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B-Ulgaria Power Demand and Supply Options RqepoNo. 11610-BUL B-ulgaria PowerDemand and Supply Options Public Disclosure Authorized June22, 1993 industryand Energy Operations Division CountryDepartment I ICR~OGRAPHICS Europeand Central Asia Region R~eport No: 11610 BUL FOROFFICIAL USE ONLY Type: SEC Public Disclosure Authorized \~~~~~~~~~~A Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Thlsocuerttasresricd distribuonan'd'may- be used byreczpie4ts ht~1fS~O~Odw ObtVrld BankautOrwization.. CURRECltYBt Currencyunit - 1 (plmu levy),abbrev. Lv US$1 - 21 avenge 1992 US$1= 23.2 - 23.5. Lv. esL avempg1992 ME AND EOUIVALENT k (kllo) 10ILevy (Watt econd) = Jouloe(J) M (1y) = 10 J = 0.239cm! G(giga) -10' kol - 3.9688BTU T(tema) = 1012 kWb = 3.8MI A = Aem TOE = 10.2 cGal v = Volt TCE = 7.00cam W =Watt Mete(m) - 3.28 fet J = Joule Kilomter (k) - 0.6214mile eam = caloie Kilogram(kg) = 2.2 pounds TOE = ton of oilequivalent Metricton (t) = 2,205pounds TCB = ton of coalequivaet BTU = Britishthermal unit CEC Comision f pe Commities CMEA Counil of MuWa cnmic Ass COE Co i of Energy COM Councilof iniste COMGEOCommittee of Geolo andMiner Resources CEHP CombinedHeat and Power IB Eurpea InvestmentBank BiRD Eu Bankfor R s n and Developmeat ESS EnergyStrategy Study (Report 10143 Bul) FCMA Forner Councilof MutualEconomic As (CMEA)Block POD Fuel GasD df PSU FormerSoviet Union LAEA In l AlomicEnergy Agecy IRA EnergyAcy IPS In d PowerSystem (of CMEA) MOP Miisty of Finne NDC Nainal DispatchCeOter NEK NationalElectric Company SAR StaffAppmisd Repot UCPTE Unionfor the Coornation of Productionand Transportof Electricity (WestEurpean Gid) UDF Unionof DemocraticForces USAID US Agencyfor Intmetiond Delopment USTDA USTrade andDevelop_me Agency WANO WoddAsoi tion of Nucear Opeto WASP WienAutomed SystemPlanning Model SCALYEAR January1 - December31 FOROMCIL USEONLY POW-ERDE5MAND AND SLUM DE=lN At the requestof the Groupof the Sn Indusized counties (G-7)and wih the agr_emm of the Governmentof Bugaria, a joint Elnerg Agec QEA)- WorldBank mission rsited Bulgadriafrom Novmber 7 to 20, 1992to prepar a studywhich would msempower sector stages and ficig iin order to emurethe reliablesupply of electricityif or when nuclear fkacilidesare scud for modificationsor shutdown for saety reasm. 'he mission consistedof: A. Kocic (MissionLeader); J. Mooe (Economist);L. Mltov (WorldBank Resident Mission);G. Kadatur and S. Virmani(Consitants from the World Bank);J. Piersor ([EA team leader);and A. Wheeler(Consutant from the IEA). Thereport was wrken by A. Kocic ad J. Moose at the WorldBank in closecooperation with 1. Piersonat the MEAand withconibuons fiom other teammembers. Mr. L. Radulov,at that dme Presdent of the Committeeof Energy(COB), prvided overallsupport and guidae whileMr. DiankoDobwev, Chairm of the Mangi Board of NEK, manged the coordinaionof workby NEK. Th managementand staffof COE,NEK, Bnegoproekt, the Committeefor PeacefulUses of AtomicEnergy, and EQE-International,actively paicipated in the work of the mission. The first draft of the studywas prepaed in March 1993.based on the findingsof the mission. The draft wasdicussed withthe Bulgaria authoritiesin March/April1993. Followingthese discussions,the studywas revised. The data on costs for saoftyupgrades at tie nuclearunis used in th report were provided by NEK with the assistance of otie consultants. They differ somewhat from the nuclear safetycost dataused In the SummaryReport psented to th G-7,which were provided later by EBRD. The differences,however, are not large and do not affectthe overl conclusions. Thisdocument has a resictod distbution .ad may be usedby recipientsonly in the performance of their offcia duties.Its contentsmay not otherwisebe disclosedwithout World Dank guthorization. L 4bl4AMCONCLUMONS .... 44. .. ... e......... 1 . Bw d .. ..................... ........ 4.. B. ehc ....r . ........................................ .. M ENERGY MOR OfB y........... .............. *..... 8S A. Bwiod d..........**.***..*****.** ..... *** .** ..... **.*** ...... 8 D. SW"Dei ndSi numin................. ...... .... ... ... .... 1 C. PfiZSupplof d a........u ................ .............. D. Enm d cdont . ......... 19 EL ELCltllRICrYDMIN *4--e--v.-.-.............................................- 14 A. O vi .. ....... ....... ............... 14 D. RoOuDceawrulp ..... ... ................. 14 C Wa ouz..G.s. .................... 24 D. LaMmautiouaW.a. ............................ 2516 maud SideiMuKg ........................................... 16 Sup*eSier rangt .......................... ............2.17 Naa CTmndml ................... ....... ............. 18 IV. POWER SE r REVl .m ......................................... 31 A.I. ................... ...... ....... .... 3 C. PuayF cR.for Pww Q_ . ............................. 