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Renewable Energy Futures to 2050: Current Thinking 2050年へ向けた自然エネルギーの将来：最新の考え方 Dr. Eric Martinot Report Author, REN21 Renewables Global Futures Report Senior Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (Tokyo) エリック・マーティノー博士 REN21 世界自然エネルギー未来白書 著者 環境エネルギー政策研究所 研究部長 http://www.ren21.net/gfr http://www.isep.or.jp/gfr http://www.martinot.info/gfr RENEWABLES GLOBAL FUTURES REPORT 2013 RENEWABLES 2005 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT Paper prepared for the REN21 Network by The Worldwatch Institute www.ren21.net Lead Author: Eric Martinot RENEWABLES 2012 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 2012 014 01 GLOBAL MARKET AND INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Renewable energy in 2010 supplied an estimated 16.7% follows provides more detailed coverage of market and of global final energy consumption. Of this total, an industry developments and trends by technology. estimated 8.2% came from modern renewable energy— iii of many renewable energy and modern biomass.1i (See Figure 1.) Traditional During the period from end-2006 through 2011, total counting hydropower, wind, solar, geothermal, biofuels, global installed capacity technologies grew at very rapid rates. Solar photovolta- biomass, which is used primarily for cooking and heating ii ics (PV) grew the fastest of all renewable technologies in rural areas of developing countries, and could be during this period, with operating capacity increasing an considered renewable, accounted for approximately average of 58% annually. It was followed by concentrat- 8.5% of total final energy. (See Rural Renewable Energy ing solar thermal power (CSP), which increased almost section for more on traditional biomass.) Hydropower 2 37%, growing from a small base, and wind power, which supplied about 3.3% of global final energy consumption, increased 26%. (See Figure 2.) For the first time ever, in and hydro capacity is growing steadily from a large base. iv 2011 solar PV accounted for more new electric generat- All other modern renewables provided approximately 3 ing capacity in the European Union than did any other 4.9% of final energy consumption in 2010, and have technology. been experiencing rapid growth in many developed and developing countries alike. someDemand biomass is also fuels. increasing4 rapidly for solar thermal heat systems, geothermal ground-source heat pumps, and Modern renewable energy can substitute for fossil fuels The growth of liquid biofuels has in four distinct markets: power generation, heating and been mixed in recent years, with biodiesel production cooling, transport fuels, and rural/off-grid energy ser- 5 expanding in 2011, and ethanol stable or down slightly vices. This section provides an overview of recent market compared with 2010. Hydropower and geothermal and industry developments in the first three sectors; power are growing globally at rates of 2–3% per year, rural/off-grid energy in developing countries is covered for fossil fuels.6 making them more comparable with global growth rates in the Rural Renewable Energy section. The section that In several countries, however, the growth FIGURE 1. Renewable ENERGY SHARE OF Global FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION, 2010 Biomass/solar/ geothermal hot water/heating 3.3% Hydropower 3.3% Wind/solar/biomass/ geothermal power generation 0.9% Global energy Biofuels 0.7% Nuclear 2.7% Fossil fuels 80.6% Source: See Endnote 1 for this section. i - Endnotes are numbered by section and begin on page 135. ii - Biomass plays a critical role in meeting rural energy demand in much of the developing world. There is debate about the sustainability of traditionalSpecial Report biomass, on Renewable and some Energy people Sources (although and theyClimate may Change be in the Mitigation minority) do not consider it to be renewable. For information about the environmental and health impacts of traditional biomass,World see H. Energy Chum Assessment:et al., “Bioenergy,” Energy in and Intergovernmental the Challenge of Sustainability Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC), (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2011), and John P. Holdren et al., “Energy, the Environment, and Health,” in (New York: United Nations Development Programme, 2000). REPORT STATUS 2012 GLOBAL RENEWABLES iii - The following sections include energy data where possible but focus mainly on installed and operating capacity data. See Note on 21 Accounting and Reporting on page 167. iv - The use of “European Union,” or “EU” throughout refers specifically to the EU-27. 