the climate change, reduce the vulnerability and to assure sustainable development: irrigation, water supply, flood and droughts, erosion and sedimentation, water resources management, monitoring, water quality and scientific research. The domains are not listed by priority, because that is very difficult to define. Also, that will allow some of the proposed measures to be implemented in parallel, as it is mostly the case in reality. Irrigation Irrigation is the major water consumer in the country with 40% of the total water demands. In the same time it is highly dependant on the available resources, which are reduced in the conditions of climate change and on irrigation water requirements, which in the same climate change conditions are increased due to reduced effective rain and increased evapotransipration. Irrigation is pre-condition for food production, and adaptation measures proposed for the irrigation sector could be treated as measures to enhance food security. The adaptation measures are divided into structural and non-structural measures and are presented in the following Table No.9.1 Table No.9.1. Adaptation measures for irrigation Domain: Irrigation Structural measures Non-structural measures - rehabilitation of the existing irrigation systems - water pricing - application of water saving irrigation methods - education - modernization of the operation of water delivery -credit facilities network through development of dynamic control - modernization of irrigation systems through replacement - insurances of open convey structures with pipeline system - change of crop pattern - operation and maintenance of irrigation system adopted to the climate change conditions - intensification of the cropping pattern (more crops per year) -night irrigation -construction of new irrigation systems 105 The major goals of the structural measures are to reduce the water losses, reduce the specific water consumption and to increase the efficiency of the systems. Taking into account the actual technical condition of the existing irrigation systems (except recently rehabilitated irrigation systems Tikves, Bregalnica and Polog, and Strezevo, which is in good condition), the most efficient way is to rehabilitate the physical infrastructure of the systems. On that way, the water losses from 50-60% could be reduced to 10-20%, which means saving of significant amount of water. Another measure for saving water is to apply irrigation methods with higher efficiency (sprinkle and trickle irrigation) instead of surface methods. Modernization of the irrigation distribution network through replacement of the open convey structures (canals, canalets etc) with pipeline system would be very efficient in Macedonia, because the main convey structures in the irrigation systems are open canals with 50-100 km length, with very high water losses due to leakage through the lining and transport distance and small percentage from evaporation. Small percentage of the losses results from evaporation, which is expected to increase in climate change conditions. The other group of measures is applicable on the farm level: change of crop pattern, intensification of the cropping pattern and night irrigation. One of the first adaptation measures on field level is to change from high water demanding crop to a lower one, which can be indirect way to enhance food security. Also, intensification of the cropping pattern with introduction of second or even third crop can increase the food production and yields in more even way during longer vegetation period. Night irrigation was originally planned in Macedonian irrigation systems, but slowly abandoned, due to change of the cropping pattern and transformation of the farmers into part-time farmers. In the condition of less available water, night irrigation, which is more efficient for the crops and with less evaporation can be another adaptation measure. At the end of the list of structural measures, construction of new irrigation systems is listed, as one of the most efficient measure, but in the same time the most expensive. The non-structural measures are mostly related with the farmers and how to change their behavior under new conditions of climate change or how to help them to give better response to the changes. The water pricing policy is a very important measure which should create realistic prices of the irrigation water. In the development world, it was very often that the price of the water was so low that the real costs for operation and maintenance could not be covered. In order to consider water as any other good, with a value, it is necessary to have realistic price of the water. At that way, the water users will save the water or at least will consider whether they will grow crops with high water consumption, which will cost a lot, or they will switch to another crop with lower water demand. The specific case in Macedonia is rice, which is a traditional crop in the eastern part of Macedonia. Irrigation water requirement for rice is about 20.000 m3/ha for a season, and if it is compared with grape, vegetable or cereals, the irrigation water requirement is 3-5 times higher. The farmers wanted to grow rice, because the price of the water was rather low, and they were still able to get good price for the rice. But, in the same time, the market price of the rice dropped down, while the price of the water for irrigation went up. Under these circumstances, it was not economically viable to grow rice any more, but the farmers have to grow other crops, which spend less water and with similar financial outcome. Education is an important measure which should be stimulated by the authorities in charge or farmers associations, in order to provide farmers with training, information, improved access to news related to water, irrigation and agriculture. For the success of this measure, it is important to be continues and to last five to ten years, before results to be observed. Credit and banking facilities can help the farmers to provide new irrigation equipment, which saves water, or to spread the risk of a higher variability in farm income, due to climate change impact on agriculture. The irrigation systems are operated and maintained (mostly poor) in a very traditional manner. Now, when the climate change impact is defined and the irrigation systems are affected, the operational and maintenance methodologies and practices should be adapted accordingly. That will be a great challenge for the operators of the systems, but also for the responsible authorities and scientific communities, which could be invited to assist in development of the new operational in real time and maintenance rules and practices.

106 Water supply for population Accordingly to the Water Law, water supply of population has the highest priority. This fact gives more confidence, that even if there is no sufficient water for all purposes, the population must be supplied as the user of the highest priority. On other hand, the technical conditions of the water supply systems showed enormous water losses, which should not be tolerated in future, especially not in the climate change conditions. Very similar to the previous sector, irrigation, the proposed adaptation measures are divided into structural and non-structural, with high emphasize on reduction of water losses. The measures are presented in the following Table No.9.2. Table No.9.2. Adaptation measures for water supply Domain: Water Supply Structural measures Non-structural measures -rehabilitation of the existing water supply network, -water pricing main supply structures, reservoirs, etc -introduction of automatic control of water supply -public awareness systems - to use conjuctivity surface/ground water -improved management of the public utilities -to use dual water supply network and other sources of water ( for drinking and for technical purposes- watering the green areas, washing the streets, etc) -recycling of water for non-potable drinking use -construction of new water supply systems in rural areas The water losses are between 30-60% of the total produced water, which means that only half of the abstracted or purified water is efficiently used. In order to reduce the water losses, the existing water supply systems should be rehabilitated and where is possible to introduce optimal management through installation of automatic control. In the group of the structural measures, also are mentioned: increase of volume of the water storage tanks in order to store the surplus water mainly in the night hours, then to establish a conjunction between the ground and surface water in order to increase the security of the supply, and which is very important especially for the cities in Macedonia, to use other sources of water for technical purposes, like washing the streets and watering the green areas, than the source for drinking water. One negative example is Skopje, where the water with extraordinary good drinking quality from the spring Rasce (only treatment of the water is chlorination, due to the condition of the distribution network and legal requirements), and that flows by gravity is used for watering the green areas in the city, and for washing the streets and roads. After years of experts’ warnings, that the water from the spring Rasce should be used only for drinking, a project for watering of the green areas from the wells and groundwater started. This is only one example, but the situation is very similar to other cities. One positive example is city of Negotino, where there is a parallel water supply system for drinking and for technical purposes. As last adaptation measure in this group is proposed the construction of new water supply systems in rural areas. This measure beside the provision of drinking water will also assure decrease of even eliminate water-born diseases. In the non-structural measures, the following measures are proposed: water pricing, public awareness and improved management of the public utilities. The first one is very similar to the one from the irrigation sector. Water pricing especially in water supply of population is considered as one of the most effective method for water saving. Different possibilities exist like gradual price according to the consumption, allowed quantities, higher price for high consumption etc. The ultimate idea is that the population understands that water is a good with a value and subjected to economic conditions. Public awareness is also very important in a process for valorization of the water, and should facilitate the process. In this adaptation measure, it is also foreseen to have a component for the climate change impact.