20 Co .......................................... ,o........... 20 N^ud"Pudt ............................................ 24 NaUun Oa ................................ o....... t ... ? C Gmatie_ qoct................. ........... ........... 2S NucaPoweP Plants.. .....25 . in Pow wPas,Dbtrict BHead dPlaits d aiddC ihl.u..Pl.n..........._ Phob .... 2s 3Hy pmw.............................................. PI. 29 D. T"unosmiuaiaaSyTrsna m sdndbPe uE..u............ ................. ... 31 TI 14 on'Transisbd^m SYM . o*o. *............... ....................... 31 Covd edsne4OW220V bomW syil "S".................... ...................... 31 . ste IPnYmn liusdiy dh Eba" ................................ 31 V. M... we NAst ADis =ct ng.a..................u........ ..... 33 A. sI pi. 24233u ........................................ 33 & Rems .......... .*... o ... o o . ..... o .... 37 C FfuimoA^xxS .................. ............ 44 1. NUCUWPOWOC Phu" 3. HydqpowerPnt 4. Tra-sm san SydbmSWnMd PNoyxUR S. SydmPWgRaB 6. Bapoweoglof iDabbt Hodio# _d bdosrdd C"m _ on P MAU. IBRD No 24233R BuLaa Po-WDMN AND SUPPLY OE=) Ush 1992 0-7 summitin Munich requesd the Wodd Bank, with the t oe hlomadod 1EnergyAgency (lEA), to produce a study of alternive ene surces to replac the less sf nucloar plants (VVER 440 model 230s, RBMKs)In Eastern Euro: e and the firme Soviet Union. This study b specifically of the atative ergy sources in Bulgar, whih has 4 VVER 440 model 230 nucear unit (uni 1-4), at Its Kozody nula plat with 1760 MW of go gent caacity. Tleb unit repnt about 1S% of Bugriaas g capacity, but typically 20-25% of generation, sinc they ae b load units. Kozloduyalo has 2 VVER 1000 nudea uni (uni S and 6), each with 1000MW of geneatingcapacity representing an additional17% of capacity. This repot ams that any nuciear power unakwhich condties to operat over an extendedperiod, undertk ma or Wivesme to upgade nuclr saft. The report then ass alt tivo detricity supply option and their associatedcosts if Bulgariawe tD shut dow some or all of its nuclearpower iits under variousacceleated meles stead of underking thes major nuclear safety upgrades. The feasibility of ealy cosure of ths nudea plant b dendt on th abffityof Bulgra tW: (1) obta reliable and econDomicenergy supplies (most o which wud be Impoted) to metd fhti demand_ (2) finance internally or obtain extera financingfor te investmentsin nuclear saety and non-nucea generatingunits which would be required; and (3) managethe shon lead tm requird for iestment selection, financingaragement, design and constuction. t is also dependenton the countrys willingnessto pay the costs ivolved in nuclear sfety upgrades and replacementof nuclear power by alatives. Six nuclearelecticity supplyscenaios, scenarios0 to 5, were developedby tie Bulgaian Govenment for adysis purpoes. lhe scenariosrange from shuttingdown all nuclear units incuding the VVER 1000sImmiately (sio 0) tO nning all unit to the and of their design lives after safety upgradng (sceao 5). The other scnarios, 14, are In betweenand invole vaous closu dates for the 4 VVER 440s rging from closing all 4 of these units I ditely, but coning to rtn the VVER 100s to the nd of ther design lives after safety upgrades (sc io 1), to closiog units 1 and 2 in 1998 and saowing udts 3 and 4, as well as the VVER 1000sto contie operat to the end of their design lives after safety upgrades (scenarIo4). Also, three electricitydemand foreasts for the period 1993 to 2010 (minmum, medium and maxim) were agreed between the Bugariwn Govenet, the Bank and the IMA. e mediumfoes is generallyused by the BulgarianGovrnent for its planning puroe while the minmum or low forecast, which assumesconsiderable demand sde management,is based prmariy on work done by the Bank The maximumor high case was agreed upon as an upper limit The six nuclear supply scenaios coubined with the tee demand forecasts create 18 possible cas, for each of which a least cost electricity supply plan was developed. The main conclusios fom the analysis are: (1) it does not appear to be eoonomically feasibleto close the VVER 1000 units at Koloduy (the safer unis) ough these shoid underg ay upgradin, (2) the least cost electricitysupply option for Bulgariais to run all of the nuclearunits tohe end of their designlives after safety upgrading;(3) it would be tecdnicallyfeaible for Bulgada to teplace som or arl of the VVER 440s (the less safe unit) with alteative electricitysupplies and ene sving mueasm-sby the mid to late 1990s; (4) there are several relativelylow cost eletricity sly alternives in Bulgada the most important of which is probably use of highly efficient gs-fired combined cycle generatin uni espcay in existing dis'rlct heatng ad industrial generting plants; nd (5) the addion cost of replacigfthe VVER
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