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A Landscape-Based Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for All Native Hawaiian Plants

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A Landscape-Based Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for All Native Hawaiian Plants Technical Report HCSU-044 A LANDscape-bASED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMatE CHANGE VULNEraBILITY FOR ALL NatIVE HAWAIIAN PLANts Lucas Fortini1,2, Jonathan Price3, James Jacobi2, Adam Vorsino4, Jeff Burgett1,4, Kevin Brinck5, Fred Amidon4, Steve Miller4, Sam `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon III6, Gregory Koob7, and Eben Paxton2 1 Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative, Honolulu, HI 96813 2 U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Hawaii National Park, HI 96718 3 Department of Geography & Environmental Studies, University of Hawai‘i at Hilo, Hilo, HI 96720 4 U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service —Ecological Services, Division of Climate Change and Strategic Habitat Management, Honolulu, HI 96850 5 Hawai‘i Cooperative Studies Unit, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Hawai‘i National Park, HI 96718 6 The Nature Conservancy, Hawai‘i Chapter, Honolulu, HI 96817 7 USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, Hawaii/Pacific Islands Area State Office, Honolulu, HI 96850 Hawai‘i Cooperative Studies Unit University of Hawai‘i at Hilo 200 W. Kawili St. Hilo, HI 96720 (808) 933-0706 November 2013 This product was prepared under Cooperative Agreement CAG09AC00070 for the Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey. Technical Report HCSU-044 A LANDSCAPE-BASED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY FOR ALL NATIVE HAWAIIAN PLANTS LUCAS FORTINI1,2, JONATHAN PRICE3, JAMES JACOBI2, ADAM VORSINO4, JEFF BURGETT1,4, KEVIN BRINCK5, FRED AMIDON4, STEVE MILLER4, SAM ʽOHUKANIʽOHIʽA GON III 6, GREGORY KOOB7, AND EBEN PAXTON2 1 Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative, Honolulu, HI 96813 2 U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Hawaiʽi National Park, HI 96718 3 Department of Geography & Environmental Studies, University of Hawaiʽi at Hilo, Hilo, HI 96720 4 U. S. Fish & Wildlife Service—Ecological Services, Division of Climate Change and Strategic Habitat Management, Honolulu, HI 96850 5 Hawaiʽi Cooperative Studies Unit, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Hawaiʽi National Park, HI 96718 6 The Nature Conservancy, Hawai’i Chapter, Honolulu, HI 96817 7 USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, Hawaii/Pacific Islands Area State Office, Honolulu, HI 96850 Hawaiʽi Cooperative Studies Unit University of Hawaiʽi at Hilo 200 W. Kawili St. Hilo, HI 96720 (808) 933-0706 November 2013 This article has been peer reviewed and approved for publication consistent with USGS Fundamental Science Practices (http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1367/). Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ....................................................................................................................... iv List of Figures ...................................................................................................................... v Abstract ............................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 Assessing the Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change .................................................... 2 Understanding Species Responses to Changes in Climate .................................................... 3 A Response-based Definition of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change .............................. 3 Scope of Landscape-based Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment ................................... 5 Methods .............................................................................................................................. 5 Estimating the Ability of Species to Respond to Climate Change ........................................... 5 Response-based Species Vulnerability Indicator .................................................................. 6 Linking Species Distribution Models and Species Responses to Climate Change ..................... 6 Vulnerability Factors Considered in Assessment .................................................................. 7 Creation and Parameterization of Bayesian Network Based Species Vulnerability Model ....... 14 From Landscape Metrics to Climate Change Responses ..................................................... 16 Vulnerability Indicator Transformation .............................................................................. 16 Vulnerability Contrasts .................................................................................................... 16 Species Vulnerability Model Evaluation ............................................................................. 17 Species Distribution Model Methods ................................................................................. 17 Dynamic Updating of Analysis .......................................................................................... 17 Assessment Assumptions and Limitations ......................................................................... 18 Results .............................................................................................................................. 18 Model vs. Expert Comparison ........................................................................................... 18 Summary of Vulnerability Factors Across All Species .......................................................... 18 Identification of High-vulnerability Species and Taxonomic Groups ..................................... 21 Most and Least Vulnerable Genera and Families ................................................................ 24 Identification of Characteristics Associated with Vulnerable Taxa ....................................... 25 Impact of Worst and Best Habitat Quality Scenarios on Species Vulnerabilities ................... 26 Generalizing from Species-specific Results to Regional and Local Management Scale .......... 27 Correlation Analyses ........................................................................................................ 28 Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 33 General Patterns of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change .............................................. 37 Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Hawaiian Plant Species .................................... 39 iii Building a Framework to Assess Climate Change Vulnerability of Native Hawaiian Plant Species .......................................................................................................................... 40 Guidelines and Recommendations for Use of Vulnerability Assessment Results ................... 41 Future Research and Data Needs ..................................................................................... 43 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 44 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ 45 Literature Cited .................................................................................................................. 46 Appendix 1. Diagrams of complete Bayesian network models of species vulnerability to climate change .............................................................................................................................. 58 Appendix 2. Main assumptions and limitations of current vulnerability assessment ................. 63 Appendix 3. Vulnerability ranks and response probabilities to climate change for all native Hawaiian plant species. ...................................................................................................... 66 Appendix 4. List of all species with no future climate envelopes and/or no overlap between current and future climate envelope .................................................................................... 93 Appendix 5. Distributions of factors considered in vulnerability model .................................... 98 Appendix 6. Histogram distribution of the three responses considered in the analysis and the resulting vulnerability scores for all species combined .......................................................... 109 Appendix 7. Example vulnerability maps for Metrosideros polymorpha. ................................. 111 Appendix 8. Vulnerability factors and their categorized states for high/medium/low vulnerability example species ................................................................................................................ 115 Appendix 9. List of species with lost, gained, and maintained climate space between current and 2100 climate for Hanawi Natural Area Reserve, Maui, and their related vulnerability scores ... 119 Appendix 10. Characteristics associated with differences in vulnerability scores among species ........................................................................................................................................ 129 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Relationship between species responses to climate change and vulnerability indicator behavior. ............................................................................................................................. 7 Table 2. Mean values for all vulnerability factors for native Hawaiian flora. ............................ 20 Table 3.
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