107 Not all the water losses in the system are technical. One large part comes from mismanagement of the public utilities for water supply. It is very important to improve the management system of these public utilities in order to assure sustainable and efficient water supply of the population. Even in the Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies it is mentioned that water supply is not so sensitive to the climate change, but it is mostly linked to the practices and habits of the population, according to personal expert opinion, it should be stressed that adaptation measures are necessary in water supply sector. Our country is not so reach with water that can anymore allow having 60% water losses.

Floods and Droughts According to the performed analysis in many regions around the world, as well according to the records for floods and droughts in the Republic of Macedonia, it can be concluded more frequent occurrence of these extreme hydrological events. In order to mitigate the impact and to reduce the vulnerability, few structural and non-structural measures listed in the Table No.9.3. are proposed: Table No. 9.3. Adaptation measures for floods and droughts Domain: Floods and Droughts Structural measures Non-structural measures -rehabilitation of the existing flood protection and -preparation of flood defense and protection plans drainage systems -regular maintenance of the drainage systems -review of the existing planning documents, urbanity plans, spatial plans - installation of early warning system -public awareness and education -construction of new flood protection and drainage -insurances systems -change of the cropping pattern towards drought resistant crops -controlled release of water from the reservoirs (operational practices) -construction of new irrigation systems The structural measures for adaptations related to floods are mainly concerning the flood protection and drainage systems. Some of the main critical sections of the rivers (Vardar, Crn Drim, Strumica, Crna, Bregalnica) are trained and regulated, but currently the technical condition is not meeting the requirements. The drainage systems are covering over 82.000 ha, but also due to poor maintenance, the systems are not functioning properly. Many of the recent floods provoked significant damages, which could be mitigate if the drainage systems were functioning. Due to these facts, the proposed measures are covering rehabilitation and regular maintenance of the flood protection and drainage systems. Following the modern trend for flood protection, it is necessary to install early warning system on the main rivers in Macedonia. Currently, there is ongoing project for River Monitoring System in Macedonia, which has a component for installation of system for early warning system. The project shall be finalized in 2008. The last structural measures related to floods are the same as in other domains, construction of new flood protection and drainage systems. The structural measures related to droughts are similar to those proposed for irrigation domain, which is quite understandable, because the most efficient adaptation measure for droughts is the irrigation. Besides the changing of cropping pattern, which in this case means change from irrigated crops to rainfed crops, and construction of new irrigation schemes, controlled release of water from the reservoirs is proposed as a measure which can provide sufficient water in the riverbeds downstream, so that the aquatique life would survive the drought conditions. The first non-structural measure is covering activities which should be performed by the responsible authorities, ministries, local self-governments, Water economies etc. The first step for successful protection is preparation of operational plan for protection and its coordination. Second step is to review the planning documents about the flooding plains and urbanization of the river banks and

108 valleys. The more frequent occurrence of floods must be taken into consideration when the spatial and urbanity plans are prepared or reviewed. The public must be educated and aware of the possible extreme hydrological events, their occurrence frequency, possible damages and how to protect themselves. And at the end of the list, insurance is listed as possible adaptation measures. In order to cover the consequences from the extreme weather events, there should be possibility for insurances. In some of the countries this type of insurances already exist, which is not the case for Macedonia. There is no possibility for the farmers to insure their agriculture production from floods and droughts, while for insurances from floods on property (houses, industry building, etc) there are very limited possibilities. The floods and droughts will be a feature of climate change in the future, and it makes sense to improve responses to similar events now occurring. In effect, improving response to extreme climatic events in the present (reduce vulnerability, increase resiliencies and strengthen adaptation capacity) provides a sort of training opportunity for learning how to improve response to future climate change.

Erosion and sedimentation Erosion and sedimentation was not elaborated separately in the sector analysis, but as an important factor for water resources and land use, it is necessary to propose adaptation measures for mitigation of the climate change impact. Due to erosion processes annual soil loss represents an average loss of arable soil layer of 20 mm depth on an area of 8.500 ha, which means 1.700.000 m3 of soil are lost every year. The economic cost of erosion impacts is considerable. Sedimentation into the reservoirs is one of the most concerning problems. Every year due to amount of sediments of 3x106 m3, that volume of storage from the reservoirs is lost, which means that every year 3 mill m3 of water is less stored in the reservoirs. The proposed adaptation measures are presented in the Table No. 9.4.:

Table No.9.4. Adaptation measures for erosion and sedimentation Domain: Erosion and sediments Structural measures Non-structural measures -reforestation of upstream river basins -control over illegal cutting of the forests -technical protective measures for torrent -update of the Map of Erosion regulation -regular dragging of the sediments from the riverbeds and reservoirs

The proposed adaptation measures belong to bio-technical measures for regulation of the torrents and areas without forest or vegetation. Beside those two, the regular cleaning and dragging of the sediments from the riverbeds and reservoirs would allow rivers to flow with the planned discharge without constrains, and the reservoirs not to reduce their volume due to the sedimentation. As the illegal cutting of the forests is one of the main reasons for erosion, controlling or even better stopping that activity, will contribute to better protection of the forests. The Map of Erosion which was produced in 1993, should be upgraded with new information and new status of the land.

