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Future Proofing Cities Risks and Opportunities for Inclusive Urban Growth in Developing Countries

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Future Proofing Cities Risks and Opportunities for Inclusive Urban Growth in Developing Countries FUTURE PROOFING CITIES Risks and opportunities for inclusive urban growth in developing countries Atkins in partnership with Acknowledgements Research and Editorial Team This report was led by Atkins in partnership with The Department for International Development (DFID) and University College London (UCL). DFID Simon Ratcliffe, Energy Adviser Shailaja Annamraju, Regional Climate Change Adviser Atkins Elspeth Finch, Director Roger Savage, Associate Director Nick Godfrey, Principal Economist and Lead Author Winnie Rogers, Graphic Design Supported by: Martin Tedder, Edward Demetry and Simon Hunt UCL, Development Planning Unit Prof. Caren Levy, DPU Director Dr. Adriana Allen, Director Environmental Justice, Urbanisation and Resilience programme Dr. Vanessa Castan Broto, Lecturer Linda Westman, Researcher This report would not have been possible without support from across a wide range of organisations. Special thanks to the expert advisory group who provided invaluable advice and input throughout the course of the project: Dr. Diane Archer (IIED), Gable Bennett (Faithful+Gould), John Box (Atkins), Dr. Geoff Darch (Atkins), Dr. David Dodman (IIED, UCL), Steven Fraser (Atkins), Arif Hasan (Urban Resource Centre, Karachi), Colin Hagans (Southern Africa International Youth Foundation), Rob McSweeney (Atkins), Mohan Rao (Indian Institute for Human Settlements), Prof. Yvonne Rydin (UCL), Prof. Neil Strachan (UCL), Dr. Cecilia Tacoli (IIED), Dr. Robert Whitcombe (Atkins), and Bruno Vedor (Mozambique Architcture and Planning). Distinguished experts outside Atkins provided invaluable insights and advice. We would particularly like to thank Alice Balbo (ICLEI), Anthony Bigio (World Bank), Sam Bickerseth (CDKN), Andrew Boraine (Cape Town Partnership), Billy Cobbett (Cities Alliance), Cristina Rumbaitis Del Rio (Rockefeller Foundation), John Elkington (Volans), Dan Hoornweg (World Bank), Vijay Jagannathan (World Resources Institute), Charmian Love (Volans), Aldrin Plaza (Asian Development Bank), Andrew Steer (World Resources Institute), Florian Steinburg (Asian Development Bank), Hiroaki Suzuki (World Bank), and Konrad Otto-Zimmermann (ICLEI). We are also grateful for the contributions and support of numerous Atkins colleagues including: Richard Alvey, Jitesh Brahmkshatriya, Andrew Buckley, Darron Cox, Tony Chan, Claire Danby, Tom Evans, Zoe Green, Lindsay Farmer, Paul Fraser, Neil Fraser, Mark Harrison, Susana Halliday, Sara Lipscombe, Janet Miller, Emma Newman, Sarah Richards, Nick Roberts, Praveen Sridharan, Neil Thomas, David Tonkin, Andy Winstanley, and Mike Woolgar. This project was financed by the UK Department for International Development (DFID). However, the views presented in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of DFID or the project steering group. The authors wish to thank DFID and other stakeholders who were consulted in the preparation of this report for their comments, suggestions and insights. The authors take full responsibility for any errors or omissions contained in the report. This report contributes to Atkins’ mission to help support our partners develop the cities of the future. Our work in this field is led by Atkins’ Futures Director, Elspeth Finch and Cities Director, Richard Alvey. FUTURE PROOFING CITIES Risks and opportunities for inclusive urban growth in developing countries ii | Future Proofing Cities Atkins in partnership with About the project partners The project was led by Atkins in partnership with the Development Planning Unit (DPU) at University College London and the Department for International Development (DFID). The Department for International Development (DFID) The Department for International Development (DFID) leads the UK government’s fight against world poverty. Through its network of offices throughout the world, DFID works with governments of developing countries, charities, non government organisations, businesses and international organisations, like the United Nations, European Commission and the World Bank, to eliminate global poverty and its causes. DFID’s work forms part of a global promise, the eight UN Millennium Development Goals, for tackling elements of global poverty by 2015. DFID’s Climate and Environment Department (CED) is helping to establish DFID as a world leader in demonstrating results, impact and value for money from supporting developing countries to tackle climate change. CED’s goal is to demonstrate that low-carbon, climate resilient and sustainable development is necessary and achievable. Atkins Atkins is one of the world’s leading infrastructure and design companies, with the depth and breadth of technical