014 n POWER SECTOR more than one-third, and non-hydro renewables for more 22 China again led the world in the instal- Renewables accounted for almost half of the estimated lation of wind turbines and was the top hydropower 208 GW of new electric capacity installed globally in thanproducer one-fifth. and leading manufacturer of solar PV modules 2011.12 In fact, non-hydro renewables have accounted in 2011. Hydropower generation declined by 3.5% for a larger and larger share of new electric capacity over relative to 2010, but wind power generation increased by the past several years, rising from 10% in 2004 to about 48.2% during the year.23 37% in 2011, while their share of total global generating capacity has more than doubled during this period.13 In the United States, renewables accounted for 12.7% Total renewable power capacity worldwide exceeded of net electricity generation in 2011 (up from 10.4% in 1,360 GW in 2011, up about 8% from 2010.14 Non-hydro 2010), with the largest share from hydropower. Non- renewables exceeded 390 GW, a 24% capacity increase hydro renewables generated 4.7% of total net electricity, 24 over 2010.15 Globally, wind and solar PV accounted up from 4% in 2010 and 3.7% in 2009. Renewable for almost 40% and 30% of new renewable capacity, energy made up an estimated 39% of national electric respectively, followed by hydropower (nearly 25%).16 capacity additions in 2011, with most of this from wind (See Reference Table R1.) power, and 11.6% of cumulative electric capacity at year’s end.25 Further, all renewables accounted for about By the end of 2011, operating renewable capacity com- 11.8% of U.S. primary energy production (compared prised more than 25% of total global power generating with nuclear’s 10.6% share), up from 10.9% in 2010.26 capacity (estimated at 5,360 GW by end-2011) and sup- The number of U.S. states that generate more than 10% plied an estimated 20.3% of global electricity, with most of their electricity from non-hydro renewable energy has of this provided by hydropower.17 i (See Figure 3.) While increased from two to nine over the past decade.27 renewable capacity rises at a rapid rate from year to year, renewable energy’s share of total generation is increas- In Germany, all renewable sources met about 12.2% of ing more slowly because much of the renewable capacity relies on variable sources, such as wind and solar energy, of electricity consumption (up from 17.2% in 2010 and 16.4%total final in 2009), energy generating consumption more and electricity accounted than for nuclear,20% 28 fossil fuel capacity.18 At the same time, in some countries Of the nearly 122 and because many countries continue to add significant TWh generated with renewable sources during 2011, the electricity generation from variable resources has hard coal, or gas-fired power plants. reached impressive record peaks, meeting high shares wind energy accounted for the largest share (38.1%), of national power demand and positively affecting spot followed by biomass (30.3%), hydropower (16%), and 29 market prices via the merit order effect.19 solar PV (15.6%). Including hydropower, China, the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Germany (followed closely by India) were the top countries for total installed renewable electric capacity by the end of 2011. The top countries for non- FIGURE 3. ESTIMATED RENEWABLE ENERGY hydro renewable power capacity were China, the United States, Germany, Spain, and Italy, followed closely by SHARE OF GLOBAL ELECTRICITY India, with Japan a distant seventh.20 Among these coun- PRODUCTION, 2011 tries, the ranking on a per-person basis put Germany Fossil fuels and nuclear 79.7% China, and India.21 (See Top Five Table on page 19 for otherfirst, followed rankings; by see Spain, also Italy,Figure the 4, United page 25, States, and Reference Japan, Table R2.) By region, the EU was home to approximately Hydro- power 15.3% 44% of global non-hydro renewable capacity at the end of 2011, and the BRICS nations accounted for almost Other 5.0% 26%; their share has been increasing in recent years, but renewables virtually all of this capacity is in China, India, and Brazil. (non-hydro) China ended 2011 with more renewable power capacity total, passing the United States for total installed non- hydropowerthan any other capacity. nation, China or about had one-fifth an estimated of the 70 world’s GW not including hydropower (mostly wind power), and 282 GW Source: See with hydropower. Of the 90 GW of electric capacity newly Note: Based on renewable generating capacity in operation at Endnote 17 for year-end 2011. this section. installed during the year, all renewables accounted for RENEWABLES 2012 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT STATUS 2012 GLOBAL RENEWABLES from the totals. For more information, see Note on Accounting and Reporting on page 167. 23 i - Global hydropower data and thus total renewable energy statistics in this report reflect an effort to remove capacity of pure pumped storage 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BY TECHNOLOGY – WIND POWER WIND POWER FIGURE 17. WIND POWER TOTAL WORLD CAPACITY, 1996–2011 Gigawatts 238 250 225 198 200 175 159 150 121 125 94 100 74 75 59 39 48 50 31 13.6 17.4 24 25 6.1 7.6 10.2 Source: 0 See Endnote 1 for this section.

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