Water Resources Management The term water resources management covers activities for water use, water planning, water protection and protection from the harmful effects of the water (floods and erosion). Beside the water planning all other activities are covered in different domains. The main focus in this domain will be management of reservoirs, planning, legal aspects and coordination of the water resources management, in the condition of climate changes.. The proposed adaptation measures are divided into

109 structural and non-structural, but it should be stressed the importance of the non-structural measures in this particular domain. The proposed measures are presented in the Table No.9.5. Table No.9.5. Adaptation measures in water resources management Domain: Water Resources Management (WRM) Structural measures Non-structural measures -adaptation of the operational regime of the - preparation of the basic WRM plans: National strategy, capacity of reservoirs in climate change Water Master Plan (finalization), River Basin conditions Management Plans (after adoption of the draft Water Law), taking into consideration changes of the available water resources and of demands -integrating separate reservoirs into a single -establishment of the new institutional set up for system integrated WRM upon river basins -construction of new dams (reservoirs) - strengthening of the capacities of the national authorities in charge of WRM -water transfer from one river basin to another - strengthening of the capacity of the operators-managers of hydro systems (water supply, irrigation, hydroplants, flood protection, erosion protection) -coordinate supply/demand

The dams and reservoirs enable to redistribute the water by time and space. The water is used for water supply of population, industry, for irrigation, energy production, recreation and tourism. The reservoir is used as retention space for the floods and as a protection from erosion and sediment downstream, and also releasing water from the reservoir, some of the consequences of droughts can be mitigated. Due to this, reservoirs are very important elements of the WRM, which can play important role in the adaptation measures. The climate changes affect the water resources, high and low waters, air temperatures and precipitation. Therefore, it is necessary first of all to review the operational plans (regime) of the reservoirs and to analyze whether the reservoir has the capacity to adapt to the climate changes or there is a need for physical adaptation (like crest augmentation or spillway enlargement). In order to enhance the water security, integration of separate reservoirs into a single system could be a good adaptation measure. If there is a possibility for construction of new dams, first the planning documents and design, should be reviewed whether the design of the dam is coping with the climate changes, or there is a need for corrections of the design. Another adaptation measure is transfer of water from one river basin to another, actually from less sensitive to more sensitive and vulnerable basins. But, if that is accepted as a measure to be implemented, it should be done very careful, with assessment of all possible changes of environment. Worldwide, there is very negative attitude for this measure, and all international financing institutions demand very strong justification for the proposed water transfer. It can be stated that this measure should be implemented as a last measure (ultimate) when no other measure or activity could lead to problem solution. The proposed non-structural measures are very important measures which should be performed by the highest responsible authorities in the country. Nowadays, the water management system is in transformation phase. The public utility on national level is dismissed, without legal successor who would be responsible for water resources management. The water management organizations mainly responsible for dam operation, irrigation, drainage, erosion protection are under transformation according the Law on Water Economies. There are already several newly established Water Economies, as sui generis legal entities. The Water Fund established by the actual Water Law is dismissed officially, but it still functioning. The draft version of the Water Law, fully approximated with the EU directives related to water, is prepared in 2004, but still is not adopted. With adoption of this law, there will be a legal base for establishment of the new institutional set up of the integrated WRM, upon the river basins. Also, the preparation of the planning documents like National Strategy, Water Master Plan (is ongoing) and River Basin Management Plans should start. Then, it is important to include in these documents the last findings, conclusions and recommendation of the Reports related to the climate change. That will influence on the available water resources, water demands, water balance, priority measures and activities. For the new institutional set up and preparation of the documents, the responsible officers at national institutions and in the local self-government should strengthen their capacities, because the majority of 110 the actions and documents will be completely new for them. Additionally to that, they should increase their capacity and their knowledge in the area of climate change. Also, the operators and managers in the irrigation and drainage systems, water supply systems, dam and hydroplant operators, should strengthen their capacities in the same area. Water quality Climate change affect water quality in three ways: a) reduced hydrological resources may leave less dilution flow in the river, leading to degraded water quality or increased investments in wastewater treatment, b) higher temperatures reduce dissolved oxygen content in water bodies and c) in response to climate change, water uses, especially those for agriculture, may increase the concentration of pollution being released to the rivers. The most successful structural adaptation measure is construction of the wastewater treatment plants, especially for the larger cities in Macedonia. In the group of non-structural measures, the following is proposed: enforcement of the Law on water supply, sewage, disposal and treatment of wastewater, strengthening of the capacities of the public utilities for sewage and wastewater and establishment of the water discharge permits system, after adoption of the new Water Law and new secondary legislation. The proposed measures are presented in the Table No. 9.6.. Table No. 9.6. Adaptation measures for water quality Domain: Water Quality Structural measures Non-structural measures -construction of wastewater treatment plants -enforcement of the Law on water supply, sewage, disposal and wastewater treatment -strengthening of the capacities of the public utilities -establishment of water discharge permits system (after adoption of the draft Water Law and new secondary legislation)

