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World Energy Issues Monitor 2017 World Energy Issues Monitor 2017 EXPOSING THE NEW ENERGY REALITIES ABOUT THE WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL ABOUT THE WORLD ENERGY The World Energy Council is the principal impartial ISSUES MONITOR network of energy leaders and practitioners promoting The World Energy Issues Monitor provides a snapshot of an affordable, stable and environmentally sensitive what keeps CEOs, Ministers and experts awake at night in energy system for the greatest benefit of all. over 90 countries. The monitor helps to define the world energy agenda and its evolution over time. It provides a Formed in 1923, the Council is the UN-accredited global high-level perception of what constitute issues of critical energy body, representing the entire energy spectrum, uncertainty, in contrast to those that require immediate with over 3,000 member organisations in over 90 action or act as developing signals for the future. It is countries, drawn from governments, private and state an essential tool for understanding the complex and corporations, academia, NGOs and energy stakeholders. uncertain environment in which energy leaders must We inform global, regional and national energy strategies operate, and a tool through which one can challenge by hosting high-level events including the World Energy own assumptions on the key drivers within the energy Congress and publishing authoritative studies, and work landscape. through our extensive member network to facilitate the world’s energy policy dialogue. This eighth iteration of the monitor is based on insights provided by more than 1,200 energy leaders to provide Further details at www.worldenergy.org over 35 national assessments across six regions. and @WECouncil Published by the World Energy Council 2017 Copyright © 2017 World Energy Council. All rights reserved. All or part of this publication may be used or reproduced as long as the following citation is included on each copy or transmission: ‘Used by permission of the World Energy Council’ World Energy Council Registered in England and Wales No. 4184478 VAT Reg. No. GB 123 3802 48 Registered Office 62–64 Cornhill London EC3V 3NH United Kingdom ISBN: 978 0 946121 65 6 EXPOSING THE NEW ENERGY REALITIES | 2017 FOREWORD I am pleased that participation in this year’s survey has again exceeded 1200 energy leaders; includ- ing Ministers and CEOs from over 90 countries. For the first time we have deep-dives in Algeria, Argentina, Botswana, Congo (Dem. Rep.), Dominican Republic, Ghana, Iceland, Kenya and Swaziland taking the number of national level assessments to over 35 individual countries. I would like to thank all who have taken the time to respond to the World Energy Council’s issues survey to provide the basis for our unique macro perspective of the perception changes on critical issues in the energy sector, how they change over time and differ across regions. I would also like to thank our Future Energy Leaders for their contribution. It is clear from the results that the leaders of the future rapidly embrace the new energy reality. The context at the outset of 2017 is equally defined by a challenging growth, the environmental and geopolitical backdrop and by exciting innovation on the technology and business model front. Continued uncertainty around economic growth puts pressure on China and Europe. Geopolitical complexity in all major regions is accentuated by populist protectionism, state-driven cyber ten- sions, and by uncertainty arising from a dichotomy between orchestrated oil prices and the risk of stranded fossil resources. Intensifying environmental stress around the world exposes our insuffi- cient response to coping with planetary boundaries, which place strain on infrastructure resilience. Meanwhile, technology innovation and new business models advance rural access to electricity at unprecedented speed, provide new solutions for clean energy and smart transportation, while blockchains seem to hold the key to an internet of things in energy with a promise of revolutionary system benefits. The issues monitor rp ovides a powerful illustration of some key changes highlighted in our latest scenarios and at the 2016 World Energy Congress. Firstly, the issues monitor shows commodity price uncertainty as the global number one insomnia issue impacting the decision making of energy leaders. This uncertainty is heightened by emerging concerns surrounding “peak demand” and “stranded resources”, concepts. The impact of these concepts were set out in our World Energy Scenarios report and further developed at the World Energy Congress. After the Congress, organisations including OPEC began to refer to the possibility of peak demand in oil in the next decade – which truly is the start of a new energy reality. Secondly, the issues monitor shows the increasing acceptance of lower global economic growth as a reality that needs to be managed. We have described in our scenarios that there is a possibility that driven by lower population growth and environmental stress this may become a global “new normal” – unless we deliver high productivity growth and address planetary boundaries through