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Doctoral Dissertation Policy Analysis of MRT Development Impacts On Doctoral Dissertation Policy Analysis of MRT Development Impacts on Commuting Mode Choice SITI MAIMUNAH Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation Hiroshima University September 2015 Policy Analysis of MRT Development Impacts on Commuting Mode Choice D122540 SITI MAIMUNAH A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation of Hiroshima University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy September 2015 ABSTRACT Jakarta as one the most congested cities in the world has modestly estimated to loss 5.6 billion USD a year, which accounts for approximately 5% of GRDP of Jakarta. The growth rate of vehicles continues to be much greater than that of transport infrastructure provisions. To mitigate the congestion while addressing both the travel demand and supply in Jakarta, Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) has been constructed and it is expected to be operated in 2020. MRT as a mass public transport has a big capacity and railway based system that gives some benefits such as not facing congestion, and environmental friendly since using the electricity as the energy source. The main target of MRT is to attract the private commuters to shift to MRT. The main objective of this research is to provide analytical results of commuters’ behaviors and preferences on transportation mode choices, if the development of MRT would be successfully completed, and its benefits to the economic and environmental improvement. The choice experiment approach to analyzing the travel behavior change in response to hypothetical choice experiment is the method. Repeated choice experiments for private vehicle commuters in Jakarta on preferences if they would be willing to shift to the MRT once it becomes available, have been conducted before and after removal of the fuel subsidy. The main target respondents are the commuters who use private vehicles as the main transport for daily commuting. Before knowing the future commuters’ behaviors, the research is started by understanding the current commuters’ behaviors and attitudes in choosing the transport modes for daily commuting. By knowing current behaviors and attitudes, it can reflect the result in future and it can affect the future commuters’ behaviors. The method used is descriptive analysis through tabulation and chi-square test and multinomial logit model to know the determinant factors in choosing current transport mode. The main findings of first chapter are the characteristics of commuters in Jakarta have been changed within the last six years in term of education, income and the distance in commute. The higher the income, cars are preferable and surprisingly motorcycles are chosen by commuters in all the income ranges. The main reasons for using cars and motorcycles are more comfortable, more flexible and could save the time especially for motorcycles. However, the commuters will avoid using cars or motorcycles if the traffic congestion is getting worse and the parking space is limited and also put high charge. To analyze the future commuters’ preferences on transport mode choices once MRT successfully completed under different policy scenarios is the main objective. Balancing conflicting policies are important. Fuel subsidy is such policy that hampers potential impacts of MRT being currently under construction. The mixed logit models revealed that scale of impacts on probability to shift to MRT due to the subsidy removal is significantly large compared to that of the best available feasible options for MRT service improvements. Moreover, this effect is leveraged by joint implementation with road pricing and more the impact is expected for car commuters than motorcycle commuters. However, after the actual implementation of fuel subsidy removal, more motorcycle commuters are willing to shift compared to the hypothetical scenario of the fuel subsidy removal. i In addition, by providing MRT it can give the economic and environmental benefits. The total economic value that can be generated from car and motorcycle is maximum 0.9 million USD and it is increased after the fuel subsidy was removed to be 1 million USD. Shifting from cars or motorcycles to use MRT also can reduce the CO2 emission. Under the assumptions that MRT will be operated electric based and the CO2 emission is negligible, the shifting of commuters from cars and motorcycles can reduce the CO2 emission by 10.67% per year and using the year 2013 as the base year. Morover, because of fuel subsidy removal, the reduction of CO2 emission will be 13.28% per year. ii LIST OF ABBREVATION Bodetabek Bogor Depok Tangerang Bekasi BRT Bus Rapit Transit CBD Central Business District CO2 Corbon Dioxide CS Consumer Surplus DKI Daerah Khusus Ibukota (Special Capital Region) FGD Focus Group Discussion FS Fuel subsidy removal under Scenario FSR Fuel Subsidy Removal GHG Green House Gas GoI Government of Indonesia GRDP Gross Regional Domestic Product IIA Independent from Irrelevant Alternative ITDP The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy ITS Intelligent Transport System Jabodetabek Jakarta Bogor Depok Tangerang Bekasi JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JP Joint Policy between Road Pricing and Fuel Subsidy removal LCGC Low Cost Green Car LRT Light Rapit Transit ML Mixed Logit MNL Multinomial Logit MoT Ministry of Transportation, Republic Indonesia MRT Mass Rapit Transit NLFS National Labor Force Survey NSS National Socio-economic Survey RP Road Pricing TDM Transport Demand Management TSM Transport Supply Management TT Travel time WTP Willingness to Pay iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation is the result of a research on the “Policy Analysis of MRT Development Impacts on Commuting Mode Choices” as a requirement for the Doctoral program of International Development and Cooperation Study in Development Policy, at the Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University. I would like to express my profound gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Shinji KANEKO for his invaluable support, encouragement, supervision and useful suggestions throughout this research work. His moral support and continuous guidance enabled me to complete my work successfully. I am also highly thankful to my sub supervisors, Prof. Masaru ICHIHASHI and Prof. Akimasa FUJIWARA for their valuable suggestions throughout my study. The big appreciation also goes to Prof. Yuichiro YOSHIDA for all his support in writing a paper. My gratitude is also expressed to Associate Prof. Daisaku GOTO and Assistant Professor Yutaka ITO for all constructive comments and suggestions in our joint lab seminar. I thank also to Prof. Shunsuke MANAGI for all your constructive inputs of my papers as well as my dissertation. I would like to express my appreciation to MEXT Japan who gave financial support for my doctoral program. I am also very grateful to Atsuko Hiroishi who always helps me to take care the administration things during my study. I am also thankful to all Kaneko Lab’ members for their time sharing and enjoying our laboratory life during my study. I also want to thank my office, Research and Technology Development Unit of Ministry of Transportation to allow me to pursue my PhD. Special thanks goes to Bapak L. Denny Siahaan who always encourages me to continue my study and helped me a lot during the preparation of my study. Last, but not the least, I am deeply indebted to my family, and a special recognition goes to my husband, Ahmad Ghozali, and my children, Nabilla Nafisatuz Zahrah and Ahmad Daffa Afifi, for the continuous love and support that they give me. iv CONTENT ABSTRACT .................................................................................................... i LIST OF ABBREVATION .......................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................... iv CONTENT ....................................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLE .......................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURE.......................................................................................... ix 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Motivation ....................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Research Objective .......................................................................................................... 3 1.4 Research Timeframe ........................................................................................................ 3 1.5 Research Boundary ......................................................................................................... 5 1.6 Outline of Dissertation Report ....................................................................................... 5 2.1 Review of Transportation Policies in Jakarta ................................................................ 7 2.1.1 Provision of mass public transports ..................................................................... 7 2.1.2 “3 in 1” system...................................................................................................... 11 2.1.3 Parking management ........................................................................................... 11 2.1.4 The Macro Transportation
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