Monitoring One of the most important activities in the climate change observation process is the monitoring of the meteorological and hydrological parameters. For successful assessment of the impact on the climate change on these parameters, it is necessary to have efficient, reliable, contemporary and accurate monitoring system. The monitoring tradition is rather long in Macedonia, but due to financial and other technical problems is not always meeting the needs for data. Therefore, the proposed structural measures for adaptation lead to improvement of the monitoring network, improvement of the data processing, implementation of the predictive models in real time and modernization of the equipment (field monitoring equipment, laboratory, software and hardware). But, not only are the good technical conditions sufficient for successful and reliable monitoring, but human resources and institutional organization. In Macedonia, there are certain constrains and due to this, in the proposed non-structural adaptation measures are included establishment of efficient institutional set-up for monitoring, strengthening of the capacities of the institutions responsible for monitoring and provision of sufficient funds on regular base for monitoring activities. The proposed adaptation measures for monitoring are given in the following Table No. 9.7. Table No.9.7. Adaptation measures for monitoring Domain: Monitoring on climate and hydrological parameters Structural measures Non-structural measures -improvement of the monitoring network for -establishment of efficient institutional set up for parameters relevant for water resources in terms of monitoring quantity and quality (climate and hydrological parameters) -improvement of data processing and publishing -strengthening of the capacities of the institutions in charge of monitoring -application of predictive models -modernization of the equipment (in field, laboratory, software, hardware) 111 Scientific Research Several scientific research topics are proposed to be elaborated as separate studies or analysis: • Development of scenarios (or application of existing) for simulation of integrated water resources management on a basin level or on the whole territory of the country; • Development of scenarios (or application of existing) for simulation of discharges of the rivers in 2050 and 2100; • Development of socio-economic scenarios for 2050 and 2100; • Study on extreme weather events, floods and droughts in the condition of climate changes; • Study on financial instruments for covering the costs of implementation of the National Action Plan. All these studies and research activities should be performed as joint efforts between national and international experts, in order to be provided technology transfer, exchange of experiences and knowledge. During defining of the Adaptation measures the recommendations from the Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessement and Adaptation Strategies, Adaptation strategies to enhance food security by P. Droogers et all., 2003, and Water, Food and Environment in the Rhine Basin (contribution to the project ADAPT, by Han Klein et all, 2004 were consulted.

9.2. Adaptation Related Projects The following text consists proposed adaptation related projects (in a form of project concept) including regulations and technologies for controlling water use, implementation of soft and hard measures, improvements in the water managements operations etc.:

PROJECT TITLE: Adaptation Measures to Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change of the Irrigation System in the South Eastern Part of Macedonia Goal: Development of adaptive capacity for sustainable water supply and irrigation systems in Macedonia effective adaptive measures for mitigation of vulnerability of irrigation system in the most affected area in Macedonia by the climate change. Overall development objective: to improve capacity and generate knowledge for increased understanding of the adaptability and vulnerability of human and infrastructural systems on the example of the irrigation system Turija and improve preparedness for climate change and enhance adaptive capacity through lessons learned and dissemination. The project specific objective is to achieve adaptability to climate change of vulnerable Turija irrigation system’s in Macedonia by improved policy and management measures Outcomes: 1. strengthen the operational capacities of the irrigation system by introducing adaptive management practice; 2. development of policy and institutional capacity for improved adaptation of the water based infrastructure to climate change; 3. Adaptive project management, monitoring and evaluation, and knowledge management through the Adaptation Learning Mechanisms. Project description: Introduction The Hydro System "Turija" covers an irrigation area of 10.050 ha. The system is consisted of rockfill dam with clay core, a reservoir with gross capacity of 48 million m3 and irrigation network (17 km long main open concrete canal, and the 7 km long asbestos-cement pipelines, the group canals of 15,4 km and the secondary network of 161,8 km). This is a multi-purpose hydro system that apart from 112 provision of water for irrigation, also provides water for water supply of the town of Strumica and its industry, and electrical power production. The Hydro System "Turija" geographically belongs to the south eastern part of the Republic of Macedonia. According to the climatic classifications the territory of this region is characterized by combined continental and sub-Mediterranean climate and to the Rainfall Index by Lange the area is determined as semi arid area. In the First National Communication under the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Changes (2003) is stated that “for river Strumica-Sushevo, very bad hydrological condition has been stated. Namely minimum flows are within 0-0.5 m3/s limits for several years observed period, average flows have a trend of descending, it is expected in the following period, river Strumica to be classified as a river that is drying up, that is, to lose the category of permanent watercourse. Taking into consideration time distribution of hydrological and meteorological parameters in the eastern part of the Republic of Macedonia, similar situations can be assumed also with the other surface watercourses in this region”. It can be stated that this region is the most vulnerable part of the Republic of Macedonia to the climate change. On the other hand, in this region there is an intensive agricultural production of vegetables and fruits with high consumption of irrigation water quantities. The analysis of the conditions of the irrigation system Turija showed high water losses and low coefficient of effectiveness, mainly due to poor and not on time maintenance of the system, lack of controlling structures and methods and different crop pattern from the designed one. Considering the situation when the natural factors are rather unfavorable and vulnerable in the conditions of the climate changes, and technical conditions of the system are also problematic, the need for technical, organizational and operational rehabilitation of the system Turija, is highly prioritized in every national planning document like: NEAP (1996) and NEAP 2 (2006), National Spatial Plan of the Republic of Macedonia(1998), National Strategy for Economic Development of Macedonia (1997) etc. Proposed methodology This project presents an adaptation measures towards the climate change impact on the irrigation system in the most vulnerable part of Republic of Macedonia. The project includes development and implementation of a management information system that is expected to give a support to a decision maker while making decisions about irrigation water delivery. The only necessary element for management of available water resources is the existence of reservoir. It can be stated that management information system can be considered as selection of operational practices for the useful capacity of the reservoir. Criteria for selection of a best management procedure are: meeting the estimated irrigation requirements during time and meeting the minimal quantity of delivered water in cases when the estimated irrigation requirements can not be met due to water shortage. Within the project an analysis of the current project documentation about system configuration and parameters for the representative historical period is going to be performed. The results from the climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes prepared for the SNC for future time horizons will be interpreted and included in the analysis. Criteria for adequate irrigation from a probabilistic and quantitative aspect will be selected. A mathematical model for management of the useful capacity of the reservoir will be developed and then the computer program will be verified and calibrated for the hydrological data and assumed operational practices. Optimal solution for the irrigation system will be suggested within the general strategy and criteria defined (for minimizing the irrigation water use). The possible impact of climate change on river runoff in selected region and also on irrigation water demands will be evaluated. Estimation of synthetically data for the inflow waters into the reservoir and irrigation water demands including climate change impact on these data for the forthcoming period will be done. Than several operational practices for management of the hydro system will be performed: standard operational policy for the historical data, standard operational policy for the estimated data and optimal operational policy for the estimated runoff and irrigation demands data. Interpretation of the results and conclusions about the contribution of the innovations in the irrigation method selection and improvement of the operational management policy of the reservoir capacity are going to be presented.