accelerated innovation. Thirdly, new physical and digital risks are posing ever greater threats to the energy sector. The Congress has clearly illustrated that different risks and aspects of resilience have very istinctd meaning and priorities in different egions.r The issues monitor captures this great regional variety. Cyber threats are keeping energy leaders in Europe, East Asia and North America on alert. The Energy–Water–Food nexus is among energy leaders’ top uncertainty issues in China, the Middle East, and parts of the Americas. Extreme weather events are among energy leaders’ top uncertainty issues in large parts of the Asia Pacific region, Latin America and Africa. iii Fourthly, innovation issues such as digitalisation, decentralisation, innovative market design and electric storage are the most rapidly upward moving issues. We are misled by some of these terms and the discussion of a democratisation of energy if we think this is leading to a “de-politicisation” of the energy sector. This report illustrates that at least in the short term the opposite is true: half of the world’s invested capital is sunk in energy and related infrastructure and key geo-economic relations are directly based on energy makes, which makes an energy transition hugely political and geopolitical. While priorities differ across regions, every single region has its own key geopolitical issue that is high on the agenda. This rapid increase in the importance of innovation issues highlights a new energy reality. Only three years ago, when suggesting to energy professionals that there could be “leap frogging” in energy, similar to what has happened in the telecommunications sector, the response would have suggested little understanding of energy realities. We now see hundreds of thousands of direct household solu- tions being rolled out in rural Africa without a formal supply chain and in the absence of any energy infrastructure backbone. What does leapfrogging mean, if not this? Digitisation has made it to the top tray of energy leaders in industrialised countries around the world. The need to understand the new business models that are driven by intelligence from big data and enhanced supply chain management, machine learning and automated system response, prosumer and cloud solutions and enabling energy block-chains is probably the most exciting devel- opment on the desks of energy leaders with as many visionary implications as practical unknowns. Innovative business models that reduce carbon footprint, energy costs and system risks, multidisci- plinary talent able to cope with increasing complexity, as well as robust, balanced and forward oriented policy frameworks that encourage investments are critical ingredients to success and prosperity. This report acts as a unique benchmark and reality check to enable leaders to better understand and guide the energy transformation. The findings help energy leaders shape our response to the grand energy transition and secure a sustainable and prosperous future. Christoph Frei Secretary General, World Energy Council iv TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 INTRODUCTION 7 1 ASSESSING THE GLOBAL ENERGY AGENDA 10 2 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR AFRICA 29 Africa 30 Algeria 33 Botswana 35 Democratic Republic of Congo 38 Ethiopia 41 Ghana 44 Kenya 47 Namibia 49 Nigeria 51 South Africa 53 Swaziland 55 3 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR ASIA 57 Asia 58 China 60 Japan 64 New Zealand 67 South Korea 69 4 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR EUROPE 71 Europe 72 Austria 74 Belgium 76 Estonia 78 Germany 80 Iceland 82 Italy 85 Latvia 87 Lithuania 89 Poland 91 Portugal 93 1 Serbia 95 Spain 97 Switzerland 99 United Kingdom 102 5 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 104 Latin America and the Caribbean 105 Argentina 112 Brazil 115 Colombia 120 Dominican Republic 122 6 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA 124 Middle East 125 Lebanon 127 7 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR NORTH AMERICA 130 North America 131 Canada 133 Mexico 137 8 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR THE FUTURE ENERGY LEADERS 140 9 METHODOLOGY AND PROJECT CONTRIBUTORS 144 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As the Grand Energy Transition fast becomes a reality, the minds of global energy leaders are becoming increasingly focussed on long term trends that threaten existing economic and business models rather than concerns about short term risks. Issues that will dictate the speed and the breadth of the energy transition rise to the top of the global energy agenda as government and corporate take stock of the impacts and opportunities that arise as the world goes down a path of increased decarbonisation. This includes regional integration, climate framework, electric storage, renewables, energy efficiency, electricity prices and economic growth. COMMODITY PRICES STAND OUT YET AGAIN The biggest single critical issue in terms of both high uncertainty and higher impact is commodity prices, an issue that has remained at the top of the global agenda for much of recent history.
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