expertise to respond to the world’s most complex infrastructure and environmental challenges. These include responding to the increasing rate of urbanisation and the urgent transition to a low carbon economy. Atkins works with municipal authorities, national and regional government, development agencies, private sector companies, and other stakeholders to develop and implement strategic plans and investment projects to shape and manage the future growth of cities. With over 17,000 employees worldwide, Atkins is able to bring together its technical knowledge across a wide range of disciplines such as transport, water, energy, design, architecture, climate science, ecology, planning, and economics to help cities and those investing in them to act upon the long term opportunities and challenges of resource use and a changing climate. Our international work spans Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and North America. Through our ‘Carbon Critical’ initiative Atkins has developed a range of bespoke tools to reduce the carbon emissions associated with major urban infrastructure programmes including a low carbon Masterplanning tool to reduce city carbon footprints. University College London: Development Planning Unit UCL is one of only three UK universities in the top 20 in the 2011 Shanghai Jiao Tong world rankings, and in the latest research assessment exercise UCL was rated third overall in the UK after Oxford and Cambridge. The Barlett Development Planning Unit (DPU) is internationally recognised for its academic and professional contributions in relation to city development in the developing world in active collaboration with partner institutions and researchers in the Global South. It is concerned with promoting sustainable forms of development, understanding rapid urbanisation and encouraging innovation in the policy, planning and management responses to the economic, social and environmental development of urban areas, giving emphasis to social justice, participatory local governance and poverty reduction. The key distinctive features of the DPU are its commitment to action research and its focus on rapidly urbanising areas in the developing world. The DPU maintains a wide network of partner organisations in Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa and South and Southeast Asia working on sustainable cities. 00 Forewords iii Executive Summary ix Introduction to report xviii 01 WHY FUTURE PROOF CITIES? What do we mean by Future Proofing Cities? 01 Now is the time to act 04 Why future proof? 08 Summary 09 02 THE DIFFERENT RISKS facING CITIES Introduction 13 The environmental risks relevant to cities 14 Five urban types 20 Tracking risks over time 42 Summary 43 03 VULNERABILITY AND capacITY OF CITIES TO RESPOND TO RISKS Introduction 47 Moving from risk to impact and opportunity 49 Urban vulnerability 50 Ability of cities to act 58 Summary 71 04 OPPORTUNITIES FOR URBAN FUTURE PROOFING Introduction 75 An integrated approach for responding to risks 76 Policies applicable to different urban types 78 Targeting vulnerabilities and supporting economic development 93 The capacity required to implement solutions 96 Maximising impact and value for money 100 Creating integrated policy portfolios 104 Future development pathways 107 Progress to date and other barriers to action 108 Summary 109 05 MAIN MESSAGES AND RECOMMENDATIONS 113 06 BIBLIOGRAPHY 123 07 APPENDIX: TECHNICAL NOTES 135 CONTENTS ii | Future Proofing Cities Atkins in partnership with Future Proofing Cities | iii Forewords From the project partners We have now crossed the threshold where more than Cities are complex and they need integrated responses half of the world’s people live in cities. Rapid urbanisation to the challenges and risks they face. The growing in Africa and Asia will expand existing cities and see number of urban poor is a concern for the Department the emergence of new ones. This will place strains for International Development and we have a range of on infrastructure and potentially create social and programmes that will contribute to the efforts to improve environmental problems putting many people at risk. the lives of people in urban areas. This report will help us to keep on improving on what we do and makes The Future Proofing Cities report makes a powerful case clear that “future proofing” has significant social and for acting now to take advantage of the opportunities economic co-benefits. that come from cities. By recognising the risks, cities can avoid some of the mistakes that have been made in many I am pleased that DFID has supported the production developed countries and respond to the challenges of the of this report and I am confident that it will help us future. to deepen our dialogue with decision-makers as they manage, plan and “future proof” the cities of tomorrow. This report contains not just analysis but practical
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