113 PROJECT TITLE: Development of Methodology for Ground Water Vulnerability Assessment in the Republic of Macedonia under Climate Change Conditions Goal: Development of methodology for vulnerability assessment of the ground water in the most affected area in Macedonia by the climate change and development of adaptation measures. Overall development objective: to improve capacity and generate knowledge for increased understanding of the adaptability and vulnerability of groundwater systems and improve preparedness for climate change. The project specific objective is to achieve adaptability to climate change of vulnerable groundwater in Macedonia. Outcomes: 1. improvement of the monitoring system for groundwater including specific requirements under climate change conditions; 2. development of methodology for groundwater vulnerability assessment to climate change; 3. adaptation measures. Project description: Introduction One of the main problems related to water resources monitoring is the ground water observation and quantity and quality assessment. Unfortunately, there is no sufficient data on groundwater yields, quantities or quality in the Republic of Macedonia. Observation and examination of the groundwater have not been performed systematically and continuously, except for the local demands for certain regions. More detailed examination has been carried out only within the period 1963-1975, when hydrogeological units for basins of rivers Upstream Vardar, Treska, Crn Drim, Crna Reka, Downstream Vardar and Eastern Macedonia have been identified. The main use of the groundwater in Macedonia is for drinking water supply and for industry supply, and in few cases for irrigation. Due to intensive irrigation and use of fertilizers, as well as pollution from the industry, the ground water is rather polluted. Under climate change conditions, the groundwater can be overexploited due to increased demands and the quality can be deteriorated. The need for assessment of the groundwater quantity and quality is identified in several national planning documents: NEAP (1996) and NEAP (2006), National Spatial Plan of the Republic of Macedonia etc. Proposed Methodology First component of the project shall include review of the current hydrogeological research on the whole territory of the Republic of Macedonia with conclusions and recommendations for further analysis. The second review will consider the monitoring network for groundwater, from the quantity and quality aspect. Also, interaction between surface and groundwater and climate factors impact on the water balance, will be analyzed. Criteria for assessment of the groundwater vulnerability will be developed and applied where it is possible, depending on the available data. According to the results, adaptation measures will be proposed.

114 PROJECT TITLE: Simulation of Water Balance for the Republic of Macedonia under Climate Change Conditions Goal: Development of water balance of the Republic of Macedonia under climate change conditions. Overall development objective: to improve capacity and generate knowledge for vulnerable areas with water resources shortages and to improve preparedness for climate change. The project specific objective is to define the shortages and surpluses of water resources in Macedonia and adaptation measures for coping with water shortages. Outcomes: 1. scenarios for simulation of discharges of the rivers in 2050; 2. definition of water balance of the river basins; 3. adaptation measures. Project description: Introduction In the National Spatial Plan of the Republic of Macedonia (Expert Report on Water Resources Management), water balance of the available surface water resources and total demands by river basins has been performed for two time horizons, present and future 2020. This water balance should be treated only as approximative one, because there is no sufficient data on real consumed water, recharged water from irrigation, water supply and fishing nursery. Also, for the catchment's areas of Ohrid, Prespa and Dojran Lake and for evaporation or underground connection with the groundwater aquifers, there are no data. Because of the uncertainty of the input data, output data should be treated as approximative. This water balance was elaborated without considering the climate change impact on available water resources and demands. Even without climate change impact, for the present situation, river basin of Strumica is facing shortage of water in the case of average and 75% dry year (the available water resources are not meeting the demands). The shortage is more expressed for the time horizon 2020 for the river basins of Strumica, Bregalnica and Crna. Following the results of the Vulnerability Assessment of water resources, new water balance for time horizon 2050 should be elaborated including climate change impact on the available water resources and on the demands. Also, it is necessary to use the results of the socio- economic scenarios for development, in order to define future water demands. An estimation of water balance is planned to be performed in the new Water Master Plan of the Republic of Macedonia, but not taking into consideration climate change impact on available water resources and demands. Proposed methodology This project will estimate the water balance on the river basins base in the Republic of Macedonia, for the time horizon 2050 including climate change impact on available water resources and on demands. For implementation of the project, it is necessary to develop and to apply socio-economic scenarios for 2050. The required input will be the defined future water demands for water supply, industry, irrigation, fisheries and minimal accepted discharges from the socio-economic scenarios. First component of the project will include analysis of the available metheorological and hydrological data. Methods of stochastic hydrology will be used to analyze homogeneity of the data and to fill the missing historical data. Only data that are homogeneous will be used for prediction. Next phase of the project will include development of scenarios for simulation of the discharges of the rivers in 2050, using Integrated Water Resources Model. Then evapotranspiration and effective rain under climate change conditions will be estimated for all

115 river basins in the Republic of Macedonia. Analysis on irrigation water requirements and also drinking water demands shall be performed. The estimated irrigation water requirements will be input in the development of the socio-economic scenarios regarding the irrigation demands. It is important to emphasize that development of the socio-economic scenarios should be done by another working team of experts in this field, not in the frame of this project, but in close cooperation. After definition of inputs, different water balance scenarios will be developed. Using mathematical models, the status of surplus and shortage of water resources will be defined on the river basins base. Following the results of the analysis, the most vulnerable regions in the Republic of Macedonia will be identified and adequate adaptation measures will be proposed (water storage, water transfer etc).

116 9.3 National Action Plan The National Action Plan is comprised of three types of measures, legal, institutional and direct. In the group of the legal measures, those related to legislation and documents of strategic importance are included. The second group of measures considers the strengthening of the national and local level capacities. In the third group direct measures are presented, divided upon the area of intervention. Most of them are technical, but there are also measures including scientific research and analyses. Some of the presented measures are already ongoing, while others are planned as short and medium-term measures. 1. Legal Measures No. Activity Responsibility of Time frame Level of priority Status of activity Costs Source of financing 1.1 Adoption of draft Water Law MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007 H Ongoing EURO 50.000 Government MoH, MoTC, MoE 1.2 Adoption of the priority MoAFWE, MoEPP 2007-2010 H Some bylaws are > EURO Not defined secondary legislation (after under preparation 1.000.000 adoption of the new Water Law) 1.3 Preparation of the National MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2008 H Not started USD 200.000 Not defined Strategy on Waters scientific and professional community 1.4 Completion of the Water Master MoAFWE 2006-2008 H Ongoing, started in USD 2.500.000 Not defined Plan, including change of 1999 available and demanded water resources due to climate change impact 1.5 Establishment of integrated water MoAFWE, MoEPP 2007-2008 H Not started Not defined Not defined managment bodies for river basins

