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Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND PHYSICAL PLANNING REPORT ON SECOND COMMUNICATION ON CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGES AND ADAPTATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA SECTION: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation for Water Resources Sector Prepared by Katerina Donevska Ph.D. December 2006, Skopje CONTENTS 1. Purpose and Objectives of the Assessment 1 2. Organization of the Assessment Work 2 3. Participation of Stakeholders (workshops) 2 4. Methodology and Approaches Used 2 5. Spatial/Geographical Boundaries and Time Horizons 2 6. Description of Exposure Units and Sub-Sectors Studied 5 7. Vulnerability Assessment 7.1. Findings from the Existing and Past Climate Change Related Projects 17 7.2. Analysis of Meteorological Parameters 19 7.3. Analysis of the Climate Change Impact on the Available Water Resources 24 7.4. Climate Change Impact on Social, Economic and Health Conditions 74 7.5. Climate Change Impact on Surface Water Quality 81 8. Main Findings 97 9. Recommendations 9.1 Adaptation Measures 105 9.2 Adaptation Related Projects 112 9.3 National Action Plan 117 References 124 Annex: ToR 1. Purpose and Objectives of the Vulnerability Assessment 1.1. General background information Acknowledging the significance of the climate change problem and the necessity to take effective actions for its mitigation, the Republic of Macedonia ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on December 4, 1997 (Official Gazette of RM – International agreements 61/97), and became party to the Convention on April 28, 1998. As a non-Annex I Party to the Convention, the country has committed to produce the Initial National Communication to the Conference of the Parties (CoP). The leading role in the implementation of the Convention on climate change falls within the competence of the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, in cooperation with other ministries. Preparation of the Initial National Communication (INC) was conducted thanks to the GEF’s grant, through UNDP as an implementing agency. To address the problem of climate change more effectively, a Climate Change Project Unit within the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning was established. The Macedonian Government has also appointed the National Climate Change Committee entitled to supervise and co-ordinate the implementation of the projects and climate change related issues. The Initial National Communication on Climate Change was submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat in March 2003, and presented at the side event at COP9. In continuation, the Top-Ups activities were implemented in duration of one year, financed by UNDP/GEF, which contributed to extending existing analyses and enhancing national capacities in the most priority areas. The project for preparation of the Second National Communication on climate change is a logical continual step towards further implementation of the UNFCCC at national level. Its main objective is preparing a comprehensive report on the climate change following the UNFCCC guidelines. The analysis conducted within the INC will be upgraded and extended, which will result in preparation of an advanced national report. Furthermore, it will work towards ensuring that climate change issues are not considered as separate to national and local environmental concerns by integrating climate change concerns and objectives into national and local strategic planning processes. 1.2. Purpose and Objectives One of the sectors analyzed in the framework of the Second National Communication are the water resources, which are subject to this Assessment. The main objective of the Vulnerability Assessment is to assess the vulnerability of the water resources under conditions of climate change and to propose adaptation measures for the water resources sector. The scope of work is defined in the Terms of References (Annex), as well as the expected output and contents of the Assessment. Other Assessment objectives are related to the different analyses which should be performed. Shortly they can be listed as follows: • To analyze the concerned sectors such as irrigation, water supply, hydropower for their current status and to present the future demands according to the existing planning national documents; • To assess the vulnerability of the water resources upon different river basins using the all existing data presented in the INC and including extended data on additional meteorological and hydrological stations; • To analyze the status of the three natural lakes: Ohrid, Prespa and Dojran; • To analyze the water quality deterioration due to climate change impact; • To analyze the climate change impact on the economic, social and health aspects in the country; • To propose recommendations for adaptation measures; • To prepare Draft National Action Plan. 1 2. Organization of the Assessment Work The Assessment work is organized according to the defined output and contents in the Terms of References. The Assessment is consisted of 9 Chapters: 1. Purpose and objectives of the assessment; 2. Organization of the assessment work.; 3. Participation of stakeholders (workshops); 4. Methodology or approaches used; 5. Spatial/geographical boundaries and time horizons; 6. Description of exposure units and sub-sectors studied; 7. Vulnerability Assessment; 8. Main findings and 9. Recommendations (Propose adaptation related projects and National Action Plan). 3. Participation of Stakeholders (workshops) The Final report is elaborated after discussing the main findings, adaptation measures and National Action Plan with the national stakeholders at a workshop held on November 24th in Skopje. The stakeholders recommendations are included in the Final Report. 4. Methodology and Approaches Used In order to estimate the impacts of climate change on hydrological resources in terms of water quantity and quality and estimate the socio-economic impact of climate change on both water demand and water resources management parameters, the following guidelines, handbooks and approaches have been used: • UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies; • UNFCC Handbook on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments; • IPCC technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations; • National/regional methodologies and guidelines; • Top-down approach in incorporation of climate information in water resource studies. (begins by establishing the scientific credibility of human-caused climate warming, then developing future regional climate scenarios and assessing the impacts of those potential changes on water resource systems) • Mathematical statistical methods and theory of probability. Assessment of climate change impact on meteorological parameters and hydrologic resources has been performed using empirical relationships, mathematical statistical methods and theory of probability. A predictive model based on empirical and statistical relationships is used for effective runoff assessment. An annual model developed by Turc relates precipitation and temperature to effective runoff. The analyses of the time series (hydrological, for exp. discharge) are based on mathematical statistics and theory of probability. Applied methodology is consisted of several steps explained in Chapter 7.3. in detail. Modern practice requires homogenized hydrological (and meteorological) data for any analysis and especially for solid hydrological forecasting. First phase of the hydrologic analysis of the water resources includes analysis of homogeneity and autocorrelation of the hydrological series. Then standard statistic procedure for determining the statistical parameters and trends of the series is performed. Conclusion about climate change impact on water resources has been presented too. Climate change impact on water quality has been assessed using statistical relationships (method of least squares). The same method has been applied in Assessment of climate change Impact on Social, Economic and Health Conditions. The main findings and recommendations of the Assessment are discussed with the main stakeholders on workshop. The results of these findings are presented in the Final Report. 5. Spatial/Geographical Boundaries and Time Horizons Although Macedonia is a relatively small country, different climate types are characterized over its territory. In general in one part it has continental climate, and in the other part Mediterranean, with 2 varieties between these two types. As a country made up of two distinct hydroclimatic zones it has been concluded that each hydroclimatic zone should be represented by a river basin. The Vulnerability assessment and adaptation for water resources sector has been done on a country level. The river basin is selected to be the most appropriate primary exposure unit for assessing impacts on hydrologic resources. The study area has been selected according to the hydrology, climate zones and the specific goals of the assessment defined in the ToRs. The study area is the whole territory of the Republic of Macedonia, represented by the three major river basins: river Vardar, river Crn Drim and river Strumica basin. River Vardar basin is the major one covering 80,4 % of the total territory of the country and runs in different hydroclimatic zones. River Vardar’s most important tributaries: Treska, Pcinja, Bregalnica, and Crna Reka and their river basins are also considered. This has been required in ToRs in order to analyze the climate changes impact on the available water resources in different regions of the country and to
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