2. Institutional Measures No. Activity Responsibility of Time frame Level of priority Status of activity Costs Source of financing 2.1 Strengthening of capacities of the MoAFWE, MoEPP 2007-2009 H Not started EURO 1.000.000 Not defined authorities responsible for IWRM 2.2 Strengthening of capacities of MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2009 H Not started EURO 1.000.000 Not defined system operators in climate operators, scientific change conditions community 2.3 Strengthening of capacities of All responsible for 2007 H continues >EURO 500.000 Not defined institutions responsible for monitoring monitoring

117 3. Direct Measures 3.1 Domain: Irrigation Level of Source of No. Activity Responsibility of Time frame Status of activity Costs priority financing 1 Irrigation Rehabilitation and MoAFWE and Water 1998-2006 Ongoing (in final USD 12.500.000 World Bank Restructuring Project Economies phase) (loan) USD 11.990.000 Netherlands (donation) USD 8.000.000 Macedonian contrib. 2 Development of irrigation in south MoAFWE 2003-2008 Ongoing EURO 6.646.608 KfW (loan) region of river Vardar EURO 1.489.314 KfW (donation) 3 Rehabilitation of Irrigation System MoAFWE and Water Not defined M Technical EURO 9.000.000 Not defined Prespansko Pole-Resen Economy documents are ready 4 Rehabilitation and modernization MoAFWE and Water Not defined H Not started EURO 43.000.000 Not defined of Irrigation System Strumicko Economy Pole 5 Study on climate change impact Scientific 2007-2008 H Not started EURO 100.000 Not defined on the irrigation water demands community, Water Economies 6 Study on modernization on the Scientific 2007-2008 H Not started EURO 150.000 Not defined irrigation systems under climate community, Water change conditions Economies 7 Study on modernization of water MoAFWE, scientific 2007-2010 M Not started EURO 400.000 Not defined flow control through dynamic community methods (Irrigation Systems Tikves and Bregalnica) 8 Campaign for increasing the level MoAFWE, scientific 2007-2008 H Not started EURO 200.000 Not defined of education of farmers for water community, farmers saving techniques, cropping associations pattern, second and third crop, night irrigation, etc through publishing Farmers Manuals

118

3.2. Domain: Water Supply of Population Level of Source of No. Activity Responsibility of Time frame Status of activity Costs priority financing 1. MEAP – water supply and MoTC 2002-ongoing Ongoing EURO 55.500.000 EBRD, sanitation rehabilitation in (in final phase) Switzerland, Strumica, Ohrid, Struga, Veles, Portugal, Germany, Stip, Kumanovo Greece EURO 5.080.000 Local contribution 2. Rehabilitation of water supply MoF 2003-2007 Ongoing EURO 9.200.000 KfW grant system Prilep 3. Study on climate change impact Scientific 2007 M Not started EURO 100.000 Not defined on drinking water demands community, Public water supply utilities 4. Study on improvement of Scientific 2007 M Not started EURO 100.000 Not defined management of water supply community, systems in climate change Public water supply conditions utilities 5. Study on possible new water Industry, scientific 2007 M Not started EURO 120.000 Not defined sources for supplying the industry community 6. Study on improving of the Public water supply 2007 M Not started EURO 120.000 Not defined efficiency of the water supply utilities, scientific systems community

119 3.3. Domain: Floods and Droughts Level of Source of No. Activity Responsibility of Time frame Status of activity Costs priority financing 1 Rehabilitation and construction MoAFWE, MoEPP, H Technical > EURO Not defined of flood protection structures in Water Economies, local 2006-2009 documentation is 500.000 upper Vardar self-government units completed, construction works are following 2 Rehabilitation and construction MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2009 H Not started > EURO Not defined of flood protection structures in Water Economies, local 500.000 lower Vardar, Strumica and self-government units Bregalnica region 3 Rehabilitation and construction MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2010 M Part of technical EURO Not defined of drainage system Pelagonija Water Economies, local documentation is 40.000.000 self-government units ready 4 Rehabilitation and cleaning of MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2005-2006 Ongoing (in final EURO National budget Monospitovo drainage canal in Water Economies, local phase) 1.000.000 Strumica region government of Strumica 5 Training of River Kumanovska in UNDP, local 2006 Ongoing USD 250.000 UNDP the central city section government of Kumanovo 6 Preparation and/or upgrading of MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2008 H Continues No information National and the existing operational plans for local self-governments, local budgets flood defense and protection Water Economies 7 Establishment of early warning MoEPP, MoAFWE, 2007-2009 H Not started CHF 400.000 Swiss donation system for floods (phase 1) HMA CHF 120.000 Macedonian contribution 8 Establishment of early warning MoEPP, MoAFWE, 2007-2009 H Not started EURO 200.000 Not defined system for droughts HMA 9 Public awareness raising MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007 H Not started EURO 200.000 Not defined campaign for climate change scientific community, impact on extreme events; flood HMA and drought and possibilities for protection and mitigation of the negative impact

120 3.4. Domain: Erosion and sedimentation Level of Source of No. Activity Responsibility of Time frame Status of activity Costs priority financing 1 Preparation of studies and final MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2010 M Not started EURO 120.000 Not defined designs for torrent training in local self-government region of Strumica and Kavadarci units 2 Reclamation of extremely eroded MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2010 H Not started > EURO 500.000 Not defined land scientific and professional community 3 Remediation of degraded land hot MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2010 H Not started > EURO 500.000 Not defined spots, including introduction of scientific community demonstration projects

3.5. Domain: Water Resources Management and Environmental protection Level of Source of No. Activity Responsibility of Time frame priority Status of activity Costs financing 1 Construction of dam Lisice MoAFWE 1991-2006 Ongoing (in final EURO 9.813.798 Spain (loan) phase) EURO 10.730.000 Netherlands (donation) 2 Construction of Hydrosystem MoAFWE 2003-2010 Ongoing JPY 9.689.000 Japan Zletovica- I phase: dam Knezevo and irrigation 3 Construction of dam Vakuf MoAFWE Not defined L Not started EURO 50.000.000 Not defined 4 Final Design for dam Plavaja MoAFWE Not defined L Not started EURO 300.000 Not defined 5 Feasibility Study for dam Orizarska MoAFWE Not defined M Not started EURO 400.000 Not defined 6 Adaptation of the operational MoAFWE, dam 2007 H No started EURO 100.000 Not defined management regime of reservoirs operators, scientific in climate change conditions (pilot community project) 7 Establishment of Integrated Water MoAFWE, MoEPP 2007-2009 M Not started CHF 400.000 Swiss donation Resources Management for CHF 100.000 Macedonian Bregalnica river basin (pilot contrib. project)

121 3.6. Domain: Water Quality Level of Source of No. Activity Responsibility of Time frame Status of activity Costs priority financing 1 Construction of Waste Water Local self-government 2005-2007 Ongoing EURO 1.300.000 Austrian donation Treatment Plant in Krivogastani of Krivogastani municipality 3 Construction of WWTP in other MoEPP and local self- 2008- H Not started EURO 230.000.000 Not defined larger cities government units for Macedonia in total 4 Feasibility study on treated MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2009 L Not started EURO 300.000 Not defined wastewater with emphasis for use scientific community in agriculture 5 Study on climate change impact on MoEPP, HMA and 2007-2009 H Not started EURO 300.000 Not defined water resources quality scientifc community

3.7 Domain: Monitoring Level of Source of No. Activity Responsibility of Time frame Status of activity Costs priority financing 1 Improvement of meteorological and MoEPP, HMA 2006-2008 Ongoing CHF 1.300.000 Swiss donation hydrological monitoring stations CHF 77.000 Macedonian (RIMSYS project) contrib. 2 Improvement of data processing HMA, MoEPP 2007-2010 M Some components > EURO 500.000 Not defined and publishing are ongoing within RIMSYS project 3 Improvement of groundwater HMA, MoAFWE 2008-2010 H Not started > EURO 1.000.000 Not defined monitoring network 4 Modernization of equipment (In the HMA, MoEPP, 2007-2010 H There are some > EURO 1.000.000 Not defined field, in laboratory, software and MoAFWE results within hardware) different projects

122 3.8. Domain: Scientific Research and Technology Transfer Level of Source of No. Activity Responsibility of Time frame Status of activity Costs priority financing 1 Development (or application of MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2006-2007 H The software Not defined Not defined existing) scenarios for simulation of HMA, scientific MIKE SHE is integrated water resources community available for management on a basin level or on creating the model the whole territory of the country 2 Development (or application of MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2008 H Not started Not defined Not defined existing) scenarios for simulation of HMA, scientific discharges of the rivers in 2050 and community 2100; 3 Development (or application of MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2008 H Not started EURO 100.000 Not defined existing) socio-economic scenarios MoE, scientific for 2050 and 2100 community 4 Study on extreme weather events, MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007 H Not started EURO 200.000 Not defined floods and droughts in the condition HMA, scientific of climate changes community 5 Study on financial instruments for MoAFWE, MoEPP, 2007-2008 M Not started EURO 200.000 Not defined covering the costs of scientific community implementation of the National Action Plan.

Legend: MoAFWE – Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy MoEPP - Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning MoE – Ministry of Economy MoTC – Ministry of Transport and Communication MoF- Ministry of Finance HMA – Hydrometeorological Administration IWRM – Integrated Water Resources Management WWTP – Waste Water Treatment Plant H-high level of priority M-medium level of priority L-low level of priority

123 References:

1. Answers to the Questionary of EU Commission, Chapter 22 Environment 2. Cvetkovski M., 1994, The Quality of Skopje Region Groundwater, First Conference on Water Management in the Republic of Macedonia, Struga, pg. 47-50 3. Djordjevic B., Water Management Systems, 1990, Beograd 4. Donevska K., 1991, Hydrologic Processes with Low Probability, Master thesis, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Skopje 5. Donor Coordination Meeting, 2006, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy, Sida, EAR, SEA 6. Droogers P., Hoogeveen J., Jos van Dam, Adaptation Strategies to Enhance Food Security, 2003 7. Expert Report on Water Resources Management for the Spatial Plan of the Republic of Macedonia, RIKOM, 1998 8. Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies, 1998 9. Iljovski I., Cukaliev O., Trajkov A., 1995, Irigation Water Quality from River Vardar and Reservoir Mladost According to the Irrigation Coefficients and Toxic-Chemical Status, Proceedings on the Meeting Faculty –Economy, pg. 131-139. 10. IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impact and Adaptations 11. Klemen B., 2006, Report on Climate Change Scenarios for Macedonia, Review of Methodology and Results. 12. Macedonia’s First National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2003, (Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning/ UNDP), 13. Macedonia’s National Capacity Needs Self-Assessment for Global Environmental Management, 2005, (Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning/ UNDP), 14. National Action Plan to Combat Desertification and Land Degradation in Macedonia-draft, 2006, (Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning/ UNDP), 15. National Capacity Needs Self-Assessment for Global Environmental Management – Capacity Self-Assessment on Climate Change, 2004, (Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning/ UNDP), 16. National Capacity Needs Self-Assessment for Global Environmental Management – Capacity Self-Assessment within the Thematic Area of Land Degradation and Desertification, 2003 17. NEAP 1- Report on Water Resources Management, 1996 18. NEAP 2 – DPSIR Report on Water, 2004 19. Popovska C., Gesovska V., Donevska K., 2004, Hydrology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Skopje 20. Project Profiles, 2005, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy 21. Review of the First Communication on Climate and Climate Changes and Adaptation in the Republic of Macedonia, Section: Hydrology and Water Resources, 2004, (Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning/ UNDP), 22. Skoklevski Z., 2003, High Water and Flood Appearance and Risk on Damages, IX Conference on Water Management of Macedonia. 23. Statistical Yearbooks 1995-2002 24. Trajanoska L., Kaevski I ., Pavlovska V., Georgievska R., Vidoevska V., 2004, Assessment of Climate Change Using Method of Mathematic Statistics and Theory of Probability, BALWOIS 2004, Ohrid 25. Water, Climate, Food and Environment in the Rhine Basine, Contribution to the Project ADAPT, 2004 26. Yevjevic, V., 1972, Probability and Statistics in Hydrology, Forth Collins, Colorado. 27. Yevjevic, V., 1974, Stochastic Processes in Hydrology, Forth Collins, Colorado. 28. www.moe.gov.mk 29. www.meteo.gov.mk 30. www.vodovod-skopje.com.mk 31. www.adkom.org.mk

124 32. www. moe.gov.mk

33. www.unfcccHTU .intUTH

125 ANNEX 1. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION

NATIONAL EXPERTS FOR THE WATER RESOUCES SECTOR

2. I. Project background information Acknowledging the significance of the climate change problem and the necessity to take effective actions for its mitigation, the Republic of Macedonia ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on December 4, 1997 (Official Gazette of RM – International agreements 61/97), and became party to the Convention on April 28, 1998. As a non-Annex I Party to the Convention, the country has committed to produce the Initial National Communication to the Conference of the Parties (CoP).

The leading role in the implementation of the Convention on climate change falls within the competence of the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, in cooperation with other ministries. Preparation of the Initial National Communication (INC) was conducted thanks to the GEF’s grant, through UNDP as an implementing agency.

To address the problem of climate change more effectively, a Climate Change Project Unit within the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning was established. The Macedonian Government has also appointed the National Climate Change Committee entitled to supervise and co-ordinate the implementation of the projects and climate change related issues.

The Initial National Communication on Climate Change was submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat in March 2003, and presented at the side event at COP9. In continuation, the Top-Ups activities were implemented in duration of one year, financed by UNDP/GEF, which contributed to extending existing analyses and enhancing national capacities in the most priority areas.

The project for preparation of the Second National Communication on climate change is a logical continual step towards further implementation of the UNFCCC at national level. Its main objective is preparing a comprehensive report on the climate change following the UNFCCC guidelines. The analysis conducted within the INC will be upgraded and extended, which will result in preparation of an advanced national report. Furthermore, it will work towards ensuring that climate change issues are not considered as separate to national and local environmental concerns by integrating climate change concerns and objectives into national and local strategic planning processes.

II. Scope of Work In close cooperation with the relevant national institutions, the expert will conduct Vulnerability assessment and adaptation for water resources sector. Specific activities outlined below will lead to preparation of a comprehensive report that will be

126 integrative part of the Vulnerability assessment and adaptation thematic area within the SNC.

III. Duties and Responsibilities T

- Undertake background analyses, collect and analyze data on water resources and their correlation to current climate variability and future climate change - Utilize findings from all existing (past or ongoing) related projects, analysis and/or investigations in the country for the benefit of the project - Undertake analysis for the following sub-sectors: hydrometeorology, irrigation, water supply, and water utilization for energy generation (hydropower) - Extend the analyzed period within the FNC up to year 2000 for the hydro meteorological parameters - Extend the analysis from the FNC at least at one more station on the River Vardar (Demir Kapija or Gevgelija) and at one more station on one eastern tributary of River Vardar (Bregalnica or Pcinja), in order to analyze the climate change impacts on the available water resources in different regions of the country and to identify the level of vulnerability in each region - Analyze the water quality deterioration due to the impact of climate changes in order to define the required parameters for identification and projection of the climate changes impact over water quality - Analyze the changes in runoff and available surface flow, freshwater supplies, etc. - Analyze the available water resources in the condition of climate changes, focusing the reduced water resources on the level of the river basins - Analyze impact of these new conditions on the economic, social, health aspects in the country - Propose adaptation related projects (in a form of project concept) focusing on short term and long term strategies, including regulations and technologies for controlling water use, implementation of soft and hard measures, improvements in the water managements operations, etc. - Analyze the climate change impact and correlation of water resources on the socio-economic aspects in the country - Prepare a draft National Action Plan to identify measures of highest priority in the water resource sector. The plan will be part of the comprehensive national action plan for adaptation in the most vulnerable sectors. The activities in NAP should be linked to activities to other planning documents such as National Environmental Action Plan (which is under revision), Physical Plan, Water Master Plan, River Basin Management Plans in order to provide synergy of the coordinated and cooperated actions. Further, the financial instruments for implementation of the National Action Plan should be proposed (suggested). The NAP should include: ¾ General policies that have implications for adaptation, ¾ Clear distinction of responsibilities among the relevant stakeholders, ¾ Timeframe for fulfillment/implementation of the recommended measures, ¾ Financial means for implementation of the measures, ¾ Identification of possible barriers and risks, including legal arrangements, institutional management, financial and technological aspects ¾ Opportunities and priorities for adaptation.

127 IV. Qualifications and Skills The expert contracted for undertaking project activities should meet the following minimum criteria: - Advanced university degree (MSc, PhD would be an asset) in Civil engineering (water resources) - Prior experience in vulnerability assessment and adaptation processes - Familiarity with the methodologies and guidelines for the vulnerability assessment and adaptation - Familiarity with the UNFCCC, IPCC technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations, Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies - Knowledge of the MIKE SHE software and practical experience with its application - Excellent knowledge of English language - Ability to work in a team

V. Expected output: Completed bilingual report Macedonian-English (comprehensive and summary version) on vulnerability assessment and adaptation strategy for the sector water resources which should follow the below structure: ¾ Purpose and objectives of the assessment; ¾ Organization of the assessment work ¾ Participation of stakeholders ¾ Vulnerability to current climate variability and future climate change ¾ Methodology or approaches used ¾ Spatial/geographical boundaries and time horizons ¾ Description of exposure units and sub-sectors studied ¾ Main findings ¾ Recommendations

VI. Terms and conditions for provision of services: The assignment will be combination of in-country arrangement approximately of 5 months of service. The consultant is required also to discuss the main findings and recommendations with the national stakeholders at a workshop. The consultant’s will work based on a contract with UNDP Macedonia, and will report to the Project Manager of the Climate Change project. All reports will be subject of review by both the National Focal Point on Climate Change and UNDP Programme Officer on Environment.

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